* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Effects of Drought on Farm Revenue: Eleven Western U.S. States
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Saskatchewan wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Effects of drought on farm revenue: Eleven Western US States Ballav Aryal, Washington State University The World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Report 2016 ranked water crises as the top ‘global risk of highest concern’ for the next 10 years. At the press conference after the report release, Cecilia Reyes, chief risk officer of one of the report contributors - Zurich Insurance Group, said that “Climate change is exacerbating more risks than ever before in terms of water crises, food shortages, constrained economic growth, weaker societal cohesion and increased security risks,”. Echoing that alarm, a recent survey of economic experts on climate change (Howard and Sylvan, 2015) found that climate change will begin to have or is already having a net negative impact on the global growth. A majority (94%) of the respondents predicted negative impacts on agriculture. However, Deschesnes and Greenstone (2007) measured the economic impact of climate change on US agriculture using USDA county level data on crop production and found that climate change increased farm profits by 4% annually. Goal The goal of this study is to investigate the relationship between drought and the contribution that farming makes to an economy. The conventional narrative of drought’s disastrous effects on the farm economy is flawed by ignoring price elasticity effects. Drought cuts crop production but when crop demand is inelastic enough, the drop in output can be more than offset by the increase in crop price. A cursory look at farm GDP and drought shows negative correlation between farm GDP and drought in California. In fact, the correlation coefficient between farm GDP and drought is negative in eight of the eleven Western states indicating that as drought increases, GDP increases. We will further examine the relationship between drought severity and agricultural economic outcomes for the eleven western states.