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Debunking the myths of Climate Change Helen Young Former Lead Presenter BBC Weather Centre © Crown copyright 2004 CLIMATE CHANGE:- A HOT TOPIC © Crown copyright 2004 CLIMATE CHANGE:- IN THE MEDIA © Crown copyright 2004 CLIMATE CHANGE:- weather events © Crown copyright 2004 WEATHER and CLIMATE Weather – instantaneous atmospheric conditions temperature, rainfall, pressure, wind etc Climate - the long-term signal derived from individual weather events. ‘Averaged out’ weather over a long period of time. - Climate scientists normally use a period of 30 years © Crown copyright 2004 WEATHER 1990ish © Crown copyright 2004 WEATHER 2005ish © Crown copyright 2004 CLIMATE CHANGE:- A GLOBAL ISSUE © Crown copyright 2004 SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITIES- IPCC Recognizing the problem of potential global climate change, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. It is open to all members of the UN and WMO. © Crown copyright 2004 NATURE © Crown copyright 2004 Changes in Met Office Computing 1981 The Met Office’s first Super Computer! Changes in Met Office Computing 2003 Arrival of NEC SX-6, One of the Worlds Fastest Supercomputers © Crown copyright 2004 Changes in Met Office Computing Ferranti Mercury - ‘Meteor’ 3000 calculations per second The ‘Cray twins’ 160,000 million calculations per second The NEC SX-6 computer installed Exeter 2004, 6 times more powerful 2005, 2 million, million calculations per second © Crown copyright 2004 Numerical Model Accuracy Area: North Atlantic 0 New model introduced New model introduced New model introduced 2 24-hr forecast RMS MSLP 4 48-hr forecast 6 72-hr forecast 8 © Crown copyright 2004 20 00 19 96 19 90 19 80 19 70 10 Myth 1 Our climate has always changed, this is just another natural change and nothing to do with humans. © Crown copyright 2004 © Crown copyright 2004 Grape vines © Crown copyright 2004 Three Cranes Wharf near Blackfriars in the City © Crown copyright 2004 CLIMATE 1000 - 2000AD © Crown copyright 2004 Source: IPCC 2000 How much climate change has there really been? GLOBAL TEMPERATURES have risen by about 0.7ºC between 1861 and 2003 © Crown copyright 2004 Observed and simulated change Natural factors 1.0 Temperature change ºC observed observed model modelsimulation simulation + 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1850 © Crown copyright 2004 1900 1950 2000 THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT ..most escapes to outer space and cools the earth... SUN …but some IR is trapped by some gases in the air, thus reducing the cooling. Sunlight passes through the atmosphere.. ..and warms the earth. Infra-red radiation is given off by the earth... GREENHOUSE GASES The most important greenhouse gases are:carbon dioxide methane nitrous oxide hydrofluorocarbons Perfluorocarbons sulphur hexafluoride. These are the gases that are covered by the Kyoto Protocol. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are also powerful greenhouse gases but they are being progressively phased out under the Montreal Protocol as they also damage the stratospheric ozone layer. © Crown copyright 2004 HUMAN ACTIVITIES HAVE CHANGED THE ATMOSPHERE © Crown copyright 2004 CO2 Concentration in Ice Core Samples and Projections for Next 100 Years Projected (2100) 700 Projected (2100) 650 Vostok Record IPCC IS92a Scenario Law Dome Record Mauna Loa Record 550 500 450 400 Current Current (2001) (2005) 350 300 250 200 150 400,000 300,000 200,000 Years Before Present © Crown copyright 2004 (B.P. -- 1950) 100,000 0 (ppmv) 2 Concentration CO2CO Concentration (ppmv) 600 Myth 2 Carbon dioxide is not driving our current warming. Carbon Dioxide only makes up a small part of the atmosphere therefore it cannot be responsible for this current Global Warming. © Crown copyright 2004 EARTH’S ORBIT Orbit for Northern Hemisphere © Crown copyright 2004 CO2 concentrations have risen by over 30% due to human activities Projected levels of atmospheric CO2 during the in Ice Core Samples and next 100 years wouldCObeConcentration higher than at anytime Projections for Next 100 Years in the last 440,000 yrs Projected (2100) 2 700 Projected (2100) 650 Vostok Record IPCC IS92a Scenario Law Dome Record Mauna Loa Record 550 500 450 400 Current (2001) Current (2007) 350 300 250 200 150 400,000 300,000 200,000 Years Before Present © Crown copyright 2004 (B.P. -- 1950) 100,000 0 CO2CO Concentration (ppmv) 2 Concentration (ppmv) 600 CO2 concentrations have risen by over 30% due to human activities Projected levels of atmospheric CO2 during the in Ice Core Samples and next 100 years would CO beConcentration higher than at anytime Projections for Next 100 Years in the last 440,000 yrs Projected (2100) 2 700 Projected (2100) 650 Vostok Record IPCC IS92a Scenario Law Dome Record Mauna Loa Record 550 500 450 400 Current Current (2001) (2005) 350 300 250 200 150 400,000 300,000 200,000 Years Before Present © Crown copyright 2004 (B.P. -- 1950) 100,000 0 (ppmv) 2 Concentration CO2CO Concentration (ppmv) 600 Observed and simulated change 1.0 Natural & man-made factors Temperature change ºC observed observed model modelsimulation simulation + 0.5 + 0.0 -0.5 1850 © Crown copyright 2004 1900 1950 2000 RELATIVE WARMING OF GREENHOUSE GASES current emissions, effect over next 100 years Methane 24% Nitrous oxide 10% Others 3% © Crown copyright 2004 Carbon dioxide 63% ATMOSPHERIC CONSTITUENTS which affect climate; sources and lifetimes Carbon dioxide Fossil fuels, deforestation 100 years Methane Agriculture, natural gas 10 years Other gases (nitrous oxide, CFCs, ground-level ozone..) Aerosols © Crown copyright 2004 Power generation, transport 2 weeks CARBON DIOXIDE (CO2) The most important man-made greenhouse gas About half of the CO2 emitted by Man remains in the atmosphere; remainder absorbed by vegetation and oceans CO2 risen by 1/3 since the industrial revolution CO2 emissions would have to be reduced by about 70% to stabilise climate change © Crown copyright 2004 Myth 3 Computer models are unreliable. How can you predict 100 years ahead when you can’t predict the weather for the next 5 days? © Crown copyright 2004 THE CLIMATE SYSTEM ATMOSPHERE Terrestrial radiation Greenhouse gases and aerosol Ice- sheets snow Clouds Solar radiation Precipitation Sea-ice OCEAN Biomass LAND Development of Hadley Centre Climate Models ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE SULPHUR CARBON 1999 ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE SULPHUR CARBON 1997 ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE SULPHUR 1992 ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE ATMOSPHERE 1985 ATMOSPHERE 1960s ATMOSPHERE © Crown copyright 2004 LAND OCEAN LAND CHEMISTRY Projections of Climate Change © Crown copyright 2004 Model Projections – Global temperature rise Global temperature rise, degrees C High emissions Medium-high emissions Medium-low emissions Low emissions Start to diverge from mid-century Other climate models: 1.5 - 6°C © Crown copyright 2004 Myth 4 It’s all to do with the sunThere’s a strong link between increasing temperatures on earth and the number of sunspots on the sun. © Crown copyright 2004 Solar influence Temperature anomaly relative to late 19th century. © Crown copyright 2004 GJJ1999 CHANGES IN SOLAR ENERGY Solar radiation / W m–2 1374 1372 1370 1368 1850 © Crown copyright 2004 1900 1950 2000 Myth 6 The NAD will be cut off and we’ll be heading for another ice age © Crown copyright 2004 GJJ1999 GLOBAL OCEAN CIRCULATION COOLING WARM SURFACE CURRENT INTERMEDIATE WATERS WARM AND LESS SALINE ANTARCTIC CIRCUMPOLAR CURRENT The Gulf Stream © Crown copyright 2004 Circulation strength NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN CIRCULATION © Crown copyright 2004 No change SRES A1FI SRES B2 SRES B1 SRES A2 The Day After Tomorrow? Very unlikely! © Crown copyright 2004 Myth 5 Everyone jumps on the negative effects of Climate Change there’s no need for urgent action. © Crown copyright 2004 Global-average temperature and sea level are projected to rise under all scenarios Global-average surface temperature projected to increase by 1.4 ºC (~2.5 °F) to 5.8 ºC (~10.5 °F) by 2100 Rate of warming likely unprecedented in at least last 10,000 yrs Land areas will warm more than the global average Global average precipitation will increase over 21st century Very likely to be more intense precipitation events Snow cover and sea-ice extent projected to decrease further Glaciers and icecaps projected to continue widespread retreat Global mean sea-level projected to increase by 9 cm (~3.5 in) to 88 cm (~34.5 in) by 2100 © Crown copyright 2004 COASTAL POPULATIONS AT RISK Change from the present day to the 2080s © Crown copyright 2004 University of Middlesex IMPACTS ON THE UK Coastal flooding from sea-level rise River flooding from more heavy rain events Health risks Water supply threatened by droughts Increased storminess? © Crown copyright 2004 HOW QUICKLY WILL THE CLIMATE CHANGE IN FUTURE Depends on………… How much greenhouse gas emissions grow this depends on population growth, energy use, new technologies, etc How sensitive the climate system is to emissions how clouds, ice, oceans etc respond to the extra heating; we build a mathematical model of the earth’s climate system to calculate this © Crown copyright 2004 WHAT CAN BE DONE? Adaptation coping with the effects of climate change Mitigation reducing emissions of greenhouse gases soaking up CO2 by forests, etc reducing sensitivities © Crown copyright 2004 © Crown copyright 2004 Things you can do today at no cost: •Turn off lights when you leave a room •Only boil the amount of water you need in your kettle •Turn off televisions, videos, stereos and computers when they are not in use - they can use between 10 and 60% of the power they use when on •Don't leave fridge doors open for longer than necessary, let food cool down fully before putting in the fridge or freezer, defrost regularly and keep at the right temperature •Close curtains at dusk to keep in heat •Let your clothes dry naturally rather than using a tumble drier •Turning down the thermostat for your heating by 1 degree could cut your heating bill by 10% •Set your water thermostat for 60 degrees - this is plenty warm enough for bathing and washing and will save money too •Use economy programmes on dishwashers or washing machines •Where possible don't stand cookers and fridges/freezers next to each other © Crown copyright 2004 Things you could do in the future •Put foil behind radiators fitted on external walls •Use energy saving lightbulbs - they use a quarter of the electricity and last much longer •Insulate your hot water tank and pipes •Speak to your energy provider about their 'green tariff' - they may be able to match your energy consumption with an equivalent amount of energy from renewable sources •Fit seals to externals doors, skirting boards and floor boards to reduce heat loss - 15% of heat is lost through draughts and 15% through the floor •Make your windows draught proof or fit double glazing - this cuts heat loss in half - up to 10% of heat is lost through uninsulated windows •Fit loft insulation - which should be at least 200mm thick to be most effective - 25% of heat is lost through an uninsulated roof •Fit wall insulation - up to 33% of heat is lost through uninsulated walls •Replace old inefficient boilers •Fit solar panels or solar tiles to your roof © Crown copyright 2004 Links: www.metoffice.gov.uk www.bbc.co.uk/climate www.royalsoc.ac.uk www.ipcc.ch © Crown copyright 2004