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Coastal urbanisation in a changing climate The Victorian Coastal Forum 2009 Barbara Norman Global Cities Research Institute RMIT University United Nations United Nations Environment Program UN Habitat 2 key reports: State of the Worlds Cities 2008/9 Harmonious cities Urban World: Climate change Urbanisation State of the Worlds Cities 2006/7:UN Habitat ‘understanding the complex social, cultural and economic dynamics of cities and urbanisation is more important now than ever before if we strive to attain internationally agreed development goals’ Source: McGranahan, G., D. Balk, and B. Anderson. "The Rising Tide: Assessing the Risks of Climate Change and Human Settlements in Low Elevation Coastal Zones." Environment and urbanisation 19(1). New mega cities ‘growth and more urban growth’ Kinshasa Lagos Jakarta Guangzhou, Guangdong Lahore Shenzhen Chennai (State of the Worlds Cities 2006/7) Photos: wikepedia UN Habitat estimates 40% of the worlds population lives less than 60 miles from the coast 100 million people live less than one metre above mean sea level Harmonious urban growth has to go hand in hand with disaster mitigation and vulnerability reduction (Anna Tibaijuka Exec Director UN Habitat March 2009, Urban World) The Australian Coast 36,000 kilometers long 86% of the population lives in the coastal zone Increasing coastal urbanisation Impacts of climate change - flooding, storm surge, subsidence, disasters Coastal Urbanisation 2006 State of the Environment Report Figure 13: Projected changes in population density by Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation for Australia (IBRA) region. Units are persons per square kilometre. Data are derived through simple difference between 1997 and 2006 ABS projections. IBRA version 5 used Source: Gurran, N presentation to Darwin Coast to Coast 2008 State of the Environment Victoria 2008 Recommendations CES1.2 Develop strong and consistent indicators of coastal urbanisation to measure the impact of coastal development pressures on the coastal and marine environment. CES1.3 Strengthen strategic and statutory tools for managing urban growth on the coast. CES1.5 Develop indicators to monitor the impacts of urbanisation on the coastal and marine environment. Develop a program for ongoing monitoring of key coastal processes, ensuring that knowledge is utilised to inform coastal management decisions. Coastal development in Queensland Belongil Beach - NSW Far North Coast (Source: ABC Radio National Website) Collaroy Beach Erosion - Sydney Nth Beaches (Source: ABC Radio National Website) Figure 6. Actual tide above the predicted tide at Fremantle, 15-16 May, 2003, showing the impact of a storm surge during a cool season westerly storm (Data courtesy of the Department of Planning and Infrastructure, Western Australia). Lakes Entrance photo by David Tatnall March 2009 Barbara in Venice, November 2008 Department of Sustainability and Environment Vic International EU green paper: Adapting to climate change in Europe - options for EU action National spatial plans National spatial plans for climate change adaptation Coastal economic evaluation (EEA 2007) $1.5 billionUS/annum -EU with Adaptation $18 billionUS/annum- EU with no Adaptation 12 fold difference Lessons from New Orleans National interest Commonwealth lands Major installations and infrastructure Coordinator of States/Territories Safety and well being of coastal communities Contribution to innovation to our region Current reports A Framework for a National Cooperative Approach to Integrated Coastal Zone Management (2006) Parliamentary Inquiry into climate change and the environmental impacts on Australian coastal communities (2008) Coastal vulnerability case studies Coastal urbanisation and climate change Strategies metropolitan and regional plans State land use plans Processes Assessment processes, criteria, triggers Environmental impact processes Management Interdisciplinary connections Land use planners, emergency management officers, infrastructure providers, natural resource managers Possible planning responses within Australia Impact of climate change - environmental impact assessment for coastal projects- State and national Community education and community resilience Report from the Insurance Council of Australia Learn from fire and flood experience Challenge of the infrastructure providers Infrastructure Australia Fund Infrastructure 21 report Requires stronger connections between urban planners, natural resource managers, emergency services and infrastructure providers. Research priorities National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plans and Networks Terrestrial Biodiversity Human Health Marine Biodiversity & Resources Water Resources & Freshwater Biodiversity Settlements and Infrastructure Social, Economic & Institutional Dimensions Emergency Management Primary Industries (http://www.nccarf.edu.au/) Four illusions of ICM Raphael Bille 1. The Illusion that round table discussions can solve any problem; 2. The coastal manager myth 3. The community illusion 4. The positivist illusion i.e. more knowledge brings better management Raphael Bille ‘Integrated CoastalZone Management: four entrenched illusions S.A.P.I.E.N.S 2008 (online (Jan 2009) Conclusions The challenge of rapid coastal urbanisation and climate change requires a more comprehensive response Interdisciplinary and collaborative approach required Urban and regional planning, natural resource management, economic instruments, infrastructure provision, and disaster and emergency management services The precautionary principle, climate change adaptation and risk management will need to be considered in designing our future cities and settlements We are planning for cumulative impact and risk! James Lovelock ‘we can talk of carbon footprints, of renewable energy and of sustainable development;we can try to save energy and hold grand conferences around the world, but are these, however well meant, any more than the posturing of tribal animals bravely wielding symbols against the menace of an eluctable force they do not understand?’ The Vanishing Face of Gaia: p152