Download VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN MEXICAN ARID

VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN MEXICAN ARID REGIONS: THE CASE OF SINALOA
By: Viviana Barquero
Global Change Workshop
Dr. Tim Finan
Spring, 2012
Climate change vulnerability and the adaptive capacity of each specific region are due to multiple
factors; from a household’s economic and social conditions, to the political and environmental problems
of the whole livelihood system. Mexico within its social and economic variety has been studied
throughout the years to understand how vulnerable it is to possible climate change effects. The
Secretary of State through the National Disaster Prevention Center (CENAPRED) has created a national
risk atlas in which determines the possible zones exposed primarily to cyclones, earthquakes,
meteorological droughts and floods. This is a national effort but still misses the regional and local
perspective.
Scholars from national and international institutions have been interested in how climate would affect
agricultural livelihoods. What regards to arid regions, it has been mainly focused in determine how
droughts and water scarcity would enhance vulnerability, not only in rural but in urban livelihoods.
Studies have been made primarily in Sonora (LIVERMAN, 1994), due to its proximity to the American
border, and other states such as Puebla, Oaxaca and Chiapas (SALDAÑA-ZORRILLA, 2008), which are
considered among the poorest states at national level. It makes sense to analyze vulnerability in both
poor states and those who have extreme climate conditions; but what about the rest of the country, is it
that climate change would not have impact in there, or is it that due to its adaptive capacity those are
not considered at risk?
To understand and try to answer these questions it is for this paper’s interest to explore in a regional
level how climate variability has changed livelihoods by analyzing its vulnerability and adaptive capacity
throughout the sustainable livelihood system framework (CARNEY, 1998). In order to do that, this
research will be focusing in the state of Sinaloa, not only because it is considered a semi-arid region
susceptible to constant meteorological drought, but mainly due to the lack of research found among this
specific topic despite its economic and social importance agriculture activities represent to Mexico.
INTRODUCTION
Climate variability is a term usually to define anomalies in climate patterns in a specific location or time
period. When these anomalies become unusual and harmful are considered among Climate Change
parameters. According to the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) definition, climate
change is “a statically significant variation on the mean state of the climate or its variability, persisting
for an extended period (…) may be caused by natural internal processes or external forces or by
persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or land use”.
Climate change is considered a hazard when affect vulnerable subjects. Through sustainability research,
many scholars argue that vulnerability is “a coupled human-environment system interaction which has
the potential to do harm when the system is exposed to a hazard” (TURNER et al. 2003). Meanwhile
García Acosta (2005) argues a social construction toward disaster, provoked by poverty, exclusion, lack
of planning strategies and corruption. Preexistent conditions of vulnerability cause risk and natural
hazards increase this vulnerability at the extent of a disaster. Following Blaikie et al. (1996), Vera (2005)
analyzes social vulnerability as the lack of access to basic needs, absence in the decision taking processes
as well as economic and political participation.
Therefore vulnerability could be defined as the grade of exposure and fragility of a livelihood system. A
hazard could be defined as the probability of a natural event with enough intensity to produce damage
in an exposed –vulnerable- livelihood system. The conjunction among vulnerability and hazard in a
system could be considered risk.
VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN MEXICO
Mexico by itself presents extreme climate variability conditions (droughts in the North, floods in the
South), but when climate change projections take into account these conditions become increasingly
adverse. Therefore vulnerability would increase in three major zones: rural settings, urban settlements
and ecosystems. All three are exposed to several extreme conditions:
1. Rural settings: farmers are exposed to droughts and floods. Rain-fed farming strategies, soil erosion
and lack of economic incentives make them more vulnerable.
2. Urban settings: urban population is exposed mainly to heat waves. Potable water deficit, sprawling
and elderly population are factors that increase vulnerability.
3. Ecosystems: Meanwhile highlands are exposed to fires, pests and other invasive species, coastal zones
are exposed to sea level rise and extreme hurricane events. Irregular semi-urban settlements,
disproportionate tourism activities and the absence of planning and regulation strategies, make these
areas more vulnerable to extreme climate change conditions.
According to the World Bank (2010) Mexico is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change
since 15% of its territory, 68% of its population and 71% of its gross domestic product are exposed to
climate related dangers. The projections for Mexico toward climate change are that temperatures would
increase approximately between 3-4°C in the north and 2°C in the south provoking drought and water
scarcity. Precipitation projections show increments and decrements between -30% and +60% of the
actual range.
Fig. 1 Vulnerability to meteorological drought
(SEMARNAT, 2011)
Fig. 2 Per capita water availability 2050
projection (CENAPRED, 2011)
Liverman (1994) argues that Mexico in recent years has been incremented its drought vulnerability due
to commercial agriculture expansion and the agrarian reform. This has created a poor, rural group with
limited and uncertain access to cropland. In her study of Sonora, Liverman highlights that although
irrigation systems, seed genetic modification and fertilizers may reduce vulnerability in agriculture based
livelihoods, traditional practice has been expanded to high risk areas such as highlands or coastal zones.
Ibarrarán et al. (2009) studied levels of vulnerability and resilience in Mexican states, using the
vulnerability-resilience indicators model (VRIM). This measured eight major variables: settlement or
infrastructure sensitivity, food security, ecosystem sensitivity, human health, water resource sensitivity,
economic capacity, human and civic resources and environmental capacity. This study found that
geographic location is not necessarily a factor determining vulnerability or resilience to climate change.
Among the group of states with greater resilience, five of them are on the coastline and in the north
side; meanwhile the less resilient states are on the southern coast. The authors also found that drought
will affect resilience, although –they argue- due to the low importance of agriculture in national GDP,
the model show that drought is of minor importance in determining the values of resilience indicator.
Though, it is emphasized that social costs cannot be well identified by aggregate studies but are real and
should be accounted for.
The Secretary of Agriculture and Fisheries (SAGARPA, 2011) has developed a study for potential changes
in maize production. According to projections in water availability and drought vulnerability (figs. 1 and
2), the potential areas of seasonal maize production would change. The reduction of seasonal farming
territory may lead in food insecurity and economic instability, since maize is the principal product of the
recommended food basket and one of the most important export goods (figs. 3 and 4).
Fig. 3 Annual mean maize production (2010)
(SAGARPA, 2012)
Fig. 4 potential suitability for seasonal maize
production (2050 projection) (SIAP, 2012)
VULNERABILITY IN SINALOA
To understand the main impacts of maize vulnerability due to climate change, it is necessary to assess a
specific region. For this study was selected the state of Sinaloa, located in the Mexican northwest
region. Sinaloa represents 2.9% of the country’s total territorial expansion. It is bordered by the states of
Sonora to the North, Chihuahua and Durango to the East -separated from them by the Sierra Madre
Occidental- and Nayarit to the South. To the West, Sinaloa counts approximately with 650 kilometers
(403 miles) of coastline on the Gulf of California. Of Sinaloa’s total territory; 23% could be considered as
agriculture fields; 45% is considered for summer pasture; 16% could be exploited as agroforestry and
the other 16% are considered as uncultivable fields, stony grounds and urban areas (INEGI, 2011).
Sinaloa was chosen since by itself produces 22.4% of the national total maize production (SIAP, 2012),
between 5 and 7 million tons per year, being similar results to the “corn belt” production in US (MAYA et
al. 2007). In hence, Sinaloa not only is the first national producer in maize, it also harvests several kinds
of crops either for national or international markets (chart I). Nowadays it is considered “Mexico’s barn”
(El Granero de México).
Chart I. Sinaloa’s principal crop products (INEGI, 2011)
But not the whole state is benefited by the fact of being the first national agriculture producer. The
more rentable economic activities are concentrated only in a few municipalities. In these are located the
lands and the technology to promote maximum return crops, being Culiacan and Los Mochis the
principal agriculture communities. In the case of fishing activities and tourism, both are highly
concentrated in Mazatlan. Within these municipalities live near 80% of sinaloenses and work 79.2%
(SINALOA GOV. 2012). On the other side are located the highland municipalities where predominates
seasonal and subsistence agriculture. The serious social and regional disequilibrium is still present. The
difference between urban and rural zones, where predominates subsistence agriculture was visible since
1980’s and has barely changed. Economic activities, job creation and services were concentrated in
some of the urban localities. Whereas in the rural space, disperse and far from the cities, has been
difficult to introduce development programs. Meanwhile in cities like Culiacan, Mazatlan and Los Mochis
population was increasing; some localities such as San Ignacio, Badiraguato and Choix disappear from
the geographic statistics register (MARTINEZ DEL VILLAR,
1994).
Guillermo Ibarra (2003) also argues that the economic
growth of the entity has been unequal and contradictory
within municipalities. According to the economic and
demographic indicators, Culiacan, Mazatlan and Ahome
highlight as the most developed in social and economic
aspects, meanwhile Badiraguato, Choix, Sinaloa de Leyva
and Cosalá, as the most marginalized (IBARRA, 2003).
Fig.5 Marginalized and Developed municipalities
(Ibarra, 2003)
The lack of integration within the financial sector in Sinaloa contributed to the economic growth in the
state, but also deepened its regional and economic inequalities. The ‘development bank system1 ’ was
1
A development bank is defined by the Oxford business dictionary as a financial institution dedicated to fund new
and upcoming businesses and economic development projects by providing equity capital and/or loan capital. The
World Bank has been considered the first multilateral development bank in the world since 1944, when created at
the Bretton Woods to help European countries after WWII. The development bank system as a national concept
considered the major lender to the state economy; specifically the one specialized in agricultural
activities. When market liberation measures took place, the unequal canalization of resources got
substantially abated. This was mainly because all development bank offices were geographically
concentrated within the Center-North region and the fact that clientelism episodes were presented
more constantly, both factors helped relegate the South region and marginalize the highland
population. The private financial institutions took care of many of the loans in the region, but these
were mainly to support government administration, housing, commercial and service activities; leaving
apart the substantial economic engine of Sinaloa. Therefore agriculture and fish production are still
mainly supported by the development banks, receiving 10,7% of the total Federal subsidies being the
state with more financial support in Mexico (fig.6).
Fig.6 Federal subsidies distributed among the
states (million pesos) (SUBSIDIOS AL CAMPO, 2012)
was conceived in Mexico until 1982. This is a service exclusively provided by the State. The most important
Development Bank in Mexico is called Nacional Financiera S.N.C.
ASSESSING VULNERABILTY IN SINALOA
This study analyzed vulnerability and resilience of Sinaloa by using the sustainable livelihood system
framework in which by assessing livelihood assets, one can determine how resilient a community could
be, depending on its vulnerability context.
Vulnerability context
According to CENAPRED (2012) and many other researchers,
Sinaloa would be highly affected by meteorological drought
and floods due to cyclone activity. Only one fourth of the total
state territory would be considered with slight drought
conditions (fig.8), meanwhile three fourths are in the high
drought range. What regards to vulnerability to floods,
two municipalities are considered in high risk, Culiacan
Fig.7 Vulnerability to floods, Atlas Nacional de
RIesgos (CENAPRED, 2012)
Rosales and Mazatlan (fig.7).
On February 2011, an unexpected and unusual cold snap
shocked the state provoking the loss of more than one million
hectares of grain and vegetable production jeopardizing the
maize, bean and tomato consumption of the whole nation. It
was necessary to impulse the reseeding in the Spring-Summer
season despite the enormous cost it represented in water
and financial resources. Almost 3 million tons were obtained,
but not enough to supply national demands. Mexico had to
Fig.8 Vulnerability to meteorological drought, Atlas
Nacional de Riesgos (CENAPRED, 2012)
import white corn from Sudafrica, incrementing the cost per
ton about 38% in the first semester of 2011 (LA JORNADA, 2012). This episode made governments and
institutions realize how dependent Mexico is to Sinaloa’s agriculture and how vulnerability to climate
change in a specific region could become a national security issue.
Livelihood assets
1) Natural Capital
Water- Sinaloa has eleven rivers with a total of twelve dams. Its currents have an annual mean of 15,169
million cubic meters of water, contributing with the 2.44% of the hydrological resources of the national
GDP. Its natural mean per capita water availability is considered in medium levels, with an annual
recollection of 6,035 m3 per habitant, whereas the national annual mean is 4,547 m3 per habitant.
Among national levels, Sinaloa’s potable water accessibility is one of the most efficient in the country,
distributing around 95.6% of the territory in urban areas and 71.3% in rural zones (CNA, 2005).
Soil- Sinaloa has the most fertile soil in the nation accounting with one third of the vertisol soil cover
type considered more suitable for agriculture production. Sinaloa has moderate soil degradation sue to
the chemistry and fertilization processes for agriculture. This last point damages considerably soil
fertility. What regards to soil erosion, the potentiality to occur in Sinaloa is form moderate to high.
Hydric erosion projections are among the 35% and 55% chance to occur, meanwhile wind erosion
probability ranges among the 83% and 95%. Its geographic location and vegetation cover allows winds
and water to harm large territories; although man-made degradation is highly considered, primarily
overgrazing, deforestation, agriculture, and in less extent urbanization and industrial activities
(SEMARNAT, 2003).
Littoral- Sinaloa’s coastline has an extension of 656 km. of which 91% is considered among the Gulf of
California or Cortez Sea waters. The residual 9% has it land on the Pacific Ocean. It also has 12 bays, 15
swamps, 14 marshlands, 2 lagoons, one estuary, one cove and one river mouth. Inside all these water
bodies live several and unique kind of species (SEMARNAT, 2003) locating Sinaloa in the 2 nd place among
national levels of fish production (INEGI, 2010).
2) Physical Capital
Physical capital could be measured as how good and efficient is the infrastructure within the region.
Education- Sinaloa has covered 95% of its total territory with primary school services (1-6 grades).
College education is provided by the Autonomous University of Sinaloa as the primary resource,
following Universidad de Occidente and Instituto Tecnologico de Culiacán and Los Mochis as the most
important public institutions. Among other 10 private institutions give access to college education.
Health- As good as in the rest of the country, the National Social Security Institute (IMSS) provides the
majority of health services to the population, attending about 49% of habitants; the Public Health Sector
(SSA) receives 21.8% of the population, the Social Security Institute for State Workers (ISSSTE) attends
2.1, the University Public Hospital 5.5% and the private sector the last 21.6%. This proves that health is a
strong federal commitment and people seriously rely on this benefit (SSA, 2011).
Connectivity (highways) - Sinaloa has 16,335 km of highways that communicate throughout the state.
The international highway Mexico-Nogales crosses north to south through the state, connecting south
with Durango. Also Sinaloa is home of the largest steel-cable bridge in the world, the “Puente Baluarte”,
connecting Sinaloa with Durango through a new highway across the Sierra Madre Occidental, reducing
time travel more than half. The Baluarte Bridge among the new highway is a federal effort to invest in
Sinaloa’s market, which would be able to export its products to Europe by arriving faster to the Atlantic
Ocean.
3) Financial Capital
Sinaloa contributes with 2.1% of the national GDP, being in the 16th place of 32 states. Agriculture
related activities are the base of its economy, following fish and cattle production and in minor scale
tourism.
Agriculture- Although only 1% of the total state territory is dedicated to agricultural activities, Sinaloa
represents 14.1% of the total national agriculture production located at the first place in national levels.
Furthermore, Sinaloa accounts with one of the most efficient agriculture irrigation systems in the whole
country. Due to this, Sinaloa receives 10.7% of the total Federal subsidies being the state with more
financial support for agricultural purposes in Mexico (SIAP, 2010).
Cattle- Around 2% of the territory are dedicated to raise cattle. This is specified according to the kind of
vegetation cover and every year varies. What regards to beef meat production, Sinaloa is in the 7 th place
of national rankings, 13th in pork meat and 9th in poultry production (SIAP, 2010).
Fish - 5.53% of the total national coastline. Its fish production occupies the 2nd place in national levels
and is divided in two major sectors, traditional fishing and aquaculture. What regards to traditional
fishing 17.06% of national production is generated in Sinaloa as well as 18.54% of aquaculture
production (SIAP, 2010).
Tourism- Sinaloa makes 3.5% of national tourism section of GDP. Tourism is a relatively new sector
promoted in Sinaloa. Before 2005, the only municipality that had touristic sector was Mazatlán. When
the regional Secretary of Tourism was developed, Sinaloa had an increment from 2.4% to 10.1% of the
state GDP.
4) Political Capital
In 2008 the NAFTA agricultural chapter took place with the finality of increase agricultural production
and commercialization. Indeed it increased, but the quality of crop diminished. Farmers were pushed to
plant not only a spring-summer season (traditional) but to sow a fall-winter season as well (in spite of
the environmental and financial costs it represents). Furthermore, farmers are encouraged to seed only
one corn type instead of the variety they used to, because of the market demand. Commercialization of
crops became transnational allowing just a couple of companies set up the product prices, in many cases
fomenting high importation patterns, increasing the vulnerability of Mexican farmers.
5) Human Capital
Level of education - In Sinaloa, only 53.4% of the population finishes up to 6th grade, 17.7% finishes 9th
grade and only 10.8% graduates from high school. Whereas college degree pursuit, only 6.3% of the
population actually are able to finish a career (INEGI, 2011).
Internal Migration- Migration in Sinaloa is an important process for agriculture activities. Among
200,000 peasants are employed in crop fields, being over 50,000 seasonal migrants from Guerrero,
Oaxaca and Michoacán (Meza et al. 2010).
Social equity -Social and economic inequity is constantly observed in Sinaloa. Meanwhile Culiacán,
Mazatlán and Los Mochis are the most developed municipalities, the highlands “la sierra” is in extreme
poverty conditions.
CONCLUSIONS
Natural, physical and financial capital could be considered resilient among other states within the
region. This is due to its strong financial availability, its per capita GDP and its investment in natural
resources. Vulnerability in Sinaloa could be identified more in both political and human capital. The
political aspects of NAFTA agricultural chapter, the level of education within population as well as
migration and social equity make Sinaloa’s livelihoods weak and vulnerable to Climate Change.
As one could expect, human and political capital are strongly important when developing sustainability.
Human capital is required to make use of any of the four other types of assets, since is considered the
knowledge and labor of the livelihood; whereas political capital is considered more intimately connected
with the transformation of structure and processes, mainly important in the decision making progress.
Then, Sinaloa need to enhance and develop strategies that could strength its human and political
capital.
What regards to natural and physical capital, Sinaloa knows that are very important for the resourcebased activities, which the state highly depends on. However, modern development strategies appear to
be disconnected to this thought. It is necessary to enhance protection of these assets in order to claim
sustainable livelihoods in Sinaloa.
Further research aims to clear out this conclusion, by assessing vulnerability within the vulnerabilityresilience indicators method and analyzing in small scale the sustainable livelihood framework for
Sinaloa’s rural and urban communities. This first approach to use the sustainable livelihood framework
was intended to be a close up of Sinaloa. In hence, this paper could be the threshold to understand how
future research could be approached.
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