Download (Mahangu) crop

POLICY OBJECTIVES
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
Introduction
There is a large risk that the continued release of greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere will cause a range of adverse impacts including global warming, sea
level rise, increase of storms, changes in historical patterns of rainfall (and drought),
threats to endangered habitats and the possible spread of contagious diseases.
Even if the countries of the world agree to take aggressive steps to stabilize or
reduce CO2 emissions over the next twenty to fifty years, there is still a strong
possibility that the cumulative effects of past greenhouse gas emissions will cause
sea level to rise and storms to intensify for at least the next several decades, and
probably longer (Susskind, 2009).
Namibia is an arid country in south-western Africa with a total land area of 824 268
km2 (UNAM, 2008). About 70% of Namibians are directly dependent on natural
resources to sustain their daily lives: wood serves as building material, fuel and light,
cattle is not only a source of meat, but also milk, drought power and dung for
fertilization, the veld and forests of Namibia do not only provide timber but also
additional food stuffs, medicinal plants, and ultimately, water is the critical resource
to sustain resources as well as livelihoods (Dirkx et al, 2008). The two most
predominant features of Namibia’s climate are the scarcity and unpredictability of its
rainfall. Climate variations, chiefly in the form of droughts and to a lesser degree
floods, have a major impact on agriculture. Since a large proportion of the population
lives in rural areas, drought usually has devastating effects on commercial
agricultural productivity and the rural poor (Christelis and Struckmeier, 2001),
causing considerable stock losses and reduced grain production (UNAM, 2008).
3.1.3 Climate Change in Namibia
Temperatures in Namibia have been increasing at three times the global mean
temperature increases reported for the 20th century. The temperature rise predicted
for 2100 ranges from 2 to 6°C. Particularly in the central regions, lower rainfall is
expected, while overall rainfall is projected to become even more variable than it is
now. Even if rainfall levels changes, rises in temperature will boost evaporation
rates, leading to severe water shortages. Poor rural pastoralist and dry land
populations will be affected most. The frequency and intensity of extreme events
such as droughts are likely to increase Reid et al, (2007).
Predicted changes in climate for Namibia have implications for agricultural
productivity. With changes in precipitation and hydrology, temperature, length of
growing season and frequency of extreme weather events, considerable efforts
would be required to prepare Namibia to deal with climate-related impacts in
agriculture.
There is sufficient evidence suggesting significant changes in global climate over the
past century, and that this phenomenon will continue throughout the 21st century
due to anthropogenic activities as well as natural cycles. UNAM (2008) says climate
change predictions for Namibia by the 2050s decade include:
1. Expected increase in potential evapo-transpiration of 4% - 8% for central and
eastern
2. Namibia, 8% - 12% for North Central Regions (NCR), and 12% - 16% for the
Caprivi Region
3. An anticipated decrease of up to 5% in mean annual precipitation, with an
increased variability of between 5% and 10%;
4. Shortened length of the rainy season.
3.1.4 Agriculture sector in Namibia
Agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperatures
eventually reduce yields of desirable crops while encouraging weed and pest
proliferation. Changes in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of short-run
crop failures and long-run production declines. Although there will be gains in some
crops in some regions of the world, the overall impacts of climate change on
agriculture are expected to be negative, threatening global food security says Dirkx
et al (2008). Water availability is the most important factor limiting agricultural
production in Namibia. One of the most significant impacts of climate change is likely
to be on the hydrological system, and hence on river flows and water resources of
the country. This is especially important given the semi-arid nature of the country,
where water resources are very sensitive to climate variability and change (UNAM,
2008). Warming increases land surface drying and the potential incidence and
sternness of droughts. Decreased land precipitation and increased temperatures that
enhance evapo-transpiration and drying are important factors that are contributing to
more droughts. Average annual rainfall in Namibia varies from less than 20 mm on
the Atlantic coast to 600 mm in the northeast, and only 8% of the country receives
more than 500 mm in average rainfall annually (Christelis and Struckmeier, 2001).
3.1.5 Pearl Millet (Mahangu) crop
Millets are some of the oldest of cultivated crops. The term millet is applied to
various grass crops whose seeds are harvested for food or feed. The five millet
species of commercial importance are proso, foxtail, barnyard, browntop and pearl.
Pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum) locally referred to as Mahangu, originated in the
African savannah and grown since prehistoric time. It is grown extensively in Africa,
Asia, India and Near East as a food grain. Millets are annual grasses often grown as
catch crops where other crops have failed or planting is delayed due to unfavorable
weather. Millets require warm temperatures for germination and development and
are sensitive to the cold. They germinate well at soil temperatures of 23 to 32 degree
Celsius (Dewey et al, 2009). Emergence occurs in 2 to 4 days under favorable
conditions. Pearl millet can be grown on a wide variety of soils ranging from clay
loams to deep sands. Yields and grain quality are best on deep, well-drained
productive soils. Dewey et al (2009) warns that millet should not grow on soils prone
to "water logging" in wet seasons as this will cause shallow rooting, low seed protein
and poor yields.
Pearl millet is one of the most drought resistant grains produced in Namibia. It is able
to grow in areas that experience frequent periods of dry weather during either the
vegetative or reproductive phases. Pearl millet appears to be more tolerant of sandy
and acidic soils than other millet crops. It is deep-rooted and can use residual
nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium and, therefore, may not need the levels of
fertility required by other millet grains (Dirkx et al, 2008). Seedling development
occurs during the first two to four weeks, and rapid stalk development occurs soon
after. Tillering may be extensive in sparse stands. Flowering usually begins at 40 to
50 days after emergence, and the plant reaches physiological maturity by 75 to 85
days after emergence. Growth and maturation are usually hastened with late
plantings (Dewey et al, 2009). Good weed control is necessary for a successful
crop, and it is particularly important to control early emerging weeds.
Stink bugs and other insects may require control on developing grain heads. Stink
bug feeding causes small and shriveled seed. Corn earworms, webworms, and fall
armyworms can also destroy and damage seed. Economic yield loss may occur
when 15 percent or more of the grain heads are infested. Chinch bug is the main
insect pest of grain millet, and control is vital to a successful crop.
Chinch bugs can damage pearl millet any time from the seedling stage to the soft
dough stage. Damaged plants can have a drought-stressed appearance, and
generalized death of lower leaves. Early infestations can cause severe stand loss.
Heavy infestations can also wither and kill plants from before flowering through grain
filling (Bunting et al, 2007).
The period of 2005-2008 has been selected as it is the year that climate change
became a hot debate in the country. The year period of the study assesses both the
National Development Plan 2 and 3 (NDP 2 and 3), and hence carries over the
mistakes of NDP 2 over to NDP 3 regarding climate change related issues. The year
2005 was a year of drought with several farmers loosing many of their livestock and
producing very little crop sufficiency. While the year 2008, the country experienced
one of its major rainfall volumes leading to severe flooding in the country. The period
of 2005-2008 also experienced some of the coldest temperatures and weather turn
around for the country and hence opened most of the policy making leaders to
issues of climate change.
The Mahangu crop is one of Namibia’s main productive and succeeding agriculture
as it has managed to grow in the country’s dry lands (Oshikoto, Ohangwena,
Omusati, Oshana, Kavango and Caprivi). This research concentrates on the
Mahangu plantations of the Northern Central Regions including Kavango and
Caprivi. The research shall look at the cost of mahangu loss that has resulted out of
floods, drought and increase of pests due to weather changes (climate change).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Climate Change risk and vulnerability in Namibia’s cropping area
In Namibia, events like droughts and floods occur more frequently due to the
increase in temperature which is predicted in the whole country. Large amount of
rainfall is expected to occur in a short period time of rain season, due to the
predicted increase of late summer convective rainfall over Namibia. Therefore this
might have implications for the frequency of floods in the northern regions, being
Caprivi, Kavango, Ohangwena, Omusati, Oshana and Oshikoto Region (DEM,
2008). The six affected regions by floods are the main producers of Mahangu (pearl
millet) and maize grain and thus contributing to the strategic food reserves for the
country. Disruption of farming activities as was the case in 2009 seriously impacted
on both the national and individual household food security.
The flood affected
regions reported destroyed crops and damaged or washed away food reserves on
which rural populations rely. Its indicates that crop harvest is expected to reduce by
between 63% and 67% for the poor households who will face an estimated food gap
of 20-30%, (Dirkx et al, 2008)
Drought tends to be declared in particular localities rather than nationally and, hence,
there is not a definitive list of drought years in Namibia. Major droughts affecting
large portions of the country are said to have occurred in far back in 1930s and for
an extended period in the 1960s, culminate in the 1970/71 season which was
declared the most devastating drought experienced to date. The next disaster
drought occurred from 1982-1984, and this was as a results of poor rainfall in three
consecutive years, and the last one in 1992/93 (Sweet, 1998). However, the
Namibian government has continued to pay out drought relief subsidies in some
parts of the country every year since 1991. Drought is mainly a natural disaster that
causes crop failures, livestock losses and severe socio-economic interference to
humans. And even though drought is a regular occurrence to the Namibian
environment, local droughts are mainly different due to deviations in the local
weather pattern. In comparison, droughts of a regional nature affect large parts of
the southern African subcontinent and are mainly due to changes in global weather
patterns (Sweet, 1998).
Pearl millet (Mahangu) crop distribution
Due to high population in the northern regions, this crop has become a common food
for the communities. Hence the project aims to understand the fact that makes this
crop so popular amongst these regions
Pearl millet is a summer annual crop well-suited for double cropping and rotations.
Seedling development occurs during the first two to four weeks, and rapid stalk
development occurs soon after. Growth and maturation are usually hastened with
late plantings. Pearl millet can be grown on a wide variety of soils ranging from clay
loams to deep sands. Yields and grain quality are best on deep, well-drained
productive soils. It appears that pearl millet responds less to irrigation, hence more
dependant on rainfall. Greatest water use occurs during the bloom and soft dough
stages. A very deep root system and less defined “critical water use period” makes
pearl millet tolerant of short duration drought (Dewey, 2009).
The people in the Northern regions mostly practice subsistence farming and are
largely depended on the Mahangu crop for food sufficiency for personal consumption
(Reid, 2007).
Potential economic loss scenarios
The potential economic losses of Mahangu grain lost (from the regions of the case
study) has not not been identified as the crop has not entered the commercial sector
thus far. The crop is ideally used by the northern regions for subsistence purposes
and only recently entered the market. The six northern regions under investigation
are registered as communal land, hence not much commercial activities are
undertaken.
Table 1: Course grains production (in tonnes)
Maize
Millet
Sorghum
Wheat
Total output
(tonnes)
2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009
26771
38130
64567
49926
55558
53621
58379
49644
83428
72392.4
105648
44450
35512
89026
8510
7629
6128.97
10253
4047
4386
8743
10289
8262
11340
12987
12312
12163
12163
95214
137449
154428.37
178814
116367
105682
168311
Source: MAWF
Table 2: Coarse grain planted area (in hectares)
Maize
Millet
sorghum
Wheat
Total Area (hectares)
Source: MAWF
2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009
23968
25957
25003
26944
25522
27563
27157
256981
252235 237915.25
242877
194788
186197
258981
6595
23480
20837.44
22908
16867
10917
21762
1646
1479
2123
2435
2136
2369
2369
289190
303151 285878.69
295164
239313
227046
310269
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