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Kenya’s INDC: Actions in the Agriculture Sector INDC Sector Meeting Agriculture Sector 23rd May 2016 StARCK+ Technical Assistance Component Introduction The Paris climate agreement was historic. On 22nd April 2016, some 177 nations (Including Kenya) signed the Paris treaty to limit warming to at least 2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. Countries have made GHG emission reductions commitments. Yet the question remains – Are countries clear on how they will get there? These series of sectoral workshops aim to address this question for Kenya? Introduction (cont’d) Mitigation options in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector, need to be assessed, as far as possible, for their potential impact on all other services provided by land Food security Biodiversity Other services provided by land Adaptation and resilience are therefore a priority for the Agriculture sector Overview Adaptation Rationale Risks and Impacts Adaptation Goal in the Sector Priority Adaptation Goals Mitigation Baseline Emission Projections INDC Target for the Agriculture Sector Mitigation Options in the SNC Key Mitigation Options Discussion Questions Adaptation: Rationale Kenya’s INDC emphasizes adaptation and identifies priority actions drawing on the National Adaptation Plan 2105-2030 (NAP). The Paris Agreement recognises the special place of agriculture: increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production (Preamble and Article 2(b)) The NCCAP notes that food security is a priority of the Government of Kenya and action to address climate change should not threaten the county’s ability to feed its population. Agricultural sector Crops cultivation Livestock Fisheries Adaptation: Risks & Impacts Figure : Agriculture growth index and major extreme events in Kenya 1980-2012 Agriculture is very susceptible to the vagaries of weather and climate Increasing temperatures Changing rainfall patterns Extreme weather events Sector has linkages to other sectors & overall economy Source: Kenya Climate Smart Agriculture Program, page 4. Adaptation: Risks & Impacts A mixed basket with respect to future impacts, but one dominated by unpredictability: Some crops are expected to experience more favourable growing conditions as a result of climate change, whereas others will find future climatic conditions intolerable Some regions (the mixed rain-fed temperate and tropical highlands) are projected to experience an increase in crop yields ASALs are projected to witness a significant decline in crop yields and livestock numbers as water resources become increasingly scarce Adaptation: Goal The INDC’s adaptation goal is enhanced resilience to climate change towards the attainment of Vision 2030 Agriculture sector: to enhance the resilience of the agriculture, livestock and fisheries value chains by promoting climate smart agriculture, livestock and fisheries development Goal to be achieved by mainstreaming climate change action into Medium Term Plans Sector is already responding to climate change Draft Smart Agriculture (CSA) strategy NAP: Priority Actions in the Agriculture Sector To be undertaken in as low-carbon a manner as possible Short Term Sub-actions (1-2 years) Medium Term Sub-actions (3-5 years) Long Term Sub-Actions Promote indigenous knowledge on crops. Increase awareness on climate change impacts on the agriculture value chain. Conduct climate risk and vulnerability assessments of the agriculture value chain. Coordinate and mainstream climate change adaptation into agricultural extension. Promote new food habits. Establish, maintain and promote the uptake of climate change related information on agriculture. Develop and up-scale specific adaptation actions - promotion and bulking of drought tolerant traditional high value crops; water harvesting for crop production; index-based weather insurance; conservation agriculture; agro-forestry; and Integrated soil fertility management. Develop and apply Performance Benefit Measurement methodologies for adaptation and development for the sector; Support adaptation of private sector agricultural value chain actors through capacity building efforts. Promote and implement climate smart agriculture practices in Kenya. >6 years Source: Government of Kenya (2016), National Adaptation Plan 2015-2030 Priority Adaptation Actions Crops Drought tolerant crops Water harvesting Integrated soil fertility management Insurance schemes Conservation agriculture Agroforestry Mainstreaming climate change in agricultural extension services Livestock Improved management of crazing systems Livestock diversification Price stabilization schemes Breeding of animals for resilience & low methane Low-carbon development pathway Mitigation: Baseline Emissions Many actions that build resilience and improve agricultural production also reduce GHG emissions. The NCCAP states that Kenya will not adopt measures to reduce GHG emissions if they threaten the country’s ability to feed itself or reduce export earnings in the sector. Agriculture emissions about 40% (2010) and 27% (2030) of total national emissions Livestock emissions were about 30% of total emissions in 2010 Energy emissions increase faster to 2030 Baseline Emissions (Figures) Baseline Emissions (MtCO2e) Sector 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Agriculture 30 23 26 30 32 34 36 39 Electricity Generation 0 1 1 1 1 12 24 40 LULUCF 12 21 18 21 26 25 23 20 Transportation 4 4 4 7 9 12 16 17 Energy Demand 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 Industrial Processes 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 Waste 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 TOTAL 52 55 57 70 80 96 115 138 Agriculture (%) 58% 42% 46% 43% 40% 35% 31% 28% Emissions are projected to rise from 30 MtCO2e in 2015 to 39 MtCO2e in 2030, an increase of 22%. 6 sources of agricultural emissions: Rice cultivation Livestock manure mgnt Burning crop residues Savanna burning Baseline Emissions Projection 45 GHG Emissions MtCO2e 40 Burning Crop Residues 35 Rice Cultivation 30 25 20 15 Agricultural Soils 10 Livestock Enteric Fermentation Agricultural soils 5 Livestock enteric fermentation 0 2000 Livestock enteric fermentation and agricultural soils constitute the major share. Livestock Manure Management Savanna Burning 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Projection assumptions for agricultural emission sources Emission Source Metric Assumption Notes Enteric Fermentation, Manure Management and Related Agricultural Soils Emissions Livestock Population (Poultry, Swine) Livestock Population (Cattle, Sheep, Goat, Camels, Donkeys) +3% per year Forecast growth rate of Agricultural GDP in Vision 2030. +1.3% per year Rice Cultivation Production of Rice +3% per year Agricultural Residues Production of Rice, Wheat, Maize, Sugarcane Application of Nitrogen fertilizer +3% per year Future growth rates of livestock between 2010 and 2030 are likely to be below average historic growth rates of livestock as there is mounting evidence that current populations of livestock on rangelands in Kenya may be near or above their carrying capacity.1 Historical data for 2011 to 2013 also used. 3% growth rate based on Forecast growth rate of Agricultural GDP in Vision 2030. Historical data for 2011 to 2013 also used. 3% growth rate based on forecast growth rate of Agricultural GDP in Vision 2030. Agricultural Soils Savannah Burning Hectares of land burned 1International +3% per year 0% per year Historical data for 2011 to 2013 also used. 3% growth rate based on Forecast growth rate of Agricultural GDP in Vision 2030. No change in current practices forecasted. Livestock Research Institute. 2008. Livestock market access and opportunities in Turkana, Kenya. Research Report 3. Mitigation Contribution The Second National Communication determined that Kenya’s projected emissions for 2030 are 143 MTCO2e. Kenya has potential to reduce projected emissions by 86 MTCO2e. The INDC mitigation target is half this potential or 43 MTCO2e. Composite abatement potential for all sectors for Kenya (technical potential) in MTCO 2eq GHG Emissions MTCO2e 160 140 Waste 120 Industrial Processes 100 Agriculture Transportation 80 Energy Demand 60 Electricity Generation 40 Forestry 20 0 1995 Low Carbon Pathway 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: Government of Kenya (2015), Second National Communication, page 172. INDC Mitigation Contribution by Sector The Comparison of 2030 Baseline Emissions and INDC Target Emission Reductions (MtCO2e) Identifies a reasonable 2030 target for emission reductions in the agriculture sector and bounds this target with a low and high range that could be reasonably expected to achieve the overall 30% INDC emission reduction target. Reductions Relative to Baseline (MtCO2e) 45 40 35 38.7 30 2.8 2.2 3.3 (7.2%) (6.7%) (8.5%) Target Emission Reductions Low Range of Emission Reductions High Range of Emission Reductions 25 20 15 10 5 0 Baseline Emissions Mitigation Options in the SNC and NCCAP • • A total of 3 mitigation options assessed in the NCCAP and SNC for their mitigation contribution There is flexibility in achieving the 2.8 MtCO2e reduction target, and there’s no need to fully implement all the 3 options But full implementation of Conservation Tillage and Limiting Fire use does not achieve the target, hence the critical role of agroforestry Limiting use of Fire in Range and Cropland Management Agriculture • Conservation Tillage Agroforestry 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 Estimated Technical Potential Emission Reductions in 2030 (MtCO2e) Achieving the INDC Potential Agroforestry – farm forestry rules call for at least 10% tree cover on farms. INDC potential assumes that can achieve 2.5% of additional tree cover, or 140,500 hectares is converted to agroforestry between 2015 and 2030. Conservation tillage – convert 10% of rain-fed agriculture croplands from full tillage to conservation tillage – 237,500 hectares over 10 years. Limiting fire – prevent 30% of cropland burning per year, or 690,000 hectares, requires outreach to 1.79 million households. Other Mitigation Options Other options discussed but not included in NCCAP: No mitigation option for the livestock sector – e.g., livestock substitution, reduction in size of cattle herds. Discussed during the NCCAP, but not included because of the lack of certainty to undertake the actions, track them properly and deliver on expected emission reductions. Manure management - not included because of prevalence of open grazing Organic agriculture – no conclusive data Increased productivity through fertilizer application - most studies show it is likely to result in more land cleared for agriculture and increases in emissions from nitrogen fertilizer use – no conclusive research Mitigation/Adaptation Synergies Three options have adaptation co-benefits: Agroforestry (combination of trees and shrubs with crops and/or livestock) - Increases water retention and infiltration, counters soil erosion , can provide sustainable wood harvesting, and products can enhance incomes and food security. Conservation tillage (techniques that disturb the soil as little possible and leave crop residues on the surface) - enhances water retention, reduces soil erosion, improves soil fertility. Limiting use of fire – improves hydrological functioning, making land more robust under drying conditions, less prone to erosion and nutrient depletion. Mitigation Technologies Mitigation Option Agroforestry Key Technologies Required Nurseries, improved market access for small farms, extension service support, capacity building, research and pilot projects, MRV capacity Conservation Agriculture extension services, low cost Tillage tillage systems and equipment Limiting use of Agriculture extension services, capacity Fire building for extension workers, research and pilot projects Discussion - Mitigation Does the BAU scenario closely represent reality as of now or is some adjustment necessary? Is a 2.8 MTCO2e emission reduction contribution by 2030 reasonable for the sector? How does the agriculture sector plan to reach the INDC target? Are the three mitigation actions the correct priority actions for the INDC? What progress has been made in the three areas? What are the barriers and opportunities to deeper emission reductions in the agriculture sector? Will the sector be able to increase ambition in 2020 and in five year periods? Barriers: financing, poverty, institutional, ecological, technological development, diffusion and transfer barriers Opportunities: Supply-side (production) and demand-side (consumption) options Discussion - Adaptation What short- and medium-term adaptation actions (2015-2020) in the NAP are underway? Are adaptation actions being mainstreamed in the Third MTP? Is adjustment needed to the priority adaptation actions in the INDC? Are they aligned with the MALF’s CSA strategy? What are the priority actions in the next 5 years? Out to 2030? Discussion Does the INDC analysis reflect the current action and planning in the agriculture sector? What climate change programs and actions are on-going/planned in the agriculture sector (e.g., World Bank CSA programme) – out to 2020? Which are adaptation focused? Which are mitigation focused? What are priority areas for action and investment? Where are the largest investment gaps (e.g., specific action areas/ locations / technologies)?