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AAAS/Carnegie PCAST Climate Change Report Anniversary, DC 2015 The Global Imprint of Warming on Life Camille Parmesan Professor, Marine Institute, Plymouth University, England Geological Sciences, University of Texas at Austin High Consistency among Global Meta-analyses of Recent Changes in Biological Systems Study N: species + functional groupings % Changing: distribution/ phenology % changes consistent with Climate Change Parmesan & Yohe Nature 2003 1598 59 % 84 % Root et al. Nature 2003 1468 40 % 82.3 % Root et al. PNAS 2005 145 - 92 % Rosenzweig et al Nature 2008 55 studies - 90 % Poloczanska et al. Nature Climate Change 2013 857 76 % 83 % Trends in Land and Ocean Temperatures – past 50 years Temperature change 1960-2009 (°C/decade) Burrows et al.Science 2011 Velocity of Temperature Shifts in Space km/decade geographic shifts of isotherms slow moderate fast Rate of change in locations of temperature isotherms in past 50 years 1960-2009 (km/decade) Burrows et al. Science 2011 Species Shifting into Historically Cooler L a n d s a n d Wa t e r s Te r r e s t r i a l : m e a n s h i f t = 4 & 11 m i / d e c a d e (2 meta-analyses) Purple emperor Butterflies > 124 miles in 5 yrs Marine: mean shift = 47 mi/decade (1 meta-analysis) bony fish: >124 mi/dec diatom ~250 mi/dec Poloczanska et al Nature Climate Change 2013; Chen et al. Science 2011; Parmesan Ann Rev Ecol Evol Syst 2006; Parmesan & Yohe Nature 2003; Parmesan et al. Nature 1999 Atlantic cod Velocity of Recent Temperature Isotherms Shifts (VoCC) Correctly Predicts Observed Range Shifts: • Use to predict sources, corridors, barriers & sinks Burrows et al. Nature 2014 Stable “Refugia” Movement Into “Species Gains” Net Outflow “Species Loss” Inflow & Termination “Sinks” Mild Sink Non-moving Corridors Strong Sources Strong Sink Slow moving Convergence Mild Sources Sink & Barrier Northward expansion of A iris: * Baltic was barrier (lag of 10-20 years) * Rapid expansion after arrival in FN & SW * B o t h c o r r e c t l y p r e d i c t e d b y Vo C C 2 independent invasions Purple emperor (Apatura iris) P Schappert Parmesan et al. Nature, 1999; Henriksen & Kreutzer 1982; Ryrholm unpub.; Kaila & Kullberg pers. comm. Mountaintop species going extinct at lowest elevations white lemuroid possum , Australia pika, USA & Nepal apollo, Europe & Nepal S p r i n g a d v a n c i n g 3-4 d/d e c a d e Amphibians fastest: 8 days/decade S p r i n g a d v a n c i n g 3-4 d/d e c a d e Amphibians fastest: 8 days/decade Birds & butterflies (4) faster than herbs (1) S p r i n g a d v a n c i n g 3-4 d/d e c a d e Amphibians fastest: 8 days/decade Birds & butterflies (4) faster than herbs (1) Juvenile fish & zooplankton (12) faster than phytoplankton (6) & molluscs (0) • Nearly ¾ of plants in long-term UK dataset are driven only by spring temperatures • Wa r m e r s p r i n g s c a u s e a d v a n c e d f l o w e r i n g Observed changes in timing of first flowering Cook, Wolkovich & Parmesan PNAS 2012 • For species that require winter chilling: • Winter warming causes delay • Spring warming causes advancement • Observed changes are sum of two opposing drivers Cook, Wolkovich & Parmesan PNAS 2012 Signs Of Climate Change in DC red maple only respond to spring warming: flowering earlier creeping phlox Signs Of Climate Change in DC mock strawberry spring advance + winter delay = little change dandelion Precipitation can be stronger driver than temperature • California study – 64 plant species • censuses in 1930s and 2000s • 72 % of plants shifted downslope: o 269 ft. on average • Te m p e r a t u r e s i n c r e a s e d : o + 1.2°F (mean annual) • Rain & snow increased across northern half of CA • Downward expansions followed increased water availability Crimmins et al. Science 2011 California Change in total annual precipitation (mm): time periods 1920 - 1949 vs 1976 - 2005 150 0 -100 Mountain hemlock expanded 837 ft downhill in California Since 1930s temperature 5°F water deficit 5.3 in. Photo: Charles Webber, California Academy of Sciences Summary – responses of wild species to 0.7°C global increase since 1900 • ~ half of species have shifted their ranges poleward (50 - 1600 km) and/or upward (up to 400 m) • ~ two-thirds of species studied have shifted towards earlier spring breeding, migrating, blooming…. • Every major group studied has been affected • trees, herbs, butterflies, birds, mammals, amphibians, corals, invertebrates, fish, marine mammals & plankton • New research documents complex responses prior studies of proportion of species impacted by climate change are underestimates Parmesan AREES 2006; Parmesan et al. Nature CC 2013; Poloczanska et al. Nature CC 2013; Parmesan & Hanley Ann Botany in press All plants were equally sensitive to spring warming, but differing responses to winter warming drove differences in observed shifts in timing of flowering Cook, Wolkovich & Parmesan PNAS 2012