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INDUSTRY TREND BULLETIN: CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY Background on the Trend The “Forecasting the Future” report explains that climate change is “already affecting water utilities and will continue to do so in the future.” Water resources and water infrastructure are threatened by increased extreme weather events and natural disasters, rising sea levels, and stress on water-related eco-system services. In addition to infrastructure concerns, the policies and regulations created in response to greenhouse gas concentration will likely impact utility management (Brueck et al. 2012). Adaptation is a central theme in industry publications surrounding the effects of climate uncertainty on utilities. The Environmental Protection Agency recently created the “Adoption Strategies Guide for Water Utilities” (2013) in order to address this trend through proactive adaption planning and assessment. They suggest a foundation based on “identifying projected impacts and challenges associated with climate change, assessing risks from these impacts based on current thresholds for failure or damage, selecting and implementing adaption options, and then revisiting assessments when new information is available or when additional capacity to implement options is in place”(USEPA 2013). The Water Research Foundation’s “Opportunities for Managing Climate Change by Applying Adaptive Management” report investigates how water utilities can apply adaptive management in order to meet unpredictable challenges. The report emphasizes decision-making that is flexible and based on continually updated information rather than adherence to strict goals and notions. In this type of management, commitment to constant learning is crucial to planning for the unpredictable effects of climate uncertainty (Conrad et al. 2013). A pending Water Research Foundation project, “Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Management Tools for Climate Change: Assessing Potential Impacts and Identifying Adaption Options” is exploring utility case studies in order to better understand climate risks to water utilities and develop a quantitative risk assessment and management framework that uses “probabilistic assessment and robust decision-making methods.” Water Research Foundation’s definition of adaptive management: Adaptive management is an iterative process for improving and revisiting management policies and practices by learning through monitoring and from outcomes of rigorously designed investigations. It explicitly recognizes uncertainty and utilizes flexible decision making to promote resilient systems (Conrad et al, WaterRF 4380). 1 ©2013 Water Research Foundation. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. This report, along with many other resources and information regarding climate change and water utilities is hosted on the Water Research Foundation’s Climate Change Clearinghouse (http://www.theclimatechangeclearinghouse.org). Figure 1 Perceived impact of “climate uncertainty” trends in the recent past Source: WaterRF #4506 Pre-forum survey (n=21) As Figure 1 shows, the group as a whole viewed climate uncertainty as having a moderately negative impact over the last five years. For the utilities represented at the forum, climate uncertainty meant many different things. For some, more intense rainfall and flooding is a major concern while for others it is planning for drier climates and warmer temperatures. Most recognized the need for and challenge of planning for both, or at least for change from historical climate patterns. Communication was also an anticipated area of concern. With disparate views about the issue, some utilities expressed difficulty in moving forward with any sort of strategy. 2 ©2013 Water Research Foundation. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Leading Strategies from the Field The problems associated with this trend (precipitation, temperature, drought, sea-level rise, and flooding) cause more potential risk as they become more extreme, more unpredictable, and impact infrastructure investment decisions. Solutions and strategies can vary by geographic location and many utilities face associated regulatory impacts. In small group discussion, utility managers discussed possible strategies for dealing with this unpredictable trend (Figure 2). Figure 2 Strategies considered very effective or effective to meet climate uncertainty challenges Source: WaterRF #4506 Pre-forum survey (n=21) Planning and Evaluation Learning about the macro and micro impacts was suggested in order to plan for extremes. Scenario planning was seen as vital to preparing for future challenges, with the strategy of such practices as intensified monitoring and just in time capital investments. It was also added that climate change should be a variable in planning new infrastructure, facility protection (dealing with stranded assets), and land use and zoning. Emergency response has also proven to be critical during short term weather events. Partnerships and Redundancy Partnerships with scientists, universities, and research can be a tool to incite beneficial dialogue. Mutual aid agreements were suggested to be helpful in softening the impact in the aftermath of extreme weather events. It was also suggested that insurance companies are a potential ally and could offset some risk (financial intervention). In consideration of droughts, administrators suggested diversification of supply portfolio and water storage 3 ©2013 Water Research Foundation. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. alternatives during extreme events. Political and collaboration-driven strategies were suggested, such as creating inter-agency partnerships that would cooperatively manage water banking, water sharing, efficient water allocations, inter basin and cross utility transfers in times of drought, joint conservation plans, shortage plans, early conservation plans, and recycled water. In the same vein, they noted that political will and community involvement must be involved along with drivers of innovation. Many of the adaptation/mitigation strategies designed to address the availability and adequacy of water resources have significant overlap with climate uncertainty strategies. The pre-forum survey revealed that one utility is starting to look at groundwater and brackish water for the first time. Another is aware of the need for more storage including utilization of below ground storage.. Capital Planning and Infrastructure In terms of increasingly intense storms, participants noted that risk is higher and listed increased capacity, pump stations, and increased capital investment can be employed to reduce risk. Green infrastructure was also mentioned, not as a major solution, but as a tool that can help “mitigate at the margin” and help meet complementary objectives. Projections for the Future Any sort of uncertainty challenges a utility’s assessment of risk; and climate uncertainty is an extreme case of this. These risks will likely drive financial and management decisionmaking across the industry. One administrator felt strongly about “defining the rate the sea level will rise” while another noted “patterns of extreme weather creates uncertainty and is difficult to plan for.” For most, utility policies and plans related to climate uncertainty were changing. One utility even stated that one of its goals in terms of climate uncertainty is to “define the most significant risks to facilities” and address those proactively. Demand seems to be a related uncertainty with participants stating there is “uncertainty of future demand” and wondering how to predict “water demand under a warmer climate.” Ultimately, the more that can be learned and refined over time will better inform what and how a climate change response strategy can be fashioned. But even before this, utilities communicated a need to garner public support for the strategies they may need to employ to address the extremes of climate change. (A Water Research Foundation report - #4381 scheduled to be published in 2014 - will produce a guidance document to assist water utilities in communicating about climate change, with an emphasis on building support for water utility climate-related adaptation or mitigation investments or projects.) Regardless, few utilities predicted that climate uncertainty will have a positive impact in the forthcoming years as shown in Figure 3. The chart shows that half of the participants were at least moderately concerned and a quarter expected a severe impact. 4 ©2013 Water Research Foundation. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Figure 3 Utility projections for impact of climate uncertainty on future utility operations and finance Source: WaterRF #4506 Pre-forum survey (n=21) 5 ©2013 Water Research Foundation. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Strategies Introduced and Ranked in Pre-Forum Survey Ranking Very Effective Effective Somewhat Effective Climate Uncertainty Strategies Long term control plan to mitigate CSO Increase backup power generation and redundant supply. Conservation and reuse implementation Partnerships with other agencies Back-up stand-alone power Drought response plan Evaluated reservoir safe yield Has allowed us to accelerate the messaging of conservation and sustainability All at risk infrastructure had been identified prior to Sandy. Emergency operation procedures in place. Water quality maintained during the event Hardening coastal facilities to protect from flooding Improve training in start-up and exercising of backup power supply. Long-range water supply planning - evaluation of groundwater use and other sources Wastewater treatment plants- elevations have been reviewed. / Full treatment was restored in short order. Elevating facilities Improve early warning, coordination with local officials, and emergency response preparedness/ procedures. Modeling potential sea level rise impacts (flooding and salt intrusion) Expand and "harden" remote monitoring and control systems. Massive permanent conservation plan Constructing of a new intake structure at lowest lake elevation possible cost nearly $1 billion Develop a regional (multi-state) drought plan and an interstate banking effort Annually develop both a normal condition and drought condition 50 year resource plan Diversify resource portfolio with banked groundwater supplies and new groundwater supplies We changed our design criteria to meet effects of 2010 flood Working to develop more local water resources that are not as dependent on climate or weather driven factors (e.g. recycled water) Included climate change as a factor in long-term projections for water supply capacity Proactive planning to avert catastrophic failures of pumping systems in extreme drought. Build adaptation into new facilities 6 ©2013 Water Research Foundation. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Ranking Neither Effective Nor Ineffective Somewhat Ineffective Climate Uncertainty Strategies Relocating critical assets Emergency operations plan (for natural disasters) Evaluated impact of sea level rise on coastal facilities Worked with neighboring community to provide water during extreme flood event. Research on use of real-time control systems/ methods to mitigate flooding. Participating with other stakeholders Planning for more storage facilities Continue mitigation efforts Seeking alternative water supply connections Attempted to coordinate with Corps of Engineers and with other resource stakeholders to prioritize uses REFERENCES Brueck, T., D. O’Berry, L. Blankenship, and P. Brink. 2012. Forecasting the Future: Progress, Change, and Predictions for the Water Sector (WaterRF #4232). Denver, Colo.: Water Research Foundation. Conrad, S.A., E. Olson, R. Raucher, and J. Smith. 2013. Opportunities for Managing Climate Change by Applying Adaptive Management (WaterRF #4380). Denver, Colo.: Water Research Foundation. USEPA (United States Environmental Protection Agency). 2013. Adaption Strategies Guide for Water Utilities. Washington D.C.: USEPA. 7 ©2013 Water Research Foundation. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.