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RICCI – Task Force Kick-off May 7th 2009 DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION Objective and Phases of the Project Objective NERC has recognized the continental scope of Climate Change legislation, and because many of the variables impact reliability on a continental scale, it is vital that NERC, as the industry’s sponsor for bulk power system reliability, identify reliability considerations of Climate Change Initiatives. Project PHASE I Provide a high level view of reliability considerations for Climate Change issues and will identify and categorize technical reliability considerations Scope of NERC-Accenture work PHASE II Conduct a technical assessment of North America, building on the results from the Phase I report, performing reliability assessments of the bulk power system for selected scenarios NERC next phase Scope and Conceptual Framework of Analysis (Phase I & Phase II) Climate Change Initiatives / Scenarios & Technology Changes Current NA Bulk Power System External/New Drivers Future NA Bulk Future NA Future NABulk Bulk Power System Power PowerSystem System (Scenarios) Evolution Baseline Evolution: Demand, Supply, T&D Investment, Standards, … Criteria / Dimensions of Analysis Reliability Security Technology Investment Regulation, … Phase II Continuity Phase 1 – Proposed Timeline PHASE I Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 DATA COLLECTION DATA SYNTHESIS SCENARIO CREATION AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY DATA SYNTHESIS AND SCENARIO ITERATIONS Milestones Project Kick-off April 27th Stakeholder Kick-off May 7th First Draft Provided for Stakeholder Review Proposed: May 25th Submission of Revised Version Proposed: June 5th High Level Summary of Data Sources and Synthesis Table of Content (TOC) DATA COLLECTION DATA SYNTHESIS - TOC • NERC Reports • DOE EIA information and models, as relevant • Material from national labs such as NETL, NREL, PNL, & LBL, as appropriate • Characteristics of the Grid • Myths & Legends • Other Publicly Available Studies/information • Study implications • Task Force and other Utility developed materials • Key Drivers • Accenture Climate Change Initiative Results and other information/studies. • Reliability Implications • Additional sources found through an Accenture literature search • Way Forward (phase II) Extract of Reference Documentation (collection phase in progress) Accenture. “Accenture Executive Survey on Climate Change 2008, Parts I & II” May 2008. Accenture. “Achieving High Performance in an Era of Climate Change,” 2008. DOE. “20% Wind Energy by 2030,” July 2008. http://www.20percentwind.org/default.aspx DOE. “2009 Annual Plan Ultra-Deepwater and Unconventional Natural Gas and Other Petroleum Resources Research and Development Program,” (NETL) December 2008. DOE. “An Interagency Roadmap for Methane Hydrate Research & Development,” (NETL) July 2006. DOE. “Hydrogen Posture Plan: An Integrated Research, Development and Demonstration Plan,” (NETL) December 2006. EIA. “Annual Energy Outlook 2008 with Projections to 2030,” June 2008. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/0383(2008).pdf EIA. “Impacts of a 25-Percent Renewable Electricity Standard as Proposed in the American Clean Energy and Security Act Discussion Draft,” April 2009. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/acesa/pdf/sroiaf(2009)04.pdf EPRI. “2008 Update of the Profiling and Mapping of Intelligent Grid R&D Programs,” August 28, 2008. EPRI. “Recent EPRI R&D Threads related to Grid Operation and Planning,” April 19, 2005. http://phasors.pnl.gov/Meetings/2005_april/presentations/Lee%20EIPP_EPRI_4192005.pdf Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. “Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards (RPS),” February 6, 2009. http://www.nerc.com/files/2008-Climate-Initiatives-Report.pdf IEEE PES Transactions on Energy Conversion. “Key Technical Challenges for the Electric Power Industry and Climate Change,” February 2009. Joint Coordinated System Plan (JCSP). “2018 Summer Reliability Study Report,” February 2009. http://www.jcspstudy.org/ McKinsey & Company. “Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How Much at What Cost?” December 2007. http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/ccsi/greenhousegas.asp National Renewable Energy Laboratory. “Advanced Power Electronic Interfaces for Distributed Energy Systems, Part 1: Systems and Topologies,” March 2008. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy08osti/42672.pdf NERC. “2008 Long-Term Reliability Assessment: 2008 – 2017,” January 27, 2009. NERC. “Special Report: Electric Industry Concerns on the Reliability Impacts of Climate Change Initiatives,” November 12, 2008. NERC. Press Release. “NERC CEO Announces Plan to Improve Response to Cyber and Critical Infrastructure Protection,” July 14, 2008. http://www.nerc.com/fileUploads/File/PressReleases/PR_071408_CIP_Letter.pdf The Blue Ribbon Panel on Cost Allocation. “A National Perspective on Allocating the Costs of New Transmission Investment: Practice and Principles,” September 2007. Tierney, Susan F. Analysis Group. “A 21st Century “Interstate Electric Highway System” – Connecting Consumers and Domestic Clean Power Supplies,” (“Tierney White Paper”) October 31, 2008. http://www.analysisgroup.com/analysisgroup/uploadedFiles/Publishing/Articles/Tierney_21st_Century_Transmission.pdf Open Considerations Regarding Scenario Creation (Preparation for Phase II) Third Party Reference Scenarios Create Scenarios • Use the climate change drivers identified in Phase I (ex: Direct Greenhouse gas caps, renewable objectives, EE objectives etc.) • Select combinations of those drivers to create several representative scenarios • Select meaningful ranges for each driver, based on legislation and perceived viability (ex: 15, 20% or 25% renewables by 2020) • Keep other baseline factors constant (i.e. use third party reference for non climate change factors) • Use third party reference scenarios (ex: EIA) • Analyze the assumptions and tie climate change assumptions back to the Phase I drivers • Focus on analyzing the implications (what needs to be done to achieve this?) and consequences (on reliability etc.) of these scenarios + + • Direct tie-in to Phase I and the build up of the drivers • Credibility and homogeneity based on widely recognized references • Focuses on climate change parameters only as scenario variables • Less time spent modeling scenarios and more focus spent on implications for the grid / consequences for reliability Going Forward: Expectations from this Group for Phase I Share any relevant documents during the data collection phase Review the approach and the analysis results Provide clarification on key issues or discuss any finds not in line with expectations Discuss and validate the scenario development/selection -> Ultimately, own the assessment and the results for Phase 1 Question & Answer