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How universities and R&E networks
can play leadership role in reducing
CO2 emissions
Bill St. Arnaud
CANARIE Inc – www.canarie.ca
[email protected]
Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced,
modified or distributed without prior permission of the author
The Climate Change
Imperative
> One of , if not, the greatest threat to our future society and
economy is global warming.
> 15-30% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 will be needed to
keep the temperature increase under 2 °C, and a deeper reduction
by 60-80% may be needed by 2050.*
> Past IPCC assessments have underestimated the pace of change
>
Latest data indicates we are at the high end of projections
> It will be necessary to go beyond incremental improvements in
energy efficiency, current life-styles and business practices.
Significantly more drastic measures will need to be undertaken
*International Panel on Climate Change
2
Climate Forecasts
Source: IPCC WG1 SPM, 2007 http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf Chris Hope - Cambridge
3
Possible climate “911” event
> Must Watch: National Science Advisor John Holdren on Global
Climate Disruption
–
http://greenmonk.net/john-holdren-on-global-climatic-disruption/
> Stephen Chu – new head of DoE – “Wake up America!!”
–
http://climateprogress.org/2009/02/04/chu-were-looking-at-a-scenario-where-theres-no-more-agriculture-incalifornia-part-2/
> USGS Abrupt Climate Change report finds that future climate shifts
have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in
climate that would be devastating.
–
–
http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-4/final-report/default.htm
http://climateprogress.org/2008/11/24/what-are-the-near-term-climate-pearl-harbors/
> What would your organization do, if governments ordered drastic
reduction in CO2 from coal plants and transportation?
– How will this impact your data center plans & Internet?
4
Our Challenge
26 tons/person
j
2008
?
2 tons/person
1 ton/person
j
j
2050
2100
Source: Stern 2008
5
ICT and Cyber-infrastructure
and CO2 emissions*
> It is estimated that the ICT industry alone produces CO2
emissions that is equivalent to the carbon output of the entire
aviation industry.
> ICT emissions growth fastest of any sector in society, doubling
about every 4 years
> One small computer server generates as much carbon dioxide as
a SUV with a fuel efficiency of 15 miles per gallon
> Typical university produces 200,000 – 500,000 metric tons CO2
per year of which 100,000 – 300,000 tons is from Cyberinfrastructure and ICT
> Back of envelope estimates suggests Higher Ed in US produce 510% of all emissions
*An Inefficient Tuth: http://www.globalactionplan.org.uk/event_detail.aspx?eid=2696e0e0-28fe-4121-bd36-3670c02eda49
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Carbon Footprint by state
7
Energy consumption versus
GHG emissions
> Number one problem facing the planet is climate change
– Lots of confusion between Green IT, energy consumption, energy
efficiency, Clean ICT, sustainable IT, Corporate social responsibility
> Turning off the lights or computers may not be the answer
– Also misleads people into thinking problem is easy to solve
– CERN super-collider may produce less GHG than a single router in USA
> Our focus should be on how ICT can reduce GHG emissions
– NOT energy consumption or energy efficiency
– NOT Clean ICT such as computer waste etc
– NOT sustainable IT
– NOT Corporate Social Responsibility
8
University GHG emissions
 Projected GHGs are
based on Planned
Growth in Ten Year
Capital Plan
Source: SFU Facilities Services
ENERGY MANAGEMENT
1965 - 2008
9
CI major cause of GHG
emissions
TASC2 Research Building
SFU
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ICT and Cyber-Infrastructrue
is critical to reducing CO2
> Direct emissions of Internet and ICT are important at 2-3% of
world emissions but, in order of impact, the most significant
contribution we can make is through leveraged, or indirect,
emissions reductions.
>
According to SMART 2020 these represent as much as a 15%
reduction opportunity in global emissions.
> (And SMART 2020 is one of the most conservative reports on
the topic. Others identify even higher potential for savings).
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ICT’s Enabling Effect is
Significant
> Can deliver carbon emission
reductions five times size of
sector’s own footprint by
2020
– 7.8 Giga-tons carbon
dioxide equivalent
– Greater than US or China’s
current annual emissions
> Key sectors include
Transportation, Buildings,
Industrial Processes, and
Power
> No other sector can achieve
this enabler effect !!
Source: SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age, 2008
12
But first we must clean up
our own act
> ICT is 2-3% of GHG emissions mostly through consumption of
electricity produced by coal powered generating stations
> ICT energy consumption is expected to double over the next 4 to 6
years
> Even greater ICT deployment will be needed for GHG abatement in
other sectors such as smart buildings etc
> ICT represent 9.4% of total US electricity consumption, and 5.3% of
global electricity consumption
–
http://uclue.com/index.php?xq=724
> Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all
electricity
– http://www.ee.unimelb.edu.au/people/rst/talks/files/Tucker_Green_Plen
ary.pdf
13
The Falsehood of Energy
Efficiency
> Most current approaches to reduce carbon footprint are focused on
increased energy efficiency of equipment and processes
> But growth in ICT deployment of equipment and services is outstripping
any gains made in efficiency
– Which is likely to accelerate as ICT is used to support abatement in other
fields such as smart homes, smart buildings, smart grids etc
> Also greater efficiency can paradoxically increase energy consumption
by reducing overall cost service and therefore stimulates demand
– Khazzoom-Brookes postulate (aka Jevons paradox aka rebound effect)
– In last Energy crisis in 1973 Congress passed first energy efficiency laws
(CAFÉ) which mandate minimum mileage for cars, home insulation and
appliances
– Net effect was to reduce cost of driving car, heating or cooling home, and
electricity required for appliances
– Consumer response was to drive further, buy bigger homes and
appliances
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Zero Carbon strategy
essential
> Zero carbon strategy using renewable energy critically important if
governments mandate carbon neutrality, or if there is a climate
catastrophe
> With a zero carbon strategy growth in demand for ICT services will not
effect GHG emissions
– Anything times zero is always zero
> Wind and solar power are most likely candidates because of
opportunity cost/benefit analysis especially time to deploy
– Nuclear has high opportunity cost because of time to deploy
– http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/14/stanford-study-part-1-wind-solarbaseload-easily-beat-nuclear-and-they-all-best-clean-coal/
> But renewable energy sites are usually located far from cities and
electrical distribution systems are not designed to carry load
– http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/12/pdf/renewable_transm
ission.pdf
15
“Zero Carbon” ICT
> Purchasing green power locally is expensive with significant transmission
line losses
–Demand for green power within cities expected to grow dramatically
> ICT facilities DON’T NEED TO BE LOCATED IN CITIES
–-Cooling also a major problem in cities
> But most renewable energy sites are very remote and impractical to
connect to electrical grid.
– Can be easily reached by an optical network
– Provide independence from electrical utility and high costs in wheeling power
– Savings in transmission line losses (up to 15%) alone, plus carbon offsets
can pay for moving ICT facilities to renewable energy site
>ICT is only industry ideally suited to relocate to renewable energy sites
– Also ideal for business continuity in event of climate catastrophe
16
Many examples
Wind powered data centers
Hydro-electric powered data centers
ASIO solar powered data centers
Data Islandia
Digital Data Archive
17
Significant Economic
opportunities
> Many of these techniques and practices will also lead to exciting
new business opportunities.
> Universities that will be the first to deploy ICT strategies to
mitigate global warming will be the new economic and research
powerhouses
> New revenue opportunities and business models for network
operators and application providers
> Significant revenue opportunities for universities and regional
networks in carbon offsets
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Do your carbon inventory
NOW!!
> You can not earn credits until you do an inventory and
calculate baseline emissions
– www.ghginstitute.org provides eTraining
> Next year carbon cap price will be $100 per ton in Europe
> At European cap price the cost of GHG emission could be as
much $10 - $50 million per year for university in the next
decade
– A lot depends on details of Obama’s cap and trade
> Conversely university could earn $10 - $50 million per year if a
university is zero carbon
– No revenue potential if university is carbon neutral
19
American College & University
President’s Climate Commitment
“Signatories agree to…
Create institutional structures
Select & implement tangible
actions to reduce greenhouse
gases
Complete a comprehensive
greenhouse gas inventory
Develop a climate-neutral
action plan
Make information publicly
available”
20
Funding to universities
linked to CO2 reduction
> UK government is planning to link the funding available to universities
and colleges with their performance in reducing carbon emissions.
> In his annual grant letter to the Higher Education Funding Council for
England (HEFCE), Universities secretary Denham asked the Council
to set out a strategy for curbing emissions by 80 per cent by 2050.
> He added that while the higher education sector had originally been
asked to deliver a strategy to cut emissions by 60 per cent by 2050
and 26 per cent by 2020, the 60 per cent target had now been raised to
80 per cent in line with the government’s wider climate change bill.
>
http://www.carbonoffsetsdaily.com/global/government-funding-toreward-greenest-universities-3996.htm
>
21
Public Sector to be carbon
neutral by 2010 in BC
> British Columbia was first government to introduce carbon tax in
Western Hemisphere
> Provincial Government in province of British Columbia has
mandated all public sector institutions to be carbon neutral by
2010
– Other provinces exploring to implement the same policy
– New Zealand has also made the same requirements
> Many universities and businesses are adopting voluntary carbon
neutrality objectives
– Dell, Cisco, Google etc
> This will have big impact on university research and optical
networks
22
The GreenLight Project
> Understanding carbon footprint of cyber-infrastructure very
difficult
– Energy consumption depend on traffic load, software
architecture etc
> UCSD now deploying first component of green cyberinfrastructure to consolidate virtualized computer clusters and
servers in energy-efficient mobile facilities.
> Calorimeter in the middle of the cyber-infrastructure and
network
> http://nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward.do?AwardNumber=
0821155
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Green IT MoU
>
Initial Signatories: UCSD, UBC, PROMPT
>
To share best practices in reducing GHG emissions and baseline emission data for cyberinfrastructure and networks as per ISO 14064,
>
To explore carbon reduction strategies by new network and distributed computing
architectures such as PROMPT G-NGI, OptiPuter and CineGrid.
>
To work with R&E network to explore relocation of resources to renewable energy sites,
virtualization, etc.
>
>
To explore the potential for a “virtual” carbon trading systems
>
To explore the creation of a multi-sector pilot of a generalized ICT carbon trading system
including stakeholders from government, industry, and universities.
>
To collaborate with each other and with government agencies and departments and other
organizations
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CANARIE Green-IT Pilot
> $3m - $4m allocation for Green cyber-infrastructure-IT pilot
testbed
> Two objectives:
– Technical viability and usability for relocating computers to zero
carbon data centers and follow the sun/follow the wind grid
– Business case viability of offering carbon offsets (and or
equivalent in services) to IT departments and university
researchers who reduce their carbon footprint by relocating
computers and instrumentation to zero carbon data centers
> International partnership with possible zero carbon nodes
using virtual router/computers in Spain, Ireland, California,
Australia, British Columbia, Ottawa, Quebec and Nova Scotia
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But renewable power is not
reliable
> How do you provide mission critical ICT services when energy source
is unreliable?
– Ebbing wind or setting sun
> Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not
zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks
> Need new network architectures and business models to ensure
reliable service delivery by quickly moving compute jobs and data
sets around the world to sites that have available power
– Will require high bandwidth networks and routing architectures to
quickly move jobs and data sets from site to site
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PROMPT – Next Generation Internet to
Reduce Global Warming
 Research on router, optical, W/W-less and
distributed computing architectures,
applications, grids, clouds, Web services,
virtualization, dematerialization, remote
instrumentation and sensors, etc.
 Share infrastructure & maximize lower cost
power by “following wind & sun” networks.
Sources: GENI and Inocybe
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Policy approaches to
reducing CO2
> Carbon taxes
– Politically difficult to sell
> Cap and trade
– Useful for big emitters like power companies
– Addresses only supply side of CO2
> Carbon offsets
– Immature market with no standards
– But addresses demand side of CO2 by businesses and consumers
> Carbon Neutrality imposed by law
– Growing in popularity especially as protests over gas tax escalates
> But there may be an additional approach….
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Carbon Rewards rather
carbon taxes
> Although carbon taxes are revenue neutral, they payee rarely
sees any direct benefit
– No incentive other than higher cost to reduce footprint
> Rather than penalize consumers and businesses for carbon
emissions, can we reward them for reducing their carbon
emissions?
> Carbon rewards can be “virtual” products delivered over
broadband networks such movies, books, education, health
services etc
> Carbon reward can also be free ICT services (with low carbon
footprint) such as Internet, cellphone, fiber to the home, etc
29
Consumers control or influence 60 per
cent of emissions
Emissions under direct
consumer control (35%)
Other sectors (40%)
(e.g. manufacturing, coal mining,
export transport)
http://www.cbi.org.uk/pdf/climatereport2007full.pdf
Consumer influenced sectors (25%)
(e.g. retail, food and drink, wholesale, agriculture, public sector)
30
Carbon rewards rather than
carbon taxes- gCommerce
> Providing free download music, video, and electronic books in
exchange for carbon fees on parking, transportation etc
> Free distant learning courses rather than telecommuting
> Free advanced tele-presence systems in exchange for carbon
fees assessed on business travel
> Free mobile cell phone using femto cell and Wifi on public
transportation
> ICT and Internet is in the best position to dominate new world
of ‘gCommerce”
31
Free Wifi on Buses
> There’s a school bus service called The Green Bus in Birmingham, UK
which operates double-decker, low-carbon emissions buses that carry
over 1400 kids to school every day (saving over 2000 car journeys).
> In addition to encouraging kids to play peer-to-peer games, the access
points allow the bus company to monitor where the buses are in the
city in real time. Parents as well as staff can follow the progress of any
bus via Google maps.
> There’s an initiative in rural Arkansas for Wi-Fi on school buses.
>
> http://www.muniwireless.com/2009/01/14/school-kids-enjoy-wi-fi-ongreen-bus/
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Carbon Reward Strategy for
last mile infrastructure
> Provide free high speed Internet and fiber to the home with resale
of electrical and gas power (ESCOs)
– http://www.newamerica.net/files/HomesWithTails_wu_slater.pdf
> Customer pays a premium on their gas and electric bill
> Customers encouraged to save money through reduced energy
consumption and reduced carbon output
> Customer NOT penalized if they reduce energy consumption
– May end up paying substantially less then they do now for gas + electricity +
broadband + telephone + cable
> Network operator gets guaranteed revenue based on energy
consumption rather than fickle triple play
33
Conclusion
>
Cyber-infrastructure is part of the problem – but its also part of the solution
– Advanced optical research networks are essential for Green IT
>
Start planning for the ultimate disaster of significant energy cutbacks
>
Three step strategy to use ICT and cyber-infrastructure to reduce GHG
emissions:
1. Clean up our own act first
–
zero carbon Internet and cyber-infrastructure
2. Use ICT for abatement in other areas:
–
Smart buildings, smart grid etc
3. Use ICT as a reward mechanism to promote reduction of GHG emissions
–
gCommerce
34
Train your IT staff in offsets
> Not for profit eLearning institute
> The institute offers rigorous online training and workshops on
GHG accounting, auditing and management.
> Most participants are from IT industry
> Absolutely essential if you want to sell carbon offsets
> http://www.ghginstitute.org/
35
Thank you
> More information
> http://green-broadband.blogspot.com
> http://free-fiber-to-the-home.blogspot.com/
>
33