Download NFU`s work on climate change

Cotswold AONB
Paul Cottington MSc, MIEEMSW NFU Environment Adviser
01392 440700 [email protected]
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Letting off gas
in a small world
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
It’s an udder shock
The Daily Star 22nd October 2008
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Outline of presentation
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Setting the scene for the debate
The predictions for Climate Change from UKCP09
A quick look at agricultures contribution
What are farmers facing now and in 20yrs time?
What are farmers doing now and what will they be doing in 20yrs
time?
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Aim for 2050
•80% reduction
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Agriculture Aim for 2020
•11% reduction
• Eng only or equiv of 3 mt CO2e
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
How do farmers see things?
• 60% of farmers think climate change is impacting their farm now
• 60% of farmers believe their growing season is lengthening
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
NFU’s position on climate change
• Adaptation by agriculture is needed as we are already committed to
some degree of climate change
• We believe that the UK farmers can continue to supply food and fuel for
a growing global population whilst helping the natural environment and
society to adjust to climate change
• Agriculture is also part of the solution to climate change. A 'green
energy revolution' will be needed to meet the Climate Change Act
targets and the NFU wants farming to be a major part of it
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
NFU’s work on climate change
• Farm Energy Service
• NFU Energy Service
• Farming Futures
Factsheets, signposting, guidance etc
• Climate Change Task Force
• Collaboration between AIC, CLA and NFU
• Ambitions on areas such as AD
• Member advice and guidance
• Promotion of opportunities
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GHG Action Plan
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
For rainfall we could see significant summer decreases
(dates represent decades and changes are against a 1961-1990 average)
2020
-7%
Reduced stream
flow and water
quality
2040
Increased drought
-13%
Subsidence
2080
Decreased crop
yields
-23%
Serious water stress
South West England
central estimate
Medium emissions
For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than -49% and very unlikely to be higher
than +6%
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For rainfall we see significant winter increases
(dates represent decades and changes are against a 1961-1990 average)
2020
+7%
2040
Increased winter
flooding
Increased subsidence
+14%
Risks to urban
drainage
2080
Severe Transport
disruption
+23%
South West
central estimate
Medium Emissions
Risks of national
Infrastructure
For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than +6% and very unlikely to be
higher than +54%
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For summer average temperature, we see significant increases over
the decades to the 2080s
(dates represent decades and changes are against a 1961-1990 average)
Increased Tourism
Increased Heat stress
Infrastructure risks
Risks to biodiversity
Heat related deaths
Risk to Food Security
But the temperature on the hottest
day of the year could increase by
up to 10ºC
South-West England
central estimate
Medium emissions
The change for the 2080s is very unlikely to be less than 2.1ºC and very unlikely to be more
than 6.4ºC
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UK ag emissions
• Agricultural production contributes 7% of the UK’s greenhouse gas
emissions:
< 1% of carbon dioxide (CO2)
~ 1/3rd of methane (CH4)
~ 2/3rds of nitrous oxide (N2O)
Energy
industries
Manufacturing
and construction
Transport
Transport
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
How does UK ag compare?
Ireland
27%
EU-15
9%
US
6%
NZ
50%
Australia
16%
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Sources
of GHGs
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Livestock and climate change
Mitigation
Methane
• Methane emissions reduced by 22%
since 1990 in England
• From enteric fermentation through
dietary change, rumen manipulation
• From manure through better management (oxygen supply/covers) or
use manure in an anaerobic digester for renewable energy generation
– potentially very important in the future
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
What could Cotswold farming be like?
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More mixed farming?
Will we still be farming grass?
What can our soils offer?
More energy crops?
Higher yields but more likely to have extreme weather?
Less livestock? Is this CC or general trend and market?
More cooperation?
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
What are farmers facing in NOW in terms of
climate change?
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Extreme weather events
Changing growing seasons
Uncertainty over possible effects
Keeping animals in for longer
Increased pressure to change practices to meet societal needs
but with no real market to pay for the benefits.
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
What are farmer facing in 2029 in terms of
climate change?
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Extreme weather events
Changed growing seasons
Likely to have new of pests and diseases – complicated picture
Problems with sourcing water
Higher energy costs and continued volatility
Increased regulatory burden
Increased pressure to deliver more from a finite amount of land
Food security
Energy etc
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
What are farmers doing - Now?
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Moving to new farming systems - min till
Soil protection reviews
Looking at new diets for livestock - defaunating
Covering yards to minimise runoff
Putting in bore holes
Using carbon tools like CALM – Energy efficiency
Solar panels for water heating - dairy
AD systems
Not changing crops
Miscanthus and SRC
Rainwater harvesting
Vaccinating against diseases - e.g. bluetongue
Reducing the amount of N, P, K
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
What are farmers doing - 2029?
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All of the NOW stuff
Nutrient management plans
New crops and varieties have been introduced
New breeds have been introduced
Battling new diseases
Going off grid
Exporting excess energy
AD, biofuels, biomass, geothermal, solar, wind, micro-hydro
Improved flood defence for the farms and society
Better water management - Increased use of irrigation
Selling in new markets e.g. Water quality, Energy production, Carbon
sequestering
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
And what are we asking of government and
NGOs?
• How does the farmer get paid for delivering public goods e.g.
carbon sequestering etc?
• How important is food security not just in rhetoric but in action?
• Recognise that agriculture is part of the solution in delivering the
renewables agenda.
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
John Maynard Keynes
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Thank you
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Risks (?) to our farming systems
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members