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Pilot Application
Adaptive Design & Assessment Policy Tool
(ADAPTool)
British Columbia Ministry of Agriculture
Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program
December 2013
Prepared by:
Prepared for:
B.C. Ministry of Agriculture Climate Action Team
B.C. Ministry of Agriculture
International Institute for Sustainable Development
B.C. Ministry of Environment
(Climate Action Secretariat)
Natural and Social Capital Program
Adaptive Resource Management Ltd
© 2014 The International Institute for Sustainable Development
Published by the International Institute for Sustainable Development.
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Pilot Application
Adaptive Design & Assessment Policy Tool (ADAPTool):
British Columbia Ministry of Agriculture Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program
December 2013
With support from Natural Resources Canada through the Adaptation Platform
For more information on climate change
impacts and adaptation in Canada,
please visit: Adaptation.NRCan.gc.ca
2013 ADAPTool PILOT APPLICATION
Adaptive Design & Assessment Policy Tool (ADAPTool)
British Columbia Ministry of Agriculture Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program
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Project Delivery Team
Samantha Charlton (Ministry of Agriculture Climate Action Team) led the B.C. ADAPTool pilot assessment for the
fisheries program and was lead author of this report.
Ian McLachlan (Ministry of Agriculture Climate Action Team Lead) provided review and coordinated this report with
the ADAPTool assessment of the ministry’s agriculture programs (described in a separate report).
Stephen Tyler (IISD/Adaptive Resource Management) provided project coordination, technical expertise and training
on adaptive policy-making and the ADAPTool, contributed to analysis and co-authored this report.
Willow Minaker and Jennifer Pouliotte (Ministry of Environment) coordinated the B.C. component and the co-funding
contributions to this Natural Resources Canada project and provided feedback and adaptation policy guidance. Willow
organized the Victoria training workshop.
Acknowledgements
We thank the following program leads and staff for their engagement with this pilot: Barron Carswell, Larry Nielsen,
Charlie Twaddle, Dennis Chalmers, Myron Roth and Sean Cheesman. Contractors Bud Graham and Bob Williams also
provided important expert input.
We appreciate the guidance and advice received from Matthew Wiens, who led the Manitoba ADAPTool pilot in 2012.
Thanks to Carly Haycroft for providing peer review and to Selma Low for finalizing the report.
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Executive Summary
1. Introduction
This pilot of the Adaptive Design and Assessment Policy Tool (ADAPTool) for the B.C. Ministry of Agriculture Marine
Fisheries and Seafood Program has been undertaken through a partnership involving funding from Natural Resources
Canada, adaptive policy expertise from the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), funding and
staff support from the B.C. Climate Action Secretariat (CAS) and in-kind staff contributions from the B.C. Ministry of
Agriculture.
The objective of the pilot was to test the application of the ADAPTool in the B.C. context, to provide the ministry with
a systematic assessment and understanding of the potential for its policies and programs to support climate change
adaptation in the agriculture sector, and to raise awareness and “mainstream” consideration of adaptation across the
ministry. The pilot aligns with the B.C. government’s climate change adaptation strategy. The pilot also aligns with
B.C. Agrifoods: A strategy for growth because successful adaptation will be required for the sectoral economic growth
envisioned in the strategy.
Because the stressors and associated vulnerabilities for fisheries and seafood are very different than those for landbased agriculture, the assessment for the program was done separately from the ADAPTool pilot for the ministry’s
agricultural programs.
2. Adaptive Program Assessment
Policies and programs that are adaptable to changing external conditions can better avoid unexpected failures
and unintended consequences, and more readily take advantage of new opportunities. The ADAPTool provides an
assessment of the extent to which the policies or programs are adaptable. The tool also helps analysts assess whether
policies and programs support sectoral adaptation to a particular stressor. While the tool can be applied to any stressor,
and in relation to any public policy domain, this application focuses on climate change and the B.C. government Marine
Fisheries and Seafood Program.
3. B.C. Fisheries Sector Vulnerabilities
Fisheries and seafood sector vulnerabilities were determined through background research and discussion with experts.
The vulnerability assessment also identified adaptation actions that fisheries and seafood sector operators could be
expected to take in response to these vulnerabilities.
4. Key Findings
The overall program assessment summary is shown in Table ES1. The Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program was not
developed with the specific intent to support adaptation to climate change. In that respect, this assessment is not an
evaluation of the current program, as it does not consider the program’s objectives and intent. The assessment results
are not meant to suggest deficiencies or failures in the program, but rather to flag measures that could make it more
adaptable and contribute more to sectoral adaptation if climate change is to be a significant policy driver for future
programming.
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TABLE ES1: PROGRAM ASSESSMENT SUMMARY
ADAPTIVE POLICY QUESTIONS
SCORES
Ability to Support Anticipated Adaptation Needs (Planned Adaptability score out of 10)
4
Are anticipated adaptation actions supported by the program?
1
Is the program itself vulnerable to the stressor?
0
Can the existing program enhance the capacity of participants within each sector to undertake the anticipated
adaptation actions?
1
Was multistakeholder deliberation used in the design of the program?
1
Do the policies have a regular formal policy review?
1
Program's Ability to Enable Sector Responses to Unanticipated Events (Autonomous Adaptability score out of 10)
5
Is multistakeholder deliberation used in the implementation of the policy?
1
Does the policy enable self-organization and social networking?
1
Is decision making for policy implementation adequately decentralized?
1
Is there adequate variety in the suite of policies and programs directed at the policy issue?
1
Do the policies have a regular formal policy review?
1
Overall Adaptive Capacity
1
Note: Scores range from 0 to 2. High scores (none here) are flagged green and indicate the program is contributing to adaptation needs. Low scores are
flagged red, indicating that the program is not contributing to planned and autonomous adaptability. Scores in-between are flagged yellow, signifying
partial contribution to adaptability.
The Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program resources are only applied to institutional tools and research and information
tools. Since the portfolio is not diverse, it scored a 1 and is considered to be partially adaptive. Diversifying into other
types of policy tools would raise the overall adaptive capacity of the program.
Potential adaptation actions that are directly supported by this group’s work are:
• A shift to more abundant or acidification-resistant species (sector: shellfish; vulnerability: decrease in
calcification rate).
• Increasing the flexibility and shortening the assessment phase of new fisheries development to access new
opportunities in both shellfish and non-anadromous commercial species (sector: shellfish; vulnerabilities:
changes to reproductive cycle and capacity of species of commercial value to adapt; sector: non-anadromous
species; vulnerability: changes in fisheries species [e.g., possible increase in anchovies, Albacore, sardines]).
• Accessing-higher value markets. (sector: anadromous species; vulnerability: reduced yields).
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Table of Contents
Project Delivery Team.........................................................................................................................................................................................iii
Acknowledgements.............................................................................................................................................................................................iii
Executive Summary.............................................................................................................................................................................................iv
1.0 Introduction..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 B.C. Climate Adaptation Strategy ...................................................................................................................................................2
1.2 Goals .........................................................................................................................................................................................................2
2.0 What is Adaptive Policy Making/Programming................................................................................................................................3
3.0 Scope of the Policy Analysis......................................................................................................................................................................3
4.0 Climate Change Stressors and Impacts............................................................................................................................................... 4
4.1 Changes in Oceanographic Conditions........................................................................................................................................ 4
4.2 Ocean Acidification............................................................................................................................................................................ 4
4.3 Sea-Level Rise...................................................................................................................................................................................... 4
4.4 Increased Storms and Rainfall.........................................................................................................................................................5
4.5 Changes to Hydrology........................................................................................................................................................................5
4.6 Freshwater/Seawater-Temperature Rise.....................................................................................................................................5
4.7 Changes to the Hydrograph (flow of waters)........................................................................................................................... 6
5.0 Jurisdiction......................................................................................................................................................................................................7
6.0 Vulnerability Analysis................................................................................................................................................................................. 8
7.0 Results of Adaptability Assessment......................................................................................................................................................11
7.1 Summary of Results............................................................................................................................................................................11
7.2 Direct Adaptation Support...............................................................................................................................................................12
7.3 Indirect Adaptation Support...........................................................................................................................................................14
7.4 Lessons Learned..................................................................................................................................................................................14
9.0 Summary and Conclusions......................................................................................................................................................................15
References..............................................................................................................................................................................................................16
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1.0 Introduction
This pilot of the Adaptive Design and Assessment Policy Tool (ADAPTool) for B.C. agriculture has been undertaken
through a partnership involving funding from Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), adaptive policy expertise from the
International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), funding and staff support from the B.C. Climate Action
Secretariat (CAS) and in-kind staff contributions from the B.C. Ministry of Agriculture.
The pilot is intended to broaden the application of the ADAPTool; to provide the ministry with baseline understanding
of the potential for its policies and programs to support climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector; and to
generate related discussion, networking and understanding among key staff, program leads and colleagues in other
ministries.
The pilot aligns with the B.C. government’s climate adaptation strategy and the Ministry of Agriculture’s 2013–2018
focus on climate change adaptation. The pilot also aligns with B.C. Agrifoods: A strategy for growth, because climate
change presents significant risks and opportunities for the industry, and successful adaptation will be required for the
sectoral growth envisioned in the strategy (Ministry of Agriculture, 2012).
This assessment covers the Marine Fisheries and Seafood policy unit and its function of managing the Marine Fisheries
and Seafood Program. This unit is located in Victoria, B.C. At the completion of the assessment, the group consisted
of three staff in Victoria and one based in Nanaimo. This group is involved in setting B.C. government policy direction
with respect to commercial fisheries and seafood. It also represents the interests of the province in areas of federal and
international jurisdiction so that the industry can achieve maximum economic returns in a sustainable manner.
The Province of B.C. has very limited jurisdiction for fisheries management, so climate change adaptation will primarily
be the responsibility of the federal Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO). The federal government will need
to adapt its fisheries management policies to accommodate climate change. This will happen in a number of ways
through adaptive management practices that optimize short-term gains but manage for the future, which may include
alternative ways of managing existing fisheries (e.g., identifying hatchery locations appropriate in future climate
scenarios, and adjusting quotas and tenures to reflect anticipated changes to fish stocks and flows in future climate
scenarios) and also looking for new fishery opportunities that may emerge with a changing climate.
The B.C. Ministry of Agriculture Marine Fisheries and Seafood policy unit is responsible for:
1. Maintaining and enhancing the role of the Province of B.C. as an influential and credible partner in aquaculture,
and commercial and recreational fisheries management
2. Policy and intergovernmental relations
3. Investment in program partnerships, design and delivery
4. Intergovernmental agreements and processes
The ADAPTool assessment process is described further below. In summary, the process consisted of defining climate
change impacts, conducting an assessment of the sector’s vulnerabilities to those impacts, describing adaptation
actions that respond to these vulnerabilities and scoring the policy unit’s work on its ability to support both these
anticipated adaptation responses and any unanticipated vulnerabilities and associated responses.
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In the ADAPTool policy assessment interview, the discussion repeatedly returned to the limitations of this group’s
jurisdiction. While almost every adaptation action was relevant to the program area, and there were many adaptation
actions where the unit is able to provide indirect support, the actions for which the unit has direct influence or a direct
effect were limited.
1.1 BC Climate Adaptation Strategy
In 2010 the B.C. government released its climate change adaptation strategy.1 The strategy has three key goals for
provincial government agencies:
1. Building a strong foundation of knowledge by:
• Engaging with research institutions to ensure they produce the scientific information needed by decisionmakers
• Developing adaptation planning tools for decision-makers
• Continuing knowledge transfer and outreach activities
2. Making adaptation part of government’s business by:
• Incorporating adaptation into service plans and business planning
• Integrating adaptation into government policies, legislation and regulations
• Strengthening cross-government coordination and work with partners outside government
3. Assessing risks and implementing priority adaptation actions in sectors sensitive to climate change, such as
agriculture.
1.2 Goals
For the B.C. government, the purpose of the ADAPTool pilot is to help mainstream climate change adaptation into
existing and proposed policies, programs and regulations. There are two main objectives:
1. To identify existing policies and programs that are particularly well-suited for supporting adaptation efforts, to
show potential gaps and to identify ways to address gaps or further strengthen programs.
2. To understand the adaptability of existing policies or programs and their ability to adjust as the anticipated and
unanticipated impacts of climate change unfold.
Preparing for Climate Change: British Columbia’s Adaptation Strategy is available at:
http://www.livesmartbc.ca/attachments/Adaptation_Strategy.pdf
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2.0 What is Adaptive Policy/Programming?
Over the past several decades, there has been growing recognition that public policies2 intended to achieve stated
objectives can, even if well-designed, lead to unintended consequences as conditions change (Swanson et al., 2010).
Public policy operates in a dynamic and complex adaptive system. Work in the policy domain includes new external
factors, changing economic and market conditions, new information, changing technology and evolving networks
of exchange. Public policy is part of this complex adaptive system, but does not control it. With increased global
interconnection, dynamic economic conditions, shifting climate and rapid changes in technologies, the resulting
complexity and pace of change make outcomes difficult to anticipate. As conditions change, policies may become less
effective for their originally intended purposes or may have unintended side effects. Ideally, policy-makers would want
their policies to be adaptive to avoid policy failures.
IISD collaborated with The Energy Research Institute (TERI) in India on a four-year research project that explored case
studies of policies in the agriculture and natural resource management sectors in India and Canada. In these studies, they
identified characteristics of adaptive policies based on evidence of their actual performance. The results are described in
the book Creating Adaptive Policies: A Guide for Policy-Making in an Uncertain World (Swanson & Bhadwal, 2009).
This research identified seven policy characteristics that were adaptable to changing conditions. Some of these
characteristics are designed to build in adaptability to anticipated change and projected future conditions, while others
are useful in helping policies adapt to unanticipated conditions. The ADAPTool version used in this pilot project is
structured around these seven characteristics. Different questions in the tool are used to assess and score policies in
relation to these factors. The seven characteristics are: 1) integrated and forward-looking analysis, 2) multistakeholder
deliberation, 3) automatic policy adjustment, 4) self-organization and social networking, 5) decentralization of
decision-making, 6) promoting variation and 7) formal policy review and continuous learning.
3.0 Scope of the Policy Analysis
This analysis examines the adaptability of the ministry’s policies and programs in the fisheries and seafood sector in
relation to climate change, as well as the extent to which they support adaptive actions likely to be taken in the sector.
Because the fisheries and seafood sector is very different than the subsectors of the agriculture industry, with different
impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation actions, the assessment was conducted separately from the assessments of
agricultural programs.
For the purposes of this document, there is no distinction made between policy, program, strategy and initiative. The terms are used
interchangeably.
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4.0 Climate Change Stressors and Impacts
The primary climate change stressors of interest for the marine fisheries and seafood sector were: changes in
oceanographic conditions (upwelling, currents), ocean acidification, sea-level rise, increased storms and rainfall,
changes to hydrology, freshwater-temperature rise and changes to the hydrograph (snowpack). It is important for
climate change adaptation that programming and policy related to marine fisheries and seafood supports, rather than
hinders, adaptive capacity. It is important to note that the following are highly simplified summaries of the climate
change stressors and are based on climate model predictions. This report is not primarily about the impacts of climate
change on fisheries; the short summaries below, as well as impacts and potential adaptations, are based on information
from other sources.3
4.1 Changes in Oceanographic Conditions
Freshwater input to the ocean changes the salinity, and hence the density, of seawater. Thus, changes in the hydrological
cycle can change the density-driven (“thermohaline”) ocean circulation and its feedback on climate. This circulation
has a substantial impact on surface temperature, precipitation and sea level.
4.2 Ocean Acidification
Ocean acidification is the process whereby carbon dioxide (CO2) is absorbed from the atmosphere into the oceans,
causing a shift in its carbonate chemistry and resulting in an increase of hydrogen ions (H+) and a decrease in carbonate
ions (CO32-) in seawater. Recent models predict that by 2100, oceanic pH could decrease by an additional 0.6 units
(Illyina, Zeebe, Maier-Reimer & Heinze, 2009). Changes in ocean chemistry due to elevated CO2 directly affect the
ability of marine organisms to form shell material (integral to their survival), due to lowered saturation indices for both
calcite and aragonite. The increase in available carbon in the ocean will also mean that macroalgae can photosynthesize
and grow at a faster rate. This will further affect reefs and food webs (International Geosphere-Biosphere Program,
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission & Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research, 2013).
4.3 Sea-Level Rise
Sea levels are expected to rise up to 80 centimetres in Nanaimo and up to 120 centimetres in the Fraser Delta by 2100
(Ministry of the Environment, 2013). This would have a number of impacts, including dike breaching and increased
saltwater intrusion into current freshwater systems, which would affect spawning grounds and species’ life cycles.
Sea-level rise may also potentially create more available habitat space for macroalgae to grow, as more land area will
be inundated with water.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency provides information about climate change, projections and impacts at the agency’s website:
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html. For further information about climate change stressors, impacts, vulnerabilities and
adaptation, see the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment report: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/
wg2/en/contents.html. For information about climate stressors and impacts on marine fisheries, see Okey et al. (2012).
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4.4 Increased Storms and Rainfall
The predicted increase in the frequency of severe weather events such as cyclones, storms and floods will bring an
influx of nutrients into the marine ecosystem, which will affect the growth and reproduction of some species. Cyclones
and storms can also destroy habitats like reefs and kelp forests. An increase in storm frequency would also result in
shorter windows of moderate weather during which these sensitive habitats could recover.
4.5 Changes to Hydrology
Climate warming observed over the past several decades is consistently associated with changes in a number of
components of the hydrological cycle and hydrological systems, such as: changing precipitation patterns, increased
intensity and extremes, widespread melting of snow and ice, increased atmospheric water vapour, increased
evaporation, and changes in soil moisture and runoff. These changes will all affect fish habitats.4
4.6 Freshwater/Seawater-Temperature Rise
The average global temperature has risen by about 0.6°C over the past century. In the oceans, the temperature change
has been about 0.1°C. This warming has occurred from the surface to a depth of about 700 metres, where most marine
life thrives (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], 2007).5 Areas of B.C.’s waters have been warming at
a rate more than twice the global average (LiveSmartBC, n.d.). Rising sea temperatures in any particular location will
affect the distribution of species and potential migration routes. Changes in temperatures could also lead to changes
in the life cycles of these species, and, although there is limited available evidence on this topic, the consequences of
these changes could affect food webs. Globally, organisms predicted to be most vulnerable to temperature change
are coral and krill. Krill are an extremely important link at the lower levels of the food chain. Research has shown
that krill reproduce in significantly smaller numbers when ocean temperatures rise. This can have a cascading effect
by disrupting trophic-level interactions, which would result in food shortages for higher predators, for example, by
disrupting the life cycle of the many small fish that eat krill eaters (National Geographic, 2013).
There is still substantial uncertainty about trends in hydrological variables because of large regional differences, and because of limitations
in the spatial and temporal coverage of monitoring networks. Evaporative demand, or “potential evaporation”, is projected to increase almost
everywhere. This is because the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases with higher temperatures, but relative humidity is not
projected to change markedly. The water vapour deficit in the atmosphere increases as a result, as does the evaporation rate.
5
IPCC AR4 WG1 2007 Section 5: Executive Summary
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4.7 Changes to the Hydrograph (Flow of Waters)
Glacier and ice cap reduction could affect the flow of rivers, affecting fish habitat. The cryosphere (consisting of snow,
ice and frozen ground) on land stores about 75 per cent of the world’s freshwater (IPCC, 2007). In the climate system,
the cryosphere and its changes are intricately linked to the surface energy budget, the water cycle and sea-level
change.6 Snow cover has decreased in most regions, especially in spring and summer. Degradation of permafrost and
seasonally frozen ground is leading to changes in land surface characteristics and drainage systems. Freeze-up and
break-up dates for river and lake ice are also changing. The changes in temperature and stream flow are likely to mean
more favourable conditions for some species and less favourable conditions for others, in different reaches of any given
river basin. A major issue for B.C. is the potential vulnerability of late-season salmon runs in the Fraser Basin, which will
be affected both by declining flow rates and warmer water temperatures.
The surface energy budget is how much sunlight the land, oceans and atmosphere absorb, and how much heat the planet radiates back to space.
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5.0 Jurisdiction
Provincial jurisdiction as it relates to fisheries and seafood includes jurisdiction over the management of fish and
fisheries in non-tidal waters, including inland waters, beds of watercourses or shorelines (this jurisdiction is shared
between the Ministry of Environment; the Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations [FLNRO];
and the Ministry of Agriculture).7 Canada’s provinces cannot make regulatory decisions concerning fish habitat. The
provincial government licenses marine plant cultivation and issues tenures where operations take place on Crown land,
licences for fish processing, buying and vending, oversees marketing and industry development, and maintains the
mandate to protect the provincial public interest in sustainable fisheries and aquaculture development.
The ministry’s marine fisheries and seafood policy group is involved in setting overarching policy in the areas of
provincial jurisdiction and interests.
The federal Fisheries Act applies to all fishing zones, territorial seas and inland waters of Canada. The DFO is responsible
for developing and implementing policies and programs in support of Canada’s economic, ecological and scientific
interests in oceans and inland waters. A driving force behind this mandate is the DFO’s Sustainable Fisheries Framework
which focuses on conservation and sustainable use of Canada’s fisheries resources while providing safe, effective and
environmentally sound marine services that are responsive to the needs of Canadians in a global economy.8
The Ministry of Agriculture is responsible for the overall leadership of provincial government strategies and initiatives related to ocean resources
and marine fisheries, as well as seafood industry development. The FLNRO Fish and Wildlife Branch establishes legislation, policies and procedures
for managing freshwater fishing activities, and for the allocation of fish resources for recreational and commercial use. The goal of the provincial
Freshwater Fisheries Program is to conserve the natural diversity of fish and fish habitat and to sustainably manage freshwater sport fishing in B.C.
The province exercises delegated authority under the federal Fisheries Act for the management of non-salmon freshwater fisheries.
8
More information can be found at the DFO website: http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fm-gp/peches-fisheries/fish-ren-peche/sff-cpd/overview-cadre-eng.htm
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6.0 Vulnerability Analysis
Five fishery subsectors were selected for the analysis, and the following list of vulnerabilities was identified through a
combination of background research and expert input from the unit. A draft vulnerability analysis was presented to five
individuals from the Marine Fisheries and Seafood policy unit in a meeting and the table was revised.9 Table 1 should
not be considered exhaustive, as the inclusion of the marine fisheries and seafood unit in the B.C. pilot of the ADAPTool
was experimental.
TABLE 1: VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
FISHERIES SUBSECTOR
VULNERABILITY
Shellfish
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Reduction in commercially valuable species
Decrease in calcification rate
Changes to habitat
Changes in shellfish distribution
Lack of hatcheries in B.C. to source product
Declining harvests and revenues
Changes to species life cycles and food webs
Changes to reproductive cycles
Capacity of species of commercial value to adapt
Compression of intertidal level
Marine Plants
• Increase in production of some species of macro algae (kelp)
Anadromous Species
• Reduction of yield
• Increase in freshwater temperatures will reduce recruitment rates; increase in variability of
fisheries
• Changes to distribution of fisheries
• Reduction in profitability
• Vulnerability of infrastructure and communities to flooding, sea-level rise and storm surges
• Increase in dangers of fishing
• Changes in allocation will hit commercial fisheries first
• Extinction of some salmon species or runs
Non-Anadromous Species
•
•
•
•
•
•
Aquaculture
• Changes to water quality conditions in ocean
• Increase in variability could increase costs
All/General
• Climate change impacts are compounded by marketing challenges
Reduction of yields
Increase in variability of fisheries abundance
Changes in distribution of fisheries
Reduction in profitability
Increase in dangers of fishing
Changes in fisheries species
The vulnerability analysis also identified anticipated adaptation actions to be taken by the sector in response to each of
the vulnerabilities listed above. These are shown in Table 2.
The “rapid vulnerability assessment” was conducted with the marine fisheries and seafood group on March 20, 2013, led by report author
Samantha Charlton. Background information was provided to the group on March 15, 2013 (meeting invitation sent by Samantha Charlton).
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TABLE 2: ANTICIPATED CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITIES BY FISHERIES SUBSECTOR AREA AND
CORRESPONDING ANTICIPATED ADAPTATION ACTIONS.
SHELLFISH
Vulnerability
Potential Adaptation Action
Reduction in commercially valuable species
Access higher value markets/shifting targeted species
Decrease in calcification rate
Shift to more abundant or acidification-resistant species
Changes to habitat
Employ geographic separation of hatcheries
Changes in shellfish distribution
Build shellfish hatcheries
No hatcheries in B.C. to source product
Have species cultured
Declining harvests and fisheries revenues
Access higher-value markets/shift targeted species
Changes to species life cycles and food webs
Shifts in production
Changes to reproductive cycle
Increase the flexibility and shorten the assessment phase of
emerging fisheries development to access new opportunities
Capacity of species of commercial value to adapt
Increase the flexibility and shorten the assessment phase
of new emerging fisheries development to access new
opportunities
Compression of the intertidal level means compression of
shellfish growing area and sea-level rise flooding means
upland owners will harden the shoreline with infrastructure
(i.e., retaining walls and diking)
Reduce intertidal growing areas in the south coast of British
Columbia, increasing the availability (tenures) of intertidal
growing areas in other more remote locations
MARINE PLANTS
Vulnerability
Potential Adaptation Action
Increase the production of some species of macro algae
Desire for increased marine plant harvest licences and product
development
ANADROMOUS SPECIES
Vulnerability
Potential Adaptation Action
Reduction of yield
Access higher-value markets
Increase in freshwater temperatures will reduce recruitment
rates for anadromous fish (salmon)
Build hatcheries and captive brood stock programs, increase
aquaculture production of salmon
Increase in variability of fisheries
Diversify livelihood portfolio
Changes to distribution of fisheries (including pole-ward shift
of some species ranges)
Reduction in profitability
Migrate fishing efforts/strategies
Migrate processing/distribution facilities
Diversifying into other species
Exit the fishery or focus on other ways to maintain profits
Add new or improved physical flood and coastal defences
Vulnerability of infrastructure and communities to flooding,
sea-level rise and storm surges
Managed retreat/accommodation
Rehabilitate infrastructure, design disaster response
Set up early warning systems, education
Increase in dangers of fishing
Invest in improved vessel stability, safety and communications
Changes in allocation will hit commercial fishery first
Fishers will seek compensation
Extinction of some salmon species or runs
Exit the fishery
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NON-ANADROMOUS SPECIES
Vulnerability
Potential Adaptation Action
Access higher-value markets
Shift targeted species
Increase effort or fishing power
Reduce costs to increase efficiency
Reduction of yield
Diversify livelihoods
Exit the fishery
Obtain multiple licences
Processors: source material from other jurisdictions
Diversify livelihood portfolio
Increase in variability of fisheries
Engage with insurance schemes
Changes in distribution of fisheries (including pole-ward shift
of species ranges)
Reduction in profitability
Migrate fishing efforts/strategies
Migrate processing/distribution facilities
Diversify into other species
Exit the fishery or focus on other ways to maintain profits
Vulnerability of infrastructure and communities to flooding,
sea-level rise and storm surges
Add new or improved physical flood and coastal defences
Managed retreat/accommodation
Rehabilitate infrastructure, design disaster response
Set up early-warning systems, education
Increase in dangers of fishing
Invest in improved vessel stability, safety and communications
Changes in fisheries species
Increase the flexibility and shorten the assessment phase of
new fisheries development to access new opportunities
AQUACULTURE
Vulnerability
Potential Adaptation Action
Change location of operation
Farm different species
Changes in water quality conditions in ocean
Increase control and management of environment
Buy tenures elsewhere
Use waste energy from other sources to cut costs
Increase in costs due to increased variability
Locate in urban areas or close to airports to cut transportation costs
ALL / GENERAL
Vulnerability
Climate change impacts compounded by marketing challenges
Potential Adaptation Action
Switch to aquaculture for more control over environmental
conditions
Access different markets
Change product type
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7.0 Results of Adaptability Assessment
7.1 Summary of Results
The Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program scores 1 out of 2 for overall adaptive capacity. The program ranks a moderate
4 out of 10 points in its ability to support the sector’s anticipated adaptation needs. It also ranks a moderate 5 out of
10 in its ability to enable sector responses to unanticipated events. Scores for each program characteristic range from
0 to 2. Low scores are flagged red, indicating that the suite of policies does not contribute to planned and autonomous
adaptability. High scores are flagged green and indicate that the program is contributing to adaptation needs. Scores
in between are flagged yellow, signifying partial contribution to overall adaptability. The scoring is shown in Table 3.
TABLE 3: ADAPTIVE POLICY/PROGRAM ASSESSMENT QUESTIONS
ADAPTIVE POLICY QUESTIONS
Ability to Support Anticipated
Adaptation Needs (Planned
Adaptability)
SCORES* COMMENTS
4
Total Score (score out of 10)
Are anticipated adaptation actions
supported by the program?
1
Because fisheries are mostly in the federal jurisdiction and also involve other
B.C. ministries, such as the Ministry of Environment, the program assessed
is primarily limited to an influencing role on adaptation actions and does not
offer direct support.
Is the program itself vulnerable to
the stressor?
0
The program is vulnerable in terms of resourcing relative to needs. Anything
that changes the number, distribution and species mix of fish in the ocean
affects this program area.
Can the existing program enhance
the capacity of participants in
each subsector to undertake the
anticipated adaptation actions?
1
The program links people to resources, equating to indirect support. The
program directly supports people with access to relevant technology, access
to relevant information and skills, and access to institutions and networks.
The program has no role in access to infrastructure; it has an indirect role in
ensuring equitable access to resources. In total, the score for these different
types of support averages to a 1.
Was multistakeholder deliberation
used in the design of the program?
1
Since the “program” is essentially a suite of activities that inform and build
policy, multiple stakeholders are constantly engaged and involved.
Does the program have a regular
formal policy review?
1
The program is often evaluated informally. At the time of the interview (April
2013) it was undergoing its first formal review in 30 years.
Policy’s Ability to Enable Sector
Responses to Unanticipated Events
(Autonomous Adaptability)
5
Total Score (score out of 10)
Is multistakeholder deliberation
used in the implementation of the
policy/program?
1
Licensing formed through this program is formed with multistakeholder
deliberation.
Does the program enable selforganization and social networking?
1
The policy group has been involved intermittently in social networking
projects and in an advisory capacity to fisher-organized associations.
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Is decision making for program
implementation adequately
decentralized?
1
Although the decision-makers are very centralized, this program makes use
of networks in order to be extremely inclusive.
Is there adequate variety in the suite
of policies and programs directed at
the policy issue?
1
Two types of policy instruments are utilized. (See Additional Analysis below).
Do the policies have a regular formal
policy review?
1
The program is often evaluated informally. At the time of the interview (April
2013) it was undergoing its first formal review in 30 years.
Overall Adaptive Policy
1
Average of all Scores
* Scores range from 0 to 2. High scores are flagged green and indicate the program is contributing to adaptation needs. Low scores are flagged red,
indicating that the program is not contributing to planned and autonomous adaptability. Scores in between are flagged yellow, signifying partial
contribution to adaptability.
7.2 Direct Adaptation Support
Potential adaptation actions that are directly supported by the work of this group are:
• A shift to more abundant or acidification-resistant species (sector: shellfish; vulnerability: decrease in
calcification rate).
• Increasing the flexibility and shortening the assessment phase of new fisheries development to access new
opportunities in both shellfish and non-anadromous commercial species (sector: shellfish; vulnerabilities:
changes to reproductive cycle and capacity of species of commercial value to adapt; sector: non-anadromous
species; vulnerability: changes in fisheries species [e.g., possible increase in anchovies, Albacore, sardines]).
• Accessing higher-value markets. The group works on trade policy negotiations. This action also involves the
ministry’s agriculture market development group (sector: anadromous species; vulnerability: reduced yields).
The adaptive capacity analysis in the table above (which informed the question: Can the existing program enhance the
capacity of participants within each sector to undertake the anticipated adaptation actions?) shows that programs of this
type that work with the industry may provide significant support in directing operators (commercial, recreational and
sport/tourism fisheries) to relevant resources to build their capacity (e.g., sources of financing, new technologies,
improved infrastructure, networks). The Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program may consider ways to increase its
contribution to adaptive capacity in the lower-scoring categories shown in Table 4.
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TABLE 4: CONTRIBUTION TO ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
CONTRIBUTION TO ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
SCORES* COMMENTS
Access to financial resources
1
One of the program’s activities is to link people to financial
resources.
Access to relevant technology
2
This is the role of one of the industry specialists on the team.
Access to relevant information and skills
2
This is the role of one of the industry specialists on the team. This
also relates to the work done with the market-development group.
Access to relevant infrastructure
0
The program does not provide access to infrastructure.
Access to institutions and networks
2
The role of one of the team members is focused on building
relationships and providing advice. Clients count on the group to
get access to different institutions.
Equitable distribution of resources
1
One of the lenses through which the group looks at most of
the policies that they are trying to influence is whether there is
equitable distribution.
*2 – yes; 1 – partially; 0 – no (based on Smit & Pilisofova, 2001)
Another question from the analysis asks: Is there adequate variety in the suite of policies and programs directed at the
policy issue? This question addresses the adaptive characteristic of diversity. The following list indicates types of policy
instruments. It is important to note that not all of these instruments are available to the Marine Fisheries and Seafood
policy group.
1) Regulation and licensing
2) Economic support to operators (insurance, subsidies, income stabilization)
3) Institutional support (networks of operators, input providers, marketing)
4) Research and information
The Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program’s resources are only applied to institutional tools, and research and
information tools. Since the portfolio of policy instruments is not diverse, it scores 1 and is considered to be somewhat
adaptive. Diversifying into other types of policy and programmatic tools would raise the overall adaptive capacity of
the program.
In comparison to other Ministry of Agriculture programs, the Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program is limited in
both its own ability to adapt and its support for sectoral adaptation. This is because: 1) it has limited jurisdiction and
authority, 2) it is small and has few resources relative to likely increases in demand generated by climate change and 3)
it has limited policy and programming tools in its portfolio with which to influence sector activities or mitigate climate
impacts. The pace of change in this sector is likely to increase as a result of changes to habitat and to markets and
technology. Climate change will exacerbate stresses on operators and challenge the industry to adapt quickly. Due
to high vulnerability to climate change, limited jurisdiction and limited resources, this program is less adaptable than
many of the others assessed by the B.C. Ministry of Agriculture.
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7.3 Indirect Adaptation Support
The Marine Fisheries and Seafood Program has an indirect role in the majority of anticipated adaptation actions listed
in Table 3. Although most of the identified actions are in the jurisdiction of the DFO, the Marine Fisheries and Seafood
policy group exerts an influence over DFO policy to varying degrees, depending on the adaptation action. Similarly, in
the case of the anticipated adaptation actions that are primarily business decisions by the private sector, the group can
indirectly influence and support decision making through its industry specialist role.
In the ADAPTool assessment process, interviewees referred to a number of examples that illustrate indirect adaptation support:
• The group indirectly supported the building of shellfish hatcheries and broodstock programs through helping to
obtain funding, participating in planning and obtaining land access.
• The group indirectly influences DFO policy related to the adaptation actions of: shifting production, diversifying
livelihood portfolios, diversifying into other species, migrating fishing efforts/strategies, and increasing fishing
effort and power.
• Through activities such as writing letters of support, the group has served a supporting role in adaptation
actions that reduce costs and increase efficiencies (e.g., through electronic monitoring of the crab fleet or 100
per cent monitoring of the groundfish industry at sea).
• In relation to processing, the group played a supporting role in the adaptation actions by sourcing material
from other jurisdictions (e.g., salmon from Alaska) and fishers obtaining multiple licences (DFO jurisdiction) to
respond to the migration of processing facilities and a multitude of effects on processing inputs.
• Also related to processing, the group is looking at the idea of licensing processing at sea, which indirectly
supports the adaptation action to migrate processing and distribution facilities.
• The DFO has final authority in the aquaculture sector, but this group has a strong influencing role as the leading
group for aquaculture policy in the province. Adaptation actions may involve changes to tenures, locations of
operations and species.
7.4 Lessons Learned in the Fisheries and Seafood Application of the ADAPTool
The interviewees indicated that that the ADAPTool process provided a useful opportunity to consider how fisheries
could be managed by the DFO in response to climate change stressors. The tool allowed participants to think about the
impacts of the policies within which they work, and also to consider how their team might support and/or affect DFO’s
management practices in light of climate change.
The tool worked well to prompt discussion and awareness of key climate change impacts to the sector, likely adaptation
actions and the program’s ability to support or hinder these adaptation actions. The initial rapid assessment involved
five individuals, who together comprised almost the entire program group. The discussion and vulnerability assessment
that resulted from that meeting was informative for the group and for the assessors. The program assessment was
carried out with two interviewers and two interviewees, who were part of the larger group that participated in the
rapid assessment. The program assessment allowed the interviewees to reflect on their past, current and potential
role in relation to the list of 54 adaptation actions. Scores were given based primarily on current involvement, but the
associated commentary also captured where there had historically been a greater potential to support adaptation
actions. The discussion repeatedly returned to the limitations of the group’s jurisdiction: while almost every adaptation
action is relevant to the program area, there are few actions for which the group has a direct influence or effect.
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8.0 Summary and Conclusions
• The pace of change in this sector is likely to increase as a result of changes to habitat, markets and technology.
Climate change will exacerbate stresses on operators and challenge the industry to adapt quickly.
• The program provides a moderate level of support for both anticipated adaptation needs and sectoral responses
to unanticipated events.
• The program itself is vulnerable to climate change, in the sense that it has limited resources, but climate change
will potentially have a very significant effect on the number, distribution and species mix of fish in the sea—all
of which affect this program area.
• The program’s resources are applied primarily to institutional tools (supporting networks of operators,
input providers, marketing), and, to some degree, research and information tools. Contributing to research
and information tools focused on climate change adaptation, and/or diversifying into other types of policy/
programmatic tools (such as infrastructure support), would raise the overall adaptive capacity of the program.
• In comparison to other Ministry of Agriculture programs, the fisheries and seafood program is limited in both
its own ability to adapt and its support for sectoral adaptation. This is because: 1) the ministry has limited
jurisdiction and authority in this area, 2) the program is small relative to likely increases in demand generated
by climate change and 3) the program has limited policy and programming tools in its portfolio with which to
influence sector activities or mitigate climate impacts.
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Published by the International Institute for Sustainable Development.
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