Download Module 1: UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHANGE Contents

Module 1:
UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHANGE
Contents
Module 1A: World Views on Humans and Nature .............................................................................. 2
Module 1B: Weather and Climate...................................................................................................... 9
Module 1C: Climate Change and Disasters ....................................................................................... 29
Module 1D: The Social Dimensions of Climate Change ..................................................................... 40
July 2013
Knowledge and Training Resource Center on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction
Cordillera Studies Center
University of the Philippines Baguio
Module 1A: World Views on Humans and Nature
Prepared by:
Leticia M. Estrada-Tolentino
Department of History and Philosophy
College of Social Sciences
University of the Philippines Baguio
Many studies have shown that the Philippines is disaster-trapped. Sitting on one
section of the Pacific Ring of Fire and hosting more than a thousand tropical cyclones
each year, the country has, year after year, reeled from the effects of disasters. While
Filipinos are by nature resilient in the face of countless calamities and disasters they
experience, the loss of lives and properties cause unimaginable suffering. The poor,
including women and children, compose the lot, and the misery and the helplessness
these experience compound the effects these disasters and calamities bring.
Numerous studies have likewise reported that many of these disasters and
calamities could have been averted. Ignorance, neglect and indifference have aggravated
these occurrences. The leitmotif of conditions and attitudes has, in effect, heightened the
magnitude of disasters and calamities and has left tremendous implications on the lives
of people. Most disasters are claimed to be anthropogenic. In what ways and why?
These are questions sought to be answered by this module.
This module specifically seeks to present a chronological account of various
worldviews about humans and nature. It also endeavours to underscore the
chronological implications of these world views and their adverse effects on nature,
thereby in the end, provide a model of the right attitude toward nature.
A. THE ANCIENT PERIOD: THE PRESOCRATICS
The dawn of history has generated a variety of noble and mysterious views of
nature, humans and the world. It is common contention during this period that
the world in general came from the gods and every facet of the world including
nature was dominated by a particular deity. Each deity held humans spellbound
by their power and influence. Through this power and influence, humans
orchestrated their activities and ordered their day-to-day lives according to the
gods. Nature was blessed or cursed by the gods depending on humans’ conduct.
They can sow prosperity and well-being as well as poverty and ill-health; they
can reward or punish and cause human happiness or suffering. It was in this
accord that humans and nature existed. The mutuality, respect, not to mention
adulation and wonder on the part of humans, marked the ancient period.
To the early Greeks, the world too was a source of observation and speculation.
The notion of the URSTOFF played a key role in their understanding of the world.
Thales, for instance, saw the abundance of water surrounding Greece and so in
the process concluded that water was the basic stuff or ‘urstoff’ that made the
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world. Coupled by this observation was his belief that nothing survived without
it. Just like Thales, another son of Miletus also observed the boundless, limitless
universe. The gamut of changes around him that Anaximander perceived caused
him to wonder. “What causes this alternation of qualities which, whether rapid
or slow, goes on ceaselessly in the natural world?"1
Thus was born his concept of the APEIRON, the unlimited potentialities which
account for the “innumerable changes that make up the incessant ongoingness of the
world. And being qualitatively unlimited it is logically superior to any and every kind of
particularity.”2
The third among the Milesian philosophers contended that it is air as the
“prototype of reality.” Wheelwright cites a fragment from Anaximenes’ writings to
corroborate this point: “As our souls, being air, holds us together, so breath and air
embrace the entire universe.”3
Presocratic philosophy or Ionic Philosophy is essentially termed natural
philosophy or cosmology since they delved into the first principle of the universe which
they called ‘arche.’ “They first raised the question of the basic substance underlying all
things, to which the three Milesians gave different answers.” 4
From the notion of the first principle or ‘arche’ and the basic substance or
‘urstoff’, the problem of change or flux, and with it the problem of being and becoming
penetrated the Greek mind. Conscious of the ever-evolving nature of the world and
everything in it, the Greeks realized that the word nature “is not as something complete
and finished, but rather as something still in the stage of formation and growth, as a
process.”5
“The Greek always imagined nature as animate. On the mythical plane,
everything, land and sea, mountains and rivers, trees and bush were all for him full of
divine beings; on the philosophic plane he imagined all matter as animate, not excepting
even stones, for they too develop a force. . . The problem of life and mind does not exist
for these thinkers, for everything is living and infused although in varying degrees with
mind. A nature deprived of the vital principle was for the Greek unimaginable.” 6
To the Greeks then, every person strives for wisdom and leads toward an
unblemished, irreproachable life. He chooses to avoid transgressions of any kind toward
nature and toward his fellow humans. He aims at peace and serenity or ATARAXIA and
contemplates on nature and everything about her and within her. He “accompanies the
moon, the sun and the rotations of the other stars. (Their) bodies remain on earth, but
1
Philip Wheelwright, (ed.) The Presocratics. (New York: Odyssey Press, Inc. 1966), p. 55
Ibid.
33
Anaximenes, in Wheelwright, p. 61.
4
Zeller, Eduard, Outlines of the History of Greek Philosophy. (New York: Meridian Books, Inc., 1960), p. 40.
5
Ibid.
6
Ibid., pp. 40-41.
2
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they give wings to their souls, so that rising into the ether, they may observe the powers
which dwell there, as is fitting for those who have truly become citizens of the world.
The world is their city, and the citizens are the companions of wisdom; they have
received their civic rights from virtue, which has been entrusted with presiding over the
universal commonwealth.”7
The Greek way of life comprised of a universal cosmological consciousness or
PHUSIS that linked nature, humans and their city or community. This linkage
manifested as a way of living. Wisdom was the metaphysical norm which guided their
actions. “We are part of the cosmos, and the consequent dilation of our self throughout
the infinity of universal nature.”8 An Epicurean disciple has aptly put this when he said:
“Although you are mortal, and have only a limited life-span, yet you have risen through
the contemplation of nature, to the infinity of space and time, and you have seen all the
past and all the future.”9
THE SOPHISTS
The advent of the Sophists changed the spectrum of Greek thought. From the
former preoccupation with the cosmos, the universe or the world, a transformation
dawned. It concentrated on humans. The wonderment about the world ceased; man
became the focus and the locus of attention and contention. Man became the center of
the universe – he knows and he rules – the only one who tops the evolutionary ladder.
While admittedly, the Sophists pioneered the task of education, realizing the importance
of humans and their roles in practical and political life, the shock they have rendered to
Socrates and his followers was notable. Their individualism and demagoguery, to
Socrates’ mind, were unGreek in nature and have caused quite a stir.
Protagoras’ concept of ‘homo mensura’ or man is the measure of all things gave
man the highest and noblest status no being in the world has ever attained. Nature or
the world is not an equal of man because nature has become subservient to his needs.
Nature exists and assumes significance because of man. Nature, hence, has become the
web that man controls and occupies, uses and profits from. Truly, humans’ entry into
the world caused the decline of nature.
THE WISDOM PHILOSOPHERS
The perpetuation of man’s dominion over nature because of his reason attained
its zenith during the time of Socrates, Plato and Aristotle. The emphasis on man’s
rational faculty marked his demarcation from the rest of the world. The Platonian
concept of the two worlds just proves this point. According to Plato, the world of ideas is
7
Pierre Hadot, Philosophy as a Way of Life, (London: Blackwell Pblishing, 2010), 264,
8
Ibid. P. 266.
Ibid.
9
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the only genuine world. The world of sensation or the material world is chimeral; it is
simply a photocopy of the world of mind. Because it is chimeral; it is false; It is only
secondary knowledge since “it is a distorted reflection of the eternal and immutable
world of forms.”10 The world of forms or ideas is an absolute, perfect, and unchanging
world. It is the only source of true or genuine knowledge.
This world view corroborates what Dobzhansky intimates as the downright
disregard for the material world. If Plato considers the world as ‘mere distortion,’ then
the material world cannot be trusted. Our perception may lie, and therefore, should be
under the control of mind or reason. This intellectual snobbery connotes that anything
that does not pass the rational test does not merit acceptance nor recognition.
Dobzhansky concludes: 11
The universe began with a distant Age of Gold, and then degenerated to an Age of
Iron.
B. THE MEDIEVAL PERIOD
Christianity has postulated another world view. It is one that demystified man ‘s
reason and brought him a notch lower than what humans expected. The glory that
humans enjoyed being at the top of the evolutionary ladder has been transformed
into the fall of humans needing redemption. Christianity, among all religions, accepts
this Fall of humans but also warrants their progressive rise to attain what St.
Augustine calls The City of God.
In this context, nature was seen as a companion to man. It becomes his source of
provision and sustenance, his comfort and shelter and in everything that man
desires. Both man and nature emanated from God. God exists through them. They
are creatures made in His image and likeness, and therefore possess the God’s divine
characteristics. God has created everything and eventually everything returns to
Him in the end. Respect for life and everything in possession of life became a
religious mandate, but since man culturally developed further and farther through
time, this religious mandate received relative interpretation from humans.
C. MODERN AND CONTEMPORARY WORLDVIEWS
“Man is a biological species and the most extraordinary product of the process.
He is essentially unique; his uniqueness lies on having evolved Culture. It is his
exclusive property.”12 This notion essentially depicts a contrast between the ancient
sage and contemporary man. While the “ancient sage or sophos was conscious of
living in the cosmos as such and placed himself in harmony with the cosmos,”
contemporary man lives content in the glorifying context of technology and the rape
10
Theodosius Dobzhansky, The Biological Basis of Human Freedom. (New York: Columbia University Press,
1960), p. 4.
11
Ibid.
12
Op.cit.
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of nature to serve his multifarious ends. Nature was abused to the hilt, with
unabated human activities that resulted not only to the depletion of natural
resources but also to the continuous destruction of nature and the environment.
IMPLICATIONS OF THESE WORLDVIEWS
The foregoing worldviews have outlined three major attitudes of humans
towards nature and the world as a whole. First, Protagoras, the founder of the
Sophists, and his notion of HOMO MENSURA created the “attitude (that) centered on
humankind and the rest of nature as being there for the good of humans.”13 This is
called ANTHROPOCENTRISM. Nature is there for the use of man. We look at nature
including other humans as objects to meet and satisfy our needs, to exploit and
manipulate to achieve our ends. It is consequently both utilitarian and pragmatic.
Countless disasters and even calamities that befell humans are anthropogenic. It
is the attitude that humans, due to neglect, ignorance and indifference towards
nature and their environment, have perpetrated or inadvertently done that create
disasters or even calamities to happen. The load of trash indiscriminately disposed
of or thrown along riverbanks and other waterways, along empty yards and other
premises have been disgraceful manifestations that come from humans – the socalled highest and the noblest of God’s creatures. The continuous creation and
perpetration of technological discoveries that are harmful to humans and nature
itself go beyond our wildest imagination. These are just a few examples of conditions
that perpetuate disasters and calamities to occur and the list goes on. But, the
question remains - If this world is our only dwelling place, and nature itself has so
blessed humans with an infinite array of blessings, how come we have been so
sanitized and unaffected by the negative, global conditions that beset us?
The second attitude is BIOCENTRISM. It is the belief and attitude that all life is
interconnected. The early Greeks have shown evidences of this view. The whole of
nature and the world and humans comprise a unity. As such respect for all that
dwells within merits not only respect and consideration..
And lastly, THEOCENTRISM – the attitude that by virtue of each being a creature
of God, each has a rightful place in the world. Humans have the moral and the
intellectual endowments to serve as responsible caretakers of God’s domain. As
caring and responsible citizens of the world, they follow the religious mandate of
being protectors and conservers of their environment and the whole of nature.
Following the biocentric perspective, theocentrism presupposes that everything has
innate worth regardless of what and how humans perceive them. This intrinsic
worth of nature contrasts with the anthropocentric view where humans perceive
themselves as apart from the world and that nature per se can be used by man in
13
Bryant, La Velle and Searle, 2005.
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manifold ways to suit his ends. This extrinsic view of nature and the world has had
tremendous ramifications we experience today.
The future of nature is in the balance and so with the future of the next
generations. What could be done to avert the propensity of greater disasters or even
calamities to arise? Paul W. Taylor provides a possible solution.
THE LIFE-CENTERED THEORY OF ETHICS
The problems that confront humanity today in great proportions have resulted
in environmental ethics – “the discipline in philosophy that studies the moral
relationship of human beings to, and also the value and moral status of the environment
and its nonhuman contents.”14 In 1981, Paul Taylor crafted his Life-Centered Theory of
Ethics which sought to inculcate among humans “an ultimate moral attitude towards
nature.” 15 Taylor believed that all life is interconnected. Humans and the whole of
nature comprise the web of life that mutually sustains and supports each other. He
belies the concepts of efficiency and practicality that ground themselves on the idea of
instrumentality. Respect for nature and the whole life forms constitute his foundational
belief.
His ethical theory is composed of two elements, namely:16
That every organism, species population, and community of life has a good of its
own which moral agents can intentionally further or damage by their actions. To
say that an entity has a good of its own is simply to say that, without reference to
any other entity, it can be benefitted or harmed. . . What is good for an entity is
what ‘does it good’ in the sense of enhancing or preserving its life and well-being.
What is bad for an entity i something that is detrimental to its life and well-being.
The emphasis laid by Taylor in his ethical theory lies mainly on the word
‘intentionality.’ Human beings are conscious of the potential impact of their
actions. WE cannot deny or ignore the implications of our actions whether they
maintain or destroy life. It is rather paradoxical how some of us can remain
unruffled by the gravity of some of our actions. Simone de Beauvoir corroborates
this when she said: Man is “one who remains indifferent to the content , that is, to
the human meaning of his action, one who thinks he can assert his own existence
without taking into account that of others.”17
Invariably, this notion of ‘others’ may very well include nature and the
horrendous implications this notion of human insensitivity brings become
unthinkable.
14
Brennan and Lo, 2011.
Paul W. Taylor, The Ethics of Respect for Nature; A Theory of Environmental Ethics. (Princeton: Princeton
University Press, 1986), p. 199.
16
Ibid.
17
Simone de Beauvoir, Ethics of Ambiguity, 1966.
15
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One noteworthy thesis in Taylor’s theory is how the environment or nature can
possibly respond if humans disappeared from the earth. Taylor writes: 18
Indeed, from their standpoint the very existence of humans is quite unnecessary.
Every last man, woman, and child could disappear from the face of the earth
without any significant detrimental consequence for the good of wild animals
and plants. On the contrary, many of them would be benefitted. The destruction
of their habitats by ‘human developments’ would cease. The poisoning and
polluting of their environment would come to an end. The Earth’s, air, and water
would no longer be subject to the degradation they are now undergoing as the
result of the large-scale technology and uncontrolled population growth.
The dependence of humans on nature is undeniable. The benevolence of nature
on humans has been requited however with human arrogance or HYBRIS and
malevolence done in the name of development and progress.
In connection to the above, therefore, Taylor proposes an ethical attitude toward
nature that humans should develop. To wit: 19
1. Adoption of a certain ultimate moral attitude toward nature which is called
‘respect for nature.’
2. The creation of a belief system that constitutes a way of conceiving the
natural world and our place in it.
3. The development of a system of rules and standards for guiding our
treatment of those ecosystems and life communities, a set of normative
principles which give concrete embodiment or expression to the attitude of
respect for nature.
While Taylor has provided a liberal formulation of his theory, it has stirred the
genesis of innumerable ideas, inspiring numerous ethical works and perspectives to
emerge. Taylor’s ethical theory has intimated the ‘humbling of man’ in the grand scheme
of things. It views man not as the center of the universe, not as homo mensura, not as
measure of things, but as one among the many spectacular creations of God.
The recognition of the inherent worth and the innate ability of all things for selfdetermination is an eye-opener. Although Taylor did not provide a set of specific
formulations to flesh out his theory, his suggestion could very well be studied and
become a springboard for ideas to develop the moral attitude he endorses. The
supremacy of humans have laid great stress on nature and the world. And, unless, we
address the problems wrought by this supremacy, we will surely be in for more stresses
and problems, probably much greater than we have today.
18
19
Op. Cit., 208.
Ibid.
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Module 1B: Weather and Climate
Prepared by:
Ian Jasper A. Agulo
Department of Physical Sciences
University of the Philippines Baguio
I. Brief Description
The study of weather and climate is very important to everyday living. Understanding
the differences between them and the parameters to describe them is essential in order to help
us plan our everyday life. Weather and climate affects the decisions that we need to make, the
crops that we grow in a particular place, aircraft and maritime operations, the architecture, and
even our culture and our physical attributes! This module begins with the definition of weather
and climate, followed by a description of the various factors that create and affect our weather,
finishing with how these factors are measured.
II. Learning Objectives
At the end of the module, the participants are expected to:
1. Understand the basics of the science of weather and climate
2. Determine and explain the various variables that are used to describe the
weather
3. Know how to interpret the weather variables
III. Materials needed: DLP, laptop, laser pointer
IV. Time required: 45 minutes
V. Content
A. What is weather and climate?
Weather is the state or condition of the atmosphere at any given place over a short
period of time. The period of time can last from a couple of hours to a few days. For example, if
we expect rain in Baguio the next day, we refer to this as tomorrow’s weather. Climate, on the
other hand, refers to the average weather pattern in a give place over a long period of time. In
the Philippines, we know that the rainy season in the Philippines begins in June, is at its peak
during the months of August and September, and levels down during the month of November.
We also know that the months of December to February are the coldest months during the year,
and that March signals the beginning of the hot season. This yearly pattern of weather
behaviour is what we refer to as the climate.
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The figure below shows the effect of climate on the terrain. It drives the various regions
to become wet or dry or arid depending on its location relative to the equator. Each region with
the same color is called a zone. Thus, the green zone corresponds to the tropical wet zone,
wherein the Philippines is part of. The figure below shows several zones such as tropical wet,
tropical dry, semiarid, arid (dry and hot all year round), Mediterranean (mild winters and dry
hot summers), marine west coast, humid subtropical, cool summer, subarctic, tundra
(mountains, which are very cold all year round), highlands and ice zone.
Figure 1. World Climate according to Climatic Zones. The Philippines is within the Tropical Wet
Zone.
B. How do we describe our weather?
We typically describe our weather by talking about what the temperature is, how humid
our environment is, how calm or strong the winds are, and if there are changes in the ambient
pressure. Sometimes, we simply look at the sky and see if the sun is up or if clouds are present
or not. However, looking at the sky will only give us a qualitative rough estimate of the weather
and in some, if not most, cases provide an inaccurate description of what is going to happen in
our environment in the next couple of hours. We therefore need to quantify these parameters in
order to improve the accuracy of our description.
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Figure 2. Storm brewing over a populated area – or are they just clouds passing by? The only
way to be sure is to measure environmental parameters.
What parameters do we use to describe the weather?
1. Temperature
This parameter describes how hot or cold our environment is. In the
Philippines, we use the unit of degrees Celsius (°C) to describe the temperature.
A thermometer is used to measure temperature. There are various types of
thermometers depending on the application and the range of temperature
required by the application. Previous thermometers used to measure body and
ambient temperature were mercury-based. However, due to the potential health
hazards of mercury, such thermometers are no longer recommended for use.
Nowadays, semiconductor-based thermometers are accurate, cheap and easily
be bought off the shelf.
The average temperature in the Philippines is around 27°C, with a
temperature variation of about 10°C throughout the year. The average
temperature in Baguio is around 19°C, also with a temperature variation of about
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10°C all year round. The temperature variation means that in Baguio, for
example, the temperature can be as low as 9°C and as high as 29°C.
Figure 3. Minimum and maximum temperatures in Baguio City, Philippines in
2013.
The temperature is affected by the location of a particular place relative to
the equator and its height relative to sea level. The picture below shows the
variation of temperature with respect to vertical location relative to sea level.
According to the picture, if the temperature in Manila (sea level) is about 18°C,
the temperature in Baguio would be about 11°C. At the top of Mt. Pulag, it would
be about 0°C. These temperatures are typical temperatures in Manila, Baguio and
Mt. Pulag during the month of January. At the top of Mt. Everest (the tallest
mountain on our planet), the temperature could go down below -20°C, which is
why people need to wear protective thermal clothing when climbing Mt. Everest.
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Figure 4. The variation of temperature on relative height with respect to sea level. The
arrows indicate the relative heights of Baguio City and Mt. Pulag, Kabayan, Benguet and
the corresponding temperatures [insert reference number].
2. Humidity
Humidity describes how wet or how dry the air is. In other words, it
describes the amount of water vapour that is present in the air. The presence of
water vapour in the air is important due to the property of water to take in heat.
Water is actually very good in absorbing heat. Thus, the higher the amount of
water vapour in the air (or humidity), the more heat is present.
Humidity is quantified relative to a certain standard, and is expressed in
percent relative humidity. A 100% relative humidity means that the air is
completely filled with water vapour. A 35% relative humidity means that there is
more dry air than water vapour. The Philippines, being a tropical country, has an
average relative humidity of ... In Baguio, the average relative humidity is ...
One can actually quantify the degree of comfort or discomfort that a
person might feel based on the temperature and relative humidity of the
environment. Generally, Manila has a high relative humidity, and on a hot day,
we all feel a certain discomfort when travelling to Manila under such conditions.
However, at night, even though the humidity can be relatively high, it can become
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quite comfortable. Thus, there is an interplay between comfort and the
combination of the effects of temperature and relative humidity. This dynamics
is described in the figure below, which depicts the humidex. Basically, a humidex
of 29 is still comfortable to the feel, while a humidex of 30 and above is rather
unpleasant.
As an example, on a hot day in Baguio, when the temperature is 25°C and
a relative humidity of 55%, the humidex is 29. Under these conditions, we should
still feel comfort. On the other hand, at the same temperature at night in Manila
with a relative humidity of 70%, the feeling is rather “sticky” and unpleasant.
These conditions describe a humidex of 32.
Figure 5. Degree of comfort based on the temperature and relative humidity in
ambient air.
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3. Pressure
Pressure is the amount of force that is exerted by air over a particular
area. Yes, indeed, air exerts pressure on us. We feel this increase in air pressure
when we travel from Baguio to Manila, when our ears pop as it adjusts to the
changing air pressure. This means that air pressure is dependent on the distance
relative to sea level. The figure below shows the dependence of pressure on
altitude. As shown in the figure, at the same altitude as Mt. Pulag, the air density
has already decreased by as much as 20%! That’s 20% less oxygen at an altitude
of about 3 km. This is the reason why it is easy for people from the lowlands to
run out of breath at high altitudes – they actually breath in less air than what
they are used to. At an altitude, equivalent to the height of Mt. Everest, the air
pressure may decrease by as much as 72%! This is also the reason why a lot of
unexperienced climbers pass out and why back-up oxygen tanks are required
when climbing up Mt. Everest.
Figure 6. Pressure and density relative to altitude.
Pressure is measured by means of a device called a barometer. The units
of pressure may be in atm (atmosphere), psi (pounds per square inch), or more
typically bar or mbar (millibar). The standard atmosphere at sea level is about 1
atm or 1013 mbar or 14.7 psi.
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Pressure is also a very good indicator of incoming weather disturbance. If
a storm is nearby, it tends to pull air from the surrounding into it. This causes the
pressure of the surrounding to decrease. This basic idea may be a basis for
predicting if a storm is coming.
By carefully watching the pressure on a barometer, you can forecast local weather
using these simple guidelines:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Decreasing barometric pressure indicates storms, rain and windy weather.
Rising barometric pressure indicates good, dry, and colder weather.
Slow, regular and moderate falls in pressure suggest a low pressure area is
passing in a nearby region. Marked changes in the weather where you are
located are unlikely.
Small rapid decreases in pressure indicate a nearby change in weather. They
are usually followed by brief spells of wind and showers.
A quick drop in pressure over a short time indicates a storm is likely in 5 to 6
hours.
Large, slow and sustained decreasing pressure forecasts a long period of
poor weather. The weather will be more pronounced if the pressure started
rising before it began to drop.
A rapid rise in pressure, during fair weather and average, or above average
pressure, indicates a low pressure cell is approaching. The pressure will soon
decrease forecasting poorer weather.
Quickly rising pressure, when the pressure is low, indicates a short period of
fair weather is likely.
A large, slow and sustained rise in pressure forecasts a long period of good
weather is on its way.
4. Wind speed
The wind speed is measured by means of an anemometer and has units of
km/h (kilometres per hour) or m/s (meters per second). An anemometer
basically has three semispherical cups placed vertically and connected together
at one end along a vertical axis. Thus, when the wind hits any one of the cups, it
causes the anemometer to rotate. The wind speed can then be inferred from the
anemometer’s speed of rotation. The figure below shows what an anemometer
looks like.
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Figure 7. A wind vane to measure wind direction and an anemometer to measure
wind speed.
Wind speed describes the strength of the approaching storm. The
Beaufort scale below graphically shows the effect of wind speed on the
landscape. In the Philippines, we normally have our own weather scale.
5. Wind direction
This parameter refers to where the direction the wind is going. Both wind
speed and wind direction can give us information on where and when an
approaching storm will reach a certain location. The wind direction is measured
by a wind vane (see above figure). The wind vane is initially set-up to point
towards the magnetic North pole.
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1
PUBLIC
STORM
WARNING
SIGNAL
A tropical cyclone will
affect the locality with
wind speeds of 30-60
kph in at least 36 hours
METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS





Twigs and branches of small trees
may be broken.
Some banana plants may be tilted or
downed.
Some houses of very light materials
(nipa and cogon) may be partially
unroofed.
Unless this warning signal is
upgraded during the entire existence
of the tropical cyclone, only very
light or no damage at all may be
sustained by the exposed
communities.
Rice crop, however, may suffer
significant damage when it is in its
flowering stage.
IMPACT OF THE WINDS




When the tropical cyclone is strong or
is intensifying and is moving closer,
this signal may be upgraded to the next
higher level.
The waves on coastal waters may
gradually develop and become bigger
and higher.
The people are advised to listen to the
latest severe weather bulletin issued
by PAGASA every six hours. In the
meantime, business may be carried out
as usual except when flood occur.
Disaster preparedness is activated to
alert status.
PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES
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2
PUBLIC
STORM
WARNING
SIGNAL
A tropical cyclone will
affect the locality with
wind speeds of 60-100
kph in at least 24 hours
METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS







Some coconut trees may be tilted
with few others broken.
Few big trees may be uprooted.
Many banana plants may be downed.
Rice and corn may be adversely
affected.
Large number of nipa and cogon
houses may be partially or totally
unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron roofings
may be peeled off.
In general, the winds may bring light
to moderate damage to the exposed
communities.
IMPACT OF THE WINDS






The sea and coastal waters are
dangerous to small seacrafts
Special attention should be given to the
latest position, the direction and speed
of movement and the intensity of the
storm as it may intensify and move
towards the locality.
The general public especially people
travelling by sea and air are cautioned
to avoid unnecessary risks.
Outdoor activities of children should
be postponed.
Secure properties before the signal is
upgraded.
Disaster preparedness agencies /
organizations are in action to alert
their communities.
PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES
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3
PUBLIC
STORM
WARNING
SIGNAL
A tropical cyclone will
affect the locality with
wind speeds of 100-185
kph in at least 18 hours
METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS






Many coconut trees may be broken
or destroyed.
Almost all banana plants may be
downed and a large number of trees
may be uprooted.
Rice and corn crops may suffer
heavy losses.
Majority of all nipa and cogon houses
may be unroofed or destroyed and
there may be considerable damage
to structures of light to medium
construction.
There may be widespread disruption
of electrical power and
communication services.
In general, moderate to heavy
damage may be experienced,
particularly in the agricultural and
industrial sectors.
IMPACT OF THE WINDS









The disturbance is dangerous to the
communities threatened/affected.
The sea and coastal waters will be very
dangerous to all seacrafts.
Travel is very risky especially by sea
and air.
People are advised to seek shelter in
strong buildings, evacuate low-lying
areas and to stay away from the coasts
and river banks.
Watch out for the passage of the "eye"
of the typhoon indicated by a sudden
occurrence of fair weather
immediately after very bad weather
with very strong winds coming
generally from the north.
When the "eye" of the typhoon hit the
community do not venture away from
the safe shelter because after one to
two hours the worst weather will
resume with the very strong winds
coming from the south.
Classes in all levels should be
suspended and children should stay in
the safety of strong buildings.
Disaster preparedness and response
agencies/organizations are in action
with appropriate response to actual
emergency.
PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES
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4
PUBLIC
STORM
WARNING
SIGNAL
A tropical cyclone will
affect the locality with
wind speeds of more
than 185 kph in at least
24 hours
METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS






Coconut plantation may suffer
extensive damage.
Many large trees may be uprooted.
Rice and corn plantation may suffer
severe losses.
Most residential and institutional
buildings of mixed construction may
be severely damaged.
Electrical power distribution and
communication services may be
severely disrupted.
In the overall, damage to affected
communities can be very heavy.
IMPACT OF THE WINDS





The situation is potentially very
destructive to the community.
All travels and outdoor activities
should be cancelled.
Evacuation to safer shelters should
have been completed since it may be
too late under this situation.
With PSWS #4, the locality is very
likely to be hit directly by the eye of the
typhoon. As the eye of the typhoon
approaches, the weather will
continuously worsen with the winds
increasing to its strongest coming
generally from the north. Then a
sudden improvement of the weather
with light winds (a lull) will be
experienced. This means that the eye
of the typhoon is over the locality. This
improved weather may last for one to
two hours depending on the diameter
of the eye and the speed of movement.
As the eye moves out of the locality, the
worst weather experienced before the
lull will suddenly commence. This time
the very strong winds will come
generally from the south.
The disaster coordinating councils
concerned and other disaster response
organizations are now fully responding
to emergencies and in full readiness to
immediately respond to possible
calamity
PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES
6. Rainfall and Rate of Rainfall
The amount of rainfall and the rate of rainfall are measured in terms of
how much rain is collected by a rain gauge. The units of measurement are either
in mm (millimeter) or in (inches) of rainfall. One type of rain gauge that
measures rain is called the tipping bucket. This rain gauge is actually composed
of two “buckets” placed side by side. When one of the buckets is filled, it tips, and
the other bucket starts to collect the rain. When it fills, it tips, and the previous
bucket then starts to collect the rain. The amount of rain and the rate of rainfall
are obtained by counting how many times the bucket tips over a certain period
of time. A schematic of the tipping bucket is shown below.
Figure 9. (Left) An actual tipping bucket on a rain gauge. (Middle) Schematic of the parts of the
rain gauge. (Right) Description of how the tipping bucket works.
C. What are the factors that contribute to weather and climate?
1. The shape of our planet
We know that the heat coming from the Sun affects us more on the
equator than in the North poles. This is because of the spherical shape of our
planet. The heat coming from the sun affects the people in the equator more than
the animals in the North and South poles. If you think about it, we feel the cool
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shade of trees when we are beneath its leaves. And if we step out of its shade, we
can immediately feel the effect of the scorching sun. Imagine the temperature
difference then between the equator and the North pole (or South pole). It is no
wonder that ice readily forms in the geographic poles, since the temperature
there can easily be much, much lower than the temperature at the equator – even
below 0°C! This effect becomes more pronounced if we take into account the fact
that the shape of the Earth is not precisely spherical. It is, in fact, oblate spheroid
– the equator is more pointed in compared to the North and South poles.
2. Tilting of the Earth’s axis
A more realistic picture would appear if we include the tilting of the
Earth’s axis. The Earth’s axis is tilted by about 23.5°. This means that during the
months of April and May, when the axis is tilted towards the sun (see figure
below), the Philippines should feel the heat of the sun more, since it is located
above the equator. During the months of December and January, when the axis is
tilted away from the sun, the Philippines should feel the heat of the sun less.
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Figure 11. The movement of the Earth around the Sun also contributes to the variations in
temperature on the surface of the Earth.
3. Earth’s rotation around the Sun
Our climate in a particular location is associated with the movement of
the earth around the sun and its position relative to the equator (or geographic
poles). The effect of the movement of the Earth around the Sun results to this
temperature difference.
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Figure 12. Temperature variation on the surface of the Earth with respect to a year’s time.
A more accurate picture would also appear if we take into account that
the path of the orbit of the Earth around the sun is actually oval-shaped and not
circular. This means that
This temperature variation becomes more pronounced if we include the
fact that the shape of the orbit of the Earth around the sun is elliptical. Our planet
is farthest from the sun during the month of December, while it is closest to the
sun during the month of May. During December, the Earth is tilted away from the
sun and the temperature in the Philippines becomes relatively colder. On the
other hand, during June, the Earth is tilted towards the sun and the temperature
in the Philippines becomes relatively warmer.
4. Rotation of the Earth about its own axis
The rotation of our planet about its own axis causes the air above and
below the equator to move in certain directions. Winds above the equator rotate
clockwise, while winds below the equator rotate counterclockwise. This wind
movement as a result of the earth’s rotation is called the Coriolis effect.
5. Land mass
The Coriolis effect describes the wind movement as a result of the Earth’s
rotation about its own axis. However, the presence of land disturbs this rotation
and causes the wind to lose energy and speed and to change direction. This
further causes wind movement that becomes chaotic and impossible to predict
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with high accuracy. Thus, most predictions of the movement of storms is
localized and short-term.
Figure 13. Combined effect on wind movement of the Coriolis effect and land
mass.
6. Human Factors or Anthropogenic
Anthropogenic effects are man-made effects due to the increasing
demand for energy and power. The by-products of these effects contribute to
increased amounts of greenhouse gases that trap more heat within the Earth’s
lower atmosphere. This is called the greenhouse effect. The figure below shows
the various anthropogenic sources that significantly contribute to the
greenhouse effect.
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Figure 14. (Left) Greenhouse gases that are present in our atmosphere. (Right) Various sources
of greenhouse gases and the extent of its contribution to the greenhouse effect.
VI. Further Reading & References
http://www.severe-weather-fan.com/types-of-thunderstorms.html
http://http://www.davisnet.com
http://kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/genmet/psws.html
http://www.gov.ph/images/uploads/rainfall-english.jpg
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Module 1C: Climate Change and Disasters
Prepared by:
Dymphna N. Javier
Department of Physical Sciences
University of the Philippines Baguio
I. Introduction
This module provides facts and information about the science of climate change, the
available data and information that support it; how climate change can affects us, and why we
must be concerned about it.
II. Learning objective
After the presentation of the module, participants are expected to understand further
the cause and effects of climate change, the climate scenario for the Philippines, and the links
between climate change and disasters.
III. Methodology: Lecture
IV. Materials needed: DLP, Laser pointer, laptop
V. Time required: 45 minutes
VI. Content
A. The Climate system
Climate pertains to the state of the atmosphere over a long period of time. Its elements
include temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed, type of clouds, type and amount of
precipitation, among others. It is a complex, interactive system involving the atmosphere, land
surface, snow and ice, bodies of water, and living things (IPCC, 2007).
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Fig. 1. The Climate system (IPCC, 2007)
B. Climate change
The IPCC (2007) defines climate change as any change in climate over time, whether due
to natural variability or as a result of human activity. The United Nations Framework
Convention for Climate Change, on the other hand, defines it as a change of climate which is
attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global
atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable
time periods (UNFCCC, 20xx).
There are natural causes of climate change: changes in Earth’s motions, changes in solar
output, changes in atmospheric composition (trace gas, dust etc.), changes in ocean circulation,
changes in landmass distribution.
Scientific studies indicate that the current ongoing change in climate is due to human
activities. These include burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, agriculture and fertilizer use, and
many others.
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Fig. 2. The unprecedented rise in greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane
(IPCC, 2007)
Three major evidences of climate change are: increasing global average air and ocean
temperatures, rising global means sea level, widespread melting of snow and ice (IPCC, 2007).
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Fig. 3. Evidences of climate change (IPCC, 2007)
For the Philippines, PAGASA (2011) has documented that temperature for the period
1951-2010 has increased by 0.648oC during the period, a 0.0108oC increase per year
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Fig. 4. Temperature variation for the period 1951-2010 (PAGASA)
C. Climate scenario for the Philippines and CAR
PAGASA (2011) predicts that :
•
Mean temperature rise will range between 0.9 oC to 1.1oC by the year 2020 and 1.8-2.2oC
by 2050.
•
The number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 35oC will increase in 2020
and 2050.
•
The dry season months from March to May are expected to become drier and the wet
season months from June to November are projected to become wetter (PAGASA, 2010).
•
There will be 0.9-63% increase in rainfall for Luzon provinces. The highest increase in
rainfall during SW monsoon likely in Region I (44%) and CAR (29%).
•
There is also projected increase in the frequency and/or magnitude of extreme events of
tropical cyclones, heavy rainfall, drought and temperature fluctuations.
D. Impacts
There are a number of potentially damaging effects of the warming trend in climate:
•
With every 1oC rise in temperature, the water holding capacity of the
atmosphere increases by 7% (IPCC, 2007). A warmer atmosphere can hold more
water vapor which can generate more frequent and severe storms. The
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frequency of storm surge, flood, rainfall-induced landslides, and lahars will
therefore likely increase. Warmer climate can increase risks of both drought and
floods at different times and places. The extreme weather events that have
occurred in recent time have spawned the 2001 floods in City Camp Lagoon, the
2004 REINA (Real, Infanta, Gen. Nakar in Quezon province) floods, the 2006
Albay lahars, the 2009 Typhoon Pepeng landslides, and the 2010 storm surges.
This could also lead to accelerated erosion which can lead to forest loss.
Fig. 5. Landslide in Cresencia village, Baguio City (D. Javier)
The average number of tropical cylones that form in the Philippine area of responsibility
in September and October normally number less than three. But in 2009, there were four in
each of these months.
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Fig. 6. Four storms formed in the Philippine area of responsibility in September
and then again in October, 2009 (PAGASA)
•
A one degree rise in temperature can decrease crop yield by 10% (Villarin and Narisma,
2010). A warmer climate thus can potentially compromise food security. From 1970 to
1990, 82.4 percent of total Philippine rice losses were attributed to typhoons, floods,
and droughts (Lansigan et al., 2000 in Technical Primer on Climate Change in the
Philippines By the Manila Observatory for the Congressional Commission on Science &
Technology and Engineering (COMSTE) ).
•
Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could result in acidification of ocean waters
and harm corals.and other marine organisms. High amounts of this greenhouse gas can
result in stronger El Niño events which have been associated with reduced rice
production, fish kills, more deaths of giant clams, and severe red tide events.
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•
Coastal communities could experience more floods as global sea levels rise due to
warming and also due to melting of glaciers. A PAGASA-led study calculate that a 1meter rise in 2025 could inundate more than 5,000 hectares and displace more than 2
million people in metro Manila (Perez et al, 1999 in Manila Observatory, 2010). Land
subsidence due to groundwater extraction from wells could further worsen the threat of
floods. Losing coastal areas could have adverse effects on ecosystems, agriculture and
other resources.
Fig. 7. Effect of El Niño on palay production (De Guzman, 2010)
•
Data shows a strong positive correlation between dengue cases and rainfall. More
frequent and intense rainfall can also result in the rise of diseases such as diarrhea and
malaria.
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Fig. 8. Association between rainfall and dengue cases in the National Capital Region (Amadore,
2005)
E. Natural hazards and their cost
Located in the Circum-Pacific Ring of Fire and Earthquake belt, the Philippines also
needs to prepare against earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The Philippines is ranked 3rd
highest at risk to natural disasters (Beck et al., 2012).
The National Disaster Risk reduction and management council estimates that 0.5% of
the country’s GDP or PhP 20 billion is lost annually to disasters. In 2009, more than PhP 27
billion worth of damages was reported after Typhoon Pepeng alone. These resources have
competed with those allocated to provide more support for basic services, education, livelihood,
development infrastructure and others.
Facing the challenges posed by climate change and disaster risk reduction need to be
integrated in the road map to sustainable development.
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Fig. 9. Earthquake generators and volcanoes in the Philippines (Solidum, 2007)
F. What can be done?
•
Study the issue.
•
Share the information with others.
•
Forge partnerships.
•
Formulate science-based CCA and DRRM plans.
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VII. References
Amadore, Leoncio A., 2005. Crisis or Opportunity: Climate change impacts and the Philippines.
56p. http://www.scribd.com/doc/32498876/Climate-Change-Impacts-and-thePhilippines. Accessed 15 October 2012.
Beck, Michael W., Shepard, Christine C., Birkmann, J., Rhyner,J., Welle, T., Witting, M., Wolfertz,
J., Martens, J., Maurer, M., Mucke, P., Radtke, P., Radtke, K., 2012. WorlRiskReport 2012, 68p.
http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/WRR_2012_en_online150.pdf.
Accessed 15 October 2012
De Guzman, Rosalina G., 2010. Impacts of drought in the Philippines. Powerpoint presentation
in the International Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures: Preparedness and
Management for Sustainable Agriculture, Forestry
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change), 2007a: Summary for Policymakers. In:
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S.,
D. Qin, M. Manning,Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)].
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 151p.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change), 2007b: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis
Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and
Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp.
Manila Observatory, 2010. Technical Primer on Climate Change in the Philippines by the Manila
Observatory for the Congressional Commission on Science & Technology and Engineering –
COMSTE. Website? Accessed 11 July 2011
PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration),
2011.Climate Change in the Philippines, 85p. http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph. Accessed 2
May 2012
Solidum, Renato U., 2007. Geolologic hazards and disaster reduction efforts in the Philippines.
Powerpoint presentation in the Asa-pacific advanced network meetingJjanuary 22-26,
2007, Accessed 17 June 2013.
Villarin, Jose Ramon T. and Narisma, Gemma Teresa, T, 2011.Endangered Climate. In Stellar
origins, human ways: readings in Science, Technology and Society, pp.211-230. Ateneo de
Manila University Press.
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Module 1D: The Social Dimensions of Climate Change
Prepared by:
Raymundo D. Rovillos
Department of History and Philosophy
College of Social Sciences
University of the Philippines Baguio
I. Introduction
Welcome to this learning session on “The Social Dimensions of Climate Change.”
In the previous session, we have learned about the physical and biological
dimensions (causes and effects) of climate change. We have realized that climate
change is REAL-- it has adversely affected us and will continue to affect the whole
mother earth. In this session, we shall focus on the social dimensions of climate change.
This is in recognition of the fact that climate change is largely a result of our (human
beings’) interaction with the natural/physical environment. We cannot separate human
activities from nature since we are intricately related to it through our web of life.
Unfortunately, this social-environmental interaction and its impacts are not fully
acknowledged by many of us, humans, because we have been too pre-occupied with our
own survival, about our control/mastery over nature in the name of economic
progress/growth. Therefore, we need to seriously reflect on our roles in climate
change, as well as how we can contribute towards climate change mitigation and
adaptation.
II. Objectives
At the end of this learning session, participants should have:
1. identified the effects of climate change on your community, especially the people;
2. understood the concepts of vulnerability, social resilience, mitigation, etc.
3. understood the role (contributions) of human beings tothe phenomenon of
climate change;
4. learned how humans (particularly the participants) can contribute towards
mitigating and adapting to climate change.
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III. Methodology: lecture and workshop
IV. Materials and equipment needed:
Newspaper clippings on the typhoons Pepeng and Ondoy in 2010 (on Baguio
and Benguet)
Kraft paper
Masking tape
LCD and LCD projector
V. Duration: 3 hours
VI. Content
A. Activity: Who are most affected? (One hour)
Instructions:
1. Form groups of 5 to 8 individuals, preferably based on common places
(barangay, municipality or province);
2. Before you are newspaper clippings on the aftermath of typhoons Pepeng and
Ondoy in 2010, in order to help you recall some facts about the two disasters;
3. After reading all the news items, please answer the following questions and
discuss them as a group:
3.a. What areas were severely affected by the typhoons? Describe these areas.
3.b. Who are most affected by the typhoons? Characterize them according to
their socio-economic status, ethnicity, gender, etc.
3.c. How did the communities affected by the typhoons cope during and after the
disasters?
4. Assign a reporter for the group.
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B. Plenary Discussion: Presentation of results of group activity (30 minutes)
Towards the end of this plenary discussion:
1. Point out common experiences, but also identify distinct ones;
2. Connect/relate the experiences to the following key concepts:
Vulnerability
Resilience
Adaptation
Mitigation
These key concepts are elaborated in the lecture that follows.
C. Lecture: “The Social Dimensions of Climate Change” (One hour)
See attached power point presentation on this lecture.
The lecture shall highlight the following points:
1. Humans are disproportionately affected by climate change: that is, southern
nations are more severely affected than northern nations; the poor are more
vulnerable than the rich; and women are more likely to suffer more than
men, etc. Hence, climate change is very much a social justice concern/issue.
2. Climate change is also severely affecting fragile and degraded ecosystems and
those areas that are already hazardous geologically, even before the onset of
Climate Change.
3. Climate change is largely caused by human activities (anthropogenic), and by
development programs and projects that are high in carbon emission,
destructive of the environment in general and therefore unsustainable.
4. Humans can still mitigate and adapt to climate change by reducing carbon
emission: how? By adopting sustainable practices such as renewable energy,
sustainable agriculture, waste-segregation, reforestation, etc.
5. Much of what we can do to reverse the tide of climate change is about
CHANGING our behavior, values and ideas about what is “good life.”
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D. Open Forum (15-20 minutes)
E. Evaluation (let’s see how much you have learned)
1. Why is climate change a social justice concern?
2. Why is climate change going to expose the already vulnerable groups/sectors to
greater vulnerabilities?
3. Why are human activities greatly contributing to climate change?
4. What can you do to mitigate or adapt to climate change?
F. Synthesis (15 minutes)
Thank you for your active participation.
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