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Environmental Security – Climate Change---Security Assessment for the Balkans W. Chris King, Ph.D. P.E. Brigadier General, US Army retired Dean of Academics, US Army Command and General Staff College Fort Leavenworth, Kansas Featuring work from MAJ Kosta Delev, MMAS, CGSC, 2015 CPT Kuman Gerovski, MMAS, CGSC, 2016 HOT NEWS Global Climate Emergency Declared June 30, 2016 SOURCE: Robert Scribbler and University of Ottawa researcher Paul Beckwith For all history Today Goals of this Session Understand the concepts of Environmental Security and climate change as strategic defense and security threat for all nations of the world. Appreciate the relationship between key environmental issues, and peace and stability in the World Use the Nile River as a case study to understand the concepts of environmental security. Apply to an environmental security assessment for Balkan region. Highlight climate change by examining the IPCC 5th AR. Conduct a strategic security assessment of the IPCC report. Apply to Bulgaria. Examine the impacts of the recent Paris Climate Summit-- COP 21 Defining Environmental Security The Concept of Environmental Security Peace is not the absence of conflict, but the maintenance of a safe and secure environment capable of providing for people’s basic human needs in a sustainable way; And, there are human induced changes in the environment of such an impact that they pose threats to stability in many places in the world. This is not new! “ …national security is not just about fighting forces and weaponry. It relates to watersheds, croplands, forests, genetic resources, climate and other factors that rarely figure in the minds of military experts and political leaders,” Norman Myers, The Environmentalist, 1986 Hierarchy of Human Values Life Food = Arable lands Water = clean and sufficient Absence of disease Basic energy needs Safety Liberty - Freedom to choose Culture Religion Government ???? Pursuit of Happiness Providing life sustaining conditions is a basic human pursuit and this defines environmental security An Important Fact – the most important fact? Where is most of the world? Where in the ‘Hierarchy of Human Need’ do you think most of the world’s 7.2 billion people exist? And where do you(we) live? Science of Environmental Security Water as a Scarce Resource - Fresh Water - Oceans Air - Climate change - El Nino / La Nina - Ozone depletion in the stratosphere - Toxic air pollutants Land Use – protection of Arable lands - Deforestation-- Biodiversity and the rainforests - Desertification - Waste disposal – hazardous and solid wastes ES Analysis Afghanistan Facts 23.8 million, 12.3 million males -44m by 2025 13 % access to safe drinking water 39L/day/person (minimum std is 50) 21% access to sanitation in 1970, 20% today Management of solid and hazardous waste does NOT exist. Less than 3 % forest Percent arable lands – 12 % including 3 % in forests 3.88 % growth rate, 3rd in the world 2.7 % RNI 6.90 fertility rate, 8th in the world Life expectancy -43.1 years Median age – 18 years Infant mortality rate -147 Food production dropped by 40% 1995 to 2000 Air Quality - ??? Afghanistan = 7th worst failed state and bottom 10 worst environmental conditions in the world The Nile – A Case Study YEARLY FLOW RAINFALL 0 in/yr 10 in/yr 20 in/yr 30 in/yr At Aswan 91 BCM Atbara R 12 BCM Blue Nile 75 BCM White Nile 28 BCM 40 – 80 in/yr Water Demands and Population in the Nile River Basin Country Burundi Per capita (M3 Per Person Per Year) Population in 2011 (millions) Projected Population in 2050 Current Water Demand Projected Water Demand 2050 37 8.383 27.149 0.3 BCM 1 BCM 1,013 81.121 137.873 82 BCM 140 BCM Ethiopia 40 82.950 278.283 3.3 BCM 11 BCM Rwanda 10 10.624 27.506 0.1 BCM 0.3 BCM South Sudan* 1,879 8 to 15. 30.0 22 BCM 56 BCM Sudan 1,879 34.000 67.000 63 BCM 126 BCM 13 33.425 128.008 0.4 BCM 1.7 BCM 265.503 696.781 171.1 BCM 336 BCM Egypt Uganda totals Source: World Bank. “Africa Development Indicators,” 2004, http://publications.world bank.org/ (accessed 27 March 2011). Population data and growth rates from CIA Fact Book. Note: DNI study uses 1,000 M3 / person/ yr as demand factor Figure 1. Maritza-Evros-Meric Sub-basin with Arda and Ergene Rivers Source: International Network of Water-Environment Centres for the Balkans, “MaritzaEvros-Meric Sub-Basin With Arda and Ergene Rivers,” accessed 13 October 2014, http://www.inweb.gr/workshops2/sub_basins/13_14_15_Evros_Ardas_Ergene.html “CLIMATE CHANGE AND POOR WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT WILL HAVE SERIOUS SECURITY IMPLICATIONS IN THE BALKAN PENINSULA” a masters thesis by KOSTA DELEV, CAPTAIN, BULGARIAN ARMY The aim of this paper is to define the security threats for the Balkan Peninsula caused by climate change and poor water resource management. This research focuses on surface rather than groundwater and specifically explore the Maritza and Tundja Rivers which form the border area between Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey. The paper details how poor water management in these rivers will create security threats. Using the mixed methodology to analyze the collected data, the results of the research shows that climate change and population growth will strain the environment of the Balkan Peninsula, and it will be followed by resource crises. The biggest threat is water scarcity. MAJ Delev’s Recommendations For this reason, the establishment of a new center only between Bulgaria, Greece, and Turkey is proposed. The new center for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation (CCAM) between the three countries should be established, regulated, and funded from the neighboring countries. This should be an independent organization, with full support from the countries, focused on the climate change impact to the region. This combined center would advise and assist the governments with climate change issues. This combined center or CCAM has to have a few essential and critical responsibilities: 1. To assess and define the climate change impact to the region. 2. To define the risks and threats that climate change creates. 3. To create a long term strategy for adaptation and mitigation for the climate change. 4. To create a short-term strategy for immediate actions to avoid or decrease the impact of climate change. 5. The strategy should be linked with funding. To delegate authorities to apply for funding from the three governments, the EU, or the International Monetary Fund. 6. To synchronize the operations between the three countries before, during, and after the disaster happens, even being the lead element of that. 7. To delegate authorities to synchronize and work with the NATO center of excellence and EU structures. 8. To synchronize and propose big projects linked with the climate change adaptation and mitigation. Climate Change --Today Data from the 5th Report Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2014 (1st Report, 1990) Is this the future with climate change ? Greenhouse gases are those that can absorb and emit infrared radiation (heat), but not radiation in or near the visible spectrum (sun’s energy). In order, the most abundant greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are: Water vapor (H2O) Carbon dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous oxide (N2O) Ozone (O3) CFCs Projected Changes in the Water Cycle NOAA/NCDC IPCC DATA from 27 September 2014 Science Report It must also be noted that when it rains is also changing IPCC DATA from 27 September 2014 Science Report Building a Crystal Ball for the Future of CC Or ---Why can’t someone just tell us what is going to happen?? Strategic Threat Assessment of the Key Climate Change Drivers Climate-Related Driver Key Impacts Security and Defense Impact Temperature warming: Increase of disease (vector and water-borne), stress Increase of humanitarian support missions, refugee support, medical 0.85 0 C in 2012, on water resources, loss of arable lands, reduced resources to respond to epidemic disease, potential for conflict 1.0 – 3.7 0C by 2100 food production, Extreme temperature: highest in Increased mortality and health and well-being Medical logistics support, increase of humanitarian support missions, Asia, Europe, Australia, issues, stress water resources, reduced crops security operations (ops) and potential for conflict Drying trend: global, highest in Food security threats, water resource stress, Support migrations, humanitarian ops, potential for conflict. Extreme precipitation: highest in Flood damage to infrastructure, loss of life, Increase of humanitarian support missions, large-scale logistics support, mid-latitudes and wet tropics by increased infectious and vector borne disease medical ops in respond to epidemic disease, security ops. Precipitation: More in the high Water resource stress, loss of arable land, public Increase of humanitarian support missions, logistics support, medical latitudes and at the equator. Drier health issues, water quality degradation support to respond to epidemic disease, security ops, potential for mid-latitudes 2100. in mid-latitudes and sub-tropics conflict, engineering support. Snow and ice cover: Ice – 15 -85 % Loss of snow and ice stresses water resources, Increase of humanitarian support missions, large-scale logistics support, reduction by 2100. Snow- 7-25 % medical resources to respond to epidemic disease, border security ops. increased rate of warming, flooding and droughts loss by 2100 Damaging cyclone: most likely in Loss of life and property damage, extreme flooding, Increase of humanitarian support missions, security ops, engineering Western North Pacific and Atlantic increased disease following disaster Sea level: 0.19 M in 2010, 0.4-.63 Flooding/property damage, loss of coastal and island Refugee support, large scale logistics support, security ops, reconstruction support, disaster medical relief, logistics support, Climate-Related Key Impacts Security and Defense Impact Driver Temperature Increased disease rates Increase of humanitarian support warming: (vector and water-borne), missions, refugee support, medical 0.85 0 C in 2012, stress on water resources, resources to respond to epidemic 1.0 – 3.7 0C by loss of arable lands, reduced disease, potential for conflict 2100 food production, Climate-Related Key Impacts Security and Defense Impact Driver Precipitation: Water resource stress, loss of Increase of humanitarian support More in the high arable land, public health missions, logistics support, medical latitudes and at the issues, water quality support to respond to epidemic disease, equator. Drier in security ops, potential for conflict, mid-latitudes and sub-tropics degradation engineering support. Climate-Related Key Impacts Security and Defense Impact Driver Snow and ice cover: Loss of snow and ice stresses Increase of humanitarian support Ice – 15 -85 % water resources, increased reduction by 2100. rate of warming, flooding and medical resources to respond to Snow- 7-25 % loss droughts by 2100 missions, large-scale logistics support, epidemic disease, border security ops. 3.2 Billion people at risk Drying and Ice Loss– 3.2 billion people Special Area Snow of Concern Precipitation change Floods & Droughts Sea Level Rise Extreme weather “Climate change impact on the southeastern Europe security environment and the increasing role of the Bulgarian Army as the world warms.” * Masters Thesis CGSC, May 2016, by CPT Kuman Gerovski PLOVDIV SOFIA Table 1. Variation of the key impacts of climate change in Bulgaria by regions Climate-Related Drivers Temperature warming: 7.0-9.0°C in 2100 Human and Natural Impacts A great impact on human life, health, food and water security. Increase the diseases, infections, and mortality. Decrease quality of life. Security Implications Social insecurity based on increased mortality and negative population growth rate in the country. Drying trend: Increase summer season A great impact on human life, health, food and water security Stress on water resources and food production. Decrease quality of life. Significant prerequisite for human migration flows. Extreme precipitation: Increase As economic, cultural and social center of Bulgaria, each extreme precipitation will have great impact on the economic sphere and human life. Impact on water quality, manufacturing industry, and water transport. Flood damages to the existing infrastructure and property. Loss of life, livelihood Breakdown of infrastructure networks and critical services such as electricity, water supply, and health and emergency services. Temperature warming: 7.0-9.0°C in 2100 As major agricultural region all impacts on the food production and agriculture will have severe effects in the area. Insect and plant pests may survive or even reproduce more often each year if cold winters no longer keep them in check. New pests may also invade each region as temperature and humidity conditions change. Extreme Temperature highest changes Drying trend: Increase summer season Reduced food production. The productivity of crops and livestock, including milk yields, may decline because of drought-related stress. Depending on rain-fed agriculture the region may require irrigation, bringing higher costs and conflict over access to water. Prime growing temperatures may shift to higher latitudes, where soil and nutrients may Increased the number of Muslim migrants to the region. Significant negative social outcomes in resourcedependent systems. Temporary or permanent displaced people, refugees, relocated communities, and migration. Increased risk of newly emerging pathogen or disease situation. Risks of tension over access to energy supply. Potential to increase rivalry between regions over shared resources. For general security implication see Table 3. For general implication For general implication security see Table 3. security see Table 3. VARNA Extreme precipitation increase all over the region BURGAS Extreme snowfall Extreme precipitation increase all over the region PLEVEN Temperature warming: 7.0-9.0°C in 2100 Major summer tourist destination. All impacts on infrastructure, water and food security will have severe impacts for the region. Impact on water quality, manufacturing industry, and water transport. Flood damages to the existing infrastructure and property. Loss of life, livelihood Higher temperatures may mean that water is too warm to cool “Kozloduy” nuclear power plant, leading to power brownouts. For general security implication see Table 3. For general security implication see Table 3. Increased the number of Muslim migrants to the region. For general security implication see Table 3. Turmoil caused by insufficient resources, food production, and water insecurity. As another major agricultural region all impacts on the food production and agriculture will have severe effects in the area. Extreme snowfall Extreme Temperature highest changes SANDANSKI Major summer tourist destination. All impacts on infrastructure, water and food security will have severe impacts for the region. Landslides Municipal sewer systems may overflow during extreme rainfall events, gushing untreated sewage into drinking water supplies. Damages to the existing infrastructure Precipitation decrease: 30-40 percent Damages to the existing infrastructure Loss of life, livelihood Stress on water resources and food production. Direct and Indirect effect on biodiversity, wildfires, pests and pathogens. Reduced food production. Direct negative effect on yields, product quality, agricultural pests, diseases, and weeds, and livestock. Affect the amount of surface water and irrigation. For general implication For general implication security see Table 3. security see Table 3. For general security implication see Table 3. Key Findings from CPT Gerovski’s Research “Given the primary mission and tasks of the Bulgarian Army, it is very likely for the Bulgarian Army to be involved in border and humanitarian issues, when the primary internal security departments and agencies exceed their capacity in shaping and supporting Bulgarian security environment. Furthermore, reshaping Bulgarian Army capability might be required in order to create capable and competent balanced forces, with organization, equipment, and combat training allowing not only adequate participation within the full spectrum of NATO operations, but also providing adequate support to the national and local authorities while dealing with certain non-military threats and crisis response operations within the territory of the country. Undeniably, the Bulgarian Government comprehensive approach to problem solving within projected complex, deteriorated environment defined by natural disaster or climate induced threats would involve Bulgarian Army and its components, assets, and capabilities in support of the population of Bulgaria. The Bulgarian Army participation would include indirect and direct contribution to the national security environment together or separate from the internal security defense departments and agencies. The indirect approach would involve advising, training and planning of disaster response missions, while the direct approach would involve straight contribution and participation of the Bulgarian Army into missions of support to the national security. The most adequate contribution of the Bulgarian Army to the national security environment while dealing with climate-related impacts would involve timely, well-organized, and coordinated efforts while providing emergency logistics support, transportation, humanitarian assistance, or certain short-term reconstruction and engineering projects.” COP 21 - (Conference of Parties to the UN Framework on CC of 1994) 196 countries participated All delegates signed an agreement (12 pages) which has the goals to: limit global warming to less than 2 degrees C. 0 net human GHG by 2100 Pursue 1.5 degree limit Nationally determined contributions to GHG reductions!!! Global stocktake (review every 5 years) Adaptation and mitigations per AR5 Money for developing nations to build clean systems and loss and damage (100 billion) Must be signed by 55 nations that represent 55% of the current GHG emissions. Summary Security is a much larger issue than wielding military power Peace is not the absence of war, but the existence of stable human communities who have their basic needs satisfied Protecting peace means assuring regional stability Environmental degradation is a major threat to peace and stability in the world Solutions must work toward curing the basic problems not treating symptoms Climate Change We are going to adapt to the consequences of GHG emissions How we mitigate the impacts of future climate change will alter our future security Climate change is truly a world scale issue where win together or everyone loses; however, the weakest nations suffer most. Military forces must understand the problems and plan for them, just as they do for other internal and external threats to National Security. US Precipitation Patterns in the last 50 years Precipitation has increased an average of about 5 percent over the past 50 years. Projections of future precipitation generally indicate that northern areas will become wetter, and southern areas, particularly in the West, will become drier. -40 % +40 % 2080 – 2099 PREDICTIONS Must consider when the precipitations falls • Summer drier across the US • Winter drier in the south • Fall much drier in Midwest • Spring drier in all but north Observed Change in Annual Average Precipitation 1958 to 2008 Environmental Security Analysis 2007 and 2011 FSI FSI 2007 and 2011 RNI % Sudan (3) 2.9 6.0 F F Iraq (9) 3.1 5.5 D Somalia (1) 2.5 6.3 Zimbabwe (6) 1.5 Chad (2) Fertility rate Water Data Arable land Forest Data Crops ES Risk F F Extreme D F D High F F F F Extreme 3.7 F D F- F High 3.1 6.6 F F F F Extreme Ivory Coast (10) 2.3 5.4 F C NA F High Dem Rep of the Congo (4) 3.2 7.2 F C C F High Afghanistan (7) 2.7 6.9 F F F- F Extreme Guinea (11) 2.7 6.2 F D D F High Central Africa Republic (8) 2.7 5.4 F C C F High Haiti (5) 2.5 5.7 F F- F- F Extreme U.S. 0.6 2.0 A B B A Low France 0.6 1.9 A A A A low F= Awful D= Bad C= Average B= Good A= Excellent Just the Facts: IPCC 2014 Atmosphere 0.85 o C from 1880 – 2012 Likely the warmest 30-yr period in 1400 years Ocean 90% of the additional heat has gone into the oceans 0.4 degrees since 1971 –top 75 meters Cryosphere Rate of ice loss – a bunch per decade in Gt Rate of ice loss from Greenland accelerated Arctic sea ice loss 3.5 to 4.1 % per decade Northern Hemisphere snow cover decreased 1.6 % per decade in March and 11% in June (what does mean??) Loss of permafrost Just the Facts #2 Sea Level 0.19 m 1901-2010 Loss of ice + thermal expansion Sea level at the last global warming period was 5M Carbon dioxide, CH4, and N2O exceeded 800,000 year records Extremely likely that ½ of the Temp was GHG driven