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The Relationship Between the World’s Food Supply and Global Warming By: Christopher A. Nichol Scope and Sequence What is Global Warming? How Does Global Warming Effect Climate? What is the current state of food production and usage in the world today? How does Food Production effect Global Warming? How does Global Warming effect Food Production? What are some real life examples of the effects of global warming? What do scientists predict for the future? What is Global Warming? Global Warming is an increase in the average temperature of Earth’s near surface air and oceans. http://www.alternate-energy-sources.com/images/driedland2.jpg What Causes Global Warming? http://ncconservationnetwork1.org/img/an2/custom_images/be cause_you_love_nc/cars.JPG http://cache.eb.com/eb/image?id=91641&rendTypeId=4 “Greenhouse Gasses” have shouldered much of the blame for climate change. They include: Carbon Dioxide Methane Nitrous Oxide Deforestation has also contributed to climate change. Current Climate Trends Global Temperatures have risen 0.74°C during the past century. World temperatures could rise by between 1.1 and 6.4 °C during the 21st century (IPCC-2007). http://www.actewagl.com.au/education/_lib/images/Sustainability/Sustaina bility06%20-%20Global%20mean%20surface%20temp.jpg Global Warming, El Niño and Climate El Niño is a periodic disruption of the oceanatmosphere system in the Tropical Pacific. El Niño effects weather and climate around the globe. Global Warming has been implicated is the strengthening of El Niño . http://upload.wikimedia .org/wikipedia/commons /5/5a/El-nino.gif Current Food Usage Maize, wheat and rice account for 43% of caloric intake worldwide. The American consumes 247 lbs. of meat yearly while it is substantially less in developing countries. The world demand on our food resources is steadily rising. http://earthtrends.wri.org/features/view_feature.php?fid=7&theme=6 Resources Spent in Food Production http://www.cast.uark.edu/local/catalog/national/html/SCSphase1.htmldir/SCS _Farmland.html Twenty-five percent of the world's crop land is used for animal husbandry and 38% of the world's harvested grain (oats, maize, barley, soybean) is fed to livestock. 11.3 billion acres are used in food production. Current Food Production - Grains Maize, wheat and rice account for 87% of all grain production. Other grains include sorghums, millets, oats and rye. Many grains are provincial in their production and consumption. http://allergyadvisor.com/Educational/images/CornAndOtherC ereals.gif http://home.nextra.sk/foodfarm/food021/f211.jpg Agriculture and Carbon Dioxide The conversion of wooded/forest lands into rangeland by burning has released 1.4 billion tons of carbon dioxide. http://images.encarta.msn.com/xrefmedia/sharemed/targets/images/pho/t051/T05 1606A.jpg Agriculture and Methane Cattle release 80 million tons of methane per year, and manure decomposition adds 35 million tons per year of methane to the atmosphere. Flooded rice fields are significant source of methane, particularly in the developing countries of Asia. Rice paddies thus accounted for about 3 to 6 percent of the contribution to global warming in the 1980s. http://www.nlebasin.org/images/ActivitiesOnTheNile/images/Animal%20Husb andry,%20Ethiopian_JPG.jpg http://z.about.com/d/goasia/1/0/U/w/1/bali-ricepaddies-IstvanKoospal.jpg Agriculture and Nitrous Oxide Agriculture introduces nitrogenous compounds to the environment in the form of commercial fertilizers, legumes, and crop residues. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that up to 10 million metric tons can be accounted for from Agricultural sources. Atmospheric Concentration of Nitrous Oxide Source: Oxford Brookes University http://www.craigsams.com/pages/martinradcliffe.html Agriculture and Deforestation http://library.thinkquest.org/04oct/02037/deforestation.htm Agriculture is a major reason for Deforestation. The rainforest is most often “cultivated” by slash and burn. Forest is cleared, the cuttings are burned, and crops are planted. This land only remains arable for a few years. Global Warming Effects on Arable Land Area Predicted increases of rainfall in the tropics; possible decreased rainfall in the subtropics and the expansion of the present deserts put our world’s farmland in danger. Source: Global 2000 Sea Level Rise and Farmland Reduction The eventual sealevel rise and subsequent deeper and longer inundation in river and estuary basins will reduce land area that can be cultivated. Florida area with a sea-level rise of 17 ft, estimated to occur if Western Antarctic Ice Sheet collapsed. http://itll.colorado.edu/ITLL/Templates/AntarcticResearch/Research/LESSON1/LESS ON1.htm Global Warming Effects on Soil Fertility • Climate Change could reduce soil fertility by shifting where the climate is suitable for growing. These new area’s soils are not nearly as suitable for agriculture as the current agricultural areas. http://www.ericacbarnett.com/1205map.jpg • The predicted increased of precipitation may increase leaching and reduce fertility. Global Warming, Drought and Agriculture Changes in rainfall patterns in the semiarid regions of the world make it very susceptible to the effects of Global Warming. These semiarid regions are the current “bread baskets” of the world. http://www.lib.utah.edu/gould/2002/lecture.html Possible Global Warming Effects on Crop Productivity Possible Positive Effects Regionally longer growing seasons Reduction of cold temperature effects Increased photosynthesis Possible Negative Effects Higher Temperatures accelerate crop’s through their development Decreased water availability Poor vernaliation FAO Scientific Findings Wheat lacks the ability to adapt and has a decreases yield when exposed to an increase of carbon dioxide and temperature. Other staple crops fare better. In every case studied climate change alone simulations reduced crop productivity. This effect can be reduced and in some regions productivity rises with intense irrigation and fertilization. Global Warming Effects on Livestock A major concern is the increase of vector borne pathogens increasing the spread of disease. If water supply is decreased over grazing can reduce range land and increase erosion. http://www.ramsar.org/pictures/algeria-hodna2.jpg Case Study: The African Famine http://www.liv.ac.uk/~sdb/Safari-2005/Images/1344-el-nino.jpg A stronger El Niño (linked to Global Warming) has been blamed for the drought of 1984-1985 in the Sahel region of Africa. At least 0.5 million people died from the effects of hunger and malnutrition. Case Study: The Brazilian Drought In the early 1990s, five years without rain (blamed on El Niño) led to severe famine in the northeastern Brazilian state of Ceara. More than 2 million people fled this area of Brazil for the coastal cities. There was much civil unrest including looting and riots. http://www.nytimes.com/specials/salgado/home/drought.html Predictions for the Future Studies show that Global Warming will not effect over-all world agriculture as severely as they first believed. The low latitudes will suffer the most negative impact while the higher latitudes should experience an increase in productivity. The range of current crops will move northward. New crop varieties may need to be selected. To maintain productivity irrigation and fertilization may need to be utilized. Works Cited Barney, Gerald O., Jane Blewett, and Kristen Barney. United States. Millenium Institute. Global 2000 Revisited: What Shall We Do? 1993. 25 June 2007 <http://www.millenniuminstitute.net/publications/G2R.html >. Barney, Gerald O. United States. The Global 2000 Report to the President of the US: Entering the 21st Century. 23 May 1980. 25 June 2007. Eckhoff, David W. "Drought Happens: Get Used to It!" University of Utah. University of Utah Marriott Library, Utah. 20 Sept. 2002. 25 June 2007 <http://www.lib.utah.edu/gould/2002/lecture.html>. "FAO: Fact File." Some Effects of Global Warming on Agriculture. 1997. United Nations. 25 June 2007 <http://www.fao.org/NEWS/FACTFILE/FF9721-E.HTM>. Works Cited Hillel, Daniel, and Rosenzweig Cynthia. United States. US Global Change Research Office. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Food Supply. 1995. 25 June 2007 <Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Food Supply>. Lang, Anton. "Physiology of Flowering." Annual Review of Plant Physiology 3 (1952): 265-306. Abstract. Annual Reviews: 03-06. McKinney, Michael, Robert M. Schoch, and Logan Yonavjak. Environmental Science, Systems and Solutions. 4th ed. Jones & Bartlett, 2007. 1-642. Mock, Gregory. "How Much Do We Consume?" World Resources (2002). 25 June 2007 <http://earthtrends.wri.org/features/view_feature.php?fid =7&theme=6>. Works Cited Park, Julian, John Finn, and Richard Cooke. Challenges in Farm Management. University of Reading. Reading, England: School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, 2005. 25 June 2007 <http://www.ecifm.rdg.ac.uk/>. Peyser, Quinn, and Steven Anderson, eds. Exploring Africa! Michigan State University. Michigan State University. 25 June 2007 <http://exploringafrica.matrix.msu.edu/>. Sombroek, Wim, and Bazzaz Fakhri, eds. Global Climate Change and Agricultural Production. Direct and Indirect Effects of Changing Hydrological, Pedological and Plant Physiological Processes. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Rome: John Wiley & Sons, 1996. 25 June 2007 <http://www.fao.org/docrep/W5183E/W5183E00.htm>. "Terra: Brazil's Landless Movements." NY Times 1983. 25 June 2007 <http://www.nytimes.com/specials/salgado/home/about.html>. Works Cited United Nations. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Global Warming: Early Warning Signs. <http://www.climatehotmap.org/index.html>. United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. U.S. Department of Commerce. NOAA El Nino Page. 25 June 2007. 25 June 2007 <http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/>. United States. U.S. Office of Technology Assessment. Changing by Degrees: Steps to Reduce Greenhouse Gases. 1991. 25 June 2007 <http://www.ciesin.columbia.edu/docs/004-132/004132.html>. Wheeler, Catherine. "Estimating the Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture." The International Development Research Centre Reports (1998). 25 June 2007 <http://www.idrc.ca/en/ev-5544-201-1-DO_TOPIC.html>.