Download “The only plausible explanation for the rise in weather

As for the future, We must be the change that we want to see in the world.
Mahatma Gandhi
your task is not to foresee it, One’s destination is never a place,
but to enable it.
but a new way of seeing things.
Antoine de Saint-Exupery, 1948
Henry Miller
Global warming represents a cooling of the human heart.
Anonymous Benedictine monk
To be truly radical is to make hope possible,
rather than despair convincing. The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.
Franklin D. Roosevelt
Raymond Williams
The climate
crisis is not a political issue.
I have not yet begun
to fight!
John Paul Jones
We must accept finite disappointment,
but never lose infinite hope.
Martin Luther King, Jr.
It is a moral and spiritual challenge
to all of humanity.
Al Gore
Modern agriculture is the use of land
to convert petroleum into food.
If you don’t change direction, you are likely Albert Bartlett, 1978
to end up where you are headed.
Chinese proverb The only limit to our realization of tomorrow will be our doubts of today.
Franklin D. Roosevelt
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion,
but not their own facts.
Don't give
Daniel Moynihan
up the ship!
Captain James Lawrence,1813
Waves of Change
2013 Texas APA Conference, Galveston
Planning for Sustainable Communities: Sailing on the Changing Tide
Planning for 2100
Climate Change and Coastal Communities
Lane Kendig and Aaron Tuley, AICP
Kendig Keast Collaborative
TRENDS THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
DEMOGRAPHIC DISRUPTIONS
- Rising Temperatures
- Drought / Desertification
- Freshwater Availability
- Sea Level Rise
- Mismanagement of Natural Resources
- Scarcity of Food Supplies
- Fluctuations in Energy Supply and Cost
- Economic Instability, leading to collapse
Planning in an Era of Climate and Energy Uncertainty
TRANSFORMATION
Facing Climate
Reality
Waves of Change
2013 Texas APA Conference, Galveston
Planning for Sustainable Communities: Sailing on the Changing Tide
Planning for 2100
Climate Change and Coastal Communities
Lane Kendig and Aaron Tuley, AICP
Kendig Keast Collaborative
Human-induced climate change is projected to
continue and accelerate significantly if emissions
of heat-trapping gases continue to increase. Heattrapping gases already in the atmosphere have
committed us to a hotter future with more
climate-related impacts over the next few decades.
Many [climate-related changes] will be
disruptive to society because our institutions and
infrastructure have been designed for the
relatively stable climate of the past, not the
changing one of the present and future.
2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment (draft)
U.S. Global Change Research Program
Climate Change Risks and Major Impacts for Cities –
- temperature increases
- sea level rise
- precipitation changes
- extreme weather events
Of these, sea level rise poses an especially significant risk,
since low-elevation coastal zones (LECZ) (areas less
that 10 meters above sea level) –
- take-up two percent of the world’s area,
- contain 10 percent of the world’s population, and
- 13 percent of the world’s urban population.
Image:
Peter Essick/National Geographic Society
Scientists are forewarning –
450
ppm
- will trigger potentially irreversible glacial melt and sea level rise…
“out of humanity’s control.”
395
ppm
At the current growth rate of 1.5%, atmospheric concentrations
of CO2 are increasing at a rate at approx. 2
ppm annually.
450 ppm in 2040
RUNAWAY CLIMATE
CARBON DIOXIDE
TEMPERATURE
The Ten Hottest Years on Record
2010
2005
2009
2007
1998
2002
2003
2006
2012
2011
Source: NASA/GISS
The Hottest Year Ever Measured
(Statistically tied with 2005)
Source: NASA/GISS
As
2000
COYears
of CO2So
andDoes
Global
theTemperature
Temperature
2 Increases,
Data: (Temperature) Thompson, et al., “Abrupt Tropical Climate Change: Past and Present,” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, vol. 103, no. 28;
(CO2) Australian Academy of Science; Etheridge, et al., “Law Dome CO2, CH4 and N2O ice core records extended to 2000 years BP,” Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, doi:10.1029/2006GL152,
2006. © 2006 American Geophysical Union. Reproduced/modified by permission of American Geophysical Union.
300
280
CO2 (ppmv)
260
240
220
200
180
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
Age (years BP)
Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA
200,000
100,000
0
300
280
CO2 (ppmv)
260
240
220
200
180
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
Age (years BP)
Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA
200,000
100,000
0
400
2013 CO2 Concentration: 395
380
360
340
320
300
280
CO2 (ppmv)
260
240
220
200
180
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
Age (years BP)
Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA
200,000
100,000
0
Human vs. Natural Impacts on Climate
Models using only natural forces
Temperature (ºF)
58
Models using both natural and human forces
Observations of actual temperatures
57
56
Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, 2009;
Hegerl, G. C. et al., 2007, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, pp. 663–745
Predicted and Observed Upper-Level
Ocean Temperatures, 1940–2004
Predicted
Natural Variability
Expected Variation
Due to Human Causes
Actual Observed
Temperatures
*
1940
1950
2005, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2004
Hurricane Intensity Grows as
Oceans Heat Up
Water Temperature
Wind Velocity (shear) due to increased water temp. disparity
Storm moisture content
Source: NOAA
“…major storms spinning in both the
Atlantic and the Pacific since the 1970s have increased
in duration and intensity by about 50 percent.”
MIT Study
July 31, 2005
In other words,
the BIG STORMS are
becoming both
more frequent
AND bigger
Hurricane Katrina
August 29, 2205
2005
Hurricane Katrina, Impact –
According to FEMA, “single-most catastrophic natural disaster in U.S.
history.”
Total fatalities: 1,833
Over one million people were displaced
• Relief shelters housed 273,000 people
• 114,000 housed in FEMA trailers
Total estimated damage:
$108
billion
Private insurance payments:
$41 billion on 1.7 million claims
National Flood Insurance Program: $16.1 billion in claims
Total federal dollars spent in the Gulf Region post-Katrina:
$120.5 billion
Sources: Insurance Information Institute, 2010 / Greater new Orleans Community Data Center, 2010
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly
29 October 2012
Temperatures Compared to
1981 – 2010 Average
-5°
0°
+5°C
-9°
0°
+9°F
Source: NOAA
Hurricane Sandy
29 October 2012
Hurricane Sandy, Impact –
- Total Fatalities: 159
- 659,000 homes were damaged or destroyed;
- Second most expensive hurricane in U.S. history –
$85 Billion
• $60.2 billion in federal dollars
• $25 billion covered by the insurance industry.
© 2012 NASA Photo via Getty Images
The insurance industry estimates that 2012 was the
second-costliest year in U.S. history for climate-related
disasters, with more than $139 billion in damages. But
private insurers only covered about 25% of these costs,
leaving the federal government and its public insurance
enterprises to pay for the majority of the remaining claims.
Source:
Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC)
WHO PAID THE COST OF CLIMATE-RELATED DISASTERS IN 2012?
$10 BILLION Uninsured Losses
Photo: New Jersey Governor’s Office / Tim Larsen.
Global Ocean Heat Content
1955 – 2010
15
Heat Content (1022 Joules)
10
5
0
-5
5 year average, 0 - 2000 m depth
-10
1960
1970
1980
1990
Data: NOAA/NESDIS/NODC Ocean Climate Laboratory, Updated from Levitus, et al., “World ocean heat content and
thermostatic sea level change (0-200), 1955-2010,” Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, doi:10.1029/2012GL051106, 2012.
© 2012 American Geophysical Union. Reproduced/modified by permission of American Geophysical Union.
2000
2010
2100 Projected Sea Level Rise –
(Due to ice loss from sheets and glaciers, + thermal expansion)
- IPCC 2007 4th Assessment Report: 40 cm;
- IPCC 2013 Draft Report (leaked): 29-82 cm;
- Ice2Sea Project: 85 cm – over 1 meter;
- British Antarctic Survey: 69 cm (1:20 risk that sea level rise
could be as much as 85 cm);
- U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) – “ thoughtful
precaution suggests that a global sea level rise of 1 meter to the
year 2100 should be considered for future planning and policy
decisions” (2009);
- NOAA – adopted 6.6 feet (2 meters) as its highest of four
scenarios for 2100;
- USACE – recommends that planners consider a high scenario
of 5 feet;
- Vermeer and Rahmsdorf (2009): 1.2 meters (4 feet) by 2100,
based on three emissions scenarios.
Assumption: 1 – 2 meters by 2100
Sea Level Rise -
Global sea level has risen about 8 inches since 1880,
and the rate of rise is accelerating.
-
Across the country, nearly 5 million people live in 2.6
million homes at less than 4 feet above high tide.
Because 53 percent of all Americans live
in and around coastal cities and towns,
it is important to understand the point at
which sea level rise creates an untenable
situation in the U.S.
Beginning with just one meter of sea
level rise, our nation would be
physically under siege, with calamitous
and destabilizing consequences.
Ed Mazria, The 2030 Research Center (2007)
Population Displaced by
Sea Level Rise
Population (millions)
400
300
200
100
1
2
3
Sea Level Rise (meters)
Source: Rowley et al. EOS 88(9), 2007
4
5
6
Energy Infrastructure Exposed –
287 facilities located less than 4 feet above the high-tide line,
Median odds for floods reaching at least 4 feet above local
high-tide lines - 55 percent by 2030.
Median odds for floods exceeding 5 feet - 41 percent by 2050.
Odds vary regionally, but generally –
rank highest along the Gulf of Mexico.
St. Petersburg Flood Protection Barrier The battier separates Neva Bay from the Gulf of Finland and
protects St. Petersburg (5 million population) from storm surge.
1. Completed in 2011 at a cost of $6 billion;
2. Designed for 1,000 year storm surge of 4.55 meters;
3. Length: 16 miles long;
4. Part of six-lane St. Petersburg motorway;
5. six sets of sluice gates, each with 10 or 12 radial gates a
total of 64 gates, 24m-wide;
The scheme is checked against failure for a 1:10,000 year
flood of 5.15 meters.
The Netherlands Delta Works The barrier was built in response to the 1953 North Sea
Flood.
1. Completed in 1997 at a cost of $7 billion;
2. Designed for 1,000 year storm;
3. Length: 1,864 linear miles of outer sea-dykes, and
6,214 linear miles of levees, canals, river dykes and
barriers;
4. Reclaimed 895 square miles of land;
5. All financial resources have been committed up to 2020.
The level of the Delta Fund for 2021 to 2028 is –
€ 9.7 billion.
With the Delta Works, the chances of another flood have
been reduced to once every 4000 years.
Thames Barrier - Protects 125 sq. km of central London (£200 billion worth of
property) from flooding caused by tidal surges;
- protects 1.25 million people;
- 520 meter span;
- 5 story height;
- Designed to withstand 1,000 year flood;
- Cost: £535 million (valued at £1.4 billion at 2007 prices);
- Floods could overwhelm the Thames barrier by end of century.
Source: The Guardian, May 14, 2013
Annual Closures of the Thames Barrier
1983 – 2010
(tidal flooding only)
11 9-
753-
Source: UK Environmental Agency: http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/research/library/publications/41065.aspx
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1-
TE2100 Plan (2012)
Risk Management = Flexible Adaptation Pathways
Building flexibility in to adaptation to manage the longterm and uncertain nature of climate change impacts.
The approach uses risk-based decision frameworks
involving thresholds and trigger points for making
systematic adjustments in response to new information
and changing circumstances.
“The only plausible explanation for the
rise in weather-related catastrophes is
climate change.”
Munich Re
One of the two largest reinsurance companies in the world
27 September 2010
AON Benfield, a reinsurance company, estimates that extreme
weather caused at least –
• $32 billion in economic damages in the United States during
the first half of 2013; and
• $85 billion in economic losses from global natural disasters,
- higher than the $75 billion for the same period in 2012,
- “15 percent lower than the 10-year (2003-2012) average of
$100 billion.
Source:
Image:
Insurance Journal, July 25, 2013, http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2013/07/25/299600.htm
Severe drought plagues northeast Brazil, Aljazeera, July 22 2013
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
GAO / FEMA Report:
The Impact of Climate Change and Population Growth
On the National Flood Insurance Program
Through 2100 (June 2013)
Growth in the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) 40% to 45% increase in total area through 2100.
The median (50th percentile) relative change of the SFHA in 2100, based on current conditions.
Worst-case Land Use Scenarios –
- where land must be abandoned due to sea level rise;
- where future development should not be permitted or
should be severely limited;
- where existing development should be relocated due to
frequent and extreme impacts related to climate change.
Issues –
- property rights and of public compensation;
- plans and policies for the relocation of populations;
- financing mechanisms for such relocations . . .
© 2004 Mark Lynas
CURRENT SITUATION
 No national policy to deal with 2 meter rise.
 No state with policy for 2 meter rise
 Some states, communities, and academics are
thinking about sea level rise.
 Review of APA conference presentations
indicate current efforts inadequate.
TRIAGE
 Priority setting under crisis conditions.
 A proven tool used for 150+ years.
 Designed to sort wounded soldiers into three
treatment priorities:
 Those whose wounds are so severe survival is
unlikely.
 Those who must be treated to have a chance
of survival.
 Those whose treatment can be delayed with
little risk.
SEA LEVEL TRIAGE
 Sort communities and regions into three
categories:
 Communities to be abandoned.
 Some areas preserved some abandoned.
 Communities whose importance warrants
massive investment.
TRIAGE SYSTEM
CHALLENGES
 Highly political.
 Large cities fighting for priority.
 Do Florida and Texas, with more
representatives, get better protection than
Maryland or Rhode Island?
 Should mid-west, plains states, mountain states
pay for sea level rise protection?
SETTING PRIORITIES
Need to protect  Economic importance.
 Size of population at risk.
 Cultural or historic value.
Ability to protect  Cost of protection.
 Difficulty of protection.
 Ease of relocation.
 Available funds.
FEDERAL
 Washington DC. Moving the national capital
unlikely to happen.
 Military bases are very difficult to relocate.
 Ports.
 Oil refineries.
 Major economic centers.
 Parks and other federal land.
 Money available to assist states.
STATES







Major state facilities.
Major cities.
Ports, oil refineries, and airports.
Parks.
Shoreline protectable.
Specific cities or places.
Additional funding.
LOCAL






Town center.
Historic areas.
Business areas.
What is protectable?
Spend on relocation or protection?
What will residents pay?
PROTECTION FACTORS
 Topography – distance to safe elevations.
 Coast line.




Barrier islands.
Length of coast.
Bays.
Rivers.
 Soils
 Limestone sand.
 Hard Rock.
 Shale or unstable material.
EXAMPLE OF TRIAGE
Large populations
Very large areas with
little topography and
long coasts.
Large bays that are
difficult to preserve
and would lose critical
habitat value.
Source:
Weiss and Overpeck
University of Arizona
TRIAGE - SAVE
Baltimore
Too big to move.
Port.
Limited dyke.
Washington DC.
Too important.
Topography.
Near current tidal limit.
Source:
Weiss and Overpeck
University of Arizona
TRIAGE CHALLENGE
Naval Academy and
Annapolis.
Major facility.
Historic center.
Topography.
Limited objective.
Norfolk
Major Naval Base.
Very poor topography.
Relocate?
Limited protection area?
Source:
Weiss and Overpeck
University of Arizona
State Capital
Naval Academy
City Historic
area and Dock
ANNAPOLIS, MD
TRIAGE - ABANDON
Barrier Islands.
Islands
Very large areas with
little topography and
long coasts.
Can major naval base
be relocated????
Source:
Weiss and Overpeck
University of Arizona
TRIAGE – NO PROTECTION
 Barrier islands.
 Too dynamic to protect.
 Long low coastal stretches.
 Rivers make coast line longer.
 Low population per square mile.
 Cost prohibitive.
 Low areas.
 Low population and employment density.
 Population that can be relocated.
BARRIER ISLAND
 Barrier islands are inherently unstable.
 They naturally migrate with sea level
change.
 Erosion protection Short lived.
 Transfers problem.
 Too costly.
 Damage levels very high.
BARRIER
ISLANDS
Surf City, North
Carolina
Source
Architecture 2030
2008
2100 with
2 meter
rise
FLORIDA
Coast too long.
Lined with barrier
islands.
Limestone old coral
pervious so dykes do
not work.
Saltwater Intrusion in Florida –
“With 50 centimeters (about 20 inches) of sea-level
rise, 80 percent of the salinity control structures in
Florida will no longer be functional.”
-
Hal Wanless, Chair, Geological Sciences, University of Miami
When sea level rises two feet, Florida’s aquifers may
be poisoned beyond recovery.
Source: “Rising Seas,” National Geographic, September 2013.
LOUISIANA
Too flat, too
large to protect.
Easier protect Baton
Rouge?
Is protecting New Orleans
feasible?
Port relocation further up
Mississippi?
TEXAS –
1 meter sea level rise
TEXAS – Galveston
1 meter sea level rise
TEXAS – Galveston
2 meter sea level rise
TEXAS – Port Arthur
1 meter sea level rise
TEXAS – Port Arthur
2 meter sea level rise
BAYS
 Highly problematic.
 Size very important.
 River inflow volume.
 Nurseries of marine species.
 Must prevent storm surge.
 Must let river flow out.
 Need to maintain salt content.
Chesapeake
Delaware
Source:
Weiss and Overpeck
University of Arizona
NEW YORK, HUDSON RIVER
New York City with 2 meter sea level rise. Architecture 2030.
SAN FRANCISCO
SEATTLE
DILEMMA




Waterfront property is very valuable.
Strong regulation poses a taking.
The value of property is subsidized with
government now paying nearly 80% of damages.
Current situation a major disincentive to regulate.
LARGE CITIES
Boston, New York, Philadelphia, DC. Miami, New Orleans,
Houston, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Portland,
Seattle .
 How to chose?
 Topography? – Area underwater.
 Bays and Rivers. Complex protection systems to
protect development and allow rivers to work.
 Can we afford all?
POSSIBLE BIG CITY TRIAGE
• Abandon: New Orleans, Miami.
– Too low to protect.
• Mixed – Abandon significant low areas and protect
others: Boston, Philadelphia, San Diego, Los Angeles,
San Francisco.
– Initial assessment that total barrier not feasible.
• Largely Protect with minor abandonment: New York,
Washington D.C., Portland.
– Total barrier, with only some smaller areas allowed to
flood.
FUNDING PLAN
 MANDITORY DISASTER INSURANCE.
 All disaster and insurance – lot & building.
 Cost of protection and relocation.
 Costs allocated to all
 Sea level, flooding, tornados, fire, etc.
 Provides economic incentive to act rationally.
 Cost distributed over long term.
 National funding pool.
 States must participate to receive aide and funding.
FEDERAL ASSISTANCE
 Protection.
 Dykes, locks, pumps, bridges, etc.
 Relocation and New Communities.
 Acquire land.
 Build infrastructure.
 Move population
 Removal and clean up.
 Sewer and other utility lines.
 Roads.
 Buildings.
COSTS
 Holland spends 1% of GNP on protection.
 Long recognition of problem.
 Protection funded for hundreds of years.
 United States.
 Sizable fraction of politicians in denial.
 Not noted for long term planning.
 Still rebuilding without protection.
 No national protection planning.
 Much higher initial funding.
FUNDING PROBLEM




No federal or state plan.
No current federal or state funding in place.
Cost of protection and relocations are very high.
Political.
WHY INSURANCE?
• Privatize to shift cost to those who live in high risk areas
from all tax payers.
• Economic price on locational decisions.
• Ability to spread protection and relocation costs over
decades.
• Funds eventual relocation.
• Lower government costs because insurance reimburses.
National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
“The NFIP is a coordinated, three-pronged approach developed to:
1) identify those areas within local communities that are most at
risk of flooding;
2) reduce the impact of flooding through a combination of
mitigation and floodplain management, and
3) make flood insurance available to help individuals and small
businesses recover following a flood.
Source: Hayes and Neal, 2010). FEMA, 2013
Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act (2012) –
Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act (2012) –
2 meter rise in sea level makes all three total losses.
The house loss insurance for all three would be $25,000/yr.
The rate would have to be raised to provide for relocation and demolition costs.
Florida CS/SB 1770: Property Insurance, Enacted
The Florida Legislature has approved reforms to the
state-run Citizens Property Insurance Corp.,
1. End subsidies to development that damages
Florida’s coastal environment, threatens wildlife
habitat and destroys natural storm barriers.
2. Bill will bar Citizens, starting in 2014, from
insuring structures valued at more than $1 million.
3. Cap would be lowered gradually until it reaches
$700,000 in 2017.
FEDERAL STRATEGY
 Set program elements.
 Base priorities.
 Implementation programs.
 Zoning.
 Building codes.
 New Communities.
 Incentive for states and locals.
 Disaster relief only to complying states.
 National disaster insurance.
LAND USE CONTROLS
 Prohibit building in high risk areas.
 This is ideal solution.
 High litigation risk.
 Insurance program makes it easier.
 Zone to reduce possible loses.
 Some ability to continue in threatened
area for a time.
PROHIBIT
 Prohibit building in sea level + two meter
rise + storm surge.
 Possible modifications to ease severity.





Ease restrictions at higher elevations.
Large dune buffers.
Large setback from shoreline.
Alternate development patterns.
Relocation controls.
REDUCE LOSS POTENTIAL
 Rezone to eliminate single family.
 This use suffers high damage and uses lots of
land per unit.
 Zone by size for single family.
 Reduces density and increases cost to build.
 Different standards for second homes.
 Increase structural requirements.
ZONING BY SIZE
 Replace dwelling unit with square feet of
building.
Six lots six homes various
sizes.
Smallest takes one lot, largest
three lots. Three home rather
than six.
Reduced loss potential.
EXAMPLE
 Floor area per lot – 500 sf.
 500 sf. Small two bedroom cottage – 1 lot.
 850 sf. Nice two bedroom cottage - 1.7 lots.
 1,100 sf. 1950’s three bedroom – 2.2 lots.
 1,600 sf. Three bedroom house – 3.2 lots.
 3,200 sf. Five bedroom big house – 6.4 lots.
 10,000 sf. McMansion – 20 lots.
 Economic incentive to reduce loss.
SHORELINE COTTAGES
 Development along shorelines was
predominantly second homes.
 Cottages replaced by McMansions.
 Permanent housing displaces cottages.
 Loss to storms has escalated to
unacceptable levels.
SECOND HOMES
 Large numbers of second homes in coastal hazard areas.
 Now too big and costly.
 Occupancy less than 10% occupied per year.
$1,150,000
Land value about $80,000 for both.
$190,000
SECOND HOMES
Well used second home. Single wide
manufactured home + camper. Often six to
eight cars on weekend.
TOO BIG 2nd HOMES
$1,500,000 Second Home.
Next door $200,000 Second Home.
Land value two lots $160,000.
Land value $80,000.
WORKING WATERFRONT
Elevate above highest flows and build to withstand winds.
Ground level for sumergable use.
STRUCTURES AT SEA
SLIDE OF OIL PLATFORM
FLOATING BUILDINGS
Floating Pavillion, Rotterdam, NL, 2011 | Photo: William Veerbeek
HIGH DENSITY STORM
RESISTANT
VERY HIGH DENSITY WITH
FLOODABLE RECREATION LAND
Roof deck pools restaurants.
Ground level recreation above sea
level rise.
NON-CONFORMING
EXISTING
 Force relocation rather than rebuilding for
the following.
 Buildings damaged be more than 30%.
 Buildings structurally damaged and
uninhabitable.
 Buildings with cumulative damage of 50% in
successive events.
 Prohibit refilling eroded lots.
CONSTRUCTION
 Elevated buildings designed to have
habitable space removable.
 Improved design.
 Relocation less expensive.
 Floating multi tenant buildings.
 Designed to rise when water comes in.
 Need design specification limiting this to
areas with a rise in water not heavy surf.
 Can be relocated.
MEGACITIES
Many mega city areas are theatened an a sizable population
wiil have to be relocated.
RELOCATION CHOICES
• Relocate on high ground in metro area – well on
fringes.
• Relocate on high ground in metro area – in very
dense buildings.
• Relocate randomly out side current metro areas.
• Relocate to preplanned communities.
• where water supplies are adequate for
increased population
• along high speed rail lines..
PLANNING FOR NEW
COMMUNITIES
 Transportation.
 High speed rail.
 Heavy rail.
 Light rail.
 Economic development strategy.
 Carbon strategy.
 Land Use
Growth Areas
Urban Areas
Urban Cores
High Speed Rail
Heavy Rail
TIMING
 Transit needs to precede growth.
 Phased development must limit initial
development at rail stops so as not to foreclose
long-term uses.
 We cannot as we do now start and grow
outward.
 Grow in stages from multiple nodes.
 Keep out speculators.
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Questions
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