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1 Safe Climate Newsletter 18: Mailed November 2014 Hello Here’s the November safe climate newsletter. And also, I’ve reworked my safe climate web site, focusing more on the plans to reduce the impact of climate change, to present an attractive possible future, rather than presenting a turn-off, fearsome future. The site now presents: ** Key indicators of climate change with diagrams showing how the indicators have changed over past years. ** Some dangers of climate change emphasising how the current global warming could start a warming spiral in which warming repeatedly causes more warming. ** A possible solution to climate change, identifying detailed plans for moving Australia to a zero emissions economy, which could provide ideas for other economies. I’m still working on it and am interested in your comments. www.feedbackreigns.net Regards Andrew 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Contents Safe Climate Newsletter 18: mailed November 2014 ............................................ 1 Contents .................................................................................................................. 1 Brisbane G20 .......................................................................................................... 2 3.1 Agreement between China and US ................................................................. 2 3.2 Obama puts climate change on agenda ........................................................... 2 3.3 Coal industry lobbying at G20 ........................................................................ 2 3.4 Coal does not ease poverty .............................................................................. 4 General.................................................................................................................... 4 4.1 The hottest September in the 134 years of records ......................................... 4 4.2 Climate Change Video: Excellent ................................................................... 4 4.3 Flooding country by country ........................................................................... 4 IPCC Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report Nov 2014.............................................. 4 5.1 Fossil fuels should be phased out by 2100 says IPCC .................................... 5 Technology ............................................................................................................. 6 6.1 Solar wins! Zombie-grid a dead man walking ................................................ 6 6.2 Hot water from a heat pump ............................................................................ 6 6.3 Hydrogen economy ......................................................................................... 7 6.4 One in six cars sold in Norway is an electric vehicle...................................... 7 Australian politics ................................................................................................... 7 7.1 Abbott “Coal is good for humanity” ............................................................... 7 7.2 Green Building Scheme review creates more uncertainty .............................. 7 7.3 Carbon Tax Repealed: Emissions soaring ....................................................... 8 7.4 Abbott cuts climate research ........................................................................... 8 7.5 Renewable Energy Target: 20% has never been the actual target .................. 8 7.6 Nations are now fiercely competing for low carbon development ................. 8 7.7 Australia losing ground as climate race gains pace......................................... 9 7.8 The cost of rehabilitating coal mines .............................................................. 9 7.9 What is Coalition’s Direct Action Policy: April 2014 .................................... 9 7.10 Direct Action Payments Hidden: Commercial in Confidence ...................... 10 7.11 Renewable Energy Plans for Australia.......................................................... 10 8 About this newsletter ............................................................................................ 10 8.1 How to get this monthly newsletter............................................................... 10 8.2 Unsubscribe from this newsletter .................................................................. 11 8.3 Privacy and Security...................................................................................... 11 8.4 Origin of the Newsletter ................................................................................ 11 8.5 Some of these newsletter are on the web ...................................................... 11 8.6 Compiler of the newsletter ............................................................................ 11 3 3.1 Brisbane G20 Agreement between China and US Some great news at last, as China and the US announce a secretly negotiated deal to reduce their carbon emissions. ... Just before we all relax ... Global emissions have been on a mathematically predictable exponential trajectory for at least 160 years. Cumulative CO2 emissions (broadly speaking that’s what determines the temperature change) continue to double every 39 years. Nothing that anyone has done to date has succeeded in making even the faintest detectable change in that. To be blunt, our species has so far not demonstrated any ability whatsoever to influence global emissions growth through deliberate action on clime change. Savings in one place have [been exceeded by increases] elsewhere. And if we stay on our age-old trajectory we will shoot through the likely threshold of two degrees in the mid-2040s. ... The US and China announcement is very encouraging start. http://theconversation.com/us-china-deal-shows-all-that-effort-to-tackle-climatechange-might-actually-be-worth-it-34163 3.2 Obama puts climate change on agenda Mr Obama was applauded every time he mentioned climate change in his speech at the University of Queensland. He warned that no region in the globe had more at stake than the Asia-Pacific and said climate change meant more bushfires, flooding, extreme storms and rising seas in Australia. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/g20-summit-barack-obamaputs-climate-change-at-fore-in-speech-at-university-of-queensland-2014111511ndmg.html 3.3 Coal industry lobbying at G20 The G20 Leaders Summit is on this weekend in Brisbane and world leaders are gathering to talk about issues ranging from development, employment, taxation, infrastructure, investment and trade – but not climate change. The coal industry is at the G20, working to secure greater subsidies and less regulation of their deadly product. Coal causes hundreds of thousands of premature deaths each year, largely from exposure to air pollution from coal fired power plants in developing nations. Leading climate and energy scientists from around the world say any further expansion of coal is incompatible with avoiding dangerous climate change. Coal must be quickly substituted for zero emission technologies, and the majority of fossil fuel reserves must stay in the ground. However the Prime Minister Tony Abbott declared “coal is good for humanity” and "coal is essential for the prosperity of the world”. The Queensland Premier Campbell Newman recently claimed those opposing Australia’s coal exports are “condemning people in China, but particularly in India, who live in poverty, condemning them to that poverty." He went on to say: “To take 1.3 billion people in India out of poverty is going to require significant energy, and coal particularly is what they’re after.” This might come as something of a surprise to the people of India, wrote Indian energy policy analyst Shankar Sharma in an open letter to the Queensland Premier last week: Mr Sharma wrote: “This statement [by Premier Newman], if reported correctly, indicates to me that you did not have the benefit of effective briefing by your officers. [It is] highly irrational to assume that everyone in 1.3 billion is poor, and it is surprising that it seems that you have not been briefed on the social and environmental aspects of burning large quantities of coal in a densely populated and resource constrained country like India.” The Indian Energy Minister Piyush Goyal has just told the World Economic Forum they will be investing US$100bn in renewable energy in the next five years. Coal isn’t the answer to energy access. Access to electricity for poor people in the developing world can be provided much more cheaply and cleanly with renewable energy, with none of the risks to health posed by fossil fuels, or the associated greenhouse gas emissions. The coal industry plan to expand, regardless of the damage they cause. Coal industry leaders know their days are numbered. That’s why they have engaged BursonMarsteller, the PR company which handled the PR for the 1984 Union Carbide gas leak in Bhopal, India and formerly made a living spruiking the benefits of tobacco. Now they’ve helped Peabody Energy and others set up the Advanced Energy for Life campaign, aimed at influencing world leaders to help them “fight energy poverty” and suggesting that without access to coal, the developed world will forever be consigned to poverty. In an extraordinary display of hubris, they even claim “coal is key to human health and welfare, along with a clean environment.” As they make plain in this video, their goal is to secure policy commitments from world leaders at the G20 that support the expansion of coal. Fiona Armstrong: Climate and Health Alliance www.caha.org.au 3.4 Coal does not ease poverty Prime Minister Tony Abbott described coal as "good for humanity", while Environment Minister Greg Hunt said the planned expansion of the Abbot Point coal port in Queensland with its links to giant coalmines planned for the Galilee Basin "is about providing electricity to up to 100 million people in India". The Australia Institute, though, said coalminers were doing little to alleviate energy poverty directly and were exaggerating the link between coal use and economic growth. ... Coal generation is an expensive way to go about [alleviating energy poverty] ... the cost of connecting communities more than three kilometres from the grid was about $US450 per megawatt-hour, often making alternatives more viable. Solar panels and small wind generators were less than $US300 per megawatt hour. http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/the-australia-institute-says-coalindustry-doing-almost-nothing-to-ease-energy-poverty-20141107-11i48p.html 4 4.1 General The hottest September in the 134 years of records Last month was the hottest September for globally averaged temperature over land and ocean surfaces since record-keeping began in 1880, the US government says. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-21/planet-marks-hottest-spetember-since1880/5828628 4.2 Climate Change Video: Excellent A simple video experiment to see the warming impact of carbon dioxide – and more. http://www.businessinsider.com.au/bill-nye-climate-change-greenhouse-gas-2014-11 4.3 Flooding country by country If global carbon emissions continue on current trends and sea levels are affected by climate change as expected, about 2.6 percent of the global population, about 177 million people, will be living in a place at risk of regular flooding by the end of the century http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/upshot/flooding-risk-from-climate-changecountry-by-country.html?rref=upshot&abt=0002&abg=1&smid=tw-nytimes 5 IPCC Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report Nov 2014 *** Fossil fuel phase out: In projected futures with low levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (450 ppm of CO2 equivalent by 2100 which is likely to limit warming in 2100 to 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels) ... emissions from the energy supply sector are projected to decline over the next decade and reduce by 90% or more below the 2010 levels between 2040 and 2070. In the majority of these projected futures, fossil fuel power generation is phased out almost entirely by 2100, unless it uses carbon capture and storage. (Rephrased: Summary Report for Policy Makers, p 19 of 40) *** Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems Warming of the climate system is unequivocal [clear], and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented.... The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen *** Atmosphere: Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850. The period from 1983 to 2012 was very likely the warmest 30 year period of the last 800 years in the Northern Hemisphere. *** Ocean: Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 with only about 1% stored in the atmosphere *** Ice: Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass. Glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide. Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover has continued to decrease in extent. *** Sea level: Over the period 1901–2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 m... . The rate of sea-level rise since the mid 19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia. http://www.ipcc.ch/ Report summary for policy makers http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_SPM.pdf 5.1 Fossil fuels should be phased out by 2100 says IPCC The unrestricted use of fossil fuels should be phased out by 2100 if the world is to avoid dangerous climate change, a UN-backed expert panel says. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says in a stark report that most of the world's electricity can, and must, be produced from low-carbon sources by 2050. If not, the world faces "severe, pervasive and irreversible" damage. “Science has spoken”, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said. “There is no ambiguity in their message. Leaders must act. Time is not on our side. There is a myth that climate action will cost heavily, but inaction will cost much more." The IPCC has tried to make it more palatable by saying that fossil fuel use can continue if the carbon emissions are captured and stored. But so far the world only has one commercially-operating plant of that type, in Canada, and progress developing the technology is far slower than many had hoped http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-29855884 6 6.1 Technology Solar wins! Zombie-grid a dead man walking Upgrade your appliances so you can go fully solar. You can fly past those “cooking with gas” as you sizzle with solar. Induction cook-top to replace their outdated gas cook-top. Let’s be clear; induction cook-tops are more effective, safer and more efficient. Cost $800 Sanden CO2 heat pump hot water unit. It’s quiet, achieves Coefficient of Performance (COP) of about 4.0 (400% efficient, yes that is possible) on an annual basis and 3.0 in the worst of winter which is what counts. Cost $3000 Two Daikin Ururu Sarara COP 6.0 humidity heaters (aka, reverse cycle air conditioners) for main living areas. They use 83% less energy than an electric heater and 86%-92% less energy than a gas heater (depending on the age and type installed). Cost $4000 And two to four – depending on the size of the house – regular $1000 efficient Daikin, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, etc, COP 5.0 reverse cycle air conditioners for the rest of the house. Cost $2000-$4000 Total: All electric house conversion $9800-$11800 http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/11/10/solar-energy/solar-winszombie-grid-dead-man-walking 6.2 Hot water from a heat pump One common example of a heat pump is a fridge. It works by moving heat from inside the fridge into your kitchen. The heat pump discussed below works by moving heat from the air outside your house into your hot water tank. A heat pup is made up of: Refrigerant. The heat pump contains a refrigerant, a liquid that boils at a low temperature like minus 26 degrees C. An Evaporator: Even on cold days, the air outside your house can heat the refrigerant to above this low boiling point, so some of the refrigerant evaporates producing a gas. A Compressor: This gas is removed from the evaporator and compressed. As the pressure builds, the gas gets hotter, just as your bicycle pump gets hot as you pump up your tyres. The gas is heated to 95 degrees C A Condenser: The hot, pressurised gas passes its heat to where you want it, to the water in your hot water tank. In doing this, the gas cools and condenses into a moderate temperature liquid. An Expansion Valve: The cooled gas moves from the high pressure condenser, through the expansion valve, returning to the low pressure evaporator - and the cycle repeats. http://earthworkercooperative.com.au/bolt-on-solar-heat-pump-no-tank/ A good diagram here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_pump 6.3 Hydrogen economy The term "hydrogen economy" refers to the vision of using hydrogen as a low-carbon energy source – replacing, for example, gasoline as a transport fuel or natural gas as a heating fuel. Hydrogen is attractive because whether it is burned to produce heat or reacted with air in a fuel cell to produce electricity, the only by-product is water. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/oct/11/hydrogen-economy-climatechange Cars can be convert hydrogen directly into electricity for power. Norway is planning 400 miles of hydrogen highway. A hydrogen car can become a mobile generator and be used to power a house. Watch this 10 minute video. http://youtu.be/4AXU2wqQe00 6.4 One in six cars sold in Norway is an electric vehicle Roughly one in six cars sold in Norway is an EV, a whopping 15% share. Norway has the most EVs per capita of any country ... They took away all the taxes on electric cars and we introduced the other incentives: You could park for free, charge for free, you can use the bus lanes and toll roads for free. And slowly in the beginning, but for the last few years, it has really taken off. Since sales began in 2011, Nissan LEAF has become the nation’s third best-selling car with over 15,000 on Norway’s roads. http://www.electric-vehiclenews.com/2014/10/electric-cars-no-longer-niche-innorway.html 7 7.1 Australian politics Abbott “Coal is good for humanity” Prime Minister Abbott said at the opening of a coal mine "It’s very important that we sustain our faith in coal. ... Coal is vital for the future energy needs of the world. Energy is critical if the world is to continue to grow and prosper. ... So let's have no demonization of coal. ... Coal is good for humanity. Coal is good for prosperity. Coal is an essential part of our economic future here in Australia." October 2014 http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/coal-good-for-humanity-saysabbott/story-fn3dxiwe-1227089105190 7.2 Green Building Scheme review creates more uncertainty The Commercial Building Disclosure (CBD) program is the latest federal environmental policy to be placed under review. The scheme encourages energy efficiency by requiring owners to detail whether their buildings are high or low energy users. It has strong support in both industry and politics. The review creates uncertainty about the future of a proven program which has been effective in improving energy efficiency. http://theconversation.com/green-building-scheme-review-adds-yet-more-policyuncertainty-32748 7.3 Carbon Tax Repealed: Emissions soaring Carbon-dioxide emissions from the country's electricity sector rose sharply in the 100 days after repeal of the Carbon Tax — and are projected to increase by record amounts over this fiscal year: www.vox.com/2014/11/6/7157713/australia-carbon-tax-repeal-emissions-rise 7.4 Abbott cuts climate research The Abbott government has already trimmed annual funding for the Australian Climate Change Science Programme – a joint CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology research effort – from $7.5 million to about $5 million, and will possibly shrink it further ... Combined with cuts to other environmental research, the government plans to save $21.7 million over four years from the changes. ... the scope outlined for [future research] appears to exclude areas such as observing carbon dioxide levels, ocean heat changes and acidification. http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-science-fundingdeadline-looms-20141103-11fz89.html 7.5 Renewable Energy Target: 20% has never been the actual target Why fixate on 20% renewables? It’s never been the actual target. One review of the RET recommended that targets to be expressed in gigawatt hours and not as a percentage of overall electricity demand, to give the markets more certainly. http://theconversation.com/why-fixate-on-20-renewables-its-never-been-the-actualtarget-34130 7.6 Nations are now fiercely competing for low carbon development Amanda McKenzie, CEO Climate Council writes: It's common sense to most of us that, as one of the sunniest and windiest countries in the world, Australia has unrivalled renewable energy potential. But our latest report finds that we’re losing out on opportunities and investment to countries like China and the US - who are surging ahead with renewable energy. In the past year alone investment in Australian renewables has dropped back 70%. Read our latest report to see more about how Australia’s efforts to tackle climate change measure up against the rest of the world. The good news story globally is that China consolidated its position as the world’s renewable energy powerhouse in the past year with 2.6 million people employed in renewable energy jobs and renewables providing nearly one fifth of China’s annual electricity generation. China installed more renewable energy capacity than fossil fuels in 2013. It also retired 77 gigawatts (GW) of coal power stations between 2006 and 2010 and aims to retire a further 20 GW by 2015. The US is also rapidly exploiting the global shift to renewable energy, coming second only to China for installed renewable energy. Read our latest report for more on the global response to climate change and how Australia measures up. What's clear is that the world is building towards a tipping point of action and nations are now fiercely competing for low carbon investment. The global energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is now underway. Whereas in the past China and the US may have been viewed as laggards, today they have stepped up to the plate and are providing substantial global leadership. Australia continues to lag behind the rest of the world on tackling climate change. There is much more to be done if we are to protect Australians from a changing climate. 7.7 Australia losing ground as climate race gains pace In 2013, for the first time, China installed more renewable energy capacity than fossil fuel or nuclear. In 2013, China invested US$56.3 billion (A$65.7 billion) in renewable energy – more than all of Europe combined – and now is home to 24% of the world’s renewable energy capacity. As befits the world’s biggest nation, China is now number one in installed renewable energy capacity, new installations, and investment. ... United States is second in the world for installed renewable energy, which provided 12.9% of its electricity in 2013. ... In Australia, since the carbon price repeal, National Electricity Market emissions were up 4 million tonnes on the equivalent period last financial year. This increase in emissions corresponds with a growth in the share of coal in electricity generation, up from 69.6% in July 2014 to 76.4% in October 2014, while output from hydro power has dropped. http://theconversation.com/australia-is-losing-ground-as-the-climate-policy-racegains-pace-33941 7.8 The cost of rehabilitating coal mines Mark Wakeham of Environment Victoria points out a sleeper issue – the huge bill for rehabilitating a plant and mine site. The state holds a $15-million bond from each of the Latrobe Valley generators, but this is a fraction of how much it would cost to clean up a coalmine. The inquiry into the fire in the Hazelwood coalmine last summer heard owners GDF Suez had budgeted $81 million for rehab. Wakeham believes the actual cost would be greater, and the clean-up would create hundreds of jobs that could last two decades. He says the state government could increase the mine rehabilitation bonds substantially and introduce gradually tightening emissions standards to force the dirtiest plants out – and make a potential buyer for Anglesea [coal fired power station] think twice. http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/victorian-stateelection-2014-will-coal-power-stations-be-forced-out-by-the-market-2014110811izbg.html 7.9 What is Coalition’s Direct Action Policy: April 2014 The Government has released a white paper that details how the centrepiece of the policy - the Emissions Reduction Fund - will operate. The Emissions Reduction Fund is budgeted to cost $2.55 billion over four years, starting on July 1, 2014. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-20/coalition-climate-change-direct-actionpolicy-explained/5067188 7.10 Direct Action Payments Hidden: Commercial in Confidence The first Emission Reduction Fund auction is expected to be held by April of 2015 however the government has indicated that it will not be possible to see who had received what money and on what promise as this would be "commercial-inconfidence". Instead, the government plans to publish what it has called "weighted averages." Government officials defended the lack of transparency on the grounds that if one company knew what another had proposed to reduce emissions by a set amount, that could then be undercut to secure the subsidy and achieve a commercial advantage. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/direct-action-on-pollutionreduction-will-work-abbott-government-20141031-11eyya.html 7.11 Renewable Energy Plans for Australia Several alternative energy solutions have been researched and presented to government. These include: The Beyond Zero Emissions: Stationery Energy plan http://bze.org.au/zero-carbon-australia/stationary-energy-plan The Australian Energy Market Operator: Report on 100% Renewable Electricity Scenarios. AEMO runs Australia’s National Energy Market. http://www.climatechange.gov.au/reducing-carbon/aemo-report-100-renewableelectricity-scenarios Greenpeace Energy Revolution Report http://www.greenpeace.org/australia/en/what-we-do/climate/Report-2010/ Greenpeace: Solutions: Green Jobs and Economy http://www.greenpeace.org/australia/en/what-we-do/climate/Report-2010/SolutionsGreen-Jobs-and-Economy/ All of these solutions show how Australia can harness its abundant free energy from the wind and sun to be a net energy exporter of pollution free energy. 8 8.1 About this newsletter How to get this monthly newsletter To have this newsletter emailed to you monthly, send me an email like: “Subscribe: Please send me your safe climate newsletter” 8.2 Unsubscribe from this newsletter To stop getting this newsletter, send me an email like: “Unsubscribe: Please stop sending me your safe climate newsletter” 8.3 Privacy and Security I am set up to keep your personal information secure. For example: I do not share your details with others, I pay for effective anti-virus software, and I store the newsletter distribution list apart from my email If you have questions about this, do contact me. 8.4 Origin of the Newsletter This newsletter was produced by Peter Gardner until he began campaigning, during the 2013 Federal election, as a “Climate Emergency Independent” for the seat of Gippsland in Victoria. He is currently standing for the seat of East Gippsland in the 2014 Victorian Elections. www.petergardner.info 8.5 Some of these newsletter are on the web Some of these newsletters are on the web as doc files: www.feedbackreigns.net About Section > Newsletter 8.6 Compiler of the newsletter Andrew Gunner compiled this newsletter Contact via: www.feedbackreigns.net