Download PPT - Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling Group

FOUR MAJOR RESEARCH CHALLENGES
FOR THE SECOND DECADE OF THE USGCRP
1. Quantify the contributions from major geopolitical source regions to the
global budgets of environmentally important gases and aerosols
(cross-cuts atmospheric composition questions 1, 2, 3, 5)
2. Quantify the role of intercontinental transport of pollution on regional
environmental degradation
(question 3)
3. Understand the effects of air pollutants (ozone, aerosols) on climate, the
related feedbacks, and the effects of climate change on air quality
(cross-cuts questions 1, 2, 3, 5)
4. Measure, understand, and predict long-term trends in the oxidizing power
of the atmosphere
(cross-cuts all questions)
Two general points:
• Satellite observations to revolutionize research over next decade
• Climate sensitivity issues critical but don’t neglect broader environmental
issues (overlaps, feedbacks e co-benefits, community inclusion)
Quantifying the contributions from major geopolitical
source regions to the global budgets of environmentally
important gases and aerosols
Need inverse models constrained by satellite and aircraft
observations, and by bottom-up understanding of processes
SATELLITES
continuous
monitoring
INFLOW
AIRCRAFT MISSIONS
covariances,
chemistry,
model errors
“Top-down”
constraints
3-D MODELS
inversion
OUTFLOW
“Bottom-up” source/sink inventories
Gap in draft document: recognize essential role to be played by
geostationary satellites, inverse methods, chemical data assimilation
Quantifying the role of intercontinental transport of pollution
in regional environmental degradation
Need global mapping (satellites), long-term observations, integrated approach
(ozone, aerosols, Hg, POPs…), new generation of models to resolve regionalglobal and ocean-atmosphere coupling
HEMISPHERIC/GLOBAL POLLUTION BACKGROUND
(Ozone, metals, POPs)
Free troposphere
PBL
“Direct”
intercontinental
transport (aerosols)
Continent 1
Continent 2
Oceanic transport
(metals, POPs)
Gap in draft document: broaden to metals and POPs (multimedia models)
Understanding the effects of air pollutants (ozone,
aerosols) on climate, the related feedbacks, and the
effects of climate change on air quality
Need better characterization of aerosol forcing, new generation of GCMs
including aerosols/chemistry/biosphere and global/regional coupling
Climatic effects
on air pollution
meteorology,
emissions,
chemistry
Could be large
(remember
summer of ’88!
Radiative
forcing
Precursor
emissions
Aerosols
Tropospheric ozone,
Gap in draft document: need observational diagnostics of radiaitive
and climatic response to aerosols and ozone, climate forecasts
relevant to air pollution meteorology
Measuring, understanding, and predicting long-term
trends in the oxidizing power of the atmosphere
Need better global OH proxies, better understanding of HOx/NOx/O3 chemistry
(partial derivatives), better understanding of related emissions
O2 + hn
Tropopause (8-18 km)
Stratospheric ozone
STE (poorly understood)
?
TROPOSPHERE
Complex non-linear chemistry
?
Nitrogen oxides?
(NO )
STRATOSPHERE
Lightning
x
CO, Hydrocarbons
hn
Ozone (O3)
hn, H2O
Hydroxyl (OH)
the main atmospheric
oxidant
Gap in draft document: oxidizing power of atmosphere is nowhere
specifically addressed