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AIMES: Analysis, Integration and Modelling of the Earth System Peter Cox Co-Chair of AIMES AIMES Scientific Steering Committee Refugee from 70’s Sander van der Lueew Duarte Costa Gilberto Gallopin Tim Lenton Pati Pinho Victor Brovkin Marko Scholze Bala Govindaswamy Jae Edmonds Taka Hirata Ana Paula Aguia Lisa Alexander Kathy Hibbard Kiyoshi Takahashi Mark Rounsevell Almut Arneth Dave Schimel AIMES Tools & Expertise Integrated Assessment Modelling Land-Use Change Climatic Extremes Model-Data Fusion Earth System Observations Earth System Modelling Tipping Points Impacts of Geoengineering AIMES Themes Ø Monitoring & Predicting Earth System Change. Introduction à Highlights à Collaborations 2012 Highlights: Model Comparison – Phytoplankton distributions obtained from different mechanisms Similar total Phyto. Biomass & Bloom Timing, but different Diatom distribution, due to different growth limitation mechanism Diatom Biomass Nanoplankton Diatom Nanoplankton Diatom Nanoplankton Diatom Nanoplankton Diatom Domination Domination Domination Domination Domination Domination Domination Domination Phyto Biomass Bloom Timing PISCES NEMURO PlankTOM CCSM/BEC Max Chla [mg/m3] Provided by T. Hashioka (JAMSTEC) Nutrient Vmax Light Hashioka et al., in press AIMES Themes Ø Monitoring & Predicting Earth System Change. Ø Human-Environment Coupling. Climate Change Projection IMPACTS IPCC WG2 CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE IMPACTS ON THE ECONOMY IPCC WG1 GHG EMISSIONS IPCC WG3 SOCIOECONOMICS Simple Climate-Economy Model Background CO2 Emissions Growth-rate of 1% and 4% Without climate impacts on economy Economic Depression due to Environmental change Kellie & Cox,2011 Simple Climate-Economy Model Kellie & Cox,2011 AIMES Themes Ø Monitoring & Predicting Earth System Change. Ø Human-Environment Coupling. Ø Planet Earth as a Complex System. Tipping Points (Lenton et al., 2008) Map of potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system, updated from ref. 5 and overlain on global population density Lenton T. M. et.al. PNAS 2008 Stability, Sensitivity and Variability Stable Equilibrium Less Stable Equilibrium Small Sensitivity to Forcing Short and Fast Oscillations Larger Sensitivity to Forcing Long and Slow Oscillations Detectable Precursors of Tipping Points ? Dakos et al., 2008; Scheffer et al., 2009 Are we looking in the wrong place for tipping points? What can AIMES offer to TWI2050? Ø Knowledge of tipping points and tipping point precursors. Ø Expertise spanning “complex” Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models. Ø Techniques for Model-Data Fusion. Ø Decadal prediction of the human-environment system? Ø Feedback control modelling to inform adaptive policies? Is Decadal Prediction the answer to “Hiatus” problems? Roberts et al., 2015 Keenlyside et al., 2008