Download “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”

Common Misconceptions
by Climate Change Deniers
 This is a preview version of two different presentations we are in
the process of preparing
 1. A ‘Quick reference’ set of points for use in another
presentation when denier points come up. Hyperlinks will take
you to a set of quick answers to common points.
 2. A fuller discussion of the common misconceptions to be used
as a stand alone presentation or in conjunction with others.
 PLEASE SEE WEBSITE FOR UPDATED VERSION OF THIS PPT
 www.vicphysics.org/climateworkshop.html
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Common Misconceptions
by Climate Change Deniers
Hyperlinks will go direct
to appropriate page in
final version
1. It is getting cooler.
2. The Middle Ages were warmer.
3. Ice core data shows that CO2 rises before the
temperature does.
4. The extra CO2 is not from fossil fuels.
5. CO2 makes up a very small proportion of the
atmosphere.
6. Water vapour is a more important greenhouse gas
than carbon dioxide.
7. The warming is caused by natural and solar cycles
8. The climate is always changing.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Common Misconceptions
by Climate Change Deniers
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
Warming is good.
Technology will eventually solve the problem.
Tackling climate change is economically dangerous.
The increased CO2 from the developing world will
exceed any reduction the developed world can do.
Climate models are just computer models
Correlation not causation
Global warming is just a theory
Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
“It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
• The earth’s climate is influenced by many
factors. A time span of several decades is
needed to observe any trend.
• These claims rely on ‘cherry picking’ a
particularly hot year – 1998 the hottest year on
record.
• But choose 1996 or 1997 – Then EVERY year
since those has been hotter!
• The ten hottest years ever recorded were all in
the last 14 years.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
“It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
•
What the deniers do with data like this:
*
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
*2009 estimated
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
“It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
• ‘Other factors’
include the El
Niño – La Niña
cycle (ENSO)
• 1998 was an
exceptionally
strong El Niño.
• We seem to be
heading upward
again now.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
“It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
•
•
•
‘Other factors’ also include the Sun – red line & curve
We expect some cooling to 2008 as both ENSO (blue curve)
and Sun (red) are in a low phase.
Problem will be when they go high again in the next few years!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
“It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
•
A better indicator of ‘total Earth heat’ is the Ocean Heat
Content Anomaly. Most warming is accumulated in the oceans
and ice:
Global energy accumulation
and net heat emission
Nordell and Gervet
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
“It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
•
A better indicator of ‘total Earth heat’ is the Ocean Heat
Content Anomaly. Here is one estimate:
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
“It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
•
And another from the CSIRO:
•
Ocean heat content is going up relentlessly!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
•
•
A different approach is to measure the total energy coming in
from the Sun and the total being radiated out to space.
If they are equal the Earth’s temperature will remain constant,
but if not ...
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
“It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
•
By measuring reflected and emitted radiation, and comparing it
to incoming solar radiation “scientists have concluded that
more energy is being absorbed from the Sun than is emitted
back to space, throwing the Earth's energy "out of balance"
and warming the planet.” *
* National Aeronautics and
Space Administration
(NASA) (Washington, D.C.),
The Earth Institute at
Columbia University (New
York), and Lawrence
Berkeley National Laboratory
(California)
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
“It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”
•
Footnote:
•
“Some climate scientists are predicting that surface
temperatures will remain static or even fall slightly over the
next few years, before warming resumes. Their predictions are
based largely on the idea that changes in long-term fluctuation
in ocean surface temperatures known as the Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
will bring cooler sea surface temperatures.”
•
•
Michael Le Page New Scientist 15 August 2008
So the deniers may be around for a little while yet!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Common Pre(Mis)conceptions by Climate
Change Deniers
2. “The Middle Ages were warmer”
•
•
•
•
Any evidence is anecdotal, and restricted to
specific regions.
Even if they were a little warmer that is
irrelevant as the reasons for the current warmth
are quite different.
The rate at which the temperature is currently
rising is much greater than has been seen in any
historical time.
The temperatures we are heading for are much
hotter than any experienced in history.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
“The Middle Ages were warmer.”
Medieval warm period may have been about the same as recent averages
The Rate of increase certainly was not.
Where we are heading is very much higher.
2,000
years
Different colours
are different
determinations
Black line is
thermometer
records
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
“The Middle Ages were warmer.”
20,000
years
Period of human history
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Common Misconceptions
by Climate Change Deniers
3. Ice core data shows that CO2 rises before
the temperature does.
There are many factors that can either trigger an
ice age or bring the earth out of an ice age.
A rise in the temperature will release CO2 from
the oceans, CO2 has a positive feedback effect, i.e.
it increases the temperature further, and so on ….
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Common Misconceptions
by Climate Change Deniers
4. “The extra CO2 is not from fossil fuels”
Yes, it is.
Carbon has two isotopes: Carbon 12 and Carbon 13
(one extra neutron in the nucleus).
Fossil fuels have less of the Carbon 13 isotope.
The proportion of Carbon 13 in the atmosphere is
decreasing.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
“The proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere is too
small to matter.”
Composition of Air (by volume)
Oxygen
20.95%
Nitrogen
78.09%
Argon
0.933%
Carbon Dioxide
0.04% (used to be 0.03%)
Water vapour
0 ~ 3%
 The amount of CO2 is small but crucial!
 The 99.9% (O2 N2 & A) have no greenhouse
effect and so are irrelevant.
 A simple analogy...
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
“The proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere is too
small to matter.”
 Some have said that the amount of human
produced CO2 is only a very small portion of the
increase.
 That is total rubbish!
 Isotopic analysis of the C in the CO2 shows that
it has come from fossil fuels – which have a
lower proportion of C14 because they have been
decaying underground for millions of years.
 (C14 is a radioactive form of carbon created in the atmosphere by
solar radiation.)
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
“Water vapour is a more important greenhouse gas
than carbon dioxide.”
 True!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
“The climate is always changing.”
 Yes! On the large scale it swings between
‘hothouse Earth’ and ‘snowball Earth’ ± 10°C
 On the historical scale the changes have been
very minor – Medieval warm period, Little ice
age for example. ± 1°C
 Past changes have caused ‘mass extinctions’
 We don’t want to cause the next one!
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
“Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions”
 After assessing 687 individuals named as “dissenting scientists”
in the January 2009 version of the United States Senate Minority
Report (James Inhofe) the Center for Inquiry’s Credibility Project
found that:
• Slightly fewer than 10% could be identified as climate
scientists.
• Approximately 15% published in the recognizable refereed
literature on subjects related to climate science.
• Approximately 80% clearly had no refereed publication record
on climate science at all.
• Approximately 4% appeared to favor the current IPCC-2007
consensus and should not have been on the list.
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
“Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions”
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
“Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions”
 Some of the “scientists” included in that report:
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Ian Plimer
David Evans
Bill Kininmonth
Bob Carter
Lance Endersbee
David Archibald
Des Moore (IPE)
Bob Foster
Ray Evans
Don Aitkin
Robert Foster (Lavoisier Group)
Garth Paltridge
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee
“Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions”
 Many of these are:
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Not climate scientists
Geologists
Retired
Economists
Social scientists
Have interests in mining companies
Associated or members of the IPA
Australian Institute of Physics (Vic Branch) Education Committee