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Coastal urbanisation in a
changing climate
The Victorian Coastal Forum 2009
Barbara Norman
Global Cities Research Institute RMIT University
United Nations
United Nations Environment Program
UN Habitat
2 key reports:
State of the Worlds Cities 2008/9
Harmonious cities
Urban World: Climate change
Urbanisation
State of the Worlds Cities 2006/7:UN Habitat
‘understanding the complex social, cultural and
economic dynamics of cities and urbanisation is
more important now than ever before if we strive
to attain internationally agreed development goals’
Source: McGranahan, G., D. Balk, and B. Anderson.
"The Rising Tide: Assessing the Risks of Climate Change and Human Settlements in Low
Elevation Coastal Zones."
Environment and urbanisation 19(1).
New mega cities
‘growth and more urban growth’
Kinshasa
Lagos
Jakarta
Guangzhou, Guangdong
Lahore
Shenzhen
Chennai
(State of the Worlds Cities 2006/7)
Photos: wikepedia
UN Habitat estimates
40% of the worlds population lives less than
60 miles from the coast
100 million people live less than one metre
above mean sea level
Harmonious urban growth has to go hand in
hand with disaster mitigation and
vulnerability reduction
(Anna Tibaijuka Exec Director UN Habitat
March 2009, Urban World)
The Australian Coast
36,000 kilometers long
86% of the population lives in the
coastal zone
Increasing coastal urbanisation
Impacts of climate change - flooding,
storm surge, subsidence, disasters
Coastal Urbanisation
2006 State of the Environment Report
Figure 13: Projected changes in population density by Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation for Australia (IBRA) region.
Units are persons per square kilometre. Data are derived through simple difference between 1997 and 2006 ABS projections.
IBRA version 5 used
Source: Gurran, N presentation to Darwin Coast to Coast 2008
State of the Environment Victoria 2008
Recommendations
CES1.2 Develop strong and consistent indicators of
coastal urbanisation to measure the impact of coastal
development pressures on the coastal and marine
environment.
CES1.3 Strengthen strategic and statutory tools for
managing urban growth on the coast.
CES1.5 Develop indicators to monitor the impacts of
urbanisation on the coastal and marine environment.
Develop a program for ongoing monitoring of key coastal
processes, ensuring that knowledge is utilised to inform
coastal management decisions.
Coastal development in Queensland
Belongil Beach - NSW Far North Coast (Source: ABC Radio National Website)
Collaroy Beach Erosion - Sydney Nth Beaches
(Source: ABC Radio National Website)
Figure 6. Actual tide above the predicted tide at Fremantle, 15-16 May,
2003, showing the impact of a storm surge during a cool season westerly
storm (Data courtesy of the Department of Planning and Infrastructure,
Western Australia).
Lakes Entrance photo by David Tatnall March 2009
Barbara in Venice, November 2008
Department of Sustainability and Environment Vic
International
EU green paper: Adapting to climate change in
Europe - options for EU action
National spatial plans
National spatial plans for climate change adaptation
Coastal economic evaluation (EEA 2007)
$1.5 billionUS/annum -EU with Adaptation
$18 billionUS/annum- EU with no Adaptation
12 fold difference
Lessons from New Orleans
National interest
Commonwealth lands
Major installations and infrastructure
Coordinator of States/Territories
Safety and well being of coastal
communities
Contribution to innovation to our region
Current
reports
A Framework for a National Cooperative
Approach to Integrated Coastal Zone
Management (2006)
Parliamentary Inquiry into climate change and
the environmental impacts on Australian
coastal communities (2008)
Coastal vulnerability case studies
Coastal urbanisation and
climate change
Strategies
metropolitan and regional plans
State land use plans
Processes
Assessment processes, criteria, triggers
Environmental impact processes
Management
Interdisciplinary connections
Land use planners, emergency management
officers, infrastructure providers, natural resource
managers
Possible planning responses within Australia
Impact of climate change - environmental impact
assessment for coastal projects- State and national
Community education and community resilience
Report from the Insurance Council of Australia
Learn from fire and flood experience
Challenge of the infrastructure providers
Infrastructure Australia Fund
Infrastructure 21 report
Requires stronger connections between urban
planners, natural resource managers, emergency
services and infrastructure providers.
Research priorities
National Climate Change Adaptation Research
Plans and Networks
Terrestrial Biodiversity
Human Health
Marine Biodiversity & Resources
Water Resources & Freshwater Biodiversity
Settlements and Infrastructure
Social, Economic & Institutional Dimensions
Emergency Management
Primary Industries
(http://www.nccarf.edu.au/)
Four illusions of ICM
Raphael Bille
1. The Illusion that round table discussions
can solve any problem;
2. The coastal manager myth
3. The community illusion
4. The positivist illusion
i.e. more knowledge brings better management
Raphael Bille ‘Integrated CoastalZone Management: four
entrenched illusions S.A.P.I.E.N.S 2008 (online (Jan 2009)
Conclusions
The challenge of rapid coastal urbanisation and
climate change requires a more comprehensive
response
Interdisciplinary and collaborative approach required
Urban and regional planning, natural resource management,
economic instruments, infrastructure provision, and disaster
and emergency management services
The precautionary principle, climate change
adaptation and risk management will need to be
considered in designing our future cities and
settlements
We are planning for cumulative impact and risk!
James Lovelock
‘we can talk of carbon footprints, of
renewable energy and of sustainable
development;we can try to save energy and
hold grand conferences around the world, but
are these, however well meant, any more
than the posturing of tribal animals bravely
wielding symbols against the menace of an
eluctable force they do not understand?’
The Vanishing Face of Gaia: p152