Download PNWCIG2011

PNW climate science conference, 13-14 Sept. 2011
Do you need data analyzed, gathered, generated (via models?)
Seeking research projects for strong undergraduate students
- no funding required
- will supervise locally
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Lisa graumlich - Stressors on steroids - Climate change, land use, ...
2 yrs of research on CC - surprised by effects of 1 C Rise in T
** Scientific community can offer critical perspectives for adaptation **
Humor: Destroy a greenhouse today - for every complex problem, there is an answer
that is clear, simple, and wrong - HL Mencken
Bud bursts in cloned lilacs are a weather / climate diagnostic for wheat planting.
Blooms happening weeks earlier, in the last 25 years, because spring T warmer.
5 days earlier / 1 C.
Toby Ault found spring earlier 4 days per decade in much of W US, varies with ENSO
Correlations between fires, lilacs, wheat, heat waves, ...
Snowshoe hare changes color based on daylight length. Maladaptive when snow melts
earlier.
Water usually dipole - wet in NW, dry in SW, or vice versa
Except - Drought everywhere 1600s and since 1980 (except coast)
Due to warmer spring temps -> severe fires
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David Hayes, Dept. Of Interior, canned talk with funky music, we're so excited that
you're doing this, our administration is supportive, Sec Salazar wants to better
understand how CC is affecting our resources - wildlife, water, land, fire, searise,
invasive species... he signed executive order for regional science centers working with
landscape cooperative system - managers use science info, work with state and tribal
partners, figure out how to adapts. feds provide the forum, but don't tell folks what to
do, get all the players in the ecosystem together to share strategies.
LCC
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Mary mahaffy - national climate patrnerships in PNW
Http:/ www.lincolninst.edu/pubs/1808_Large-Landscape-Conservstion
philip Mote - Climate Impacts Research Consortium - CIRC
RISA - NOAA regional integrated science and assessment projects
Sean finn great northern LCC - landscape conservation cooperative
PNW, northern rockies (wy, not co), including canadian rockies, not incl. "sage steppe"
of S. ID and ORE
Over 1 million km2, 5 states, 2 provinces
Building strategic framework to conserve and add value to large landscapes in face of
CC
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CESU - cooperative ecosystem studies iunit - national entworsk to provide reseach, ch.
Assistance, and education to fed agenccy resource mgrs
Univ - govt partnerships 28 unive innthis region, incuding CWU, NOAA..
Chris Lauver - greying - small moustache - fit
www.cesu.psu.edu
www.cfr.washington.edu/research.cesu/
Www.northcascadia.org
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Jan Newton, UW
Low pH water coastal upwelling n PNW - oyster emergency
Processes that lead to high co2 also lead to low pH
Hood canal - persistent hypoxia and lowest pH, aragonite saturation - bad
Aragonite = calcium carbonate CaCO3 - why is saturation bad?
How much of the corrosive conditions in Hood Canal results from ocean
acidification?
OA is responsible for 17 micromoles / kg co2 - thats about half of the effect due to
respiration, depending on season
Buoys www.nanoos.org water data available *********
Peaks in air co2 with T peaks
Drops in water co2 during periods of high productivity
Upwelling and respiration are both major contributors
Ocean acidification is affecting puget sound
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Kari difrancesco. Need flexibility in adaptive capacity of water management
Goals- Identify indicators of flexibility
Valley girl voice ... She only evaluated flood control - no other factors
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Heather Lintz, OSU - Current evidence for tree species' migration in the pacific coastal
US.
FIA - forest inventory of america data. PNW has 2d highest conifer diversity ( after
Mexico), highest standing timber volume
Different species have unique migration trajectories and rates
Crimmins et al 2011 science - more species moving downslope tracking precip changes
(not upslope tracking T changes)
Kelley and goulden 2008 PNAS - trees leaning upslope
Parmesan and Yohe 2003 - broad scale analyses show clear trend
Seedings under 1" diam, 5" length
Lumber species: 13 marching uopslope, 8 contractng, 4 moving downslope, 0
expanding
Conifers:
95% of species show significant differences between seedlings and mature trees - they
are moving - mostky upslope for shade tolerant species - hiest disturbance where they
are colonizing - ??
She compares short- term to long- term changes, and the efct is even more pronounces
Drought- tolerant species are moving into drier areas (e.g. Upslope)
Low drought tolerant trees moving ..
Compellingnevidence for tree migrstion happening now
Surprises
Must do species specific analyses
GREAT WORK
Q - how do you account for timber replanting?
A- thats mostly doug fir ... I don't have access to all those data
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Eric salathe' - regional climate model (12 km) results for climate impacts applications
Dark beard and moustache - Bothell - uh, um, oops, not showing slides, goal is not to
understand, I'm used to lecturing for 1.5 hrs (horrors) ..., don't bother with conclusions
(indeed)
Global CM 120 km grid
Hi res, intrxns between ocean, atmosphere, land, local details
Throwaway points:
PNW likely to get wetter in winter, drier in summer
Snow decreases 20-30-50% early-mid-late century
Bigger floods- snohomish- more widespread, frequent
Ozone gets better in PNW, worse most places
Algal blooms bigger, more often
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Lunch 12:30 - 1:30
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Day 1 - afternoon - concurrent session B - rm 110
Ann Radil, parametrix, Ecosystems-based approach to evaluating CC impacts,
adaptation, vulnerability
DOEcology SEPA july 2011 - GHG regs
Ex: Puyallup river Calistoga levee - 2006 flood - fled by Raninier glacis - melts
Cslculate GHG eissions assoc with levee changes
CUG research used to evaluate CC impacts
Timing and scale matter
Selling her services
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Lara Whitely Binder - assessing the vulnerability of 4W coast fisheries to CC
W coast waters highlly productive , over $400 million
Over 120 communities dependent on fishereis, many small communities
8 w coast stocks are officially overfished - rockfish also limit other fisheries, bycatch
Increasing T, OA, changing currents ... Could make situation worsr
May 2011 workshop - Test modified rapid vulnerability assessment methodology used
in Australia
Vulnerability of
Pacific whiting,
sablefish,
dungemness crab,
canary rockfish med-high
Too fast - she's emphasizing methodology, not content
Inform and engage cross- section of fisheries community on topics of CC, impact,
vulnerability assessment
Potential impact = exposure + sensitivity
Exposure: SST, OA, current changes, ...
Sensitivity: changes in plankton productivity; larval and adult growth, ...
PI + adaptive capacity -> vulnerability
Maybe should assess resiliency as well as vulnerability
Maybe should have changes, clarification in rating options
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Jennifer Marlowe - the power of Scenario planning for climate adaptation
ThreeDegreesWarmer.org climate justice at UW law school
Scenarios are stories of (uncertain) futures that make sense of the present - jay ogilvy,
creating better futures
Let's not back into the future, let's create it
Even the most unlikely events should be prepared for if the risk is high - peter schwartz?
Rand corp - father of scenarios - future thinking now
So much we don't know - scenarios simplify complexity
Help us simulate and rehearse possibilities
Ask not what do you think, but what are you going to do
Rehearse the future now
Create robust strategies
South africa - high road and low road - now has one of the most progressive
constitutions
Taking global average IPCC climate predictions for 2050 as a given, what laws and
policies can we design to improve the lives of climate vulnerable communities around
the world over e next 40 years?
Ex - change caribou hunting season to match when they are running
Food security
Water security
Assumed 2C rise by 2050
QUESTION - What are they top 2 uncertainties? Growth and inequalities are what they
came up with
Q2 - what are key driving factors
What are the least predictable?
Matrix of high and low growth ... Middle ages / star trek / common wealth / billionaires in
boiling broth ....
Write headlines for each scenario...
GREAT WORKSHOP
Not whether they predicted future right, but whether anyone changed their mind,
expanded their thinking,
Is it about team building or about planning action?
[email protected]
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Seshu Vaddey, USACE, Portland disctict - Making CC data easy to find and work
with
Http://eclime.blogspot.com
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2:50-3:20 break
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A Rm 120 special session - Climate, Coasts, Estuaries - what do we know about the
physical and biophysical processes, and what mighht the future hold? Strphsnie Moore,
NOAA NW fisheries
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DAY 2 - Jeremy Littell - MSU and UW - land use and forest management
Cue little guy with greying beard and moustache
What have we learned about developing climate info for vulnerability assessment,
impacts analysis, and adaptation planning?
How to work with planners so science leads to action?
Need iterative, interdisciplinary science- management partnerships
Like what scott morgan is doing
Roundhead managers and consumers can help blockhead scientists communicate and
tailor science to make it useful - not that black and white
Vulnerability assessment- how does your system work, what is sensitive to climste?
Resource, regulation, resilience,
...
Examples
Columbia basin scenarios project - 2860
-surveyyed stakeholders to define scope of project
- develoed msny scenarios - streamflow, reservior input
- modeled water avilabiliy, strem T, salmon impacts, customer needs, dams, snokw, ...
R Norheim - soil surface deficit maps for 2040
Ecoshare delivery system
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Northwest regional climate assessment
Look uo onkline National Climate Assessment
TC Richmond, atty, land use and environmental planning, AZ chief legal counsel for
water resources
Fred Lipschultz - regional coordinator - from NASA - oceanographer
Law requires reassessment every 4 years. Make it a sustained process, not just a
periodic product. National Draft by 2013 Nov for public review. Regional reports by
2012.
- synthesize relevant science
- increasing knowledge
- identify needs - preparing for climate variation, reducing impacts and vulnerability
- evaluate progress
...
Aim for consistent national matrix of indicators
International context
Federal advisory committee of 60 appt by Gary Locke
Fred- outline for 2013 report
Scientific basis for climate change
Sectors and sectoral cross cuts
Regions and biogeographical cross cuts
Mitigation and adaptation
Agenda for climate change science
NCA long- term process
8 sectors in each region
Water resources
Energy supply and use
...
Cross cutting topics
Water energy and land
Urban / infrastructure / vulnerability
Impacts on tribes ...
Land use ...
Rural, ag, ...
regions
PNW, SW,great plains, midwest, SE, NE, NE coast, HI, AK
Biogeographical
Oceans and marine
Coastal zones ...
Opportunities for participation
Produce technical inputs - need highest quality data
Participate in assessment activities
Link assessment activities to constituents
Q how will you include tribal knowledge?
A tribal reps at the table at all levels. Working to find a way to include non- peer
reviewed knowledge, despite strict requirements of Information Quality Act
Lots of overlap with IPCC, but we can't wait for their results to come out
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Unlocking water markets in yakima valley - sergey R - trying to get water from hay
farmers
Maximizing economics of water - tree fruits are worth more per acre than hay - does he
want to grow less hay?
Don't scare hay farmers by talking about taking their water rights.
Instead talk about a hypothetical farm, ask if irrigators would lease their water rights
temporarily.
This sounds sneaky.
Z- How much water per acre do orchards use compares to hay - not per dollar, per acre.
Z- Are there other values besides dollars per acres for hay? Support of local livestock
farming, for example. if hay is not grown locally, it will have to be imported, and that
could have a higher C cost.
Type of buyer approaching farmer will make a difference. Timing could matter.
Results - fsrmers dont want to elase to developers. Prefer a sqplit eason lease (i'll bet
many need to feed their pwn .ivestock)
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Linking models to predict CC effects - Yakima river basin - Maule
Steelhead and tribal economics
Project water in Gap nd Wapato Reaches
1-2 C increases: more water in winter, less in summer
Lower flow- project more fry in Gap, less fry in Wapato
Why? Does anyone understand? If they reverse water flows it seems to stay the
same?
Moraloy reprehensible nt to consider sslmon first in water needs - tribal First Food
Q- Do water flow changes have the same effects on all species?
A - no, coho and chinook respond differently (how?)
Bull trout not a concern, since they stay up high where it's likely to remain cooler
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Keyvan Malek - columbia river basin water supply - 2030 - ag and municipal demands
(no salmon considerations)
I will present my presentation...
Models- VIC hydrology, CropSyst for land
Coupled hydrology and crop growth models, met all irrigation requirements
VIC - weather, soil, water flux, crop typr
Irrigation water = crop water demand / irrigationefficiency
CropSyst- sow date, ?...
Modeled over 40 crops, including field crops and tree fruits, vegetsbles...
ColSom - reservoir model (Hamlet)
Inouts- future coimste scenario, water management scenario, economic scenario
Model VIC, acrops, reservoirs, constraints,
CC scenarios- HADCM, CCDM ... More, GCM ...
2 water scenarios, 2 econ scen
Resuts - supply and demand forecssts
Annual flows will increase 3%, Summer flows decrease 16%
Will have water, but not when we need it
Demands - will shift more to summer, especially for irrigation 12% increase in WA, 10% in CRB
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Day 2 special session - vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning for natural
resource mgmt in the PNW
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CC and forest biodiversity - a vulnerability assessment and Action plan for Natl Forests
in W Wa - warren Devine
3 Nat forests in W WA - how to conserve biodiversity and increase resilience, given
predicted CC?
Goal - 5 yr practical plan
Focus - forest tree species and
Rare, non- forested habitats vulnerable to CC
Selecting a vulnerability assessment method NatureServe CC vuln index
CC sensitivity dstabsse
Forest tree genetic risk assessment system, FORGRAS
FORGRAS- quantitatively rate and rank tree species bad on predicted CC vuln - data
into Excel
peer review resulted in removsl of hsbitat models, just kept respnses of esch species too bad!
Group 1 - common overstory - only onles analyzed
Group 2 - common understory
Grouop 3 - rare - whitebark pine, RM juniper, ponderosa pine, golden chinquapin
Mapped tree species occurrences,
compiled vulnerability data : habitat, reproduction, genetics, threats
5 risk factors- distribution, reproductive, adaptive genetic variation, habitat affinities (e.g.
Drought tolerance), insect and disease threats
Noble fir, grand fir, alaskan yellow cedar are vulnerable
More vulnerable - pacific silver fir, grand fir, subalpine fir, Engelman spruce, mountain
hemlock
Tools and management options
- gene conservation
- monitoring
- vegetation management - thinning, planting, assisted migration
Non- forested habitats
- alpine and subalpine
- native dry grasslands
- wetlands
1. Learn and track changes in plant communities as CC
2. Increase & maintain biodiversity, increase resilience
- plant more resistant trees
3. Prepare for future
- seed bank, inventory, seed orchards
Expanding efforts to OR and rest of WA, refining methods, combining results into final
report
[email protected]. GREAT WORK
Sites with old Doug Fir are unlikely to regenerate. Vulnerability to different factors
depend on age.
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How the WA wildlife habitat connectivity working group is planning for CC in thr PNW brad McRae, Nature Conservancy
Skinny, bald, thin moustachebeard, striped white W short sleeved shirt
Species moving 6 km poleward per decade, 6 m upward per decade
Species moving faster as climate warms faster.
Range shifts have been one of the most important adaptive responses in the past.
Land use impedes species movement
Wldlife habitat connectivity working group - trying to preserve pathways for species to
move
Species will need to cross climate gradients, e.g. Mountains
They will need to avoid developed areas
Assume that species of greatest concern are found in natural areas, and will avoid
areas of human impact
Assume present climate gradients will be conserved
Look for smooth dT paths, not over mountains or into hot valleys
Look for natural patches at least 10,000 acres
PRISM T data
Link patches that differ by at least 1 C, less than 50 km apart
Map of corridors connecting warming to cooler areas, at lowest cost to animals
Implementation & partnerships
- arid lands initiative www.waconnected.org
databasin.org
Linkage mapper
Linkage mapper climate
Nature conservancy historically buys pristine land for biodiversity conservation. Not
effective in the long term unless lands are connected.
Q now that species are shifting, how do you define invasive species?
A difficult question - we are now introducing non- native species, e.g. Butterflies into
prairies where no native species survive to provide services to plants
Q tribes need to be part of the planning, if you plan corridors thru tribal lands
Tribes cannot move, so we do not want species important to our culture to move out.
A - talking with Colville and Yakima tribes - they do not always have the resources to
come to meetings - would like to hear how to increase participation
Want to manage refugia where species might be able to remain
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N Cascadia adaptation partnership - preparing for CC through a science- management
colllsb - crystsl Raymond - research scientist
NCAP - CIG, PNW..., FS
Goal - Develop cadre of scientists and managers to work together ...
Rainier and N cascades NP, and baker - snoqualmie + okanagon - wenatchee NF
Education - vulnerability assessment - adaptation planning VAA - implementation
1. Ed of park and forest staff - one workshop per park or forest
2. Review CC projections and identify resource sensitivities
3. Develop science- based adapt. Strategies
4. Integrate with current park and forest plans
All national forests have to report on a climate response scorecard. Participating in this
program allows them to check many of the 10 required points.
Education- climate change skepticism is not a major barrier - they are not seeing the
skeptics. Staff time and resources is bigger barrier
VAA - fish, vegetation / disturbances, wildlife
Hydrology, roads, human access
2 day workshop for each of 4 VAA areas. Collaborative sessions, not just talking heads.
Create reports together.
www.northcascadia.org
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Framing adaptation at the state level - the OR CC adaptation framework - jeffrey Weber
Full head of grey hair, busy grey moustache, bobbly head, khaki jacket
I'm going to talk about about meetings ... What am i going to talk about? I'm goin to talk
about ... Blah blah
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Panel discussion
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Day 2 afternoon
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Francis zwiers - detection and attribution of changes in extremes - IPCC coordinating
lead author on AR4, uVIC
Changes in mean climate - GREAT EARLY SLIDES
IPCC - warming is unequivocal - air, ocean, melting snow and ice, rising sea level
GHG have increased steeply
T have increased recently
Attributions - solar small, volcanic significant cooling a few years at a time
Last half of 20th C should have cooled due to volcanoes, but it warmed due to GHG
Compare model and observations - model is smoother because it averages over space
Model is faster - canadian
Beta = amplitude diff between obs y and model X (1= perfect)
Epsilon =0 good fit
Y = beta X + epsilon
0,5 C increase between 1950 and 1999 - forcing graph
All models generally agree that GHG warming would have caused about 1C warming if
not for volcanoes and other natural cooling
Review of methodologies for assessing extreme events, statistically ...
Coldest day and coldest night of the year - these used to be 20 year events, and now
they are 40 year events, rarer
Warmest night of the year - these are more common - about a factor of two
Warmest day of the year - noisy
Cannot represent time and space extremes well yet
Online climate science course:
www.pics.uvic.ca /insights/index.php
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John abataz... Role of PN american pattern- PNAP - on the pace of future winter
warming across western North america
Scientists are grey blockhead
Climate variability can mask the pace of change
What drives e pace of winter warming in the west?
PNA - preferred atmospheric mode - hi over Canada, low over nw Pacific ocean -(
quadrupole, he calls it) - increases in freezing level - ridginess of large scale waves
Positive phase - warm air into the west
Commingles with ENSO and PDO
Why does it matter? Strong influence in air temp ...
PNW- spring is warming (0.28 C / decade) autumn is not (0.07 C / decade)
Loss of Mt snowpack. www.wrcc.dri.edu/cwd/products
PNAP responsible for removing about 1/3 of loss of snowpack on Cascades since 1958
Hw will climate variability alter the pace of future winter warming across W NA?
Most GCMs can simulate PNA variations within 20% of observations
He says most models show + PNA in winter. Data shows + PNA yearlong, just stronger
in winter
All models show less snow, whether PNA is strong or weak
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ENSO - stronger la nina in history - coldest spring - high precip, , above normal cloud
cover
While NW record cool, whole SE record warm - two sides of the same coin
Trigger for severe TX drought
April tornado season - another recordbreaker - any relation to ENSO?
GREAT SLIDES
Classic winter La Nina- Cool equator and PNW, HP in subtropics and S US
High precip in PNW nd midwest, NE, dry everywhere else
SPRINGTIME la nina composite- very similar to winter
Starts to decay in late spring, usu
Currently La Nina appears dead in equatorial zone - dissipated rapidly
Still hanging on a bit here
Forecasting a new La Nina this winter
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Decadal trends in extreme precipitation, winds, and snowpack
Cliff Mass, UW
When it rains it pours - report online
Floods, droughts linked to GW
Cliff the weatherman doesn't belief that extreme weather events are linked to GW
He relies on downscaling of GCM models. Grad student poster yesterday did
exhaustive survey of RCM and showed that they are not yet consistent.
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Precipitation extremes in W US urban areas - how reliable are the regional climate
model projections, vimal mishra
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Estimates of changing flood risk in the 21st C PNW based on regional scale Climate
model sims, alan hamlet
Increased flood risks for virtually all projections
RCM reproduction of Nov 2006 storm -good
Simulation to 2050 for chehalis river flooding - dominated by rain, not snow - floods
moving earlier each fall, getting stronger
Sauk river in Skagit basin - influenced by snowpack as well - increase in flood
intensity, mostly because its warmer
Columbia r at dalles - shifting much earlier, if not much higher - may need to shift
reservoir management
More extreme storms in early fall due to atmospheric rivers
General increases in flood intensity will accompany GCC innPNW
Many sites show earlier flooding due to snowpack changes and earlier storms
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IPCC AR5 and implications for regional decision making
Trevor murdock, U Vic
Due in 2013-14
ATIWUFTTT acronyms that i will use freely throughout this talk
CMIP coupled model intercomparison project - at NCAR, japan, UK, UVic, ... Not part of
IPCC, happen between IPCCs
SRES special report on emissions scenarios B1,A1B, a2
GCM, RCM, ESM earth system model
RCP emission scenarios 2.6, 4.5,6,8.5
CMIP5 - more regional info, more extremes, from improved GCMs
Nice slides showing differences between AR models
Improved GCMs, time resolution, RCM (compared by CORDEX)
Decadal predictions (not projections)
SREX special report on extremes due in a few months ********************
Latest issue of Climate Change (special issue) available online only ********************
RCP - representative concentration pathways # W/ m2 forcing at 2100
2.6 peaks earlier, declines to 2.6 at 2100, CO2 to 490 ppm - aggressive, but still above
critical
4.5,6 stabilize at 2100, CO2 to 650, 850 ppm
8.5 at 2100 stabilizes later, CO2 to 1370ppm, close to A2
Attempt to span population, GHG, cropland, GDP, ...
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CONTACTS
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Chris Lauver - CESU program - UW program on climate change, school of forest
resources
[email protected] 206-685-7404
www.cfr.washington.edu/research.cesu/
Set up collab with agency such as NOAA - Tom B at SWPC
- get funding for a couple f students
- see guidelines online
- talk with Steve Verhey, new in M2O from CWU
After getting a foot in the CESU door, then can collab with UW folks
Jeremy Littell tslking for Judy Cushing at Evergreen in December
- find date from Judy
- schedule big room so ES&CC can attend
jeremy recommends Julie Parrish, program on the environment
Chad Kruger, CSA NRC - AG expert - dry farming, soil moisture
jeremy's papers on forestry and soil moisture deficit projections
karen Myers in Lacey may have projects for students - US Fish and wildlife services
Office on St Martins campus, but they don't collab with students
[email protected]. 360-753-9098
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