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INDUSTRY TREND BULLETIN:
CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY
Background on the Trend
The “Forecasting the Future” report explains that climate change is “already affecting
water utilities and will continue to do so in the future.” Water resources and water infrastructure
are threatened by increased extreme weather events and natural disasters, rising sea levels, and
stress on water-related eco-system services. In addition to infrastructure concerns, the policies
and regulations created in response to greenhouse gas concentration will likely impact utility
management (Brueck et al. 2012).
Adaptation is a central theme in industry publications surrounding the effects of climate
uncertainty on utilities. The Environmental Protection Agency recently created the “Adoption
Strategies Guide for Water Utilities” (2013) in order to address this trend through proactive
adaption planning and assessment. They suggest a foundation based on “identifying projected
impacts and challenges associated with climate change, assessing risks from these impacts based
on current thresholds for failure or damage, selecting and implementing adaption options, and
then revisiting assessments when new information is available or when additional capacity to
implement options is in place”(USEPA 2013).
The Water Research Foundation’s “Opportunities for Managing Climate Change by
Applying Adaptive Management” report investigates how water utilities can apply adaptive
management in order to meet unpredictable challenges. The report emphasizes decision-making
that is flexible and based on continually updated information rather than adherence to strict goals
and notions. In this type of management, commitment to constant learning is crucial to planning
for the unpredictable effects of climate uncertainty (Conrad et al. 2013). A pending Water
Research Foundation project, “Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Management Tools for
Climate Change: Assessing Potential Impacts and Identifying Adaption Options” is exploring
utility case studies in order to better understand climate risks to water utilities and develop a
quantitative risk assessment and management framework that uses “probabilistic assessment and
robust decision-making methods.”
Water Research Foundation’s definition of adaptive management: Adaptive
management is an iterative process for improving and revisiting management
policies and practices by learning through monitoring and from outcomes of
rigorously designed investigations. It explicitly recognizes uncertainty and utilizes
flexible decision making to promote resilient systems (Conrad et al, WaterRF 4380).
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This report, along with many other resources and information regarding climate change
and water utilities is hosted on the Water Research Foundation’s Climate Change Clearinghouse
(http://www.theclimatechangeclearinghouse.org).
Figure 1 Perceived impact of “climate uncertainty” trends in the recent past
Source: WaterRF #4506 Pre-forum survey (n=21)
As Figure 1 shows, the group as a whole viewed climate uncertainty as having a
moderately negative impact over the last five years. For the utilities represented at the forum,
climate uncertainty meant many different things. For some, more intense rainfall and flooding is
a major concern while for others it is planning for drier climates and warmer temperatures. Most
recognized the need for and challenge of planning for both, or at least for change from historical
climate patterns. Communication was also an anticipated area of concern. With disparate views
about the issue, some utilities expressed difficulty in moving forward with any sort of strategy.
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Leading Strategies from the Field
The problems associated with this trend (precipitation, temperature, drought, sea-level
rise, and flooding) cause more potential risk as they become more extreme, more unpredictable,
and impact infrastructure investment decisions. Solutions and strategies can vary by geographic
location and many utilities face associated regulatory impacts. In small group discussion, utility
managers discussed possible strategies for dealing with this unpredictable trend (Figure 2).
Figure 2 Strategies considered very effective or effective to meet climate uncertainty
challenges
Source: WaterRF #4506 Pre-forum survey (n=21)

Planning and Evaluation
Learning about the macro and micro impacts was suggested in order to plan for extremes.
Scenario planning was seen as vital to preparing for future challenges, with the strategy
of such practices as intensified monitoring and just in time capital investments. It was
also added that climate change should be a variable in planning new infrastructure,
facility protection (dealing with stranded assets), and land use and zoning. Emergency
response has also proven to be critical during short term weather events.

Partnerships and Redundancy
Partnerships with scientists, universities, and research can be a tool to incite beneficial
dialogue. Mutual aid agreements were suggested to be helpful in softening the impact in
the aftermath of extreme weather events. It was also suggested that insurance companies
are a potential ally and could offset some risk (financial intervention). In consideration of
droughts, administrators suggested diversification of supply portfolio and water storage
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alternatives during extreme events. Political and collaboration-driven strategies were
suggested, such as creating inter-agency partnerships that would cooperatively manage
water banking, water sharing, efficient water allocations, inter basin and cross utility
transfers in times of drought, joint conservation plans, shortage plans, early conservation
plans, and recycled water. In the same vein, they noted that political will and community
involvement must be involved along with drivers of innovation.
Many of the adaptation/mitigation strategies designed to address the availability and
adequacy of water resources have significant overlap with climate uncertainty strategies.
The pre-forum survey revealed that one utility is starting to look at groundwater and
brackish water for the first time. Another is aware of the need for more storage including
utilization of below ground storage..

Capital Planning and Infrastructure
In terms of increasingly intense storms, participants noted that risk is higher and listed
increased capacity, pump stations, and increased capital investment can be employed to
reduce risk. Green infrastructure was also mentioned, not as a major solution, but as a
tool that can help “mitigate at the margin” and help meet complementary objectives.
Projections for the Future
Any sort of uncertainty challenges a utility’s assessment of risk; and climate uncertainty
is an extreme case of this. These risks will likely drive financial and management decisionmaking across the industry. One administrator felt strongly about “defining the rate the sea level
will rise” while another noted “patterns of extreme weather creates uncertainty and is difficult to
plan for.” For most, utility policies and plans related to climate uncertainty were changing. One
utility even stated that one of its goals in terms of climate uncertainty is to “define the most
significant risks to facilities” and address those proactively. Demand seems to be a related
uncertainty with participants stating there is “uncertainty of future demand” and wondering how
to predict “water demand under a warmer climate.”
Ultimately, the more that can be learned and refined over time will better inform what
and how a climate change response strategy can be fashioned. But even before this, utilities
communicated a need to garner public support for the strategies they may need to employ to
address the extremes of climate change. (A Water Research Foundation report - #4381 scheduled
to be published in 2014 - will produce a guidance document to assist water utilities in
communicating about climate change, with an emphasis on building support for water utility
climate-related adaptation or mitigation investments or projects.) Regardless, few utilities
predicted that climate uncertainty will have a positive impact in the forthcoming years as shown
in Figure 3. The chart shows that half of the participants were at least moderately concerned and
a quarter expected a severe impact.
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Figure 3 Utility projections for impact of climate uncertainty on future utility operations
and finance
Source: WaterRF #4506 Pre-forum survey (n=21)
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Strategies Introduced and Ranked in Pre-Forum Survey
Ranking
Very Effective
Effective
Somewhat
Effective
Climate Uncertainty Strategies
Long term control plan to mitigate CSO
Increase backup power generation and redundant supply.
Conservation and reuse implementation
Partnerships with other agencies
Back-up stand-alone power
Drought response plan
Evaluated reservoir safe yield
Has allowed us to accelerate the messaging of conservation and
sustainability
All at risk infrastructure had been identified prior to Sandy. Emergency
operation procedures in place. Water quality maintained during the event
Hardening coastal facilities to protect from flooding
Improve training in start-up and exercising of backup power supply.
Long-range water supply planning - evaluation of groundwater use and other
sources
Wastewater treatment plants- elevations have been reviewed. / Full
treatment was restored in short order.
Elevating facilities
Improve early warning, coordination with local officials, and emergency
response preparedness/ procedures.
Modeling potential sea level rise impacts (flooding and salt intrusion)
Expand and "harden" remote monitoring and control systems.
Massive permanent conservation plan
Constructing of a new intake structure at lowest lake elevation possible cost nearly $1 billion
Develop a regional (multi-state) drought plan and an interstate banking
effort
Annually develop both a normal condition and drought condition 50 year
resource plan
Diversify resource portfolio with banked groundwater supplies and new
groundwater supplies
We changed our design criteria to meet effects of 2010 flood
Working to develop more local water resources that are not as dependent on
climate or weather driven factors (e.g. recycled water)
Included climate change as a factor in long-term projections for water supply
capacity
Proactive planning to avert catastrophic failures of pumping systems in
extreme drought.
Build adaptation into new facilities
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Ranking
Neither
Effective Nor
Ineffective
Somewhat
Ineffective
Climate Uncertainty Strategies
Relocating critical assets
Emergency operations plan (for natural disasters)
Evaluated impact of sea level rise on coastal facilities
Worked with neighboring community to provide water during extreme flood
event.
Research on use of real-time control systems/ methods to mitigate flooding.
Participating with other stakeholders
Planning for more storage facilities
Continue mitigation efforts
Seeking alternative water supply connections
Attempted to coordinate with Corps of Engineers and with other resource
stakeholders to prioritize uses
REFERENCES
Brueck, T., D. O’Berry, L. Blankenship, and P. Brink. 2012. Forecasting the Future: Progress,
Change, and Predictions for the Water Sector (WaterRF #4232). Denver, Colo.: Water
Research Foundation.
Conrad, S.A., E. Olson, R. Raucher, and J. Smith. 2013. Opportunities for Managing Climate
Change by Applying Adaptive Management (WaterRF #4380). Denver, Colo.: Water
Research Foundation.
USEPA (United States Environmental Protection Agency). 2013. Adaption Strategies Guide for
Water Utilities. Washington D.C.: USEPA.
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©2013 Water Research Foundation. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.