Download Multi-gas abatement analysis of the Marrakesh Accords Paul. L

Emission implications
of long-term climate targets
- a work-in-progress report Michel den Elzen (RIVM, the Netherlands)
Malte Meinshausen (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
Side Event COP-10
13th December 2004
Buenos Aires
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Introduction

Part 1: Why 2°C ? What CO2 level corresponds with a
2°C target?

Part 2: The method to derive emission pathways with
cost-effective multi-gas mixes of reductions.

Part 3:What are the (regional) emission reduction
targets?

Part 4: What is the impact of further delay?
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Part 1:
Why 2°C?
What equilibrium CO2-equivalent level
corresponds with 2oC?
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EU’s 2°C target
 “[...] the Council believes that global average temperatures
should not exceed 2 degrees above pre-industrial level and
that therefore concentration levels lower than 550 ppm CO2
should guide global limitation and reduction efforts. [...]”(1939
th
Council meeting, Luxembourg, 25 June 1996)
 “REAFFIRMS that, with a view to meeting the ultimate
objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change [...] to prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system, overall global annual
mean surface temperature increase should not exceed 2°C
above pre-industrial levels in order to limit high risks,
including irreversible impacts of climate change;
RECOGNISES that 2°C would already imply significant
impacts on ecosystems and water resources [...]” (2610th Council
Meeting, Luxembourg, 14 October 2004 Council 2004, 25-26 March 2004)
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Temperature increase higher over land
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Reasons for Concern (IPCC TAR WGII)
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Millions at Risk
(Parry et al., 2001)
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Expected warming for ~550ppm CO2eq
Climate Sensitivity ...
... summarizes key uncertainties in climate science
... is the expected average warming of the earth’s surface for a
doubling of CO2 concentrations (about 550 ppm CO2)
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Background: Difference between CO2 and
CO2equivalence


“CO2equivalence” summarizes the climate effect
(‘radiative forcing’) of all human-induced greenhousegases and aerosols, as if we only changed the
atmospheric concentrations of CO2.
Like “bread exchange” units for food or “tonnes oil
equivalent (toe)” for energy sources.
Conversion Table for > 2100
CO2 (ppmv)
+ other GHG
+ aerosols
CO2eq
(ppmv)
350 + other
≈
400
390 + other
≈
450
470 + other
≈
550
550 + other
≈
650
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Expected warming for ~550ppm CO2eq


New research cannot exclude very high warming levels (e.g. >
4.5°C) for stabilization of greenhouse gases at 550ppm CO2–eq.
“The fact that we are uncertain may actually be a reason to act
sooner rather than later” (Eileen Claussen)
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The risk to overshoot 2°C
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The Risk to overshoot 2°C
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Conclusions Part 1
 550 ppm CO2 equivalence is “unlikely” to meet the 2°C
target
 The risk to overshoot 2°C can be substantially reduced
for lower stabilization levels.
 There is about a fifty:fifty chance to meet 2°C by
stabilizing at 450ppm
 There is a “likely” achievement of the 2°C target for
stabilization at 400ppm CO2eq (risk to overshoot 2°C is
about 25%).
 Dependent on climate sensitivity PDF
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Part 2:
The method to calculate emission
pathways
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Method: FAIR-SiMCaP
 FAIR (RIVM)
Calculates the emission allowances and abatement
costs of post-2012 regimes
Here we use the cost-model:
cost-optimal mixes of greenhouse gas for total
reductions (6 GHGs) every 5 year periods
least costs approach using on MAC curves
Not over time
 SiMCaP (ETH Zurich)
calculates parameterised emission pathways to achieve
predefined climate targets, like 400ppm CO2eq
Climate calculations by simple climate model
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Method: FAIR-SiMCaP
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Basic assumptions
 Three baseline scenarios:
 IMAGE-B1 (IPCC B1, MACs B1 & LUCF: B1)
 CPI (middle IPCC, MACs CPI & LUCF: CPI)
 CPI+tech (MACs additional technological
improvements) & LUCF: B1)
 Rationale behind CPI+tech:
1. Current studies show more abatements are possible
2. More optimistic, simple assumptions for the MACs
(e.g. energy CO2 MACs now additional improvement of
0.2%/year)
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Basic assumptions (continued)
 In order to avoid global emission reduction rates exceeding
3%/year, the default scenarios assume early reductions.
Peak of global emissions in 2015-2020
 Early peaking is technically feasible, costs not too high, but
… political willingness?
 Focus on CO2-equivalent concentration stabilisation levels of
400, 450, 500 and 550 ppm
 The lower concentration levels include overshooting:
 Stabilisation at 400 ppm: Peaking at 480 ppm;
 Stabilisation at 450 ppm: Peaking at 500 ppm;
 Stabilisation at 500 ppm: Peaking at 525 ppm;
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CO2-eq. emissions in Gt C-eq
30
Cost-optimal reduction over GHGs
CO2-eq.
emissions
inGtGtC-eq
25
CO2-eq.
in
C-eq
CO2-eq.emissions
emissions
inGt
C-eq
25
25
450
20
20
 Main
focus on
Sinks
energy-related
COF-gasses
2 reductions
baseline CPI
20 baseline CPI
15
15
15
10
55
N2O
 In short
CH4 terms,
10
potentially
CO2
large
5
incentives
prof ile for
sinks and non0
CO2 GHGs
1995 2020 2045 2070 2095 (cheap
options)
CO2- eq. emissions in Gt C- eq
CP I-tech
0
0
1995
1995
30
25
Sinks
20
F- gasses
2020
2020
2020
2045
2045
15
2070
2070
2070
10
2095
2095
2095
5
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N2O
CH4
CO2
pr of ile
Fossil CO2 emissions
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Other Greenhouse gas Emissions
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Greenhouse gas Concentrations
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Contribution GHGs to net radiative forcing
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Conclusions Part 2
 Presented multi-gas scenarios are roughly within the range of
existing mitigation scenarios.
 The applied method reflects the existing policy-framework and
assumes cost-minimizing achievements of targets in each 5 year
period:
 This results in near-term incentives for non-CO2 reductions and
for sinks
 But in the long-term the focus has to be on reductions in CO2
emissions
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Part 3:
What are the (regional) emission
reduction implications?
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Emission pathways with different baselines
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The default emission pathways
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Change of global GHG emissions (incl. LUCF
CO2 emissions) compared to 1990 level (in %)
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
2020
400ppm
450ppm
500ppm
550ppm
40
20
0
-20
2050
-40
-60
-80
- 10 0
 In 2020, global emissions may increase from 10-25%
above 1990 levels (400-450ppm).
 In 2050, the emissions have to be reduced by 30-60%
OEC D 9 0
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Change of global GHG emissions (excl. LUCF
CO2 emissions) compared to 1990 level (in %)
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
2020
400ppm
450ppm
500ppm
550ppm
40
20
0
-20
2050
-40
-60
-80
- 10 0
OEC D 9 0
 If landuse CO2 emissions decrease, then reduction
needs for the Kyoto gas emissions only (without landuse
CO2) are relaxed by about 10%-15%.
 By 2050,  20-45% below 1990 levels (400-450ppm).
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Change emissions compared to 1990 level in
2020 excl. LUCF CO2 for Multi-Stage regime (%)
40
40
40
40
30
30
30
30
20
20
20
20
10
10
10
10
0
0
0
0
-10
-10
-10
-10
-20
-20
-20
-20
-30
-30
-30
-30
-40
-40
-40
-40
OECD90
global
Annex I
FSU & E. Eur
160
160
160
400ppm
140
140
140
120
120
120
450ppm
100
100
100
80
80
80
60
60
60
40
40
40
20
20
20
0
0
0
500ppm
550ppm
Asia
Africa & Lat. Am
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Non-Annex I
Change emissions compared to 1990 level in
2050 excl. LUCF CO2 for Multi-Stage regime (%)
40
40
40
40
20
20
20
20
0
0
0
0
-20
-20
-20
-20
-40
-40
-40
-40
-60
-60
-60
-60
-80
-80
-80
-80
-100
-100
-100
-100
Global
OECD90
Annex I
FSU & E.Eur
160
160
160
140
140
140
120
120
120
450ppm
100
100
100
80
80
80
500ppm
60
60
60
40
40
40
20
20
20
0
0
0
400ppm
550ppm
Asia
Africa & Lat. Am
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Non-Annex I
Conclusions Part 3 (Global)
 Overall global emissions (Kyoto gas emissions +
landuse CO2):
 400ppm CO2eq: 50% to 60% below 1990 by 2050
 450ppm CO2eq: 30% to 40% below 1990 by 2050
 Assuming landuse CO2 emission decrease as
specified, needed global Kyoto gas emissions
reductions are less:
 400ppm CO2eq: 35% to 45% below 1990 by 2050
 450ppm CO2eq: 15% to 25% below 1990 by 2050
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Conclusions Part 3 (Regional)
 Focusing on Kyoto gas emissions excluding landuse
emissions:
 In 2020, Annex I emissions need to be reduced ~
30% below 1990 levels for 400ppm, and ~15%
450ppm.
 The reductions are differentiated amongst the Parties,
Annex I takes the lead, followed by the more advance
developing countries, and then the low-income
countries.
 For meeting the lower concentration levels major
developing countries have to participate in the
reductions between 2015 and 2025
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Part 4:
What is the impact of further delay
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The effect of delay: 450ppm
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The effect of delay: 400ppm
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The effect of delay: 400ppm
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Conclusions Part 4
 A delay of global action of just five years matters.
 Global emissions will have to peak in 10 to 15 years to limit
the risk of overshooting 2°C to reasonable levels.
 The consequence of delay are:
 Lower absolute emissions after around 2040
 Steeper maximal reduction rates already from 2020 /
2025
 “Delaying action for a decade, or even just years, is not a
serious option” (Sir David King, Sience,9 January 2004)
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Overall conclusions
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Overall conclusions
 Multi-gas mitigation pathways
 550 ppm CO2 eq. is “unlikely” to meet the 2°C target
 Limiting the risk to overshoot 2°C to less then 33%
requires stabilization at approximately 400ppm.
 It seems necessary, that global emissions peak
before 2020 to achieve 400 or 450ppm stabilization
levels. Cost of delay potentially very high.
 This is followed by reductions in the order of 30% to
60% (incl. land use CO2 emissions) in 2050
compared to 1990 levels (450/400ppm CO2eq).
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Overall conclusions (continued)
 Regional emission reductions depend on:
 emissions growth in the baseline
 allocation scheme for differentiated commitments
 abatement potential and reduction costs
 In 2020, Annex I emission need to be approximately 30%
below 1990 levels for 400ppm, and approximately 20%
lower for 450ppm stabilization.
 For meeting the lower concentration levels, major
developing countries have to participate in the reductions
between 2015 and 2025
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Reminder - Disclaimer
 The presented work is part of a longer term project.
 Cost estimates, in particular non-fossil CO2, will be
explored in more detail (implementation barriers).
 Cost of delayed pathways will be explored with
dynamic energy model TIMER (inertia, technological
improvements, forgone learning effects)
 Work in progress
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Thank you!
 Contact:
 [email protected]
 [email protected]
 Presentation will be made available from
www.rivm.nl/ieweb/
www.simcap.org
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