Download Climate Change Special Interest Group 2nd November 2016 The

Climate Change Special Interest Group
2nd November 2016
The Mansion House, Chiswell Green
PROGRAMME
10.00
Coffee
10.30
Welcome and Introduction (Richard Harrington)
Morning session Chair Dr Richard Harrington Hon FRES (Rothamsted Research)
10.40
Invited presentation: Dr Stephen Thackeray (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster)
Climate change and the seasonal activities of UK plants and animals
11.10
Dr Scott Hayward FRES (University of Birmingham)
Is winter coming? How climate warming can disrupt the diapause response
11.30
Dr Paul Parham (University of Liverpool)
Zika virus and the effects of El Nino
11.50
Dr Chris Sanders (The Pirbright Institute)
Climate-driven changes in the phenology of arbovirus vector Culicoides biting midges
12.10
Introductions to posters:
Dr Jake Bishop MemRes (University of Reading)
Impacts of weather variability on the activity and floral visitation of insect pollinators in
Europe
Liam Crowley MemRES (University of Birmingham)
Insects as key drivers of change in woodland systems under climate change
Tom David (Rothamsted Research)
Understanding the links between soil, plants and pollination
Simon Mills (University of Sheffield)
Latitudinal gradients in the importance of climate for determining population dynamics of
European butterflies
Vicki Senior (University of Sheffield)
Understanding the mechanisms driving insect population and community shifts; a focus on
sycamore and two associated aphid species: Drepanosiphum platanoidis and Periphyllus
testudinaceus
12.30
Lunch and Posters
Afternoon session Chair Professor Keith Walters FRES (Harper Adams Agricultural University and
Imperial College)
14.00
Invited presentation: Dr Ally Phillimore (University of Edinburgh):
Temperature-mediated phenological plasticity and local adaptation in UK butterflies
14.30
Dr Jon Bridle (University of Bristol)
Evolutionary shifts in host plant use in response to climate change in the UK Brown Argus
butterfly
14.50
Dr Lars Petterson MemRES (Lund University)
Restricted range expansions and high latitudes
15.10
Dr Julie Ewald (Game and Wildlife Conservation Trust)
Long-term changes in cereal invertebrates: extreme events, weather and pesticide use
15.30
Coffee
15.50
Dr Will Hentley MemRES (University of Sheffield)
Integrating behavioural responses into the climate change debate – examples from ladybirds
and aphids
16.10
Discussion (led by Dr Scott Hayward)
16.30
Close
Other delegates
Dr James Bell MemRES (Rothamsted Research)
Colin Hawes MemRES (Royal Holloway, University of London)
Dr Luke Tilley FRES (Royal Entomological Society)
Climate Change Special Interest Group
2nd November 2016
The Mansion House, Chiswell Green
ABSTRACTS (alphabetical)
Jake Bishop
University of Reading, UK
Impacts of weather variability on the activity and floral visitation of insect pollinators in Europe
I will present interim results of a project looking to increase understanding of how insect pollination
services are modified by weather variability, particularly extreme high temperatures. Recent studies
have developed our understanding of pollinator population and community changes under climate
change, however there is little evidence about responses of insect pollination to extreme weather
events which are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude. Many pollinator survey datasets
include recordings of temperature and other weather variables; we are using these as explanatory
variables for pollinator activity and floral visitation. We hypothesise that visitation will increase under
moderate temperatures but will decrease at higher temperatures beyond a certain critical threshold.
We expect that different taxa will show different response curves and temperature thresholds.
Characterising threshold temperatures across taxa, latitude and altitude, will allow us to predict how
frequently crop visitation will be inhibited by heat waves in the future using climate model projections
downscaled to sites across Europe.
Jon Bridle (1), James Buckley (2), Maaike de Jong (1)
(1) University of Bristol, UK
(2) ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
Evolutionary shifts in host plant use in response to climate change in the UK Brown Argus
butterfly
Species that depend on particular interactions with other species are typically declining in abundance
in the UK due to a combination of climate change and habitat fragmentation. The Brown Argus
butterfly is an exception, probably because rapid evolution in its host plant preference has allowed
populations to expand as suitable microclimates shift northwards. While butterflies in longestablished parts of their geographical range typically show a preference for laying their eggs on the
locally most abundant host plants, butterflies in recently-colonised areas show a consistent preference
for a host plant species that is geographically widespread in the region of expansion, even if locally
rare. Reciprocal transplant experiments also suggest that such adaptive variation in host preference
has been lost during this rapid range expansion. Our data demonstrate that future anthropogenic
warming is likely to bring about major restructurings of patterns of biodiversity within species, which
may limit the potential for populations to continue to evolve.
Liam Crowley
University of Birmingham
Insects as key drivers of change in woodland systems under climate change
The new Birmingham Institute of Forest Research (BIFoR) Free Atmosphere Carbon Enrichment
(FACE) provides an opportunity to investigate the responses of insects to a changing environment in a
mature temperate woodland system. This project will seek to elucidate the effects of elevated CO2 on
woodland insect communities and the associated impact on the complex ecology of the woodland
through their role as key ecosystem drivers. This will be achieved by assessing the impacts on
diversity, abundance, insect-mediated nutrient cycling and plant-pollinator interactions.
Tom David
Rothamsted Research, UK
Understanding the links between soil, plants and pollination.
Nitrogen deposition and soil acidification can cause dramatic shifts in plant community ecology.
Furthermore, the alteration of soil nutrition can affect the functional traits of plants. Therefore, the
deposition of atmospheric pollutants may be affecting other trophic levels through their interactions
with plants. Many species of wild pollinating insects are threatened by a multitude of drivers, and this
aspect of climate change may be a key factor in the health of pollinator communities. A more
complete understanding of how soil conditions affect pollinators is required in order to fully
comprehend the trends of distributions and abundances going into the future. The Park Grass LongTerm Experiment, a unique field site at Rothamsted Research, is a fantastic resource for which to
study this trophic interaction.
Julie A. Ewald (1), Nicholas J. Aebischer (1), Ryan A. Burrell (1),
Stephen J. Moreby (1), Dick G.R. Potts (1), Christopher J. Wheatley (1, 2)
(1) Game and Wildlife Conservation Trust, UK
(2) University of York, UK
Long-term changes in cereal invertebrates: extreme events, weather and pesticide use
The GWCT has been collecting information on the abundance of cereal invertebrates since 1970 as
part of its long-running Sussex Study. We investigated the sensitivity and resilience of invertebrates
in cereal fields to extreme weather events and examined the effect of long-term changes in
temperature, rainfall and pesticide use on invertebrate abundance from 1970 to 2011. Of the 26
invertebrate groups examined, eleven proved sensitive to extreme weather events but numbers quickly
recovered to their long-term trend in abundance. Some long-term trends in invertebrate abundance
correlated with spring temperature and rainfall, indicating that climate change may affect their
abundance. However, echoing the findings of the recent State of Nature Report, agricultural
intensification, measured as changes in pesticide use, explained a greater proportion of the annual
variation in abundance. This suggests that reduced pesticide use may mitigate some of the long-term
declines in cereal invertebrate abundance identified in the Sussex Study. For further details,
see: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13026/full .
Scott A. L. Hayward, Paul C. Coleman, Bobbie Johnson, Emily L. Owen
University of Birmingham (UK)
Is winter coming? How climate warming can disrupt the diapause response
At temperate latitudes a specialized state of dormancy, termed diapause, is used as an overwintering
strategy by virtually all insects. Photoperiod is the dominant environmental cue programming
diapause, with the short days of late summer and early autumn signalling the advent of winter. This
means diapause induction often occurs well in advance of adverse conditions and sometimes even in
the generation preceding the actual diapausing stage. Temperature also plays an important role
influencing the decision to enter diapause, as well as affecting many key diapause characteristics such
as duration and stress tolerance. Thus, climate warming potentially poses a significant problem, as it
could decouple the relationship between photoperiodic and temperature cues resulting in ambiguous
signals about when winter is coming. Here I discuss how the programming of diapause can be
disrupted by elevated temperatures as well as the downstream effects on cold stress physiology and
winter survival. We identified that differences of just 5°C during the adult sensitive stage in
Calliphora vicina dramatically alter the diapause characteristics of their progeny, and the capacity of
these 3rd instar larvae to survive winter. We also investigated how different autumn and winter
microclimates alter patterns of diapause termination and spring emergence – leaving individuals
susceptible to extreme spring cold events. The talk will also discuss implications for key ecosystem
service providers such as pollinators.
Will Hentley
University of Sheffield, UK
Integrating behavioural responses into the climate change debate – examples from ladybirds
and aphids
The responses of individual species to climate change form the basis of our predictions for the
impacts on ecosystems. In reality, natural systems are a complex network of interconnected species.
Each link of the network is, in itself, complex and essential to the functioning of the system.
Behavioural interactions are key components of intra- and interspecific interactions, but are often
overlooked. I will present examples of the importance of these overlooked interactions from a
predator (ladybird) – prey (aphid) study system. The first will be the escape responses of aphids to
ladybird predation under elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2). It was found that aphid escape responses
to ladybird predation are significantly reduced under eCO2. I will then use an example from
competitive interactions between native and invasive ladybird species to demonstrate how even a
subtle change in behaviour could have a significant impact on population dynamics. Attempts to
predict or generalise climate change will therefore need to take into account behavioural interactions
between species in addition to the responses of individual species.
Simon Mills
University of Sheffield, UK
Latitudinal gradients in the importance of climate for determining population dynamics of
European butterflies
Establishing the relative importance of climatic factors in driving population dynamics is crucial for
understanding how populations will be affected by a changing climate. However, studies that have
attempted directly to link climatic factors to inter-annual population dynamics often generate variable
conclusions, with climatic variables ranging from strongly regulating to relatively unimportant
relative to other factors such as density dependence. I use data from five European butterfly
monitoring schemes to assess whether, for 11 univoltine species, this variation in climatic sensitivity
is explained by range-position, with the hypothesis that populations towards the range edge display
relatively greater sensitivity to climatic variables than those in the centre. Results suggest that
populations towards the latitudinal range edges are more sensitive to changes in climatic conditions
than those nearer the centre of the species’ distribution, and this is not just a function of reduced
density dependence effects in these areas. Additionally, asymmetries in this latitudinal relationship
suggest southern range edge populations to be particularly sensitive to ongoing climate change. The
existence of latitudinal variation in climatic sensitivity further suggests that conclusions drawn from
any individual population may be limited, as they will vary based on range-position.
Paul Parham (1), Shlomit Paz (2)
(1) University of Liverpool, UK
(2) University of Haifa, Israel
Zika virus and the effects of El Nino
El Nino is known to be associated with changes in the spatiotemporal dynamics of mosquito-borne
diseases such as malaria and dengue fever, as well as infectious diseases such as cholera. Although
other transmission routes are now known to exist, Zika virus is known to be transmitted primarily by
Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, the population dynamics of which are strongly driven by climatic variables
due to the influence of temperature and precipitation on vector life-history parameters. In a recent
paper, Paz and Semenza identified a striking overlap between temperature and precipitation anomalies
and the early spread of Zika cases in Brazil; in this talk, we present some work-in-progress on a
formal time-series analysis of this climate-incidence association across multiple countries for the
current Zika epidemic.
Markus Franzén (1,2), Lars B. Pettersson (2), Nils Ryrholm (3), Oliver Schweiger (1), Per-Eric
Betzholtz (4)
(1) UFZ Centre for Environmental Research, Halle, Germany
(2) Lund University, Sweden,
(3) University of Gävle, Sweden,
(4) Linnaeus University, Kalmar, Sweden
Restricted range expansions at high latitudes
Climate change is the major driver behind recent poleward shifts of species trying to keep pace with
changing conditions. Since the increase in temperature is greater at high latitudes, range expansions
should be boosted in these areas. However, environmental variables, e.g. low available energy,
photoperiodic time constraints and increased precipitation, may limit poleward shift by reducing
activity and survival. Thus, it is not clear how species can actually respond to changing climates at
higher latitudes. Here, we analyse the range expansion velocity during a 40-year period (1973-2013)
in 571 species of Swedish butterfly and moth species in relation to latitudinal bands (55-69 °N),
velocity of temperature change, and other potentially relevant environmental variables. We show that
the velocity of range change lags behind the velocity of temperature change at all latitudinal bands,
and that this lag increases with latitude. We suggest this is due to environmental factors limiting
dispersal and/or colonisation success. In ectothermic organisms such as lepidopterans prevalent
temperatures and available ambient energy at high latitudes may, despite climate warming, still be too
low to boost range expansions because of thermal constraints on survival and reproduction. In Sweden
there is also a transition in biomes at latitude 60 °N, from the boreo-nemoral to the boreal zone. The
availability and connectivity of suitable habitats for boreo-nemoral species will therefore be
significantly reduced within the boreal biome. We argue that these factors may considerably limit
poleward range expansions at higher latitudes and thus prevent species from sufficiently keeping track
with changing climates.
Ally Phillimore
University of Edinburgh, UK
Temperature-mediated phenological plasticity and local adaptation in UK butterflies
As temperatures vary in space and time this may generate variation in optimum timing. Populations
may be able to partially or completely track shifts in the optimum via phenotypic plasticity and
adaptive genetic change. I will talk about some methods that I have helped to develop that aim to
tease apart the contributions of plasticity and genetic change using only spatiotemporal observational
data. I will present results from two studies of butterflies that both infer the existence of pronounced
phenological plasticity and local adaptation. I will also discuss the challenges and pitfalls of this
statistical approach.
Christopher Sanders (1), Chris Shortall (2), Marion England (1), Richard Harrington (2), Beth
Purse (3), Laura Burgin (4), Simon Gubbins (1), Simon Carpenter (1)
(1) The Pirbright Institute, Woking, UK
(2) Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, UK
(3) Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK
(4) UK Met Office, Exeter, UK
Climate-driven changes in the phenology of arbovirus vector Culicoides biting midges
The seasonal incidence and abundance of arthropod vectors is a key determinant of the timing,
intensity and spread of arthropod-borne virus outbreaks. Transmitted by the bites of Culicoides biting
midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), the emergence of bluetongue virus (BTV) in Europe in the last 20
years has been suggested as an example of a step-change in disease distribution due to a changing
climate. Whilst there have been no observed changes in the range of the Culicoides vectors of BTV in
northern Europe, anecdotal evidence suggests that Culicoides are now active for a longer period in the
UK than in previous years. The Rothamsted suction-trap network has been used previously to monitor
Culicoides activity and describe seasonality of Culicoides flight with meteorological conditions. Here
we utilise this resource to investigate changes in the abundance and seasonality of Culicoides at two
sites in the UK over a period of 40 years and examine the implications this has for the transmission of
BTV and other Culicoides-borne viruses.
Vicki Senior
University of Sheffield, UK
Understanding the mechanisms driving insect population and community shifts; a focus on
sycamore and two associated aphid species: Drepanosiphum platanoidis and Periphyllus
testudinaceus
Many species interactions have a temporal component which is driven by environmental cues.
Climate change is having a differential impact between functional groups and trophic levels and there
is concern that this may drive shifts in community and ecosystem dynamics. The mechanisms driving
phenological mismatches are largely unexplored and there are few long-term field studies which have
been able to consider trophic mismatch of species in the same spatial area. Here a 20-year data series
on Sycamore (Acer pseudoplatanus) and two associated aphid species, the sycamore aphid
(Drepanosiphum platanoidis) and the common periphyllus aphid (Periphyllus testudinaceus) is
examined. Data are taken from a 100ha deciduous woodland in Silwood Park, Berkshire and facilitate
an in-depth analysis of the effects of climate change between and within trophic levels. An
investigation into how changes in climatic variables, such as spring and winter chilling, alter
interactions between these three species was conducted. A moving window approach using
accumulated day degrees across spring was used to determine when temperature is most important in
driving sycamore bud burst and spring emergence in these two aphid species. The findings suggest
that spring temperature is a strong predictor of sycamore phenology. P. testudinaceus showed a
weaker response and D. platanoidis phenology had no association with spring temperature. No
influence of winter chilling was found for temporal trends in all three species. Cumulative day
degrees in March and April were the best predictor of sycamore phenology, whereas P. testudinaceus
phenology was best predicted by cumulative day degrees between mid-April and the end of May. The
differential response to temperature shown by these aphids and their host plant indicate that aphid
populations may be affected as a result of a phenological mismatch either through starvation, reduced
nutritional suitability of sycamore or a shift in interaction dynamics between the two aphid species.
Stephen Thackeray
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster, UK
Climate change and the seasonal activities of UK plants and animals
Over the last few decades, the seasonal timing of many biological events has shifted. The study of
such changes, phenology, has been used as a barometer of the impacts of climate change. However,
species and populations show much variation in their responses to climate. In this talk, I will present
results from a recent project that aimed to reveal high-level patterns in the climate sensitivity of
seasonal events typifying the activities of different species groups. I will also consider the impacts of
shifting seasons on species interactions, and future directions for this fascinating area of research.
Climate Change Special Interest Group
2nd November 2016
The Mansion House, Chiswell Green
DELEGATE LIST
James Bell
Jake Bishop
Jon Bridle
Liam Crowley
Tom David
Julie Ewald
Richard Harrington
Colin Hawes
Scott Hayward
Will Hentley
Simon Mills
Paul Parham
Lars Pettersson
Ally Phillimore
Chris Sanders
Vicki Senior
Stephen Thackeray
Luke Tilley
Keith Walters
Rothamsted Research
University of Reading
University of Bristol
University of Birmingham
Rothamsted Research
GWCT Fordingbridge
Rothamsted Research
Royal Holloway
University of Birmingham
University of Sheffield
University of Sheffield
University of Liverpool
Lund University
University of Edinburgh
The Pirbright Institute
University of Sheffield
CEH Lancaster
Royal Entomological Society
Imperial Coll., Harper Adams
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