Download Africa and Arctic

Global Warming Case Studies – Africa and the Artic
The Arctic
Effects of global warming on Inuit (Canada) communities
Short
Term
(next
decade)
Economic
 Less fish so strain on fishing industry
 More income for tourists – 30% from sculptures and print-making, as they
now have access for tourist boats.
 Oil / energy companies – access to Arctic mineral / oil resources as ice melts.
 Travel / shipping TNCs – transport routes (North- west passage)
Long
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Can import good more easily and it will be less costly
Threat of Russian nuclear waste
Climate change in the Arctic will impact heavily on the indigenous people
such as Inuit Inupiaq’s economy and the Gwich’in tribes in northern Alaska.
The Inupiaq’s economy is based on hunting seals, whales and walruses, is
threatened by the melting of sea ice.
The Gwich’in people depend almost entirely on the annual migration of the
caribou. Any changes to the migration pattern caused by climate change will
destroy a way of life and culture that has existed for millennia
70% of income comes from hunting, global warming would ruin the economy
if the environment completely changed
May have to import food to deal with food shortages which are very
expensive, Baffin Island has 450 residents who eat 100 tonnes of seal meat
annually to import the same amount would cost over US$1 million
Consequences of possible oil spills by oil tankers use of passage from Alaska
Social
 Disrupts lifestyle of 155 000 people, which are adapted to cold and
predictable climate.
 More dangerous to fish on the ice, as the ice is thinner and more likely to
collapse making it dangerous
 Ice protected coastal towns, they are now exposed to more waves and
storms, leading to destruction of homes and migration of residents
 24 villages in Inuit threatened by flooding
 Faster travelling times to Europe
 May lead to food shortages, or put pressure on other supplies as 90% of
food comes from seal, caribou, narwhal, fish and walrus.
 Nutrition is needed to deal with the cold, imported food would not provide
as much calcium, iron, and magnesium
 80% of Inuit people rely on hunting caribou, fish and marine mammals, all
of which are declining
 Range of opportunities including agriculture, tourism, mineral rights,
specific economic or lifestyle benefits e.g. lower heating costs
Effect on rest of planet
Changes in Arctic can influence the global climate in 3 major mechanisms:
1. The amount of sun’s energy reflected back to space decreases as snow and ice melt, leading to a more intense surface warming.
2. The melting of the Arctic ice and increased regional precipitation can add fresh water to the Oceans and potentially affect Ocean currents in the North Atlantic.
3. As warming progresses more greenhouse gases could be released into the atmosphere by the thawing of the permafrost. However warming can increase biological
growth and thus absorption of CO2.
 By 2100 melting of Arctic Glaciers alone will have contributed to sea level rising by roughly 5cm out of the projected 10-90cm total rise for this century. Melting of
Greenland ice sheet can increase this number significantly.
 Access to Artic resources is likely to be affected by climate change, including wildlife, such as whales, seals, birds and fish sold on world markets as well as oil, gas
and mineral reserves.
 Artic ecosystems will have an impact on a global scale, notably by affecting migratory spices, summer breeding and feeding grounds.
Ecological and Environmental Impacts
Short
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decade)
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Long
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Warmer water has reduced marine plants affecting whole food chain
Shorter hunting season for polar bears, reduction to ability to feed cubs and they are susceptible able to disease.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "warming in the Arctic, as indicated by daily maximum and minimum temperatures, has been
as great as in any other part of the world." The period of 1995-2005 was the warmest decade in the Arctic since at least the 17th century, with temperatures
2 °C (above the 1951-1990 average). Some regions within the Arctic have warmed even more rapidly, with Alaska and western Canada's temperature rising
by 3 to 4 °C.
Spread of foreign species affects ecosystems. Warmer conditions will see invasive species (insects and pathogens) such as the spruce bark beetle spreading
plant diseases and, as the forest advances migrant birds lose their summer wetland breeding grounds.
50-60% of Artic ice will be gone by 2100 if current rates continue
Tundra ecosystems replaced by those more suited to the warmer environment and extinction of many species such as the polar bear. Many native species,
intolerant to warmer conditions, will become extinct. As the treeline advances northwards the tundra habitat will shrink and give way to coniferous forest.
By the end of the century up to 90% of Alaska’s tundra may disappear.
The replacement of Arctic vegetation with more forests will lead to higher primary productivity and increased carbon dioxide uptake, but increased methane
emissions could counterbalance this positive impact.
Increased coastal erosion as permafrost will weaken the coast and as there will be more waves and storm surges as the protection of sea ice is lost
Tree line will move north to higher altitudes.
The Arctic Ocean will likely be free of summer sea ice before the year 2100, but many different dates have been projected. A 2013 study showed that simply
extending summertime ice melting trends into the future in a straight line predicts an ice-free summertime Arctic as early as by 2020.
Africa
Socio- Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Africa
Short
Term
(Next
decade)
Economic
 African economies reliant on agriculture and any adverse impact on this will
have major consequences (especially on debt reduction).
 There is already a reduction in length of growing season
 African countries have debt to be repaid, effect of global warming on main
income earning product will mean pressure is put on the economy as debt
payments may not be afforded. (Above all, the burden of unpayable debt
means that no money is available for the mitigation and adaptation strategies
needed to deal with climate change)
 Has limited ability to respond to changing climate because of level of poverty.
 Pressure on more marginal land, which will result in land degradation and
desertification and hence increased poverty.
 However in some areas such as West Africa e.g. Nigeria, there will be an
increase in rainfall which means that there could be a benefit in terms of
increased agricultural production.
 Recent floods and drought have reduced GDP in Ethiopia by one-third and
Kenya by 10-16%
 There is an unjust trading system that forces many countries to sell their
exports at a low price
 Pastoralists could loses their animals
 A 2°C temperature rise will drop 20 to 30 % water availability in southern
Africa. The South African soft fruit industry has suffered a 1°C temperature
rise in the last 30 years
Social
 Poverty will increase if major source of income (agriculture is affected) –
leading to famine and malnutrition. E.g. In 2011 famine hit part of
Somalia, Kenya, Djibouti, Ethiopia and Uganda. UNICEF claimed that
tens of thousands of people died and that 3.7 million required
humanitarian aid. In the worst hit areas malnutrition affected up to half
of the population.
 Drought will mean communities may need to relocate (Demand
outstrips supply of water for 25% of Africans as it is).
 Reliance on poor quality water (and thus increase diseases puts strain
on healthcare system).
 More conflict within society due to water rights and shortages (and
global migration and famine).
 More frequent droughts and food shortages will increase the prevalence
of diseases such as malaria, cholera and dengue fever. The debilitating
effects of these diseases on the working population and the money the
government will need to spend on fighting disease will greatly hinder
progress towards development.
 Population will move out of areas where there is a lack of water
(although poverty means that they may not have the means to do this).
World Bank specialists estimated that approximately 7 million people
migrated - driven by food scarcity - out of the 80 million semi-starving in
sub-Saharan Africa due to environmental factors, and this is only to be
aggravated in the future due to global warming)
 The westerly storm bringing winter rainfall in the Cape region is
expected to move south, missing the continent and losing their water
out to sea. Drought has impacted Cape's wheat production in the last
years, and this trend has just begun. Future water scarcity paradoxically - will increase water demand for human consumption,
further cutting water amounts for an increasingly necessitated
agriculture.
 50 % of all malnutrition-related deaths (4 million annually worldwide)
occur in Africa, while a 2°C rise in temperature will increase the people
affected by hunger, potentially by 30 to 200 million worldwide.
 Conflict and violence triggered by scarce resources and famine will likely
bring West Africa to socio-political instability. Even prosperous regions
like the Cape will be touched, as millions of people will be displaced by
drought and water shortages in the poorer areas.
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Long
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Africa is the continent that will suffer most under climate change.
Temperature rise will trigger "sharp declines in crop yield in tropical
regions", estimated at 5 to 10 % in Africa with an associated increase in
undernourishment, malnutrition, malaria and related deaths.
Will need to consider other ways of creating wealth which is not as reliant
on agriculture.
May need to change type of crops grown (some may not have the money to
do this).
Countries will affected differently and different governments will be able to
implement different adaptation strategies. Countries such as South Africa
(GDP per capita US$7525) and Botswana (GDP per capita US$7020) will be
able to cope far more than the Democratic Republic of Congo (GDP per
capita US$231) or Madagascar (GDP per capita US$451)
There are major impacts on food supply (as farming is water fed and
vulnerable to rainfall shortages). Predicted that crop yields could fall by
16% by 2080. Farmers only just survive so may not have sufficient to feed
themselves.
Tourism-one of Africa's most promising and fastest-growing industries
(about 15% per year)-is based on wildlife and water supply for recreation.
Recurrent droughts in the past decade have depleted wildlife resources
significantly. Permanent loss of such attractions would waste vast amounts
of investment in tourism. The greatest impacts would occur in droughtprone areas of the Sahel, east Africa, and southern Africa.
In southern and eastern Africa, there is a variety of water-based tourist
activities-such as sailing, skiing, angling, rafting... Such activities could be
affected by changes in river flows and the impacts of land use (especially
agriculture) on water quality-such as eutrophication, which gives rise to
objectionable blue-green algae and a proliferation of aquatic weeds (such
as Eichhornia and Salvinia). These developments will compromise the
aesthetic value of tourist destinations.
However, in some locations there could be more tourists such as South Africa
as temperatures will rise there.
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South Africa, one of the more stable African economies, will likely see a
significant rise of the emigrant number from other African countries.
See more famine and human suffering.
By 2050, between 350 million and 600 million people are projected to
experience increased water stress due to climate change
Environmental impacts
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Makes least contribution to global warming but is the most vulnerable (as dependent on climate sensitive resources such as water and ecosystems).
Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and change because of multiple existing stresses and low adaptive capacity. Existing stresses
include poverty, political conflicts, and ecosystem degradation.
As the greenhouse effect acts within a lag system, the sun's energy stored today will take 20 to 30 years to redistribute throughout the system, thus what we see
today is due to atmosphere contamination before we were born. At the current level of contamination, the global average temperatures will likely rise by as much as
5°C. This will affect by 5 to 20 % global living standards, thus developed nations will also be impacted, not only Africa's poor countries.
Change in rainfall and temperature
 Changing rainfall – 14 African countries already suffer from water scarcity (11 more expected by 2032. Unfortunately impact of shortage is in those that already suffer
from lack of rain.
 Rainfall likely to increase in the equatorial region but decrease to the north and south of that band. There will therefore be a shift in the ITCZ.
 Rain not falling in same seasonal pattern, making it difficult to plan the food cycle.
 Africa’s temperature as a whole continent has increased by 0.5 degrees since 1990. Inland areas are worse as they have seen double global increase.
Related to industries such as agriculture and tourism
 More pressure on land where crops can be grown (and these may erode the soil if not allowed to rest).
 Forests have been cleared to grow cash crops. Land now vulnerable to soil erosion especially as weather becoming more extreme due to global warming.
 Overgrazing will lead to desertification.
 Tourist attractions such as Victoria Falls could become much less attractive as a result of reduced river discharge and alteration of the rainforest.
 The destruction of coastal infrastructure, sandy beaches and barriers, and marine ecosystems would have negative impacts on tourism in these areas effect could be
exacerbated by disturbances in the pattern of human settlements in coastal zones and the general loss of environmental values.
 Low-lying farming
 areas may inundated by the sea, e.g. parts of Nile delta, which would mean the loss of farmland due to salinization
 60% of Africans live in coastal zones (especially in West Africa), which may be at risk from coastal erosion and flooding (sea level rise). This will lead to a loss of much
of the continent’s infrastructure of roads, buildings and bridges will affect economic development of the continent.
Effect on ecosystems
 Ecosystems will be affected – increased soil erosion and desertification. Sahel region is likely to see reductions.
More hazards
 Higher temperatures and drought will cause more powerful wildfires in Africa, during the summer on Cape and during the winter on savannah zones.
 More storms and cyclones can impact on coastal aquaculture; e.g. Madagascan prawns
 Toward the end of the 21st century, projected sea level rise will likely affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations
 More Cyclones and floods