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WP 2.2.3 – Impacts on nature – Terrestrial-aquatic ecotones Partner 5 – GeoEcoMar – National Institute of Marine Geology and Geoecology, Romania Preamble – Rationale Ecotone - The edge or transition zone between two adjacent ecological systems: • • • • • • Ecotones are dynamic and more complex constituents of ecological systems that influence biodiversity and ecosystem function disproportionately to their geographic extent Ecotones are areas where biophysical factors, biological activity and ecological evolutionary processes are concentrated and intensified Ecotones include zones of interaction where large scale land use change produces moving fronts of human settlements Ecotones are transition areas between adjacent but different environments: habitats, ecosystems, landscapes, biomes, or ecoclimatic regions. Ecotones that are unique entities in the context of climate change are transition zones between ecoclimatic regions. Ecotones have narrow spatial extent, a steep ecological gradient and hence high species richness, a unique species combination, genetically unique populations, and high intra-species genetic diversity (http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/669.htm) Aquatic-Terrestrial Ecotones, including Coastal Zones and Marine Ecosystems – highly vulnerable ecosystem to climatic change (http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/669.htm) Coastal zones are among the world's most diverse and productive environments. Climate change will affect the physical, biological, and biogeochemical characteristics of the oceans and coasts, modifying their ecological structure, their functions, and the goods and services they provide; these changes will have profound impacts on the status, sustainability, productivity, and biodiversity of the coastal zone and marine ecosystems. With global climate change, many coastal systems will experience largescale impacts: • • • • • • • • Increases in sea level and sea-surface temperature; Decreases in sea-ice cover; Changes in salinity, alkalinity, wave climate, and ocean circulation; Increased levels of inundation and storm flooding; Accelerated coastal erosion; Seawater intrusion into fresh groundwater; Encroachment of tidal waters into estuaries and river systems; Elevated sea-surface and ground temperatures. Wetlands are defined as transitional lands between terrestrial and aquatic systems where the water table is at / near the surface or the land is covered by shallow water. Boundaries between water bodies (lakes, ponds, reservoirs) and adjacent terrestrial patches - lentic ecotones - play an important role in coupling terrestrial with aquatic 1 ecosystems. Several specific ecotonal structures and processes are characteristic of areas bordering water bodies. These include specific physical and chemical characteristics, as well as the occurrence of unique plant and animal communities and their associated biological processes. Land-inland water ecotones are environments of exceptional diversity, but are also highly vulnerable to impacts from human settlement. Characteristics of ecotones that may have significance for aquatic landscape management • • • • Ecotones provide unique habitats for biota: High Biological Diversity: Alluvial forests, Fish, Animals, Birds; High Biological Productivity: Wetland forests, Fisheries, Birds, Sources for Species Dispersal to New Patches (Ecotones). Ecotones regulate interpatch dynamics: Contribute organic matter to aquatic system Provide nutrients sinks for agricultural runoff and Influence movement and migration of birds and mammals. Ecotones may provide indicators of hydroclimatic change: Interface systems between process domains are particularly sensitive to external controls and may be useful indicators of environmental impacts. Ecotones have strong visual quality: Create colour, variety, and distinctive images Create both prospect and refuge images and Provide wilderness experience. The issues referring to the aquatic-terrestrial ecotones have a huge usefulness nowadays being key elements for detecting global change and influencing biodiversity. A majority of ecotonal habitats are under visible human impact; lake eutrophication, airborne pollution, sewage input, agricultural practices, tourist activity, and other activities change lentic ecotones and often damage them (disappearance of terrestrial and aquatic vegetation is the most common response to unfavourable conditions): • • Land-water ecotones contain a particularly diverse range of habitats. Ecotones act to modify, or even control, transmission of disturbances between patches. • Ecotones can also be used to assist the recovery of patches from disturbance by using their natural properties for adaptive silvicultural and engineering solutions. • Ecotones, patches, and ecosystems are naturally variable in time and space. Yet most aquatic systems are managed for stability. • An ecotone approach would require a new, and needed, perspective for the management of uncertainty. • The difficult issues related to the conservation of natural systems could be made easier if key ecotonal features were preserved and protected. Finally, many of the environmental issues we face are directly driven by global resource economics and international monetary exchange rates. Their effects on land use patterns and environmental quality require a patch-ecotone perspective. The positive aspects of an 'ecotone perspective' for the management of aquatic systems include improved water quality, improved fish and wildlife production, enhanced recreational opportunities, an aesthetically pleasing environment, and a human population in better harmony with nature for the long term. Combined, these 2 aspects present a strong argument for considering an ecotone perspective for ecological systems. Lentic ecotones, because of their multiple ecological functions and their significance in the landscape and in water bodies, require special protection and management. Management practices in ecotonal habitats between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems should include protection of natural shores, restoration of degraded sites, and creation of new habitats that can serve as a protective barrier for dissolved nutrients and particulates. Impacts of Climate Change on Wetland Ecosystems (after Johnson et al., 2003) ClimateDriven Change Likely Impacts on Physical Properties Earlier ice-out and snow melt • Wet periods are shorter, especially in ephemeral wetlands. Lower summer water levels • Isolation and fragmentation within wetland complexes increase. • Fens store less carbon. • Reductions in dissolved organic carbon result in less attenuation of ultraviolet-B radiation. Warmer temperatures • Evaporative losses increase. • Fens and bogs store less carbon. More frequent heavy rainfall events • Wetlands increase in extent. Likely Impacts on Ecosystems • Fast-developing insect and amphibian species are favored, as are species with resting stages. • The timing of amphibian and insect life cycles could be disrupted. • Habitat and migration corridors are reduced, as are hydrologic connections to riparian zones and groundwater recharge. • Emergent vegetation and shrubs dominate plant communities. • Amphibian and fish reproduction fails more often in dry years. • Organisms with poor dispersal abilities become extinct. • The rates of decomposition and respiration increase. • Insects emerge earlier. • Primary and secondary production per unit of biomass increase when nutrients are not limited. • Species at the southern extent of the range become extinct. • Habitat area increases. • Ground-nesting birds may be lost during floods. Intensifying or Confounding Variables • Snowmelt occurs earlier and faster in urban areas and where coniferous forest harvest has occurred. • Agricultural and urban development exacerbates fragmentation effects. • Impervious surfaces increase water temperature. • More competition from invasive species may accelerate extinctions. • Wetland losses from development reduce flood storage capacity. 3 ClimateDriven Change Likely Impacts on Physical Properties Elevated atmospheric CO 2 Likely Impacts on Ecosystems Intensifying or Confounding Variables • Possible changes in leaf litter quality could impact aquatic food webs. Climate Change Impacts on Fish Ecology and Consequences for Fisheries (after Kling et al. 2003; Philip Gibbs) Climate Change Impacts on Fish Ecology Consequences for Fisheries Change in overall fish production in a particular aquatic ecosystem Change in relative productivity of individual fish populations in a particular aquatic ecosystem Change in sustainable harvests for all fish populations in the ecosystem Change in the relative levels of exploitation that can be sustainably directed against the fish populations of the ecosystem Small-scale shifts in the spatial distribution of members of a specific population Change in mixture of species that can be sustainably harvested within a specific geographic area Change in location of profitable fishing grounds Large-scale shifts in geographic distribution of species Change in sustainable harvest for the population Change inefficiency of fishing gear, leading to change in sustainable levels of fishing effort Introduction The following is a summary of findings taken from the paper "Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve, Romania" published in 2009 by United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (Content Partner); Mark McGinley (Topic Editor), in: Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment) [First published in the Encyclopedia of Earth December 10, 2007; Last revised April 19, 2009; Retrieved July 20, 2009] <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Danube_Delta_Biosphere_Reserve, Romania> with additional reference to other material indicated in the text. Coastal wetlands No.1 Statement Sea level rise will result in inundation and displacement of coastal wetlands and lowlands. Comments Accelerated sea-level rise is one effect of climate warming that will have profound impacts on all coastal regions: • elevation of water table in low-lying coastal areas; • salinisation of aquifers; • increase of the intensity and frequency of storm effects along the coast; • beach erosion; 4 • flooding, etc. These physical changes are also leading to biologic responses • changes in the range of species, • loss of habitat, such as coastal wetlands (IPCC, 2007). This change is expected to present regional differences in Europe’s natural resources and assets. For instance in Southern Europe, climate change is projected to worsen conditions (high temperatures and drought) in a region already vulnerable to climate variability, and to reduce water availability, hydropower potential, summer tourism, and in general, crop productivity. IPCC estimates that the global average sea level will rise between 0.18 to 0.59 meters in the next century (IPCC, 2007). Evidence indicates that rising sea level will first affects regions with large areas of near sea-level land and areas with low tide range, such as the Mediterranean and North-Western Black Sea. In Italy, for example, it was indicated an increase of the mean sea level between 1.08 and 1.64 mm/yr. The Northern Adriatic mean sea level increased by 20 cm during the last 100 years. This increase induces a retreat of 3-6 meters in 100 years (3-6 cm/yr) for beaches with a gradient of 2°-4°. The subsidence rate of this territory, about 2-3 mm/yr, which could be enhanced due to subsurface fluid withdrawal, affects the coastal evolution. The subsidence on the low coastal beaches of Emilia-Romagna induces a shoreline retreat as well as an increase of the nearshore gradient, thus determining a reduction of the sandy coastal body (a subsidence rate of 1,5 to 3 mm/yr induced a lost of 0,6 Mm3/yr of sand) (Corbau & Simeoni, 2008). The most threatened coastal wetlands within Eastern Europe are Danube Delta (having an altitude vs. Sea-level to 15 m), estuaries, beaches, and salt marshes. The Black Sea coasts, with their extremely low tidal ranges (0.12 cm, practically no tide), will be more susceptible to sea level rise than the other European coasts, which experience much higher tidal ranges. In addition, the eutrophication, the “red tides” followed by hypoxia and mass mortalities, the invasion of some exotic specie, the erosion and the extent of urban, industrial and agricultural development along the North-Western Black Sea coast has reduced the resilience and adaptation options for the coastal zone to respond to the impacts of to climate variability and change. There has already been considerable subsidence and reduced sediment delivery to these regions as a result of natural (and human) factors. Further oriented analysis of population estimates and distributions may provide additional evidence of such responses by other wetland species. Rising air and sea temperatures may decrease the incidence of sea ice during winter and increase the incidence of algal blooms in coastal areas. Consequences are difficult to predict, but some of them should be mentioned: • Loss of terrestrial habitats having lowest altitudes (near sea level), e.g. Grindul Chituc, the narrow belt of sand between littoral lakes and the sea; • Loss of aquatic habitats, freshwater or brackish water lakes, e.g. Sinoe, Razelm, Zmeica, Golovita Lakes; • Loss of biodiversity, especially the relicts forms harbored in the paramarine lakes (Mollusks from Fam. Adacnidae); • Loss of some important fisheries in the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve; • Loss of some touristic beaches. E.g. along the Grindul Chituc littoral belt 5 No.2 Statement The low Danube River stretch and Danube Delta are thought to be susceptible to climate change. Comments There has already been considerable subsidence and reduced sediment delivery to these regions as a result of natural (and human) factors. Research needs Further oriented analysis of population estimates and distributions may provide additional evidence of such responses by other wetland species. Rising air and sea temperatures may decrease the incidence of sea ice during winter and increase the incidence of algal blooms in coastal areas. No.3 Statement Loss of habitats associated with marshes and flooded flats following sea level rise and flooding after high Danube River waters. Comments Shallow freshwater wetlands are already stressed as ecological transition zones between aquatic and upland terrestrial ecosystems, making them particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation. The main factors influencing the Romanian littoral are: • sea level rise (0.128 cm/year) (Malciu, 2000); • decrease in Danube sediment load; • disruption of sediment transport as a consequence of hydro-technical coastal works (harbors extension and protection systems); • tectonic movements. Conservation Value The Delta is the meeting point of Palaearctic and Mediterranean biogeographic zones and represents a unique dynamic wetland ecosystem in Europe (the second largest delta) containing a rich biodiversity of wetland habitats. The site is internationally significant for birds, both breeding and migratory, including a number of globallythreatened species. It is also a vitally important buffer system between the hydrographical basin of the River Danube and the Black Sea. Within the 'Delta' biosphere reserve (covering some 679,222h a) 18,145 ha are included in a separate biosphere designation (the core zone covers two-thirds of the area, the peripheral areas forming the buffer zone) and 43,790 ha in seven nature reserves (two of which overlap with the biosphere reserve). The 18,145 ha Rosca-Letea was declared a biosphere reserve in 1979 (the Rosca area has been protected since 1961 and Letea 6 Forest since 1978); the nature reserves are: Rosca-Buhaiova-Hrecisca (15,600 ha but including part of the biosphere reserve), Perisor-Zatoane-Sacalin (15,400 ha), Istria (8,000 ha), Periteasca-Leahova-Gura Portitei (3,900 ha), Popina (90 ha), Saraturile (100 ha) and Hasmacul Mare (700 ha). These existing nature reserves are considered to be undisturbed zones which are totally protected Botnariuc & Vadineanu,1982; Botnariuc etal., 1975). Danube Delta was designated a Wetland of International Importance under the Ramsar Convention in 1991, inscribed on the World Heritage List in 1991 and internationally recognized as a Biosphere Reserve under UNESCO's Man and the Biosphere Programme in 1992. The loss of marshes and/or terrestrial/aquatic ecotones habitat by 2080 due to sea level rise alone, estimated at 31-100% for the Mediterranean coast, 84-98% for the Baltic coast, and 0-17% for the Atlantic coast cannot be assessed for the Danube Delta, although dome breaks in the littoral sandy belts resulted from active coastal erosion. The variability mentioned above reflects the range of sea level rise scenarios as well as uncertainty about coastal wetland responses to sea level rise. Losses of these habitat types will reduce available habitat for wildlife, including fish and migratory bird species. The combined pressures of sea level rise, coastal erosion and coastal development (resulting in "coastal squeeze") could reduce the availability of dune beach areas, resulting in loss of feeding habitat and causing population declines in wintering shorebirds. Recognizing the fact that the biodiversity of water and forest, for instance, are strongly linked and interdependent, the participants of the European Platform for Biodiversity Research Strategy meeting concerning “Biodiversity of Freshwater and Forest Science in support of the Ecosystem Approach" (Sigtuna, Sweden, 11 - 12 June 2001) made some recommendations on the forest-water ecotones: • • • • • The components of biodiversity in forest and water interact over great distances, with the result that the ecotone between these ecosystems is often an extensive area of mutual influence, rather than a narrow strip. Both forest and water ecosystems are complex and interaction between them contributes to the complexity and richness of biodiversity in the ecotone. These ecosystems and zones of interaction are multifunctional and provide a wide range of services and benefits to society. While the nature of interactions affecting biodiversity in the forest-water ecotone may be similar from one part of Europe to another, the relative importance of the interactions may vary greatly. Drivers of biodiversity change of particular importance in the ecotone include carbon sequestration, acid deposition, and ecosystem dynamics, the demand for energy, water, wood, and food and, in some parts of Europe, flood control, recreation and urbanisation. Management practices have a key role in the protection and restoration of biodiversity in this zone. Riparian zones are dynamic and exhibit disproportionately high biodiversity relative to their surface area. They play important economic and ecological roles in flood mitigation and water quality. Riparian zones at the interface of forest and water act as buffer zones between the two and are affected by the management practices of both ecosystems. 7 No.4 Statement Flooded flats following sea level rise and flooding after high Danube River waters, increase in the surface temperature and extreme episodic events characterizing global change can affect in a great extent the human health. Comments Rising air and sea temperatures may decrease the incidence of sea ice during winter and increase the incidence of algal blooms in coastal areas. For example, the relationship between temperature increase and malaria parasite development time inside mosquito (“extrinsic incubation period” or EIP): EIP shortens at higher temps, so mosquitoes become infectious sooner; 67% of waterborne disease outbreaks were preceded by precipitation above the 80th percentile (across a 50 yr. climate record), p<0.001; 51% of outbreaks were preceded by precipitation above the 90th percentile, p<0.002; Surface water-related outbreaks had strongest correlation with extreme precipitation in the month of outbreak; groundwater-related outbreaks lagged 2 months following extreme precipitation (Curriero, et al, 2001; Patz, 2008); 88% of disease burden attributable to climate change afflicts children < age 5 – obviously an innocent and ‘non-consenting’ segment of the population, is another major axis of inequity. HEALTH EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE The World Health Organization already considers global warming as a serious threat to sustainable public health. (WHO, 1990). Climate change (according to IPCC estimates: temperature rise - 3°C by yr. 2100, sea level rise - 40 cm by yr. 2100 and hydrologic extremes) is projected to have adverse impacts on public health. Cobenefits may be possible from the upstream mitigation of greenhouse gases causing climate change. To help measure such cobenefits alongside averted disease-specific risks, a health impact assessment (HIA) framework can more comprehensively serve as a decision support tool. HIA also considers health equity, clearly part of the climate change problem. New choices for energy must be made carefully considering such effects as additional pressure on the world's forests through large-scale expansion of soybean and oil palm plantations, leading to forest clearing, biodiversity loss and disease emergence, expulsion of subsistence farmers, and potential increases in food prices and emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Investigators must consider the full range of policy options, supported by more comprehensive, flexible, and transparent assessment methods (Patz et all., 2008). Potential Negative Health Impacts of Climate Variability and Change: • • • • • Urban Heat Island Effect → Heat Stress, Cardiorespiratory failure Air Pollution & Aeroallergens → Respiratory diseases, e.g., COPD & Asthma Vector-borne Diseases → Malaria, Dengue, Encephalitis, Hantavirus, Rift Valley Fever Water-borne Diseases → Cholera, Cyclospora, Cryptosporidiosis, Campylobacter, Leptospirosis Water resources & food supply → Malnutrition, Diarrhea, Toxic Red Tides 8 • Mental Health & Environmental Refugees → Forced Migration, Overcrowding, Infectious diseases, Human Conflicts Ecotones play a role in a number of the most important emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). Parallel research on (EIDs) and the causes of increased rates of pathogen transmission, spread, and adaptation suggests a correspondence between ecotonal processes and the ecological and evolutionary processes responsible for zoonotic and vector-borne emerging infections. However, the similar disease ecologies of these with about half of the approximately 130 zoonotic EIDs suggests ecotones, particularly their anthropogenic origination or modification, may be generally associated with the global trend of increasing EIDs (Dickson et al., 2006). Research needs Strategies for future research which have to provide valuable information to decision makers should be include the following priority areas (Naiman et al., 1998; Naiman & Decamps, 1990): • • • • • • Study the importance of upland-wetland ecotones in a variety of landscapes simultaneously. Characterize the relationship between wetland size, hydrologic characteristics, and dimensions of the ecotone on the assimilative capacity of the wetland patches and ecotones. Use existing management questions to develop a series of experiments that will test our ability to maintain or enhance the functions of wetland ecotones. Identify traditional, low-intensity management techniques that have successfully maintained or enhanced the functions of wetland ecotones in the past. Utilize existing descriptive and predictive models to identify parameters of wetland patches and ecotones that need to be better understood. Establish lateral transects crossing from uplands to wetlands to open water ecosystems and assess biological diversity in wetland-upland and wetland-open water ecotones. The following key issues have high priority for European research, both as general targets and particularly in mixed forest-water ecosystems (EPBRS Declarations - Sigtuna, Sweden, 11 - 12 June 2001 http://www.bioplatform.info/decl_sweden.htm ): a) Inventory, taxonomy and systematics: a primary goal of research in this ecotone must be to identify, inventory and classify European species that are under threat of global, regional or local extinction. This research should include the improvement and harmonisation of the systematics of taxa in this ecotone; b) Ecosystem functions and interactions: Research is required on the resilience of the forest-water ecotone and the services provided by the ecosystems that compose it, up to the catchment scale or bio-geographical region. This research must also clarify how biological diversity is related to the resilience of this ecotone, and should focus on how biodiversity and ecosystem services respond to or influence the ecosystem biology (e.g. dispersal), chemistry (e.g. acidification and eutrophication), physics (e.g. silting), hydrodynamics and hydrology, and the needs of society (including sustainable use); 9 c) Modelling the effects of large-scale drivers: There is an urgent need for improved models of forest-water ecological systems, human activities and landscapes, including successional development and habitat fragmentation; d) Management practices: Research is urgently needed to monitor the effect of management, and where appropriate to improve management practices. This research should also include the scientific understanding, testing and development of the CBD ecosystem approach; e) Biodiversity assessment tools. Research is needed to establish criteria for setting targets and objectives for management, and to generate standardised protocols to monitor biodiversity status and trends, and ecosystem dynamics, with a view to conservation or sustainable use, taking into account human values, economic benefits, attitudes and aspirations. These five issues are presented in a sequence that starts with the underpinning or basic science and ends with research issues that have an immediate relevance to policy. There is a strong interdependence between these issues, and they are not ordered by any relative priority. The major improvements needed in the knowledge base are: • • • Synthetic models of complex phenomena and complex systems A classification scheme based on appropriate spatial and temporal scales Better understanding of ecotonal relationships between surface waters and groundwater • Greater comprehension of ecotones as natural systems that can speed the recovery process of damaged systems • Mechanisms and processes for efficient managerial implementation of ecotonal information and improved societal awareness of ecotonal values Addressing these knowledge gaps can be partly accomplished with existing tools and techniques. However, there is a huge need to advance quickly in developing new techniques or in adapting existing methods from other disciplines. The major tools and techniques needed include: • • • • Improved training and use of high speed computers for evaluating connectivity, variability, and cumulative effects in complex systems Development of spatial and temporal statistical methods for the quantitative evaluation of patch and boundary dynamics Continual development of techniques associated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), and remote sensing (SPOT, Landsat, EOS) that have direct relevance to ecotone identification and processes Development of long-term demonstration sites that can be used for interdisciplinary and cross-cultural education at all levels (e.g. societal, scientific, and managerial) Many of these needs are being addressed independently by other programs concerned with the environmental issues in the next decade. A major task will be to adapt the knowledge, tools, and techniques to an 'ecotonal perspective' in order to provide a solid 10 conceptual and practical framework for improving environmental understanding and the human condition. Uncertainties There is a continuing lack of detailed information about the distribution, extent and use of wetlands which makes it difficult to predict the impacts of climate change. Lack of consistent wetland classification exacerbates this problem. In addition, changes in wetlands are dominated by changes in catchment hydrology which are poorly understood. Climate change has certainly already affected some wetlands in Europe and will continue to do so, also in the Danube Delta. However, lack of regionally-specific wetland data and regional climate change scenarios, let alone catchment level climate change scenarios, make it difficult to predict the impacts of climate change on many wetlands. Many pressures (e.g. land use change, pollution, abstraction of water for urban or agricultural use) act on wetlands simultaneously, but often with different time lags: for example, the run-off changes due to deforestation can be slow compared with those due to local temperature changes caused by changes in the frequency and intensity of El Niño-like phenomena. This complexity adds to the problems of considering not only climate change impacts but the adaptation options as well. References BioPlatform, 2001 - European Platform for Biodiversity Recommendations of the participants of the European Platform for Biodiversity Research Strategy meeting held under the Swedish residency of the EU in Sigtuna, Sweden, 11 - 12 June 2001 concerning “Biodiversity of Freshwater and Forest Science in support of the Ecosystem Approach". http://www.bioplatform.info/objectives.htm Botnariuc N., & Vadineanu A. , 1982 - Tendinte in evolutia Deltei Dunarii si posibilitati de protectie. In: Stugren B. (Coordinator) - Probleme Actuale ale Ocrotirii Naturii. Edit. Dacia, Cluj, Romania. Botnariuc N., Toniuc N., & Filipascu A., 1975 - Necesitatea infiintarii parcurilor nationale in Delta Dunarii. Ocrotirera Naturii. Tom 19: 2, Bucuresti. Corbau Corinne, Simeoni Umberto, 2008 - Impacts of climate changes (sea level rise and increased number of extreme meteorological events) on sandy coasts. example of the Emilia-Romagna Region (Northern Italy). International Seminar on Natural Hazards in the Marine Area 28-29 July 2008, Bucharest, Romania). Curriero F.C., Patz J.A., Rose J.B., Lele S., 2001 - Analysis of the association between extreme precipitation and waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States, 1948-1994. Am J Public Health 2001 (Aug) 91:1194-99 Dickson D., Brett E., Bruce W., 2006 - The Role of Ecotones in Emerging Infectious Diseases. EcoHealth, Vol. 3, No. 4: 281-289. Gibbs Ph., Climate Change and the Fisheries of NSW - a Background Paper for NSW Department of Primary Industries http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/191522/Cli mate-hange-and-fisheries---a-background-paper.pdf 11 IPCC, 2007 – Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of working Group II to the Third Assessment Report on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 1000pp. Johnson L., Hayhoe K., Kling G., Magnuson J. and Shuter B., 2003 - Wetland Ecosystems - Technical Appendix. Report on Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/ Malciu V., 2000 - Implications of Accelerated Sea-Level Rise (ASLR) for Romania. Proceeding of SURVAS Expert Workshop on European Vulnerability and Adaptation to impacts of Accelerated Sea-Level Rise (ASLR)- Hamburg, Germany, 19th-21st June 2000. McCarthy J. James, Canziani F. Osvaldo, Leary A. Neil, Dokken J. David, White S. Kasey, (Editors), 2003 - Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. GRID-Arendal (http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/6 69.htmhttp://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/ wg2/669.htmhttp://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipc c_tar/wg2/669.htmhttp://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/clim ate/ipcc_tar/wg2/669.htmOcean) Naiman R.J., Décamps H ., (Eds). , 1990 – The Ecology and Management of AquaticTerrestrial Ecotones. Man and the Biosphere Series, Volume 4, UNESCO, Paris: 316 pp. Naiman R.J., Décamps H ., Fournier F., (Eds). , 1989 - The role of land / inland water ecotones in landscape management and restoration: a proposal for collaborative research. M A B Digest 4. Unesco, Paris: 93 pp. Patz J., 2008 - Global Warming & Health: Great Risks AND Opportunities. Presentation to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) April 9, 2008 http://www.opas.org.br/ambiente/uploadArq/ev_127_apre_13.pdf Patz J., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Gibbs. H., Woodruff R., 2008 - Health Impact Assessment of Global Climate Change: Expanding on Comparative Risk Assessment Approaches for Policy Making. Annual Review of Public Health, April 2008, Vol. 29: 27-39. (doi: 10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.020907.090750) WHO, 1990 - Potential health effects of climate change. Geneva: World Health Organization. 12