Download Climate chance and energy

Climate Change and
Energy
Updated PowerPoint show about climate change
and energy sector
1
Research results of climate
change
2
Global warming is due to
strengthened greenhouse effect
The Earth has a natural temperature
control system. Certain atmospheric
gases are critical to this system and
are known as greenhouse gases. On
average, about one third of the solar
radiation that hits the earth is
reflected back to space. The Earth's
surface becomes warm and as a
result emits infrared radiation. The
greenhouse gases trap the infrared
radiation, thus warming the
atmosphere. Naturally occurring
greenhouse gases create a natural
greenhouse effect. However, human
activities are causing greenhouse
gas levels in the atmosphere to
increase.
Greenhouse effect
Source: National Geographic
3
Earth’s energy budget
Source: Nasa, Atmospheric Science Data Center
4
Strengthening of greenhouse effect is due to
increase of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere
The six greenhouse gases under the Kyoto Protocol:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Carbon dioxide or CO2
Methane or CH4
Nitrous oxide or N2O
Perfluorocarbons or PFC compounds
Hydrofluorocarbons or HFC compounds
Sulphur hexafluoride or SF6
Other greenhouse gases:
• Ozone or O3
• Bromine compounds or halogens, e.g. CF3Br
• Freons or chlorofluorocarbons or CFC:s
• Water vapour or H2O (g)
• Global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases
have increased markedly as a result of human activities!
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
5
Different greenhouse gases have
different meaning to global warming
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
6
Meaning of carbon dioxide to global
warming
• Carbon dioxide is the most important
anthropogenic greenhouse gas.
– The primary source of the increased
atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide
results from fossil fuel use in power and heat
production as well as transport.
– The change of land use provides another
significant but smaller contribution.
– The atmospheric concentration of carbon
dioxide exceeds by far the natural range over
the last 650,000 years.
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
7
Sources of EU-27 greenhouse gas
emissions
Kotitaloudet,
Households
palvelut
and
SMEsja
Muut
Other
44%
%
Agriculture
Maanviljely
10 %
%
10
kauppa
17
%
17 %
Transport
Liikenne
21%%
21
Energiasektori
Power sector
28 %
%
28
Lähde:
EEA
Source:
EEA
Idustry
Teollisuus
Industry
20 %
%
20
8
The global atmospheric
concentration of greenhouse gases
has increased
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
9
Atmospheric concentration of
greenhouse gases correlates with
temperature
10
According to researches earth’s
mean temperature has risen in the
20th and the 21st century
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
11
According to measurements
the temperature is rising
Source: Climatic Research Unit
12
Different reconstructions of mean temperature have
been published by researchers
13
Sea level is rising
The red curve
shows
reconstructed
sea level fields
since 1870.
Annual averages of the global mean sea level (mm).
The blue curve
shows coastal
tide
gauge
measurements
since 1950.
The black curve
is based
on satellite
altimetry.
Source: IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report
14
Change in volume of glaciers
Cumulative Change in
Volume of Arctic
Glaciers
since 1960
15
The average temperature is rising but
our choices make a difference
Multi-model
averages and
assessed
ranges for
surface
warming
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
16
Effects of climate change
Phenomenon and direction
of trend
Likelihood that trend
occurred in late 20th
century (typically post
1960)
Warmer and fewer cold
days
Very likely
and nights over most land
areas
Warmer and more frequent
hot days and nights over
Very likely
most land areas
Warm spells / heat waves.
Frequency increases over
Likely
most land areas
Heavy precipitation events.
Frequency (or proportion of
total rainfall from heavy
Likely
falls)
increases over most areas
Area affected by droughts Likely in many regions
increases
since 1970s
Intense tropical cyclone
Likely in some regions
activity increases
since 1970
Increased incidence of
extreme high sea level
(excludes tsunamis)
Likely
Likelihood of a
human
contribution to
observed
trend b
Likelihood of future
trends based on
projections for 21st
century
Likely
Virtually certain
Likely (nights)
Virtually certain
More likely than not
More likely than not
More likely than not
Very likely
Very likely
Likely
More likely than not
Likely
More likely than not
Likely
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
17
Examples of major projected impacts on
agriculture, forestry and ecosystems
Virtually certain (>99%) is, that
• Increased yields in colder environments; decreased
yields in warmer environments
• Increased insect outbreaks
Very likely (90-99%) is, that
• Increased danger of wildfire.
• Damage to crops, soil erosion and inability to
cultivate land due to heavy precipitation events
Likely (66-90%) is, that
• Intense tropical cyclone activity increases damage to
trees, crops and coral reefs
• Salinisation of freshwater systems due to high sea
level
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
18
Examples of major projected impacts on
water resources
Virtually certain (>99%) is, that
• Effects on water resources relying on snow melt
and some water supplies
Very likely (90-99%) is, that
• Water quality problems, e.g., algal blooms
• Adverse effects on quality of surface and
groundwater; contamination of water supply;
water scarcity may be relieved
Likely (66-90%) is, that
• More widespread water stress
• Power outages causing disruption of public water
supply
• Decreased freshwater availability due to saltwater
intrusion
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
19
Examples of major projected impacts on
human health
Virtually certain (>99%) is, that
• Reduced human mortality from decreased cold
exposure
Very likely (90-99%) is, that
• Increased risk of heat-related mortality
• Increased risk of deaths, injuries and infectious,
respiratory and skin diseases
Likely (66-90%) is, that
• Increased risk of malnutrition and water- and
food borne diseases
• Intense tropical cyclone activity and floods
increase risk of deaths, injuries and diseases
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
20
Examples of major projected
impacts on industry, settlement and
society 1/2
Virtually certain (>99%) is, that
• Reduced energy demand for heating
• Increased demand for cooling
• Declining air quality in cities
• Reduced disruption to transport due to
snow and ice
• Effects on winter tourism
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
21
Examples of major projected impacts on
industry, settlement and society 2/2
Very likely (90-99%) is, that
• Reduction in quality of life for people in warm
areas without appropriate housing
• Disruption of settlements, commerce, transport
and societies due to flooding
Likely (66-90%) is, that
• Water shortages for settlements, industry and
societies
• Disruption by flood and high winds
• Costs of coastal protection versus costs of landuse relocation; potential for movement of
populations and infrastructure
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
22
Impacts of climate change in
Finland
• Climate will warm up in the Nordic countries and
Arctic region especially in winter
– Winter season will become shorter and days
with snow cover will became less usual
– Period of growth will become longer
• Precipitation will increase specially in winter, but
not necessarily in summer
– Frequency of heavy precipitation events
increases in every season
• Coniferous forest zone moves north
Source: www.ilmastonmuutos.info, www.ilmasto.org
23
Energy production and consumption
24
Total energy consumption has
increased substantially in Finland
40 000
35 000
Energy consumption in Finland 1976-2006
30 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
ktoe
25 000
Source: Statistics Finland
*Tähän diaan on liitettynä muistiinpanoja
25
Electricity consumption has
increased even more than energy
consumption
TWh
Electricity consumption in Finland 1930-2007
120
Stat.
100
Forecast
80
60
40
20
1930
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
2000 2010 2020 2030
Source: Finnish Energy Industries, Energy Year 2007
26
Final energy consumption by
sectors in Finland 2006
Others
13 %
Industry
51 %
Space heating
20 %
Source: Statistics Finland
Transport
16 %
27
Electricity consumption by sector
in Finland 2007 (90,3 TWh)
Industry
53,0 %
Losses
3,6 %
Housing and
agriculture
15,4 %
Electric heating
10,0 %
Service
18,0 %
Source: Finnish Energy Industries, Energy Year 2007
28
Electricity supply by energy
sources in Finland 2007
(90,3 TWh) Net imports
Hydro power
13,9 %
Oil
0,4 %
15,5 %
Wind power
0,2 %
Peat
7,3 %
Coal
14,8 %
Bio fuel
10,9 %
Waste fuels
0,7 %
Natural gas
11,4 %
Source: Finnish Energy Industries, Energy Year 2007
Nuclear power
24,9 %
29
Net supplies of electricity in
Finland 2007 (90,3 TWh)
Hydro power
15,5 %
Wind power
0,2 %
Nuclear power
24,9 %
Net imports
13,9 %
Condense etc
16,1 %
Source: Finnish Energy Industries, Energy Year 2007
Co-generation
district heating
16,1 %
Co-generation
(CHP), Industry
13,3 %
30
Market share of space heating
in Finland
2006
Market share
of space heating, year 2006
Source: Statistics Finland
district heat
48,3 %
electricity
17,5 %
light fuel oil
14,0 %
other
8,8 %
wood
11,4 %
31
Fuel consumption in production of
district heat and CHP in Finland 2007
wood, wood
residues
11,0 %
peat
20,8 %
others
3,8 %
fuel oil
4,6 %
natural gas
33,9 %
coal
25,9 %
fuel energy
54,8 TWh
32
Fuel consumption in production of
district heat and CHP in Finland
1976-2007
100 %
other
wood
peat
80 %
60 %
natural gas
coal
40 %
20 %
oil
0%
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
33
Fuel shares of district heating and CHP in
different areas of Finland year 2007
Ahvenanmaa
Lappi
Kainuu
Pohjois-Pohjanmaa
Pohjanmaa
Etelä-Pohjanmaa
Keski-Pohjanmaa
Keski-Suomi
Pohjois-Karjala
Pohjois-Savo
Etelä-Savo
Etelä-Karjala
Kymenlaakso
Päijät-Häme
Pirkanmaa
Kanta-Häme
Satakunta
Varsinais-Suomi
Itä-Uusimaa
Uusimaa
0%
10 %
20 %
Natural gas
30 %
Coal
40 %
50 %
Peat
60 %
Wood
70 %
80 %
Fuel oil
90 %
100 %
Others
34
Electricity supply in the Nordic
countries 2006
3%
27 %
73 %
10 TWh
24 %
1%
1%
51 %
22 %
14 %
122 TWh
98 %
14 %
58 %
1%
9%
46 %
28 %
20062006
ThePohjoismaat
Nordic countries
44 %
79 TWh
Source: Nordel
394 TWh
Lähde: Nordel Annual Report 2006
43 TWh
86 %
Vesivoima
Hydro power
140 TWh
Tuulivoima
ja geothermal
geoterminen
Wind and
power
Thermal power
Lämpövoima
power
Nuclear
Ydinvoima
35
Electricity consumption in the
Nordic countries 2006
10 %
4% 5%
10 %
3%
7%
4%
1%
71 %
10 TWh
19 %
16 %
8%
27 %
23 %
1%
44 %
56 %
30 %
20 %
119 TWh
41 %
4%
90 TWh
8%
6%
28 %
19 %
8%
27 %
36 TWh
405 TWh
31 %
41 %
28 %
146 TWh
Asuminen
Housing
Teollisuus
(sis. energiasektorin)
Industry
(including
energy sector)
Palvelut
Service
Maataloustuotanto ym.
Agriculture
Verkostohäviöt
Losses
Lähde: Nordel
Source:
Nordel Annual
Annual Report
Report 2006
2006
36
Total gross electricity generation
in Europe 2006
Germany
France
UK
Italy
Spain
Turkey
Poland
Sweden
Norway
Netherlands
Belgium
Czech Republic
Finland
Austria
Romania
Greece
Switzerland
Portugal
Bulgaria
Denmark
Hungary
Slovakia
Ireland
Slovenia
Lithuania
Croatia
Iceland
Estonia
Latvia
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Malta
0
100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000
GWh
Source: Eurostat
37
Gross electricity generation by
Fuel – EU-27 2005
* Pumped Storage Plants and Other Power Stations
Source: Eurostat, European Commission
38
Final energy consumption in
Europe 2006
Germany
France
UK
Italy
Spain
Turkey
Poland
Netherlands
Belgium
Sweden
Austria
Finland
Czech
Romania
Switzerland
Greece
Portugal
Norway
Hungary
Denmark
Ireland
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Croatia
Slovenia
Lithuania
Luxembour
Latvia
Estonia
Iceland
Cyprus
Malta
0
50000
100000
150000
(ktoe)
200000
250000
Source: Eurostat
39
Final energy consumption by fuel EU27 2005
Source: Eurostat, European Commission
40
Final energy intensity in Europe
2006 per capita
Luxembourg
Iceland
Finland
Norway
Sweden
Belgium
Austria
Netherlands
Ireland
Denmark
Germany
Czech Republic
France
UK
Slovenia
Cyprus
Italy
Spain
Estonia
Slovakia
Greece
Latvia
Hungary
Portugal
Poland
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Malta
Romania
Turkey
0
2
4
6
(toe per inhabitant)
8
10
12
Source: EEA, Eurostat
41
Final energy consumption by
sector – EU-27 2005
Source: Eurostat
42
Electricity consumption by sector
EU-27 2005
Industry
Teollisuus
41%
41
%
Kotitaloudet
Households,
ja palvelut
trades,
56 %
services,
etc.
56 %
Transport
Liikenne
3 3%
%
Lähde:
Source: Eurostat
Eurostat
43
Global total primary energy supply
is increasing
Source: EEA
**Asia excludes China.
44
Regional shares of world’s total
primary energy supply 2005
**Asia excludes China.
Source: EEA
45
Use of all fuels has increased
globally
Source: EEA
46
Fuel shares of world’s total
primary energy supply
Source: EEA
47
Increasing of electricity generation
has been even faster than world’s
total primary energy supply
**Other includes geothermal, solar, wind, combustible renewables & waste.
Source: EEA
48
Fuel shares of
electricity generation 2005
Source: EEA
**Other includes geothermal, solar, wind, combustible renewables & waste.
49
Evolution from 1971 to 2005 of
world’s electricity generation by
regions (TWh)
Source: EEA
**Asia excludes China.
50
World’s electricity generation by
regions in 2005
**Asia excludes China.
Source: EEA
51
Remaining natural resources
Over 2000 year
Years of production left
Very difficult to
utilize
Difficult to utilize
Estimated additional
resources
Known and identified
resources
Consumption per year,
1000 Mtoe
Oil
Gas
Coal
Uranium
Source:
Energia
Suomessa
2004
Lähde:
VTT,VTT,
Energia
suomessa
2004
52
Renewable Energy
53
Renewable energy sources
• Water
• Biomass
• Wind
• Sunlight
• Geothermal heat
Renewable energy technologies are directly or
indirectly powered by the sun – as well as fossil
fuels.
54
Renewable energy covered more
than a fourth of the electricity
supply in Finland 2007
Coal
14,8 %
Oil
0,4 %
Net imports
13,9 %
Biofuel
10,9 %
Natural gas
11,4 %
Nuclear power
24,9 %
Wind power
0,2 %
Renewable
energy
26,6 %
Peat
7,3 %
Waste fuels
0,7 %
Hydro power
15,5 %
Source: Finnish Energy Industries, Energy Year 2007
55
Renewable energy covered
almost a fourth of the energy
consumption in Finland 2007
Net Imports of
Electricity
3,1 %
Nuclear
Wood-based fuels
Peat
16,9 %
20,7 %
7,3 %
Natural gas
10,5 %
Renewable
24,2 %
Coal
13,2 %
Hydro and Wind
Power
Oil
Energy
Industries,
Energy Year 2007
Source:
Statistics
Finland
3,5 %
24,8 % Source: Finnish
56
6,5
6,0
Solar
5,5
5,0
Wind
4,5
4,0
3,5
3,0
Geothe
rmal
2,5
Hydro
2,0
1,5
Biomas
s and
waste
1,0
0,5
Source: EEA, Eurostat.
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
0,0
1990
Shares in primary energy consumption (%)
The share of renewable energy
sources in primary energy
consumption increased slowly in the
7,0
EU-27
57
Renewable energy sources in the
EU countries 2005
%
Source: Statistics Finland
58
Peat is a slowly renewable
biomass fuel
• Growth of peat is bigger than use in
Finland
• In Finland peat is classified as a slowly
renewable biomass fuel, because the
average regrowth rate of a single peat bog
is 2000-3000 years.
• Peat Industry utilizes less than one per
cent of peat bogs in Finland. Energy
industry utilizes 90% of harvested peat.
• Twenty-six percent of the land area of
Finland is peat bog of some sort
59
Green house gases
60
EU-27 green house gas
emissions in 2005
Germany
United
Italy
France
Spain
Poland
Netherlands
Romania
Czech
Belgium
Greece
Austria
Portugal
Hungary
Ireland
Bulgaria
Finland
Sweden
Denmark
Slovakia
Lithuania
Estonia
Slovenia
Luxembour
Latvia
Cyprus
Malta
0
200
400
600
(Mt CO2 ekv.)
800
1000
1200
Source: EEA
61
Carbon dioxide intensity in power
generation in some European
countries in 2003
Poland
Hungary
Romania
UK
Czech
Denmark
Germany
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Belgium
Finland
Latvia
Annual
variation of
emissions in
Finland
Lithuania
Sweden
Norway
0
200
400
600
g(CO2)/kWh
800
1000
1200
Source: Statistics Finland
62
Greenhouse gas emissions in the
EU 1990-2005
6000
EU-27 including
sisältäenlandmaankäytön
ja
use change and
metsityksen
forestry
EU-27
land-use
Eu-27 excluding
ilman maankäyttöä
ja metsitystä
change
and forestry
4000
3000
EU-15 including
sisältäenlandmaankäytön
ja
use change and
metsityksen
forestry
EU-15
maankäyttöä
EU-15 ilman
excluding
land-use
ja
metsitystä
change
and forestry
2000
1000
Sisältää Kioton
pöytäkirjassa
mainitut
kuusi
Including
the six
greenhouse
gases
kasvihuonekaasua.
under the Kyoto Protocol
Year
vuosi
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
0
1990
Mtekv.
eq. CO2
Mt
CO2
5000
Lähde: EEA
Source:
EEA
63
Finnish greenhouse gas emissions
1990–2006 and the emissions
target
Including the
six
greenhouse
gases under
the Kyoto
Protocol
Emission trading sector,
total
CO2 from combustion, nonemission trading sector
Other GHGs than CO2 from
combustion
Finland‘s target Kyoto &
EU-burden sharing
Source: Finland’s National Allocation Plan for Emissions Allowances
for the trading period 2008–2012
64
Greenhouse gas emissions by
source in Finland in 2006
Source: Statistics Finland
65
Sources of EU-27 greenhouse gas
emissions
Kotitaloudet,
Households
palvelut
and
SMEsja
Muut
Other
44%
%
Agriculture
Maanviljely
10 %
%
10
kauppa
17
%
17 %
Transport
Liikenne
21%%
21
Energiasektori
Power sector
28 %
%
28
Lähde:
EEA
Source:
EEA
Idustry
Teollisuus
20 %
%
20
66
Estimated green house gas emissions
in Finland 2010 and 2025
14 %
84,6MtCO2MtCO284,6
eq./year
ekv./vuosi
34 %
6%
6%
34 %
2%
4%
16 %
16 %
2010
14 %
84,3
84,3 MtCO2MtCO2eq./year
ekv./vuosi
26 %
2025
28 %
Sähkö
Electricity
ja kaukolämpö
and district heating
Industry
Teollisuusprosessit
ja teollisuuden energia
Liikenne
Transport
Heating
Lämmitys
Muut
Othertoimialat
sectors
Green
house
gases excluding CO2
Muut
kuin
CO2-päästöt
Source: Finland’s National
Lähde: Suomen päästöoikeuksien
Allocation Plan for Emissions
jakosuunnitelma vuosille 2008Allowances for the trading period
2012
2008–2012
67
Evolution from 1971 to 2005 of
world’s CO2 emissions by fuel
Mt of
CO2
*** Other includes industrial waste and non-renewable municipal waste.
Source: IEA
68
World’s CO2 emissions by fuel shares in 2005
Source: IEA
69
Evolution from 1971 to 2005 of
world’s CO2 emissions by region
Mt of
CO2
*** Asia excludes China.
Source: IEA
70
World’s regional shares of CO2
emission in 2005
*** Asia excludes China.
Source: IEA
71
CO2 emissions avoided by utilization of
Combined Heat and Power production
million t CO2
25
20
savings due
to CHP
15
10
CO2-emissions in the
production of district
heat and cogenerated
electricity
5
0
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
72
CO2 emissions avoided by
renewable and nuclear power
70
60
50
MtCO2
Wind Power
Bioenergy
40
Hydro Power
30
20
Nuclear Power
10
Actual Emissions
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 20002001 2002 2003 2004
73
Source: Finnish Energy Industries
Climate treaties and –policy
74
United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change
• The United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC or FCCC) is an international
environmental treaty produced at the United Nations
Conference on Environment and Development
(UNCED), informally known as the Earth Summit,
held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992.
• Its’ stated objective is to achieve stabilization of
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at
a low enough level to prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
• UNFCCC members that ratify this treaty admit
officially that climate change is a serious problem.
• 192 nations have signed the UNFCCC.
Source: UNFCCC
75
*Tähän diaan on liitettynä muistiinpanoja
Kyoto Protocol 1/2
• The Kyoto Protocol is the principal update of UNFCCC
• Notable international agreement
– 178 countries have ratified Kyoto Protocol
• Countries that ratify this protocol commit to reducing
their emissions of carbon dioxide and five other
greenhouse gases
– CO2, N2O, CH4, SF6, HFC, PFC
– carbon dioxide is primary target
• 2008-2012 developed countries have to reduce their
greenhouse gas emissions by a collective average of
5% below their 1990 levels
• EU will reduce 8 %.
– Reduction has been shared between EU countries
by burden sharing agreement
Lähde: UNFCCC
76
Kyoto Protocol 2/2
• Emission reduce targets for 38 countries, e.g.
– EU-15 - 8 % (Burden Sharing Agreement)
– USA - 7 % (has not ratified)
– Japan and Canada - 6 %
– Australia + 8 % (has not ratified)
– Russia, Ukraine, New Zealand 0 %
– Eastern European transition economy countries (not
all) - 8 %; incl. 8 new EU countries
• Eastern European countries have to do nothing. Emission
are already well below their levels
• Many countries haven’t got limits e.g.
– Oil countries in the Middle-East, China, India, SouthAmerica, Asian developing industrial countries, SouthAfrica,…
– The idea was that those countries will start reducing
their emissions in the future
Source: UNFCCC
77
Burden sharing in EU-15
• EU shared targets between member
states.
• Finland have to reduce emissions to
same level as 1990.
• Percentages don’t tell how
challenging the target is.
– The target for Finland is
estimated as one of the most
expensive in many analyses
• Finland’s emissions
– 1990 ca. 71 MtCO2-eq.
– 2008-2012 on average ca. 83
MtCO2-eq.
Luxembourg
German
Denmark
Austria
UK
Belgium
Italy
Netherlands
Finland
France
Sweden
Irland
Spain
Greece
Portugal
-28 %
-21 %
-21 %
-13 %
-12,50 %
-8 %
-7 %
-6 %
0%
0%
4%
13 %
15 %
25 %
27
%
78
Burden sharing in Finnish NAP2
Finland´s need to
reduce emissions from
WM 2008-2012
- 12,2 MtCO2/a +
Governmental use
of Kyoto
mechanisms
2,4 MtCO2/a
- 2 MtCO2/a*
Emissions trading
sector
- 12,1 MtCO2/a
-18 %
Industry
- 1,5 MtCO2/a
-7%
Sectors outside
emissions trading
- 1 MtCO2/a
-3%
Electricity and DH
- 10,6 MtCO2/a
- 41 %
New entrants reserve
1,4 MtCO2/a
* EU Comission required
Finland to reduce the amount
of emission allowances by 2
MtCO2/a
79
The EU Emission Trading System 1/2
• The EU Emission Trading System started 2005
• Aim is reduce green house gas emissions and reach
Kyoto target.
• Companies that are in emission trading system are
bound to:
– apply for a permission to green house gas
emissions
– track and validate the actual emissions in
accordance with the relevant assigned amount
– retire the allowances after the end of each year
• Member states set a quota for GHG emissions
– the total amount of allowances is less than the
amount that would have been emitted under a
business-as-usual scenario.
80
The EU Emission Trading System 2/2
• The second phase (2008-12) expands the scope
significantly:
– emission allowances available 200 MtCO2/year
less than 2005-2007
– companies will reduce emissions or buy emission
allowances
– total emissions will reduce
– Finland has emission allowances 16 % (8 Mt
CO2/year ) less than 2005
– Reduction has been allocated mainly to power and
district heating production.
81
Emission trade sectors
• Energy Industry
– over 20 MW (thermal) power plants, oil refineries and coke
furnaces
– under 20 MW power plants for district heating if in same
network is one or more over 20 MW power plant in Finland
– Excluding incineration of municipal and hazardous waste
• Steel Industry
– roasting and sintering units of metallic minerals
– iron and steel production and founding if production capacity
is over 2,5 t/h
• Construction Industry
– Production of cement, lime, glass, fiberglass, bricks,
porcelain and burned stone products.
• Paper and Forrest Industry
– Production of pulp, paper and board if production capacity is
over 20 t/h
82
Scope of emission trading
• Emission trading covers ca. 60 % greenhouse
gas emissions of the EU.
– 500 Energy and Industry plants in Finland
– 12 000 plant in the EU
• Possibly enlarging the scope of the scheme to
new sectors, including aviation,
petrochemicals, ammonia and the aluminum
sector, as well to two new gases (nitrous oxide
and perfluorocarbons)
• All 27 countries of the EU are in emission
trading
83
Emission trading affects fuel prices
and competitiveness
Fuel
Polttoaine
Coal
kivihiili
turve
Peat
puu
Wood
maakaasu
Gas
raskas
Heavy
fuelpö
oil
CO2-päästö
CO2
emission/MWh
t/MWh
0,334
0,378
0
0,201
0,276
Nykyinen
Present
price
veroton
hinta
excl. taxes
€/MWh
6-8
7-8
10-15
17-21
20-25
Extra
cost 5 Lisäkust.
Extra cost 50
Extra cost 20
Lisäkust.
20 Lisäkust.
50
€/MWh
1,67
1,89
0
1,005
1,38
€/MWh
6,68
7,56
0
4,02
5,52
€/MWh
16,7
18,9
0
10,05
13,8
Tilastokeskus
Source:Lähde:
Statistics
Finnland
84
Purpose of the emission trading
system is to affect demand and
supply through CO2 price
• Emission free and low emission energy sources will
gain competitive edge
– enhance investments and increase utilization
factors
– One funding source for new investments is the
emission allowances of high CO2 emission
energy sources
• Changes in product prices effect the demand
• Competition on the market aims to minimize price
increase
The goal is to reduce green house gas
emissions in a cost-effective way
85
Emission trading and Kyoton mechanisms
Finland’s emission ceiling
2008-2012 (ca. 71
MtCO2-ekv/a without
Kyoto mechanisms and
EU ETS)
Installations in EU
ETS
”Additional”
emission allowances
through Kyoto
mechanisms by the
state
(JI, CDM, Global
ETS)
CO2 emissions from other
sectors and other GHG
ca. 45 % of emissions
ca. 55 % of emissions
Additional emission
allowances through
EU ETS
Additional emission
allowances through
Kyoto mechanisms
86
Climate Policy - Responsibilities 2008-2012
Each EU Member State has
own emission quota
UK
KYOTO-TARGET
FI
FR
EU-ETS
Each MS makes a
national allocation plan
Emissions outside
ETS
PL
Total Amount of EU
Emission allowances
Emissions within
ETS
DE
National allocation
plan for industrial
plants
87
Link directive brings to the carbon market
emission reductions though so called Kyotomechanisms
• Link directive published 13.11.2004, In Finland
implemented by changing the emission trading
law 12.1.2007
• Makes it possible to utilize emission reduction
executed outside EU in EU’s ETS
– Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)-projects executed
in developing countries provide CER-units, which have
been used since 2005
– Joint Implementation (JI) -projects executed in
industrial countries provide ERU-units, which have been
used since 2008
• Limits the price increase of emission allowances in
the EU
• Makes the carbon market global
88
Flexibility mechanisms (Kyoto
mechanisms) 1/2
• CDM, Clean Development Mechanism,
CDM is an arrangement under the Kyoto Protocol allowing
industrialized countries with a greenhouse gas reduction
commitment to invest in projects that reduce emissions in
developing countries as an alternative to more expensive emission
reductions in their own countries. Distribution of CDM emission
reductions, by country. The CDM allows net global greenhouse gas
emissions to be reduced at a much lower global cost by financing
emissions reduction projects in developing countries where costs
are lower than in industrialized countries
• Additionality
A crucial feature of an approved CDM carbon project is that it has
established that the planned reductions would not occur without
the additional incentive provided by emission reductions credits, a
concept known as "additionality".
89
Flexibility mechanisms (Kyoto
mechanisms) 2/2
• JI, Joint Implementation
Through the Joint Implementation,
industrialized countries with a greenhouse gas
reduction commitment (so-called Annex 1
countries) may fund emission reducing
projects in other industrialized countries as an
alternative to emission reductions in their own
countries. Typically, these projects occur in
countries in the former Eastern Europe.
Emission reductions are awarded credits
called Emission Reduction Units (ERUs).
90
Climate credits (Carbon credits)
• Emission Reduction Unit, ERU
Emission reduction unit (ERU) refers to the
reduction of greenhouse gases, particularly
under Joint Implementation, where it
represents one tonne of CO2 equivalent
reduced.
• Certified Emission Reduction, CER
Like ERU, but CERs are climate credits (or
carbon credits) issued by CDM.
91
Future Prospects
92
Growth scenario of global energy
use
18 000
Muut
uusiutuvat
Other
renewable
Mtoe
16 000
Nuclear
Ydin
14 000
Biomassa
Biomass
12 000
Gas
Kaasu
10 000
Coal
Hiilil
8 000
6 000
4 000
Oil
Öljy
2 000
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Lähde:
Source:IEA
IEAWorld
WorldEnergy
energyOutlook
outlook 2006, perusskenaario
Basic Scenario
93
Electricity supply by energy
sources scenario in Finland
Sähkön
tuotanto
TWh
Electricity
Supplyenergialähteittäin,
by Energy Sources,
TWh
120
100
nettotuonti
Net import
muut
polttoaineet
Other
fuels
Peat
turve
maakaasu
Gas
öljy
Oil
Coal
kivihiili
ydinvoima
Nuclear power
tuulivoima
Wind
power
Hydro power
vesivoima
80
60
40
20
0
1990
Source: Ministry of
Employment
and the
Lähde: KTM
Economy
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
94
Development of power consumption
2006 90 TWh, 2020 107 TWh, 2030 115 TWh
TWh
120
Losses
100
Electric heating
80
Households and
agriculture
Services and
transportation
60
Other industry
40
Chemical industry
Metal industry
20
Forest industry
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Source: Ministry of
Employment and the Economy
95
Target of United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change is stabilize
greenhouse gas emissions to safety level
30
CO2 -emissions (GtC)
Developed countries
Undeveloped countries
Basic Scenario
25
20
15
550 ppm stabilization
10
5
450 ppm stabilization
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Source: UK DEFRA
96
Scenarios compared to actual
emissions
97
EU in international climate negotiations
Communication on Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius
•
•
Independent commitment to reduce GHG emissions by 20% from
1990 level
If an international agreement signed, 30% GHG reduction compared
to 1990 + developing CDM
Targets will be reached by:
• Developing EU ETS
• Improving energy efficiency (20 % by 2020)
• Increasing share of renewable energy (20 % by 2020)
• CCS-technology, other R&D, reducing emissions from transportation
and other sectors
98
Finland’s energy and climate strategy and
current political climate –Kyoto period
How will Finland reach its’ Kyoto target and what is
the role of other policy instruments
in EU’s Emission Trading Scheme Environment?
• Main Messages of the Government
– All energy sources must be exploitable
– Renewable energy must be promoted
– Industrial Electricity Tax reduced
– Major Part (ca.8Mt/a) of the emission reduction
allocated to emission trading sector, other
sectors need to reduce emission 1Mt/a
– Finland (state) will utilize Kyoto mechanisms
2Mt/a
99
Main techniques to increase
renewable energy 1/2
Hydro Power
Bioenergy
• Utilizing rivers
• Reservoirs
• Tide power
• Wave power
• Wood and
agricultural
products
• Biogas
• Biofuel made from
biomass
100
Main techniques to increase
renewable energy 2/2
Wind Power
• Wind Mill
– nowadays is
possible to build
onshore,
offshore or
inland
Solar Power
• Solar Electricity
– solar cell
• Solar Heating
– thermal collectors
– heat pumps
• Electricity and Heat
– concentrated solar
power
101
Carbon Capture and Storage CCS
• CCS is an approach to mitigate global warming by
capturing CO2 from large point sources such as fossil fuel
power plants and storing it. Technology for large scale
capture of CO2 is already commercially available and
fairly well developed. Although CO2 has been injected into
geological formations for various purposes, the long term
storage of CO2 is a relatively untried concept and as yet
no large scale power plant operates with a full CCS
system.
• CCS could reduce CO2 emissions approximately 80-90%,
increase the fuel needs of a coal-fired plant with CCS by
about 25% and increase the cost of energy from a new
power plant with CCS by 21-91% [IPCC special report on
Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage 2005]
102
CO2 capture
• In post-combustion, the CO2 is removed after combustion of the
fossil fuel - this is the scheme that would be applied to
conventional power plants. Here, carbon dioxide is captured from
flue gases at power stations. The technology is well understood
and is currently used in other industrial applications.
• Pre-combustion is widely applied in fertilizer, chemical, gaseous
fuel (H2, CH4), and power production. In these cases, the fossil
fuel is partially oxidized, for instance in a gasifier. The resulting
syngas (CO and H2) is shifted into CO2 and more H2. The
resulting CO2 can be captured from a relatively pure exhaust
stream. The H2 can now be used as fuel; the carbon is removed
before combustion takes place.
• In Oxy-fuel combustion the fuel is burned in oxygen instead of
air. To limit the resulting flame temperatures to levels common
during conventional combustion, cooled flue gas is recirculated
and injected into the combustion chamber. The flue gas consists
of mainly carbon dioxide and water vapour, the latter of which is
condensed through cooling. The result is an almost pure carbon
dioxide stream that can be transported to the sequestration site
and stored.
Source: Wikipedia
103
CO2 Storage (sequestration)
• Various forms have been conceived for permanent
storage of CO2. These forms include:
– gaseous storage in various deep geological
formations (including saline formations and
exhausted gas fields)
– liquid storage in the ocean
– solid storage by reaction of CO2 with metal
oxides to produce stable carbonates
Source: Wikipedia
104
CCS – Carbon Capture and Storage
Source: IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage
105