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Safe Climate Newsletter 18: Mailed November 2014
Hello
Here’s the November safe climate newsletter.
And also, I’ve reworked my safe climate web site, focusing more on the plans to
reduce the impact of climate change, to present an attractive possible future, rather
than presenting a turn-off, fearsome future. The site now presents:
** Key indicators of climate change with diagrams showing how the indicators have
changed over past years.
** Some dangers of climate change emphasising how the current global warming
could start a warming spiral in which warming repeatedly causes more warming.
** A possible solution to climate change, identifying detailed plans for moving
Australia to a zero emissions economy, which could provide ideas for other
economies.
I’m still working on it and am interested in your comments.
www.feedbackreigns.net
Regards Andrew
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Contents
Safe Climate Newsletter 18: mailed November 2014 ............................................ 1
Contents .................................................................................................................. 1
Brisbane G20 .......................................................................................................... 2
3.1
Agreement between China and US ................................................................. 2
3.2
Obama puts climate change on agenda ........................................................... 2
3.3
Coal industry lobbying at G20 ........................................................................ 2
3.4
Coal does not ease poverty .............................................................................. 4
General.................................................................................................................... 4
4.1
The hottest September in the 134 years of records ......................................... 4
4.2
Climate Change Video: Excellent ................................................................... 4
4.3
Flooding country by country ........................................................................... 4
IPCC Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report Nov 2014.............................................. 4
5.1
Fossil fuels should be phased out by 2100 says IPCC .................................... 5
Technology ............................................................................................................. 6
6.1
Solar wins! Zombie-grid a dead man walking ................................................ 6
6.2
Hot water from a heat pump ............................................................................ 6
6.3
Hydrogen economy ......................................................................................... 7
6.4
One in six cars sold in Norway is an electric vehicle...................................... 7
Australian politics ................................................................................................... 7
7.1
Abbott “Coal is good for humanity” ............................................................... 7
7.2
Green Building Scheme review creates more uncertainty .............................. 7
7.3
Carbon Tax Repealed: Emissions soaring ....................................................... 8
7.4
Abbott cuts climate research ........................................................................... 8
7.5
Renewable Energy Target: 20% has never been the actual target .................. 8
7.6
Nations are now fiercely competing for low carbon development ................. 8
7.7
Australia losing ground as climate race gains pace......................................... 9
7.8
The cost of rehabilitating coal mines .............................................................. 9
7.9
What is Coalition’s Direct Action Policy: April 2014 .................................... 9
7.10 Direct Action Payments Hidden: Commercial in Confidence ...................... 10
7.11 Renewable Energy Plans for Australia.......................................................... 10
8 About this newsletter ............................................................................................ 10
8.1
How to get this monthly newsletter............................................................... 10
8.2
Unsubscribe from this newsletter .................................................................. 11
8.3
Privacy and Security...................................................................................... 11
8.4
Origin of the Newsletter ................................................................................ 11
8.5
Some of these newsletter are on the web ...................................................... 11
8.6
Compiler of the newsletter ............................................................................ 11
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3.1
Brisbane G20
Agreement between China and US
Some great news at last, as China and the US announce a secretly negotiated deal to
reduce their carbon emissions. ... Just before we all relax ... Global emissions have
been on a mathematically predictable exponential trajectory for at least 160 years.
Cumulative CO2 emissions (broadly speaking that’s what determines the temperature
change) continue to double every 39 years. Nothing that anyone has done to date has
succeeded in making even the faintest detectable change in that. To be blunt, our
species has so far not demonstrated any ability whatsoever to influence global
emissions growth through deliberate action on clime change. Savings in one place
have [been exceeded by increases] elsewhere. And if we stay on our age-old trajectory
we will shoot through the likely threshold of two degrees in the mid-2040s. ... The US
and China announcement is very encouraging start.
http://theconversation.com/us-china-deal-shows-all-that-effort-to-tackle-climatechange-might-actually-be-worth-it-34163
3.2
Obama puts climate change on agenda
Mr Obama was applauded every time he mentioned climate change in his speech at
the University of Queensland. He warned that no region in the globe had more at
stake than the Asia-Pacific and said climate change meant more bushfires, flooding,
extreme storms and rising seas in Australia.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/g20-summit-barack-obamaputs-climate-change-at-fore-in-speech-at-university-of-queensland-2014111511ndmg.html
3.3
Coal industry lobbying at G20
The G20 Leaders Summit is on this weekend in Brisbane and world leaders are
gathering to talk about issues ranging from development, employment, taxation,
infrastructure, investment and trade – but not climate change.
The coal industry is at the G20, working to secure greater subsidies and less
regulation of their deadly product. Coal causes hundreds of thousands of premature
deaths each year, largely from exposure to air pollution from coal fired power plants
in developing nations.
Leading climate and energy scientists from around the world say any further
expansion of coal is incompatible with avoiding dangerous climate change. Coal must
be quickly substituted for zero emission technologies, and the majority of fossil fuel
reserves must stay in the ground.
However the Prime Minister Tony Abbott declared “coal is good for humanity” and
"coal is essential for the prosperity of the world”.
The Queensland Premier Campbell Newman recently claimed those opposing
Australia’s coal exports are “condemning people in China, but particularly in India,
who live in poverty, condemning them to that poverty."
He went on to say: “To take 1.3 billion people in India out of poverty is going to
require significant energy, and coal particularly is what they’re after.”
This might come as something of a surprise to the people of India, wrote Indian
energy policy analyst Shankar Sharma in an open letter to the Queensland Premier
last week:
Mr Sharma wrote: “This statement [by Premier Newman], if reported correctly,
indicates to me that you did not have the benefit of effective briefing by your officers.
[It is] highly irrational to assume that everyone in 1.3 billion is poor, and it is
surprising that it seems that you have not been briefed on the social and
environmental aspects of burning large quantities of coal in a densely populated and
resource constrained country like India.”
The Indian Energy Minister Piyush Goyal has just told the World Economic Forum
they will be investing US$100bn in renewable energy in the next five years.
Coal isn’t the answer to energy access. Access to electricity for poor people in the
developing world can be provided much more cheaply and cleanly with renewable
energy, with none of the risks to health posed by fossil fuels, or the associated
greenhouse gas emissions.
The coal industry plan to expand, regardless of the damage they cause. Coal industry
leaders know their days are numbered. That’s why they have engaged BursonMarsteller, the PR company which handled the PR for the 1984 Union Carbide gas
leak in Bhopal, India and formerly made a living spruiking the benefits of tobacco.
Now they’ve helped Peabody Energy and others set up the Advanced Energy for Life
campaign, aimed at influencing world leaders to help them “fight energy poverty” and
suggesting that without access to coal, the developed world will forever be consigned
to poverty. In an extraordinary display of hubris, they even claim “coal is key to
human health and welfare, along with a clean environment.”
As they make plain in this video, their goal is to secure policy commitments from
world leaders at the G20 that support the expansion of coal.
Fiona Armstrong: Climate and Health Alliance
www.caha.org.au
3.4
Coal does not ease poverty
Prime Minister Tony Abbott described coal as "good for humanity", while
Environment Minister Greg Hunt said the planned expansion of the Abbot Point coal
port in Queensland with its links to giant coalmines planned for the Galilee Basin "is
about providing electricity to up to 100 million people in India". The Australia
Institute, though, said coalminers were doing little to alleviate energy poverty directly
and were exaggerating the link between coal use and economic growth. ... Coal
generation is an expensive way to go about [alleviating energy poverty] ... the cost of
connecting communities more than three kilometres from the grid was about $US450
per megawatt-hour, often making alternatives more viable. Solar panels and small
wind generators were less than $US300 per megawatt hour.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/the-australia-institute-says-coalindustry-doing-almost-nothing-to-ease-energy-poverty-20141107-11i48p.html
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4.1
General
The hottest September in the 134 years of records
Last month was the hottest September for globally averaged temperature over land
and ocean surfaces since record-keeping began in 1880, the US government says.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-21/planet-marks-hottest-spetember-since1880/5828628
4.2
Climate Change Video: Excellent
A simple video experiment to see the warming impact of carbon dioxide – and more.
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/bill-nye-climate-change-greenhouse-gas-2014-11
4.3
Flooding country by country
If global carbon emissions continue on current trends and sea levels are affected by
climate change as expected, about 2.6 percent of the global population, about 177
million people, will be living in a place at risk of regular flooding by the end of the
century
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/upshot/flooding-risk-from-climate-changecountry-by-country.html?rref=upshot&abt=0002&abg=1&smid=tw-nytimes
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IPCC Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report Nov 2014
*** Fossil fuel phase out: In projected futures with low levels of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere (450 ppm of CO2 equivalent by 2100 which is likely to limit warming in
2100 to 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels) ... emissions from the energy supply
sector are projected to decline over the next decade and reduce by 90% or more below
the 2010 levels between 2040 and 2070. In the majority of these projected futures,
fossil fuel power generation is phased out almost entirely by 2100, unless it uses
carbon capture and storage.
(Rephrased: Summary Report for Policy Makers, p 19 of 40)
*** Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic
emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have
had widespread impacts on human and natural systems
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal [clear], and since the 1950s, many of
the observed changes are unprecedented.... The atmosphere and ocean have warmed,
the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen
*** Atmosphere: Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the
Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850. The period from 1983 to 2012
was very likely the warmest 30 year period of the last 800 years in the Northern
Hemisphere.
*** Ocean: Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate
system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and
2010 with only about 1% stored in the atmosphere
*** Ice: Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been
losing mass. Glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide. Northern
Hemisphere spring snow cover has continued to decrease in extent.
*** Sea level: Over the period 1901–2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 m... .
The rate of sea-level rise since the mid 19th century has been larger than the mean
rate during the previous two millennia.
http://www.ipcc.ch/
Report summary for policy makers
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_SPM.pdf
5.1
Fossil fuels should be phased out by 2100 says IPCC
The unrestricted use of fossil fuels should be phased out by 2100 if the world is to
avoid dangerous climate change, a UN-backed expert panel says. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says in a stark report that most of the
world's electricity can, and must, be produced from low-carbon sources by 2050. If
not, the world faces "severe, pervasive and irreversible" damage.
“Science has spoken”, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said. “There is no
ambiguity in their message. Leaders must act. Time is not on our side. There is a myth
that climate action will cost heavily, but inaction will cost much more."
The IPCC has tried to make it more palatable by saying that fossil fuel use can
continue if the carbon emissions are captured and stored. But so far the world only
has one commercially-operating plant of that type, in Canada, and progress
developing the technology is far slower than many had hoped
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-29855884
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6.1
Technology
Solar wins! Zombie-grid a dead man walking
Upgrade your appliances so you can go fully solar. You can fly past those “cooking
with gas” as you sizzle with solar.
Induction cook-top to replace their outdated gas cook-top. Let’s be clear; induction
cook-tops are more effective, safer and more efficient. Cost $800
Sanden CO2 heat pump hot water unit. It’s quiet, achieves Coefficient of Performance
(COP) of about 4.0 (400% efficient, yes that is possible) on an annual basis and 3.0 in
the worst of winter which is what counts. Cost $3000
Two Daikin Ururu Sarara COP 6.0 humidity heaters (aka, reverse cycle air
conditioners) for main living areas. They use 83% less energy than an electric heater
and 86%-92% less energy than a gas heater (depending on the age and type
installed). Cost $4000
And two to four – depending on the size of the house – regular $1000 efficient
Daikin, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, etc, COP 5.0 reverse cycle air conditioners for the rest
of the house. Cost $2000-$4000
Total: All electric house conversion $9800-$11800
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/11/10/solar-energy/solar-winszombie-grid-dead-man-walking
6.2
Hot water from a heat pump
One common example of a heat pump is a fridge. It works by moving heat from
inside the fridge into your kitchen. The heat pump discussed below works by moving
heat from the air outside your house into your hot water tank. A heat pup is made up
of:
 Refrigerant. The heat pump contains a refrigerant, a liquid that boils at a low
temperature like minus 26 degrees C.
 An Evaporator: Even on cold days, the air outside your house can heat the
refrigerant to above this low boiling point, so some of the refrigerant
evaporates producing a gas.
 A Compressor: This gas is removed from the evaporator and compressed. As
the pressure builds, the gas gets hotter, just as your bicycle pump gets hot as
you pump up your tyres. The gas is heated to 95 degrees C
 A Condenser: The hot, pressurised gas passes its heat to where you want it, to
the water in your hot water tank. In doing this, the gas cools and condenses
into a moderate temperature liquid.
 An Expansion Valve: The cooled gas moves from the high pressure
condenser, through the expansion valve, returning to the low pressure
evaporator - and the cycle repeats.
http://earthworkercooperative.com.au/bolt-on-solar-heat-pump-no-tank/
A good diagram here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_pump
6.3
Hydrogen economy
The term "hydrogen economy" refers to the vision of using hydrogen as a low-carbon
energy source – replacing, for example, gasoline as a transport fuel or natural gas as a
heating fuel. Hydrogen is attractive because whether it is burned to produce heat or
reacted with air in a fuel cell to produce electricity, the only by-product is water.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/oct/11/hydrogen-economy-climatechange
Cars can be convert hydrogen directly into electricity for power. Norway is planning
400 miles of hydrogen highway. A hydrogen car can become a mobile generator and
be used to power a house. Watch this 10 minute video.
http://youtu.be/4AXU2wqQe00
6.4
One in six cars sold in Norway is an electric vehicle
Roughly one in six cars sold in Norway is an EV, a whopping 15% share. Norway
has the most EVs per capita of any country ... They took away all the taxes on
electric cars and we introduced the other incentives: You could park for free, charge
for free, you can use the bus lanes and toll roads for free. And slowly in the
beginning, but for the last few years, it has really taken off. Since sales began in
2011, Nissan LEAF has become the nation’s third best-selling car with over 15,000
on Norway’s roads.
http://www.electric-vehiclenews.com/2014/10/electric-cars-no-longer-niche-innorway.html
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7.1
Australian politics
Abbott “Coal is good for humanity”
Prime Minister Abbott said at the opening of a coal mine
"It’s very important that we sustain our faith in coal. ... Coal is vital for the future
energy needs of the world. Energy is critical if the world is to continue to grow and
prosper. ... So let's have no demonization of coal. ... Coal is good for humanity. Coal
is good for prosperity. Coal is an essential part of our economic future here in
Australia." October 2014
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/coal-good-for-humanity-saysabbott/story-fn3dxiwe-1227089105190
7.2
Green Building Scheme review creates more uncertainty
The Commercial Building Disclosure (CBD) program is the latest federal
environmental policy to be placed under review. The scheme encourages energy
efficiency by requiring owners to detail whether their buildings are high or low
energy users. It has strong support in both industry and politics.
The review creates uncertainty about the future of a proven program which has been
effective in improving energy efficiency.
http://theconversation.com/green-building-scheme-review-adds-yet-more-policyuncertainty-32748
7.3
Carbon Tax Repealed: Emissions soaring
Carbon-dioxide emissions from the country's electricity sector rose sharply in the 100
days after repeal of the Carbon Tax — and are projected to increase by record
amounts over this fiscal year:
www.vox.com/2014/11/6/7157713/australia-carbon-tax-repeal-emissions-rise
7.4
Abbott cuts climate research
The Abbott government has already trimmed annual funding for the Australian
Climate Change Science Programme – a joint CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology
research effort – from $7.5 million to about $5 million, and will possibly shrink it
further ... Combined with cuts to other environmental research, the government plans
to save $21.7 million over four years from the changes. ... the scope outlined for
[future research] appears to exclude areas such as observing carbon dioxide levels,
ocean heat changes and acidification.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-science-fundingdeadline-looms-20141103-11fz89.html
7.5
Renewable Energy Target: 20% has never been the actual target
Why fixate on 20% renewables? It’s never been the actual target. One review of the
RET recommended that targets to be expressed in gigawatt hours and not as a
percentage of overall electricity demand, to give the markets more certainly.
http://theconversation.com/why-fixate-on-20-renewables-its-never-been-the-actualtarget-34130
7.6
Nations are now fiercely competing for low carbon development
Amanda McKenzie, CEO Climate Council writes:
It's common sense to most of us that, as one of the sunniest and windiest countries in
the world, Australia has unrivalled renewable energy potential. But our latest report
finds that we’re losing out on opportunities and investment to countries like
China and the US - who are surging ahead with renewable energy. In the past year
alone investment in Australian renewables has dropped back 70%.
Read our latest report to see more about how Australia’s efforts to tackle climate
change measure up against the rest of the world.
The good news story globally is that China consolidated its position as the world’s
renewable energy powerhouse in the past year with 2.6 million people employed in
renewable energy jobs and renewables providing nearly one fifth of China’s
annual electricity generation. China installed more renewable energy capacity than
fossil fuels in 2013. It also retired 77 gigawatts (GW) of coal power stations between
2006 and 2010 and aims to retire a further 20 GW by 2015.
The US is also rapidly exploiting the global shift to renewable energy, coming second
only to China for installed renewable energy.
Read our latest report for more on the global response to climate change and how
Australia measures up.
What's clear is that the world is building towards a tipping point of action and nations
are now fiercely competing for low carbon investment. The global energy transition
from fossil fuels to renewable energy is now underway. Whereas in the past China
and the US may have been viewed as laggards, today they have stepped up to the
plate and are providing substantial global leadership. Australia continues to lag
behind the rest of the world on tackling climate change. There is much more to be
done if we are to protect Australians from a changing climate.
7.7
Australia losing ground as climate race gains pace
In 2013, for the first time, China installed more renewable energy capacity than fossil
fuel or nuclear. In 2013, China invested US$56.3 billion (A$65.7 billion) in
renewable energy – more than all of Europe combined – and now is home to 24% of
the world’s renewable energy capacity. As befits the world’s biggest nation, China is
now number one in installed renewable energy capacity, new installations, and
investment. ... United States is second in the world for installed renewable energy,
which provided 12.9% of its electricity in 2013. ... In Australia, since the carbon price
repeal, National Electricity Market emissions were up 4 million tonnes on the
equivalent period last financial year. This increase in emissions corresponds with a
growth in the share of coal in electricity generation, up from 69.6% in July 2014 to
76.4% in October 2014, while output from hydro power has dropped.
http://theconversation.com/australia-is-losing-ground-as-the-climate-policy-racegains-pace-33941
7.8
The cost of rehabilitating coal mines
Mark Wakeham of Environment Victoria points out a sleeper issue – the huge bill for
rehabilitating a plant and mine site. The state holds a $15-million bond from each of
the Latrobe Valley generators, but this is a fraction of how much it would cost to
clean up a coalmine. The inquiry into the fire in the Hazelwood coalmine last summer
heard owners GDF Suez had budgeted $81 million for rehab. Wakeham believes the
actual cost would be greater, and the clean-up would create hundreds of jobs that
could last two decades. He says the state government could increase the mine
rehabilitation bonds substantially and introduce gradually tightening emissions
standards to force the dirtiest plants out – and make a potential buyer for Anglesea
[coal fired power station] think twice.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/victorian-stateelection-2014-will-coal-power-stations-be-forced-out-by-the-market-2014110811izbg.html
7.9
What is Coalition’s Direct Action Policy: April 2014
The Government has released a white paper that details how the centrepiece of the
policy - the Emissions Reduction Fund - will operate. The Emissions Reduction Fund
is budgeted to cost $2.55 billion over four years, starting on July 1, 2014.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-20/coalition-climate-change-direct-actionpolicy-explained/5067188
7.10 Direct Action Payments Hidden: Commercial in Confidence
The first Emission Reduction Fund auction is expected to be held by April of 2015
however the government has indicated that it will not be possible to see who had
received what money and on what promise as this would be "commercial-inconfidence". Instead, the government plans to publish what it has called "weighted
averages." Government officials defended the lack of transparency on the grounds
that if one company knew what another had proposed to reduce emissions by a set
amount, that could then be undercut to secure the subsidy and achieve a commercial
advantage.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/direct-action-on-pollutionreduction-will-work-abbott-government-20141031-11eyya.html
7.11 Renewable Energy Plans for Australia
Several alternative energy solutions have been researched and presented to
government. These include:
The Beyond Zero Emissions: Stationery Energy plan
http://bze.org.au/zero-carbon-australia/stationary-energy-plan
The Australian Energy Market Operator: Report on 100% Renewable Electricity
Scenarios. AEMO runs Australia’s National Energy Market.
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/reducing-carbon/aemo-report-100-renewableelectricity-scenarios
Greenpeace Energy Revolution Report
http://www.greenpeace.org/australia/en/what-we-do/climate/Report-2010/
Greenpeace: Solutions: Green Jobs and Economy
http://www.greenpeace.org/australia/en/what-we-do/climate/Report-2010/SolutionsGreen-Jobs-and-Economy/
All of these solutions show how Australia can harness its abundant free energy from
the wind and sun to be a net energy exporter of pollution free energy.
8
8.1
About this newsletter
How to get this monthly newsletter
To have this newsletter emailed to you monthly, send me an email like:
“Subscribe: Please send me your safe climate newsletter”
8.2
Unsubscribe from this newsletter
To stop getting this newsletter, send me an email like:
“Unsubscribe: Please stop sending me your safe climate newsletter”
8.3
Privacy and Security
I am set up to keep your personal information secure. For example:
 I do not share your details with others,
 I pay for effective anti-virus software, and
 I store the newsletter distribution list apart from my email
If you have questions about this, do contact me.
8.4
Origin of the Newsletter
This newsletter was produced by Peter Gardner until he began campaigning, during
the 2013 Federal election, as a “Climate Emergency Independent” for the seat of
Gippsland in Victoria. He is currently standing for the seat of East Gippsland in the
2014 Victorian Elections.
www.petergardner.info
8.5
Some of these newsletter are on the web
Some of these newsletters are on the web as doc files:
www.feedbackreigns.net About Section > Newsletter
8.6
Compiler of the newsletter
Andrew Gunner compiled this newsletter
Contact via: www.feedbackreigns.net