* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download pub02_GulfEcosystem_met_climate
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Future sea level wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup
Years of Living Dangerously wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Geological oceanography of the Arabian Gulf 41 Meteorology and climate R.M. Reynolds Brookhaven National Laboratory, Building No 318, Upton L.I., NY 11973, U.S.A. [email protected] Keywords: Persian Gulf, Arabian shamal Introduction In a discussion of the meteorology of the Gulf region, the northern Gulf, the southern Gulf, and the Gulf of Oman need to be considered as distinct regions because they differ in their areal extent, surrounding topography, and synoptic scale forcing (Fig. 1). We define the northern Gulf by a line from the tip of Qatar northeast to Iran. Winds in the northern Gulf are controlled by the interaction of the large-scale pressure fields and the local mountain ranges that steer the winds into an along-axis direction, primarily northerly. The Gulf of Oman is broad and deep (240 x 450 km, and from 200 m to typically 4000 m deep at the Arabian Sea) and the climate in the Gulf of Oman is markedly different than that of the Gulf (Hastenrath and Greischar, 1991). While the Gulf is affected mainly by the extra-tropical weather systems from the northwest, the Gulf of Oman is at the northern edge of the tropical weather systems in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean, where a monsoon circulation produces southerly winds in the summer and strong northerlies in the winter. The Strait of Hormuz approximates a boundary between the two systems and even in the southern Gulf winds can be considered a transition between the northern Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Because the Gulf is so shallow, winds have a pronounced effect on the water circulation and mixing processes. This is especially true in the northern Gulf, above Qatar, which is quite shallow and subject to strong winds from the north. The winds produce wind-driven circulations that can dominate any water currents due to density differences or tidal asymmetry. Further, wind-generated waves can reach the bottom and effect sediment transport and resuspension. Any oil slicks or other forms of surface pollutants are particularly influenced by winds both by direct wind forcing and by the surface currents the winds produce. In the Gulf of Oman winds produce large scale circulations in the surface waters The Gulf Ecosystem: Health and Sustainability, pp. 41–51 Edited by N.Y. Khan, M. Munawar and A.R.G. Price Ecovision World Monograph Series © 2002 Backhuys Publishers, Leiden, The Netherlands muna_gulf_fin1.p65 41 2/20/02, 10:45 AM 42 muna_gulf_fin1.p65 R.M. Reynolds 42 2/20/02, 10:45 AM Meteorology and climate 43 and upwelling along the southern coast of Iran and the eastern coast of Oman. The upwelling regions are fertile and produce a good fishing industry (Brock et al., 1992; Brink et al., 1998; Arnone et al., 1998). In this chapter the present-day and past climate of the Gulf area is examined from the point of view of how meteorology drives the oceanography of the region. Results of major studies from the work of Schott (1918), to recent expeditions and numerical models are represented. Current theories of climate trends and some popular catastrophic possibilities are discussed in terms of their effects on the Gulf region. Current meteorological climate The Gulf region is located on the North-Temperate tropical margin, between latitudes 24-30o N, a region that encompasses most of the earth’s deserts. These latitudes mark a region between the tropical trade-wind circulation and the synoptic weather systems of mid-latitudes, where sinking dry air produces the clear skies and arid conditions of the Middle East. Temperatures are high, though winters may be quite cool (10o C) in the northwestern extremities. The sparse rainfall occurs mainly as sharp downpours between November and April and is higher in the northeast. Humidity over the water is high and can be very oppressive in the summer months. The little cloud cover that exists is more prevalent in winter and thunderstorms and fog are rare. Dustorms or haze occur frequently in summer. The climate of the northern Gulf is strongly influenced by the Taurus and Pontic mountains of Turkey, the Zagros mountains of Iran, and the Hejaz mountains along the western Arabian Peninsula. Tropical storms generally track from the northwest to the southeast along the axis of these mountain ranges. North of the Gulf, low pressure centres, with their associated cold fronts move from west to east, and the associated winds are influenced by the mountain ranges so that they follow the Tigris and Euphrates valleys and the axis of the northern Gulf. Winds: Shamal, Kaus, sea breeze, and monsoons The “Shamal” (Arabic for north) wind blows down the axis of the Gulf in summer and winter (Fig. 2). Usually the Shamal appears in the northwest and spreads south, it is seldom strong, and rarely reaches gale force (Murty and El-Sabh, 1984). The winter Shamal occasionally sets in abruptly with great force and speeds above 10 m s-1, and gale force Shamals occur once or twice each winter and bring the strongest winds and highest waves of the season. Classic Shamal winds occur after a cold front passage and southerly winds, called “Kaus” in Arabic or “Shakki” in Persian, precede ← Fig. 1. Topography and bathymetry of the Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman. Wind patterns are controlled by the mountain ranges in Iran and Oman. The low arid regions to the south produce strong sea/land-breeze circulations along those coasts. The Gulf is relatively shallow and gradually deepens to an 80 m depression near Iran. An important feature in the circulation is the sudden drop off, with no sill, at the exit of the Strait of Hormuz which allows bottom water to fall unrestricted into the Gulf of Oman. muna_gulf_fin1.p65 43 2/20/02, 10:45 AM 44 R.M. Reynolds Fig. 2. A schematic of typical wind patterns in the Gulf region during the year. The arrows indicate typical (mean) directions and the numbers show the mean wind speeds during the season. A synoptic pressure pattern and accompanying synoptic winds for a Shamal/Kaus wind even are overlaid over the mean pattern for the month of January. the front. The Kaus winds slowly increase in intensity as the front approaches. The Kaus can reach gale force before the frontal passage and the onset of the Shamal. Due to the channelling of the low-level air flow by the Zagros mountains of western Iran, the strongest of the southerly winds occur on the eastern, Iranian, side of the Gulf. Severe gales can be caused by cold air accumulation over northern Iraq and Syria pouring through the Tigris-Euphrates valley as a density flow (Feteris, 1973; Navy, 1980; Perrone, 1981). As described in Section 1, the winds exert a strong influence on the mixing and the circulation of the Gulf. Models show current circulations that are variable and often composed of eddies or subgyres (Clifford et al., 1997; Blain, 2000). The circulation is much more eddy-like when the winds blew across the axis of the sea, mainly due to wind vorticity from local topography. When the winds are along the axis of the sea, there are fewer eddies and the flow was more along the axis. muna_gulf_fin1.p65 44 2/20/02, 10:45 AM Meteorology and climate 45 A strong sea breeze occurs along the entire coastline, especially along the Arabian peninsula. The intense heating of the land relative to the water creates a circulation with rising air over the land and a compensating sea breeze (toward the beach) at the coast. The land cools during the night and generally the wind along the coast reverses and becomes an offshore land breeze in the early morning. Coastal wind stations show that the sea breeze can reach speeds of as high as 10 m s-1, while the associated land breeze might not be more than 1-2 m s-1. The sea-land breeze cycle is superimposed on the larger scale wind patterns, and the combined effect is that the mean wind vector along the coast points inland during the day when the sea breeze is strongest and aligns itself more along shore, about the same as the offshore winds, during the night. The asymmetric behaviour acts to drive surface pollutants (oil and others) to the beach much faster than they would move otherwise. Surface pollutant trajectories In the open sea a rule of thumb is that an oil patch might move 15o to the right of the wind (in the northern hemisphere) and at 3% of the wind speed. This occurs because of the rotation of the Earth. In the shallow Gulf this rotation effect is reduced because of frictional interaction with the bottom. The wind drift and sea-land breezes combine to push oil and other pollutants onto the beaches of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and finally the United Arab Emirates. Drifting buoy studies in the Gulf find that buoys along the western side of the Gulf are quickly driven onto the beach (Tawfig, 1987; Reynolds, 1993b). In an enclosed basin such as the Persian Gulf, sustained winds such as Shamals generate secondary circulations over the entire basin. The wind drives the water against the opposing coast, and the reverse pressure gradient drives the secondary flow. The secondary flow is generally against the wind and in some areas it can oppose and even nullify residual, wind-induced currents. An example of this effect is the very low observed drift over several months of the drifting buoys in the central northern gulf (discussed below). During the 1991 massive oil spill in the northern Gulf, two frontal passages occurred and the northerly Shamal winds were interrupted by southerly Kaus winds. The Kaus halted the spill’s advance and gave response teams additional time to mobilise. Particularly high winds accompanied the first Kaus event and raised the waves to 3 m where seastate is normally less than 1 m. This hampered response efforts but the agitation also assisted in the oil’s dispersion. The combined wind and current effects drove the oil to shore, fouling 300 km of coast between Kuwait and the Abu Ali peninsula. The oil ran ashore just north of the seawater intakes for industrial cooling/ process water and the desalination plants at Jubail (which produces >80% of the water for the Saudi capital of Riyadh). Hydrology: rivers, evaporation and precipitation Water is the most precious fluid on earth, and there are few challenges as important as conserving the world’s usable water, supplying clean drinking water and water for irrigation to those who need it. Population pressures are depleting the earth’s store of muna_gulf_fin1.p65 45 2/20/02, 10:45 AM 46 R.M. Reynolds usable water at a rate that will soon threaten our food supply. Nowhere is this situation more critical than in the arid regions of the Middle East. Most river inflow into the Gulf occurs in the northern end, primarily from Iraq and Iran. Recent river volume flow measurements were provided to the MT. MITCHELL scientists, and the new data allowed a better estimate of outflow than had hitherto been available. The Shatt Al-Arab is a nexus of three major rivers: the Tigris and Euphrates rivers together provide an annual average of 708 m3 s-1 and the Karun adds 748 m3 s-1. Thus, the total average outflow of the Shatt Al-Arab is 1456 m3 s-1. From Bagdad to the Shatt Al-Arab, almost 90% of the Tigris-Euphrates flow is lost to evaporation and agriculture and most of the discharge into the Gulf comes from the Karun river. Other modern estimates for the total discharge at Shatt Al-Arab are approximately 1000 m3 yr-1 (Britannica.com, 2001)). Other major rivers are the Hendijan (203 m3 s-1), the Hilleh (444 m3 s-1), and the Mand (1387 m3 s-1). The sum of these averages amounts to an annual runoff of 110 km3 yr-1, but there is great variability in these published estimates. It is greater than earlier published estimates of from 5 to 100 km3 yr-1 (Ahmed and Sultan, 1991) and needs further verification. If the annual volume is divided by the area of the Gulf, an equivalent change in depth of 46 cm yr1 results (Reynolds, 1993a). Al-Hajri (1990) uses a value of 16 cm yr-1. Industrial and agricultural development are having a pronounced effect on the outflow from the Shatt Al-Arab, where annual runoff has decreased substantially over the past twenty years. Annual rainfall in the arid climate of the Gulf is small, of the order of 7 cm yr-1. Rainfall makes a negligible contribution to the fresh-water budget of the Gulf region. Estimates of evaporation vary from 500 cm yr-1 to 144 cm yr-1. The lower figure from Privett (1959) is in agreement with Meshal and Hassan (1986) who estimated 200 cm yr-1, and this latter term is probably closer to the actual amount (Ahmed and Sultan, 1991). Evaporation in the summer is considerably higher than the winter and the steamy waters unleash a soupy mist that lowers visibility to a few hundred meters and creates radar snowstorms that can become a serious problem for ship manoeuvres. Energy budgets Any body of water is in long-term equilibrium in its heat and salt content. The excess evaporation over fresh water input results in excess salt that must be balanced by the flow in the Strait of Hormuz. Likewise, the annual net heat loss over the entire Gulf is about 21 W m-1 (Table 1) (Ahmed and Sultan, 1991). This number is in agreement with similar computations in the Red Sea (Bunker et al., 1982; Ahmad and Sultan, 1989). The heat loss over the entire area of the Gulf must be supplied by a net heat transport through the Strait of Hormuz from the Gulf of Oman. The circulation pattern at the Strait of Hormuz, where warm fresher water is at the top and cold salty water out at the bottom, both balances the energy deficit and also balances the salt excess which was caused by the strong evaporation. The energy budget in the Gulf has four major contributors, solar radiation, heat radiation, heat transfer, and evaporative cooling. Solar heating provides a large input into the water, heat transfer (sensible heat) varies widely but the annual mean is almost negligible, and the longwave and evaporative net heat transfer act to cool the water. muna_gulf_fin1.p65 46 2/20/02, 10:45 AM Meteorology and climate 47 Table 1. Summary of the wet energy balance in the Gulf. Positive indicates heat flux into the water column. All numbers are in units of W m-3. Source Max/Month Min/Month Mean Solar radiation Longwave (heat) Sensible heat flux Evaporative 275/Jun -92/Jan -30/Jan -299/July 136/Dec -42/May 42/Jun -85/Feb 212 -66 1 -168 TOTAL -21 The list below summarises the fluxes during the year and as an average (positive sign indicates heat into the water). There is a great deal of room for error here, mainly due to the lack of good long-term over-the-water measurements. The above estimates came from climatic atlases, monthly means, and relied on fixed-value bulk coefficients which we know to depend on the wind speed and air-sea temperature differences. The energy budget is a crucial consideration when one tries to compute the flow through the Strait of Hormuz and the residence time in the Gulf, and more accurate estimates are in great need. Climate change: past and future Mankind currently puts 5.2 billion tonnes (6 Gt) of CO2 into the atmosphere each year. Of that, the oceans take up 2 Gt and terrestrial plants have a net zero balance. Thus, approximately 3.2 Gt CO2 remain in the atmosphere each year. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution in the middle nineteenth century, the concentration of CO2 has increased from 260 ppm to 415 ppm in an exponential growth curve that shows no sign of levelling off. The famous Vostok ice cores indicate that concentrations of CO2 and CH4 are higher now than in the past 420000 years. Because of increased concentrations of CO2 and CH4 , along with a few lesser gasses, the atmosphere is trapping more and more longwave (heat) radiation, resulting in an overall global warming (the “greenhouse effect”). There is no question that Earth is warming, and warming at an accelerating pace. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO, 2000) announced recently that for global mean temperature, 8 of the 10 warmest years in recorded history have been recorded in the past decade, and 1999 and 1998 rank in first and second place respectively. The year 2000 will probably rank as the fifth warmest. The relationship between CO2 release and warming has been difficult to recognise because although the take up of CO2 is instantaneous, the warming has a built in delay of about 50 years, mainly because of the ocean’s thermal inertia. Thus, since the beginning of this century Earth’s mean temperature has risen by about 0.5o C, and at current levels of CO2 release, the final temperature increase for expected levels of release is expected to be 2o C in this century (IPCC, 2000). In comparison, the increased solar albedo resulting from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption caused a global cooling of approximately 0.3o C. muna_gulf_fin1.p65 47 2/20/02, 10:45 AM 48 R.M. Reynolds The global atmosphere, ocean, land, and ice caps must be viewed as a single interrelated system. Processes in any part of the system will have some impact on all parts of the system by way of “teleconnection” pathways. The teleconnections work both ways in complex feedback networks and thus certain processes can result in a system response that acts to increase the process. An example of such a “positive feedback” would be the melting of the Arctic tundra and release of vast quantities of methane which would accelerate the greenhouse heating rate. In other cases, “negative feedback” acts to suppress the original process such as when increased evaporation from warming creates more low level clouds which reflect sunlight and thus cool the atmosphere. Further, the processes and their feedback loops are generally non-linear and this results in exponential responses to perturbations. We cannot expect forests to help avert the continuous increase of CO2, even with extensive planting and reduction of deforestation. According to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Watson, 2000), tree planting will buy a little time, but such “carbon sinks” will soon become saturated with carbon (called “sink saturation”) and start returning most of it to the atmosphere and accelerate warming. The concept of sink saturation was not understood at the time of the Kyoto meeting where planting trees was assigned an important role. So, planting more trees could soon prove a quick way of speeding up climate change, not moderating it. Local effects of global warming can be extreme and are reported regularly in news reports. For instance, extreme warming (>5o C above normal) in northern Canada has resulted in reduced ice fields, poor fur quality, and polar bears are 40-100 kg smaller than last year. Permafrost destabilisation leads to bridge collapse, road havoc, and erosion (NY Times, Dec 1998). In the tropical Pacific Ocean, coral are dying at enormous rates. Up to 80% of the coral in the Seychelles and 90% in Indonesia are dead. The sea surface temperature in the Indian ocean is now 29o C, but occasionally exceeds 33oC which results in severe bleaching (Harpers magazine, April 1999, Global Coral Reef Alliance, Chappaqua NY). The Gulf region must be aware of changing climate, especially global warming, in its arid desert locale. An IPCC study of regional impacts of climate change (Watson et al., 1997) reports that for the Middle East we will see little change to the already existing arid conditions (i.e., most lands that are deserts are expected to remain deserts). Small increases in precipitation are expected, but this will likely be countered by increased evaporation. Grasslands, livestock, and water resources are likely to be the most vulnerable because they are located in marginal areas. Plants are known to grow better in increased CO2 levels, and increased plant robustness and growth are a possible outcome, but only marginally. The report warns of increased water shortage, and emphasises that agricultural practices, especially irrigation, need to be carefully managed to improve the efficiency of water use. The possible water shortage, increased temperature, and increased spread of vector-borne diseases are likely to result from continued climate trends. Sea level is rising in concert with the global changes. This can have profound effects on human activity world wide, especially in third-world coastal countries. It is estimated that sea level has risen by 18 cm in the past 50 years (Nigel Hawkes, N. Y. Times, 16 Oct. 1998) and over the next 100 years we can expect an additional rise of >50 cm (IPCC, 2001). If Antarctica melts as predicted the rise could be as much as >83 cm (IPCC, 2001). Also, it is believed that other contributors to sea level rise muna_gulf_fin1.p65 48 2/20/02, 10:45 AM Meteorology and climate 49 – melting of mountain glaciers, water expansion, melting of the Greenland ice sheet – are also underestimated. In the Gulf, a study of monthly mean sea level changes shows a trend over the past 11 years of 2.3 cm (Sultan et al., 1995). A recent theory (Leatherman et al., 2000) suggests that as sea level rises, the inland effect can extend to 150 times more the incursion than that would be predicted on terrain slope alone! Thus sea level rise, especially in the flat coastlines along the southern coast of the Gulf are expected to be highly impacted by sea level rise. The above global climate warming and sea level rise are gradual and, while significant, are not catastrophic. However, several sudden and catastrophic events have been reported in the literature (Zimmerman et al., 1998). Paleoclimate records indicate that many times in the Earth’s history the climate changed abruptly and precipitously in the time span of a few years to as little as a single year. An example of an abrupt climate change, the average temperature of the Earth changed dramatically over just a decade 12800 years ago when the planet was returning from the last ice age (and the Gulf did not exist). After a period of gradual warming, the circulation of the Atlantic ocean suddenly changed and the Earth was thrown into ice-age conditions called the “Younger Dryas event,” which lasted 1300 years. The end of this cold spell came even more abruptly, with a 6o C warming over a 5 year period. Sudden cooling events and subsequent warming events coincide with sudden shifts in the circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, called the North Atlantic oscillation. The theory is that the Gulf Stream circulation is greatly reduced, and its extension, the Norwegian current which supplies an enormous amount of heat to northern Europe, stops altogether. Within a decade, France would have a temperature like central Canada and Norway would resemble Greenland. Conditions on the Earth before the Younger Dryas event were similar to those today, and there is speculation (Rühlemann et al., 1999) that a similar sudden climate change is possible; with disastrous consequences for most of Europe. A similar cooling event occurred 4200 years ago (2200 BC) and corresponds to the sudden collapse of the world’s first human empire in Mesopotamia. A sediment core from the Gulf has revealed that the supply of dust from the Mesopotamian region at 2200 BC was roughly five times the current dust transport levels. Thus the Younger Dryas, or similar cooling events signal extreme drought and dust to the Middle East. Another example of how the North Atlantic oscillation can effect Middle East climate can be found in precipitation records. In general, the rainfall in Istanbul, near the head waters of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, vary in phase with the North Atlantic oscillation. When the North Atlantic was cold, the headwaters region was cooler in the streams that supplied Mesopotamia’s water. Abrupt and catastrophic changes are interesting to contemplate, but there is no observational or computer climate model confirmation of these occurring in the near future. The observed gradual warming trends are expected to continue, and need to be incorporated into any scenario for the next 100 years. Summary and gaps in our knowledge There is a multitude of areas where our knowledge of the meteorological climate in this region can improve. This improvement is a critical aspect of our ability to muna_gulf_fin1.p65 49 2/20/02, 10:45 AM 50 R.M. Reynolds understand, to model, and to predict the interrelationships between the meteorological processes and the oceanographic response. The following list represents only the most essential areas of our gaps in knowledge. A better understanding of the sea breeze processes along all the coasts is important here. Further, the sea-land breeze dynamics need to be an essential part of numerical models of the circulation and pollutant trajectories. As the earth warms and sea level rises, 18 cm in the past 50 years, we need to better understand how the beach areas and low coastal areas will be effected. Real over-the-water flux measurements of high scientific quality need to be taken and then used to develop a “tuned” bulk flux algorithm that can be applied to existing and past measurements. References Ahmad, F., Sultan, A.R., 1989. Surface heat fluxes and their comparison with oceanic heat flow in the Red Sea. Oceanologica Acta 12, 33-36. Ahmad, F., Sultan, S.A.R., 1991. Annual mean surface heat fluxes in the Arabian Gulf and the net heat transport through the Strait of Hormuz. Atmosphere-Ocean 29, 54-61. Al-Hajri, K., 1990. The circulation of the Arabian (Persian) Gulf: A model study of its dynamics. Ph.D. Thesis, The Catholic University of America, Washington, DC, available through UMI Dissertation Information Service, Order Number 9106378. Arnone, R.A., Ladner, S., Violette, P.E.L., Brock, J.C., Rochford, P.A., 1998. Seasonal and interannual variability of surface photosynthetically available radiation in the Arabian Sea. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 7735-7748. Blain, C.A., 2000. Modeling three-dimensional thermohaline-driven circulation in the Arabian Gulf. In: M.L. Spaulding, H.L. Butler (Eds.), Estuarine and Coastal Modeling, Proceedings of the 6th International Conference, ASCE, in press. Brink, K., Arnone, R., Cobble, P., Flagg, C., Jones, D., Kindle, J., Lee, C., Phinney, D., Wood, M., Yentsch, C., Young, D., 1998. Monsoons boost biological productivity in Arabian Sea. EOS 79, 168-169. Britannica.com, 2000. The Tigris-Euphrates System. On line reference service, 2 pp. Brock, J.C., McClain, C.R., Luther, M.E., Hay, W.W., 1992. The phytoplankton bloom in the northwest Arabian Sea during the southwest monsoon of 1979. J. Geophys. Res. 96, 20623-20642. Bunker, A.F., Charnock, H., Goldsmith, R.A., 1982. A note on the heat balance of the Mediterranean and Red Seas. J. Mar. Res. 40, 73-84, supplement. Clifford, M., Horton, C., Schmitz, J. 1997. An oceanographic nowcast/forecast system for the Red Sea. J. Geophys. Res. 102, 25101-25122. Feteris, P.J., 1973. The role of deep convection and strong winds aloft in triggering gales over the Persian Gulf: comparative case studies. Monthly Weather Review 101, 455-460. Hasternath, S., Greischar, L. 1991. The monsoonal current regimes of the tropical Indian Ocean: Observed surface flow fields and their geostrophic and wind-driven components. J. Geophys. Res. 96, 1261912633. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2000. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. IPCC Third Assessment Report, Cambridge University Press, London, 944 pp. Leatherman, S.P., Zhang, K., Douglas, B.C., 2000. Sea level rise dhown to drive coastal erosion. EOS 81, 55-57. Meshal, A.H., Hassan, H.M., 1986. Evaporation from the coastal water of the central part of the Gulf. Arab. Gulf J. Scientific Res. 4, 649-655. Murty, T.S., El-Sabh, M.I., 1984. Storm tracks, storm surges, and sea state in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. In: El-Sabh (Ed.), Oceanographic Modeling of the Kuwait Action (KAP) Region, p. 12-24. University of Petroleum and Minerals, UNESCO, Paris. Navy, U.S., 1980. Climatic study of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Reference Report, U.S. Navy Naval Oceanography Command, Ashville, NC. Unclassified. muna_gulf_fin1.p65 50 2/20/02, 10:45 AM Meteorology and climate 51 Perrone, T.J., 1981. Winter Shamal in the Persian Gulf. Technical Report I.R.-79-06, Naval Environmental Prediction Research Facility. Monterey, CA. Approx. 23 pp. Privett, D.W., 1959. Monthly charts of evaporation from the N. Indian Ocean (including the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf). Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 85, 424-428. Reynolds, R.M., 1993a. Physical oceanography of the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman – Results from the Mt. Mitchell expedition. Marine Pollution Bulletin 27, 35-59. Reynolds, R.M., 1993b. Argos-tracked drifter study in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman during the NOAA-Mt. Mitchell expedition. Argos Newsletter 46, 15-19. Rühlemann, C., Mulitza, C., Müller, P.J., Wefer, G., Zahn, R., 1999. Warming of the Atlantic Ocean and slowdown of thermocline circulation during the last deglaciation. Nature 402, 511. Schott, G., 1918. Ozeanographie und klimatologie des persischen golfes und des golfes von Oman. (Oceanography and climatology of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. In German). Annalen der hydrographie und maritimen meteorologie 46, 1-50. Sultan, S.A.R., Ahmad, F., Elghribi, N.M., Subhi, A.M., 1995. An analysis of Arabian Gulf monthly mean sea level. Cont. Shelf Res. 15, 1471-1482. Tawfig, N.I., 1987. Satellite-tracked buoy activity in Saudi Arabia, preliminary results for the Coastal Zone ‘87 Conference. pp. 441-452. Watson, R.T., Zinyowera, M.C., Moss, R.H., Dokken, D.J., 1997. The regional impacts of climate change. Tech. Rep. ISBN 92-9169-110-0. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Watson, R.T., Nobel, I.R., Bolin, B., Ravindranth, N.H., Verado, D.J., Dokken, D.J. (Eds.), 2000. Land Use, Change and Forestry. IPCC Special Report, Cambridge University Press, 375 pp. WMO (World Meteorological Organization), 2000. WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2000. WMO, Geneva, Report WMO-920, 12 pp. Zimmerman, H., Alley, R.B., deMenocal, P.B., 1998. Abrupt climate changes revisited: How serious and how likely? U.S. Global Change Research Program Seminar Series, Monday, Feb. 23, 1998, in the Dirksen Senate Office Building, Washington, DC. http://benetton.dkrz.de:999/kimo/0360/html muna_gulf_fin1.p65 51 2/20/02, 10:45 AM