Download Jerome Weingart and Judy Siegel Energy and Security Group Reston

Bioenergy: Large-Scale Production
and Climate Change Implications
Jerome Weingart and Judy Siegel
Energy and Security Group
Reston, Virginia (USA)
International Conference on Sustainable Bioenergy
Bonn, Germany  October 12-13, 2006
Focus of presentation
• Principal climate impact areas: largescale biomass production and use for
energy
• Research and analysis necessary to
understand these impacts
• Case example: potential of liquid
biofuels to offset GHG emissions in the
road transport sector of developing Asia
(excludes Japan, S. Korea, Singapore).
Constraints: Biofuels Production and Use
• Environmental impacts (land conversion)
– Tropical forest replacement by monocrops
– Deforestation
– Diminished ecological diversity and resilience;
destruction of wildlife habitat
– Nutrient leaching
– Pollution from chemicals
– Loss of watersheds
– Soil erosion, mud slides, and forest fires
• Need to protect soil productivity, water quality,
and other ecosystem services (WRI)
Constraints: Biofuels Production and Use
• Potential competition for food production
• Availability of suitable land
Land required for long-term global biofuels
feedstock production (10% substitution) *
Biofuel
Ethanol
(cellulose)
Ethanol
(sugar beet)
Ethanol
(sugar beet)
Biodiesel
107 ha
15
% world
cropland
10 %
16
11 %
6
4%
17
12 %
* IEA (2004) Automotive Fuels for the Future (pp 75-76)
Biofuels from field to wheels: monocropping,
diversity reduction, and destruction of habitat
Oil palm plantation
Climate Change Issues
• Climate system impacts through altered
land use and massive cultivation
(including water use)
– Altered surface roughness
– Altered evapotranspiration rates
– Altered surface albedo
– Nitrogen oxides & methane from agriculture
• (others) For panel discussion today
Biofuels Climate Benefits
• GHG emissions displacement
• Improved air quality (tailpipe emissions
reductions)
• Reclamation of degraded land (e.g. via
Jatropha)
• Reduction of sand storms and
atmospheric dust
• Slowing of desertification (eventual
reversal?)
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from
the Asia Vehicle Transport Sector *
Scenarios for
market
penetration of
low-GHG biofuels
J. Weingart (2006). Analysis for the Asian Development Bank
Global GHG Emissions from Energy
* World Resources Institute (2005). Navigating the Numbers
Global GHG Emissions from Transport
* World Resources Institute (2005). Navigating the Numbers
Road fuels global production in 2005
Fuel
Production
(billion liters/year)
Crude oil
Gasoline (road sector)
4,705
IEA model
Diesel (road sector) IEA model
Bioethanol (1.7% energy basis)
Biodiesel (0.5% energy basis)
1,289
668
33
4
World-wide demand for liquid fuels for road
transport (IEA/SMP) 2000 - 2050
3,500
MMtoe/year
3,000
2,500
Rest of World
2,000
OECD Pacific
OECD Europe
1,500
OECD North
America
1,000
Other Asia
India
China
500
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
MMTOE per year
Liquid Fuels for Transport in Asia: IEA Base
Case Scenario (IEA-SMP transport model)
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000
Other Asia
India
China
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
IEA/SMP = International Energy Agency / Sustainable
Mobility Project
Vehicle Ownership Rate Estimates for China and India
Vehicles per 1,000 people
250
200
150
China
India
100
50
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
China – from this, to …
this, and to …
This!
The future (?): 6-fold GHG emissions
growth from Asia road transport
MMT CO2-e per year for China, India, and
emerging Asia road transport fuels
3500
MMT CO2-e/year
3000
2500
2000
Gasoline
1500
Diesel
1000
500
0
2000
2010
2020
* Reference case (from IEA/SMP model)
2030
2040
2050
Why are we interested in biofuels for
the Asian road transport sector?
•
•
•
•
Potentially competitive with petrofuels
Indigenous, can offset imported petroleum
Significant reduction in tailpipe emissions
Potential for major reduction (80 – 95%) in
net unit life-cycle GHG emissions compared
with petrofuels, and
• Potential for large-scale sustainable
production (perhaps)
What is a scenario?
• A scenario is like a screen play for
the future.
• A scenario is NOT a prediction; it
asks “what if”, using rules that
reflect real world market dynamics
and constraints
What is a market penetration scenario?
• Model of a possible future
• Analytic – logistic penetration model for
increasing market share of an “intruder”
into an “incumbent” market (“S”-shaped
curve)
• Permits specification of key parameters
to assess impacts of alternative
penetration rates and ultimate market
fraction for new options
Stages of market penetration
Fraction of market
penetration
Logistic Penetration (1% to 50% in 20 years)
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Pioneering
0
Illustrative phases of market development
Maturation
Market dynamism
Takeoff
Expansion
Prototype
5
10
15
20
25
Year
30
35
40
45
Two illustrative scenarios: biofuels
penetration of road fuel markets in Asia
• 10% to 90% penetration in 50 years
• Logistic (“S”-shaped) penetration
• “Extreme” biofuels market penetration S1
– Potential market = 50% road fuels
– 75% lower associated GHG emissions
• “Ultimate” biofuels market penetration S2
– Potential market = 100% road fuels
– 90% lower associated GHG emissions
GHG Emissions Impacts of Biofuels
Field-to-wheel CO2-equivalent GHG emissions
from biofuels, per km, relative to base fuel
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
-100%
-120%
Ethanol
Ethanol
Ethanol
from grains, from sugar from sugar
US/EU
beets, EU cane, Brazil
Ethanol
from
cellulosic
feedstocks
Source:
25 L. Fulton (2004), IEA (currently at UNEP Nairobi)
Biodiesel
from
rapeseed,
EU
Asia road transport GHG emissions with and
without accelerated biofuels penetration S1
Petroleum fuels
With biofuels
3,500
MMT CO2-e/year
3,000
Business as
usual GHG
emissions
2,500
2,000
1,500
Biofuels and
reduced GHG
emissions
1,000
500
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
2060
Asia road transport GHG emissions with and
without extreme biofuels penetration S2
Base case 100% petro fuels
Aggressive penetration low GHG biofuels
3,500
Business as
usual GHG
emissions
MMT CO2-e/year
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
High biofuels
penetration
GHG emissions
1,000
500
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
2060
How to maximize biofuels offsets of
GHG emissions
• Reduce growth in transport fuel demand
• Increased end use efficiency is much
less expensive than expanding supply
• This is the “golden rule” for renewables
Potential next steps
• Consistent life-cycle analysis for large-scale
bio-ethanol and biodiesel production/use
(“platform” for climate impact analysis and
assessment)
• Collaboration among national biofuels
working groups using compatible LCA and
environmental impact methodologies
• Establishment of biofuels collaboratives for
collaboration, coordination, technical
assistance, and knowledge management
New Bioenergy Center
(Washington, DC)
• International NGO Renew the Earth has
established a bioenergy center
• Purposes include
– Bioenergy information clearinghouse
– Analysis of alternative bioenergy options
– Assessment of bioenergy sustainability
requirements and opportunities
For more information:
Judy Siegel
[email protected]
Jerome Weingart
[email protected]