Download Climate Change in the South Caucasus

Climate Change
in the South Caucasus
A Visual Synthesis
Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Based on official country information from the communications to the UNFCCC, scientific papers and news reports.
This is a Zoï Environment Network publication produced in close cooperation with the ENVSEC Initiative and the Governments of Armenia, Azerbaijan
and Georgia.­Valuable inputs were received from the Regional Climate Change Impact Study for the Caucasus Region facilitated by the UNDP. OSCE has
provided support­ for printing and dissemination. Additional financial support was received from UNEP Vienna — Environmental Reference Centre of the
Mountain Partnership.
Printed on 100% recycled paper.
© Zoï Environment Network 2011
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2
Concept
Zurab Jincharadze, Otto Simonett
Collages
Nina Joerchjan
Maps and Graphics
Manana Kurtubadze
Text and interviews
Zurab Jincharadze
Design and Layout
Manana Kurtubadze, Maria Libert
Contributors and Interviewees
Ramaz Chitanava, Nickolai Denisov, Harald Egerer, Farda Imanov,
­Medea Inashvili, Alex Kirby, Nato Kutaladze, Hamlet Melkonyan,
­Maharram Mehtiyev, Lesya Nikolayeva, Viktor Novikov, Marina Pandoeva,
Marina Shvangiradze, Vahagn Tonoyan, Emil Tsereteli, Asif Verdiyev, Benjamin­
Zakaryan.
Contents
6
The South Caucasus
at a Glance
18
Climate Change Trends and
Scenarious in the Region
30
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
and Climate Change Mitigation
40
Impacts of Climate Change
and Adaptation Measures
3
Foreword
Climate Change in the Caucasus
— A my th no longer
In Greek mythology the Caucasus is known as the place
where Prometheus was chained to the mountain as punishment for stealing fire from Zeus and giving it to mortals. His
liver is eaten by an eagle during the day, only to regenerate
at night, until he is freed by Heracles who kills the eagle.
In the Book of Genesis, and the Koran, Mount Ararat
— close to the Caucasus — is the place where Noah’s ark
is stranded, saving Noah himself, his family and the world’s
animals from the great floods.
So much for mythology and religion, but strangely
enough, both narratives can be linked to climate change:
on the one hand Prometheus bringing fire to mankind,
starting a long chain of burning and releasing CO₂ to the
atmosphere, eventually contributing to climate change; on
the other hand Noah escaping the floods — one of the potential impacts of climate change.
As a stark contrast to its rich cultural diversity and beautiful environment, in the modern day Caucasus there are
several unresolved — frozen — conflicts hampering the
“normal” economic development of the region since the
breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. Predicted impacts of
climate change will not make the region more secure.
With this publication, Zoï Environment Network aims to
communicate the known facts of climate change in a well
illustrated, easily understandable manner, accessible to
everyone. For this we could rely on the rich Caucasian tradition of geographic analysis, map making and visual arts.
Unfortunately, the format did not allow the use of other Caucasian specialities, such as music, film, cuisine or toasts,
it will be up to the reader to accompany his or her lecture
with some of this. We do however want to make the point
that also in the Caucasus, climate change is no more myth.
Otto Simonett
Director, Zoï Environment Network
Geneva, January 2012
4
Atlas and Prometheus. Laconian Kylix, 6th c. BCE. Vatican Museums
Climate Change in the South Caucasus: key findings, trends and projections
INDICATORS
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Air temperature (last half century)
Precipitation and snow (last half century)
Desertification
Extreme weather events and climate-related hazards
(1990–2009)
Melting ice (last half century)
Water resources availability in the future (2050–2100)
Health
Infectious and vector-borne diseases
Greenhouse gas emissions 1990–2005
Greenhouse gas emissions 2000–2005
Policy instruments, actions and awareness
Climate observation and weather services
(1990–2009)
increase, enchancement
decrease, reduction
increase in some areas
Sources: Second National Communications of
Armenia, 2010; Azerbaijan, 2010; Georgia, 2009.
5
Alazani valley from Sighnaghi, GEORGIA
The South Caucasus
at a Glance
G
r
Ter
ek
Caspian
e
Elbrus
5 642
a
t
Abkhazia
Sukhumi
uri
ng
I
Poti
Kutaisi
i
L
Batumi
Adjara
lak
Rioni
Rion
e
R U S S I A N
F E D E R AT I O N
a
u
s
Al
az
Kur
a
Gori
Akhaltsikhe
Telavi
Tbilisi
e
c
an
i
s
Kur
r
a
d
be
Sheki
s
Alaverdi De
Gyumri
Vanadzor
r
m
e
n
i
a
A
Lake
Sevan
u
Armavir
n
n
a
A
4 090
Aragats
Yerevan
Nagorno
Karabakh
i
g
h
l
a
n
d
Lachin
s
H
Ararat
5 165
a
Ara
s
c
metres
T U R K E Y
A Z
Nakhchivan
0
-500
-1,000
-1,500
Glaciers
Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Mingechevir
reserv.
Mingechevir
Ganja
A R M E N I A
Kars
C
ta
u n khi)
o
o
c M
or
Ponti
Ch
(
h
Ç oru
a
Iori
Rustavi
in
8
C
Tskhinvali
Kura
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
200
0
Depression
Su
5 033
Kazbek
G E O R G I A
s
Makhac
Vladikavkaz
da
BLACK
SEA
Grozny
Magas
Shkhara
5 068
Colchis
Plain
Depression
Nalchik
Hraz
Sochi
Nakhchivan
Goris
u
s
Kapan
Meghri
Lake Van
Van
Khankendi
(Stepanakert)
I R A N
as
Ar
ian
ssion
GENER AL OVERVIEW
Makhachkala
The South Caucasus is located in the south-eastern part of Europe,
between the Black and Caspian Seas. The furthest western and eastern boundaries of the region lie between 40°01’ and 50°25’ E, while
the northern and southern ones are between 43°35’ and 38°23’ N. The
region is bordered by Turkey and the Islamic Republic of Iran in the
South and by the Russian Federation in the North. The three South
Caucasian republics — Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia — gained
independence after the fall of the former Soviet Union in 1991. Shortly
after independence the region underwent devastating ethnic and civil
wars, the consequences of which are still to be overcome.
CASPIAN
SEA
I A N
AT I O N
s
ur
m
u
Sa
UKRAINE
KAZAKHSTAN
s
Sheki
AZOV
SEA
Mingechevir
reserv.
echevir
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Sumgayit
NORTH CAUCASUS
Absheron
A Z E R B A I J A N
Baku
BLACK
SEA
CASPIAN
SEA
Kur
GEORGIA
SOUTH
CAUCASUS
ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN
a
nkendi
nakert)
Kura-Aras
Depression
TURKEY
AZ
Neftchala
as
Ar
Ta
l
ys
IRAN
Lankaran
h
CYPRUS
0
100 km
LEBANON
SYRIA
IRAQ
0
150 km
The South Caucasus at a Glance
9
Average Annual Temperatures in the South Caucasus
Nalchik
Abkhazia
Çor
C
uh (
r
ho
hi)
ok
Temperature (°C)
Adjara
Al
Gori
Akhaltsikhe
Kur
Telavi
a
Tbilisi
Kur
a
Alaverdi De
Gyumri Vanadzor
Kars
Armavir
Aras
16.0°
13.0°
10.0°
7.0°
5.0°
1.5°
-1.0°
Io
ri
Sheki
Mingechevir
reserv.
AZERBAIJAN
NagornoKarabakh
Yerevan
Lachin
Goris
Nakhchivan
Source: State Hydro-meteorological Services of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia;
World Trade Press, 2007.
Sumgayit
Mingechevir
Lake
Sevan
AZ
Nakhchivan
Lake
Van
i
Ganja
ARMENIA
an
SEA
an
Rustavi
d
be
Kura
TURKEY
az
ur
GEORGIA
CASPIAN
Sa
m
i
RUSSIAN
F E D E R AT I O N
Tskhinvali
d
Batumi
S
Kutaisi
Rion
k
ula
Rioni
Hraz
Poti
SEA
Makhachkala
Vladikavkaz
I
BLACK
Grozny
Magas
k
n g uri
Sukhumi
Ter
e
Kapan
Meghri
IRAN
Baku
Kur
a
Khankendi
(Stepanakert)
as
Neftchala
Ar
0
100 km
Geography and Climate
Almost every climatic zone is represented in the South
Caucasus except for savannas and tropical forests. To the
North, the Great Caucasus range protects the region from
the direct penetration of cold air. The circulation of these
air masses has mainly determined the precipitation regime
all over the region.
Precipitation decreases from west to east and mountains
generally receive higher amounts than low-lying areas. The
10 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
absolute maximum annual rainfall is 4,100 mm in southwest Georgia (Adjara), whilst the rainfall in southern Georgia, Armenia and western Azerbaijan varies between 300
and 800 mm per year. Temperature generally decreases
as elevation rises. The highlands of the Lesser Caucasus
mountains in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are marked
by sharp temperature contrasts between summer and winter months due to a more continental climate.
Average Annual Precipitation in the South Caucasus
Nalchik
Abkhazia
Poti
SEA
Batumi
i
S
Tskhinvali
GEORGIA
Adjara
RUSSIAN
F E D E R AT I O N
Al
Gori
Akhaltsikhe
az
Kur
Telavi
a
Tbilisi
Rustavi
Kur
Kura
hi)
ok
TURKEY
Precipitation
2,000 mm
1,600 mm
800 mm
600 mm
400 mm
200 mm
less than 200 mm
Kars
Armavir
Aras
ri
Sheki
Ganja
Mingechevir
reserv.
AZERBAIJAN
NagornoKarabakh
Yerevan
Lachin
Goris
Nakhchivan
The average annual temperature in Armenia is 5.5°C. The
highest annual average temperature is 12–14°C. At altitudes above 2,500 m the average annual temperatures are
below zero. The summer is temperate; in July the average
temperature is about 16.7°C, and in Ararat valley it varies
between 24–26°C.
The average annual temperature at the Black Sea shore
is 14–15°C, with extremes ranging from +45°C to -15°C.
Sumgayit
Mingechevir
Lake
Sevan
Source: State Hydro-meteorological Services of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia;
Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010.
ur
m
Sa
Io
AZ
Nakhchivan
Lake
Van
SEA
i
ARMENIA
an
CASPIAN
an
Alaverdi Deb
Gyumri Vanadzor
d
or
a
ed
Hraz
Çor
Ch
uh (
k
ula
Rioni
Kutaisi
Rion
Makhachkala
Vladikavkaz
I
BLACK
Grozny
Magas
k
n g uri
Sukhumi
Ter
e
Kapan
Meghri
IRAN
Baku
Kur
a
Khankendi
(Stepanakert)
as
Neftchala
Ar
0
100 km
The climate in the plains of East Georgia and most of Azerbaijan is dry : in the lowlands, it is dry subtropical, and in
mountainous areas alpine. The average annual temperature varies from 11 to 13°C in the plains, from 2 to 7°C in the
mountains, and around 0°C in alpine zones. Depending on
the altitude and remoteness from the Caspian Sea, climatic
types in Azerbaijan vary from arid subtropical in the lowlands to temperate and cold in the high mountains.
The South Caucasus at a Glance 11
Tere
k
Sochi
Nalchik
Grozny
Abkhazia
Magas
Sukhumi
Makh
Vladikavkaz
lak
ng
uri
Su
Rioni
BLACK
SEA
Rion
i
Poti
Kutaisi
Te r e
k
I
G E O RGIA
Gori
Batumi
Adjara
RUSSIAN
Tskhinvali
Al
Kur
a
Telavi
Tbilisi
Akhaltsikhe
Rustavi
Kura
T U R K E Y
Alaverdi
Gyumri
F EDERATIO N
az
an
i
Iori
ed
a
Ganja
Vanadzor
da
Subtropical forests
Temperate forests
Mingechevir
reserv.
Mingechevir
ARMENIA
Armavir
Hraz
Floodplains and wetlands
Sheki
Kur
b
De
n
Lake
Sevan
Yerevan
Coniferous forests
NagornoKarabakh
Steppes
Lachin
Arid deserts and semi-deserts
Sub-alpine and alpine meadows
Glaciers
Sources: Caucasus ecoregion — environment and human development issues,
UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2008;
CEO-Caucasus-2002;
Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010.
12 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
AZ
Nakhchivan
Nakhchivan
Goris
Kapan
Khankendi
(Stepanakert)
as
Ar
Meghri
IRA
Ecosystems
Makhachkala
A N
CASPIAN
SEA
T IO N
Alazani River in the border of Georgia and Azerbaijan
Ecosystems
r
The complex topography and diverse vegetation cover of the Caucasus is a main reason for an unusually large number of climatic zones
and natural ecosystems on a relatively small piece of land like South
Caucasus. The region ranges from the subtropical rainy type of forest
of the south-east Black Sea coast to the high peaks of the Greater
Caucasus, with their glaciers and snow caps, to the steppes and
semi-deserts of the lowland east.
mu
Sa
heki
ngechevir
reserv.
evir
Sumgayit
A ZERBAIJAN
Baku
Kur
a
endi
nakert)
as
Neftchala
Ar
IR A N
0
100 km
Debed river at Northern Armenia
The South Caucasus at a Glance 13
Population dynamics in 1989–2010
Million
10
Azerbaijan
9
8
7
6
Georgia
5
4
3
Armenia
2
1
0
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Sources: Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010; World Bank statistics.
Population by age groups in 2010
10%
72%
7%
71%
14%
69%
18%
23%
17%
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
65 and over
15–64
0–14
Main figures
Armenia: Total Population 3.249 millions (2010).
Total­ area 29,743 km². Population density 108.4
per km². Life expectancy 74 years. Net population
­migration -1.7 per 1,000 population.
Azerbaijan: Total Population 8.997 millions (2010).
Total area 86,600 km². Population density 105.8
per km². Life expectancy 70 years. Net population
migration -1.4 per 1,000 population.
Georgia: Total Population 4.436 millions (2010).
Total area 69,700 km². Population density 68.1 per
km². Life expectancy 72 years. Net population migration -18.1 per 1,000 population.
Urban and rural population in 2010
10%
36%
46%
47%
Rural
43%
64%
54%
53%
Urban
57%
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
70%
19%
Total
Sources: Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010.
14 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Total
Population in the South Caucasus
Terek
Abkhazia
n g uri
I
Zugdidi
Poti
Batumi
Çoru h
(C
ho
Rion
i
GEORGIA
ra
Adjara
i)
kh
ro
Ku
Al
Gori
Akhaltsikhe
az
Telavi
Tbilisi
Rustavi
Kur
a
d
i
Hrazdan
Ara
1 dot = 500 inhabitants
2 millions
TURKEY
1 million
Lake
Sevan
Yerevan
ri
Sheki
Ganja
Mingechevir
reserv.
Sumgayit
Mingechevir
AZERBAIJAN
Nagorno
Karabakh
Lachin Khankendi
(Stepanakert)
Goris
AZ
Nakhchivan
Kapan
as
Ar
Nakhchivan
Meghri
Lake Van
Sources: CEO-Caucasus 2002; Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010.
Shirvan
Baku
Kura
Urban population, 2009
an
Samur
Io
ARMENIA
Vagharshapat
s
CASPIAN
SEA
an
Alaverdi Debe
Gyumri Vanadzor
Kura
Rural population, 2002
300,000
100,000–200,000
50,000–100,000
RUSSIAN
F E D E R AT I O N
Tskhinvali
Kutaisi
d
BLACK
SEA
lak
Su
Rioni
Hraz
Sukhumi
Neftchala
IRAN
0
100 km
Little Cavemen from Gobustan, AZERBAIJAN
The South Caucasus at a Glance 15
GDP in 1990–2010
Million USD
Azerbaijan
50
GDP per capita in 1990–2010
USD
Azerbaijan
6,000
40
5,000
30
4,000
Armenia
3,000
20
Georgia
10
Armenia
0
2,000
Georgia
GDP by sectors in 2010
1,000
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Armenia
Source: World Bank statistics.
Source: UN statistics.
GDP by sectors in 2010
Services
31%
Economic Overview
Armenia
Industry
47%
Following the disintegration of the former Soviet Union
1990s meant the economies started to revive and then grow
the economies of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia exrapidly. In Armenia and Azerbaijan,
Agriculturethey grew at nearly­9%
Serviceseconomic declines at the start of the
22% countries growth rates
perienced dramatic
a
year
from
1997
to
2002.
In these
GDP by sectors in 2010
Industry
31%
1990s. For example in Armenia,
between
1990
and
1993,
were
even
higher
in
2003
and
2004
(see table 16). In Geor47%
the average annual decrease in GDP was about 18%; In
gia economic
growth
has
been
unstable
in
recent years,
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Agriculture
Azerbaijan GDP fell
by
an
annual
average
of
about
13%,
varying
between
about
1.8%
in
2000,
10.6%
in 1997, and
22%
while in Georgia, it declined by 70–75% from 1991 to 1994.
6.2% in 2004. The real growth of GDP of Georgia in 2010
Services
of economic reforms and
the
However, the launching Azerbaijan
amounted to 6.4%.
Services
Industry
Industry
33%
achievement of political stability by the second half of31%
the
61%
47%
Services
33%
Industry
61%
GDP by sectors
in 2010
Agriculture
6%
Services
31%
Georgia
Industry
Industry
47%
27%
Agriculture
11%
Source: www.indexmundi.com
Services
Industry
Services
31%
Industry
47%
33%
Agriculture
22%
Agriculture
6%
Industry
61%
Services
33%
Services
62%
Azerbaijan
Source: www.indexmundi.com
Industry
61%
Industry
27%
AgricultureServices
6%
62%
Georgia
Industry
27%
61%
Georgia
Azerbaijan
33% in the South Caucasus
16 Climate Change
Agriculture
6%
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Services
Agriculture
62%
22%
Services
Agriculture
GDP by 22%
sectors in 2010
Agriculture
11%
Agriculture
11%
Armenia
Land use in 2009
Georgia
Azerbaijan
12%
13%
4%
3%
Agricultural land
32%
13%
55%
43%
Forest
Water
71%
1%
12%
41%
Other
Sources: Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010.
The Peace Bridge, Tbilisi, GEORGIA
The South Caucasus at a Glance 17
Ararat Valley, ARMENIA
Climate Change Trends
and Scenarios in the Region
Changes of air temperature in the South Caucasus
1935–2008 for Armenia, 1936–2005 for Georgia, 1960–2005 for Azerbaijan
Changes of annual air temperature
BLACK
SEA
RUSSIAN
FEDERATION
GEORGIA
TURKEY
CASPIAN
SEA
ARMENIA
(C°)
1
AZERBAIJAN
0.5
AZ
0
IRAN
Changes of summer air temperature
BLACK
SEA
RUSSIAN
FEDERATION
GEORGIA
CASPIAN
SEA
(C°)
1.5
TURKEY
ARMENIA
1
AZERBAIJAN
0.5
AZ
0
IRAN
Changes of winter air temperature
BLACK
SEA
RUSSIAN
FEDERATION
GEORGIA
CASPIAN
SEA
(C°)
1
TURKEY
ARMENIA
AZERBAIJAN
0.5
0
AZ
IRAN
-0.5
Sources: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011.
20 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Regional Climate Change Trends
To study global warming scenarios and risks associated with climate change trends on a regional level
in the South Caucasus, the Environment and Security (ENVSEC) Initiative launched a project on Climate
Change Impact for the South Caucasus implemented
by UNDP. The project brought together leading national experts engaged in the preparation of the second national communications of Armenia, Azerbaijan
and Georgia under the UNFCCC.
Precipitation and temperature data from the key
meteorological stations of the three South Caucasus
countries were examined in the following sequence :
Armenia — 32 stations for 1935–2008; Georgia — 21
stations for 1936–2005; Azerbaijan — 14 stations for
1960–2005. Temperature changes were assessed for
the summer, winter and the whole year.
During the period from 1935 to 2009 in Armenia the
annual average temperature increased by 0.85ºC, and
in Azerbaijan by 0.5 to 0.6ºC since the 1880s, with the
highest registered temperatures during the last 10
years. In Georgia from 1906 to 1995 the mean annual
air temperature has increased by 0.1 to 0.5ºC in the
eastern part of the country, whilst it has decreased
by 0.1 to 0.3ºC in the west (Georgia’s Initial National
Communication, 1999). However, if calculating for the
last 50 years the data shows a different trend: during the 1957 to 2006 the mean annual temperatures
increased by 0.2ºC in the western part and by 0.3ºC in
the eastern Georgia (Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009).
Regional differences are also reported from Azerbaijan, with the highest temperature increase in the
Greater Caucasus and Kura‐Aras lowlands, and from
Armenia, with the warmest regions in the Ararat lowlands and in the zone from the border of Georgia to
Lake Sevan.
Relative
humidity
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
Values of heat Index (human thermal comfort)
26°
27°
28°
29°
30°
31°
32°
33°
34°
35°
36°
37°
38°
39°
28.0
27.9
27.7
27.5
27.3
27.1
26.9
26.7
26.6
26.4
26.3
26.0
25.8
30.7
30.2
29.7
29.3
28.9
28.5
28.1
27.7
27.4
27.1
26.9
26.6
26.4
33.8
32.9
32.1
31.4
30.7
30.0
29.5
28.9
28.5
28.0
27.7
27.4
27.1
37.1
35.9
34.7
33.7
32.7
31.8
31.0
30.3
29.7
29.1
28.6
28.2
27.9
40.7
39.1
37.7
36.3
35.0
33.8
32.8
31.9
31.1
30.3
29.7
29.2
28.8
44.7
42.7
40.9
39.2
37.6
38.7
34.9
33.7
32.6
31.7
30.9
30.3
29.7
48.9
46.6
44.4
42.3
40.4
38.7
37.1
35.6
34.4
33.3
32.3
31.5
30.8
53.5
50.8
48.1
45.7
43.5
41.4
39.5
37.8
36.3
34.9
33.8
32.8
32.0
58.5
55.2
52.2
49.4
46.8
44.4
42.2
40.2
38.4
36.8
35.4
34.3
33.3
63.7
60.0
56.5
53.3
50.3
47.6
45.1
42.8
40.7
38.8
37.2
35.8
34.7
63.7
65.1
61.2
57.5
54.2
51.0
48.1
45.5
43.1
41.0
39.1
37.5
36.2
75.1
70.4
66.1
62.0
58.2
54.7
51.4
48.5
45.8
43.4
41.2
39.3
37.8
81.2
76.1
71.3
66.8
62.5
58.6
55.0
51.6
48.6
45.9
43.4
41.3
39.4
87.7
82.1
76.8
71.8
67.1
62.7
58.7
55.0
51.6
48.5
45.8
43.3
41.2
Temperature (C°)
40°
41°
94.5
88.3
82.5
77.0
71.9
67.1
62.6
58.5
54.8
51.3
48.3
45.5
43.1
101.6
94.9
88.6
82.6
77.0
71.7
66.8
62.3
58.1
54.3
20.9
47.8
45.1
Note: Exposure to full sunchine can increase heat index values by up to 10°C
Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011.
Heat Waves The UNDP/ENVSEC regional climate
study group constructed a regional model on the urban
heat wave trends for some South Caucasian cities, including Tbilisi, Baku and Vanadzor. The study assessed one of
the important indicators of climate change — the Heat Index
that is a combination of air temperature and relative humidity during the warm periods of a year.
The table above demonstrates how Heat Indexes are
“translated” to an actual feeling of human comfort when the
temperatures (C°) are combined with the relative humidity
(%). The team explored daily meteorological data for warm
periods (May to September) of the 1955–1970 and 1990–
2007­ time sequences, using PRECIS statistical analysis,
and generated a forecast for 2020–2049. The calculation
was based on the Global Climate Model — ECHAM. Analysis of the calculation and forecast models show that four
out of six classes of Heat Indexes have risen during the last
15–20 years (1990–2007) and are expected to increase dramatically for one of three critical classes (orange/hot class
with extreme warning of risk) during the coming decades.­
Comparison of “dangerous” days in Vanadzor, Tbilisi and Baku in the past and future
Vanadzor
1955–1970 1990–2007 2020–2049
Tbilisi
1955–1970 1990–2007 2020–2049
Baku
1955–1970 1990–2007 2020–2049
Normal
1,283
773
868
1,338
1,349
1,525
508
872
1,037
Warm
682
1,551
2,558
796
843
1,161
463
607
1,063
Very warm
482
736
745
310
545
1,527
331
749
1,858
Hot
1
0
305
4
17
287
13
63
539
Very hot
0
0
113
0
0
0
0
0
3
Extremly hot
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Number of dangerous days
483
736
1,164
314
562
1,814
344
812
2,400
Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011.
Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 21
Forecasted changes of annual air temperature
in the South Caucasus
(by HadCM3 modeling of MAGICC/SCENGEN)
Changes in 2011–2040
BLACK
SEA
RUSSIAN
FEDERATION
GEORGIA
TURKEY
CASPIAN
SEA
ARMENIA
AZERBAIJAN
(C°)
AZ
1.5
IRAN
Changes in 2041–2070
BLACK
SEA
RUSSIAN
FEDERATION
GEORGIA
TURKEY
CASPIAN
SEA
ARMENIA
(C°)
AZERBAIJAN
3
AZ
2.5
IRAN
Changes in 2071–2100
BLACK
SEA
RUSSIAN
FEDERATION
GEORGIA
TURKEY
CASPIAN
SEA
(C°)
ARMENIA
AZERBAIJAN
5
4
AZ
IRAN
3.5
Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011
22 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
GCM PRECIS Models
The analysis of climate change scenarios developed
for all three South Caucasus countries using PRECIS
outputs and the MAGICC/SCENGEN modelling tool revealed that changes of temperature by the end of the
century will vary in the range of 3–6°C.
According to the forecast made by the most appropriate models for the years 2070–2100 the highest increment in temperature, 7.7°C, should be anticipated
in West Georgia in the summer. The lowest increment,
for the same time period, 2.1°C, is expected in Armenia
during the winter.
The expected increase in mean annual temperature
is similar for Armenia and Georgia and is likely to be
about 5°C. In Azerbaijan the expected increase is lower,
around 3.6°C.
Forecasted changes of annual precipitation
in the South Caucasus
(by HadCM3 modeling of MAGICC/SCENGEN)
Changes in 2011–2040
BLACK
SEA
RUSSIAN
FEDERATION
GEORGIA
TURKEY
CASPIAN
SEA
ARMENIA
AZERBAIJAN
5%
0%
AZ
-5%
IRAN
Changes in 2041–2070
BLACK
SEA
RUSSIAN
FEDERATION
GEORGIA
TURKEY
CASPIAN
SEA
ARMENIA
AZERBAIJAN
0%
-5%
AZ
-10%
IRAN
Changes in 2071–2100
According to the results shown by the HadCM3 climate
modelling tool (which is a modification of HAD300 and
is considered as best suited model to the Caucasus region) the decrease in annual precipitation in the period
2070–2100 will be around 15% for Azerbaijan and Georgia, rising to 24% for Armenia.
The highest decrease in precipitation is forecast for
Georgia — 80.8% in summer and 68% in spring. The
lowest decrease is expected in Azerbaijan, 11% in summer. The highest increase ( 22%) is likely also to be in
Azerbaijan in the winter.
BLACK
SEA
RUSSIAN
FEDERATION
GEORGIA
TURKEY
ARMENIA
AZERBAIJAN
CASPIAN
SEA
-5%
-10%
-15%
AZ
IRAN
-20%
Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011
Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 23
Changes in average annual Temperature and
Precipitation in Armenia, 1940–2008 compared
to 1961–1990
Temperature change (C°)
1.0
0.5
0
-0.5
-1.0
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1980
1990
2000
Precipitation change (mm)
100
50
0
Climate Change Trends in Armenia
As a mountainous country with an arid climate, Armenia
is highly vulnerable to global climate change. It’s Second
National Communication to the UNFCCC estimated deviations of annual air temperature and precipitation recorded
in 1940–2008 from the average of the period of 1961–1990.
According to the study average annual temperatures have
increased by 0.85°C, while annual precipitation decreased
by 6% during the last 80 years.
However, the changes show different trends by regions
and seasons. In general, the average air temperature has
increased by 10°C in summer months, while it stayed stable in winter months. During the last 15 years summers
were extremely hot, especially in 1998, 2000 and 2006.
The 2006 is considered the hottest recorded in Armenia
between 1929 and 2008.
The spatial distribution of annual precipitation changes in
Armenia is quite irregular; north‐eastern and central (­Ararat
valley) regions of the country have become more arid, while
the southern and north‐western parts and the Lake Sevan
basin have had a significant increase in precipitation in the
last 70 years.
-50
-100
1940
1950
1960
1970
Source: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010.
Changes in seasonal and annual Temperature and Precipitation in Armenia,
compared to 1961–1990
Precipitation change (%)
(C°) Temperature change
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Annual
2030
1
1
1
1
1
2070
3
3
3
3
2100
4
5
4
4
Sources: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010.
24 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Annual
2030
-3
-3
-7
1
-3
3
2070
-5
-5
-14
3
-6
4
2100
-7
-8
-19
3
-9
Changes in average annual Temperature in
Azerbaijan, 1991–2000 compared to 1961–1990
Ganja
C°
2
1
0
-1
-2
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
C°
2
1998
1999
2000
Nakhchivan
1
0
-1
-2
-3
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
C°
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Climate Change Trends
in a zerbaijan
Climate change trends have been visible in Azerbaijan­
for some decades too. The data from the National
­Hydrometeorology Department for 1991–2000 show an
increase in temperature by an average 0.41°C, which is
three times larger than the increase from 1961 to 1990.
As part of the National Communication study, the
average annual temperature and precipitation anomalies have been analysed in 7 regions of Azerbaijan for
the period 1991 to 2000. Compared to the 1961–90
level, temperature anomalies were particularly visible
in the Kura-Aras Lowland and ranged from -1.12°C to
+1.91°C.
The average annual precipitation was below the norm
in almost all regions. However, differences seemed
more significant in the Kura-Aras Lowland, where they
were 14.3% lower, in Ganja-Gazakh (17.7%), and in
­Nakhchivan (17.1%).
In summary, over the past 10 years the rainfall level in
Azerbaijan has fallen by 9.9%.
Absheron (Mashtaga)
2
1
0
-1
-2
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
C°
2
1998
1999
2000
Lankaran
1
0
-1
-2
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Sources: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010.
Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 25
Changes in annual Temperature and Precipitation in Georgia
1951–2002
(C°) Temperature change
Precipitation change (%)
120
7.5
7
110
6.5
100
6
90
5.5
1950
1960
1970
1980
2000 1950
1990
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Source: www.climatewizard.org
Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in Dedoplistskaro and Lentekhi
1990–2005 compared to 1955–1970
Precipitation change (%)
(C°) Temperature change
2
80
1.5
60
40
1
20
0.5
0
0
-20
-0.5
-1
-40
-60
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX X
XI
XII
Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009.
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
Dedoplistskaro
IX
X
XI
XII
Lentekhi
Climate Change Trends in Georgia
The latest studies of climate patterns in Georgia show
changes of major parameters — mean and extreme air
temperatures, relative humidity, moisture regimes, average
annual precipitation, etc. — which clearly indicate an overall trend of changing climate in the region. The UNFCCC
Second National Communication from Georgia identifies
three areas as most sensitive to climate change and therefore vulnerable to future extremes: the Black Sea coastal
26 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
zone, Lower Svaneti (Lentekhi district) and Dedoplistskaro
district of the Alazani river basin.
To investigate the climate change process in Georgia,
a survey of climate parameter trends was undertaken for
the whole territory and for the priority regions in particular. The trends of change in mean annual air temperatures,
mean annual precipitation totals and in the moistening regime were estimated between 1955–1970 and 1990–2005.
Precipitation at different altitudes of the
Alazani River catchment
Precipitation, mm
2,500
2,000
East part
1,500
1,000
West part
500
0
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Altitude, m
The statistical analysis revealed increasing trends in both
mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation total
from the first to the second period in all three priority regions, accompanied by a decrease in hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) in the Dedoplistskaro region, and its increase in
the other two priority regions. At the same time, the rates of
air temperature and precipitation change in priority regions
were assessed for four time intervals of different duration
(1906–2005; 1966–2005; 1985–2005 and 1995–2005). This
survey demonstrated an exceptionally steep rise in annual
air temperature in all three priority regions over the last 20
years.
Source: Calibration of hydrological model for the Alazani River in WEAP,
UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011.
Alazani River
Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 27
Expected annual changes in air temperatures and precipitation in the Khrami-Debed
and Alazani river basins 2071–2100 compared with 1961–1990
ra
The Khrami-Debed River Basin
Ku
Khram
i
5°
Tbilisi K
ur
a
13%
Tsalka
Eddikilisa
GEORGIA
i
hram
K
Ma s h
Increase
ir
Ta s h
Tashir
Stepanavan
4,8°
Temperature
C°
Precipitation
%
Decrease
16%
15%
d
16%
Ijevan
Dilijan
Vanadzor
Kvareli
5.8°
4.9°
5.3°
5%
8%
Telavi
5.2°
12%
5.3°
4.8°
Lagodekhi
Tbilisi
4%
Ku
ra
Zakatala
Gurjaani Tsnori
Ala
Temperature
C°
Precipitation
%
zan
i
i
Ior
4.8°
RUSSIAN
FEDERATION
11%
8%
Increase
Sheki
11%
Decrease
0
50 km
AZERBAIJAN
AZ
The Alazani River Basin
Akhmeta
ARMENIA
5°
GEORGIA
7%
Khrami-Debed
river basin
17%
ARMENIA
5.4°
Alazani river basin
GEORGIA
5°
be
10 km
0
BLACK
SEA
Red Bridge
Sadakhlo
De
5°
Gargar
Tumanian
Pa m bak
11%
Iori
Khra
mi
5°
er
Dmanisi
a
av
Akhalkalaki
Bolnisi
CASPIAN
SEA
AZERBAIJAN
28 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Mingechevir
reserv.
Changes in hydrological
balance in the Khrami-Debed
and Ala z ani river basins
The Khrami-Debed and Alazani river basins are two
important trans-boundary watersheds and major
sub-basins of the greater Kura river, sharing scarce
water resources between Armenia and Georgia
(Khrami-Debed) and Azerbaijan and Georgia (Alazani).
This area is prone to land degradation and desertification from the forecast extremes of climate
change, translating to economic losses and increased poverty for local population
The UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change
Impact for the South Caucasus evaluated the vulnerability of these river basins to climate change using PRECIS and WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning Model) tools to assess the changes expected
in mean annual temperatures, precipitation and annual stream flows compared with the baseline years
of 1961–1990.
The results of the study showed that immediate
adaptation measures have to be taken by all riparian countries to overcome the expected losses to
the economy of the region.
Changes in average annual stream flows at different points
of the Khrami-Debed and Alazani rivers, baseline 1961–1990
29%
Khram
i
1,593
The Khrami-Debed River Basin
50%
Tsalka
Yeddikilisa
GEORGIA
924
Yeddikilisa Tumanyan
480
Gargar
Akhalkalaki
Dmanisi
mi
Khra Bolnisi
Ma s h
Stepanavan
AZ
54%
Gargar
Tumanyan
Ijevan
Dilijan
Vanadzor
ARMENIA
The Alazani River Basin
Alazani
Akhmeta
Telavi
1,874
1,336
Tbilisi
Ku
ra
Shakriani
27%
Kvareli
38%
Gurjaani
Lagodekhi
Chiauri
Tsnori
i
Section
0
50 km
Confluence
Zemo
Kedi
Difference with
2070–2100 (%)
AZERBAIJAN
RUSSIAN
FEDERATION
Zakatala
26%
44%
Ior
Difference with
2020–2050 (%)
Agrichay
Sources: Assessment of vulnerability of water resources to climate
change, 2011; Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009.
d
be
De
GEORGIA
3,502
Zemo Kedi
29%
10 km
3,118
Chiauri
Red Bridge
Sadakhlo
31%
Pa m bak
Section
0
Average annual stream flow in the
Alazani River (mln m³) in 1966–1990
ir
Ta s h
Tashir
Shakriani
mi
54%
Difference with
2071–2100 (%)
29%
Khra
a
Sadakhlo Red Bridge
Difference with
2041–2070 (%)
51%
60%
40%
46%
28%
35%
i
336
ra
Alaza
n
267
Ku
er
ra
Ku
av
Average annual stream flow in the
Khrami-Debed River (mln m³) in 1966–1990
59%
Sheki
Ag
ric
ha
i
Mingechevir
reserv.
Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 29
Neft Dashlari (Oily Rocks), AZERBAIJAN
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
and Climate Change Mitigation
Greenhouse gas emissions in Armenia, 1990–2006*
By gases
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
25
25
24
24
N 2O
CH4
CO2
23
22
Waste
Agriculture
Induatrial Processes
Energy
23
22
21
21
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
1990
* Without LULUCF
Source: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010.
Greenhouse gas emissions change
from 1990 to 2006 in Armenia
1990 level
Waste
Agriculture
Induatrial Processes
Energy
-100%
By sectors
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
Source: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010.
32 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
0
+20%
+40%
1995
2000
2005
bed
De
Ku
Economic map of Armenia
ra
r
Io
i
NS
GEORGIA
Kura
Alaverdi
Iron
Cooper
Copper-molybdenum
Lead and zinc
Chromite
Aluminium
Mingechevir
reserv.
Vanadzor
Gyumri
Artik
Coal
BTC
, BS
Hrazdan
ARMENIA
Echmiadzin
Aras
Nagorno
Karabakh
Yerevan
Ararat
Metallurgy
Chemical industry
Engineering and metal-working
Production of building materials
Fruit-growering
Vineyard
Garden
NS
Armavir
AZERBAIJAN
Lake
Sevan
BTE
Arable land
Khankendi
(Stepanakert)
Sisian
Goris
TURKEY
Nakhchivan
(Azerbaijan)
IRAN
0
50 km
Aras hydroscheme
reserv.
Railway
Roads
Kapan
Meghri
Ara
s
Oil pipeline
Gas pipeline
BTC
BS
BTE
NS
— Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
— Baku-Supsa
— Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum
— North-South
Sources: SoE-Armenia, 2002, GRID-Arendal;
Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010;
Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010; GENI.
Armenia: GHG emissions by economic sectors
After the sharp economic decline of 1991–1994, Armenia
was able to achieve economic stability and growth. Economic growth in 1995–2000 amounted to an annual average of 5.4%, and in 2001–2006 the average growth rate was
12.4%. These shifts have positively influenced the decline
of Armenia’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Carbon dioxide emissions in 2006 declined by 81% compared with
the 1990 level, methane by 38% and nitrous oxide by 42%.
The energy sector accounted for the major part of the
total­ GHG emissions in 1990–2006. However, energy-­
related emissions fell in that period — from 91% in 1990 to
64.7% in 2006 (Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010).
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation 33
Greenhouse gas emissions in Azerbaijan, 1990–2005
By gases
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
80
By sectors
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
80
N 2O
CH4
CO2
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
Waste
Agriculture
Industrial processes
Energy
70
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
1990
1995
2005
2000
Source: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010.
Greenhouse gas emissions change
from 1990 to 2006 in Azerbaijan
1990 level
Waste
Energy
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
Source: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010.
Baku, AZERBAIJAN
34 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
0
NS
Al
Io
az
ri
Tbilisi
RUSSIAN
FEDERATION
an
i
Mingechevir
Mingechevir
reserv.
Tovuz
Ganja
Yevlakh
BTC
BTE
AZERBAIJAN
, BS
Sumgayit
Chemical industry
Engineering and metal-working
Production of building materials
Refinery
Natural gas
Dubendi
Baku
Gypsum
ra
Neft
Dashlari
Sangachal
Beylagan
Khankendi
(Stepanakert)
Salyan
Absheron
Aras
hydroscheme
reserv.
Nakhchivan
A
Iron
Copper
Molybdenum
Lead and zinc
Gold
Railway
Roads
Neftchala
Nakhchivan
ras
Cement
Aluminium
Shah-Deniz
Ali-Bairamli
Fishery
Oil
Chirag
Ku
NS
Nagorno
Karabakh
AZ
Metallurgy
Kurdamir
Lake
Sevan
ARMENIA
SEA
From
GEORGIA
Kazak
hstan
CASPIAN
Samur
Economic map of
Azerbaijan
Oil pipeline
Gas pipeline
Oil field
Gas field
IRAN
Vineyard
BTC — Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
BS — Baku-Supsa
Transport by tanker
Garden
BTE — Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum
NS — North-South
Arable land
Oil terminal
Cotton growing
Sources: Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010; GRID-Arendal, Caucasus ecoregion, 2008;
Azerbaijan international, 11.04.2003; European Tribune; StratOil; Londex Resources.
0
50 km
Sheep breeding
A zerbaijan: GHG emissions by economic sectors
The economic potential of Azerbaijan is mainly determined
by its oil and gas industry, the production of chemicals and
petrochemicals, metallurgy, mechanical engineering, textiles and the food industry.
The agricultural sector consists mostly of wheat, cotton,
wine, fruit, tobacco, tea, vegetables and cattle breeding.
The predominant part of Azerbaijan’s exports comes from
oil and oil products, electrical energy, cotton and silk fibres.
The level of GHG emissions in Azerbaijan in 2005
amounted to 70.6% of the 1990 base year level. The main
sources of CO₂ emissions are the energy and industrial
sectors, especially from burning fuel for energy production,
oil and gas extraction, transport, and human settlements
(Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010).
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation 35
Greenhouse gas emissions in Georgia, 1990–2006
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
By gases
50
45
45
N 2O
CH4
CO2
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
1990
2000
2006
1990
Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009
Greenhouse gas emissions change
from 1990 to 2006 in Georgia
1990 level
Waste
Agriculture
Industrial processes
Energy
-80%
Waste
Agriculture
Industrial processes
Energy
40
0
-100%
By sectors
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
50
-60%
-40%
-20%
Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009
36 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
0
1995
2000
2005
Economic map of Georgia
NS
Terek
Gagra
Sukhumi
k
re
Te
Abkhazia
I nguri
Tkvarcheli
RUSSIAN
F E D E R AT I O N
BLACK
SEA
Zugdidi
Anaklia
Kulevi
Poti
50 km
Tskhinvali
Zestaponi
Kura
Gori
BTC
Akhaltsikhe
BTE
Telavi
Kaspi
Tbilisi
GEORGIA
BT
C,
Kazreti
TURKEY
Debed
Gypsum
Refinery
Cement
Fishery
Wine-producing
Gold
Source: Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010; GRID-Tbilisi data.
Railway
Roads
Oil pipeline
Gas pipeline
Garden
Arable land
za
ni
Ku
ra
ARMENIA
Vineyard
Ala
BS
E
BT
Iron
Manganese
Copper
Lead and zinc
Rustavi
Iori
Oil
Natural gas
Bituminous coal
Brown coal
Peat
BS
Ozurgeti
Adjara
ruh i)
Ço okh
r
ho
(C
Chemical industry
Engineering and metal-working
Production of building materials
Chiatura
Rioni
Batumi
Metallurgy
Tkibuli
Kutaisi
Supsa
Kobuleti
0
lak
Su
i
on
Ri
Oil terminal
Transport
by tanker
AZERBAIJAN
BTC — Baku-Tbilisi-Ceihan
BS — Baku-Supsa
BTE — Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum
NS — North-South
Georgia: GHG emissions by economic sectors
Georgia’s economic growth has become irreversible since
2004. Georgia’s industry consists of machinery, mining,
the chemical industry, ferroalloys, wood, wine and mineral
water.­
Agriculture has been a leading sector since Soviet times.
Traditional crops include grapes, wheat, maize, fruit (including citrus), and tea.
Total GHG emissions in Georgia began to sharply decrease after 1990. Since 1991, the share of the energy sec-
tor in total emissions has been decreasing almost continuously. In 2006, its share comprised 45.6%, while in 1990
it had been 76.3%. The share of emissions from industrial
processes in 2006 was approximately the same as in 1987,
though the actual emissions decreased by about four
times. Key sources of GHG emissions in 2000 and 2006
did not change significantly compared with 1990. However,
the relative importance of different sources has changed
(Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009).
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation 37
Power Generation and Transmission in the South Caucasus
Terek
Nalchik
Abkhazia
Magas Grozny
In
Tkvarcheli
Sukhumi
Inguri
Vardnili-1
Poti
Rion
i
Kutaisi
lak
Su
i
Rion
Zestaponi
Ksani
Gori
Adjara
oro
Ch
(
ruh
Ço
1,300 MW
330–500 MW
Kars
300–550 MW
10–110 MW
110–220 MW
Transmission substations
Metsamor
(440 MW)
800–1,200 MW
110–330 MW
Nuclear Power Plant
Aras
2,400 MW
Gas PP
500 kV
330 kV
330 kV
220 kV
220 kV
110 kV
110 kV
De
Shamkir
Mingechevir
Yenikend
Hrazdan
Azerbaijan
Argel
Kanaker
Lake
Sevan
Yerevan
AZ
Oil PP
Nakhchivan
Lake
Van
Mingechevir
Ganja
n
Yerevan
Samur
i
Mingechevir reserv.
Vanadzor
AZERBA
NagornoKarabakh
Khankendi
(Stepanakert)
Goris
Shamb
Tatev
Kapan
Nakhchivan
Meghri
IRAN
Van
Sources: Ministries of Energy and Natural Resources of Armenia and Georgia; GENI; APESA, Global Energy Observatory.
38 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
d
an
Lachin
Transmission lines
500 kV
ri
ARMENIA
Thermal Power Plant
az
Io
be
Alaverdi
Gyumri
Al
Gardabani
Mtkvari
Hraz
da
Hydro Power Plant
Kura
)
Rustavi
Tbilisi
Khrami 1
Khrami 2
TURKEY
Telavi
Tbilisi
Akhaltsikhe
i
kh
RUSSIAN
F E D E R AT I O N
Tskhinvali
Zhinvali
GEORGIA
Batumi
Makhach
Vladikavkaz
Lajanuri
BLACK
SEA
ri
gu
as
Ar
the Energy sector in the South Caucasus
asus
The sources and means of energy generation, despite coexisting in
the same region, differ greatly in the South Caucasus countries. In
a country rich in fossil fuels, oil products and natural gas are commonly consumed in Azerbaijan. Energy production there is based on
natural gas, fuel oil and hydropower. Thermal power plants account
for 89% and hydro-power for 10% of total energy generation.
Armenia does not possess its own fuel resources and satisfies its
demand for fuel through imports. Its own primary energy resources
(hydro, nuclear) cover 31% of the country’s total energy consumption. The main type of fuel consumed is natural gas. In 2000–2006,
the share of natural gas in total fuel consumption reached 70–79%.
Over 80% of Georgia’s electricity is produced by hydropower. The
rest mainly comes from thermal power plants, using gas exported
from Azerbaijan and Iran. There is an economically viable potential of
32 TWh of hydropower production capacity, one of the largest in the
world, of which only 18% is currently being utilized. Georgia became
a net electricity exporter in 2007. With its massive unused capacity
and its current per capita electricity consumption, one of the lowest
in Europe, Georgia can easily increase its electricity exports while
satisfying fast-growing domestic electricity consumption, which is
rising by 8–9% annually (Second National Communications of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia).
Makhachkala
CASPIAN
SIAN
AT I O N
SEA
Samur
vir reserv.
Mingechevir
Sumgayit
Mingechevir
AZERBAIJAN
Absheron
substation
Sumgayit
Baku
Shimal
Baku
Key sources of electricity in 2008 (in %)
Armenia
Natural gas
Oil products
Hydropower
Shirvan
Kura
kendi
panakert)
Azerbaijan
Nuclear
Neftchala
as
Ar
Georgia
N
0
100 km
Source: International
Energy Agency.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation 39
Hatsvali with Ushba Mountain,
Upper Svaneti, GEORGIA
Impact of Climate Change
and Adaptation Measures
Black Sea Coast,
Georgia
Ps
o
u
Bzib
Gagra
+0.4 m
-0.6°
Sukhumi
Coastal
zone
Sea surface
water
temperature
since 1991
G E OriR G I A
o
Kod
Sukhumi
The Rioni River delta
Abkhazia
%
+40
Zugdidi
en
kh
Ts
Kulevi +1.6°
Kutaisi
+0.
+0.7 m
3 m Samtredia
Ri o n
Poti
Lake
Supsa Paliastomi
+0.45 m
The Rioni River
lower reaches
+0.2 m
Batumi Adjara
C +1.3°
+40%
BLACK
SEA
i
+60%
Sedimentation
is
Rio t s k a li
ni
Storm surges
for the last
half century
I nguri
Sea level rise
for the last
century
The Chorokhi
River delta
horokhi
+60%
Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009.
Caspian Sea Coast,
Azerbaijan
RUSSIAN
FEDERATION
r
mu
Sa
300
0
500 100
0
20
00
SEA
42
Inundated area (km²)
at two differents levels
by four segments:
Sumgayit
200
AZERBAIJAN
1118
0
CASPIAN
Segment 1
72
60
38
Absheron
Baku
60
32
Segment 2
as
Ar 200
500
372
0
200
Segment 3
Neftchala
60
1000
IRAN
Kura
Kura-Aras
Lowland
32
Ta
l
ys
h
Segment 4
Astara
-25.0 m BS
-26.5 m BS
mBS
-26
-27
-28
-29
Caspian Sea level
change in 1840–2005
1840
1880
1920
1960
Source: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010; MENR-Azerbaijan.
42 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
2000
Impacts of Climate Change:
The Black Sea Coast, Georgia
The Georgian Black Sea coastal zone is considered the
area most vulnerable to climate change in Georgia. Highly
developed coastal infrastructure, with a dense network of
railways and highways stretched along the coast, the important transportation and industrial hubs of port cities­
like Batumi, Poti and Sukhumi, and the great number of
settlements all play a significant role in the regional economy. Georgia’s Second National Communication to the
UNFCCC­ defines several specific sensitive areas along
the coastal zone : Rioni river delta, Chorokhi river delta, the
lower reaches of the Rioni river and the Sukhumi coastal
area. Some studies suggest the Rioni delta is the most
vulnerable area, already experiencing sea level rise and
increased storm surges. This situation will trigger more
change in the future, with a predicted temperature rise and
consequent negative impact on the environment (Georgia’s
Second National Communication, 2010).
Impacts of Climate Change:
The Caspian Sea Coast, A zerbaijan
Sea level fluctuations are a major cause of concern for the
Caspian Sea shoreline. As the largest naturally enclosed
water body on Earth, with no outflow to the oceans, the
Caspian Sea is particularly vulnerable to global climate
change processes. Starting from 1961 a level of -28.0 m
below sea level (BS) was conditionally taken as the zero
point for the Caspian Sea for observation and planning
purposes. Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication
predicts a further increase of sea level for another 30 to
40 years within the range of -26.5 to -25.0 m BS. Projected
damage to the economy would be within the magnitude of
USD 4.1 bn. Consequently Azerbaijan is preparing to take
adaptation measures (Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010).
Changes in seasonal and annual Temperature and Precipitation in the Lake Sevan basin, compared to 1961–1990
Precipitation change (%)
Temperature change (C°)
Winter
2030
2070
2100
1.4
3.2
4–6
Spring
0.9
2.1
2.5–4.5
Summer
1.8
3.9
5–7
Autumn
1.8
3.9
5–7
Annual
1.5
2030
3.3
4.1–6.1
2070
2100
Sources: Vulnerability of water resources in the Republic of Armenia
under climate change, Yerevan, 2009.
Autumn
Annual
-9
-2
- 5.5
-5
5
2.8
-7
-18
-4
-11
15
11
-11
11
6
East shore
-20
-10
-25
-5
-15
West shore
20
10
-15
15
7.5
Winter
Spring
East shore
-7
-4
West shore
7
+4
East shore
-15
West shore
Summer
Calm and nice Lake Sevan, sometimes as stormy as any sea
Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 43
Mudflow and landslide high risk
zones in the South Caucasus
Terek
Nalchik
Abkhazia
Poti
SEA
Batumi
Su
i
G E O R G I A Gori
Adjara
Al
az
Kur
a
Telavi
Tbilisi
Kur
a
Kars
ri
Ganja
NagornoKarabakh
Nakhchivan
Source: Armenian’s Second National Communication, 2010; Alizadeh E.K. (2007); MEP-Georgia.
Sumgayit
AZERBAIJAN
Goris
AZ
Kapan
Nakhchivan
Landslide
Mingechevir
reserv.
Mingechevir
Lachin
Lake
Van
Mudflow
Yerevan
Ara
Euphrates
Samur
Io
Lake
Sevan
s
Armavir
an
SEA
Sheki
ARMENIA
d
TURKEY
i
d
Alaverdi Debe
Gyumri Vanadzor
Kura
Hraz
Çoru h
an
Rustavi
CASPIAN
RUSSIAN
F E D E R AT I O N
Tskhinvali
Kutaisi
Akhaltsikhe
o
(Ch
lak
Rioni
Rion
i)
kh
ro
Makhachkala
Vladikavkaz
I
BLACK
Grozny
Magas
n g uri
Sukhumi
Baku
Kur
a
Khankendi
(Stepanakert)
as
Ar
Neftchala
Meghri
IRAN
0
100 km
IMpACT oF CLIMATE ChAnGE: nATuR AL DISASTERS
There are major climate change impacts taking place in
the South Caucasus, as shown by the observations of the
national hydrometeorology services of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. In particular, there is a recorded increase
in both mean and extreme air temperatures, in addition to
changes in rainfall amounts and patterns. Climate change
projection models predict even more increase of extreme
weather conditions, translating to a heavier and uneven
44 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
seasonal distribution of precipitation with possible dramatic consequences. As a result, the probability of devastating natural disasters such as landslides, avalanches,
river floods, flash floods and mudflows, causing human
casualties and economic losses, is expected to rise in the
near future (Second National Communications of Armenia,
Azerbaijan and Georgia).
Flooding and avalanche high risk
zones in the South Caucasus
Terek
Nalchik
Abkhazia
Poti
SEA
Batumi
S
Tskhinvali
Kutaisi
Rion
i
Al
az
Kur
G E O R G I A Gori
a
Adjara
Tbilisi
Telavi
a
d
Hraz
an
Ara
Flood
ri
Avalanche
Mingechevir
reserv.
AZERBAIJAN
NagornoKarabakh
Lachin
Lake
Van
Goris
AZ
Kapan
Nakhchivan
Nakhchivan
Meghri
Source: Armenian’s Second National Communication,
2010; Iritz, L. and Jincharadze, Z. (2010);
SoE-Georgia, 2007–2009; ReliefWeb.
Georgia is particularly exposed to weather extremes, most
likely because of its closer proximity to the Black Sea,
abundance of water resources, larger amount of ­annual
and seasonal precipitation, high soil humidity, etc. The
damage caused by the flooding during the last three years
was put at USD 65 m. An increasing frequency and intensity of avalanches has been detected since the last decades of the 20th century. More than 20,000 people were
Sumgayit
Mingechevir
Lake
Sevan
Yerevan
s
Armavir
Euphrates
Samur
Io
Ganja
ARMENIA
Kars
SEA
Sheki
Alaverdi Deb
Gyumri Vanadzor
i)
kh
ro
TURKEY
i
ed
Kura
CASPIAN
RUSSIAN
F E D E R AT I O N
an
Rustavi
Kur
Çoru h
k
ula
Rioni
Akhaltsikhe
o
(Ch
Makhachkala
Vladikavkaz
I
BLACK
Grozny
Magas
n g uri
Sukhumi
IRAN
Baku
Kur
a
Khankendi
(Stepanakert)
as
Ar
Neftchala
0
100 km
displaced from their homes between 1970 and 1987. About
53,000 locations damaged by gravitational landslides had
been identified by 2009. Mudflows are estimated to cause
damage of approximately USD 100 m annually. Overall,
economic damage caused by mudflows in Georgia over
the period 1987 to 1991 exceeded USD 1 bn; the damage­
caused by mudflows from 1995 to 2008 was over USD
330 m (State of the Environment Georgia, 2010).
Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 45
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE: Glacier Melting
1972
2002
In these pictures: Melting of the Laboda Glacier in Georgia: photos taken in 1972 and 2002.
Source: Institute of Geography, Javakhishvili State University, Tbilisi, Georgia.
G lacier melti n g i n t h e Cau cas u s
Glaciers are sensitive to climate change. Some climatologists suggest the contribution of melting glaciers to sealevel rise may have been increasing by as much as 27% for
the last few decades (Dyurgerov, 2003). The climate change
scenarios published by the IPCC predict up to 60% glacier
loss in the northern hemisphere by 2050 (Schneeberger et
al 2003). The Earth Policy Institute (www.earth-policy.org)
says glacial volume in the Caucasus has declined by 50%
during the last century and will decrease more severely in
the foreseeable future. Glaciers are very important water
resources for local communities, and play a significant role
in the water budget. Smaller glaciers are known to respond
more rapidly to climate change and are therefore more important in calculating overall impact.
Glaciers cover an area estimated at around 1,600 km² in
the Caucasus. Exact up-to-date information on the changes in their mass balance is not available. There is visual evidence of glacier recession in the Caucasus, but information
concerning the latter stages is limited. However those studies that have focused on glacier change in the Caucasus
(Bedford and Barry, 1994) reported a strong retreat trend
46 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Laboda-Zopkhito Glaciers
GEORGIA
Shkelda-Djankuat Glaciers zone
for 51 glaciers between 1972 and 1986. Chris R. Stokes,
Stephen D. Gurney, Maria Shahgedanova, Victor Popovin
(Late 20th-Century Changes in Glacier Extent in the Caucasus Mountains, Russia/Georgia) analysed glaciers of the
central Caucasus region, extending the analysis of Bedford
and Barry, and showed that the retreat trend has continued
throughout the 1980s and 1990s. Melting rates have greatly
accelerated since the mid-1990s. Moreover, the study indicates that the retreat of Caucasus glaciers from the mid1970s to 2000 correlates well with the temperature record.
In this picture: retreat of two glaciers on the
South slope of the central Caucasus­­ —­ the
Loboda and Zopkhito glaciers, between 1971
( yellow ) and 2009 ( blue ). The data on the
image­is a combination of ­CORONA imagery
dating from 1971, ­a SPOT image of 2007 and
a Digital Globe image ( Google Earth ) of 2008.
Glaciers melting in south part of the Central Caucasus
N
Laboda
Glacier
Source : Lambrecht, A., et al (2011).
Zopkhito
Glacier
GEORGIA
Glacier boundary in 2009
Supra-glacial debris cover (trace of glacier) in 1971
Source: Lambrecht A., et al (2011).
In this picture: retreat of six neighbouring glaciers in the central Caucasus between 1985
( yellow ) and 2000 ( red ), including Djankuat
glacier ( furthest east ), which has an extensive
mass balance record, and Shkhelda glacier
( furthest west ) with one of the largest retreat
rates in the Caucasus
500 m
0
Glaciers melting in north part of the Central Caucasus
N
RUSSIAN
FEDERATION
Kashkatash
Glacier
Source : Stokes, C. R., et al (2006).
Shkhelda
Glacier
Bashkara
Glacier
Bzhedukh
Glacier
Glacier line
Source: Stokes, C. R., et al (2006).
Another group of scientists (Lambrecht et al, 2011) focused
their study also on the central part of the Greater Caucasus — the Djankuat glacier (Russia) and the Zopkhito­ glacier (Georgia). The results of the study show that at the
southern end of the Caucasus range the exposition (southern slope) causes higher radiation input and thus more in-
in 1985
in 2000
Djankuat
Glacier
0
1 km
tensive ice melt. However, high cloudiness due to higher
radiation input also provides higher precipitation in the
south than in the north. As a result, the effective glacier
melt is about 20% less in the south. Both regions experienced strong glacier area loss during recent decades and
a gradual increase in debris cover (Lambrecht, et al, 2011).
Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 47
Potential impact of climate change on winegrowing zones of Georgia
Terek
Abkhazia
Lechkhumi
ek
I nguri
r
Te
Zemo Svaneti
Sukhumi
i
on
Ri
SEA
Samegrelo
Poti
Rion
i
Imereti
Tskhinvali
Kutaisi
Batumi
Kura
Samtskhe
Landslide area
Drought area
Mudflow area
Hystoricalgeographycal border
Tbilisi
Javakheti
Red, white and sparkling wines
Ala
Kakheti
Kvemo
Kartli
ARMENIA
Source: MEP-Georgia; Georgian Wine booklet, 2001.
Rustavi
GEORGIA
za
ni
Ku
ra
i
Flooding area
Telavi
Ior
Winegrowing area
(existing and potential)
Tusheti
Pshavi
Gori
Tori
Akhaltsikhe
TURKEY
Mtiuleti
Khevsureti
Shida
Kartli
Guria
Achara
lak
Su
Khevi
Racha
BLACK
RUSSIAN
F E D E R AT I O N
Kvemo Svaneti
ed
b
De
0
Mingechevir
reserv.
50 km
AZERBAIJAN
Impact of Climate Change on Winegrowing Zones of Georgia
Viticulture and wine production is one of the most viable
and oldest agricultural activities that have been carried out
for centuries in South Caucasus and particularly Georgia.
Both archaeology and history show that Georgia was cultivating grapevines and practicing ancient wine production more than 7,000 years ago (Ministry of Agriculture of
Georgia,­ 2011 — www.samtrest.gov.ge). In many regards
Georgia’s identity was closely connected with wine production, which was very popular among the former Soviet
states and always highly prized.
Georgia has excellent conditions for viticulture. A moder48 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
ate climate with a sufficient number of sunny days, frost-free
winters and moist air, in combination with fertile soils, mineral-rich and clean spring waters and a vast diversity of endemic agricultural species provide outstanding conditions
for it. The total share of agriculture in the country’s GDP is
about 10–14%, with viticulture and wine production playing
a very important role (Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009). However, increasing natural disasters and
specific weather extremes caused by global climate change
that is already affecting Georgia and especially its grapegrowing zones may jeopardize the sector considerably.
Grape Varieties
Vineyard area in the South Caucasus in 2009
Percent of
agriculture land
Armenia
0.8%
0.3%
1.2%
Area
thousand ha
Azerbaijan
Georgia
16.5
15
37.4
Sources: State statistical services of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia,
Year Books, 2010.
Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 49
Number of tourists in the Upper Svaneti
in 2009–2011
2011
26,000
(prognosed)
2010
13,000
2009
6,200
Source: www.komersanti.ge (6.01.2011)
Number of tourists in Georgia in 2000–2011
Million
3
2
1
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: Georgian National Tourism Agency.
Upper Svaneti, GEORGIA
THE Impact of Climate Change on GEORGIA’S Tourist Sector: Upper Svaneti
The Upper Svaneti region of Georgia has been a very popular tourist destination for a long time. Unique and mostly
untouched natural landscapes, high mountains, abundant
historical monuments and its exceptional cultural heritage are only few of the wonders ensuring this popularity.
Access to this region has never been easy though, due to
its rigid topography and the dilapidated infrastructure in
post-Soviet Georgia, exhausted by ethnic conflicts, civil
wars and consequent economic devastation. Attention to
50 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Svaneti has increased considerably in recent years, after
the launch of infrastructure rehabilitation projects and the
construction of hotels and a brand new airport in Mestia
(the regional capital). The airport now has a modern navigation system and connects Svaneti to major Georgian
airports, as well as some international destinations. The
number of visiting tourists has doubled compared with
recent years, since a ski resort (operating for about six
months each year) was developed in Hatsvali, a highland
e
r
G
Potential impact of climate change in the
a
Upper Svaneti touristic zone
t
GEORGIA
Hatsvali
Shkhelda
4,368 m
Tita
Naki
Mazeri
Iskari
Mestia
Ienashi
ra
lkh
ila
La
Khaishi
S
r
a
n
ist
i
al
sk
Avalanche hazard
Very strong
Strong
n
r
a
Dolra
g
Mananauri
e
Khe
led
ula
Tsanashi
n
Tskh
e
Tsana
nists
kali
Mele
Lentekhi
Motor road
Dirt road
Glaciers
Svaneti priority
conservation area
Airport
(WWF-Caucasus proposal)
resort close to one of the most charming mountain peaks
of Georgia — Ushba (4,710 m above sea level). Access to
the UNESCO world heritage site at Ushguli has also been
restored. However, an increased number of tourists will
also mean increased pressure on the fragile natural eco-
s
Shkhara
5,068 m
uri
Ing
e
Forest area
Sources: MEP-Georgia; MENR-Georgia; 1:50,000 Topographic maps.
Gistola
4,853 m
Chazhashi
g
Landslide
hazard
Moderate
UNESCO World
Heritage Site
Tvibi
ra
i
ob
Kh
s
i
u
kad
g
i
Adishi
Iprari
Las
a
leti
Kas
E
r
t
Tetnuldi
4,852 m
Zhabeshi
Laila
4008 m
e
v
Tsaneri
Tsaneri
Ieli
ri
Khudoni reserv.
(projected)
Lakhiri
Tsvirmi
Mu
Ingu
a
la
u
In
Ushba
4,710 m
lra
Do
i
r
gu
Ipari
c
Lekhzir
s
Ushba
u
tiac
M es ha
ns
Ne
Nakra
lra
kra
a
C
Do
Historical monument
Ski resort
0
10 km
systems in coming years. This will become an even more
sensitive issue as the region is located in the landslide and
avalanche high-risk zone and changing climate patterns,
with the predicted temperature rise and precipitation decrease, are cause for serious concerns.
Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 51
Potential impact of climate change in the South Caucasus
Ter
e
Nalchik
k
Magas Grozny
sk
he
n
BLACK
Poti
SEA
s
ist
k
T
Rion
lak
Su
Lentekhi
i
Rion
Tskhinvali
Kutaisi
RUSSIAN
F E D E R AT I O N
i
GEORGIA
Gori
Kur
Telavi
a
Adjara
Batumi
Rustavi
TURKEY
Alaverdi
Kura
Gyumri
Kars
Aras
az
Sheki
Mingechevir
NagornoKarabakh
Potential inundation area due to sea levele rise
Lachin
Glaciers melting
Nakhchivan
AZ
Depopulation due to increase natural disasters
Spread of malaria
Sources: Second National Communications of Armenia-2010, Azerbaijan-2010
and Georgia-2009; MEP-Armenia; MEP-Azerbaijan; MEP-Georgia; WHO-Europe.
52 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Lake
Van
AZE
Lake
Sevan
Yerevan
Land degradation and desertification
Mingechevir
reserv.
Ganja
an
Increased fashfloods due to weather extremes
Depletion of water resources
Samur
i
ra
Vanadzor
ARMENIA
an
Ku
ed
b
De
Hra
zd
)
hi
Al
Iori
Tbilisi
Akhaltsikhe
k
oro
Ch
(
ruh
Ço
Makhach
Vladikavkaz
a li
Abkhazia
Ingur
i
Sukhumi
Goris
Khankendi
(Stepanakert)
Kapan
as
Ar
Nakhchivan
Meghri
IRAN
Index of vulnerability to climate change*
Tajikistan
Albania
Kyrgystan
Index of vulnerability to climate
change*
ARMENIA
Makhachkala
GEORGIA
Tajikistan
Uzbekistan
Albania
AZERBAIJAN
Kyrgystan
Turkmenistan
ARMENIA
Turkey
CASPIAN
IAN
AT I O N
Moldova
GEORGIA
SEA
Serbia
Uzbekistan
Macedonia (F.Y.R.)
AZERBAIJAN
Turkmenistan
Russia
Turkey
Bulgaria
Moldova
Bosnia
Samur
Serbia
Kazakhstan
Macedonia
(F.Y.R.)
Romania
Sheki
Russia
Ukraine
Bulgaria
Belarus
Mingechevir
reserv.
Bosnia Croatia
Sumgayit
AZERBAIJAN
Kazakhstan
Poland
Romania
Latvia
Ukraine
Baku
Belarus
Hungary
SlovakiaCroatia
Sensitivity to climate change
Poland
Estonia
Exposure to impacts
Adaptive capacity
Kura
kendi
anakert)
Lithuania
Latvia
Czech Republic
Lithuania
Slovenia
Neftchala
10
as
8
6
4
2
0
Sensitivity to climate change
Increasing
and exposure
Exposuresensitivity
to impacts
Ar
N
0
100 km
Hungary
-2
-4
-6
Slovakia
Adaptation
capacity
Estonia
Adaptive
*Vulnerability
tocapacity
climatein change
is a2009.
combination
i) exposure
Czechof:
Republic
Source:
Climate
Change
Central Asia,
to hazards, measuring the strength of future climate change relaSlovenia
tive to today’s climate; ii) sensitivity, indicating which economic
sectors and ecosystem services are likely to be affected in view
of climate change, e.g. renewable water resources, agriculture
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
and hydro-power production ; and iii) adaptive capacity to climate
change, e.g. social, economic, and institutional settings to reIncreasing
sensitivity
exposure
Adaptation capacity
spond
to weather
shocksand
and
variability.
Source: Climate Change in Central Asia, 2009.
Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 53
Climate Change-related Issues
in the South Caucasus
Water resources
land and water
Land contamination by pesticides and heavy metals, salinization of soils, overgrazing pastures, illegal and ill-maintained
waste dumps close to water streams, glacier melting, depletion of freshwater sources (eastern part of South Caucasus)
lack of safe and good quality of drinking water.
Food security
Biodiversity
Social problems
Impact on livelihoods, agriculture, human health
FLOODS AND NATUR AL DISASTERS
Increased number of catastrophic floods due to weather extremes (Black Sea coast, Alazani Valley,
Kura lowland in Azerbaijan), devastating natural disasters — landslides, mudflows, flash-floods,
avalanches in mountainous zones, inundation of croplands, settlements at lowlands.
Impact on livelihoods, infrastructure, threat to human life and health, local and transboundary
problems, deterioration of social conditions
Agriculture
Land degradation and desertification (eastern part of South Caucasus),
salinization, droughts, coastal inundation and bogging (Black and Caspian Sea coastal zones), loss of soil fertility, decrease of crop production,
degradation of wine- and citrus-growing zones.
Impact on livelihood and food security
54 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
FORESTS, FAUNA AND FLORA
Displacement of natural boundaries at sensitive areas of eastern South
Caucasus (temperate forest ecosystems), loss of resilience of flora and
fauna to invasive species, loss of natural ecosystem “corridors” for
migration of rare and endemic species, increased cases of forest fires,
degradation of landscape diversity, loss of biodiversity.
Impact on livelihoods, biodiversity, freshwater resources, agriculture,
human health
sea and coastal
Sea level rise, land inundation, coastal erosion, increased number of
storm surges, pollution of sea water by oil products (Caspian Sea) and
by untreated wastewater discharge (Black and Caspian Seas), coastal
line change, lack of safe drinking water, decrease in number and diversity of marine specifies, deterioration of coastal infrastructure, spread of
Malaria at inundated areas (eastern part of South Caucasus).
Impact on coastal and sea biodiversity, livelihoods, agriculture, transport
and other infrastructure, tourism
PEOPLE AND WELLBEING
Depopulation and eco-migration due to increased number of devastating natural disasters
— landslides, mudflows, avalanches at highland zones of Adjara and Svaneti (Western
Georgia), lack of safe drinking water and food, increase of poverty, spread of infectious
diseases, increased stress due to heat waves, increased cases of cardiovascular diseases.
Threat to human life, health and social conditions
Climate Change-related Issues in the South Caucasus 55
References
Main background documents:
Caucasus Environment Outlook (2002), UNEP.
First National Communication of the Republic of Armenia (1998). Ministry of
Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia.
Climate Change in Central Asia (2009). Zoï Environment Network.
Armenia’s Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2010). Ministry of Nature Protection
of the Republic of Armenia.
Dyurgerov, M.B. 2003. Mountain and subpolar glaciers show an increase
in sensitivity to climate warming and intensification of the water cycle.
­J. Hydrol.,­282(1–4), 164–176.
Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus (2010), Autrement, Paris.
Initial National Communication of Azerbaijan Republic on Climate Change
(2000). National Climate Research Centre.
Georgian National Tourism Agency.
Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (2010). Ministry of Ecology and
Natural Resources of Azerbaijan Republic.
Georgian Wine booklet (2001), Tbilisi.
Georgia’s Initial National Communication under the United Nations framework convention on Climate Change (1999). National Climate Research
Centre.
GRID-Tbilisi data. European Tribune:
www.eurotrib.com/story/2006/11/20/113536/31
GRID-Arendal (2008) Caucasus ecoregion.
Institute of Geography, Javakhishvili State University, Tbilisi, Georgia.
Georgia’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC (2009). Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources of Georgia.
Regional Climate Change Impacts Study for the South Caucasus Region
(2011). ENVSEC, UNDP.
Additional references:
Alizadeh E.K. Sustainable development of mountain geosystems in the
conditions of strengthening morphodynamic intensity (on an example of
Azerbaijan), the bulletin of the Vladikavkaz centre of science, 2007, n°3.
Assessment of vulnerability of water resource to climate change in transboundary river basins (Khrami-Debed and Aghstev) and recommendations
on the corresponding adaptation measures. Yerevan, 2011.
Association of the power engineers and specialists of Azerbaijan (APESA):
www.azenerji.com.
Azerbaijan international Magazine (11.04.2003): www.azer.com — Pages
similaires
Iritz, L. and Jincharadze, Z. Needs Assessment of a Flood Early Warning
System in Georgia. Disaster Risk Reduction Consultancy Report. June
2010, UNDP. Tbilisi, Georgia.
Commersant. Online Magazine (6.01.2011):
www.commersant.ge
Lambrecht A., Mayer C., Hagg W., Popovnin V., Rezepkin A., Lomidze N.
and Svanadze D. A comparison of glacier melt on debris-covered glaciers
in the Northern and Southern Caucasus. The Cryosphere Discuss., 5, 431–
459, 2011: www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/5/431/2011/
Londex Resources: www.londex.org/projects.html
Melconyan H., Hovsepyan A. Climate Change Scenarios over South
­Caucasus Region. UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for
the South Caucasus, 2011.
Schneeberger, C., H. Blatter, A. Abe-Ouchi and M. Wild. 2003. Modeling
changes in the mass balance of glaciers of the northern hemisphere for a
transient 2xCO₂ scenario. J. Hydrol., 282, 145–163.
Bedford, D.P. and Barry, R.G. 1994. Glacier trends in the Caucasus, 1960s
to 1980s. Phys. Geogr., 15(5), 414–424.
State of the Environment of Armenia (2002), GRID-Arendal.
Caucasus ecoregion — environment and human development issues,
UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2008.
State of the Environment of Georgia (2007-2009). Ministry of Environmental
Protection and Natural resources of Georgia.
56 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
State of the Environment of Georgia (2010), draft report. Ministry of Environ­
mental Protection and Natural resources of Georgia.
Stokes, C.R., Gurney, S.D., Shahgedanova, M., Popovin, V. 2006. Late20th-Century Changes in Glacier Extent in the Caucasus Mountains,
­Russia/Georgia. Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 52 No. 176.
StratOil: www.stratoil.wikispaces.com/Azerbaijan
UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus,
2011.
Vulnerability of water resources in the Republic of Armenia under climate
change, Yerevan, 2009.
Statistical Year Book of Azerbaijan, 2010:
www.azstat.org/statinfo/demoqraphic/en/index.shtml;
www.azstat.org/statinfo/environment/en/index.shtml
Statistical Year Book of Georgia, 2010: www.geostat.ge/cms/site_images/_
files/yearbook/Statistical%20Yearbook_2010.pdf
Azerbaijan National Hydrometeorological Department:
www.eco.gov.az/en/prog-buro.php
Climate Wizard: www.climatewizard.org
Earth Policy Institute: www.earth-policy.org
Index Mundi: www.indexmundi.com
World Trade Press, 2007.
1:50,000 Topographic maps.
Institute for Atmospheric Physics:
www.dlr.de/pa/en/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-2559/3824_read-5749
Online databases and information sources:
Global Energy Network Institute (GENI): www.geni.org
Ministry of Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia: www.mnp.am
Global Energy Observatory: www.globalenergyobservatory.org
Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan Republic:
www.eco.gov.az
International Energy Agency: www.iea.org
PRECIS Regional Climate Modelling System: www.metoffice.gov.uk/ precis
Ministry of Environment Protection of Georgia: www.moe.gov.ge
ReliefWeb: www.reliefweb.int/countries
Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of Georgia: www.menr.gov.ge
United Nations statistics: www.unstats.un.org/unsd/default.htm
Ministry of Agriculture of Georgia: www.moa.gov.ge
WHO-Europe, Malaria: www.euro.who.int
Climate Change Information Center of Armenia: www.nature-ic.am
World Bank statistics: www.data.worldbank.org
Armenian State Hydrometeorological and Monitoring Service:
www.meteo.am
National Environmental Agency of Georgia: www.meteo.gov.ge
Photos:
Atlas and Prometheus. Laconian Kylix, 6th c. BCE. Vatican Museums:
www.utexas.edu/courses/larrymyth/2Prometheus2009.html
National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia: www.armstat.am
Alazani River in the border of Georgia and Azerbaijan, Jincharadze Z., 2007.
The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan:
www.azstat.org
Debed river at Northern Armenia, Jincharadze Z., 2007
National Statistics Office of Georgia: www.geostat.ge
Upper Svaneti, GEORGIA, Naveriani V.
Statistical Year Book of Armenia, 2010:
www.armstat.am/en/?nid=45&year=2010
References 57
Abbreviations and Glossary
APESA
AZ
BS
CEO
CORONA
ECHAM
ENVSEC
GCCP
GCM
GDP
GEF
GEL
GENI
GHG
GRID
HAD300
HADCM
HADCM3
HTC
LULUCF
MAGICC/
SCENGEN
Association of the Power Engineers and Specialists
of Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan
Baltic Sea
Caucasus Environment Outlook
Series of American strategic reconnaissance satellites produced in 1959–1972
Global climate model for climate research. The
model was given its name as a combination of its
origin, the “EC” being short for ECMWF (European
Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and
the place of development of its parameterisation
package, Hamburg.
The Environment and Security Initiative
Global Climate Change Processes
Global Circulation Model
Gross Domestic Product
Global Environment Facility
Georgian Lari
Global Energy Network Institute
Greenhouse Gas
Global Resource Information Database
One of the global circulation model (GCMs)
Hadley Centre Coupled Model (Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model developed
at the Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom)
Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3
Hydrothermal Coefficient
Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry
MAGICC: User-friendly software package that takes
emissions scenarios for greenhouse gases, reactive
gases, and sulphur dioxide as input and gives global-mean temperature, sea level rise, and regional
climate as output.
SCENGEN: Regionalization algorithm that uses
a scaling method to produce climate and climate
change information on a 5° latitude by 5° longitude
grid.
58 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
MENR
MEP
Mil
PP
PRECIS
SoE
SPOT
TWh
UN
UNDP
UNESCO
UNFCCC
USD
WEAP
WHO
Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources
Ministry of Environment Protection
Million
Power Plant
In French précis — “PRAY-sea” — is based on the
Hadley Centre’s regional climate
State of the Environment
In French: Système Probatoire d’Observation de la
Terre. Probationary System of Earth Observation
— high-resolution, optical imaging Earth observation satellite system operating from space
Terawatt hour
United Nations
United Nations Development Programme
The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change
United States Dollar
Water Evaluation and Planning Model
World Health Organization
Chemical Combinations
CO₂
CH₄
N₂O
Carbon dioxide
Methane
Nitrous oxide
The Georgian artist, Nina Joerchjan, has produced a set of
collages to illustrate the Zoï Environment Network publication, Climate Change in the South Caucasus. At first sight:
beautiful renderings of mountain landscapes, vineyards,
fruits, animals and archaic architecture. In the long tradition of the region’s folk art, many scenes — such as Ararat
mountain — are immediately recognizable as Caucasian
icons. The images evoke Pirosmani, although people — the
main subject of the famous Georgian painter at the turn
of the twentieth century — are almost completely absent.
But why use such a traditional and happy style to illustrate
such a grim and existential subject as climate change? The
­answer comes in a second, closer look that the artwork
­deserves. New elements appear: an oil platform, a ski lift
and a somewhat strange, turtle-like structure giving the
­Tbilisi skyline a new look. Even without these modern elements, a sense of fragility becomes obvious. An idyll in the
process of being destroyed, nature and livelihoods being
threatened, climate change being real. The artist has found
a silent, non-alarmist tone to show that things are still there,
however fragile. It is up to us to preserve this unique heritage. There may still be time.
Abbreviation/Nina Joerchjan 59
Zoï Environment Network
Tel. +41 22 917 83 42
www.zoinet.org
[email protected]
International Environment House
Chemin de Balexert 9
CH-1219 Châtelaine
Geneva, Switzerland