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Download 3 Professor Christos ZEREFOS Parousiasi
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“The environmental, economic and social impacts of climate change in Greece” Christos Zerefos Winter (DJF) averaged-mean Mediterranean temperature anomalies (with respect to 1961-1990) from 1500 to 2002. (Luterbacher et. al., 2006) N A O in d e x 4 2 0 -2 Changes in Rainy Season Precipitation during 20th century and its relationship with North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOi) -4 1600 (OCT-APR) PRECIPITATION (mm) 1400 1200 W . Greece 1000 800 r = -0.38 ( >99% conf. level) 600 E.G r e e c e r = -0.21 ( 95% conf. level) 400 200 600 r = -0.19 ( 90% conf. level) E.A e g e a n 400 200 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Emissions scenarios Temporal Evolution of CO2 Concentration under different emission scenarios Emission Scenarios Storyline SRES Economic Growth Energy Consumption Energy Sources Global Population Growth CO2 Concentration in 2100 SRES Α2 Moderate Very High Emphasis on FossilFuels Rapid and continuously increasing 850 ppm SRES Α1Β Rapid Very High Balanced emphasis on all energy sources Rising up to 9 billion in 2050 and then declining 720 ppm SRES Β2 Moderate Moderate Balanced emphasis on all energy sources Continuously increasing Slower rate than in SRES A2 620 ppm SRES Β1 Rapid Low Renewable Energy sources Rising up to 9 billion in 2050 and then declining 550 ppm Greek Climatic Zones WCM: West-Central Macedonia EMT: Eastern Macedonia/Thrace WG: West Greece CEG: Central-Eastern Greece ATT: Attica WP: West Peloponnese EP: Eastern Peloponnese I: Ionian ΝΑ: North Aegean ΕΑ: East Aegean CY: Cyclades C: Crete D: Dodecanese Climate At the end of 21st century, due to anthropogenic activity: • precipitation will reduce between 5% and 19% for the territory • air temperature will increase between 3,0 ºC and 4,5 ºC • relative humidity will decrease between 1% to 4% • intensity of annual winds will increase by 10% • cloud cover will decrease between 8% and 14% • mean incident solar radiation will increase between 2,3 W/m2 και 4,5 W/m2 Mean Air Temperature SRES A1B: Mean Air Temperature Change between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990 • • • • SRES A1B: Mean Air Temperature Change between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 Mean Air Temperature Change between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 SRES B2 SRES A1B SRES A2 • te se es ce ad nne Cre ree cl a G y k C de Do an 2021-2050, SRES A1B : Over Greece Mean annual air Temperature increase by 1.4 oC. 2071-2100: Over Greece Mean annual air Temperature increase by 2.8 oC (SRES B2) up to 3.9 oC (SRES A2) Temperature increase is more significant during summer and autumn than during winter and spring. Temperature increase is more prominent over land. Precipitation SRES SRES A1B: Mean Annual Precipitation Percentage Change B2 Between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990 • SRES A1B SRES A2 • e e a an an des ese rete ece an es es t ic ni ege ege e n a C At onn onn Io cl an Gr A A p p t Cy dek h s t lo lo r a e e E Do No t P rn P e st a E SRES A1B: Mean Annual Precipitation Percentage Change Between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 2021-2050, SRES A1B: Over Greece Mean annual Precipitation is predicted to decrease by 6.5%. 2071-2100: Over Greece Mean annual Precipitation is predicted to decrease by 5% (SRES B2) and by 18% (SRES A1B, SRES A2) Mean Annual Precipitation Percentage Change Between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 Relative Humidity SRES A1B: Percentage Change of Mean annual Relative Humidity between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990 • • • SRES A1B: Percentage Change of Mean annual Relative Humidity between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 2021-2050, SRES A1B: Over Continental Greece Mean annual Relative Humidity is predicted to decrease by 2%. 2071-2100: Over Continental Greece Mean annual Relative Humidity is predicted to decrease for 2.5% up to 4% (SRES B2) and for 6% up to 10% (SRES A2) Relative Humidity decrease is predicted to be more significant for summer season. Percentage Change of Mean annual Relative Humidity between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 Wind Speed SRES A1B: Mean annual Wind Speed Percentage Change between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990 • • • SRES A1B: Mean annual Wind Speed Percentage Change between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 For Greece as a whole mean annual Wind Speed will be not change during 21th century 2071-2100: Mean annual Wind Speed is predicted to increase up to 5% over Aegean and on the contrary is predicted to decrease up to 5% over Ionian During summer Etesian Winds will be increase significantly up to 10% Mean annual Wind Speed Percentage Change between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 Cloud Fractional Cover SRES A1B: Mean annual Cloud Cover Percentage Change between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990 • • 2021-2050, SRES A1B: Over Greece Mean annual Cloud fractional Cover is predicted to be reduced by 6% 2071-2100: Mean annual Cloud fractional Cover is predicted to be reduced by 8% (SRES B2) by 12% (SRES A1B) by 14% (SRES A2) SRES A1B: Mean annual Cloud Cover Percentage Change between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 Mean annual Cloud Cover Percentage Change between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 Cloud Fractional Cover Percentage Change(%) 0 -2 -4 SRE B2 -6 -8 SRE A1B -10 -12 -14 -16 -18 e a e e e s e e e e a n n n ni et ac ec ttic nes nes nia gea gea ade nes ec ec l Cr Gre do Thr Gre Gre o n e n n e A I c e a o o / A A y k t t ac nia n C op lop de es rth Eas er el e o lM W ast Do No ra ced t P rn P t s E e le en Ma W ast tra n t-C E en es ster C W Ea SRE A2 Downward Short Wave Surface Radiation SRES A1B: Mean Annual Downward Sort Wave Surface Radiation Change between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990 • • • SRES A1B: Mean Annual Downward Sort Wave Surface Radiation Change between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 2021-2050, SRES A1B: Mean Annual Downward Sort Wave Surface Radiation increase by 1,3 W/m2. 2071-2100: Mean Annual Downward Sort Wave Surface Radiation increase by 3,1 W/m2 (SRES B2) by 4,1 W/m2 (SRES A2) The increase is more prominent over land, especially in western and northern parts Mean Annual Downward Sort Wave Surface Radiation Change between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 Climate Changes are also expected on • • • • extreme precipitation values flood periods duration of dry periods number of days with a highly increased risk of fire Precipitation deficit as drought potential indication (number of events for the period 1904-1995) Maximum duration of dry season Increase of maximum duration of dry season in Eastern Continental Greece and Northern Crete 2021-2050 μείον 1961-1990 • by 20 additional days in 20212050 • by 40 additional days in 20712100 2071-2100 μείον 1961-1990 Lower increases in westerm and northern Greece up to 20 days in 2071-2100 Forest fire distribution on European level (1997-2003) Number of days with highly increased forest fire risk Increase in the number of days with highly increased forest fire risk in eastern Greece 2021-2050 minus 1961-1990 • 20 days in 2021-2050 • 40 days in 2071-2100 Lower increases in western Greece due to wetter climate 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990 Water Resources Total losses for the economy of Greece: •0,34% of GDP for the A1B Emissions Scenario with discount rate 3% •1,69% of GDP for the A2 Emissions Scenario with discount rate 1% Important potential for adaptation actions Sea Level Rise and Consequences in Coastal Areas • €4.4bn for a sea level rise of 0.5m • €8bn for a sea level rise of 1m Fishing Industry Losses for Greek economy: €14.8m to €2.5m depending on •Emissions Scenario •Discount rate 1% to 3%) Economic cost of the reduction of biodiversity: €287m to €1,896m Agriculture •Loss of agricultural land: • 19% by 2040-2050 • 38% by 2090-2100 •Warm-friendly cultivations: +20% Cold-friendly cultivations: -20% •Positive impact in northern and western Greece •No impact in Central Greece •Negative impact in southern Greece and islands including Crete Negative effects most pronounced near the end of the 21st century Forestry and Forest Ecosystems •Fire fighting expenses will rise by €40m (Β2) to €80m (Α2) •Direct consecuences: •Losses of €1.4bn (Β2) with discount rate 3% •Losses of €9.5bn (Α2) with discount rate 1% Biodiversity and Ecosystems •€1.14m to €240.83m for forest ecosystems •€15.59m to €172.1m for the lakes Cheimaditida and Kerkini The total economic consequences could not be estimated The estimated consequences may be considered as the lower limit of the total Tourism Tourism climate index • • • Winter and spring: Improvment Autumn: Great improvment Summer: Significant worsening Crete: Rise in the mean annual income Dodekanese: Reduction in the mean annual income Building environment Cost for nulifying the energy consumption of the building sector by 2050 •Additional cost due to climate change: 9.6% •Ranges from 7.6% to 10.3% in the different areas •Additional cost estimated to €20-21bn Transportation •Cost for the infrastructure maintenance €594,8m/year to €195m/year depending on the GHG emissions •Cost of delays in service due to climate change (extreme events, overheating of infrastructure etc.): €28bn to €9.3bn Public Health •Increase in mortality in Europe: 1% to 4% •Mortality due to extreme temperatures, in Attica, in 2091-2100: 1620 deaths per year •Economical cost for Attica: €95m per year •Mortality increase in Ahens: 2260 to 1455 deaths per year •Economical cost for Athens: €85m to €135m Cost of No-Action Scenario •Annual GDP reduction in 2050: 2% Annual GDP reduction in 2100: 6% •Accumulated cost to 2100: €701bn (values of 2008) •The accumulated cost to 2100 equals to three times the GDB of Greece Similar results have been reached for the whole Earth Cost of Mitigation Scenario •Cost of GHG emissions reduction: €142bn •Cost of residual climate change •Accumulated cost of Mitigation Scenario to 2100: €436bn •€265bn less (-40%) than No-Action Scenario Discount rate was concidered zero Cost of Adaptation Scenario Sum of •Cost of adaptation measures •Cost of damages due to climate change Accumulated cost of Adaptation Scenario to 2100: €578bn Links • http://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/el/klima/default.aspx • http://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/el/klima/results.aspx