Download INDC Actions in the Agriculture Sector

Kenya’s INDC:
Actions in the Agriculture Sector
INDC Sector Meeting
Agriculture Sector
23rd May 2016
StARCK+ Technical Assistance Component
Introduction
 The Paris climate agreement was historic.
 On 22nd April 2016, some 177 nations (Including Kenya)
signed the Paris treaty to limit warming to at least 2°C above
pre-industrial levels by 2100.
 Countries have made GHG emission reductions
commitments.
 Yet the question remains – Are countries clear on how
they will get there?
 These series of sectoral workshops aim to address this
question for Kenya?
Introduction (cont’d)
 Mitigation options in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other
Land Use (AFOLU) sector, need to be assessed, as far
as possible, for their potential impact on all other
services provided by land
 Food security
 Biodiversity
 Other services provided by land
 Adaptation and resilience are therefore a priority for the
Agriculture sector
Overview
 Adaptation




Rationale
Risks and Impacts
Adaptation Goal in the Sector
Priority Adaptation Goals
 Mitigation




Baseline Emission Projections
INDC Target for the Agriculture Sector
Mitigation Options in the SNC
Key Mitigation Options
 Discussion Questions
Adaptation: Rationale
 Kenya’s INDC emphasizes adaptation and identifies priority
actions drawing on the National Adaptation Plan 2105-2030
(NAP).
 The Paris Agreement recognises the special place of
agriculture: increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse
impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and
low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner
that does not threaten food production (Preamble and
Article 2(b))
 The NCCAP notes that food security is a priority of the
Government of Kenya and action to address climate change
should not threaten the county’s ability to feed its population.
 Agricultural sector
 Crops cultivation
 Livestock
 Fisheries
Adaptation: Risks & Impacts

Figure : Agriculture growth index and major
extreme events in Kenya 1980-2012
 Agriculture is very
susceptible to the vagaries
of weather and climate
 Increasing temperatures
 Changing rainfall patterns
 Extreme weather events
 Sector has linkages to
other sectors & overall
economy
Source: Kenya Climate Smart Agriculture Program, page 4.
Adaptation: Risks & Impacts
 A mixed basket with respect to future impacts,
but one dominated by unpredictability:
 Some crops are expected to experience more
favourable growing conditions as a result of climate
change, whereas others will find future climatic
conditions intolerable
 Some regions (the mixed rain-fed temperate and
tropical highlands) are projected to experience an
increase in crop yields
 ASALs are projected to witness a significant
decline in crop yields and livestock numbers as
water resources become increasingly scarce
Adaptation: Goal
 The INDC’s adaptation goal is enhanced resilience to
climate change towards the attainment of Vision 2030
 Agriculture sector: to enhance the resilience of the
agriculture, livestock and fisheries value chains by
promoting climate smart agriculture, livestock and
fisheries development
 Goal to be achieved by mainstreaming climate
change action into Medium Term Plans
 Sector is already responding to climate change
 Draft Smart Agriculture (CSA) strategy
NAP: Priority Actions in the Agriculture Sector
To be undertaken in as low-carbon a manner as possible
Short Term
Sub-actions
(1-2 years)





Medium Term
Sub-actions
(3-5 years)




Long Term
Sub-Actions

Promote indigenous knowledge on crops.
Increase awareness on climate change impacts on the agriculture value chain.
Conduct climate risk and vulnerability assessments of the agriculture value chain.
Coordinate and mainstream climate change adaptation into agricultural
extension.
Promote new food habits.
Establish, maintain and promote the uptake of climate change related information
on agriculture.
Develop and up-scale specific adaptation actions - promotion and bulking of
drought tolerant traditional high value crops; water harvesting for crop production;
index-based weather insurance; conservation agriculture; agro-forestry; and
Integrated soil fertility management.
Develop and apply Performance Benefit Measurement methodologies for
adaptation and development for the sector;
Support adaptation of private sector agricultural value chain actors through
capacity building efforts.
Promote and implement climate smart agriculture practices in Kenya.
>6 years
Source: Government of Kenya (2016), National Adaptation Plan 2015-2030
Priority Adaptation Actions
 Crops
 Drought tolerant crops
 Water harvesting
 Integrated soil fertility




management
Insurance schemes
Conservation agriculture
Agroforestry
Mainstreaming climate
change in agricultural
extension services
 Livestock
 Improved management of
crazing systems
 Livestock diversification
 Price stabilization
schemes
 Breeding of animals for
resilience & low methane
Low-carbon development pathway
Mitigation: Baseline Emissions
 Many actions that build resilience and improve agricultural production
also reduce GHG emissions.
 The NCCAP states that Kenya will not adopt measures to reduce
GHG emissions if they threaten the country’s ability to feed itself or
reduce export earnings in the sector.

Agriculture emissions
about 40% (2010) and
27% (2030) of total
national emissions

Livestock emissions were
about 30% of total
emissions in 2010

Energy emissions
increase faster to 2030
Baseline Emissions (Figures)
Baseline Emissions (MtCO2e)
Sector
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Agriculture
30
23
26
30
32
34
36
39
Electricity Generation
0
1
1
1
1
12
24
40
LULUCF
12
21
18
21
26
25
23
20
Transportation
4
4
4
7
9
12
16
17
Energy Demand
4
5
5
6
7
8
9
10
Industrial Processes
1
1
1
2
3
4
5
6
Waste
1
1
2
2
2
3
3
4
TOTAL
52
55
57
70
80
96
115
138
Agriculture (%)
58%
42%
46%
43%
40%
35%
31%
28%
Emissions are projected to rise
from 30 MtCO2e in 2015 to 39
MtCO2e in 2030, an increase
of 22%.

6 sources of agricultural
emissions:


Rice cultivation

Livestock manure mgnt


Burning crop residues
Savanna burning
Baseline Emissions
Projection
45
GHG Emissions MtCO2e

40
Burning Crop Residues
35
Rice Cultivation
30
25
20
15
Agricultural Soils
10
Livestock Enteric
Fermentation

Agricultural soils
5

Livestock enteric
fermentation
0
2000
Livestock enteric fermentation
and agricultural soils constitute
the major share.
Livestock Manure
Management
Savanna Burning
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Projection assumptions for agricultural
emission sources
Emission
Source
Metric
Assumption
Notes
Enteric
Fermentation,
Manure
Management and
Related
Agricultural Soils
Emissions
Livestock
Population
(Poultry, Swine)
Livestock
Population
(Cattle, Sheep,
Goat, Camels,
Donkeys)
+3% per year
Forecast growth rate of Agricultural GDP in
Vision 2030.
+1.3% per year
Rice Cultivation
Production of
Rice
+3% per year
Agricultural
Residues
Production of
Rice, Wheat,
Maize,
Sugarcane
Application of
Nitrogen fertilizer
+3% per year
Future growth rates of livestock between
2010 and 2030 are likely to be below average
historic growth rates of livestock as there is
mounting evidence that current populations
of livestock on rangelands in Kenya may be
near or above their carrying capacity.1
Historical data for 2011 to 2013 also used.
3% growth rate based on Forecast growth
rate of Agricultural GDP in Vision 2030.
Historical data for 2011 to 2013 also used.
3% growth rate based on forecast growth
rate of Agricultural GDP in Vision 2030.
Agricultural Soils
Savannah Burning Hectares of land
burned
1International
+3% per year
0% per year
Historical data for 2011 to 2013 also used.
3% growth rate based on Forecast growth
rate of Agricultural GDP in Vision 2030.
No change in current practices forecasted.
Livestock Research Institute. 2008. Livestock market access and opportunities
in Turkana, Kenya. Research Report 3.
Mitigation Contribution
The Second National Communication determined that Kenya’s
projected emissions for 2030 are 143 MTCO2e. Kenya has
potential to reduce projected emissions by 86 MTCO2e. The INDC
mitigation target is half this potential or 43 MTCO2e.
Composite abatement potential for all sectors for Kenya (technical potential) in MTCO 2eq
GHG Emissions MTCO2e
160
140
Waste
120
Industrial Processes
100
Agriculture
Transportation
80
Energy Demand
60
Electricity Generation
40
Forestry
20
0
1995
Low Carbon Pathway
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: Government of Kenya (2015), Second National Communication, page 172.
INDC Mitigation Contribution by Sector
The
Comparison of 2030 Baseline Emissions and
INDC Target Emission Reductions (MtCO2e)
Identifies a reasonable 2030
target for emission
reductions in the agriculture
sector and bounds this
target with a low and high
range that could be
reasonably expected to
achieve the overall 30%
INDC emission reduction
target.
Reductions Relative to Baseline (MtCO2e)
45
40
35
38.7
30
2.8
2.2
3.3
(7.2%)
(6.7%)
(8.5%)
Target Emission
Reductions
Low Range of
Emission
Reductions
High Range of
Emission
Reductions
25
20
15
10
5
0
Baseline
Emissions
Mitigation Options in the SNC
and NCCAP
•
•
A total of 3 mitigation
options assessed in the
NCCAP and SNC for
their mitigation
contribution
There is flexibility in
achieving the 2.8
MtCO2e reduction
target, and there’s no
need to fully implement
all the 3 options
But full implementation
of Conservation Tillage
and Limiting Fire use
does not achieve the
target, hence the critical
role of agroforestry
Limiting use of Fire in Range and Cropland Management
Agriculture
•
Conservation Tillage
Agroforestry
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
Estimated Technical Potential Emission Reductions in 2030 (MtCO2e)
Achieving the INDC Potential
 Agroforestry – farm forestry rules call for at least
10% tree cover on farms. INDC potential
assumes that can achieve 2.5% of additional tree
cover, or 140,500 hectares is converted to
agroforestry between 2015 and 2030.
 Conservation tillage – convert 10% of rain-fed
agriculture croplands from full tillage to
conservation tillage – 237,500 hectares over 10
years.
 Limiting fire – prevent 30% of cropland burning
per year, or 690,000 hectares, requires outreach
to 1.79 million households.
Other Mitigation Options
Other options discussed but not included in NCCAP:
 No mitigation option for the livestock sector – e.g., livestock
substitution, reduction in size of cattle herds.
Discussed during the NCCAP, but not included because of
the lack of certainty to undertake the actions, track them
properly and deliver on expected emission reductions.
 Manure management - not included because of prevalence
of open grazing
 Organic agriculture – no conclusive data
 Increased productivity through fertilizer application - most
studies show it is likely to result in more land cleared for
agriculture and increases in emissions from nitrogen
fertilizer use – no conclusive research
Mitigation/Adaptation Synergies
Three options have adaptation co-benefits:
 Agroforestry (combination of trees and shrubs with
crops and/or livestock) - Increases water retention
and infiltration, counters soil erosion , can provide
sustainable wood harvesting, and products can
enhance incomes and food security.
 Conservation tillage (techniques that disturb the soil
as little possible and leave crop residues on the
surface) - enhances water retention, reduces soil
erosion, improves soil fertility.
 Limiting use of fire – improves hydrological
functioning, making land more robust under drying
conditions, less prone to erosion and nutrient
depletion.
Mitigation Technologies
Mitigation
Option
Agroforestry
Key Technologies Required
Nurseries, improved market access for small
farms, extension service support, capacity
building, research and pilot projects, MRV
capacity
Conservation
Agriculture extension services, low cost
Tillage
tillage systems and equipment
Limiting use of
Agriculture extension services, capacity
Fire
building for extension workers, research and
pilot projects
Discussion - Mitigation
 Does the BAU scenario closely represent reality as of now or is
some adjustment necessary?
 Is a 2.8 MTCO2e emission reduction contribution by 2030
reasonable for the sector?
 How does the agriculture sector plan to reach the INDC target?
Are the three mitigation actions the correct priority actions for the
INDC? What progress has been made in the three areas?
 What are the barriers and opportunities to deeper emission
reductions in the agriculture sector? Will the sector be able to
increase ambition in 2020 and in five year periods?
 Barriers: financing, poverty, institutional, ecological,
technological development, diffusion and transfer barriers
 Opportunities: Supply-side (production) and demand-side
(consumption) options
Discussion - Adaptation
 What short- and medium-term adaptation actions
(2015-2020) in the NAP are underway?
 Are adaptation actions being mainstreamed in the
Third MTP?
 Is adjustment needed to the priority adaptation
actions in the INDC? Are they aligned with the
MALF’s CSA strategy?
 What are the priority actions in the next 5 years?
Out to 2030?
Discussion
 Does the INDC analysis reflect the current action
and planning in the agriculture sector?
 What climate change programs and actions are
on-going/planned in the agriculture sector (e.g.,
World Bank CSA programme) – out to 2020?
Which are adaptation focused? Which are
mitigation focused?
 What are priority areas for action and
investment? Where are the largest investment
gaps (e.g., specific action areas/ locations /
technologies)?