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An Interdisciplinary Investigation of Climate
Change and its Effects in Walla Walla
Brett Addis
Andrew Aviza
Onon Bayasgalan
Forrest Carver
Courtney Fitzpatrick
Gia Matzinger
Jesse Phillips
Karlis Rokpelnis
Whitman College
Environmental Studies Senior Seminar Fall 2008
Table of Contents
Executive Summary………………………………………………………
3
Global Climate Change: An Overview………………………….
Forrest Carver
4-6
Water Availability and Hazards…………………………………….
Gia Matzinger
7-13
Air Quality and Water Quality:
The Health Effects of Climate Change………………………….
Andrew Aviza & Courtney Fitzpatrick
14-24
Climate Change and Biodiversity………………………………….
Brett Addis
25-31
Economic Impacts………………………………………………………….
Onon Bayasgalo & Karlis Rokpelnis
32-37
The Role of Local Government
in Addressing Climate Change……………………………………….
Jesse Phillips
2
8-39
Executive Summary
Our research finds that Walla Walla is not immune to the effects of global climate change.
With mean annual temperature increases estimated at 2.2 ºF by 2020 and 3.5 by
2040 ºF for Eastern Washington, water and air quality, biodiversity, energy, economic
activity, and overall well-being will be impacted in the following ways:
water
- precipitation trends will be variable and will a) jeopardize clean water supply and
associated human health, b) reduce reliability of water-dependent resources, and c)
increase the frequency of natural hazards
air quality
- climate change will exacerbate air pollution, which negatively impacts the health and wellbeing of the citizens of Walla Walla
biodiversity
- climate change will result in loss of already endangered or threatened species, invasion of
non-native species, increased number of forest pests, and more frequent and damaging
fires
energy
-climate change in combination with policies to address it will alter energy availability, which
will in turn, increase costs for producers and consumers
economic activity
- policies to address climate change will favor low-carbon emission industries and hamper
those with large carbon footprints
agriculture
- changes in precipitation patterns will decrease water availability during the growing
season, possibly forcing a shift towards more drought-tolerant crops and practices
This evidence, along with the nature of the global climate crisis, leads us to conclude that
addressing and preparing for global climate change is a moral imperative for the community
of Walla Walla and for the city as facilitating those efforts.
3
Global Climate Change: An Overview
Climate change has only recently been acknowledged as relevant to our economies, our
politics, and decisions we make in our daily lives. Unlike other problems, if left unchecked,
global climate change could bring the extinction of the human species. There are no “safe
zones” when it comes to widespread ecosystem change; every place is affected, hence the
term “global.” Climate change is a massive issue that calls the attention of almost every
discipline. Its basic causes and effects are ubiquitous, and will directly or indirectly produce
changes in all sectors of society, including our water supply, public health, physical
environment, global and local economy, agriculture, and community well-being.
So what exactly is global climate change? Some use the term interchangeably with global
warming, but they are fundamentally different. Global warming is a rise in average global
temperature, whereas climate change is a general shift in the average weather of the
planet. Furthermore, climate change involves a host of other effects, most notably changes
in precipitation, ocean acidity, and wind patterns. The three major weather effects
acknowledged by scientists include: 1) A gradual annual increase in average temperature;
2) A widening of the gap between high and low precipitation; 3) An increase in ocean pH.
The Greenhouse Effect
The most important and legitimized change is the annual temperature increase, driven by
the greenhouse effect, or the accumulation of greenhouse gases (methane, CO2, CFCs, etc.)
in the upper atmosphere. When solar radiation hits the earth, the minority of radiation that
is not absorbed is reflected back into the atmosphere. The concentration of greenhouse
gases re-reflects the radiation back to earth, ultimately causing more of the sun’s radiation
to be absorbed by the earth. The more greenhouse gas particles to reflect solar radiation,
the more that radiation hits the earth and increases average atmospheric temperature.
Accumulating greenhouse gases also break down our fragile ozone layer—the atmospheric
layer solely responsible for absorbing much of the incoming solar radiation. The greenhouse
effect is an efficient, two-pronged method of warming the earth at an increasing rate. In
addition, biological and geologic mechanisms exacerbate the green house effect and create
a positive feedback cycle. Such cycles exponentially intensify the effects of climate change
by self-propagation.
Causes of Climate Change
The climate of the earth has a large number of constituent factors, caused by both humans
and natural variation. In the past, the earth has experienced rapid changes on a large scale;
nonhuman phenomena have caused carbon dioxide levels to fluctuate between 5000 and
200 ppm over the past 600 million years. However, even volcanic eruptions, one of the
largest drivers of atmospheric CO2 fluctuation, emit only 0.7% of all human caused
emissions, and these over a much longer geologic time period. Scientists agree that the rate
and scale of warming is such that natural emissions can only be responsible for a fraction of
the observed warming since the onset of the industrial revolution. In the past century, CO2
and methane have increased by 31% and 149%. The increase in greenhouse gas
concentration since the 18th century is far too steep to account for nonhuman causes of
variation.
While natural occurrences are important to take into consideration, the bulk of climate
change has been caused by a wide variety of human practices. Of these practices, our
burning of fossil fuels creates the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions. The
combustion of fuel in our vehicles puts out vast amounts of Carbon Dioxide (CO2), and any
4
power plant that runs on a petroleum derivative has a similar byproduct. In addition to fossil
fuel combustion, a host of other human activities propagates climate change—our penchant
for mass livestock raising leads to high methane emissions from digestion; clear-cutting
removes the carbon sequestration ability of forests; creation of concrete puts out 5% of the
world’s CO2 emissions. The actions of each individual do not produce enough CO2 to
appreciably change the earth’s climate, but when the CO2-emitting practices of billions of
human beings are on the constant increase, our net emission is the greatest force
accelerating a change in the earth’s climate.
Effects of Climate Change
1) A gradual annual increase in average temperature
The effects of Climate change are generally perceived on a global level. With an increase in
temperatures, polar ice caps will continue to melt. This is predicted to cause a large rise in
sea level, jeopardizing major coastal cities as well as whole countries, such as Bangladesh
and Holland. Ecosystems will change at a rapid pace, and with them, habitat requirements.
In South and Central American cities previously too cold for malarial mosquitoes, mosquito
habitat will suddenly be available. Many species will be unable to cope with the changes and
will go extinct; others will experience a slow loss of genetic diversity as numbers of
individuals decrease, making them less resilient to change. The loss of life due to disease
could be extreme for both humans and nonhumans.
2) A widening of the gap between high and low precipitation
While the global effects serve as parameters to understand just how immense the
consequences of climate change can be, the local effects must not be overlooked. One of
the most important effects of climate change is the gradual destabilization of weather
patterns in general. Changing wind currents, precipitation, and temperature all contrive to
increase the frequency and intensity of severe weather events. Areas like Walla Walla can
expect to see more droughts and more overprecipitation, as well more frequent and
damaging windstorms. Tornadoes have recently been recorded in areas where none have
ever been recorded; and places like tornado alley and hurricane-prone coasts will
experience a much more heightened effect.
3) An increase in ocean pH.
The land, of course, is not the only affected area. Oceans will absorb higher concentrations
of atmospheric CO2, which lowers their pH significantly. A drop of dilute acid on a piece of
coral has devastating effects; dilute CO2 is predicted to have the same effect on most of the
reefs in the world’s oceans. This will cause irreversible damage to functioning ecosystems
and fisheries on which we depend for food.
The IPCC special report on scenarios has come out with a comprehensive projection of CO2
levels in the future, which range from 541 to 970 ppm by the year 2100. Our current levels
are only around 380 ppm, and the effects are plain and noticeable. Double or triple the
levels over the course of 100 years, and the state of the earth would be impossible to
fathom even for an expert in the field of climate change.
Sources:
Ahlenius, Hugo (June 2007). "Climate feedbacks". United Nations Environment
Programme/GRID-Arendal. Retrieved on 2008-01-21.
5
Charlson, R. J.; S. E. SCHWARTZ, J. M. HALES, R. D. CESS, J. A. COAKLEY JR., J. E.
HANSEN, and D. J. HOFMANN (1992-01-24). "Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols".
Science 255 (5043): 423–430.Royer DL, Berner RA, Park J (2007). "Climate sensitivity
constrained by CO2 concentrations over the past 420 million years". Nature 446 (7135):
530–2.
Steinfeld, H.; P. Gerber, T. Wassenaar, V. Castel, M. Rosales, C. de Haan (2006).
Livestock’s long shadow,
http://www.virtualcentre.org/en/library/key_pub/longshad/A0701E00.htm.
"World CO2 levels at record high, scientists warn", The Guardian (2008-05-12).
"Volcanic Gases and Their Effects". U.S. Department of the Interior (2006-01-10).
Nebojsa Nakicenovic et al. UNEP. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Special
Report for Emission Scenarios. GRID-Arenal, 2001.
6
Water Availability and Natural Hazards
This section attempts to answer the following guiding questions:
• What are the major factors determining water supply in Walla Walla?
• Is Walla Walla susceptible to changes in that supply?
• If so, how and why?
My research finds that decreased water availability and decreased water quality are the
most pressing issues for the Walla Walla community. Warming temperatures cause a
general shift in the form of precipitation to rainwater rather than snowfall. The danger is
that less water is stored in the snowpack and more flows as runoff and in groundwater. The
evidence leads this report to recommend that Walla Walla diversify its currently narrow
range of water sources.
Snow Pack
Though more water would appear beneficial, changing climate will cause it to become more
available during the winter (December through April) and less during the most crucial, dry
summer months (April/May through September). “Peak stream flows in Washington are
shifting earlier in the year in watersheds covering most of the state, including the Columbia
Basin” (2). The Columbia maintains its flows from the snowpack as opposed to rain, which is
the dominant form of precipitation on the Western side of the Cascades range as a result of
the rain-shadow effect. Therefore, as snowpack is affected, water flowing to the Columbia
River will be more variable and less predictable. Increasing temperatures due to climate
change will continuously increase the chance that the Columbia will fail to meet the timely
standards of our water-dependent services and needs.
Dry Climate
Walla Walla is particularly susceptible to changes in water abundance and quality. Parts of
the Columbia River Basin are considered to have a semi-arid desert climate, including Walla
Walla. Its annual precipitation is on average 10-12 in/year (5). Hence, Walla Walla must
take better advantage of any water that it does receive.
Narrow Range of Water Sources
This region is heavily invested in a small number of water sources. 90 percent of Walla
Walla’s municipal water supply comes from Mill Creek, which is vulnerable to changing
water chemistry and contamination from wildfires (5,6). The other 10 percent is supplied
from wells in the deep basalt aquifer, which undergoes extremely slow recharge.
Groundwater from this aquifer, until just recently, has been depleted more than it has been
allowed to replenish itself.
Agriculture
Furthermore, Walla Walla County’s economy is founded in agriculture. This region produces
a range of crops including wheat, wine grapes, spinach, onions, and alfalfa seed. Complex
water rights and irrigation systems continue to plague this region, as water is fairly scarce
even before irrigation, diversion, and well pumping. In connection with the growing
agricultural industry, Walla Walla is expanding to wine-lovers and potential farmers.
7
Expansion is placing more pressure on water sources and those who use them than ever
before, and estimates of daily water usage or allocations will become prohibitively
conservative in the near future.
Threat of Fire to Mill Creek Watershed
Wildfires are of particular concern
the nearby Blue Mountains are a
occurrence of forest fires in the
increased fire threat to the Blue
in the forested areas of the Pacific North West of which
part. Climate change has already resulted in increased
Pacific Northwest (figure 1). With this fact in mind,
Mountain forests must be considered as it relates to
Watersheds that provide ecosystem services to Walla Walla.
Figure 1: Increase in fire frequency in the Western United States, including interior regions
of the Columbia River Basin. From Connelly et al.
2004 http://sagemap.wr.usgs.gov/FTP/images/fig7.6.jpg.
Watershed Contamination
While forest fires are nothing new, and would appear unrelated to water, the Mill Creek
Watershed is particularly fragile in the face of fire impacts. Wildfires can send burnt debris
and eroded bank material into water bodies, dirtying a water supply for an extended period
of time. The Mill Creek Watershed is a fairly susceptible case because there has been no
major fire in its forest for 100 years. Underbrush that accumulated in the absence of fire is
considered to be “fuel load,” making ignition more likely. Any fire that does strike this area
could be more severe than in areas that are occasionally cleared out by fire. In addition to
these concerns, Walla Walla would be unable to treat turbid water dispatched from a fireimpacted watershed. The Mill Creek Water Treatment Plant uses ozone treatment that
reduces Mill Creek’s bacterial components and clears out pathogens. Particulate matter is
not extracted with this treatment, however, and fire debris and erosion material are not
extracted (Krebs, Tom pers. comm., Nov 2008).
Recovery Time
8
A significant fire event would likely impact full surface water supply. Recovery times for
such an event are estimated to be (from varying sources) 6 months to 6 years. This would
likely depend upon the severity of the fire and on a plan for temporary water sources. Tom
Krebs of the Mill Creek Water Treatment states that 6 months would mark the regrowth of
new vegetation by the next growing season, improving turbidity in Mill Creek. He is also
confident that we could use supplemental water stored in the aquifer for this amount of
time, either by itself or mixed with some of the Mill Creek water. The city projects that
recovery time could be up to 6 years (Walla Walla Watershed Planning website, 2006).
Although this estimation was made before the effects of the City’s Aquifer Storage and
Recovery Program were fully examined, a severe fire could in fact take years to regrow
sufficient vegetation to prevent debris runoff.
Water Variability
With more rain and less snow, the area snow pack is becoming threatened. With rising
temperatures, snow melts earlier in the spring. Consequently, peak stream flows are also
earlier than usual, resulting in a loss of stored springtime snowpack. We can therefore
expect to receive increased flows in the winter and significantly reduced flows in the
summer months (when we need it most), as well as an extension of those dry months (the
dry season). Significant reductions have already occurred. The Cascade Range has already
lost 30% of its ice mass compared to the periods of 1945 to1955 and 1990 to 2000 (Mote,
P.W., E.P. Salathé, V. Dulière, and E. Jump. 2008). The Columbia River, the major
generator of Washington’s hydropower, is a snow-charged river that has 11 run-of-the river
dams, many of them in this area. Run-of-the-river dams, including the Chief Joseph, Grand
Coulee and the four lower Snake River dams do not contain large reservoirs; water levels
behind the dam can only rise a few feet before overtopping (Carson, Bob pers. comm. Nov
2008). These dams are therefore highly dependent on the steady flow of the river, supplied
by the snowmelt and natural runoff. Not all of the increasing winter flows will be stored as
potential energy. In fact, the reduced snowpack will affect the consistency of flows so that
power generation is actually less reliable. Reliability of other water-dependent services, such
as irrigation, minimum fish flows, clean water, and recreation will also be jeopardized
(figure 2).
9
Figure 2. Reliability of Columbia Basin resources in the 2040s. Black bars indicate the
present day reliability and blue bars indicate reliability resulting from 4 different climate
change scenarios. Reliability is based on the percentage of months that each service will
reach its particular objective out of the total months that service will be provided (Hamlet et
al., 2001).
Threat of Flood
In 1996, a major flooding event ravaged Walla Walla. The Walla Walla and Touchet Rivers
and Mill Creek all overflowed their banks. The rain-on-snow event caused thousands of
landslides in the foothills of the Blue Mountains and could have resulted in overtopping of
the dam at Bennington Lake. Climate change is predicted to make weather events more
frequent and less predictable, so similar rain-on-snow events will become more likely.
Reasons why flood hazard will increase:
Storm flows are expected to increase.
The ground is becoming less permeable as Walla Walla undergoes development (water
does not percolate well through concrete). Recently implemented “retention basins”
offer a promise of offsetting this effect.
• The concrete channel containing Mill Creek reduces flooding in Walla Walla, but the
increased velocity adds to the flood hazard downstream.
• Increased flow velocity and the impermeable bed and banks of the channel reduce
percolation to recharge the groundwater.
Restoring the streams to a more natural condition as well as incorporating retention basins
•
•
10
into city planning can significantly reduce the flood threat.
Soil Moisture and Drought
Walla Walla’s main crops—wheat and wine—rely on well-drained soils and arid climates. This
fact is a blessing and a curse considering that “well-drained” indicates that the soil cannot
retain moisture effectively in some locations. In addition to wine and wheat, Walla Walla
also raises some water-intensive crops such as alfalfa seed. These crops will suffer as soil
moisture continues to decrease with increasing air temperatures and evapotranspiration. A
decrease in soil moisture, in combination with longer dry seasons, will put pressure on
already stressed water needed to water crops in the valley.
“Rivers and streams in the [Walla Walla] basin experience greatly reduced flows in the
summer from a combination of reduced supply and diversion for irrigation. For example, the
Walla Walla River has often gone dry at the Oregon-Washington border, and Mill Creek
usually has little to no flow between points of irrigation withdrawals and returns” ( Joy,
Pelletier, and Baldwin, 2007).
Therefore, already delicately balanced water rights may see further alteration and junior
water right holders may be unable to satisfy an increased need for this water.
Aquifer Storage and Recovery Program
Walla Walla is addressing many of these concerns by implementing an Aquifer Storage and
Recovery Program (ASR), which entails storing treated water from Mill Creek into the
aquifer through wells. Experiments with storage sights have shown that the deep basalt
aquifer successfully stores this water and can be tapped into when Mill Creek flows are low.
The following table addresses advantages and disadvantages of the ASR program:
Advantages
Disadvantages
•
Reliable, consistent water supply
•
•
Can return fish flows to stream in
summer months
Costly implementing new
diverting infrastructure.
•
Storage sights must exhibit very
specific
qualities
conducive
to
retaining the water
•
Rock-water
interactions
(basalt
interaction may make the water more
acidic)
•
Turbidity standard of water treated
from Mill Creek to be inserted into
the aquifer needs to improve
•
•
Provides a temporary water supply
when Mill Creek is in some way
contaminated (e.g. high turbidity
from forest fire in the watershed)
Enhances quality and quantity of
water in recharging and avoids
amplification of water contaminations
•
Could
implement
catchment
facilities
advantage of rainfall
precipitation
to
take
•
Less surface reservoirs
•
Increasing the level of the water
table lowers pumping costs
11
water-
The most important disadvantage is cost, especially when considering the need to improve
turbidity of flows diverted from Mill Creek and the further installation of wells and waterallocating infrastructure. Section 7 of the Columbia Water Bill (2006), which allocates more
water to dry areas of the Columbia River Basin, mentions providing $10 million for a variety
of storage development and enhancement projects including the ASR program to enhance
the Walla Walla and Yakima Rivers (WRIA 54 Planning Unit Meeting Summary, Mar. 2006).
Reports from the Walla Walla Watershed Planning website (last updated in 2006) state that
the ASR program has gained attention from the OR Department of Water Resources and
state and Federal agencies in their implementing the ASR program. Behind water
conservation efforts, the program offers the best solution for dealing with variable flows,
especially for enhancing flows in the summer months.
Key Facts:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Warming temperatures will cause precipitation to take to form of rain more often
than snow. Hence the snowpack will decrease. Earlier spring melts, earlier peak flows
and diminished summer flows will result.
Walla Walla is particularly susceptible to changes in precipitation because of its dry
climate, reliance on few water sources and heavy investment in agricultural
production (Mill Creek accounts for 90% of the municipal supply with the remainder
supplied by the aquifer).
As the threat of forest fires increase with rising temperatures and longer dry
seasons, Walla Walla’s watershed is in danger of enduring contamination from
erosion and burnt debris increasing the turbidity of Mill Creek. De-contamination of
Mill Creek flows is uncertain because Walla Walla’s water treatment system does not
extract particulate matter. This threat is made even more immediate when we
consider that the Mill Creek Watershed has not seen a major fire in 100 years and
holds a significant amount of fuel load.
Reduced snowpack will change timings of peak flows and make water-dependent
services less reliable in the Columbia River Basin.
Winter flows will increase because more precipitation will take the form of rain and
runoff rather than stored in the snowpack. Flood hazard is an increasing threat.
Soil moisture will decrease with increasing temperatures. Water sources will be
stressed as more irrigation is applied to crops. Walla Walla’s water allocation is
already stressed because Walla Walla Basin includes seasonally dried creeks. Water
rights are also delicately balanced and will probably need to undergo further
adjustment.
Walla Walla is currently addressing the problems of variable water availability and
quality with the Aquifer Storage and Recovery Program. A portion of the winter flows
is stored in the deep basalt aquifer and pumped out when needed. There are still
issues that must be addressed regarding this program, namely the cost of water
allocation and reducing water turbidity before storing it.
Sources:
Mote, P.W., E.P. Salathé, V. Dulière, and E. Jump. 2008. Scenarios of Future Climate
Change for the Pacific Northwest
Washington State Dept. of Ecology, Washington State Dept. of Community, Trade and
Economic Development, Feb 2008. Leading the Way on Climate Change: The Challenge of
Our Time.
12
Climate Leadership Initiative at the University of Oregon, Dec. 2006. Impacts of Climate
Change on Washington’s Economy.
"What Makes the Columbia River Basin Unique and How We Benefit." FWEE. Foundation for
Water and Energy Education. <http://www.fwee.org/c-basin.html>.
Mote, P. W. 2003b. Trends in snow water equivalent in the Pacific Northwest and their
climatic causes. Geophysical Research Letters 30(12) 1601, doi:10.1029/2003GL017258,
2003.
Joy, Pelletier, and Baldwin, 2007. Walla Walla River Basin pH and Dissolved Oxygen Total
Maximum Daily Load. Water Quality Report
Hulbert, James, Community Wildfire Protection Plan Steering Group. Feb, 2006. Mill Creek
Oregon and Washington Community Wildfire Protection Plan.
"Walla Walla Aquifer Storage and Recovery Program." 2006. Walla Walla Watershed
Planning. Oct. 2008 <http://www.wallawallawatershed.org/index.html>.
“Walla Walla County District Conservation Projects.” Walla Walla Watershed Planning
website.
https://netfiles.whitman.edu/home/matzingr/ww_climate/wwaquiferstoragerecovery.html?u
niq=-b8pwuc, 2006.
Hamlet et al. “Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources Northwest: Impacts and Policy
Implications.” JISOA Climate Impacts Group, University of Wahsington, 2001.
WRIA 54 Planning Unit Meeting Summary, 22 Mar. 2006, Airway Heights, WA. Final Meeting
Summary
WRIA
54Lower
Spokane
River
Watershed.
P.
6
http://www.spokanecounty.org/WQMP/project54/documents/Meeting%20Summary%20032
206.pdf.
Figures form http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/anim_us.html. from NOAA’s National
Integrated Drought Information System.
13
Climate Change & Public Health
When scientists, politicians and citizens discuss the effects of climate change, most focus on
the consequences relating the environment: melting icebergs and glaciers, loss of habitat,
rapid changes in seasons, extreme weather, as well as loss of tourism and agricultural
productivity. Although it is important to understand the environmental effects of climate
change, many people fail to realize that a changing climate also poses a significant threat to
public health. Climate change is not just affecting the polar bears and the icebergs, but
communities across the United States, including the community right here in Walla Walla,
Washington.
Over the last few decades the debate over anthropocentric climate change has dominated
the scientific and mainstream communities across the United States and around the world.
But the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is made up of thousands
of scientists from around the world has reached an overwhelming consensus that climate
change is human-induced. Furthermore, this overwhelming majority of the world’s leading
scientists agree that climate change will affect important components of life. Although it is
impossible to predict exactly how climate change will affect Walla Walla, one thing is for
certain: highly unpredictable weather patterns. Over the last few years we’ve seen drier
summers, intense forest fires, and an increase in extreme weather events such as
windstorms. Although we do not know for certain how climate change is affecting weather
patterns, today’s science is continuing to draw connections and now it is up to us to take
the steps to ensure the health of the community is maintained.
Regardless of one’s beliefs concerning the severity of climate change, everyone can agree
that the health of a community is dependent on some of the most basic necessities to life:
sufficient availability to foodstuffs, clean water as well as access to safe/secure shelter.
Although many citizens across the United States are seemingly unaffected by the changing
climate, it is important to realize that every community is at risk—even the world’s most
advanced societies will be affected by climate change if we fail to take bold action today.
This section of the report will focus on how climate change is related to the human health of
the citizens living in Walla Walla, Washington, specifically with respect to air and water
quality.
Overview of Public Health Effects
•
•
•
Over the last few years, Walla Walla has experienced extreme windstorms, forest
fires, and drought. These conditions may be linked to climate change and are
undoubtedly affecting the health of the community.
Air pollution from burning fossil fuels, the burning of fields/forests/residential and
wind erosion are linked to lung disease and decreasing lung function, especially in
children and elderly.
Air pollution is a major public health concern because it affects large populations and
because people don’t have a choice about the air they breathe.
Air Quality: The Effects of Pollution
According to the world’s leading scientists, greenhouses gasses such as carbon dioxide
released through the burning of fossil fuels, are linked to climate change due to their ability
to trap heat generated from the sun in the atmosphere. Throughout the last few years, we
14
have seen monumental changes in weather patterns across the United States and around
the world. Although climate change does not have the same urgency in Walla Walla as it
does in other areas of the world, it is critical to recognize that Walla Walla is not immune to
the effects of climate change. Over the last few years, Walla Walla has experienced drought,
increases in forest fires, windstorms as well as other extreme weather conditions that are
potentially linked to global climate change. This section of the report highlights a variety of
local sources of air pollution such as wind blown dust from open lands and activity, burning
(residential, agricultural and wild fires), pollen as well as vehicle exhaust. Although there is
still uncertainty in how climate change will affect Walla Walla in the future, now is the time
that the city residents and officials must start preparing for action.
In order to live we need air to breathe. It is a simple human fact, yet as a society we
continue to burn fossil fuels and in
turn are polluting the very air we
breathe with toxins such as ozone
(smog), particulate matter, nitrogen
oxides as well as carbon monoxide.
The burning of fossil fuels not only
emits toxins, but also CO2, a
powerful greenhouse gas. Despite
the fact that newer cars are
equipped with devices that help to
clean
exhaust
fumes,
Washingtonians are not only driving
more, but also driving alone.
According to a study conducted by
the Washington Department of Ecology in 2004, car usage/travel has been linearly rising
i
since 1995 as shown in the figure above . The figure shows that in 2002, Washington drivers
drove more than 150 million miles per day in the state, and according to the Washington
State DOE report, contributed “more than 6,000 tons of pollutants to the air every single
day.”
The state’s largest source of both greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution comes from
the exhaust of motor vehicles. According to the Washington State Department of Ecology
2004 Environmental Health report, “Motor vehicle exhaust contributes to more than half of
the air pollution burden in the state and more than half of the fine particle pollution so
closely linked to much of the health damage from air pollution.” Despite improvements in
technology, this trend has been occurring since the 1980s as indicated in the figure below.
The problem has two components: fuel efficiency standards are lacking throughout the state
and vehicle usage is not declining fast enough. Furthermore, vehicles also suspend
particulate matter into the air, especially when driven on dirt roads, which decreases the air
quality especially in rural cities such as Walla Walla.
15
Although Walla Walla does not experience the same amount of traffic as more urban areas
of the state, air
pollution from motor
vehicles still poses
significant
health
and
environmental
problems especially
during
times
of
thermal inversions.
Due to Walla Walla’s
topography
and
ii
winter weather patterns, the city is prone to thermal inversions . Inversions occur
throughout the winter months when a layer of warm air comes over the city, preventing the
cooler air below from rising (See Diagram to Right). In normal conditions, winds help to
circulate the warm and cool air throughout the atmosphere and this convection works to
replace any polluted air with clean air. However, when the winds are calm, thermal
inversions are likely to occur. Because Walla Walla is situated in a valley and due to the
increased likelihood of warmer winter weather in response to climate change, there is
reason to believe that thermal inversions may occur with greater frequency. Thermal
inversions exacerbate and magnify the degree of air pollution—trapping pollution from
sources such as vehicle exhaust as well as particulate matter often from wood stoves closer
to the earth’s surface. Because the air cannot circulate, it becomes increasingly dirty and
poses serious health risks for the citizens of Walla Walla.
According to Benton County Health Officials, the major sources of particulate matter
include: activity-related and wind blown dust from construction and agriculture, wind blown
dust from open lands, outdoor and agricultural burning, wood burning stoves and fireplaces,
iii
wildfires, and motor vehicles . Walla Walla’s air quality is negatively affected by both
agriculture and residential burning, which releases smoke and other fine particulate matter
into the air. This is not only harmful to people with respiratory problems as well as healthy
people, but it also negatively impacts the health of the environment. Although agricultural
burning is monitored in relation to current weather conditions and banned during times of
thermal inversions, it still releases particulate matter into the air in high concentrations,
posing a health risk to both sensitive and healthy populations.
Although the city of Walla Walla has not experienced a major forest fire, human suppression
has greatly influenced the severity of forest fires in the surrounding counties; when fires
occur, the burns are larger and higher in heat. A report completed by Flannigan et al,
indicates that scientists from the IPCC have confirmed a “universal increases in fire
iv
frequency with climatic warming.” In general, climate change has worked to extend the fire
season in many areas across the United States—spring is coming earlier and snow is
arriving later. Although it is impossible to predict how climate change will effect forest fires
due to various factors that influence fires such as topography, ignition agents, available fuel
v
and weather, fire is responsible for particulate air pollution, haze, and ground-level ozone .
Thus, we can assume that fires will affect the community’s health. According to the Forest
Encyclopedia, because the “health effects of air pollution are so difficult to measure in the
broad population, there has been little effort to regulate or mange those effects directly.”
Air pollution affects large populations of citizens throughout Washington. It is responsible
for hundreds of deaths annually and thousands of illnesses such as asthma, respiratory tract
vi vii
irritation, heart and lung diseases, decreased immunity and increased risks of cancer. ,
16
According to a report published in 2004 by the Washington State Department of Ecology,
“Over 50% of the state’s population suffers from one or more medical conditions that make
viii
them vulnerable to air pollution.”
Air pollution not only contributes to absences from
school and work, but because residents in rural Eastern Washington are more likely to be
uninsured due to various factors such as lower incomes, old age, less education, and lower
prevalence of employment-based insurance due to the high number of small businesses in
agriculture, climate change and air pollution have important health consequences to the
residents of Walla Walla.
ix
Access to insurance is not the only barrier that residents of Walla Walla face in order to
properly diagnose and treat environmental health problems. According to an interview with
Harvey Crowder, the Walla Walla County Public Health Administrator, access to health care
x
is a growing problem in the city. Crowder indicated that even if families have insurance
and/or are willing to pay the high doctors fees, most primary care physicians in the city are
overbooked and are refusing to see any new patients. This poses a significant health and
economic burden to the residents—go untreated and/or use the emergency room doctors for
primary care. While interviewing Crowder, he made the point that the city is not thinking
about the consequences of climate change. Although Crowder recognized the potential
problems associated with a changing climate, the County Health Department lacks the
proper funding to adequately address climate related issues—indicating that it was an issue
that fell under the state and federal purview. Furthermore, Crowder indicated that even if
they did receive more funding to deal with potential issues relating to climate change, it
does not have the same urgency as teen pregnancy and/or infant malnutrition.
Since 1999, Washington asthma rates have been steadily increasing and are significantly
higher than the national average. Adult asthma rates in Walla Walla County make up some
of the highest rates in the state.
xi
Environmental conditions play an important role in the
prevention, development and management of asthma.
Exposure to allergens as well as irritants such as dust,
smoke, exhaust, ozone (smog), and particulate matter
not only trigger asthma attacks, but also increase a
person’s risk of developing asthma. Furthermore,
because the residents of Walla Walla face barriers to
accessing health care and/or insurance, cases of
asthma and other respiratory illnesses frequently go
undiagnosed and untreated for many years which may
represent in greater hospitalizations and/or emergency room visits.
According to a recent study completed by the American Academy of Allergy, Asthma and
Immunology, “increasing global temperatures and carbon dioxide levels are causing longer
xii
ragweed seasons and more concentrated pollen counts.” The report goes on to indicate
that climate change has been linked to longer pollen seasons and because Walla Walla and
the nearby towns experience high pollen counts from trees, grasses and weeds throughout
various times of the year, it is important to take steps to address and/or mitigate this
problem. According to the Benton Franklin Health District, pollen seasons are the heaviest
throughout the early spring, starting in March and lasting throughout the summer and early
xiii
fall. . Walla Walla residents already suffer from high asthma rates and the average rate of
hospitalizations due to asthma in Walla Walla from 2004-2006 was 73.62 per 100,000.
Although we normally associate Walla Walla with healthy air quality, these hospitalization
17
rates are equally comparable to the state total which showed an average rate of 77.30 per
xiv
100,000 for the same years . Furthermore, because pollen grains can travel great
distances with the wind, this poses a significant health risk to communities across
Washington and the neighboring states.
Next Steps:
Climate change is a serious crisis that is slowly
developing and magnifying in intensity. In order for
Walla Walla to ensure the health and wellbeing of its
citizens, now is the time for city officials to start
taking action and leading the way toward bold climate
action. It is important to recognize the critical link
between public and health and climate change before
the crisis imposes increasingly dire costs to human
health. Adequately addressing climate change in Walla
Walla cannot be done overnight, which is why we urge
city officials to take the necessary steps to ensure
that Walla Walla does not become an undesirable city
to live in.
Key Facts:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Air pollution in Walla Walla comes from a variety of local sources: Wind blown dust
from open lands and activity, Burning (residential, agriculture and wild fires), Pollen,
and Vehicle exhaust.
Motor vehicle exhaust contributes more than half of the air pollution in the state.
This increases the number of greenhouse gasses emitted while simultaneously
decreasing air quality.
Walla Walla is prone to thermal inversions in the winter. Inversions magnify air
pollution by trapping pollutants close to the Earth’s surface.
Burning (agricultural, residential) release particulate matter as well as smoke which
decrease air quality.
Residents of Washington State suffer from hundreds of deaths & thousands of
illnesses annually such as asthma, respiratory tract infection, heart and lung disease,
decreased immunity and cancer as a result of air pollution.
50% of the State’s population suffers from 1 or more medical conditions that make
them vulnerable to air pollution.
Residents in rural Eastern Washington are 1.4 times more likely to be uninsured than
the states average, a difference that is twice the national average. And nearly 15
percent of children in those rural areas have no insurance, nearly double the
statewide average.
Residents of Walla Walla also face barriers to accessing health care—even if families
have insurance, many doctors are now seeing any new patients because they are
overbooked.
Increasing rates of asthma throughout the State as well as in Walla Walla due to
longer pollen seasons as a result of increasing global temperatures and CO2 levels.
Walla Walla Public Health Officials need to shift their thinking about effects of climate
change to include it in the local purview.
18
Sources:
i
Washington State Department of Ecology. 2004. Washington’s Environmental Health.
Department of Ecology Publications Distribution Center. P. 38-42.
ii
"Thermal inversion and pollution." Pollution-China. 2008. 8 Dec. 2008
<http://www.pollution- china.com/blog/thermal-inversion-and-pollution.html>.
iii
"Benton Clean Air Authority." Current levels of PM in the Tri-Cities? 28 Dec. 2007. 8
Dec. 2008 <http://www.bcaa.net/laq000.htm>.
iv
"Climate Change and Forest Fires." US Global Change Research Program. 22 Nov.
1999. 8 Dec. 2008
<http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/library/nationalassessment/forests/forests5.pdf>.
v
"Estimating the Air Quality Impacts of Fire." Forest Encyclopedia Network. 14 Nov.
2008. 8 Dec. 2008 <http://www.forestencyclopedia.net/p/p629>.
vi
"Air Quality." Department of Ecology Washington State. 8 Dec. 2008
<http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/air/aginfo/agricultural_homepage.htm>.
vii
"Air Quality: Outdoor Burning." Department of Ecology Washington State. 8 Dec.
2008 <http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/air/outdoor_woodsmoke/residentialburn.htm>.
viii
Washington State Department of Ecology. 2004. Washington’s Environmental Health.
Department of Ecology Publications Distribution Center. P. 38-42.
ix
Hagar, Sheila. "RURAL KIDS WORSE OFF THAN URBAN KIDS: No easy living for
country kids." Walla Walla Union Bulletin 11 Dec. 2006.
x
Crowder, Harvey. "Wala Walla Public Health." Personal interview. 30 Oct. 2008.
xi
"Asthma Data and Surveillence." Washington State Department of Health. 05 July
2007. 8 Dec. 2008 <http://www.doh.wa.gov/cfh/asthma/data_surveillance.htm>.
xii
"Climate Change Linked to Longer Pollen Seasons." US News & World Reports. 25
Aug. 2008. 8 Dec. 2008
<http://health.usnews.com/articles/health/healthday/2008/08/25/climate-change-linkedto- longer-pollen-seasons.html>.
xiii
"Benton Clean Air Authority." Current levels of PM in the Tri-Cities? 28 Dec. 2007. 8
Dec. 2008 <http://www.bcaa.net/laq000.htm>.
xiv
Hospitalization Discharge Data: Washington State Department of Health, Offic of
Hospital and Patient Data Systems. Raw data. Dec. 2007.
19
Water Quality: the Effects of Pollution
As the previous section on water revealed, Walla Walla is certainly not immune to the
effects of climate change. We have already seen droughts, fires, and extreme windstorms.
While these are natural occurrences that have been ongoing since human history, humancaused global climate change is forecasted to increase their rate and extremity;
furthermore, it will bring to the table more elusive, yet critically linked consequences, such
including threats to human health.
This section investigates the link between climate change, water quality and the health of
the community. How will changes in water quality and availability effect public health?—
health not just in the sense of doctor visits, medical bills, and illnesses, but also with
respect to the overall well-being of the Walla Walla community.
Water and People
The quality of the water around us directly affects the quality of our lives. Aside from
economic and environmental impacts, polluted water endangers our health, our routines,
our traditions, as well as our overall well-being. Most citizens in Walla Walla take clean
water and access to clean water for granted. Without thinking twice we wash our cars,
clothes, and dishes. We take showers, brush our teeth, and water our lawns without
worrying about water running out, becoming contaminated, or making us sick. Unlike other
places in the world, citizens in Walla Walla currently treat clean water as a given. When
clean water is available, imagining a society in which access to clean water is a luxury
becomes difficult. The reality is, however, that water pollution in Walla Walla is already an
issue, and as impacts of climate change exacerbate this pollution, citizens here are closer
than ever to a losing a fundamental human right: access to clean water.
Water Quality: Current Trends in Walla Walla
In 1998 the Department of Ecology conducted an “integrated report” on Walla Walla’s water
quality in order to meet the standards demanded by the Clean Water Act. Under the Clean
Water Act, each state is required to have its own water quality standards. The standards are
designed to protect the beneficial uses—i.e. drinking water, irrigation, fishing, swimming,
wading or boating—of our streams and lakes (1). The standards are determined by water
temperature, fecal coliform bacteria content, pH levels, and PCB and pesticide levels. It is
important to note that all of the factors determining water quality are interrelated; a change
in one leads to a change in another. For example, warmer water temperatures can facilitate
the growth of bacteria such as fecal coliform (2). As we further investigate the sources and
effects of water quality impairments in Walla Walla, it is important to remember that this
interconnectedness makes meeting Walla Walla’s water quality standards difficult.
Furthermore, it is this interconnectedness that will make dealing with water pollution
problems that arise in the future with climate change more complicated to alleviate.
When a water body does not meet Washington State water quality standards for one of
these factors it is placed on the state’s Section 303(d) list of impaired water bodies. Once
placed on the 303(d) list, a water quality improvement project (also known as a Total
Maximum Daily Load, or TMDL) is normally completed (3). A TMDL is essentially an ongoing
management plan that assesses the sources of pollution, how much pollution needs to be
reduced in order to meet the standard, and establishes a plan to meet this standard.
20
The Department of Eecology found that the three major water bodies in Walla Walla were
alarmingly polluted. In 1998, The Walla Walla River, Touchet River, and Mill Creek were
placed on the 1998 303(d) list (4). Below is a list of the standards they failed to meet:
Walla Walla River
Mill Creek
Touchet River
PCBs
Temperature
Chlorinated pesticides
pH
Fecal Coliform
pH
Temperature
Temperature
Fecal Coliform
All of the impairments on the list pose a threat to the water quality that people in Walla
Walla enjoy. Of these, the Toxic chemicals and Fecal Coliform present the most direct threat
to human health.
Water Temperature in Walla Walla
While many of the effects of climate change are uncertain, there is certainly one thing that
is guaranteed: a change in temperature. All three of the major bodies of water did not meet
the temperature standard. And Mill Creek, the source of 90 percent of Walla Walla’s drinking
water, was listed as exceptionally high in temperature (5). Part of the temperature standard
TMDL requires reducing the ways in which humans are contributing to the warming.
According to Don Butcher, this means monitoring waste from large industries such as the
paper mill. When it came
to local, smaller solutions
he suggested community
projects to clean up our
water sources. However,
many
of
the
water
warming issues are so
interrelated
that
decreasing
humancaused warming is a
significant and difficult
task.
The temperature TMDL
plan in
these areas
involves planting trees
around the streams to
increase shade, and in
turn,
decrease
water
Figure 1Figure 2: Current water temperature standards in
temperature. While the
Walla Walla. Numeric freshwater quality criteria for Class AA,
TMDL has succeeded in
Class A, Class B state that the temperature shall not exceed
the sense that the plan
the following: AA (extraordinary) 16.0 C; A (excellent) 18 C;
B (Good) 24C.
displays
some
commitment to combating water pollution issues, the TMDL still remain relatively
ineffective. First of all, the benefits we receive from the efforts are long term (it takes up to
fifty years for a tree to reach a full canopy); additionally, the trees only provide shade for
the narrow portions of the water bodies, thereby leaving the middle reaches of the
watershed vulnerable to warming and associated pollution (6).
21
When water temperatures are too high, streams can become uninhabitable for fish and
other aquatic animals, causing a chain of ecological consequences. Many of the fish that
residents in Walla Walla enjoy fishing and eating require a strict range of temperature in
order to survive. When the water is too warm, many species will experience decreased
spawning and even death. Because of the already endangered fish in Walla Walla’s river, the
standard for water temperature in this region is particularly high. Below is an image that
shows the areas in Walla Walla where a fish consumption advisory has been posted. While
part of this advisory is being influenced by the presence of PCBS and chlorinated pesticides
in the water, the image still serves to illustrate the current health parameters assigned to
the water bodies (7).
Aside from impacts on fishing and recreation, increased water temperature will have
significant health effects. As mentioned earlier, warmer water temperature can facilitate the
growth of disease-causing bacteria. One example is fecal coliform.
Fecal coliform is a group of bacteria found in the feces of warm-blooded animals that enters
the water from failing septic tanks and animal waste. It is a good indicator of the presence
of other disease-carrying organisms, and thus the Department of Ecology uses its presence
to assess the general health of an aquatic ecosystem (8). A long history of illness outbreaks
and epidemics points to a relationship between the presence of fecal coliform bacteria and
the presence of illness-causing viruses and bacteria, called pathogens. These pathogens can
be accidentally swallowed. People swimming or playing in water can be exposed to
pathogens when they enter the body through small cuts, abrasions or mucus membranes.
Some of the symptoms of illness associated with fecal coliform pathogens are minor, such
as upset stomach, diarrhea, ear infections, and rashes. However, some pathogens, such as
E coli, hepatitis, and salmonella, can have very severe health effects (9). As temperatures
increase, and runoff increases from flooding or unpredictable weather patterns, fecal
coliform levels in water will also increase, along with the occurrence of their negative health
effects.
Water Quantity
Overconsumption of water in Walla Walla is an equally important problem to water quality.
With a population of over 40,000, the county has a high demand for water. These demands
become even higher with the large rural population in Walla Walla who depend on water to
irrigate their crops. A recent study conducted by the city council found that the water used
during the week of September 15 through September 21 averaged 14.95 million gallons per
day (this includes all residential, commercial, and industrial use). As noted earlier climate
change will place stress on our water availability through droughts and fires, in addition to
the significant demand that citizens already place on our water sources.
As water temperatures rise and quality water sources become less accessible, competition
and tension between high domestic water use and water for agriculture will intensify. It is
crucial, given the link between temperature increase, decreased water supply, and
increased pollutant content, that Walla Walla pursue alternative modes of water
conservation for agricultural and domestic use. In light of these findings, the city should a)
pilot programs that recognize water primarily as a community resource, not merely a
private one, b) discuss a moratorium on new golf courses, c) increase visibility and
stringency of guidelines for most efficient water use, and d) provide resources to help
residents replant water-intensive lawns and implement other water-conserving practices.
22
Conclusion
We all know that we cannot live without water. We also all know that our activities on land
affect not only the availability of our water, but also the quality of our water. Overloaded
waterways can degrade quickly, resulting in loss of fisheries, increased water-borne
diseases, scarcity of safe drinking water and declining water-based activities such as
irrigated agriculture and food production. My research shows that, if they are not changed,
the current ways in which we satisfy our basic need for water in Walla Walla will increasingly
endanger our health and livelihoods.
The next step with respect to exacerbated water problems in Walla Walla arising from
climate change is planning—planning to enforce the TMDLs reported by the Department of
Ecology, planning for funding public health issues related to water pollution, and planning
for educating the public about water quality issues. Walla Walla has already made huge
leaps in combating water pollution—we have already seen success in restoring riparian
habitats and removing toxic chemicals. It is of course unrealistic to prohibit all of our
discharges and water use in Walla Walla, but being prepared for the issues that will arise
with climate change and water quality is central to our own health and well-being, as well as
the health and well-being of our children in the future.
Key Points:
•
•
•
•
•
There is a critical link between public health and water quality: As water sources
diminish, water pollution will be compounded, and therefore increase the threat to
human health.
Water pollution is already a significant issue in Walla Walla.
Increasing temperature caused by climate change will make meeting Walla Walla's
already high standards of water quality even harder.
Large-scale motivation from industries, as well as commitment to changing
household use practices will be central to alleviating Walla Walla's water quality
issues.
The city should lead the effort to change water-use behavior in Walla Walla, starting
by making educational materials more widely available. It should then encourage
alternatives to lawns, and discuss a moratorium on new golf courses.
Sources:
1) Clean Air Act. 21 Nov. 2008. Environmental Protection Agency. 26 Nov. 2008
<http://www.epa.gov/air/caa/>.
2) Butcher, Don. "Climate Change and Water Quality." Telephone interview. 1 Nov. 2008.
3) Water Quality in Walla Walla. 6 Dec. 2001. The Department of Ecology. 2 Nov. 2008
<http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/wq/tmdl/wallawalla/index.html>.
4) The Status. 6 Dec. 2001. The Department of Ecology. 2 Nov. 2008
<http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/wq/tmdl/wallawalla/index.html>.
5) The Status. 6 Dec. 2001. The Department of Ecology. 2 Nov. 2008
23
<http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/wq/tmdl/wallawalla/index.html>.
6) Butcher, Don. "Climate Change and Water Quality." Telephone interview. 1 Nov. 2008.
7) Fish Consumption Advisory. 6 Dec. 2001. The Department of Ecology. 2 Nov. 2008
<http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/wq/tmdl/wallawalla/index.html>.
8) Fecal Coliform. 6 Dec. 2001. The Department of Ecology. 2 Nov. 2008
<http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/wq/tmdl/wallawalla/index.html>.
9) Fecal Coliform. 6 Dec. 2001. The Department of Ecology. 2 Nov. 2008
http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/wq/tmdl/wallawalla/index.html.
24
Climate Change and Biodiversity
The expected climate change scenarios for the Pacific Northwest have the potential to
greatly affect the biodiversity of Walla Walla County. Specifically, the drier summers that
are expected due to decreased snow pack and earlier spring melts may be particularly
devastating to ecological systems in eastern Washington. This devastation will be in the
form of changes in community structure as a result of increased temperatures. Increased
temperature may cause established native species to shift or confine their ranges to cooler
parts of the state or country, while invasive species will expand their ranges to fill available
niches in the ecosystem (1). Increased temperatures will also likely result in decreased soil
moisture, resulting in drier fuel loads in forests that contribute to more frequent and intense
wildfires. In addition to species shifts and increased wildfires, increased temperatures may
cause changes in growth rates and flowering time of many plant species, which could alter
the natural succession and integrity of ecosystems. There are many ways in which climate
change has the potential to affect biodiversity, but little data exists to date concerning the
specific impacts of climate change in Walla Walla County. Using projected climate change
scenarios, predictions can be made as to how ecosystems may be affected, but monitoring
studies are needed to establish baseline data so that any negative ecosystem responses can
be mitigated before valuable resources and species are lost forever. This section of the
report focuses on four main ways in which biodiversity may be adversely effected by climate
change: through the loss of native species, the invasion of non-native species, increased
pest infestations in forests, and increased forest fires. Though aquatic and sand dune
ecosystems are addressed, forest ecosystems will likely face the most threats as a result of
climate change and serve as the focus of this section. Part of the Umatilla National Forest is
located in the southeastern portion of the county and will be the site of most of the
predicted effects due to climate change concerning biodiversity in Walla Walla County.
Loss of Native Species
Climate change is likely to cause many species in the Pacific Northwest to shift their ranges,
which may result in local population extinctions due to inability to adapt to a changing
climate. (2). Walla Walla County is home to several threatened animal and plant species as
listed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. These species are particularly at risk because
they have already suffered severe population declines in this area, and any further loss of
habitat as a result of climate change may result in local extinctions. Two such species are
discussed in the following section: bull trout and the shrubby plant gray cryptantha. These
species are associated with aquatic and sand dune ecosystems, respectively, and serve as
representatives for multiple species with similar habitat requirements that may also suffer
as a result of climate change.
Bull Trout
Bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) is currently listed as threatened in Walla Walla County by
the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (3). Bull trout are likely to face even more severe
population declines with the expected 3.5ºF increase in temperature in the Pacific Northwest
by the 2040s. Their specific habitat requirements make them more susceptible to the
negative impacts of climate change than most other fish species. They require the coldest
water temperature of any Northwest salmonid, and are rarely found in waters above 59º64ºF (4). Studies have shown that an air temperature increase is linked to an increase in
stream water temperature (5). For every 1º C increase in air temperature, stream water
temperature will likely increase by 0.6º-0.8ºC. Surface water temperatures will increase by
25
as much as 2º-3º C due to a 3º-5º C increase in air temperature. Such increases in water
temperature could have drastic effects on bull trout populations because of its narrow
temperature tolerance. It is known that certain factors, primarily damaged riparian
vegetation, increased sedimentation, and decreased water flows, which have raised water
temperatures, have decreased the range of bull trout in the Touchet river watershed (6).
Thus, the expected increase in air temperature, which is correlated with a subsequent
increase in water temperature, will also decrease the range of this threatened species.
Bull Trout are either migratory, moving to larger bodies of water to rear young and
returning to smaller bodies of water to reproduce, or resident, spending their entire life in
the same stream or creek (4); both will be severely impacted by an increase in air water
temperature. Migratory bull trout in Walla Walla County are heavily reliant on the Columbia
River for access to the Pacific Ocean, but the Columbia River streamflow is significantly
reduced during warm periods (2), which could affect migratory success. Resident bull trout
are also susceptible to reduced stream flows and high water temperatures.
Gray Cryptantha
Cryptantha leucophaea, commonly known as gray cryptantha, is a shrubby plant that is
currently listed as a ‘species of concern’ for Walla Walla County by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service (3). Gray cryptantha is endemic to Walla Walla County and is primarily restricted to
sand dunes that have not stabilized near the Columbia River. This shrub requires sandy
substrate, bare ground, and surface active sands (7). One of the greatest threats to gray
cryptantha currently is loss of habitat to increased weed invasions. Sand dune ecosystems
themselves are threatened by the stabilization of exotic species. Sand dunes require open
spaces to allow the movement of sand which shapes the dune. Native plants associated with
sand dunes anchor the dunes, but do not stabilize them permanently by covering the
ground completely, still allowing the movement of sand. Sand dunes are heavily responsive
to changes in climate because increased precipitation in the form of rain, facilitates
colonization of dunes by invasive species. Essentially covered with ground litter and
vegetation, the sand cannot actively move and loses its formation. Twelve rare plant
species, including gray cryptantha, and nine rare vertebrate species are associated with
sand dunes in Washington and could lose their habitat due to climate change. These unique
ecosystems have already suffered dramatic declines in Walla Walla County. Invasions by
non-native species, primarily cheatgrass, are the greatest threat to sand dunes in
Washington, and similarly, the continued existence of gray cryptantha.
Invasion of Non-Native Species
Invasions of non-native species, mainly in the form of invasive weeds, are already a serious
threat to the Umatilla National forest. There are currently 24 known invasive plant species
in the Umatilla National Forest, which have infested an area of over 25,000 acres (8).
Management plans to eradicate and control invasive weeds are already in development
because the effects of these plants on ecosystem health are serious: invasive weeds have
the potential to displace or alter native plants communities, increase fire hazards and
reduce water quality. It is clear that invasive weeds have been a problem long before the
effects of climate change were becoming well known. It is disputable whether climate
change is the sole underlying force driving invasion because the establishment of many
non-natives has also been a result of human agricultural management practices (9). Weeds
are generally better adapted to reduced tillage systems and are more resistant to commonly
26
used herbicides than native plants. However, invasions can be linked with climate change
because invasive species are better adapted to withstand the environmental stresses that
are expected as a result of climate change than native plants. The invasive weeds kudzu
and dalmatian toadflax, described in greater detail below, show advantageous adaptations
to drought, fire, and disturbance, which allow them to outcompete native plants for
resources. Because longer summer drought periods and an increase in the number of forest
fires are expected in Eastern Washington as a result of climate change, it is very likely these
invasive weed populations will flourish at the expense of native plants.
Kudzu (Pueraria lobata)
Though this species is not one of the 24 listed invasive plants in the Umatilla National
Forest, it is gaining more importance in this region according Washington State University
weed specialist Joe Yenish. The range of this species has typically been restricted to the
southeastern United States, but its occurrence is becoming more frequent in Oregon and
Washington (9, 10) and is listed as a noxious weed in both states (11). This species is
effective at invading new habitats because it does not have specific soil requirements and
can establish in a variety of conditions (10). It thrives in regions with hot summers
(typically above 80 F) and mild, wet winters (typically 40-60 F), which are becoming more
common in Walla Walla county. Kudzu is a species of concern because it has the potential to
detrimentally impact trees in the Umatilla National Forest. It is a trailing perennial vine that
causes damage by enveloping and killing mature trees and arresting the successional
development of plant communities. Kudzu is resistant to fires because it maintains high
water content in its tissues and keeps root crowns below the soil surface, which escapes fire
damage. Kudzu may even thrive as a result of fire events. Through the process of
scarification, the seed coat of Kudzu seeds are softened by the heat of fires, which speeds
up the process of germination. Thus, it is able to colonize an area quickly after devastation
by fire and outcompete native plant establishment.
Dalmatian Toadflax (Linaria genistifolia)
Dalmatian toadflax is one of the 24 known invasive weeds in the Umatilla National Forest
(8). It is of particular threat because it is very drought resistant, a quality that will enhance
its success in the extended summer droughts Walla Walla county will likely experience as a
result of climate change. Dalmatian toadflax is an herbaceous perennial with an extensive
taproot that can reach up to 10 feet underground, allowing it to exploit water resources in
times of drought (12). Plants also produce copious amounts of seeds, enhancing
reproductive success. A single plant may produce 500,000 seeds per year. Seeds germinate
in both fall and spring and can remain dormant in the soil for up to 10 years, making
eradication of this weed difficult. Dalmatian toadflax typically flowers May-August, but can
flower earlier and for longer periods in warmer temperatures. Because of its extensive root
system, dalmatian toadflax is also able to survive during severe fire events. It establishes
quickly after fire, and plant establishment may even be promoted due to reduced
competition from native plant species.
More Pests in Forests
Pests have historically been a problem in the Umatilla National Forest, with insects such as
the Douglas Fir beetle, Fir Engraver beetle, and Douglas Fir Tussock moths causing damage
to thousands of acres of forest (13). According to US Forest Service’s 2007 Insect and
27
Disease Detection Survey, the Umatilla National Forest suffered significant tree mortalities
as a result of five different beetles (14). Of these, the Fir Engraver and Douglas fir beetle
are of particular threat to the Umatilla National Forest (13,14). Also of particular threat to
the Umatilla National Forest is the Douglas Fir Tussock Moth (13), which defoliates trees,
making them more susceptible to beetle attack, and ultimately, death. These pests are a
threat to the forest ecosystem because they not only kill trees and thus destroy valuable
carbon sinks, but these dead trees also contribute to the fuel load for potential fires. Each of
these pests and their potential impact is described greater detail below.
Fir Engraver (Scolytus ventralis)
The fir engraver attacks most species of fir in the western United States (15). These beetles
bore entrances into trees along the main trunk and excavate egg galleries in the sapwood.
This is harmful because it disrupts the flow of water and nutrients to other parts of the tree
and effectively kills branches. The foliage turns shades of yellow and red 3-6 months
following the attack. Eventually, the entire tree will die. Trees are especially susceptible to
attacks following outbreaks of defoliating insects, which have certain prominence in the
Umatilla National Forest, as will be described shortly. The fir engraver generally takes a year
to complete one generation, however, in warmer locations, they may complete one and a
half generations per year, increasing infestations. Increased temperatures that Walla Walla
County will likely face by the 2040s may cause an increase in fir engraver infestations, and
consequently, increased fir tree deaths.
Douglas Fir Beetle (Dendroctonus pseudotsugae)
These beetles also attack Douglas fir trees, but focus their attacks on trees that have been
weakened by drought, fire, competition, diseases, and other insect attack (16). Since
climate change in Walla Walla County will likely increase the probability of drought and
forest fires, even more trees will be susceptible to attack by Douglas Fir Beetles. Douglas Fir
beetles also breed in injured or diseased firs. In Washington, population explosions
consequently occur following drought, large fires, and windstorms. It is probable that
population explosions will sharply increase with the expected effects of climate change in
Walla Walla County. Douglas fir beetles kill trees in a manner very similar to that of fir
engravers. They also attack Western larch trees, which are found in the Umatilla National
Forest as well.
Douglas Fir Tussock Moth (Orgyia pseudotsugata)
These moths are defoliators of the true firs, and increase the susceptibility of host trees to
attack by other insects such as fir engravers (17). The larvae of Douglas Fir Tussock Moths
feed on current and old foliage. This sort of defoliation kills or top-kills many trees. In
addition to Douglas firs, these moths also defoliate subalpine fir, grand firs, Ponderosa pine,
Engelmann spruce, and Western larch trees. A past outbreak in the Blue Mountains killed
39% of all trees, making clear its destructive effect on forest ecosystems. Though the
Douglas fir tussock moth generation period is not as influenced by an increase in
temperature, fir stands growing on warm, dry sites are more susceptible to damage by
these insects, thereby increasing the potential damage of tussock moths due to warmer
temperatures which are expected with climate change.
28
Increase in Forest Fires
One of the greatest concerns about forest fires is that they destroy valuable carbon sinks,
and in doing so, re-release carbon back into the atmosphere. Washington forests have
sequestered an equivalent of one third of the states greenhouse gas emission in carbon (18)
Forests are a key player in capturing the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide and therefore
reducing the harmful impacts of climate change. Consequently, increased forest fires are of
particular threat because they destroy this valuable resource. As expected, with increased
temperatures and drier summers, forest fires will likely become more prevalent in
Washington (18).
The amount of forest fires in the Umatilla National Forest have increased in the last 25
years, when compared to the last 100 years, which has resulted in decreased fire return
intervals (19). A fire return interval is the number of years between successive fire events
at a specific site. A decreased fire return interval means that fires are occurring more
frequently at the same sites. The Umatilla National Forest has historically been dominated
by low intensity fires, but now it is dominated by high intensity fires, which cause more
damage because they release more heat. Therefore, the Umatilla National Forest is not only
seeing more frequent fires, but also more damaging fires.
In Washington, fires which covered an area larger than five hundred acres increased from
an average of six per year in the 1970s to twenty-one per year in the twenty first century
(20). An average year in the 2020s, taking projected temperature increase into account, will
show a 50% increase in the number of acres burned in forest fires, and an average year in
the 2040s will show a 100% increase in the average number of acres burned. This will
obviously result in extensive habitat loss for many species in the Umatilla National forest
and will likely cause species to shift their ranges (2). Species range shifts will occur on an
individualistic basis, instead of collection of associated species all moving together. This may
result in extinction of certain local populations of species and will certainly result in different
species assemblages in newly colonized areas and burned areas.
Key Points:
• Temperature increases will cause many native species to shift or confine their ranges
• Bull trout and gray cryptantha are two species which are likely to suffer population
declines as a result of climate change
• Invasive species, such as kudzu and dalmatian toadflax, are better able to withstand
drought and fire than native plants, and so will outcompete them for resources.
• Forest insect pests, such as the fir engraver, Douglas fir beetle, and Douglas fir
tussock moth, are significant threats to the health of trees in the Umatilla National
forest
• Water-stressed trees, as a result of longer drought periods, are more susceptible to
insect pest attack
• Forest fires destroy valuable carbon sinks
• Drier summers will result in increased forest fire frequency and more damaging fires
Sources:
1) Lawler, Joshua L., and Molly Mathias. Climate Change and the Future of Biodiversity in
Washington. Rep.No. College of Forest Resources, University of Washington. Seattle, WA:
University of Washington, 2007.
2) Mote, Philip. Impacts of Climate Variability and Change in the Pacific Northwest. Climate
29
Impacts Group, University of Washington.
3) Northern Idaho and Eastern Washington Endangered, Threatened, Proposed, and
Candidate Species by County. Aug. 2006. United States Fish and Wildlife Service. Fall 2008
4) Bulltrout. United States Fish and Wildlife Service. Fall 2008
<http://www.fws.gov/pacific/bulltrout/>.
5) Morrill, Jean C., Roger C. Bales, and Martha H. Conklin. "Estimating Stream Temperature
From Air Temperature: Implications for Future Water Quality." Journal of Environmental
Engineering 131 (2005): 139-46.
6) Mendel, Glen, Chris Fulton, and Rey Weldert. An Investigation Into the Migratory
Behavior of Bull Trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in the Touchet River Basin. Rep.No.
Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife. Dayton, WA, 2003.
7) Hallock, Lisa A., Ryan D. Haugo, and Rex Crawford. Conservation Strategy for
Washington State Inland Sand Dunes. Rep.No. Natural Heritage Program, Washington State
Department of Natural Resources. 2007.
8) Invasive Plant Treatment Project Draft Environmental Impact Statement. United States
Forest Service, United States Department of Agriculture. 2007.
9) Yenish, Joseph. E-mail interview. 24 Oct. 2008.
10) "SPECIES: Pueraria montana var. lobata." United States Forest Service. Fall 2008
<http://http://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/plants/vine/puemonl/all.html>.
11) "Pueraria montana (Lour.) Merr. var. lobata (Willd.) Maesen & S. Almeida." Plants
Database. United States Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service.
Fall 2008 <http://plants.usda.gov/java/profile?symbol=pumol>.
12) "SPECIES: Linaria spp." United States Forest Service. Fall 2008
<http://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/plants/forb/linspp/all.html>.
13) Meredith, Su. Telephone interview. 10 Oct. 2008.
14) "National Insect and Disease Risk Map/Data." United States Forest Service. Fall 2008
<http://www.fs.fed.us/foresthealth/technology/nidrm.shtml>.
15) Ferrell, George T. Forest Insect and Disease Leaflet- Fir Engraver. 1986.
16) "Douglas Fir Beetle." Forest Health Notes: A Series for the Non-Industrial Private
Landowner. Washington State University Department of Natural Resources Sciences
Extension. Fall 2008.
17) Wickman, Boyd E., Richard R. Mason, and Galen C. Trostle. Forest Insect and Disease
Leaflet- Douglas Fir Tussock Moth. 1998.
18) "Climate Change." State of Washington Department of Ecology. Fall 2008
<http://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/>.
19) Countryman, Bruce. Calculating Fire Regime Condition Class, Fire Frequency, and Fire
30
Severity for the Blue Mountains Forest Plan Revision. Rep.No. 2007.
20) Impacts of Climate Change on Washington's Economy: A Preliminary Assessment of
Risks and Opportunities. Rep.No. 07-01-0-10. Washington State Department of Ecology.
2006.
31
Economic Impacts
Climate change will affect the Walla Walla economy both directly and indirectly. Changes in
weather patterns will alter production and economic activity in Walla Walla. The impacts of
climate change on distant markets can also have equally significant impacts at home. The
overall precipitation is expected to remain constant over the projection period until 2040,
but changes in seasonal distribution will alter run-off patterns and water availability for
agriculture, industry, and electricity generation.
Climate change will provide both significant challenges and growth opportunities to Walla
Walla county. The overall effect of changing climactic conditions on the area's economy is
impossible to estimate with accuracy, due to the high integration of Walla Walla's production
and trade in the state, national, and international economy.
Agriculture
Climate change affects agriculture through direct regional impact on growing conditions. Its
global agricultural impact will also affect Walla Walla agricultural sector. Water distribution
will be the main local challenge, although temperature increases may also disrupt the
production of certain crops.
•
•
•
•
Average annual precipitation is not currently projected to change significantly, but
more winter precipitation will fall as rain.
Snow pack is expected to melt earlier in the spring, depressing summer stream
flows. This is likely to reduce water availability for agriculture.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are expected to increase, a change that
may promote crop growth, but may also favor weeds.
University of Washington Climate Impacts Group predicts a 2.2°F increase by 2020
and 3.5°F raise by 2040. Overall warming is predicted to reach 5.2°F at the highest
end of the prediction range (Climate Change Scenarios).
Losses in snow pack and earlier runoff reduce summer stream flows, aquifer recharge, and
moisture retention. The irrigation supply is further complicated because water rights are
based on "first in time, first in right" can lead to scarce water resources being allocated to
crops with lower market values than ones covered by junior water rights.
A 2006 study of water distribution in Yakima valley estimates that under current conditions
there is a 14% probability that junior water rights holders will face pro-rationing of at least
50%. Simply put, there is a 14% probability that the junior right farmer may receive only
half or less of needed water. Under a 3.6°F warming scenario, that probability increases to
54%, meaning that more than half of the farmers receive half of the optimal amount
(Michael et al. 2004).
Although elevated carbon dioxide levels can increase plant growth rate, both crop and weed
productivity in Walla Walla is unlikely to be affected. According to the Impacts of Climate
Change on Washington Economy (ICCWE) report, no scientific measurements of this
phenomenon have been reported for Washington State, but one assessment predicted
minimal impact as water availability, rather than carbon dioxide scarcity appears to be the
limiting factor for plant growth in the state (Bauman et al. 2006).
32
According to the ICCWE report, effects of climate change on the winegrape industry are
likely to be mixed. The report warns of warming potentially pushing wine growing areas in
Eastern Washington toward the upper limits of temperature tolerance ranges for some
important winegrape varieties within the next half-century, which could affect the vineyards
in the Walla Walla valley and the Columbia valley, which provides grapes for the area's
wineries (Bauman et al. 2006).
The ICCWE concludes that "shifts in the global marketplace appear likely to be more
significant Climate change drivers for Washington farms than the direct economic impacts of
changes in temperature and precipitation experienced in the state" (Bauman et al. 2006).
Changes in conditions in the other major commodities growing regions can markedly impact
prices and demand for the crops grown in the Walla Walla valley, for example, wheat. A
2007 drought in Australia created a shortage of wheat and raised prices, benefiting the
farmers in Eastern Washington. With predicted increase of extreme weather all over the
world such volatility can be expected to amplify, increasing prospects for both profits and
losses (The Star Tribune 09/01/2008).
Snow Sports
Reduced snow cover could shorten the season at the winter outdoors activities sites in
vicinity of Walla Walla, reducing recreation opportunities for the areas inhabitants and
decrease tourism potential.
Average winter temperatures (October through March) are projected to increase 1.7ºF by
the 2020s and 2.5ºF by the 2040s, compared with averages for 1970-1999. Higher
temperatures will affect snow accumulation and snowmelt at ski areas.
Winter precipitation will include more rain and less snow as temperatures rise.
A 2005 study of Washington's ski areas indicate that low altitude sites are particularly
sensitive to changes in temperature. Currently, Bluewood ski resort has about 3% chance in
any given year to experience a winter that is too warm for usable snow cover to
accumulate. If the temperature rises by 0.9ºF the possibility increases to 27%, and in case
of a 2.7ºF warming, Bluewood would welcome skiers only 3 winters out 5 (40% chance of
excessively warm winter) (Nolin 2006).
Electricity
Water, the resource most vulnerable to the whims of climate change, is also the main
source of energy in Washington State. Hydro-power serves 72% of the state's energy,
whereas coal (11%), nuclear power (8%), natural gas (7%), and other renewable resources
(2%) contribute fairly marginally to power generation (Bauman et al. 2006). The Columbia
and Snake rivers in fact, provide 40% of hydropower in the US (Northwest River Partners,
no date).
As previously iterated, climate change will induce snowpack to melt much earlier in the
year. During the summer, rivers usually depend on snow-melt for a boost in its water
supply. Rivers are estimated to see a re-allocation of its summer water supply to earlier
seasons (Bauman et al. 2006). This will in turn shift the timing of peak hydropower
production and power generation in general. This shift will disturb the current status quo of
the hydropower sector.
33
There are two main types of hydropower facilities: storage facilities and run-of-river
facilities, which do not have a reservoir storage system to control the timing of hydropower
production according to demand (NRP, no date). Because they cannot control the amount of
water running through the powerhouse, run-of-the-river dams do not fair well under
inconsistent flows (NRP, no date). As climate change causes an excess of water in the
winters, which cannot all be stored as potential energy, the major Columbia and Snake
River dams will incur losses. Water that would have supplied electricity under high summer
demand will now only be available in the winter.
This energy loss may also be exacerbated by a shift in people’s demand for electricity due to
climate change. Warmer summers and greater AC needs will drive up the demand for
electricity, and warmer winters will reduce the demand for heating (Bauman et al. 2006).
Climate change-related deviations in water flow are likely to incur additional costs to the
hydropower industry as river conditions make fish and wildlife requirements harder to meet
(Bauman et al. 2006). Changing dam structures, developing fish ladders, and creating more
water storage options are additional measures that may become necessary.
By 2020, climate change may incur a $777 million gain or a $233 million loss in the
hydropower sector (Bauman et al. 2006). These estimates illuminate the fact that
measuring the possible effects of climate change on biological systems is an extremely
uncertain and challenging matter. Scientists have inadequate resources to predict effects
with reasonable accuracy, because climate change is an unprecedented phenomenon within
human history.
Walla Walla County does not use hydropower as heavily as the rest of the state. Instead, it
uses a non-state power supplier. Pacific Power technically uses a range of different
resources for energy production in an effort to increase renewable resource usage (Davis,
2007). However, its main source remains carbon-emitting coal. Pacific Power incorporates
the potential cost of CO2 emissions in its resource planning (Davis, 2007). The company
assumes an $8 per ton value in its forecasts for natural gas prices and allowances for
nitrogen oxide and sulfur dioxide emissions over a 20-year period (Davis 2007). Carbon
costs are attributed to emissions associated with different portfolios. Their emissions are
currently capped at 2000 levels. In light of the cap, coal-heavy portfolios look very
unattractive (Davis 2007). Hence, the increase atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration
will prompt energy companies to pursue less-emitting forms of energy (Davis 2007). This is
likely to have negative effects on the electric market price forecast (Bauman et al. 2006).
The effects of climate change are likely to increase the costs of electricity in Walla Walla. It
is difficult to accurately predict how much, especially because the overall predicted impact
on the hydropower market is widely variable. More immediate impacts are likely to make
bills costlier for Walla Walla residents, and force an adjustment in both amount and type of
energy used in daily life.
Forest Resources
As detailed in previous sections, earlier snow-pack melting will also reduce the supply of
water and moisture to forests in Walla Walla, thus extending the fire season (Bauman et al.
2006).
Although atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration may stimulate more tree growth, the
temperature rise it induces will compound the severity of forest fires. The ICCWE has
34
projected that there may be a 50% increase in the number of acres burned by 2020
(Bauman et al. 2006).
By 2040, the number of burned acres is expected to increase by 100% from the ‘average
year’ (Bauman et al. 2006). As a consequence, the cost of fire preparedness and response
are expected to rise from $12million- $18million by 2020, and to $24 million by 2040. These
are only the expected costs for fire preparedness (Bauman et al. 2006).
Direct state costs could increase from $24million- $39million by 2020 and reach $52million
by 2040 (Bauman et al. 2006). Federal expenditures could increase from $24million$36million in 2020, and by 2040 expenditures may reach $48 million (Bauman et al. 2006).
Altogether, it is highly likely that by 2020 forest fire suppression expenditures will rise to at
least $33 million (Bauman et al. 2006).
Business Opportunities
Climate change can both enhance and negatively affect future business opportunities.
Threats and opportunities arise from local climate changes, external regulations, and shifts
in market demands. We can safely expect:
• Increasing demand for renewable energy sources
• Declining demand for fossil fuels corresponding with restrictions on the use of fossil
fuel technologies
Increased demand for renewable energy and more efficient technologies can be expected
due government regulations and incentives. The Governor's Climate Change and Green
Collar Jobs bill (House Bill 2815) and renewable energy incentive programs stimulate
demand for renewable energy production and the growth of employment in the renewables
industries. Federal incentives are also available for emerging alternative technologies and
energy efficiency measures (Washington's Green Economy) (Broehl 05/10/2005).
Additionally, demand from consumers might favor renewable energy. Pacific Power's Blue
Sky program lists 22 Walla Walla companies purchasing the utility's renewable energy
program- the highest number of any community of the size within the program area (Blue
Sky Participants List).
Walla Walla valley holds large potential for both surface and subterranean carbon capture
and sequestration. Surface sequestration in forestry, farming, and other land management
forms can provide additional income to landowners (Robbins 08/05/2007). The basalt
aquifer has attracted attention as a potential site for underground carbon sequestration and
the feasibility of the technology is being investigated, but no current development plans
have been announced (Hillhouse 10/31/08) (Big Sky Partnership). Public pressure against
carbon sequestration could continue to hamper the development of the technology (Coal
Concerns Web Site 2008).
Climate change and efforts to avert it add to the inherent fuel market volatility and
contribute to rising costs of energy, thereby indirectly affecting local businesses. The region
is also likely to see an increase in energy cost due to government regulation on energy
generation. The Washington state government has mandated substantial greenhouse gas
emission reductions over the next 40 years (25% below 1990 levels by 2035), which
includes restrictions on new generating capacity using fossil fuels, likely to lead to
increasing electricity rates (Climate Change Law Alert 2007).
35
Increased depreciation of capital can be expected due to a variety of direct climate change
effects as well as global and national market changes triggered by warming. For example,
public infrastructure such as roads, bridges and storm water systems may need to be
replaced at accelerated rates because they will be exposed to weather conditions or water
levels for which they were not designed. Businesses may find that capital expenditures
expected to depreciate over a long time period may need to turn over faster as markets
adjust to new climatic conditions.
Key Facts:
•
•
•
•
•
Climate change will significantly affect the Walla Walla economy.
Regulations due to state and federal climate change policies will affect energy supply
and raise prices.
More precipitation as rain will reduce snow cover during winter and melt water
supply for irrigation and soil moisture during summer.
Climate change policies will affect regulations on industry, favoring low-carbon
industries and disadvantaging industries with large carbon dioxide emissions.
Climate change will provide opportunities for development of innovative and nontraditional business models.
Sources:
Bauman, Yoram, Bob Doppelt, Sarah Mazza, and Edward C. Wolf. Impacts of Climate
Change on Washington’s Economy. Rep.No. Depertment of Ecology, Washington State.
Impacts of Climate Change on Washington's Economy. Nov. 2006. Department of Ecology. 5
Dec. 2008 <http://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/economic_impacts.htm>.
Blue Sky Participants List A-L. Pacific Power Corp. 5 Dec. 2008
<http://www.pacificpower.net/navigation/navigation20208.html#walla_walla>.
Broehl, Jesse. "Washington State Passes Progressive Renewable Energy Legislation."
Renewablenergyworld.com. 10 May 2005. 5 Dec. 2008
<http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/story?id=28478>.
"Climate Change Law Alert: Washington State Adopts GHG Emissions Reduction
Legislation." 4 May 2007. Stoel Rivers LLP Attorneys at Law. 5 Dec. 2008
<http://www.stoel.com/showalert.aspx?show=2355>.
"Climate Change Scenarios." Climate Impact Group. 1 Aug. 2008. Univeristy of Washington.
5 Dec. 2008 <http://cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/ccscenarios.shtml>.
"Coalconcerns Web Site." 30 May 2008. Coal Plant Working Group, Walla Walla, WA. 5 Dec.
2008 <http://www.coalconcerns.org/>.
Davis, Kyle. "Pacificorp Global Climate Change Action Plan." Pacificorp. 9 Nov. 2007
<http://www.pacificorp.com/File/File77871.pdf>.
"Eastern Washington’s wheat growers suffer another setback." The New Tribune. 1 Sept.
2008. 5 Dec. 2008 <http://www.thenewstribune.com/business/story/467501.html>.
36
Hillhouse, Vicki. "Carbon project gets new home." Walla Walla Union Bulletin. 31 Oct.
2008.5 Dec. 2008 <http://www.unionbulletin.com/articles/2008/10/31/local_news/081031local01carbon%20storage%20at%20b
oi.txt>.
Michael, Scott J., Lance W. Vail, Claudio Stoeckle, and Armen Kemanian. University Council
of Water Resources, Allocating Water: Economics and the Environment, 20 June 2004,
Portland, OR. University Council of Water Resources. University Council of Water Resources.
5 Dec. 2008
<http://www.ucowr.siu.edu/proceedings/2004%20proceedings/2004%20ucowr%20confere
nce%20proceedings/tuesday/am%20technical%20sessions/session%205/mj%20scott.pdf>.
Nolin, A. W., and C. Daly, Mapping "at-risk" snow in the Pacific Northwest, U. S. A., J.
Hydrometeorol. 7, 1166-1173, 2006.
Northwest River Partners. “ Hydropower’s Importance to the Northwest”. No Date.
<http://www.nwriverpartners.org/pdf/importance_of_hydropower.pdf>
Robbins, Jim. "Sale of Carbon Credits Helping Land-Rich, but Cash-Poor, Tribes." 8 May
2007.The New York Times.5 Dec. 2008
<http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/08/science/earth/08carb.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1>.
"Washington's Green Economy." CLimate Change. Department of Ecology, State of
Washington. 5 Dec. 2008 <http://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/greeneconomy.htm>.
"Welcome to the Big Sky Carbon Sequestration Partnership Website." Welcome to the Big
Sky Carbon Sequestration Partnership. 5 Dec. 2008 <http://www.bigskyco2.org/>.
Davis, Kyle. "Pacificorp Global Climate Change Action Plan." Pacificorp. 9 Nov. 2007
<http://www.pacificorp.com/File/File77871.pdf>.
37
The Role of Local Government in Addressing Climate Change
Many local governments around the country are taking action to prepare their communities
for the effects of global climate change (1)(2)(3). The science behind Climate Change is
accurate and comprehensive; scientists across the board agree that human greenhouse gas
emissions contribute significantly to climate change (4). Local governments and citizens are
working together to prepare their communities for the changes that a worldwide warming
trend could precipitate. Part of the effort concerns anticipating the ways in which global
climate change could exacerbate existing problems. This interdisciplinary effort requires
comprehensive and calculated action: it is not a “climb that mountain when we get there”
type of scenario. If, when we get halfway up the mountain, we find our food and water
supplies compromised and the springsource of our economic strength being siphoned away
by forces beyond our control, our community will be transformed in difficult and
unpredictable ways.
In Walla Walla, we can expect a gradual annual increase in average temperature, and a
widening of the gap between high and low precipitation. To repeat what this report has
already established: This means a slow rise in average temperature though it may stay just
as cold during the winter; it also means that we will receive less precipitation in the dry
season, more in the wet season, and possibly less in between. A ‘conflict constellation’ is a
network of real problems that by their very nature build on one another (5). We can expect
exactly these kinds of problems to become more common, greater in scope, and greater in
intensity with climate change.
To take the three above principles out of the abstract and discuss hypothetical effects on
the ground that is specific to our community, imagine the following scenario or chain of
events. It is the dry season in Eastern Washington. There is less water available than usual
due to a higher-than-average midsummer temperature. This is causing farmers to suffer
from lost irrigation waters. Soon, a fire starts and grows to an unmanageable size in the
protected Mill Creek Watershed, cutting off the main city water supply indefinitely (6). This
type of fire is increasingly likely, as even slight increases in temperature are expected to
increase the frequency of high-fire-risk days in Walla Walla County (7). Next, this fire not
only sends ash into the protected Mill Creek, but it renders the forest slopes more
vulnerable to erosion without vegetative anchor, and a persistent spell of summer wind adds
large amounts of ash and eroded debris to the watershed. This large sediment load reduces
dissolved oxygen that fish need to live, at the same time clogging the gills of fish and
reducing their ability to breathe (8). The sediment also increases the concentration of
nutrients within the system, which, aided by the increased light after forest cover burned
away, causes an algal bloom (8). Coupled with generally higher temperatures and added
heat left by the fire, the debris cause fish and other biotic die-offs in the watershed,
drastically spiking the amount of organic materials in the water (8)(9). These organic
materials now act as disease vectors that were dormant before temperature-rise activated
this chain of events around the stream system.
This scenario shows how a rise in temperature, and the accompanying polarization of wet
and dry season, can fan the flames of one problem and create a wide range of new sparks:
An economic cost to already cash-strapped farmers; an economic cost to small businesses if
valuable summer tourist months are hit with smoke-clogged skies and mucky water. Also,
an ecosystem health threat; a public health and community well-being hazard if asthma and
disease rates worsen and people exposed to the water become sick. More: a tax on the
already overtaxed deep-basalt aquifer if we resort to wells for drinking water; an added cost
of living if we import water; even a basic survival problem for those who have no well nor
the money to buy bottled drinking water.
38
This hypothetical knot of problems is a ‘conflict constellation'—a network of real problems
that by their very nature are interrelated because they stem from a similar source, the
weather in Walla Walla. But isn’t it unlikely that this will ever actually happen, this
exaggerated worst of worst-case scenarios? Unfortunately, what we know about climate
change demands that we answer ‘NO.’ The increased likelihood, frequency, intensity, and
most of all, unpredictability of weather events caused by climate change means that worst
case scenarios will be amplified—exaggerated, like this scenario. The nature of climate
change demands that we expect challenges that we cannot imagine until they unfold.
Just a year ago, few Americans were actively concerned about the economy. We now have
some experience with human-caused crises. We know they operate on the domino effect.
That is, we know they happen at a rate and scale that is difficult to predict, and we know
that they play out in complex ways that embroil actors that we could not have expected
before the fact. We also know that it is harder for government to act effectively when
multiple sectors of society are all demanding immediate and sweeping solutions to a
problem of this scope. Wouldn’t it have been nice if a group of willing people had sat down
and laid out, step by step in an organized fashion, a best course of action if the financial
markets collapsed, instead of slapping together an expensive financial aid package in a
week’s time? Note that the financial markets in which the economic crisis played out are not
anywhere near as complex and all encompassing as the natural systems in which the
climate crisis will unfold.
Global climate change not only demands that we prepare for worst-case scenarios; it also
demands that we redefine what ‘worst case scenario’ means to us. This process will take
some imagination and a better-safe-than-sorry attitude, in addition to a comprehensive
knowledge of the facts. Are we flexible enough as a city government or as a community to
meet a challenge of this nature? With the dry-season fire example, we can see how a
conflict constellation is not your everyday problem, but a complex super-problem beyond
the scope and intensity of issues our city government may be capable of effectively
addressing without preparation. What are the biggest threats and priorities in Walla Walla in
light of climate change? What are the opportunities? How will we take advantage of federal
incentives for renewable energy projects, green building, or land-use change? What does an
increasing demand for renewable energy nationwide mean for Walla Walla? What aspects of
everyday life and long-term planning will have to change with climate change in mind? What
can we do to make sure our institutions and our outlook are more adaptable, and in so
doing prepare for what we cannot predict?
For the above reasons, this study finds that scientific evidence alone does not sufficiently
show the enormity of what global climate change means to our community. We not only
think it makes common sense for Walla Walla to prepare for the effects of climate change,
but we think the city must provide channels through which citizens can lead that effort. To
fulfill its obligation to assure community stability and wellbeing over time, the city council
should act strongly, and vote to establish a permanent Sustainability Task Force. A variety
of resources already are available for communities to formulate their own plans; the city of
Spokane provides a useful model for us to learn from. However, members of our own
community are our most valuable resource. A group of able individuals biting at the bit to
dedicate large portions of their time to city posterity is a valuable and scarce civic
resource—a resource that may not be so readily available when the climate crisis demands
all of our attention.
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Sources:
1) “The City of Spokane: Official Website.” City of Spokane. Fall 2008
<http://www.greenspokane.org/>.
2) By Gilman, Robert (Mayor Pro-Tem, City of Langley). “Langley’s Climate Change Effort:
Small Town, Big Ideas On Climate Protection.” About Growth: A Quarterly Publication
About Growth Management. Washington State CTED, Spring 2008. Accessed Fall 2008.
3) “Homepage: ICLEI.” ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability. Fall 2008
<http://www.iclei.org/>.
4) See sources for “Cimate Change: An Overview” section.
5) “Climate Change as a Security Threat, 5-7 November 2008.” ICLEI-Local Governments
for Sustainability. Fall 2008
<http://www.iclei.org/index.php?id=1504&tx_ttnews[backPid]=983&tx_ttnews[tt_news
]=3244&cHash=b36ba20864>.
6) Waterhsed recovery from fire is estimated from 6 months to 6 years, see “Water
Availability and Natural Hazards” section.
7) See “Climate Change and Biodiversity” section, subsection “Forest Fires.”
8) EPA Victoria. “THE HEALTH OF STREAMS IN NORTH-EASTERN VICTORIA IN THE THREE
YEARS FOLLOWING THE 2003 BUSHFIRES.” Publication 1061, October 2006.
9) Baker, Malchus and Ffolliott, Peter. “Riparian Areas of the Southwestern United States:
Hydrology, Ecology, and Management.” Lewis Publishers, no date.
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