Download 最新财经资讯 第33期 （总第143期） 国际司 2014-3

最 新 财 经 资 讯
第 33 期
（总第 143 期）
国际司
2014-3-7
目
录
一、 全球
1. IMF 公布新兴国家债务市场热潮背后的投资者
2. 极端天气为应对气候变化行动带来一线生机
二、 欧洲
1. 欧央行采取更大胆措施应对低通胀
三、 亚太
1. 缅甸应对本地中小企业松绑
2. 悉尼“亚太证交所”投入交易
3. 中国大陆资金紧张局面蔓延至台湾
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IMF unveils investors behind emerging market debt boom
Reuters|7 March, 2014
Big institutional investors account for 80 percent of the half a trillion
dollars foreigners have plowed into emerging market sovereign debt in the
last few years, according to an analysis by International Monetary Fund
economists.
Investors such as hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds held $768 billion
in emerging market government bonds as of June 2013, the paper showed.
Foreign central banks held at least $40 billion more.
The makeup of a country's investor base is important in gauging whether
investors will stick around when times get tough or run for the exit, pushing
bond yields up and currencies down. Central banks and pension funds are
seen as stable investors, while hedge funds can be changeable.
The paper found about half the foreign holdings of emerging market debt,
worth nearly $500 billion, were accumulated during the three years from
2010, as emerging markets rebounded from the financial crisis more
quickly than developed countries.
Many also regained investment-grade credit ratings, such as Colombia and
Indonesia, burnishing their appeal in the eyes of yield-hungry investors
flush with cheap cash.
"Rising foreign participation in government debt markets can help reduce
borrowing costs and spread risks more broadly among investors, but it can
also raise external funding risks for countries," authors Serkan Arslanalp
and Takahiro Tsuda wrote in a blog post. (IMF data: r.reuters.com/jyj47v)
"The more you know your investors, the better you understand the potential
risks and how to deal with them."
Data prepared for the paper, "Tracking Global Demand for Emerging
Market Sovereign Debt," shows institutional investors held relatively
steady during the second quarter of 2013, when jitters about the U.S.
Federal Reserve starting to unwind stimulus hit financial markets
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worldwide.
Overall, holdings of institutional investors fell less during the second
quarter or 2013 than foreign debt holdings overall, a turnaround from
earlier periods of outflows.
The 24 countries used in the research cover $9 trillion of outstanding
government debt and more than $1 trillion of debt securities held by
foreigners.
Tests of how sensitive countries would be to a cold shoulder from foreign
investors showed Egypt, Lithuania and Poland would likely be among the
first to feel the pinch, followed by Argentina, Hungary, Mexico and
Ukraine.
But countries with lower debt, lower financing needs, strong local banking
systems and good liquidity buffers had a better chance of withstanding a
reversal in investor sentiment, the authors said, pointing to the experience
of Mexico and Poland, which suffered less in the emerging market sell-off
of mid-2013 than many peers.
Although domestic investors own the bulk of outstanding debt in many
countries, foreign institutional investors' share in overall debt holdings rose
by more than a third from 2010 to 2013, the data showed.
The paper, which does not necessarily represent the views of the IMF,
showed institutional investors are a particularly significant presence in Peru,
Uruguay, Mexico, Lithuania and Hungary.
For their part, foreign central bank investments were largely concentrated in
Brazil, China, Indonesia, Poland, Malaysia, Mexico and South Africa.
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Interview: Extreme weather is 'silver lining' for climate action:
Christiana Figueres
Guardian |6 March 2014
Devastating extreme weather including recent flooding in England,
Australia's hottest year on record and the US being hit by a polar vortex
have a "silver lining" of boosting climate change to the highest level of
politics and reminding politicians that climate change is not a partisan issue,
according to the UN's climate chief.
Christiana Figueres said that it was amoral for people to look at climate
change from a politically partisan perspective, because of its impact on
future generations.
The "very strange" weather experienced across the world over the last two
years was a sign "we are [already] experiencing climate change," the
executive secretary of the UN climate secretariat told the Guardian.
The flooding of thousands of homes in England because of the wettest
winter on record has brought climate change to the forefront of political
debate in the UK. The pprime minister, David Cameron, when challenged
by Labour leader, Ed Miliband, on his views on man-made climate change
and having climate change sceptics in his cabinet, said last week: "I believe
man-made climate change is one of the most serious threats that this
country and this world faces."
Climate change was barely mentioned at all in the 2012 US election battle
until superstorm Sandy struck New York, prompting the city's then mayor,
Michael Bloomberg, to endorse Barack Obama's candidacy because he
would "lead on climate change."
Figueres said: "There's no doubt that these events, that I call experiential
evidence of climate change, does raise the issue to the highest political
levels. It's unfortunate that we have to have these weather events, but there
is a silver lining if you wish, that they remind us is solving climate change,
addressing climate change in a timely way, is not a partisan issue."
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She added: "We are reminded that climate change events are for everyone,
they're affecting everyone, they have much, much longer effects than a
political cycle. Frankly, they're intergenerational, so morally we cannot
afford to look at climate change from a partisan perspective."
Figueres said that examples of recent extreme weather around the world
were a sign climate change was here now. "If you take them individually
you can say maybe it's a fluke. The problem is it's not a fluke and you can't
take them individually. What it's doing is giving us a pattern of abnormality
that's becoming the norm. These very strange extreme weather events are
going to continue in their frequency and their severity … It's not that
climate change is going to be here in the future, we are experiencing
climate change."
Figueres was speaking in London before meeting businesses including
Unilever, Lafarge and Royal Dutch Shell to urge them to put pressure on
governments to take action on climate change, ahead of renewed
international negotiations in Bonn next week to flesh out details of a draft
climate treaty to be laid out in Lima this year and agreed in Paris at the end
of 2015.
"2014 is a crucial year because of the timing of next year, [in 2015] there
will be very little time work on the actual agreement. We have to frontload
the work," she said.
Peru's foreign minister told the Guardian in January that the Lima meeting
in December must produce a first draft of a deal to cut carbon emissions,
which will be the first of its kind after efforts to get legally binding
agreement for cuts from most of the world's countries failed at a
blockbuster meeting in Copenhagen in 2009.
Asked if a bad deal was better than no deal next year, she said: "Paris has to
reach a meaningful agreement because, frankly, we are running out of
time."
But she dismissed parallels with the run-up to the Copenhagen summit,
saying the frequency of extreme weather events, lower renewable energy
costs and progress on climate legislation at a national level meant it was
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different this time round.
"I hope that we don't need too many more Sandys or Haiyans or fires in
Australia or floods in the UK to wake us up. My sense is there is already
much momentum. We have 66 governments that have climate legislation,
we have a total of 500 laws around the world on climate, whereas before
Copenhagen we only had 47."
But the grouping of the world's 47 "least developed" countries said this
week that they would want far more money to adapt their economies to
climate change than the $100bn a year that been so far proposed by rich
countries.
"We will want more than the $100bn to agree to a new Paris protocol," said
Quamrul Choudhury, a lead negotiator for the group which includes many
African and Asian countries. "On top of that we will want a legal
mechanism to compensate for 'loss and damage' [compensation for extreme
climate change events]. There should definitely be some space in the [final]
treaty for that," he said in London.
He called on rich countries to compromise. "The battle lines are drawn.
Everyone wants to defend their country and nobody will give an inch, but
everyone has to make some sacrifice or we won't have a deal. We need
high-level political commitment to raise ambition."
Choudhury, who is also Bangladesh's climate envoy to the United Nations,
met British climate negotiators ahead of the Bonn talks. "I am optimistic
that the world can avoid another diplomatic disaster like Copenhagen in
2009. There have been major changes since then. In 2008-09 we knew it
would be very expensive to reduce emissions. Now we know it does not
cost very much. It's not expensive, not a Herculean task. Countries like the
UK know they can reduce emissions by 65% without it costing very much
at all.
"But even if we have an ambitious mitigation target [to cut emissions]
adaptation must be the cornerstone of a new treaty. This is not a zero-sum
game. If we treat it like that there will be no Paris protocol," he said.
Figueres later agreed that the $100m proposed in 2009 as compensation for
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poor countries would not be enough for them to build defences and adapt
their economies. "It was a figure plucked from a hat … $100bn is not
enough [to meet] the mitigation and not at all for the adaptation costs. The
International Energy Agency has suggested it may cost $1 trillion over 25
years just for adaptation. $100bn is a freckle on the map of what needs to
be invested."
A major UN climate science panel report to be published at the end of this
month will spell out the impacts of climate change on humanity and the
natural world. Leaked versions of the report say agricultural production will
decline by up to 2% every decade for the rest of the 21st century.
7
ECB Set to Act Against Low Inflation, Hold Fire on Bolder Steps
Reuters|6 March 2014
The European Central Bank is expected to hold off on cutting interest
rates on Thursday, opting instead to loosen lending conditions to fight off
the danger of debilitating low inflation.
A slight upward surprise in euro zone inflation in February and initial signs
of life in some economies in the region have eased pressure on the ECB to
take radical steps.
Quantitative easing - actually buying assets to drive money into the system
as the U.S Federal Reserve and others have done - is politically far too
difficult.
Imposing negative deposit rates, essentially charging bank depositors, is
also controversial within the euro zone bloc and might not be effective.
But with inflation running in the ECB's "danger zone" below 1 percent - 0.8
percent at last count - the bank is poised to open some money spigots by
ending operations to drain funds from the financial system.
The ECB currently "sterilises" money it puts into the system though bond
purchases by withdrawing other money to offset the effect. Stopping this
would mean more money available for lending.
The step is easier to swallow for the Bundesbank, Germany's conservative
central bank, and meets market expectations for some action by the ECB
signalling its resolve to maintain its accommodative policy stance for an
extended period of time.
"This could be the compromise solution," said Nick Matthews, economist
at Nomura.
"It helps those (at the ECB) who are still unsure about a negative deposit
rate and don't see that there is room to cut the refinancing rate on its own
anymore. So this would be seen as the ECB doing something."
The International Monetary Fund, however, believes the ECB needs to do
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much more.
Reza Moghadam, the head of the IMF's European Department said in a
blog on Wednesday that the ECB should cut interest rates and pump out
more money, perhaps through quantitative easing.
Nonetheless, ending sterilisation is the prime option for ECB policymakers
at Thursday's meeting.
An ECB source predicted there would be unanimous agreement to end it for
bond purchases under the bank's Securities Markets Programme (SMP).
Separately, Draghi's predecessor as ECB president, Jean-Claude Trichet,
told reporters in Abu Dhabi that ending sterilisation is "something which is
certainly possible taking into account the present situation."
2016 PROJECTIONS
The Governing Council will, for the first time, publish staff forecasts
stretching into 2016 when it meets. Draghi described this as "a very
significant change in our analysis" after the bank's Feb. 6 policy meeting.
Draghi has set out two scenarios that could trigger fresh action: a
deterioration in the medium-term inflation outlook and an "unwarranted"
tightening of short-term money markets.
Many analysts predict ending sterilisation is only the start of the ECB's long
battle to fight off deflation risks, with a growing minority of economists
polled by Reuters last week saying the bank may be forced to print money
this year.
Despite insisting that the euro zone is not experiencing deflation, Draghi
warned on Monday that inflation is "way below" the bank's goal and if it
stays so for too long, it will be harder to get it back up to the target.
Looming in the minds of policymakers are fears of a Japan-style deflation,
which became so entrenched companies and households held off on
spending on expectations of lower prices ahead, leading to two decades of
economic stagnation.
Like the Bank of Japan, which meets to set policy next week, the ECB is
running out of room to cut interest rates. Its main refinancing rate is at 0.25
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percent and the deposit rate it pays banks for holding their money overnight
stands at zero, raising a question over how potent a small rate cut would be.
Ending the SMP sterilisation operations would lack the "wow" factor of
such quantitative easing but would show the ECB is being proactive and
delivering on its pledge to keep an accommodative policy stance and take
fresh action if needed.
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Myanmar gov't should cut SMEs some slack
FT|7 March 2014
Making Myanmar a better place to do business -- for both local and foreign
investors -- is a central plank of the government's economic reform agenda.
With that in mind, the country has introduced new investment laws,
dropped its overvalued "official" exchange rate, and revised rules and
regulations in trade and finance. The government is engaging with the
World Bank, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
and other multilateral organizations to improve Myanmar's investment
climate.
While the drive for foreign investment dominates the headlines, reforms are
also intended to encourage local businesses, especially small and medium
enterprises. SMEs account for over 99% of Myanmar's nearly 127,000
registered enterprises, although they account for a much smaller share of
the country's gross domestic product. Yet, a new study suggests there has
been little progress on cutting red tape. Among the most serious challenges
facing Myanmar's SMEs are high barriers to entry, corruption, poor
government services, and the overlapping and unclear authority of different
parts of government.
If Myanmar is serious about helping SMEs, it must focus on implementing
practical solutions to streamline the business environment.
SMEs have a tough time in Myanmar. But for small family shops, fruit
stands, sidewalk restaurants and the like, dealing with government is less of
a challenge. They rarely engage with bureaucracy except for an annual trip
to the tax office and a monthly visit by municipal employees to collect fees.
Tiny firms do not make much money and cannot afford to pay much, so
government officials mostly leave them alone.
The bigger a business gets in Myanmar, the more it must deal with
government. That is not to say that doing business is hardest for bigger
companies. They have the relationships and resources required to get things
done. Often it is most difficult for SMEs -- they are too big to go unnoticed
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but too small to have the resources and connections that help smooth the
way.
Just getting started
One of the biggest challenges for business in Myanmar is simply getting
started, according to the study. The licensing system is hopelessly complex.
Ministries grant licenses for businesses operating in their sector, while most
microenterprises are licensed by municipalities. National government
licenses often require recommendation letters, from local police, health and
fire officials; local and township administrators; and state and national
ministries. The costs of obtaining these, in terms of both time and money,
are immense. In a few sectors, informal restrictions prevent entrepreneurs
from getting a license at all. According to the World Bank's 2014 "Doing
Business" report, Myanmar is the most difficult country in the world in
which to obtain a corporate operating license. These barriers deter
entrepreneurs from sectors where licensing is difficult, and push them into
less productive sectors such as small shops and restaurants.
Corruption is still common in Myanmar, especially among local
government officials who interact with SMEs. Civil servants are poorly
paid and have few incentives to refuse bribes: A college-educated staff
officer makes about $150 a month, plus benefits. Penalties for corruption
are enforced rarely and arbitrarily. Poorly designed laws also create
loopholes that incentivize corruption. For example, businesses with an open
tax file cannot renew their operating license, so tax officers keep these files
open to encourage bribery.
Government services are generally poor, the legacy of decades of military
misrule and corruption. Poor services prompt businesses to pay "tea
money" to move things along. Another problem is the lack of accountability.
Businesses rarely complain when their trash is not collected or their
electricity fails, believing it wouldn't help. Then there are capacity issues:
Government employees lack both the technology and the human capital to
improve efficiency. Poor-quality public services are especially problematic
for SMEs -- it is easier for a large factory to buy a cost-effective generator
than it is for a small shop.
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In addition, there is considerable overlap and uncertainty about authority in
Myanmar. Recent reforms have created new governments at the state/region
level, and a range of local committees. These hold great potential to
improve government-business interactions. But it is still unclear how these
new structures fit with existing parts of government, leading to confusion
about where real authority lies. Officials are often reluctant to act until all
authorities agree. The result is that, instead of different parts of government
having different responsibilities, every part of government plays a role in
everything.
Dealing with government is still a challenge for Myanmar's SMEs. If
governments worked to simplify their complex licensing, de-incentivize
corruption, improve services, and clarify the roles and responsibilities of
different parts of government, the dividends for SMEs would be immense.
Of course, there is strong institutional momentum after 50 years of socialist
and military rule, so these changes will not happen overnight. However,
reforming business governance is essential for the business environment
that Myanmar's SMEs need to survive and thrive during the country's
transition.
Jared Bissinger is a Yangon-based development economist and consultant,
and author of "Subnational Governments and Business in Myanmar," a
study conducted with the Asia Foundation and Myanmar Development
Resource Institute -- Center for Economic and Social Development.
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悉尼“亚太证交所”投入交易
FT 中文网|2014 年 3 月 7 日
澳大利亚首家特别瞄准中资企业上市的证券交易所昨日开始交
易，为两家中国内地企业筹集了 800 万澳元，并对其他想要摆脱沪深
股市上市审批延迟影响的企业展开推销攻势。
总部位于悉尼的亚太证券交易所(APX)表示，利用澳大利亚和亚太
地区之间不断增加的商业联系和资本流动，它预计今年将为多达 10 家
企业提供上市服务。亚太证交所的目标是吸引渴望扩张进入西方市场
的中国及亚洲企业，以及渴望在亚洲扩大投资者基础的澳大利亚企业。
亚太证交所业务开发总监 Joseph Law 表示：
“在中国，想要上市的
企业面临上市时间延迟和排队，而我们能提供的优势之一就是不用排
队。澳大利亚的监管体系一流，这能带给投资者信心。”
在去年之前，中国曾是全球仅次于美国的重要首次公开发行(IPO)
地。咨询机构安永(EY)提供的数据显示，在 2012 年前 11 个月，深沪
两市新上市股票总共筹得 164 亿美元。
然而，在 2012 年 11 月，因为担心大量新股发行可能消耗流动性、
并在市场投资回报率不高的情况下打击市场情绪，中国内地监管当局
叫停了 IPO 市场。
中国市场监管机构在今年 1 月重启了 IPO 市场，但手续繁琐和等
候时间过长的问题依然存在。
亚太证交所首席运营官戴维•劳伦斯(David Lawrence)表示：
“我们
的愿景是成为一家活跃的市场，能够让澳大利亚和中国两地的投资者
用澳元和人民币两种货币进行直接投资。
”该证交所还力求在未来让投
资者能够用人民币交易并结算。
在亚太证交所上市的头两家公司分别是经营保健品的澳大利亚生
命力控股集团(Australia Samly Holdings Limited)和物流企业中环运控
股集团有限公司(ZhongHuanYun Holdings Group Limited)。澳大利亚生
命力首发价为每股 1 澳元，收于每股 1.2 澳元，中环运首发价 0.76 澳
元，收于 0.9 澳元。
亚太证交所的母公司是宝泽金融集团(AIMS Financial Group)，该集
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团主席兼首席执行官王人庆(George Wang)是一名澳大利亚华商。亚太
证交所的规模远远不及澳大利亚证券交易所(ASX)，后者是澳大利亚的
主要证交所，有逾 2100 家公司在那里上市。亚太证交所还面临新加坡
和其他海外交易所的竞争。
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中国大陆资金紧张局面蔓延至台湾
WSJ 中文网|2014 年 3 月 7 日
中国公司正在转向台湾的商业银行寻求低成本资金，这推动台湾
的借贷成本飙升至三年来最高水平。在亚洲的银行中，台湾商业银行
长期以来一直资金充裕。
这也从另一个侧面证明了中国对风险借贷的打压导致企业竞相争
夺资金，并且资金紧张状况已经蔓延到大陆以外。对于台湾商业银行
而言，它们相对较高的贷款成本不利于与台湾的外资银行展开竞争。
3 个月期台北银行间美元拆借利率(Taifx)与伦敦银行间拆借利率的
利差目前已经飙升至大约 1.3 个百分点的水平，为 2011 年以来的最高
水平。该利差是一项备受关注的融资成本指标，去年 12 月份还处在大
约 0.7 个百分点的水平。
法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)台北分行总经理张建西(Godwin
Chang)称，来自中国的贷款需求是主要推动因素。
台湾最近的融资成本上涨始于去年 12 月份，当时中国银行间市场
出现了 2013 年的第三次钱荒。虽然中国大陆那次政策主导的钱荒局面
已经有所缓解，但国内的借贷成本依旧高企，并且银行也在减少放贷
规模。
另外，对于一家国内太阳能企业周五可能无法支付债券利息的担
忧也加剧了围绕中国金融系统的紧张情绪。如果这家企业无法支付利
息，则中国庞大的公司债市场将首次出现违约事件。
2013 年全年，台湾商业银行的外币贷款规模迅速增长。分析师称，
这些贷款主要是针对中国大陆的美元贷款。这种贷款通常是由一个银
团共同提供并承担风险。1 月份，台湾对大陆贷款达到创纪录的新台币
1 万亿元（约合 3.3 亿美元）
。
举例来说，去年 10 月份，河南能源公司中国天伦燃气控股有限公
司(China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd., 1600.HK)从三家台湾银行组成的
银团贷款 7,800 万美元。该公司发言人称，之所以从台湾银行贷款，是
因为贷款成本低于大陆银行。
台湾央行的数据显示，截至去年 9 月 30 日，台湾商业银行对中国
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大陆的风险敞口为 510 亿美元，在所有债权中占比最高。这些风险敞
口包括贷款和投资两项。
联昌国际证券(CIMB Securities)驻台湾的银行业分析师 Nora Hou
说，大陆的信贷紧缩已迫使那里的借贷者向海外寻求资金。她还称，
这推高了台湾的融资成本。
当然，其中一些需求源自台湾企业为自己在大陆的业务寻找资金。
台湾是全球最大的电子产品出口地之一，而大陆是台湾最大的贸易伙
伴，因此台湾经济严重依赖大陆。台湾的数据显示，台湾出口的商品
有近 30%销往大陆。
台湾的银行虽然与国际同行相比规模较小，但在亚洲银行业排名
居前，主要因为台湾的高储蓄率令本地银行资金充足。汤森路透
(Thomson Reuters LPC)的数据显示，2013 年兆丰国际商业银行(Mega
International Commercial Bank)和台湾银行(Bank Of Taiwan)都位列亚洲
银行的前 30 名。这两家银行都未就本文内容置评。
不过，台湾的一些银行正准备从信贷市场抽身，以提高其本已受
压的利润。
中国信托金融控股股份有限公司(CTBC Financial Holding Co., 简
称：中信金)的发言人表示，融资成本上升意味着中信金将减少对银团
贷款提议的评估；虽然贷款仍在增加，但增速已远低于去年同期水平。
分析师们也表示，台湾的银行需要开始逐步为信贷业务降温。
穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody's Investors Service Inc.)分析师 Ginger
Kao 称，预计台湾的银行将选择维持利润率，而不是追求贷款规模的高
增长。Kao 说，大陆的借贷者需要从其他地方寻找成本较低的贷款。
台湾的银行众多，但赢利能力却是亚洲最低水平之一。原因是台
湾人口只有 2,300 万，目前却有近 40 家本地银行和 30 家外资银行在此
激烈竞争，从而导致台湾银行业利润率微薄。
搜集：综合处
整理：王少凡
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