Download Changing Climate and Increased Volatility. What it Means for the

Changing Climate and
Increased Volatility
What it Means for the Energy Sector in the Future
April 3, 2014
Jeff Johnson, Chief Science Officer
There is no doubt that the climate has changed,
and it will continue to change.
More importantly though, volatility has increased.
Topics
●What is climate?
●A century of warming
●Climate is inherently variable
●Natural causes of climate change
●Human influences on the climate system
●Changing volatility and extreme weather
●Impacts from increased climate volatility
●Outlook for the future
●Summary
Schneider Electric -Cloud Services -Jeff Johnson – 2014
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What is Climate?
● Weather is represented by what the conditions of the atmosphere are
over a short period of time
● Climate is the Average weather in a place over many years
● Climate represents a range of possible weather conditions
● Climate is dependent on forcing conditions, such as land/ocean, the
sun, ice caps, rainforests, etc.
● This difference between weather and climate is a measure of time
“Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.“
Schneider Electric -Cloud Services -Jeff Johnson – 2014
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The Global Climate Has Warmed
• Earth’s climate has always undergone changes
• Climate Change has been discussed and researched for
several decades, but many questions remain about causes
and effects
• The past century has shown a record of warmer temperatures
on a global scale (1.40F/.80C)
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Climate is Highly Variable
● Natural cycles on seasonal time scales impact the climate and produce natural variability
● El Nino/La Nina
El Niño
La Nina jet
La Niña
El Nino jet
● NAO
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Climate is Highly Variable
Natural cycles on yearly and multi-decadal time scales impact the climate
● Atlantic and Pacific Ocean Warm/Cold Phases
Warm ATL
warms NH
AMO Index
● Solar Cycles
Current cycle is
weak
● Volcanism
1992 volcano
cooling
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SO2 from Mt. Pinatubo, 1991
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AMO/PDO Cycles and Drought
Atlantic & Pacific Ocean Cycles
+PDO/-AMO
+PDO/+AMO
Pacific Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
-PDO/-AMO
-PDO/+AMO
Current phases
http://www.pnas.org/content/101/12/4136.full.pdf
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Human Activity Influences Climate
● Human behavior can influence regional climate change in several ways
including land-use changes
Deforestation, agriculture, urbanization
change regional climate
1979-2003
Deg.C/Decade
Increased drainage
Change in Forest Extent
2000-12
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Greenhouse gas emissions have
increased over the past century
GH Gases in Atmosphere
Water Vapor - 95%
CO2 - 4%
CO2 is only very slowly removed by
natural processes
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Global Carbon Emissions
2009 Totals and Change From Previous Year
Schneider Electric -Cloud Services -Jeff Johnson – 2014
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jan/31/pollution-carbon-emissions
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What Does All This Mean For Now?
● Much has been learned about climate change, but many questions
remain unsolved
● While there is evidence for warming over the past 100 years, model
projections for the future have not worked out as well as expected
● A more important question has arisen surrounding increased volatility
and extreme weather in recent years
● This could be a natural cycle or one that is also being influenced by
human activities
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Recent Increased Volatility
●Weather and Climate have become more volatile recently.
●Extreme weather events have become more frequent than
natural variability would suggest
●Outlier events have occurred before, but recent events
suggest a more active period
●These events have produced significant impacts as society
faces greater risks from increasing exposure and
vulnerability
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Examples of Greater Volatility & Changes
●Warmer seasons are extended
●Increased incidence of extreme dryness or wetness
●More persistent periods of abnormally warm or cold weather
●Increased frequency of extreme rainfall events
●More concentrated periods of severe weather
●Extreme heat has increased, but extreme cold still occurs
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Recent Increased Volatility
● Possible newly-linked reason:
● Polar regions have warmed the most, reducing the N/S temperature difference,
which leads to:
● Jetstream patterns that are slower moving, blockier and more amplified, making
anomalous weather patterns (e.g. heat waves, floods and droughts) more frequent
Weaker
Jetstream
Warmer
Last 10 years
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Higher Pressure in the Arctic Region
Over the Past Decade
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Example of a Recent Blocking Pattern
Winter 2013/14
Displaced cold
Polar Vortex
Warm blocking
Upper Ridge
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U.S. Annual Climate Extremes Index
A way to quantify extreme weather occurrences
Index =% of U.S. with:
Max/min T extremes
Drought
1 Day Rainfall extremes
Days w-w/o rainfall
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Percent of U.S. Experiencing Extreme Rainfall
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Extreme Winter Cold Dropped Off After 1980
But……then there was this past winter!
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4-Day Heat/Cold Wave Trends
(1 in 5 year occurrences)
Heat Waves Are More Common, Cold Waves Are Less Frequent
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00066.1
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Outliers Can Also Mean Very Quiet Periods
Record Time Between U.S. Major
Hurricane Landfalls (8-9 years)
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2013 Was Very Quiet for Tornadoes
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What Does the Future Hold?
● An increase in extended very warm or cold periods
● Winter cold in U.S. AK and Europe previous winters; very warm US 03/12.
● An increase in wildfires
● Hot, dry conditions increase the risk for wildfires. Western U.S. drought puts that area
in greater danger.
● Increased flooding
● The 2007 IPCC report concludes that intense rain events have increased in
frequency during the last 50 years. Land-use changes increase run-off.
● Increased drought
● The percentage of Earth's surface suffering drought has more than doubled since the
1970s. Drought is cyclical, and has been worse in the past.
● More intense hurricanes possible - but not yet a reality
● As the oceans warm, scientists predict that hurricane intensity could increase. Higher
sea levels from warmer water make storm surges a greater risk to low-lying coastal
cities.
● More Black Swan Events?
● The event is a surprise (to the observer).
● The event has a major effect.
● After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have
been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation
programs. The same is true for the personal perception by individuals.
● Need to have greater imagination for the unexpected, big outlier events to occur
(e.g. Sandy, NM/TX 2011 extreme cold, 100-500 year floods and storms)
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Summary
• Fully understanding climate change is difficult and complex
• Sorting out natural vs. man-made influences is elusive
• Climate sensitivity to CO2 is lower than projected
• More disruptive weather events are occurring
• There is a need for greater risk awareness for the probability
of increased weather volatility and extreme weather
• Need to consider a longer time-horizon for extreme events
• Adaptation and preparation for greater risks is a reasonable
course of action
• Expect the unexpected