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Institutional Structured Products 25th February 2014 Agenda Who are Catley Lakeman Securities? What is a Structured Product? Key Categories of Structured Product Two case studies Costs / Liquidity How we support our clients Appendix 2 Who are Catley Lakeman Securities? 3 Who are Catley Lakeman Securities? What We Do Institutional sales, structuring, pricing, execution, servicing for: − Defined return and market participation structured products − Delta one, ETFs, ETPs, trackers and structured UCITS − Research, analysis, portfolio manager training − Portfolio hedging, options modeling − Legal, tax and regulatory process advice Business Split By Product Type 6% Autocallable 37% 8% Synthetic 8% 37% 12% Income 6% 5% 51% 32% Defined Return 51% Highlights − Est. August 2008 − Unparalleled experience − Exceptionally qualified team of eight − Leaders in institutional market for securitised product − Growing reputation for hedging advice and execution − £3bn originated and executed since August 2008 − £955mn originated and executed in financial year to July 2013 Option Hedging 32% Market Participation 12% Delta One 5% (Data to Q4 2013) 4 Where CLS sits… Institutional Investor Client Discretionary Portfolios 5 So it’s key to understand counterparty risk? Credit Default Swap (CDS) levels [basis points over LIBOR per annum] Credit Spreads since June-2008 - Trading Ranges 700 maximum 1360 high 600 current Series4 500 low 400 300 200 100 0 What we really care about is how stable the bond spread is! Source: Bloomberg, data as at 25-Feb-2014 6 How are Structured Products Put Together? 7 FIRST STEP Buy Zero Coupon Bond from Bank First step: buy Zero Coupon Bond from bank, it sits as Senior Unsecured Debt on the bank’s main Balance Sheet 5 years £1 to invest £1 5yr zerocoupon Bond/ Swap ZCB now worth £1* Cost: 88.31p Net Amount Remaining to Invest: 11.69p Note: the 11.69p could be spent on a guaranteed coupon stream, what would this be called? → A bank corporate bond *The ZCB is discounted at the respective interest swap rate for the term, plus the bank’s funding level, to return 100p at maturity 8 SECOND STEP Sell Knock-In Put The next step is to sell a knock-in put on an index the investor is looking for exposure to 5 years £1 to invest £1 5yr zerocoupon Bond/ Swap Cost: 88.31p Sell 5yr European Put Option on the FTSE Risk At 60% Strike (‘Knock-In Put’) ZCB now worth £1 Cost: 11.69p Knock-In Put: Has the FTSE fallen by more than 40%? Net Amount Remaining to Invest: 23.38p Note: all puts are expensive due to a skewed demand for downside protection in the derivative markets EG: how probable do models think it is that the FTSE will fall below 3000 points in 6 years? → 17% chance >>> Source: Structured Investments and Value – November 2012 for illustrative purposes 9 THIRD STEP Choose Upside Package The final step is to choose your upside package- for consistency we will stay with FTSE £1 to invest £1 5yr zerocoupon Bond/ Swap Cost: 88.31p Option package Providing Economic Return 5 years Sell 5yr European Put Option on the FTSE Risk At 60% Strike (‘Knock-In Put’) Option package Providing Economic Return ZCB now worth £1 Cost: 11.69p Fee of 1 – 1.5% Net Amount Remaining to spend on Upside Package: 21.88 – 22.38p Bullish? → Accelerator: geared participation in rising markets Bearish? → Synthetic/ Autocall: both provide a positive return in flat to falling markets* Somewhere in between? → Booster Knock-In Put: Has the FTSE fallen by more than 40%? *so long as markets haven’t fallen by more than the put, ie 40% down 10 Upside Package: Accelerators 11 UPSIDE PACKAGE Accelerators 22.88p left to5.5 spend • HSBC year Fixed Rate Bond Price of 1 FTSE call option today: 12.11p Therefore the investor can afford: 22.88/ 12.11p → 1.88 call options In other words: 188% participation in the FTSE over 5 years How do Accelerators fit into portfolios? These have been very popular this year, with clients bullish beginning of year view Not usually held for more than 1 to 2 years USE Gearing / Participation TYPE Uncapped EXAMPLE Accelerator / Supertracker SITS ALONGSIDE Large cap / core long only funds and ETFs 12 Eg: HSBC 603 US Accelerator 9 (167%) HSBC 603 US Accelerator (167%) Strike: 31-Jan-2014 Counterparty: HSBC Currency: USD Denominated Underlying: S&P 500 (1782 points) Maximum Term: 6 years Platform: EIS (subject to CGT under current tax rules) Upside: 167% participation (final year averaging) Downside (60% European Knock-In Put): if at maturity the S&P has fallen by more than 40% of the initial level (below 1069 points) at maturity, the structure will redeem paying the original capital minus 1% for every 1% the Index has fallen below the initial level 13 Performance of the US Accelerator Series (cumulative +58%) US Equity "Defined Return Security" cumulative Decision: How Bullish on US Equities? 160% S&P 500 PR Cumulative Performance 150% 140% (2) sold US Supertracker 2 for 118.41 cents Bought US Accelerator 5 with proceeds reinvested @ 100 cents S&P 500 TR (1) US Supertracker 2: bought 16-Feb-11 130% 120% 110% 100% Feb-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 90% Oct-12 Apr-13 Nov-13 (3) US Accelerator 5: current bid price of 133.8 cents >> overall cumulative performance of +58% versus a passive S&P TR investment return of +45% 80% The calculations above are based on gross reinvestment of proceeds. Average weighted entry/exit levels have been applied based on actual investor flows, we believe this to result in a conservative estimation of cumulative performance. Source: Bloomberg, data to 25-Feb-14 14 Where does it fit? USD Denominated Performance (TR) HSBC 476 6yr US Accelerator 5 (200%) EIS Neptune Investment Funds US Opps Legg Mason Funds US Equity JPMorgan American Investment Trust UBS US Equity Investment Funds Threadneedle Investment Funds American Select ISHARES S&P 500 S&P 500 Schroder QEP US Core Fund JPM US Equity Income Findlay Park American Fund M&G Investment Funds American Brown Advisory US Equity Growth Fund HSBC 533 US Accelerator 6 (159.5%) EIS Bloomberg Ticker 3 month 1 month Since Launch (22-Nov-2013) (23-Jan-2014) (22-Feb-2013) B92SVS9 4.04% 1.13% 34.38% CFNUSAA LN Equity 6.52% 1.37% 33.33% LMUSEAA LN Equity 3.54% -0.54% 28.35% JAM LN Equity 3.24% 1.30% 27.95% UBSUEAA LN Equity 4.94% -0.17% 27.91% TDNASGA LN Equity 4.88% -0.28% 27.68% SACC LN Equity 3.50% 1.62% 24.93% SPX Index 2.80% 1.24% 23.98% SCHRAMA LN Equity 1.64% -0.50% 23.33% HLIEX US Equity 1.01% 1.01% 22.99% FINDLPI ID 2.07% -0.96% 20.34% MGAMDAA LN Equity 2.63% -0.60% 20.15% BRAUSEB ID Equity 2.45% -0.74% 19.80% BCZM0S2 3.47% 1.11% n/a Source: Bloomberg, Financial Express, data to 25-Feb-14 15 Upside Package: Synthetics 16 UPSIDE PACKAGE Synthetics 22.18p left to5.5 spend • HSBC year Fixed Rate Bond Guaranteed coupons: Reverse Convertible Coupons contingent on an index being over a certain level: Digital Coupon contingent on an index being between a range: Range Trade / Range Accrual Note: all of the above can be structured to pay income How do Synthetics fit into portfolios? The other success story over the last year, beyond autocalls With the backdrop of falling rates, falling vol and tightening credit, in most cases these structures have outperformed the market USE Yield Enhancement Defined Return Selling Volatilty TYPE Synthetics EXAMPLE Range Accrual SITS ALONGSIDE ZDPs 17 UPSIDE PACKAGE Synthetics This shows the evolution of a live trade: HOW TO GET HIGHER YIELD MANAGER CONSIDERATIONS & DECISIONS RESULTING STRUCTURE HSBC 6y Fixed Rate Bond Yield : circa 2.9% Which underlying should the structure be linked to? FTSE Put capital risk HSBC 6y FTSE Reverse Convertible To what extent is the manager prepared to put capital at risk? Yield : circa 4.9% Soft protection at maturity at 4100 points. Put coupon at risk (via lower barrier) At what level should the lower barrier be? Coupon paid annually as long as the FTSE is over 4100 points. HSBC 6y FTSE Digital Yield : circa 5.5% At what level should the upper barrier be? 7% annual, accrued daily for every day the FTSE closes within the range of 3500 to 7500 points. Put coupon at risk (add upper barrier) Any additional considerations? HSBC 440 6y FTSE Range Accrual Yield : circa 7.00% In this instance the investors wanted semi-annual income, so the structure pas up to 3.5% semi-annually. *All pricing as at circa Feb-2014 18 HSBC 440 FTSE Daily Range Accrual (7.0%) 8500 8000 7500 Upper Barrier: 7500 points 7000 FTSE 100 6500 6000 Strike: 5800 points 5500 5000 4500 4000 Lower Barrier: 3500 points 3500 3000 +0 years Soft Protection at Maturity: 3500 points +1 year +2 years +3 years +4 years +5 years +6 years Coupon Payments 8% 6% Potential Coupon: 7% 4% HSBC Bond Coupon: 3.0% 2% 0% +0 years +1 year 7% coupon paid as FTSE stayed between barriers for whole year +2 years +3 years +4 years +5 years +6 years 1.75% coupon paid as FTSE exceeded the upper barrier for 75% of the year 7% coupon paid as FTSE stayed between barriers for whole year 3% coupon paid as FTSE fell below the lower barrier for 50% of the year 2.3% coupon paid as FTSE fell below the lower barrier for 33% of the year 7% coupon paid as S&P 500 stayed between barriers for whole year *All pricing as at circa early Nov-12 19 Eg: HSBC 363 FTSE Daily Range Accrual (8.0%) HSBC 363 FTSE Daily Range Accrual (8.0%) Strike: 9-Jan-11 Counterparty: HSBC Currency: GBP Denominated Underlying: FTSE 100 (5460.38 points) Maximum Term: 6 years Platform: EIS (subject to CGT under current tax rules) Upside: 8% annual coupon accrued daily, for every day the FTSE closes between 55% and 150% of the initial level ( 3003.21 to 8190.57 points) Downside (55% European Knock-In Put): if at maturity the FTSE has fallen by more than 45% of the initial level (below 3003.21 points) , the structure will redeem paying the original capital minus 1% for every 1% the Index has fallen below the initial level 20 Mark-to-Market 135.00% FTSE 100 Index Performance [Price] 125.00% HSBC 363 Performance 115.00% Total return of index = 135.27% (dividend reinvestment assuming Net of Corporate Tax rate 20%) 105.00% 95.00% Structure performance to date: 27.02% FTSE TR performance to date: 35.27% Structure annualised volatility: 5.31% 85.00% FTSE 100 annualised volatility: 13.54% 75.00% Nov-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Source: Bloomberg, data as at 25-Feb-14 Jan-14 21 Sterling Interest Rates Sterling Interest Rates Grinding lower, 10% autocall coupon equates to 15% in 2007 (ceteris paribus) GBP Swap Rates 6.00 5.00 Swap Rate (%) 4.00 3.00 5 year currently 1.97% 2.00 1.00 2 year currently 0.98% 0.00 Nov-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 Source: Bloomberg (25-Feb-2014) 22 Upside Package: Autocalls 23 UPSIDE PACKAGE Autocalls 22.18p left to5.5 spend • HSBC year Fixed Rate Bond Snowballing annual coupon which can redeem early if the index is over a certain level These barriers typically fall each year Note: Synthetics have a tenor of 6 years, Autocalls have an expected life of roughly 2 years. → Rates concern? How do Autocalls fit into portfolios? Performance of Defensive Autocalls is predictable and defined Bull market: Underperform Bear market: Likely to outperform Flattish market: Outperform significantly USE Yield Enhancement Defined Return Selling Volatilty TYPE Autocalls EXAMPLE Defensive Autocall SITS ALONGSIDE Equity income finds and absolute return funds 24 100% 1st anniversary Autocall observation coupon of 8% 100% Autocall continues to 2nd anniversary 60% 2nd anniversary Autocall observation coupon of 16% 95% Autocall continues to 3rd anniversary 3rd anniversary 4th anniversary 5th anniversary 6th anniversary Autocall observation coupon of 24% Autocall observation coupon of 32% Autocall observation coupon of 40% Autocall observation coupon of 48% 90% Autocall continues to 4th anniversary 85% Autocall continues to 5th anniversary 80% Autocall continues to 6th anniversary 75% Autocall redeems at 100p Capital protection barrier triggered Capital Loss Level of Index Capital Protected Payoff Example 0% 25 Current Yields 9 8 YIeld % 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Defensive (5% High yield bond FTSE 12 month UK Gov't bonds 2 2 year Sterling dropper) Dual ETF (Bank of Dividend Yield year (£ Gilts) Swaps Autocall A+ America Merrill issuer(FTSE / Lynch Global S&P) (simple per High Yield BB-B) annum) High Grade UK Gov't bonds 6 6 year Sterling credit (£ Nonyear (£ Gilts) Swaps Gilts AAA 3-5) RWANDA 10 Year (6 ⅝ 05/02/23) COSTA RICA 12 Year (COSTAR 4 ⅜ 04/30/25 ) Source: Data as at 5-Feb-14 26 Eg: HSBC 260 FTSE Defensive Autocall (10%) HSBC 260 FTSE Defensive Autocall (10%) EIS Strike: Counterparty: Currency: Underlying: Maximum Term: Platform: Upside: Autocall Barriers: Downside (50% American Knock-In Put): 7-Oct-10 HSBC GBP Denominated FTSE 100 (5662.13 points) 6 years EIS (subject to CGT under current tax rules) Defensive autocall, 10% snowballing annual coupon Year 1: 100% barrier 110% payoff Year 2: 100% barrier 120% payoff Year 3: 100% barrier 130% payoff Year 4: 95% barrier 140% payoff Year 5: 90% barrier 150% payoff Year 6: 85% barrier 160% payoff should the structure not autocall on any of the 6 anniversaries, and the FTSE has fallen by more than 50% at any close over the life, the structure will redeem paying the original capital minus 1% for every 1% the Index had fallen below strike level 27 Mark-to-Market 25 20 15 FTSE 100 Total Return Annualised Volatility over the life of the trade: Structure outperformance to date: 9.77% HSBC 260: 14.51% FTSE 100: 19.93% Structure annualised volatility: 14.51% HSBC 260 FTSE Defensive FTSE 100 annualised volatility: 19.93% 9.77% Outperformance over the Underlying: 10 5 0 Oct-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 -5 -10 Total return of index = +10.23% (dividend reinvestment assuming Net of Corporate Tax rate 20%) -15 28 Performance • Called in Year 2 (8th October 2012), with the FTSE at 5841.74 points • Over the two years since launch, the structure doubled the return of the market with less volatility Period Range: 7-Oct-10 to 8-Oct-12 Total Return Performance 360 Day Volatility Structure (HSBC 260 Def Ac) 20.00% 14.51% BlackRock UK Special Situations 16.70% 19.92% Threadneedle UK Equity Income 15.79% 17.49% Underlying (FTSE 100) 10.23% 19.93% M&G Recovery 11.14% 22.56% Standard Life Investment GARS 7.62% 4.72% Jupiter Absolute Return 4.51% 5.51% Source: A selection of popular UK funds, all rated AAA/AA by Citywire 29 Overview 30 Categories of Structured Products AUTOCALLS Autocalls Defensive Autocalls Worst-Of Autocalls Sit alongside: Equity income funds and absolute return funds SYNTHETICS Synthetic Zeros Digitals Range Trades Range Accruals Sit alongside: ZDPs Reverse Convertibles Digitals Range Trades High Income Range Accruals Inflation Plus Sit alongside: Income funds SELLING VOLATILITY DEFINED RETURN YIELD ENHANCEMENT INCOME UNCAPPED Accelerators Supertrackers PARTICIPATION CAPPED ACCESS TO A PARTICULAR UNDERLYING Sit alongside: Large cap / core long only funds and ETFs Call Spreads Usually participation in the form of an Accelerator, (but not always) Sit alongside: Other vehicles accessing the same underlying asset 31 Appendix 32 Full Intra Day Secondary Market Liquidity Zero Coupon Bond Option Package Calls and put options are, logically, derivatives of their underlying risk assets Therefore, the options market can only become illiquid at some point after the underlying market becomes illiquid A notional swap from the bank’s Treasury Department This is cancellable at any point They are ultimately notional- do not need to be sold, hedged or replaced. £1 5yr zerocoupon Bond/ Swap Cost: 89.84p Option package Providing Economic Return Sell 5yr European Put Option on the FTSE Risk At 60% Strike (‘Knock-In Put’) Cost: 13.52p Past Exceptions Close Brothers & ELDerS- collateralised with British, Irish and some Icelandic banks and building societies. Retail Structured Product market. 33 FTSE 100 Futures Daily Volume 7 6 Trading Volume £ BIL 5 4 3 Trading in the top ten traded UK stocks is 29% of FTSE 100 futures volume Current 1 month ago 2 1 year ago 1 0 Source: Weekly average data, as at 01-Oct-13 34 The Operational Process Investment Manager checks price with Catley Lakeman (via phone or Catley Lakeman website) Investment Manager places dealing instruction to Dealer at Stockbroker Dealer sends request to Catley Lakeman Catley Lakeman sends email to Stockbroker Dealer and Bank Structured Products Desk with price and notional Dealer confirms Bank confirms and executes Note: Stockbroker faces the bank directly, they do not face Catley Lakeman. 35 DISCLAIMER Disclaimer This is a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition of dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. The information in this document is derived from sources believed to be reliable but which have not been independently verified. Any prices included within this communication are for indicative purposes only. Catley Lakeman Securities makes no guarantee of its accuracy and completeness and is not responsible for errors of transmission of factual or analytical data, nor is it liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. All charts and graphs are from publicly available sources or proprietary data. The opinions in this document constitute the present judgment of Catley Lakeman Securities, which is subject to change without notice. This document is neither an offer to sell, purchase or subscribe for any investment nor a solicitation of such an offer. This document is intended for the use of institutional and professional customers and is not intended for the use of private customers. This document is not intended for distribution in the United States of America or to US persons. This document is intended to be distributed in its entirety. No consideration has been given to the particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. Catley Lakeman Securities is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Firm FSA Reference No. 484826. Catley Lakeman Securities is the trading name of Catley Lakeman LLP. Registered Office: One Eleven Edmund Street, Birmingham. B3 2HJ. Registration Number: OC336585 36