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Assessments of Impacts and
Adaptations to Climate Change in
Multiple Regions and Sectors:
Filling Gaps in Scientific Knowledge
and Capacity
Peter McGrath
Acting programme officer, TWAS, Trieste, Italy
[email protected]
International Conference:
Global Philanthropists - Partners for a knowledge-based response to climate change
Portoroz, Slovenia, 1-3 June 2008
TWAS: Who and what we are
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Located at the Abdus Salam
International Centre for
Theoretical Physics (ICTP),
Trieste, Italy.
Administered by the United
Nations Educational, Scientific
and Cultural Organization
(UNESCO).
Founded 1983 in Trieste, Italy,
by Abdus Salam and 40 other
eminent scientists from the
South (incl. 10 Nobel
Laureates).
Inaugurated 1985 by the
Secretary General of the United
Nations, Javier Perez de
Cuellar.
TWAS: Who and what we are
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880 Members in 90 countries
746 “Fellows” in 73 countries in the
South.
134 “Associate Fellows” in 17
countries in the North.
15 Nobel Laureates.
“The voice of science for the South”
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TWAS: Objectives
• Recognize, support and promote excellence in scientific
research in the South.
• Respond to the needs of scientists working under
unfavourable conditions.
• Support South-South scientific exchange and collaboration.
• Promote South-North cooperation between individuals and
centres of excellence.
• Promote dissemination of scientific information and sharing
of innovative experiences.
“Building scientific capacity in developing countries”
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Climate change: The challenge
"At the start of the 20th century, there were one billion people on
the planet. Now there are more than six billion people. By 2054 –
in just 43 years' time – we will reach nine billion people.
“The challenge is to meet the requirements of all those nine billion
people. Can we make the cultural changes that will be necessary?
“These additional three billion people will put added pressure on
our natural resources, such as fresh water and biodiversity,
especially in the light of climate change – the effects of which
will be felt most severely in Africa, the region that has the least
capacity to deal with it.”
David King, former science advisor to the UK government
G8-UNESCO World Forum on
Education, Research and Innovation: New Partnership for Sustainable Development
10-12 May 2007, Trieste, Italy
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Climate change: The challenge
Filling Gaps in Scientific Knowledge and Capacity
The Third Assessment Report of the IPCC (2001) highlighted that developing
countries are highly vulnerable to climate change.
“Yet gaps exist in understanding the nature of this vulnerability and opportunities for
adaptation. Furthermore, in many of these countries, there is a need for improved
scientific and technical capacity to conduct the integrated, multi-disciplinary regional
investigations necessary to fill these gaps.”
Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC)
“We need science to fill these gaps –
and we need scientific capacity in
developing countries to ensure that the
science carried out is relevant to the
needs of these countries.”
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Climate change: The challenge
Africa is most vulnerable to climate change
because of its fragile ecosystems, and weak
resilience and adaptation capacity.
WHO estimated mortality (per
million people) attributable to
climate change by 2000.
Source: Nature (2005), vol. 438, pages 310-317.
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Model project: AIACC
Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC)
• Developed in collaboration with the UNEP/WMO Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC);
• funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF);
• implemented by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
• executed jointly by START and TWAS;
• collateral funding provided by the United States Agency for International
Development (USAID), the Canadian International Development Agency
(CIDA), the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the
World Bank; and
• substantial in-kind support was provided by participating institutions in
developing countries.
www.aiaccproject.org
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Model project: AIACC
Aim:
To advance the scientific understanding of climate change vulnerabilities
and adaptation options in developing countries.
Outcome:
By funding collaborative research, training and technical support, AIACC
has enhanced the scientific capacity of developing countries to assess
climate change vulnerabilities and adaptations, and has generated and
communicated information useful for adaptation planning and action.
www.aiaccproject.org
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Climate change: Filling the gaps
Where are the gaps?
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Climate models – Need for regional models of relevance
to developing countries.
Health – Unknown effects on infectious diseases such as
malaria, dengue and diarrhoea.
Agriculture – Unknown effects on traditional crops and
varieties. Rice cultivation in Asia thought to be under
threat.
Fisheries – Changes to ocean currents will affect
fisheries. Temperature changes will affect food-chains.
Water – There will be widespread – but largely, as yet,
unpredictable – effects on the hydrological cycle,
especially in arid and semi-arid areas where people
already lack sufficient safe drinking water and water for
irrigating crops.
Other sectors – Rising sea-level, disaster mitigation …
Climate change: Filling the gaps
“A partnership between climatologists and crop scientists will be valuable.”
“The estimated window for implementing mitigation and adaptation programmes has shrunk
from 30-40 years to 15 years.”
Martin Parry, IPCC co-chair, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK
“There is a need to go beyond coarse global models and develop specific river basin and
farm-scale models of how climate change will affect river water availability and lake levels.”
Colin Chartes, International Water Management Institute, Sri Lanka
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Scientific response: Trieste
International scientific organizations based
in Trieste:
• Abdus Salam International Centre for
Theoretical Physics (ICTP)
• International Centre for Genetic
Engineering and Biotechnology (ICGEB)
• International Centre for Science and High
Technology (ICS-UNIDO)
• TWAS, the academy of sciences for the
developing world.
International scientific organizations based
in Trieste and associated with TWAS:
• TWNSO => COSTIS
• InterAcademy Panel (IAP)
• InterAcademy Medical Panel (IAMP)
• Third World Organization for Women in
Science (TWOWS).
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Trieste: ICTP
Physics of Weather and Climate Section
• established at ICTP in 1998.
Objectives:
• to carry out research and educational activities in the physics of the atmosphere, ocean,
and land surface processes; and
• to make climate models available and provide the know-how of their use to the scientific
community in developing countries.
Research activities can be broadly divided into two main areas:
• regional climate change, with emphasis on anthropogenic effects and future climate
scenarios; and
• natural climate variability.
Each year, the group organizes a number of
educational activities, such as workshops and
conferences on specific topics related to
weather and climate research.
The group also maintains strong contacts with
international programmes and leading
laboratories worldwide to maintain a state-ofthe-art level of research and to enhance
communication between scientists in developing
and developed countries.
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Trieste: TWAS and ICGEB
Joint Programme on Abiotic Stress in Plants
Overview:
• Initiated in 2006;
• 5 research networks funded;
• One member of each network must be from an ICGEB member state,
and one must be from a science- and technology-lagging country
(S&TLC);
• US$10,000 a year, provided to
each research network for three
years, most of which must be
spent supporting research in
and training young scientists
from the S&TLC partner;
• Currently funded entirely by
TWAS and ICGEB.
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Trieste: TWAS and ICGEB
Joint Programme on Abiotic Stress in Plants
Research programmes being supported:
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Tolerance strategies of Quinoa plants under salt stress: Chile with
collaborators from Argentina, Mali and Italy;
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Use of bacterial H+ pyrophosphatases for the development of salttolerant plants: Russia with a collaborator from Uzbekistan;
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The development of maize and other crops tolerant to abiotic stresses:
South Africa with collaborators from Kenya and Zimbabwe;
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Over-expression of genes encoding ion transport proteins as a strategy
to improve salt- and drought-tolerance in wheat: Tunisia with
collaborators from Ghana and Syria;
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The identification of key genes
involved in salt and osmotic stress
tolerance in model plants: Uruguay
with collaborators from Argentina,
Nicaragua and Hungary.
Trieste: TWAS, TWNSO
Conservation and Sustainable Use of Dryland Biodiversity
Overview:
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Three-year project: 2000-2003;
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Aimed at identifying and disseminating ‘Best Practices’ case studies;
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Aimed at linking and networking research institutes from the world’s arid and
semi-arid regions;
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Involved 3 regional workshops and 2 international conferences;
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70 case studies published aimed at different levels of interest/understanding
(scientists; policy-makers and NGOs; general public);
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Funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF).
Trieste: TWNSO => COSTIS
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Third World Network of Science Organizations (TWNSO), founded in 1988, Trieste,
Italy.
January 2007: TWNSO to become the Consortium on Science, Technology and
Innovation for the South (COSTIS).
Decision announced by Foreign Ministers of the Group of 77 at meeting held at
UN headquarters in New York City on 22 September 2006.
COSTIS Membership
• Ministers responsible for S&T;
• National Research Councils;
• National Science Foundations;
• National Science Academies;
• Science-based private sector institutions (observer
status).
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“TWNSO/COSTIS
regarded as the
‘political wing’ of
TWAS – enabling
the Academy to
promote the need
for science at the
highest government
levels.”
Trieste: TWAS Regional Offices
Beijing
Alexandria
Bibliotheca Alexandrina
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Bangalore
J.N. Centre for Advanced
Scientific Research
African Academy of Sciences
Nairobi
Rio de
Janeiro
Brazilian Academy of
Sciences
TWAS Regional Office for Sub-Saharan Africa (TWAS-ROSSA):
• Hosted by the African Academy of Sciences (AAS), which also hosts
the Network of African Academies of Science (NASAC).
• AAS is currently implementing a project with START (TWAS’s AIACC
partner) to offer fellowships to young scientists from sub-Saharan Africa
in the area of climate change science.
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Trieste: TWAS and Networks of
Academies of Science
Statements:
• Joint statement by
academies of G8 countries
and NASAC to
G8 summit in Scotland
in June 2005.
• NASAC statement to
AU summit in Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia, in January 2007.
• NASAC statement to
G8 summit in Germany
in June 2007.
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Climate change: Filling the gaps
There are gaps evident in these
highlighted projects:
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TWAS-ICGEB: Relatively low level of
funding for a project that could be
expanded greatly.
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TWNSO drylands biodiversity:
Funding has ceased – but needs
continue for the second phase, on
sustainable land management.
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Climate change: Filling the gaps
Tearfund Climate Change Briefing Paper 1 (2006)
Institute of Development Studies
Overcoming the Barriers: Mainstreaming Climate
Change Adaptation in Developing Countries
Major recommendations:
• Funding for adaptation should be
increased well beyond that currently
available via the GEF and other
adaptation-specific bilateral aid.
• Donors should support research and
monitoring and evaluation of the
mainstreaming process, to develop
understanding of what contributes to
effective enabling environments.
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Climate change: Filling the gaps
Conclusion:
• Many challenges remain – indeed, it is likely that many challenges are only now
emerging.
• Developing countries are most at risk – and developing countries have less scientific
expertise available to be able to define that risk and to provide advice on adaptation
and mitigation responses.
• Developing countries’ scientific capacity must be
increased – across the board, from basic chemistry and
theoretical physics, to the agricultural sciences and
integrated water management etc…
• TWAS is already addressing these problems through its
current programmes: research grants, fellowships
programmes, support for scientific meetings etc...
“But much more still
needs to be done.”
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Thank you for your attention
Peter McGrath
TWAS Acting programme officer
[email protected]
www.twas.org