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Climate change impacts on ecosystem services in the Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot Dr. Tino Johansson International Conference on East African Mountains (ICEAM) 2011 Mbale Resort Hotel, Mbale, Uganda, November 15, 2011 Contents of the presentation Predicted impacts of climate change in the Greater Horn of Africa Climate change impacts on pollinators and insect pests CHIESA project in the Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot (EABH) Predicted impacts of climate change in the GHA Findings of the World Climate Research Programme workshop in Nairobi, 21–25 February 2011: Global Climate Models supported by Regional Climate Models > downscaling & higher resolution Some climate signals apparent in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA): - rising temperatures - decreasing trends in rainfall - melting and decreasing mountain glaciers - increasing frequency of extreme climate events, such as droughts and floods Predicted impacts of climate change in the GHA Findings of the World Climate Research Programme workshop in Nairobi, 21–25 February 2011: Observed impacts - rising sea level - resurgences of diseases - river flows become seasonal or even disappear - decreasing lake levels and areal extent - shifts in seasonal rainfall Uncertainties - incorrect or incomplete description of key processes and feedback mechanisms - natural variability of climate Anthropogenic land cover change conversion of land for agriculture, plantations and commercial estates illegal logging of timber, firewood collection and charcoal production fragmentation of natural forests, their proportion and spatial distribution in agricultural landscape matrices Important feedbacks on local and regional climate dynamics downscaling the statistical outputs of climate models Climate change impacts on ecosystem services Ecosystem services defined as “benefits that people obtain from ecosystems” Provisioning services (e.g. food, freshwater, raw materials) Regulating services (e.g. pest mitigation and pollination) Cultural services (e.g. ethical and spiritual values, ecotourism) Supporting services (e.g. habitat, nutrient and water cycling, and primary production) Impacts on pollinators and insect pests Altering circumstances at ecosystem and species level geographical range shifts in pollinators and insect pests distribution temperature rise will provide favorable conditions for the expansion of their distributional range study on coffee berry borer (Jaramillo et al. 2011) indicates that a rise of 2°C or more will lead to shifts in altitudinal and latitudinal distribution of this harmful species Jaramillo, J., Muchugu, E., Vega, F.E., Davis, A., Borgemeister, C. and Chabi-Olaye, A. (2011). Some Like It Hot: The Influence and Implications of Climate Change on Coffee Berry Borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and Coffee Production in East Africa. PLoS ONE 6(9): e24528. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0024528. Impacts on pollinators and insect pests Altering circumstances at ecosystem and species level phenological changes decoupling of coevolved interactions, such as plant– pollinator relationships Impacts on pollination services Scale-dependent effects of landscape context changes in single habitats vs. spatial patterns and ecological processes at the landscape scale Steffan-Dewenter et al. (2002): Solitary wild bees, bumble bees and honey bees respond to landscape context at different spatial scales local landscape changes affect solitary wild bees more than social bees, possibly changing plant-pollinator and competitive wild bee-honey bee interactions Steffan-Dewenter, I., Muntzenberg, U., Burger, C., Thies, C. and Tscharntke, T. (2002). Scale-dependent effects of landscape context on three pollinator guilds. Ecology 83(5), 1421-1432. Impacts on pollination services Scale-dependent effects of landscape context the presence of natural and semi-natural habitats in agroecosystems a more diverse vegetation likely to support a more diverse population of pollinators future studies at the EABH will provide more information about the effects of CC to pollination services Impacts on pollination services Scale-dependent effects of landscape context Forest cover in year X Forest cover in year Y CHIESA Project Overview Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Services and Food Security in Eastern Africa - Increasing Knowledge, Building Capacity and Developing Adaptation Strategies funded by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland a 54-month research and development project (2011–2015) objective: to fill the critical gaps in knowledge on the impacts of climate change and variability in Eastern Africa on sensitive and unique ecosystems (Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot) and on their ecosystem services and food security CHIESA Project Overview Project partners International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology University of Helsinki, Finland Sokoine University of Agriculture, Tanzania University of York, United Kingdom University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania CHIESA Project Stakeholders Ethiopia Kenya Title Addis Ababa University Jimma University National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia Environmental Protection Agency of Ethiopia Climate Change Forum of Ethiopia Environment and Coffee Forest Forum Tanzania Tanzanian Meteorological Agency Tanzanian Coffee Research Institute Seliani Agricultural Research Institute Tengeru Horticultural Research and Training Institute Ministry of Water of Tanzania Kenya Forestry Service Kenya Agricultural Research Institute National Museum of Kenya Body text Department of Remote Sensing and Resource Survey University of Nairobi Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology Kenya Meteorological Department Kenyatta University Regional and international Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in East and Central Africa WWF US Ecosystem Services Group Birdlife International IUCN Eastern and Southern Africa CC impacts on ecosystem services Consequences Causes Causes, consequences and remedies of climate change impacts on ecosystem services: framework for the CHIESA project Anthropogenic land use change Loss of forests and natural vegetation Increase of croplands and barren lands Climate change Change in precipitation and temperature Land cover change Water resources Loss of vegetation cover Increase in albedo Changes in radiation balance Changes in water balance Changes Changes Changes Changes Pollinators Changes in habitat in precipitation in surface water in ground water in water provision Biodiversity and habitat Pest management Changes in plant and animal biodiversity Changes in habitat conditions Shifts in habitat Changes in habitat Stresses Invasive species Food production Remedies Food security Livelihoods Adaptation strategies Increase of knowledge Empiric analysis and data Training Capacity building Human resources Technological resources Scientific resources Long term monitoring Scenarios and prediction models Conservation agriculture Biological control Alternative cropping systems Dissemination and education Early-warning systems Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot Afromontane refers to one of the biogeographical subregions within the Afrotrophic ecozone Afromontane means biogeographically (flora and fauna) similar regions in the African mountains Biodiversity Hotspot is one of the 34 globally identified and characterized regions by both - exceptional level of plant endemism - serious levels of habitat loss Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot Location of the Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot 3 ancient mountain massifs: Ethiopian Highlands Eastern Arc Mountains & Southern Rift Albertine Rift Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot Location of the Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot Also other mountains, e.g: Asir Mountains and Yemen Highlands Mt. Elgon, Mt. Kenya and the Aberdares Mt. Kilimanjaro Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot steep elevation gradients with associated climates and ecosystems transition from lowland forest ecosystems to montane forests and heath land at higher altitudes landscapes characterized by mosaics of agriculture and forests (natural and plantations) resource competition between agriculture and biodiversity conservation CHIESA Project Overview Research areas within the East African Biodiversity Hotspot Research transects in the EABH The Taita Hills, Kenya Research transects in the EABH Research transect in the Taita Hills Automatic Weather Station Research transects in the EABH Didessa River Basin in Jimma, Ethiopia Research transects in the EABH SE slope of Mt. Kilimanjaro, Pangani River Basin CHIESA Project Overview Automatic Meteorological Stations 11 AWS established along the altitudinal gradients of three research transects Parameters measured: -Wind speed & direction -Air temperature -Leaf wetness -Relative humidity -Atmospheric pressure -Precipitation -Solar radiation -Soil moisture -Soil temperature -Evaporation CHIESA Project Overview Materials and methods Geospatial datasets (satellite imagery & aerial photography) for land use and land cover change detection Hydro-meteorological data (historical and present) for predictive regional climate models Pollinator and insect pest studies on species diversity, distribution, abundance and target crops along the research transects Eco-physiological and reproductive responses of target pests to climate change studied outdoors and indoors for creating risk maps and forecasting potential areas of pest outbreaks and impaired pollination services influences on food security CHIESA Project website If you would like to know more about our project... please visit: http://chiesa.icipe.org Thank you!