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Displaced by the State: The Case of Resettlement Environment and Migration Introduction: The Rebels of Vendée Impacts & Population Displacement Primary Secondary Tertiary 10 • Climate Change Induces Displacement • Impact (e.g. flood, sea level rise) resulting in migration • Adaptation Related Infrastructure Induces Displacement • e.g. Dam, dyke or water transfer canal construction • Displacement in anticipation of climate impacts • In climate hot-spots e.g. Source: Castro et al. 2009 IHDP Open Meeting Presentation Climate-Demography Vulnerability Index Source: Samson, J., D. Berteaux, B.J. McGill and M.M. Humphries. 2011. Geographic disparities and moral hazards in the 11 predicted impacts of climate change on human populations. Global Ecology and Biogeography http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00632.x Likely Impacts of Climate Change Requiring Adaptation Infrastructure Impact Potential Adaptation Response Sea level rise, salt-water intrusion Sea walls, dykes, freshwater injection facilities Decreasing water availability, increasing droughts Dams, irrigation works, water transfer schemes, desalination plants Increasing water availability, increasing floods Dams, dykes, levees, flood control infrastructure 12 Climate Change Mitigation Projects Objective Potential Mitigation Response Reduce GHG emissions Hydroelectric facilities, large-scale wind farms Develop biofuels Biofuel plantations (jatropha, sugar cane, soy, corn) Increase “sinks” for GHGs Forest plantations Geoengineering Injecting H2S or SO2 high in the stratosphere, tampering with ocean albedo, and possibly terrestrial 13 Resettlement Is Already Occurring Desertification Inner Mongolia: China’s “ecological reinstallation” program aims to fight desertification in drought-prone grasslands by sedenterizing pastoralists River Basins/Coastal Mekong: Vietnam has moved communities from river bank to areas further back Zambezi: Mozambique has promoted voluntary resettlement from flood plain to higher ground Alaska: Indigenous communities along the coast Coastal Honduras: Garifuna communities settled inland Murik Lakes, PNG: Failed resettlement related to SLR SISes Maldives: Government promotes resettlement from outer islands to principal islands Carteret Islands, PNG: Failed resettlement related to SLR Kiribati: Buying land in Fiji 14 Learning from the Three-Gorges Dam Needs (1) 1. 2. 3. 4. 16 Legal protections: Establish legal frameworks for climate change resettlement to protect welfare and human rights of affected populations Participation: Involvement of affected communities, in both source and destination areas, in assessments and decisions regarding resettlement locations, compensation, and development programs Equity: The process needs to be fair and equitable for the community, with every effort made to improve livelihoods Capacity building: Interdisciplinary training for resettlement professionals that includes economics, anthropology, public health, and case studies Needs (2) 5. 6. 7. 17 Impact assessments: Baseline environmental, health, and social IAs to establish benchmarks for evaluating resettlement performance through monitoring and evaluation programs Research: Research to adapt existing knowledge on resettlement to the special case of climate related resettlement, with particular reference to disaster-related resettlement and learning from incipient climate-related resettlement Finance: Establishment of financial mechanisms for capacity building and anticipatory planning in developing countries exposed most to climate risks, with joint funding by donors and the exposed countries themselves, since many M&A projects will not generate revenues that could offset costs Conclusions Resettlement should be a last resort in climate adaptation, but the reality is that it is already occurring in some countries and this trend is likely to intensify. We can learn from past mistakes Managing risk is going to be increasingly central in a 2+ or 4+ degree world Expect the unexpected: Many of the most damaging impacts of large infrastructure and DFDR are unforeseen Need to evaluate pros and cons of different models Laissez-faire approach (e.g. US post-Katrina, many developing countries) Top-down “environmental migration” approach of China Resettlement of refugee communities (US and Australia) 18