Download Climate change impacts on ecosystem

Climate change impacts on ecosystem services in
the Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot
Dr. Tino Johansson
International Conference on
East African Mountains
(ICEAM) 2011
Mbale Resort Hotel, Mbale,
Uganda, November 15, 2011
Contents of the presentation
 Predicted impacts of climate change in the Greater Horn of
Africa
 Climate change impacts on pollinators and insect pests
 CHIESA project in the Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity
Hotspot (EABH)
Predicted impacts of climate change in the GHA
Findings of the World Climate Research Programme
workshop in Nairobi, 21–25 February 2011:
 Global Climate Models supported by Regional Climate
Models > downscaling & higher resolution
 Some climate signals apparent in the Greater Horn of
Africa (GHA):
- rising temperatures
- decreasing trends in rainfall
- melting and decreasing mountain glaciers
- increasing frequency of extreme climate events,
such as droughts and floods
Predicted impacts of climate change in the GHA
Findings of the World Climate Research Programme
workshop in Nairobi, 21–25 February 2011:
 Observed impacts
- rising sea level
- resurgences of diseases
- river flows become seasonal or even disappear
- decreasing lake levels and areal extent
- shifts in seasonal rainfall
 Uncertainties
- incorrect or incomplete description of key processes
and feedback mechanisms
- natural variability of climate
Anthropogenic land cover change
 conversion of land for agriculture, plantations and
commercial estates
 illegal logging of timber, firewood collection and charcoal
production
 fragmentation of natural forests, their proportion and
spatial distribution in agricultural landscape matrices
Important feedbacks on
local and regional climate
dynamics
downscaling the statistical
outputs of climate models
Climate change impacts on ecosystem services
Ecosystem services defined as “benefits that people
obtain from ecosystems”
 Provisioning services (e.g. food, freshwater, raw materials)
Regulating services (e.g. pest mitigation and pollination)
 Cultural services (e.g. ethical and spiritual values,
ecotourism)
 Supporting services (e.g. habitat, nutrient and water cycling,
and primary production)
Impacts on pollinators and insect pests
Altering circumstances at ecosystem and
species level
 geographical range shifts in pollinators and insect pests
distribution
 temperature rise will provide favorable conditions for the
expansion of their distributional range
 study on coffee berry borer (Jaramillo et al. 2011) indicates
that a rise of 2°C or more will lead to shifts in altitudinal
and latitudinal distribution of this harmful species
Jaramillo, J., Muchugu, E., Vega, F.E., Davis, A., Borgemeister, C. and Chabi-Olaye, A.
(2011). Some Like It Hot: The Influence and Implications of Climate Change on Coffee
Berry Borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and Coffee Production in East Africa. PLoS ONE
6(9): e24528. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0024528.
Impacts on pollinators and insect pests
Altering circumstances at ecosystem and
species level
 phenological changes
 decoupling of coevolved interactions, such as plant–
pollinator relationships
Impacts on pollination services
Scale-dependent effects of landscape context
 changes in single habitats vs. spatial patterns and ecological
processes at the landscape scale
 Steffan-Dewenter et al. (2002): Solitary wild bees, bumble
bees and honey bees respond to landscape context
at different spatial scales
 local landscape changes affect solitary wild bees more than
social bees, possibly changing plant-pollinator and
competitive wild bee-honey bee interactions
Steffan-Dewenter, I., Muntzenberg, U., Burger, C., Thies, C. and Tscharntke, T. (2002).
Scale-dependent effects of landscape context on three pollinator guilds. Ecology 83(5),
1421-1432.
Impacts on pollination services
Scale-dependent effects of landscape context
 the presence of natural and semi-natural habitats in agroecosystems
 a more diverse vegetation likely to support a more diverse
population of pollinators
 future studies at the EABH will provide more information
about the effects of CC to pollination services
Impacts on pollination services
Scale-dependent effects of landscape context
Forest cover in year X
Forest cover in year Y
CHIESA Project Overview
Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Services
and Food Security in Eastern Africa - Increasing
Knowledge, Building Capacity and Developing
Adaptation Strategies
 funded by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland
 a 54-month research and development project (2011–2015)
 objective: to fill the critical gaps in knowledge on the impacts
of climate change and variability in Eastern Africa on sensitive
and unique ecosystems (Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity
Hotspot) and on their ecosystem services and food security
CHIESA Project Overview
Project partners
 International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology
 University of Helsinki, Finland
 Sokoine University of Agriculture, Tanzania
 University of York, United Kingdom
University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
CHIESA Project Stakeholders
Ethiopia
Kenya
Title
Addis Ababa University
Jimma University
National Meteorological
Agency of Ethiopia
Environmental Protection
Agency of Ethiopia
Climate Change Forum of Ethiopia
Environment and Coffee Forest Forum
Tanzania
Tanzanian Meteorological Agency
Tanzanian Coffee Research Institute
Seliani Agricultural Research Institute
Tengeru Horticultural Research and
Training Institute
Ministry of Water of Tanzania
Kenya Forestry Service
Kenya Agricultural Research Institute
National Museum of Kenya
Body text
Department of Remote Sensing and
Resource Survey
University of Nairobi
Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture
and Technology
Kenya Meteorological Department
Kenyatta University
Regional and international
Regional Centre for Mapping of
Resources for Development
Association for Strengthening Agricultural
Research in East and Central Africa
WWF US Ecosystem Services Group
Birdlife International
IUCN Eastern and Southern Africa
CC impacts on ecosystem services
Consequences
Causes
Causes, consequences and remedies of climate change impacts on
ecosystem services: framework for the CHIESA project
Anthropogenic land use change
Loss of forests and natural vegetation
Increase of croplands and barren lands
Climate change
Change in precipitation
and temperature
Land cover change
Water resources
Loss of vegetation cover
Increase in albedo
Changes in radiation balance
Changes in water balance
Changes
Changes
Changes
Changes
Pollinators
Changes in habitat
in precipitation
in surface water
in ground water
in water provision
Biodiversity and habitat
Pest management
Changes in plant and animal biodiversity
Changes in habitat conditions
Shifts in habitat
Changes in habitat
Stresses
Invasive species
Food production
Remedies
Food security
Livelihoods
Adaptation strategies
Increase of knowledge
Empiric analysis and data
Training
Capacity building
Human resources
Technological resources
Scientific resources
Long term monitoring
Scenarios and prediction models
Conservation agriculture
Biological control
Alternative cropping systems
Dissemination and education
Early-warning systems
Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot
 Afromontane refers to one of the biogeographical subregions within the Afrotrophic ecozone
 Afromontane means biogeographically (flora and fauna)
similar regions in the African mountains
 Biodiversity Hotspot is one of the 34 globally identified and
characterized regions by both
- exceptional level of plant endemism
- serious levels of habitat loss
Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot
 Location of the Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot
3 ancient mountain massifs:
Ethiopian Highlands
Eastern Arc Mountains &
Southern Rift
Albertine Rift
Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot
 Location of the Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot
Also other mountains, e.g:
Asir Mountains and Yemen
Highlands
Mt. Elgon, Mt. Kenya and the
Aberdares
Mt. Kilimanjaro
Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot
 steep elevation gradients with associated climates and
ecosystems
 transition from lowland forest ecosystems to montane
forests and heath land at higher altitudes
 landscapes characterized by mosaics of agriculture and
forests (natural and plantations)
 resource competition between agriculture and biodiversity
conservation
CHIESA Project Overview
Research areas within the East African
Biodiversity Hotspot
Research transects in the EABH
The Taita Hills, Kenya
Research transects in the EABH
Research transect in the Taita Hills
Automatic
Weather
Station
Research transects in the EABH
Didessa River Basin in Jimma, Ethiopia
Research transects in the EABH
SE slope of Mt. Kilimanjaro, Pangani River Basin
CHIESA Project Overview
Automatic Meteorological Stations
 11 AWS established along the altitudinal gradients of three
research transects
Parameters measured:
-Wind speed & direction
-Air temperature
-Leaf wetness
-Relative humidity
-Atmospheric pressure
-Precipitation
-Solar radiation
-Soil moisture
-Soil temperature
-Evaporation
CHIESA Project Overview
Materials and methods
 Geospatial datasets (satellite imagery & aerial photography)
for land use and land cover change detection
 Hydro-meteorological data (historical and present) for
predictive regional climate models
 Pollinator and insect pest studies on species diversity,
distribution, abundance and target crops along the research
transects
 Eco-physiological and reproductive responses of target
pests to climate change studied outdoors and indoors for
creating risk maps and forecasting potential areas of pest
outbreaks and impaired pollination services
influences on food security
CHIESA Project website
If you would like to know more about our
project... please visit:
http://chiesa.icipe.org
Thank you!