Download SESSION 16: Adaptation Planning II - International

American Water Resources Association 2017 SUMMER SPECIALTY CONFERENCE Climate Change Solutions: Collaborative Science, Policy and Planning for Sustainable Water Management June 26‐28, 2017 Tysons, VA Tuesday, June 27 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM SESSION 16: Adaptation Planning III – International Irrigation Efficiency as a Tool for Climate Smart Agriculture ‐ Michael Davidson, Davidson Consultants, Altadena, CA Climate change and impending population growth threaten the sustainability of socio‐ecological systems (SES). The Least‐developed countries (LDCs) are the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and are projected to triple their population in the next 75years. These countries are also the most water scarce and predominantly rely on agriculture for their livelihoods. Agricultural systems are the single, largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and are the most sensitive to environmental externalities. Agricultural water consumption accounts for 70% of all accessible freshwater and new research provides evidence that food production and food processing account for 90% of all available freshwater. Climate‐smart agriculture (CSA) has been developed as a concept to mitigate the environmental damages caused by traditional agricultural practices, provide adaptive tools to changing environmental conditions and provide increased agricultural production and livelihoods for farmers in the LDCs. This research examined the Jujuy Province, a semi‐arid agricultural community in northwest Argentina. This research measured and compared seventy‐two climate change scenarios over a five‐
decadal period, based on eight Global Circulation Models (GCMs), three emission scenarios and three different irrigation regimes, for the purpose of determining if CSA methodologies can provide the province with sufficient water for all agricultural and urban sectors by the year 2065. The key independent variable in this study is irrigation efficiency, which is one of the primary tools of climate‐
smart agriculture. The objectives of this research are: to measure the extent to which GHGs are reduced when water‐use efficiency is improved; to measure the extent to which urban water security is improved as a function of increased water‐use efficiency; and to reliably establish a model for sustainable agricultural productivity in the next fifty years. This research provides generalizable and replicable evidence showing that these objectives can be achieved when the principles of irrigation science are implemented. Vulnerability of Fresh Water Resources in the Ganges Delta of Bangladesh ‐ Sonia Binte Murshed, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Utah State Un, Logan, UT (co‐authors: J. J. Kaluarachchi) The Ganges Delta in Bangladesh is a classic example of climate and human induced catastrophic condition in a major river basin. This region is facing fresh water scarcity during the dry season due to the diversion of upstream water flow and low rainfall. In contrast, flood is also a common phenomenon here due to heavy rainfall in the wet season, drainage congestion and reduction of the carrying capacity of rivers. Nearly 33% of this region is covered with polders (enclosed dikes) which are producing water logged conditions due to high sedimentation of surrounding rivers. The objective of this study is to examine the consequences of climate and person‐made stressors on fresh water availability. Temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and wind speed data of 11 meteorological weather stations from 1961 to 2015 are used to calculate evapotranspiration (ET) by applying the complimentary method. A total of 24 core climate indices for temperature and rainfall are computed to understand climatic variability and trend. Flow duration curves (FDC) are used to assess the change of incoming upstream flow. Land use and demographic changes are also considered to evaluate their influence on fresh water availability. Man Kendall trend and Sen's slope tests were performed to check the statistical significance. The study has found statistically significant increasing trend for both temperature and ET. In addition, 64% of stations show statistically significant increase for extreme hot days (temperature > 30°C), Heating Degree days and Cooling Degree days. Although, there is no statistically significant trend for overall rainfall but consecutive dry days (CDD) are increasing. 73% of the stations show increase in CDD of which 27% are statistically significant. These results suggest the fact that extreme incidents are increasing. Besides the climatic factors, water diversion in Ganges River reducing the upstream incoming flow. FDC depicts a large variation between high flow thresholds (25%) and low flow threshold (75%) in the Bangladesh part of Ganges River. The reduction of fresh water flow increased the extent and intensity of salinity intrusion. Salinity along with water logged conditions are reducing the livelihood options considerably which force people to migrate from the delta area. This study will lead to an improved management approach of water resources that is applicable to offset fresh water scarcity and flooding issues in this deltaic area. Addressing Climate Change Risks to Hydro Power through Resilient Project and Power Systems Planning ‐ Molly Hellmuth, ICF, Chappaqua, NY As a result of the increasing demand for electricity ‐ particularly electricity that does not increase GHG emissions ‐ the pace of hydro power development is growing rapidly worldwide. Power planners and investors in hydro power dominant regions and countries are increasingly aware of and concerned about the effect of climate change on hydro power resources, but are grappling with identifying ways to address and manage these risks. In fact, most power planners and hydro power managers and investors, do not yet explicitly consider future climate conditions as part of routine business risk analysis ‐‐either because they do not recognize that future climate risks will differ from past climate risks, or because they do not know how to account for future climate change risks as part of a rigorous business risk analysis. Compounding these risks is the inter‐dependency of energy systems, water systems, and land resources―and the effect of climate change impacts across these sectors on energy reliability. Unless these risks are addressed, the intended benefits of hydro power may be short‐lived; particularly if electricity grids must turn to traditional, carbon‐intensive energy sources such as coal‐fired plants when hydro power becomes constrained. In the event of hydro power disruptions, power system managers and even consumers (i.e., industry) typically adopt carbon‐intensive alternatives in order to meet potential energy shortfalls. ICF has been working with energy planners and managers to integrate climate risk management into project‐level hydro power investment decisions, and regional and national power planning processes, in order to better ensure long‐term energy security and project sustainability. Through project work in the U.S., and in parts of SE Asia and Africa, ICF has been working to bridge climate resilience and low emissions development. This presentation will focus on presenting the lessons learned from collaborations with the Western Electricity Coordinating Council Scenario Planning Steering Group, the ASEAN Center for Energy, and the Governments of Tanzania and Ghana. We will present two decision support tools developed and applied: 1) a framework for screening hydro power projects for climate change risks to environmental, financial, and social performance, and 2) an integrated resources and resiliency planning framework for informing climate resilient, low emission power planning. These approaches focus on balancing multiple objectives, including climate change resilience. They consider climate impacts on energy reliability within an integrated energy‐water‐land context in order to better understand the full range of direct and indirect impacts. The presentation will emphasize the importance of explicitly considering trade‐offs in hydro power project and power planning, in order to improve power system resilience, enhance energy security, and meet low emission development goals.