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Advocates for a Wild, Healthy Ocean 1300 19th Street NW 8th Floor Washington, DC 20036 202.429.5609 Telephone 202.872.0619 Facsimile www.oceanconservancy.org Global Climate Change and the Ocean – The Scientific Basis Impacts on the Ocean Environment Climate change is a significant threat to ocean ecosystems world-wide. There is unequivocal evidence and scientific consensus that climate change is occurring at an unprecedented rate and that anthropogenic activity is a major driver (IPCC 2007). Ecological processes and interactions will be altered in response to the physical parameters of climate change (IPCC 2007, Parmesan 2006). The ability of marine species to adapt to environmental change is largely unknown. A recent study investigated the ability of mammals to evolve with current levels of environmental change associated with climate change and they determined that the current rates of climate change are much too fast for mammals to adapt; instead, extinctions are more likely to be accelerated (Barnosky and Kraatz 2007. While there may be some species that benefit from climate change, highly vulnerable species that will be negatively impacted by climate change include those species dependent upon extent of sea ice and small isolated populations (e.g., ocean mammals, Simmonds and Isaac 2007) and those with narrow temperature ranges or dependent on calcium carbonate structures (e.g., coral and coral-dependent species, Parmesan 2006). Climate change is a pressing ocean issue. The oceans play an important role in the planet’s carbon cycle by absorbing large volumes of carbon dioxide and recycling it through various processes. This carbon dioxide exchange is largely controlled by circulation, sea surface temperatures, and biological processes such as photosynthesis and respiration by plankton which use carbon in the ocean in a similar manner to plants on land. Many long-term changes in climate have been documented across the oceans and affect its near-shore and offshore inhabitants. These include increased arctic temperatures and less ice cover, precipitation extremes, decreased ocean salinity, increased ocean acidity, shifting current patterns, amplified extreme events (e.g., droughts, precipitation, heat waves) and changes in marine biodiversity and population size, movement and phenology (IPCC 2007). Climate Change Linked to Human Activity Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have markedly increased since 1850 as a result of human activity (IPCC 2007) (Figure 1). The 35% increase in CO2 over this period is primarily due to fossil fuel use and changes in land-use patterns (IPCC 2007). Human-driven increases in greenhouse gases have resulted in significant concomitant increases in atmospheric and oceanic temperatures and a significant warming trend over the past 30 years (IPCC 2007) (Figure 2). Even if carbon emissions are substantially reduced, CO2 levels in the oceans will continue to increase for decades (IPCC 2007). Atmospheric CO2 levels are accelerating at rates greater than predicted because of increased carbon 1 dioxide emissions and declining carbon dioxide sinks; all of which contribute to hastened climate forcing, such as melting of polar ice and ocean acidification (Canadell et al. in press). Figure 1. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide from 1000 AD to the early 1800s were relatively stable. Atmospheric CO2 has increased exponentially because of human activity since the industrial revolution around 1850. The area enlarged within the inset is the CO2 data samples taken and made famous by Charles Keeling at Mauna Loa, Hawaii (Sarmiento and Gruber 2002). Figure 2. There has been an increase in global surface warming and if CO2 atmospheric concentrations are not reduced substantially, global temperatures will only increase further. The average global surface warming (in degrees Celsius) observed since 1900 are to the left of the perpendicular line with the projected warming from the year 2000 to 2100 to the right of the line for different emission scenarios. Emission scenarios range for rapid economic growth (e.g. A1B) to ones that envision reductions in energy use (e.g. B2), and, for comparison, scenarios based on constant emissions. Shading denotes the ±1 standard deviation range around the annual averages. (IPCC 2007). Ocean Warming The ocean drives earth’s climate and is 2 one of the first, and often unnoticed, casualties of increased emissions of greenhouse gases. Over 80% of the excess heat produced by the greenhouse effect has been absorbed by the ocean, as evidenced by a rise in global ocean temperatures of 0.1 degrees Celsius in the upper 700m between 1961 and 2003 (IPCC 2007) (Figure 3). While this may seem like a relatively small number, physiologically and ecologically, this number has significant effects on ocean organisms (Figure 4). Rising ocean temperatures will result in a cascade of physical and ecological effects. Water temperature is an important determinant of physiological function of ocean organisms, and is, ultimately, an important feature of distribution and ranges of species and habitats. Even more alarming is a widening tropical belt and the poleward movement of large-scale climate systems (e.g., jet streams and storm tracks), which could have profound effects on ocean circulation and all ocean ecosystems and organisms (Seidel et al. in press). Figure 3. Global ocean heat content (0 – 700m depth) has been increasing in time. The different colored lines, which represent independent analyses of oceanographic data, show a strong agreement on the trend. The gray shading shows the 90% range for the black line. (modified from IPCC 2007) Figure 4. Vast changes are predicted across the globe for just an increase of one degree Celsius. The predicted changes are amplified as global mean annual temperature increases (IPCC 2007). It is important to note that widespread coral mortality is predicted with temperature increases of only 3 degrees Celsius; coral reefs around the world have already experienced significant 3 coral mortality between 1980 and 1999. Shrinking Sea Ice Arctic sea ice is shrinking and is expected to disappear during the summer melting period as early as the middle of this century. The end of the summer melting period is the smallest extent of the Arctic ice cap during a year and has been a point of reference that scientists use to make year to year comparisons. This disappearance will have potentially devastating consequences for ice-dependent species such as seals, walrus, polar bears, and some whales. IPCC (2007) models project that the Arctic Ocean at the end of its summer-melting period may be ice free as early as 2050 (Figure 5). However, recent observations indicate a more rapid loss of ice, perhaps signaling a quicker onset of ecosystem effects and possibly indicating that current models are too conservative (Figure 5 and 6). Scientists from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) found that Arctic sea ice is melting faster than models have projected (Stroeve et al. 2007). All models in the fourth assessment of the IPCC show a declining September Arctic ice cover/extent (end of melt season) from 1953-2006 of 2.5% per decade (average across all models). However, few if any of the models fit actual observations – 7.8% per decade. Ice loss may accelerate if sea ice thins (Serreze et al. 2007), an alarming concern given that Nghiem et al. (2007) determined that perennial ice that persists from year to year (that is, usually older and thicker) has already been declining. Researchers at the National Snow and Ice Data Center think, based on modeling simulations, that there may be a tipping point where sea ice loss will occur very quickly and could be disappeared by 2040 (Holland et al. 2006). Scientists are concerned that the drop in ice in 2007 could indicate we may have reached this tipping point (see drop in Figure 5). Figure 5. The observed rate of sea ice decline has been occurring at a much faster rate than predicted by even the most ‘pessimistic’ of all the IPCC models. The colored lines represent the various IPCC models predictions of sea ice extent at its minima. The black line is the averaged predicted extent of sea ice incorporating all the models; dashed black lines show the . . ±1 standard deviation range. The thick red line represents the actual observations of the September sea ice extent, when the Arctic ice pack is at its smallest area during the year, with the pink extension showing the precipitous drop in sea ice extent in 2007 alone. (National Snow and Ice Data Center) 4 Figure 6. The extent of sea ice loss is difficult to imagine, but a visual representation gives you a better idea from familiar reference frames, the continental United States and the European continent. The areas in red represent the extent of sea ice loss that occurred in 2005 (second row) relative to its extent from 1980 (first row) and the pink area is the additional loss observed in 2007 (third row). (National Snow and Ice Data Center) Climate change effects in Polar Regions are expected to be among the largest and most rapid of any regions on the Earth, and will cause major physical, ecological, sociological, and economic impacts, especially in the Arctic. Ice-associated marine algae and amphipods provide the base of a productive food web that includes arctic cod, sea birds, ice seals, whales, polar bears, and arctic foxes. Loss of sea ice may lead to the local loss or even extinction of those species unable to adapt fast enough to the massive alteration of the food web that will occur with the loss of sea ice (Figure 7). Drastic ecosystem change may affect biodiversity, economies, and indigenous lifestyles. Figure 7. Some examples of the ocean wildlife that have adapted to the unique ecosystem provided by sea ice in the Arctic that will be affected by loss of sea ice: ivory gulls, polar bears, bearded seals, and walrus (NOAA). 5 The loss of sea ice is already projected to severely impact polar bears (USGS 2007). Population growth rates in two subpopulations of polar bears were related to sea ice declines. It is projected that given the current conservative estimates of sea ice loss projected by the IPCC (2007), two-thirds of the world’s polar bear population will be lost by the middle of the 21st century. Loss of sea ice in the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas will impact ice-dependent ocean wildlife (e.g., ringed seals, spotted seals, ribbon seals, bearded seals, walrus). Sea ice provides habitat for ocean wildlife, such as ringed seals. These seals have a close association with sea ice and their livelihood has evolved to be highly dependent upon this substrate for resting, pupping and mating, molting, and feeding. Ringed seals excavate caves (lairs) under the snow on stable sea ice, where they give birth to and raise their pups. The snow caves offer protection from weather and predators. Increased temperature and loss of protective covering will increase the vulnerability of ringed seals to predation (Kelly 2001). It is unknown whether the loss of sea ice will maintain the high levels of productivity observed in the arctic, especially of important prey species such as arctic cod (Tynan and DeMaster 1997). Ice seals feed on a variety of invertebrates and fishes and they in turn are major components of polar bear diets. The loss of sea ice associated with global warming will have serious impacts on these ice-dependent mammals (Kelly 2001, Tynan and DeMaster 1997). Sea ice provides habitat for photosynthetic algae and nursery for invertebrates and fish and its loss could be deleterious for these species with potential effects reverberated throughout the productive polar ecosystem. As ice melts, a shallow mixed layer forms and is important to spring blooms and productivity that supports the Arctic Ecosystem. Algae provide a food source for zooplankton, who in turn provide a source for arctic cod, important in the diets of sea birds and ocean mammals. We do not know how or if these species will be able to adapt to the level of temperature rise we are observing. Another concern for ocean species living at the extent of the poles is how they will adapt to warming temperatures. Species in the arctic are already pushed against a geographical limit; there will be no colder habitats for them to move into. Range-restricted species show more-severe range constrictions than other groups and have been the first groups in which whole species have gone extinct due to recent climate change (Parmesan 2006). Furthermore, with the retreat of sea ice, and seasonal ice-free waters, there is great potential for increased disturbance in the Arctic Ocean from increased vessel traffic (increased collision with ocean wildlife) and potential fisheries interactions (competition, bycatch) as well as offshore development (mining and gas exploration). Sea Level Rise IPCC (2007) projected that global sea level will rise by 18 to 59 cm during this century, with a negligible contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (Figure 8). Hansen et al. (2006, 2007) believe that with warming of two to three degrees Celsius, a concomitant rise in sea level of 6m (600 cm) could be expected, much greater than predicted by the IPCC, with contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Such a rise in temperature is possible (within this century) if greenhouse gas emissions, at current levels, are maintained over the next 10 years (IPCC 2007, Hansen et al. 2006, 2007). 6 Figure 8. Global mean sea level rise (in mm) has been increasing over time, and will increase significantly with a continued rise in global mean temperature. Direct measurements are not available before 1870, so the grey shaded area shows the best estimates of past sea level. The red line is the global mean sea level measurements since the inception of instrumentation. The blue shading represents projections of future sea level rise from IPCC models. (IPCC 2007) It is important to point out that the maximum estimate on this figure is far below the maximum prediction of a 6000mm, or 6 meter, rise in sea level that will occur if there is significant melt contribution from Antarctica and Greenland. Rising sea level, caused by melting polar ice-shelves and glaciers and the expansion of warming ocean water is already impacting the most low-lying coastal areas with the loss of coastal wetlands and mangroves as well as increased coastal damage from flooding (IPCC 2007). In decades to come it will continue to rise, and if unchecked could severely impact human populations, wetlands, and coastal ocean species. Sea level rise will exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards (IPCC 2007). Sea level rise will have significant impacts on those people living along the coast, changing the landscape we know today and displacing millions of residents (e.g., Figure 9, Florida). 7 Figure 9. The effects of sea level rise projected for the state of Florida. Even with a one meter rise in sea level, widespread areas of the coast will be inundated (upper right). If Antarctica and Greenland become major contributors to sea level rise, a change in six meters (lower right) would be expected with widespread changes to the Florida landscape and many implications for people living along the coast. (University of Arizona) An increase in sea level is a threat to seals, sea lions and sea turtles that haul out onto land to rest and for reproductive purposes (Figure 10). Low-lying sand and pebble beaches will no longer be available for these important yearly cycle events. For example, many islands contained within the Northwest Hawaiian Islands are low-lying and very vulnerable to increased sea level. Baker et al. (2006) simulated potential habitat loss and determined that with a maximum sea level increase of 88cm the loss varies from island to island, but with an increase of 129 cm from spring tides all land would be periodically inundated They projected that endangered Hawaiian monk seals, threatened green turtles, and endangered Laysan finch would face the greatest threats from lost habitat. The estimates used in this study are conservative relative to the reality of current levels of ice melt observed in Greenland and Antarctica. Given a maximal rise of 600 cm (Hansen et al. 2006, 2007) in sea level, much of this habitat would be lost. An increase in sea level rise will also affect other areas with low relief that are home to a diverse array of ocean species and ecosystems (e.g., mangroves, coral reefs, shore birds, nesting turtles and seabirds), including the Caribbean region and many low-lying islands in the Pacific. 8 Figure 10. Species that have adapted to unique marine habitats at risk with sea level rise: seastars in intertidal zone (Jim Clary/Marine Photobank), leatherback sea turtle hatchlings heading for the ocean (Jeff Pollin/Marine Photobank), Northern elephant seal and Hawaiian monk seal that haul out onto sandy beaches (NOAA). Ocean Acidification The oceans play an important role in the planet’s carbon cycle by absorbing large volumes of carbon dioxide and recycling it in various processes. Rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere have led to increased absorption of CO2 in the ocean where it acts as a weak acid and reduces the available level of carbonate, required by many shell-building organisms. Increased CO2 absorption has already increased the acidity of ocean surface waters by 30% (lowered its pH by about 0.1 units) since preindustrial times (IPCC 2007). Based on modeling and archaeological record, oceanic absorption of anthropogenic carbon dioxide by the end of this century will be greater than evidence from geologic record indicates has occurred in over 300 million years. While these numbers may seem small, changes in acidity are exponential in nature, for example pure water is neutral (7.0 units), sea water is considered basic (around 8.0 units), and items such as cola (~ 2.5 units), wine (~4.0 units), beer (~4.5 units), and coffee (~5.0 units) are acidic. IPCC models project that global surface pH units will decrease between 0.14 and 0.35 units over the 21st Century (IPCC 2007). These estimates by IPCC may be conservative. Other studies have estimated that increased CO2 uptake by the oceans may increase pH by 0.3 to 0.5 units (Feely et al. 2004). The combined effects of increased acidity (or, reduced pH) and carbonate ion concentration could have consequences on calcifying organisms that lie at the base of the food chain such as cocolithophores or pteropods in subarctic waters (Orr 2005, Kleypas et al. 2006, Kolbert 2006) (Figure 11). Acidification is a severe threat to calcium carbonate shell-forming plants and animals such as marine snails and corals that form and contribute to ocean productivity and coral reef communities. These organisms are 9 likely already suffering reduced growth rates, and in time acidification, if unchecked, could make ocean water so corrosive that the shells and skeletons of such organisms would begin to dissolve, leading to substantial alteration of ocean ecosystems, biodiversity and productivity. Ocean acidification reduces calcium carbonate saturation point and there have already been reductions observed in the North Pacific Ocean (Feely et al. 2004). In some areas, this could occur by the middle of the century. Detrimental impacts may ripple up the food chain, and affect species like whales and seals that feed on larger crustaceans or fish species depending on small calcifying organisms (Royal Society 2005). Figure 11. A free-swimming planktonic pteropod, Limacina helicina, that likely will be affected by an increase in acidity (decrease in pH) in the ocean. They form shells made out of aragonite (the form of calcium carbonate used by marine organisms to form shells or skeletal structures), and are an important food item for salmon, mackerel, herring and cod. (NOAA) Fragile Ecosystems – Coral Reefs Coral reefs are among our most diverse, fragile, and endangered ecosystems. Multiple anthropogenic (human) impacts act synergistically and imperil reefs’ continued existence. Overfishing, pollution, global warming and ocean acidification rank among the most important of these (Bruckner et al. 2005). Across the Caribbean, coral cover has already dropped on average by 80-90% (Gardiner et al. 2003). Around the globe, an estimated 10-25% per cent of coral reefs have already been irretrievably lost, another 50-70% may be gone by the middle of this century, and all could be lost by the end of the century. Global climate change adds the one-two punch, perhaps the knockout punch for coral reefs, of global warming and ocean acidification on top of other human impacts. Increased sea surface temperatures have greatly increased the frequency and severity of coral bleaching events, considered a major threat to reefs worldwide, and may have contributed to another global threat, coral disease outbreaks, as well. To date, because of bleaching and coral disease almost every coral community in the world has suffered coral mortality (Marshall and Schutenberg 2006) (Figure 12). 10 Figure 12. Global trend in the extent and severity of mass coral bleaching, with an increasing extent and severity of mass mortality observed since 1998, a time period with extensive and severe coral mortality. (Marshall and Schutenberg 2006). Bleaching occurs when a coral polyp expels their microscopic algal symbiont, or zooxanthellae. The zooxanthellae provides not only up to 90% of the polyps energy requirements, but also its brilliant color. The loss of the zooxanthellae leaves the polyp devoid of color and transparent, resulting in a 11 ‘beached’ color (Figure 13). Projected increases in sea surface temperature this century are expected to cause further increases in bleaching and wide-spread coral mortality (IPCC 2007) (Figure 4). Coral reefs have already experienced widespread mortality in 1998 when an estimated 16% of corals were damaged with bleaching and elevated ocean temperatures (Wilkinson 1998), and if the IPCC predicts widespread mortality with a two degree increase in temperature, the future does not look hopeful for coral reefs. Figure 13. During prolonged exposure to increased temperatures a coral polyp will lose its algal symbiont (zooxanthellae) and appear white in color. Corals may be able to recover if temperatures return to normal fairly quickly; however, if increased temperatures are prolonged, the bleaching will lead to mass mortality events. (Marshall and Shutenberg 2006). Ocean acidification has already increased the acidity (lowered the pH) of ocean waters where corals live beyond the levels within which they evolved over millions of years. This increased acidity has likely lowered coral growth rates, reduced their ability to compete with other organisms, and limited their ability to withstand predation. By the middle of this century, additional acidification will make coral environments marginal for corals with respect to their acidity and contribute to widespread coral and reef loss. By the end of the century, the situation could worsen dramatically with acidity levels approaching the point where corals could start dissolving and at which they may no longer exist as we know them. Shifting Ranges and Distribution The evidence that climate change is responsible for shifting ranges and distribution of species is mounting (IPCC 2007, Parmesan 2006). Our picture of ocean ecosystems may be dramatically transformed due to species altering their range in response to changing environmental features such as temperature, ice cover, circulation, and salinity (Harley et al. 2006). As population sizes change and 12 species shift their geographic distributions, biological communities and food webs change, with consequences for biodiversity, ecosystem function and dependent economies. It is important to note that many of these changes may not be simultaneous. Those species that are able to physically move location may do so sooner than those sessile/benthic species, resulting in reorganized ecosystems with different functional relationships Another complication arises when the timing of recurring life cycle events (e.g., migration, mating) affect other trophic levels in the same ecosystem. Edwards and Richardson (2004) provide evidence that the marine pelagic community is responding to climate change, and that responses vary by community and season, leading to a mis-match between trophic levels and functional groups. Poleward range shifts have been well documented to date, for individual species as well as for communities (Parmesan 2006). Distributions of exploited and nonexploited fishes in the North Sea responded to increased temperatures, with about 2/3 of them shifting in mean latitude and/or depth over 25 years of observations. Similar documentation has been made for zooplankton in the North Sea (Figure14). Species that shifted their distribution typically have faster life cycles and smaller body sizes relative to non-shifting species (Perry et al. 2005). In the Bering Sea changes in the biological community have occurred simultaneous with shifting atmospheric and hydrographic characteristics (Grebmeier 2006). Changes in ocean and air temperatures and reductions in sea ice have coincided with a reduction in benthic species and more favorable for pelagic communities. These changes in prey base have negatively affected higher trophic species such as seabirds and ocean wildlife populations, such as Steller sea lions. Figure 14. Changes in the mean number of zooplankton species in the North Atlantic between 1960 to 1975 and 1996 to 1999. The number of temperate species increased and the diversity of colder-temperate, sub-Arctic species and Arctic species decreased in the north Atlantic. The scale (0 to 1) indicates the mean number of species in total assemblages of zooplankton. From Beaugrand et al. 2002b. (IPCC 2007) 13 Human Impacts Coastal communities and ocean-based societies and economies will suffer substantial losses in coming decades as the effects of global warming on the oceans continue, causing extensive flooding, damaging and destroying coastal natural and built environments, reducing or shifting ocean productivity with impacts on fisheries and aquaculture, and compromising and eliminating, in some cases, historic human use of coasts and the ocean. Rising sea level is currently affecting low-lying nations, such as the Pacific island of Tuvalu, where tide water floods homes and the streets. Hunter (2002) determined that sea level rise has been 1.2 mm per year, and the country is currently examining relocation options along with the fear of the loss of their culture (Patel 2006). On the other side of the globe, small arctic villages along the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas share close cultural ties to the ocean, too, are facing possibility of relocation. Decreased arctic sea ice along with a loss of permafrost that provided rigidity and support to coastlines has impacted coastal communities with increased erosion from late winter storms that ordinarily occur once the sea ice has set in (Figure 15). Other concerns associated with climate change that also stress these coastal environments include the loss of permafrost, sea level rise, and the increased frequency and intensity of storms. The National Park Service has examined coastal erosion in two northwest national parks and have determined that since 1987 shoreline has been lost at a rate of 1 to 10 meters per year (or 3-30 feet) (Jordan et al. in press, Manley et al. in press). In another study, along the Beaufort Sea, the USGS examined 50 years of coastal region, from 1955 to 1985 an average rate of land loss of 0.5 km2/year was lost; whereas from 1985 to 2005 an average rate of land loss of 1.1 km2/year was lost (Mars and Houseknect 2007). Figure 15. Coastal erosion at Shishmaref, Alaska (an Inupiat village in the Chukchi Sea, just north of the Bering Strait) during a two-hour period. Note the loss of land immediately to the left of the oil drum, highlighted by the red arrow. (National Snow and Ice Data Center, Serreze 2007) Human health is predicted to decline due to increased risk of mortality and injury because of climate change related causes (IPCC 2007) (Figure 16). Some of the increased deaths may be due to infectious diseases because of heavy precipitation events; food and water shortages and water and food borne diseases because of areas affected by drought; death and food and water borne diseases because of intense tropical cyclone activity; and by drowning in floods because of increased incidence of extreme high seas. Many of the effects of climate change on society will be worst for those people residing in economically poorer nations with limited adaptive capacity (IPCC 2007). 14 Figure 16. Many impacts on human health will be negative in nature. Direction and magnitude of change of health impacts from climate change (IPCC 2007). Conservation Implications of Climate Change All ocean species already face a barrage of anthropogenic-based stressors. Non-climate stresses can increase vulnerability of ocean species to climate change by reducing resilience and reducing their adaptive capacity to react to the physical effects of climate change (IPCC 2007). Climate change may exacerbate current stressors that these species deal with, and the scientific community at-large is concerned that the effects of climate change acting together with existing threats, will accelerate the rate at which we lose biodiversity (Parmesan and Galbraith 2004). A resilience-based approach (of minimizing other anthropogenic stressors) to management of ocean ecosystems is key to ensuring that ocean species such as coral reefs or marine mammals may better deal with habitat changes associated with climate change. For example, in the North Pacific, Steller sea lion abundance and distribution is greatly affected by a number of physical and biological oceanographic parameters as well as climatological conditions (Trites et al. 2007). These are factors that may be difficult to influence on any real-time basis. Other stressors on the species, such as overfishing, entanglement in fishing gear, intentional shootings, and pollutants, are more readily managed at the local level than factors associated with climate change. In addition, these factors have been the subject of much research and monitoring, and we have a better understanding of how management actions might benefit this species. Addressing anthropogenic stressors as a first line of defense will increase the resiliency of marine mammal species to short and long-term impacts of climate change. Protecting important habitat is also critical to combating potential effects of climate change (Harley et al. 2006). Hoyt (2005) argues that habitat of cetaceans is best protected through ecosystem-based management approaches using a carefully selected network of marine reserves. In some cases, reserves have been established specifically for the protection of marine mammals (see Hoyt 2005 for a complete list). In other cases, marine reserves have been designated for protection of important fish stocks (CDFG 2007). Protected no-take areas are vital tools for the conservation and protection of ecosystem resilience of coral reefs (Mumby et al. 2007, Hughes et al. 2007). 15 Species that suffer reductions in range and habitat size are at greater risk of extinction. Species with slow generation time might not have enough time for an adaptive response to rapid change in climate. Species with low genetic diversity or species that reproduce with clones may also be more susceptible to extinction. Given the uncertainty about the effects of climate change on ocean species, incorporating an adaptive approach to management that provides flexibility in how species and their habitats are managed is key (Elliott and Simmonds 2007, Hollowed et al. 2007, Harley et al. 2006, Learmonth et al. 2006,). 16 References Cited Baker, J.D., C.L. Littnan, and D.W. Johnston. 2006. Potential effects of sea level rise on the terrestrial habitats of endangered and endemic megafauna in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Endangered Species Research 4:1-10. Barnosky, A.D., and B.P. Kraatz. 2007. The role of climate change in the evolution of mammals. BioScience 57:523-532. Bruckner, A., K. Buja, L. Fairey, K. Gleason, M. Harmon, S. Heron, T. Hourigan, C. Jeffrey, J. Kellner, R. Kelty, B. Leeworthy, G. Liu, S. Pittman, A. Shapiro, A. Strong, J. Waddell, and P. Wiley. 2005. Threats and stressors to U.S. coral reef ecosystems. Pages 12-44 in: J. Waddell, editor. 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