Download WP 2 - GeoEcoMar

Survey
yes no Was this document useful for you?
   Thank you for your participation!

* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project

Document related concepts

Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup

Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup

Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup

Climate resilience wikipedia , lookup

General circulation model wikipedia , lookup

Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup

Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup

Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup

Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup

Climate governance wikipedia , lookup

Global warming wikipedia , lookup

Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup

Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup

Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup

Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup

Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup

Effects of global warming on oceans wikipedia , lookup

Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup

Physical impacts of climate change wikipedia , lookup

Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup

Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup

Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup

Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup

Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup

Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup

Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup

Years of Living Dangerously wikipedia , lookup

Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup

Hotspot Ecosystem Research and Man's Impact On European Seas wikipedia , lookup

Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup

Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup

Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup

Transcript
WP 2.2.3 – Impacts on nature – Terrestrial-aquatic ecotones
Partner 5 – GeoEcoMar – National Institute of Marine Geology and
Geoecology, Romania
Preamble – Rationale
Ecotone - The edge or transition zone between two adjacent ecological systems:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Ecotones are dynamic and more complex constituents of ecological systems that
influence biodiversity and ecosystem function disproportionately to their
geographic extent
Ecotones are areas where biophysical factors, biological activity and ecological
evolutionary processes are concentrated and intensified
Ecotones include zones of interaction where large scale land use change
produces moving fronts of human settlements
Ecotones are transition areas between adjacent but different environments:
habitats, ecosystems, landscapes, biomes, or ecoclimatic regions.
Ecotones that are unique entities in the context of climate change are transition
zones between ecoclimatic regions.
Ecotones have narrow spatial extent, a steep ecological gradient and hence high
species richness, a unique species combination, genetically unique populations,
and high intra-species genetic diversity
(http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/669.htm)
Aquatic-Terrestrial Ecotones, including Coastal Zones and Marine Ecosystems –
highly vulnerable ecosystem to climatic change
(http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/669.htm)
Coastal zones are among the world's most diverse and productive environments.
Climate change will affect the physical, biological, and biogeochemical characteristics of
the oceans and coasts, modifying their ecological structure, their functions, and the
goods and services they provide; these changes will have profound impacts on the
status, sustainability, productivity, and biodiversity of the coastal zone and marine
ecosystems. With global climate change, many coastal systems will experience largescale impacts:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Increases in sea level and sea-surface temperature;
Decreases in sea-ice cover;
Changes in salinity, alkalinity, wave climate, and ocean circulation;
Increased levels of inundation and storm flooding;
Accelerated coastal erosion;
Seawater intrusion into fresh groundwater;
Encroachment of tidal waters into estuaries and river systems;
Elevated sea-surface and ground temperatures.
Wetlands are defined as transitional lands between terrestrial and aquatic systems
where the water table is at / near the surface or the land is covered by shallow water.
Boundaries between water bodies (lakes, ponds, reservoirs) and adjacent terrestrial
patches - lentic ecotones - play an important role in coupling terrestrial with aquatic
1
ecosystems. Several specific ecotonal structures and processes are characteristic of
areas bordering water bodies. These include specific physical and chemical
characteristics, as well as the occurrence of unique plant and animal communities and
their associated biological processes. Land-inland water ecotones are environments of
exceptional diversity, but are also highly vulnerable to impacts from human settlement.
Characteristics of ecotones that may have significance for aquatic landscape
management
•
•
•
•
Ecotones provide unique habitats for biota:
 High Biological Diversity: Alluvial forests, Fish, Animals, Birds;
 High Biological Productivity: Wetland forests, Fisheries, Birds, Sources
for Species Dispersal to New Patches (Ecotones).
Ecotones regulate interpatch dynamics:
 Contribute organic matter to aquatic system
 Provide nutrients sinks for agricultural runoff and
 Influence movement and migration of birds and mammals.
Ecotones may provide indicators of hydroclimatic change: Interface systems
between process domains are particularly sensitive to external controls and may
be useful indicators of environmental impacts.
Ecotones have strong visual quality:
 Create colour, variety, and distinctive images
 Create both prospect and refuge images and
 Provide wilderness experience.
The issues referring to the aquatic-terrestrial ecotones have a huge usefulness
nowadays being key elements for detecting global change and influencing biodiversity.
A majority of ecotonal habitats are under visible human impact; lake eutrophication,
airborne pollution, sewage input, agricultural practices, tourist activity, and other
activities change lentic ecotones and often damage them (disappearance of terrestrial
and aquatic vegetation is the most common response to unfavourable conditions):
•
•
Land-water ecotones contain a particularly diverse range of habitats.
Ecotones act to modify, or even control, transmission of disturbances between
patches.
• Ecotones can also be used to assist the recovery of patches from disturbance by
using their natural properties for adaptive silvicultural and engineering solutions.
• Ecotones, patches, and ecosystems are naturally variable in time and space. Yet
most aquatic systems are managed for stability.
• An ecotone approach would require a new, and needed, perspective for the
management of uncertainty.
• The difficult issues related to the conservation of natural systems could be made
easier if key ecotonal features were preserved and protected.
Finally, many of the environmental issues we face are directly driven by global
resource economics and international monetary exchange rates. Their effects on
land use patterns and environmental quality require a patch-ecotone perspective.
The positive aspects of an 'ecotone perspective' for the management of aquatic
systems include improved water quality, improved fish and wildlife production,
enhanced recreational opportunities, an aesthetically pleasing environment, and a
human population in better harmony with nature for the long term. Combined, these
2
aspects present a strong argument for considering an ecotone perspective for
ecological systems.
Lentic ecotones, because of their multiple ecological functions and their significance in
the landscape and in water bodies, require special protection and management.
Management practices in ecotonal habitats between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems
should include protection of natural shores, restoration of degraded sites, and creation
of new habitats that can serve as a protective barrier for dissolved nutrients and
particulates.
Impacts of Climate Change on Wetland Ecosystems (after Johnson et al., 2003)
ClimateDriven Change
Likely Impacts on
Physical Properties
Earlier ice-out
and snow melt
• Wet periods are
shorter, especially in
ephemeral wetlands.
Lower summer water
levels
• Isolation and
fragmentation within
wetland complexes
increase.
• Fens store less
carbon.
• Reductions in
dissolved organic
carbon result in less
attenuation of
ultraviolet-B radiation.
Warmer temperatures
• Evaporative losses
increase.
• Fens and bogs store
less carbon.
More frequent
heavy rainfall
events
• Wetlands increase in
extent.
Likely Impacts on
Ecosystems
• Fast-developing insect
and amphibian
species are favored,
as are species with
resting stages.
• The timing of
amphibian and insect
life cycles could be
disrupted.
• Habitat and migration
corridors are reduced,
as are hydrologic
connections to
riparian zones and
groundwater
recharge.
• Emergent vegetation
and shrubs dominate
plant communities.
• Amphibian and fish
reproduction fails
more often in dry
years.
• Organisms with poor
dispersal abilities
become extinct.
• The rates of
decomposition and
respiration increase.
• Insects emerge
earlier.
• Primary and
secondary production
per unit of biomass
increase when
nutrients are not
limited.
• Species at the
southern extent of the
range become extinct.
• Habitat area
increases.
• Ground-nesting birds
may be lost during
floods.
Intensifying or
Confounding
Variables
• Snowmelt occurs
earlier and faster in
urban areas and
where coniferous
forest harvest has
occurred.
• Agricultural and urban
development
exacerbates
fragmentation effects.
• Impervious surfaces
increase water
temperature.
• More competition from
invasive species may
accelerate extinctions.
• Wetland losses from
development reduce
flood storage capacity.
3
ClimateDriven Change
Likely Impacts on
Physical Properties
Elevated
atmospheric CO 2
Likely Impacts on
Ecosystems
Intensifying or
Confounding
Variables
• Possible changes in
leaf litter quality could
impact aquatic food
webs.
Climate Change Impacts on Fish Ecology and Consequences for Fisheries (after
Kling et al. 2003; Philip Gibbs)
Climate Change Impacts on Fish Ecology
Consequences for Fisheries
Change in overall fish production in a particular
aquatic ecosystem
Change in relative productivity of individual fish
populations in a particular aquatic ecosystem
Change in sustainable harvests for all fish populations
in the ecosystem
Change in the relative levels of exploitation that can
be sustainably directed against the fish populations
of the ecosystem
Small-scale shifts in the spatial distribution
of members of a specific population
Change in mixture of species that can be sustainably
harvested within a specific geographic area
Change in location of profitable fishing grounds
Large-scale shifts in geographic distribution
of species
Change in sustainable harvest for the population
Change inefficiency of fishing gear, leading to change
in sustainable levels of fishing effort
Introduction
The following is a summary of findings taken from the paper "Danube Delta Biosphere
Reserve, Romania" published in 2009 by United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (Content Partner); Mark McGinley (Topic Editor),
in: Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental
Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment) [First
published in the Encyclopedia of Earth December 10, 2007; Last revised April 19, 2009;
Retrieved July 20, 2009]
<http://www.eoearth.org/article/Danube_Delta_Biosphere_Reserve, Romania>
with additional reference to other material indicated in the text.
Coastal wetlands
No.1
Statement
Sea level rise will result in inundation and displacement of coastal wetlands and
lowlands.
Comments
Accelerated sea-level rise is one effect of climate warming that will have profound
impacts on all coastal regions:
• elevation of water table in low-lying coastal areas;
• salinisation of aquifers;
• increase of the intensity and frequency of storm effects along the coast;
• beach erosion;
4
• flooding, etc.
These physical changes are also leading to biologic responses
• changes in the range of species,
• loss of habitat, such as coastal wetlands (IPCC, 2007).
This change is expected to present regional differences in Europe’s natural resources
and assets. For instance in Southern Europe, climate change is projected to worsen
conditions (high temperatures and drought) in a region already vulnerable to climate
variability, and to reduce water availability, hydropower potential, summer tourism, and
in general, crop productivity.
IPCC estimates that the global average sea level will rise between 0.18 to 0.59 meters
in the next century (IPCC, 2007). Evidence indicates that rising sea level will first affects
regions with large areas of near sea-level land and areas with low tide range, such as
the Mediterranean and North-Western Black Sea. In Italy, for example, it was indicated
an increase of the mean sea level between 1.08 and 1.64 mm/yr.
The Northern Adriatic mean sea level increased by 20 cm during the last 100 years.
This increase induces a retreat of 3-6 meters in 100 years (3-6 cm/yr) for beaches with
a gradient of 2°-4°. The subsidence rate of this territory, about 2-3 mm/yr, which could
be enhanced due to subsurface fluid withdrawal, affects the coastal evolution. The
subsidence on the low coastal beaches of Emilia-Romagna induces a shoreline retreat
as well as an increase of the nearshore gradient, thus determining a reduction of the
sandy coastal body (a subsidence rate of 1,5 to 3 mm/yr induced a lost of 0,6 Mm3/yr of
sand) (Corbau & Simeoni, 2008).
The most threatened coastal wetlands within Eastern Europe are Danube Delta (having
an altitude vs. Sea-level to 15 m), estuaries, beaches, and salt marshes. The Black Sea
coasts, with their extremely low tidal ranges (0.12 cm, practically no tide), will be more
susceptible to sea level rise than the other European coasts, which experience much
higher tidal ranges. In addition, the eutrophication, the “red tides” followed by hypoxia
and mass mortalities, the invasion of some exotic specie, the erosion and the extent of
urban, industrial and agricultural development along the North-Western Black Sea coast
has reduced the resilience and adaptation options for the coastal zone to respond to the
impacts of to climate variability and change.
There has already been considerable subsidence and reduced sediment delivery to
these regions as a result of natural (and human) factors.
Further oriented analysis of population estimates and distributions may provide
additional evidence of such responses by other wetland species.
Rising air and sea temperatures may decrease the incidence of sea ice during winter
and increase the incidence of algal blooms in coastal areas.
Consequences are difficult to predict, but some of them should be mentioned:
• Loss of terrestrial habitats having lowest altitudes (near sea level), e.g. Grindul
Chituc, the narrow belt of sand between littoral lakes and the sea;
• Loss of aquatic habitats, freshwater or brackish water lakes, e.g. Sinoe, Razelm,
Zmeica, Golovita Lakes;
• Loss of biodiversity, especially the relicts forms harbored in the paramarine lakes
(Mollusks from Fam. Adacnidae);
• Loss of some important fisheries in the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve;
• Loss of some touristic beaches. E.g. along the Grindul Chituc littoral belt
5
No.2
Statement
The low Danube River stretch and Danube Delta are thought to be susceptible to
climate change.
Comments
There has already been considerable subsidence and reduced sediment delivery to
these regions as a result of natural (and human) factors.
Research needs
Further oriented analysis of population estimates and distributions may provide
additional evidence of such responses by other wetland species.
Rising air and sea temperatures may decrease the incidence of sea ice during winter
and increase the incidence of algal blooms in coastal areas.
No.3
Statement
Loss of habitats associated with marshes and flooded flats following sea level
rise and flooding after high Danube River waters.
Comments
Shallow freshwater wetlands are already stressed as ecological transition zones
between aquatic and upland terrestrial ecosystems, making them particularly sensitive
to changes in temperature and precipitation.
The main factors influencing the Romanian littoral are:
• sea level rise (0.128 cm/year) (Malciu, 2000);
• decrease in Danube sediment load;
• disruption of sediment transport as a consequence of hydro-technical coastal
works (harbors extension and protection systems);
• tectonic movements.
Conservation Value
The Delta is the meeting point of Palaearctic and Mediterranean biogeographic zones
and represents a unique dynamic wetland ecosystem in Europe (the second largest
delta) containing a rich biodiversity of wetland habitats. The site is internationally
significant for birds, both breeding and migratory, including a number of globallythreatened species. It is also a vitally important buffer system between the
hydrographical basin of the River Danube and the Black Sea.
Within the 'Delta' biosphere reserve (covering some 679,222h a) 18,145 ha are included
in a separate biosphere designation (the core zone covers two-thirds of the area, the
peripheral areas forming the buffer zone) and 43,790 ha in seven nature reserves (two
of which overlap with the biosphere reserve). The 18,145 ha Rosca-Letea was declared
a biosphere reserve in 1979 (the Rosca area has been protected since 1961 and Letea
6
Forest since 1978); the nature reserves are: Rosca-Buhaiova-Hrecisca (15,600 ha but
including part of the biosphere reserve), Perisor-Zatoane-Sacalin (15,400 ha), Istria
(8,000 ha), Periteasca-Leahova-Gura Portitei (3,900 ha), Popina (90 ha), Saraturile
(100 ha) and Hasmacul Mare (700 ha). These existing nature reserves are considered
to be undisturbed zones which are totally protected Botnariuc & Vadineanu,1982;
Botnariuc etal., 1975).
Danube Delta was designated a Wetland of International Importance under the Ramsar
Convention in 1991, inscribed on the World Heritage List in 1991 and internationally
recognized as a Biosphere Reserve under UNESCO's Man and the Biosphere
Programme in 1992.
The loss of marshes and/or terrestrial/aquatic ecotones habitat by 2080 due to sea level
rise alone, estimated at 31-100% for the Mediterranean coast, 84-98% for the Baltic
coast, and 0-17% for the Atlantic coast cannot be assessed for the Danube Delta,
although dome breaks in the littoral sandy belts resulted from active coastal erosion.
The variability mentioned above reflects the range of sea level rise scenarios as well as
uncertainty about coastal wetland responses to sea level rise.
Losses of these habitat types will reduce available habitat for wildlife, including fish and
migratory bird species. The combined pressures of sea level rise, coastal erosion and
coastal development (resulting in "coastal squeeze") could reduce the availability of
dune beach areas, resulting in loss of feeding habitat and causing population declines in
wintering shorebirds.
Recognizing the fact that the biodiversity of water and forest, for instance, are strongly
linked and interdependent, the participants of the European Platform for Biodiversity
Research Strategy meeting concerning “Biodiversity of Freshwater and Forest Science
in support of the Ecosystem Approach" (Sigtuna, Sweden, 11 - 12 June 2001) made
some recommendations on the forest-water ecotones:
•
•
•
•
•
The components of biodiversity in forest and water interact over great distances,
with the result that the ecotone between these ecosystems is often an extensive
area of mutual influence, rather than a narrow strip.
Both forest and water ecosystems are complex and interaction between them
contributes to the complexity and richness of biodiversity in the ecotone. These
ecosystems and zones of interaction are multifunctional and provide a wide
range of services and benefits to society.
While the nature of interactions affecting biodiversity in the forest-water ecotone
may be similar from one part of Europe to another, the relative importance of the
interactions may vary greatly.
Drivers of biodiversity change of particular importance in the ecotone include
carbon sequestration, acid deposition, and ecosystem dynamics, the demand for
energy, water, wood, and food and, in some parts of Europe, flood control,
recreation and urbanisation. Management practices have a key role in the
protection and restoration of biodiversity in this zone.
Riparian zones are dynamic and exhibit disproportionately high biodiversity
relative to their surface area. They play important economic and ecological roles
in flood mitigation and water quality. Riparian zones at the interface of forest and
water act as buffer zones between the two and are affected by the management
practices of both ecosystems.
7
No.4
Statement
Flooded flats following sea level rise and flooding after high Danube River waters,
increase in the surface temperature and extreme episodic events characterizing
global change can affect in a great extent the human health.
Comments
Rising air and sea temperatures may decrease the incidence of sea ice during winter
and increase the incidence of algal blooms in coastal areas.
For example, the relationship between temperature increase and malaria parasite
development time inside mosquito (“extrinsic incubation period” or EIP): EIP shortens at
higher temps, so mosquitoes become infectious sooner; 67% of waterborne disease
outbreaks were preceded by precipitation above the 80th percentile (across a 50 yr.
climate record), p<0.001; 51% of outbreaks were preceded by precipitation above the
90th percentile, p<0.002; Surface water-related outbreaks had strongest correlation with
extreme precipitation in the month of outbreak; groundwater-related outbreaks lagged 2
months following extreme precipitation (Curriero, et al, 2001; Patz, 2008); 88% of
disease burden attributable to climate change afflicts children < age 5 – obviously an
innocent and ‘non-consenting’ segment of the population, is another major axis of
inequity.
HEALTH EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
The World Health Organization already considers global warming as a serious threat to
sustainable public health. (WHO, 1990). Climate change (according to IPCC estimates:
temperature rise - 3°C by yr. 2100, sea level rise - 40 cm by yr. 2100 and hydrologic
extremes) is projected to have adverse impacts on public health. Cobenefits may be
possible from the upstream mitigation of greenhouse gases causing climate change. To
help measure such cobenefits alongside averted disease-specific risks, a health impact
assessment (HIA) framework can more comprehensively serve as a decision support
tool. HIA also considers health equity, clearly part of the climate change problem. New
choices for energy must be made carefully considering such effects as additional
pressure on the world's forests through large-scale expansion of soybean and oil palm
plantations, leading to forest clearing, biodiversity loss and disease emergence,
expulsion of subsistence farmers, and potential increases in food prices and emissions
of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Investigators must consider the full range of policy
options, supported by more comprehensive, flexible, and transparent assessment
methods (Patz et all., 2008).
Potential Negative Health Impacts of Climate Variability and Change:
•
•
•
•
•
Urban Heat Island Effect → Heat Stress, Cardiorespiratory failure
Air Pollution & Aeroallergens → Respiratory diseases, e.g., COPD & Asthma
Vector-borne Diseases → Malaria, Dengue, Encephalitis, Hantavirus, Rift
Valley Fever
Water-borne Diseases → Cholera, Cyclospora, Cryptosporidiosis,
Campylobacter, Leptospirosis
Water resources & food supply → Malnutrition, Diarrhea, Toxic Red Tides
8
•
Mental Health & Environmental Refugees → Forced Migration, Overcrowding,
Infectious diseases, Human Conflicts
Ecotones play a role in a number of the most important emerging infectious diseases
(EIDs). Parallel research on (EIDs) and the causes of increased rates of pathogen
transmission, spread, and adaptation suggests a correspondence between ecotonal
processes and the ecological and evolutionary processes responsible for zoonotic and
vector-borne emerging infections. However, the similar disease ecologies of these with
about half of the approximately 130 zoonotic EIDs suggests ecotones, particularly their
anthropogenic origination or modification, may be generally associated with the global
trend of increasing EIDs (Dickson et al., 2006).
Research needs
Strategies for future research which have to provide valuable information to decision
makers should be include the following priority areas (Naiman et al., 1998; Naiman &
Decamps, 1990):
•
•
•
•
•
•
Study the importance of upland-wetland ecotones in a variety of landscapes
simultaneously.
Characterize the relationship between wetland size, hydrologic characteristics,
and dimensions of the ecotone on the assimilative capacity of the wetland
patches and ecotones.
Use existing management questions to develop a series of experiments that will
test our ability to maintain or enhance the functions of wetland ecotones.
Identify traditional, low-intensity management techniques that have successfully
maintained or enhanced the functions of wetland ecotones in the past.
Utilize existing descriptive and predictive models to identify parameters of
wetland patches and ecotones that need to be better understood.
Establish lateral transects crossing from uplands to wetlands to open water
ecosystems and assess biological diversity in wetland-upland and wetland-open
water ecotones.
The following key issues have high priority for European research, both as
general targets and particularly in mixed forest-water ecosystems (EPBRS
Declarations - Sigtuna, Sweden, 11 - 12 June 2001 http://www.bioplatform.info/decl_sweden.htm ):
a) Inventory, taxonomy and systematics: a primary goal of research in this ecotone
must be to identify, inventory and classify European species that are under threat of
global, regional or local extinction. This research should include the improvement
and harmonisation of the systematics of taxa in this ecotone;
b) Ecosystem functions and interactions: Research is required on the resilience of the
forest-water ecotone and the services provided by the ecosystems that compose it,
up to the catchment scale or bio-geographical region. This research must also clarify
how biological diversity is related to the resilience of this ecotone, and should focus
on how biodiversity and ecosystem services respond to or influence the ecosystem
biology (e.g. dispersal), chemistry (e.g. acidification and eutrophication), physics (e.g.
silting), hydrodynamics and hydrology, and the needs of society (including
sustainable use);
9
c) Modelling the effects of large-scale drivers: There is an urgent need for improved
models of forest-water ecological systems, human activities and landscapes,
including successional development and habitat fragmentation;
d) Management practices: Research is urgently needed to monitor the effect of
management, and where appropriate to improve management practices. This
research should also include the scientific understanding, testing and development
of the CBD ecosystem approach;
e) Biodiversity assessment tools. Research is needed to establish criteria for setting
targets and objectives for management, and to generate standardised protocols to
monitor biodiversity status and trends, and ecosystem dynamics, with a view to
conservation or sustainable use, taking into account human values, economic
benefits, attitudes and aspirations.
These five issues are presented in a sequence that starts with the underpinning or basic
science and ends with research issues that have an immediate relevance to policy.
There is a strong interdependence between these issues, and they are not ordered by
any relative priority.
The major improvements needed in the knowledge base are:
•
•
•
Synthetic models of complex phenomena and complex systems
A classification scheme based on appropriate spatial and temporal scales
Better understanding of ecotonal relationships between surface waters and
groundwater
• Greater comprehension of ecotones as natural systems that can speed the
recovery process of damaged systems
• Mechanisms and processes for efficient managerial implementation of ecotonal
information and improved societal awareness of ecotonal values
Addressing these knowledge gaps can be partly accomplished with existing tools and
techniques. However, there is a huge need to advance quickly in developing new
techniques or in adapting existing methods from other disciplines.
The major tools and techniques needed include:
•
•
•
•
Improved training and use of high speed computers for evaluating connectivity,
variability, and cumulative effects in complex systems
Development of spatial and temporal statistical methods for the quantitative
evaluation of patch and boundary dynamics
Continual development of techniques associated with Geographic Information
Systems (GIS), nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), and remote sensing (SPOT,
Landsat, EOS) that have direct relevance to ecotone identification and processes
Development of long-term demonstration sites that can be used for
interdisciplinary and cross-cultural education at all levels (e.g. societal, scientific,
and managerial)
Many of these needs are being addressed independently by other programs concerned
with the environmental issues in the next decade. A major task will be to adapt the
knowledge, tools, and techniques to an 'ecotonal perspective' in order to provide a solid
10
conceptual and practical framework for improving environmental understanding and the
human condition.
Uncertainties
There is a continuing lack of detailed information about the distribution, extent and use
of wetlands which makes it difficult to predict the impacts of climate change. Lack of
consistent wetland classification exacerbates this problem. In addition, changes in
wetlands are dominated by changes in catchment hydrology which are poorly
understood.
Climate change has certainly already affected some wetlands in Europe and will
continue to do so, also in the Danube Delta. However, lack of regionally-specific
wetland data and regional climate change scenarios, let alone catchment level climate
change scenarios, make it difficult to predict the impacts of climate change on many
wetlands.
Many pressures (e.g. land use change, pollution, abstraction of water for urban or
agricultural use) act on wetlands simultaneously, but often with different time lags: for
example, the run-off changes due to deforestation can be slow compared with those
due to local temperature changes caused by changes in the frequency and intensity of
El Niño-like phenomena. This complexity adds to the problems of considering not only
climate change impacts but the adaptation options as well.
References
BioPlatform, 2001 - European Platform for Biodiversity Recommendations of the
participants of the European Platform for Biodiversity Research Strategy
meeting held under the Swedish residency of the EU in Sigtuna, Sweden,
11 - 12 June 2001 concerning “Biodiversity of Freshwater and Forest
Science
in
support
of
the
Ecosystem
Approach".
http://www.bioplatform.info/objectives.htm
Botnariuc N., & Vadineanu A. , 1982 - Tendinte in evolutia Deltei Dunarii si posibilitati
de protectie. In: Stugren B. (Coordinator) - Probleme Actuale ale Ocrotirii
Naturii. Edit. Dacia, Cluj, Romania.
Botnariuc N., Toniuc N., & Filipascu A., 1975 - Necesitatea infiintarii parcurilor
nationale in Delta Dunarii. Ocrotirera Naturii. Tom 19: 2, Bucuresti.
Corbau Corinne, Simeoni Umberto, 2008 - Impacts of climate changes (sea level rise
and increased number of extreme meteorological events) on sandy coasts.
example of the Emilia-Romagna Region (Northern Italy). International
Seminar on Natural Hazards in the Marine Area 28-29 July 2008, Bucharest,
Romania).
Curriero F.C., Patz J.A., Rose J.B., Lele S., 2001 - Analysis of the association
between extreme precipitation and waterborne disease outbreaks in the
United States, 1948-1994. Am J Public Health 2001 (Aug) 91:1194-99
Dickson D., Brett E., Bruce W., 2006 - The Role of Ecotones in Emerging Infectious
Diseases. EcoHealth, Vol. 3, No. 4: 281-289.
Gibbs Ph., Climate Change and the Fisheries of NSW - a Background Paper for NSW
Department
of
Primary
Industries http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/191522/Cli
mate-hange-and-fisheries---a-background-paper.pdf
11
IPCC, 2007 – Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution
of working Group II to the Third Assessment Report on Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United
Kingdom, 1000pp.
Johnson L., Hayhoe K., Kling G., Magnuson J. and Shuter B., 2003 - Wetland
Ecosystems - Technical Appendix. Report on Confronting Climate Change
in the Great Lakes Region http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/
Malciu V., 2000 - Implications of Accelerated Sea-Level Rise (ASLR) for Romania.
Proceeding of SURVAS Expert Workshop on European Vulnerability and
Adaptation to impacts of Accelerated Sea-Level Rise (ASLR)- Hamburg,
Germany, 19th-21st June 2000.
McCarthy J. James, Canziani F. Osvaldo, Leary A. Neil, Dokken J. David, White S.
Kasey, (Editors), 2003 - Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and
Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. GRID-Arendal
(http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/6
69.htmhttp://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/
wg2/669.htmhttp://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipc
c_tar/wg2/669.htmhttp://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/clim
ate/ipcc_tar/wg2/669.htmOcean)
Naiman R.J., Décamps H ., (Eds). , 1990 – The Ecology and Management of AquaticTerrestrial Ecotones. Man and the Biosphere Series, Volume 4, UNESCO,
Paris: 316 pp.
Naiman R.J., Décamps H ., Fournier F., (Eds). , 1989 - The role of land / inland water
ecotones in landscape management and restoration: a proposal for
collaborative research. M A B Digest 4. Unesco, Paris: 93 pp.
Patz J., 2008 - Global Warming & Health: Great Risks AND Opportunities. Presentation
to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) April 9,
2008 http://www.opas.org.br/ambiente/uploadArq/ev_127_apre_13.pdf
Patz J., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Gibbs. H., Woodruff R., 2008 - Health
Impact Assessment of Global Climate Change: Expanding on Comparative
Risk Assessment Approaches for Policy Making. Annual Review of Public
Health,
April
2008,
Vol.
29:
27-39.
(doi:
10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.020907.090750)
WHO, 1990 - Potential health effects of climate change. Geneva: World Health
Organization.
12