Download LNG and climate change

LNG and climate change
The global context
Matt Horne and Josha MacNab
Pembina Institute
[email protected] | (778) 235-1476 | @hornematt
[email protected] | (778) 871-1100 | @jmacnab
Context
2
The claim
Exporting LNG is…
“…the greatest single step we can take to
fight climate change.”
B.C. Throne Speech, February 2014
3
The reality
In a world with weak climate policies, natural gas
will not reduce coal use and will not help solve
climate change.
In a world with strong climate policies:


4
Demand for natural gas peaks by 2030 and drops
below current levels by mid-century.
Energy efficiency, renewables and nuclear enable a
transition away from fossil fuels.
Overview
• Unpacking the claim
• Approach
• Findings
• Summary & Recommendations
5
Unpacking the claim
The government’s claim is premised on two
assumptions:
1. Natural
gas is less
polluting
than coal.
6
2. Exports
of LNG will
displace
coal.
Overall
carbon
pollution
will drop.
Unpacking the claim
The government’s claim is premised on two
assumptions:
1. Natural
gas is less
polluting
than coal.
2. Exports
of LNG will
displace
coal.
Overall
carbon
pollution
will drop.
The reality isn’t this simple
7
Unpacking the claim
• Assumption 1 is mostly right:
• While there is uncertainty, gas is less polluting than
coal in most cases if methane is well managed.
• Assumption 2 is flawed:
• Climate policy, not the availability of natural gas,
determines coal use.
• Coal and gas aren’t the only options. The broader
mix of coal, gas, oil, renewables, nuclear and
efficiency determines total carbon pollution.
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Our approach
• We reviewed existing models to assess:
• What is the role of natural gas in a world with
weak climate policies (the world we live in
today)?
• What is the role of natural gas in a world with
strong climate policies (the world we’re trying to
transition to)?
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Findings – Weak policy
• In a world with weak climate policies, natural gas
will not reduce coal use and will not help solve
climate change.
2011
2035
2011
10
2035
Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook, 2013
Findings – Strong policy
In a world with strong climate policies, natural gas
demand peaks near 2030, and drops below current
levels by mid-century.
2030: Peak.
Mid-century: Below current demand.
Natural gas demand with
weak climate policies
Natural gas demand with
strong climate policies
11
Findings – Strong policy
• In a world with strong climate policies, energy
efficiency, renewables and nuclear enable a
transition away from fossil fuels.
Difference between a world with strong
and weak climate change policies
12
Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook, 2013
Summary & recommendations
In a world with weak climate policies, natural gas
will not reduce coal use and will not help solve
climate change.
In a world with strong climate policies:
• Demand for natural gas peaks by 2030 and drops
below current levels by mid-century.
• Energy efficiency, renewables and nuclear enable a
transition away from fossil fuels.
13
Summary & recommendations
• Strengthen domestic efforts to reduce
carbon pollution.
• Play an increasingly proactive role in
encouraging stronger climate policy globally.
14
Josha MacNab, BC Director
[email protected] | 778) 871-1100 | @jmacnab
Matt Horne, BC Associate Director
[email protected] | (778) 235-1476 | @hornematt
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