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North Sea case studies The North Sea: a diverse large marine ecosystem VECTORS Fact sheet series Vectors of change in European Marine Ecosystems and their Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts The VECTORS project seeks to develop integrated, multidisciplinary research - based understanding of changes taking place in our marine environment, the mechanisms for them and the ecological impacts expected from them. VECTORS will examine how these changes may affect the range of goods and services provided by the oceans, the ensuing socio - economic impacts and some of the measures that could be developed to reduce or adapt to these changes. Regional Seas Case Studies VECTORS studies three regional seas, the North Sea, Baltic and Western Mediterranean, as research areas for investigating the impacts of human activities and how multiple pressures can have combined and interacting effects for the marine environment, society and economy. Within each of the regional seas several case studies are taking place to allow more targeted investigation of the causes and impacts of these pressures in particular environments. This series of fact sheets provides an overview of each case study and the varying scientific approaches used. This case study investigates the North Sea at the large rather than the local scale to understand the impacts of combined uses such as windfarms, aquaculture and Marine Protected Areas and the potential from the latter both for conservation and fisheries benefits. This includes studying the different causes of change and the effects that they may have on humans and society, such as »» »» »» What will be the impact of jellyfish outbreaks for tourism and industry? What is the future for fisheries, how will they be affected by changes to the foodweb and climate change? What are the economic repercussions of changes to fisheries? VECTORS will use computer simulations to better understand the causes and effects of fluctuations in the numbers and types of organisms living in the North Sea, in particular the abundance and distribution of commercially important fish species. The computer models draw on historical data as well as theoretical principles of ecology and oceanography. Changes related to foodwebs and climate change play a prominent role in such models. VECTORS will study the effects of competition between fishermen who target the same fish species but also the less direct links between fishermen targeting different fish species who still compete with each other due to intricate species interactions, such as predator and prey relationships. This leads not only to interactions between individual fishermen, but to interactions through the ecosystem and between entire fishing fleets. This implies that viability and profitability of various fishing activities depend on each other. VECTORS scientists will study these interactions and their implications for management of fishing fleets on a North Sea wide scale. Such interactions between economic activities are not uniquely related to fisheries, but apply to all activities at sea (such as renewable energy, shipping, recreation). To facilitate effective management of all these parallel activities, it is essential to calculate their economic value. In VECTORS, we not only calculate the economic values, but also study how these values change in relation to changes in the ecosystem. A number of highly complex computer models are being applied within the VECTORS project to try to establish how the North Sea ecosystem might change over the next 50 to 100 years. Scientists will use a variety of different techniques to predict how temperature, currents, salinity, plankton productivity and animal distribution might all be influenced by future climate change as well as human activities such as fishing pressure, offshore windfarms and marine nature reserves. North Sea case studies Researchers from several EU countries are working together to apply a brand new, state-ofthe-art simulation tool called ATLANTIS, that will be used to investigate multiple pressures and how they interact. Drainage basin National boundary Drivers of change in the North Sea include shipping, pollution, renewable energy generation, fishing, aquaculture, sand and aggregate extraction. These activities can result in changes in species distribution, impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem function and a decrease in fishing revenue, resources and tourism. North Sea Figure 1. North sea boundary and drainage basin. SAN MARINO Contact Project coordinator: Mel Austen Project manager: Jenny Lockett VECTORS Project Office VECTORS V1: Feb 2013 Coordinated by Plymouth Marine Laboratory [email protected], www.marine-vectors.eu Why VECTORS has already established that human activities leading to climate change and fishing impacts are the most important current pressures in the North Sea. Some pressures are gaining in importance both because of increasing impact but also because of improved methods of assessment and monitoring. These pressures include noise pollution, the effects of marine litter and contamination by extremely small particles. In addition, there are newly emerging pressures some of which are easily recognised (marine renewable energy) and others which are more hypothetical such as the potential to develop sub-seabed carbon storage. Fishing is one of the most important pressures on the North Sea. Where The greater North Sea is a large marine ecosystem (LME) of north western Europe (Fig. 1). It is relatively shallow (average depth of 90 m), but also includes deeper areas such as the Norwegian Trench (700 m). The North Sea has a temperate climate, with a south-north gradient of temperatures and depth, but in general the North Sea and its fringes are characterised by a high degree of variability, both spatially and temporally. This variability has a strong influence on biological systems and thus the whole marine ecosystem. Despite forming a typical LME, the North Sea opens largely to the North East Atlantic in the north and to the English Channel in the south. Low salinity water arrives from the Baltic through the Kattegat and the Skagerrak, and from the rivers directly entering the area. This relatively enclosed system shows a complex interaction between the degree of mixing in the water column, nutrients, light availability and algal abundance and productivity. This interaction and its natural variability are essential to the availability of different habitats and is thus reflected in the distribution of the sea’s living resources. How Governance has to contribute to spatial planning and accommodate transnational aspects as a means of assessing and reducing the risks from the way society uses the seas; each use or sector requires management both individually and in combination. As such VECTORS is focussing on fishing, climate, maritime traffic (related to the movement of alien species), conservation (including creating Marine Protected Areas), and marine energy (especially windfarms) and the interactions between these. The governance of the North Sea combines policy, politics, administration and legislation and the many and varied stakeholders have demands for present controls and management for both present and future problems. Those stakeholders therefore need an input to deciding likely future conditions and the solution to problems. For example, the Regional Advisory Committee has been identified as a unique negotiating forum for stakeholders although those will have to compromise to achieve a fisheries management plan. The future While VECTORS is considering future scenarios, the North Sea will require governance which can operate across national boundaries to give responses to the control of invasive species, the causes and consequences of blooms, changes to distributions and productivity, the reductions in ecosystem structure and functioning and hence possible non-compliance with the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive amongst others. This may reduce ecosystem services and reduce or increase benefits for society which in turn could adversely affect the ecosystem (for example an increase in tourism will impact on the natural system). Hence there is the need for balancing economic and ecological aspects. VECTORS VECTORS is a European project (26455) supported within Themes 2, 5, 6 and 7 of the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme Author This fact sheet was written by Mike Elliot of University of Hull, UK. E-mail: [email protected]