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Climate Change and Energy Updated PowerPoint show about climate change and energy sector 1 Research results of climate change 2 Global warming is due to strengthened greenhouse effect The Earth has a natural temperature control system. Certain atmospheric gases are critical to this system and are known as greenhouse gases. On average, about one third of the solar radiation that hits the earth is reflected back to space. The Earth's surface becomes warm and as a result emits infrared radiation. The greenhouse gases trap the infrared radiation, thus warming the atmosphere. Naturally occurring greenhouse gases create a natural greenhouse effect. However, human activities are causing greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere to increase. Greenhouse effect Source: National Geographic 3 Earth’s energy budget Source: Nasa, Atmospheric Science Data Center 4 Strengthening of greenhouse effect is due to increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere The six greenhouse gases under the Kyoto Protocol: • • • • • • Carbon dioxide or CO2 Methane or CH4 Nitrous oxide or N2O Perfluorocarbons or PFC compounds Hydrofluorocarbons or HFC compounds Sulphur hexafluoride or SF6 Other greenhouse gases: • Ozone or O3 • Bromine compounds or halogens, e.g. CF3Br • Freons or chlorofluorocarbons or CFC:s • Water vapour or H2O (g) • Global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased markedly as a result of human activities! Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 5 Different greenhouse gases have different meaning to global warming Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 6 Meaning of carbon dioxide to global warming • Carbon dioxide is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. – The primary source of the increased atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide results from fossil fuel use in power and heat production as well as transport. – The change of land use provides another significant but smaller contribution. – The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years. Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 7 Sources of EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions Kotitaloudet, Households palvelut and SMEsja Muut Other 44% % Agriculture Maanviljely 10 % % 10 kauppa 17 % 17 % Transport Liikenne 21%% 21 Energiasektori Power sector 28 % % 28 Lähde: EEA Source: EEA Idustry Teollisuus Industry 20 % % 20 8 The global atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases has increased Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 9 Atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases correlates with temperature 10 According to researches earth’s mean temperature has risen in the 20th and the 21st century Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 11 According to measurements the temperature is rising Source: Climatic Research Unit 12 Different reconstructions of mean temperature have been published by researchers 13 Sea level is rising The red curve shows reconstructed sea level fields since 1870. Annual averages of the global mean sea level (mm). The blue curve shows coastal tide gauge measurements since 1950. The black curve is based on satellite altimetry. Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 14 Change in volume of glaciers Cumulative Change in Volume of Arctic Glaciers since 1960 15 The average temperature is rising but our choices make a difference Multi-model averages and assessed ranges for surface warming Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 16 Effects of climate change Phenomenon and direction of trend Likelihood that trend occurred in late 20th century (typically post 1960) Warmer and fewer cold days Very likely and nights over most land areas Warmer and more frequent hot days and nights over Very likely most land areas Warm spells / heat waves. Frequency increases over Likely most land areas Heavy precipitation events. Frequency (or proportion of total rainfall from heavy Likely falls) increases over most areas Area affected by droughts Likely in many regions increases since 1970s Intense tropical cyclone Likely in some regions activity increases since 1970 Increased incidence of extreme high sea level (excludes tsunamis) Likely Likelihood of a human contribution to observed trend b Likelihood of future trends based on projections for 21st century Likely Virtually certain Likely (nights) Virtually certain More likely than not More likely than not More likely than not Very likely Very likely Likely More likely than not Likely More likely than not Likely Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 17 Examples of major projected impacts on agriculture, forestry and ecosystems Virtually certain (>99%) is, that • Increased yields in colder environments; decreased yields in warmer environments • Increased insect outbreaks Very likely (90-99%) is, that • Increased danger of wildfire. • Damage to crops, soil erosion and inability to cultivate land due to heavy precipitation events Likely (66-90%) is, that • Intense tropical cyclone activity increases damage to trees, crops and coral reefs • Salinisation of freshwater systems due to high sea level Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 18 Examples of major projected impacts on water resources Virtually certain (>99%) is, that • Effects on water resources relying on snow melt and some water supplies Very likely (90-99%) is, that • Water quality problems, e.g., algal blooms • Adverse effects on quality of surface and groundwater; contamination of water supply; water scarcity may be relieved Likely (66-90%) is, that • More widespread water stress • Power outages causing disruption of public water supply • Decreased freshwater availability due to saltwater intrusion Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 19 Examples of major projected impacts on human health Virtually certain (>99%) is, that • Reduced human mortality from decreased cold exposure Very likely (90-99%) is, that • Increased risk of heat-related mortality • Increased risk of deaths, injuries and infectious, respiratory and skin diseases Likely (66-90%) is, that • Increased risk of malnutrition and water- and food borne diseases • Intense tropical cyclone activity and floods increase risk of deaths, injuries and diseases Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 20 Examples of major projected impacts on industry, settlement and society 1/2 Virtually certain (>99%) is, that • Reduced energy demand for heating • Increased demand for cooling • Declining air quality in cities • Reduced disruption to transport due to snow and ice • Effects on winter tourism Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 21 Examples of major projected impacts on industry, settlement and society 2/2 Very likely (90-99%) is, that • Reduction in quality of life for people in warm areas without appropriate housing • Disruption of settlements, commerce, transport and societies due to flooding Likely (66-90%) is, that • Water shortages for settlements, industry and societies • Disruption by flood and high winds • Costs of coastal protection versus costs of landuse relocation; potential for movement of populations and infrastructure Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 22 Impacts of climate change in Finland • Climate will warm up in the Nordic countries and Arctic region especially in winter – Winter season will become shorter and days with snow cover will became less usual – Period of growth will become longer • Precipitation will increase specially in winter, but not necessarily in summer – Frequency of heavy precipitation events increases in every season • Coniferous forest zone moves north Source: www.ilmastonmuutos.info, www.ilmasto.org 23 Energy production and consumption 24 Total energy consumption has increased substantially in Finland 40 000 35 000 Energy consumption in Finland 1976-2006 30 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 0 19 76 19 78 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 ktoe 25 000 Source: Statistics Finland *Tähän diaan on liitettynä muistiinpanoja 25 Electricity consumption has increased even more than energy consumption TWh Electricity consumption in Finland 1930-2007 120 Stat. 100 Forecast 80 60 40 20 1930 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source: Finnish Energy Industries, Energy Year 2007 26 Final energy consumption by sectors in Finland 2006 Others 13 % Industry 51 % Space heating 20 % Source: Statistics Finland Transport 16 % 27 Electricity consumption by sector in Finland 2007 (90,3 TWh) Industry 53,0 % Losses 3,6 % Housing and agriculture 15,4 % Electric heating 10,0 % Service 18,0 % Source: Finnish Energy Industries, Energy Year 2007 28 Electricity supply by energy sources in Finland 2007 (90,3 TWh) Net imports Hydro power 13,9 % Oil 0,4 % 15,5 % Wind power 0,2 % Peat 7,3 % Coal 14,8 % Bio fuel 10,9 % Waste fuels 0,7 % Natural gas 11,4 % Source: Finnish Energy Industries, Energy Year 2007 Nuclear power 24,9 % 29 Net supplies of electricity in Finland 2007 (90,3 TWh) Hydro power 15,5 % Wind power 0,2 % Nuclear power 24,9 % Net imports 13,9 % Condense etc 16,1 % Source: Finnish Energy Industries, Energy Year 2007 Co-generation district heating 16,1 % Co-generation (CHP), Industry 13,3 % 30 Market share of space heating in Finland 2006 Market share of space heating, year 2006 Source: Statistics Finland district heat 48,3 % electricity 17,5 % light fuel oil 14,0 % other 8,8 % wood 11,4 % 31 Fuel consumption in production of district heat and CHP in Finland 2007 wood, wood residues 11,0 % peat 20,8 % others 3,8 % fuel oil 4,6 % natural gas 33,9 % coal 25,9 % fuel energy 54,8 TWh 32 Fuel consumption in production of district heat and CHP in Finland 1976-2007 100 % other wood peat 80 % 60 % natural gas coal 40 % 20 % oil 0% 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 33 Fuel shares of district heating and CHP in different areas of Finland year 2007 Ahvenanmaa Lappi Kainuu Pohjois-Pohjanmaa Pohjanmaa Etelä-Pohjanmaa Keski-Pohjanmaa Keski-Suomi Pohjois-Karjala Pohjois-Savo Etelä-Savo Etelä-Karjala Kymenlaakso Päijät-Häme Pirkanmaa Kanta-Häme Satakunta Varsinais-Suomi Itä-Uusimaa Uusimaa 0% 10 % 20 % Natural gas 30 % Coal 40 % 50 % Peat 60 % Wood 70 % 80 % Fuel oil 90 % 100 % Others 34 Electricity supply in the Nordic countries 2006 3% 27 % 73 % 10 TWh 24 % 1% 1% 51 % 22 % 14 % 122 TWh 98 % 14 % 58 % 1% 9% 46 % 28 % 20062006 ThePohjoismaat Nordic countries 44 % 79 TWh Source: Nordel 394 TWh Lähde: Nordel Annual Report 2006 43 TWh 86 % Vesivoima Hydro power 140 TWh Tuulivoima ja geothermal geoterminen Wind and power Thermal power Lämpövoima power Nuclear Ydinvoima 35 Electricity consumption in the Nordic countries 2006 10 % 4% 5% 10 % 3% 7% 4% 1% 71 % 10 TWh 19 % 16 % 8% 27 % 23 % 1% 44 % 56 % 30 % 20 % 119 TWh 41 % 4% 90 TWh 8% 6% 28 % 19 % 8% 27 % 36 TWh 405 TWh 31 % 41 % 28 % 146 TWh Asuminen Housing Teollisuus (sis. energiasektorin) Industry (including energy sector) Palvelut Service Maataloustuotanto ym. Agriculture Verkostohäviöt Losses Lähde: Nordel Source: Nordel Annual Annual Report Report 2006 2006 36 Total gross electricity generation in Europe 2006 Germany France UK Italy Spain Turkey Poland Sweden Norway Netherlands Belgium Czech Republic Finland Austria Romania Greece Switzerland Portugal Bulgaria Denmark Hungary Slovakia Ireland Slovenia Lithuania Croatia Iceland Estonia Latvia Cyprus Luxembourg Malta 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 GWh Source: Eurostat 37 Gross electricity generation by Fuel – EU-27 2005 * Pumped Storage Plants and Other Power Stations Source: Eurostat, European Commission 38 Final energy consumption in Europe 2006 Germany France UK Italy Spain Turkey Poland Netherlands Belgium Sweden Austria Finland Czech Romania Switzerland Greece Portugal Norway Hungary Denmark Ireland Slovakia Bulgaria Croatia Slovenia Lithuania Luxembour Latvia Estonia Iceland Cyprus Malta 0 50000 100000 150000 (ktoe) 200000 250000 Source: Eurostat 39 Final energy consumption by fuel EU27 2005 Source: Eurostat, European Commission 40 Final energy intensity in Europe 2006 per capita Luxembourg Iceland Finland Norway Sweden Belgium Austria Netherlands Ireland Denmark Germany Czech Republic France UK Slovenia Cyprus Italy Spain Estonia Slovakia Greece Latvia Hungary Portugal Poland Lithuania Bulgaria Malta Romania Turkey 0 2 4 6 (toe per inhabitant) 8 10 12 Source: EEA, Eurostat 41 Final energy consumption by sector – EU-27 2005 Source: Eurostat 42 Electricity consumption by sector EU-27 2005 Industry Teollisuus 41% 41 % Kotitaloudet Households, ja palvelut trades, 56 % services, etc. 56 % Transport Liikenne 3 3% % Lähde: Source: Eurostat Eurostat 43 Global total primary energy supply is increasing Source: EEA **Asia excludes China. 44 Regional shares of world’s total primary energy supply 2005 **Asia excludes China. Source: EEA 45 Use of all fuels has increased globally Source: EEA 46 Fuel shares of world’s total primary energy supply Source: EEA 47 Increasing of electricity generation has been even faster than world’s total primary energy supply **Other includes geothermal, solar, wind, combustible renewables & waste. Source: EEA 48 Fuel shares of electricity generation 2005 Source: EEA **Other includes geothermal, solar, wind, combustible renewables & waste. 49 Evolution from 1971 to 2005 of world’s electricity generation by regions (TWh) Source: EEA **Asia excludes China. 50 World’s electricity generation by regions in 2005 **Asia excludes China. Source: EEA 51 Remaining natural resources Over 2000 year Years of production left Very difficult to utilize Difficult to utilize Estimated additional resources Known and identified resources Consumption per year, 1000 Mtoe Oil Gas Coal Uranium Source: Energia Suomessa 2004 Lähde: VTT,VTT, Energia suomessa 2004 52 Renewable Energy 53 Renewable energy sources • Water • Biomass • Wind • Sunlight • Geothermal heat Renewable energy technologies are directly or indirectly powered by the sun – as well as fossil fuels. 54 Renewable energy covered more than a fourth of the electricity supply in Finland 2007 Coal 14,8 % Oil 0,4 % Net imports 13,9 % Biofuel 10,9 % Natural gas 11,4 % Nuclear power 24,9 % Wind power 0,2 % Renewable energy 26,6 % Peat 7,3 % Waste fuels 0,7 % Hydro power 15,5 % Source: Finnish Energy Industries, Energy Year 2007 55 Renewable energy covered almost a fourth of the energy consumption in Finland 2007 Net Imports of Electricity 3,1 % Nuclear Wood-based fuels Peat 16,9 % 20,7 % 7,3 % Natural gas 10,5 % Renewable 24,2 % Coal 13,2 % Hydro and Wind Power Oil Energy Industries, Energy Year 2007 Source: Statistics Finland 3,5 % 24,8 % Source: Finnish 56 6,5 6,0 Solar 5,5 5,0 Wind 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 Geothe rmal 2,5 Hydro 2,0 1,5 Biomas s and waste 1,0 0,5 Source: EEA, Eurostat. 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 0,0 1990 Shares in primary energy consumption (%) The share of renewable energy sources in primary energy consumption increased slowly in the 7,0 EU-27 57 Renewable energy sources in the EU countries 2005 % Source: Statistics Finland 58 Peat is a slowly renewable biomass fuel • Growth of peat is bigger than use in Finland • In Finland peat is classified as a slowly renewable biomass fuel, because the average regrowth rate of a single peat bog is 2000-3000 years. • Peat Industry utilizes less than one per cent of peat bogs in Finland. Energy industry utilizes 90% of harvested peat. • Twenty-six percent of the land area of Finland is peat bog of some sort 59 Green house gases 60 EU-27 green house gas emissions in 2005 Germany United Italy France Spain Poland Netherlands Romania Czech Belgium Greece Austria Portugal Hungary Ireland Bulgaria Finland Sweden Denmark Slovakia Lithuania Estonia Slovenia Luxembour Latvia Cyprus Malta 0 200 400 600 (Mt CO2 ekv.) 800 1000 1200 Source: EEA 61 Carbon dioxide intensity in power generation in some European countries in 2003 Poland Hungary Romania UK Czech Denmark Germany Netherlands Portugal Spain Belgium Finland Latvia Annual variation of emissions in Finland Lithuania Sweden Norway 0 200 400 600 g(CO2)/kWh 800 1000 1200 Source: Statistics Finland 62 Greenhouse gas emissions in the EU 1990-2005 6000 EU-27 including sisältäenlandmaankäytön ja use change and metsityksen forestry EU-27 land-use Eu-27 excluding ilman maankäyttöä ja metsitystä change and forestry 4000 3000 EU-15 including sisältäenlandmaankäytön ja use change and metsityksen forestry EU-15 maankäyttöä EU-15 ilman excluding land-use ja metsitystä change and forestry 2000 1000 Sisältää Kioton pöytäkirjassa mainitut kuusi Including the six greenhouse gases kasvihuonekaasua. under the Kyoto Protocol Year vuosi 2005 2002 1999 1996 1993 0 1990 Mtekv. eq. CO2 Mt CO2 5000 Lähde: EEA Source: EEA 63 Finnish greenhouse gas emissions 1990–2006 and the emissions target Including the six greenhouse gases under the Kyoto Protocol Emission trading sector, total CO2 from combustion, nonemission trading sector Other GHGs than CO2 from combustion Finland‘s target Kyoto & EU-burden sharing Source: Finland’s National Allocation Plan for Emissions Allowances for the trading period 2008–2012 64 Greenhouse gas emissions by source in Finland in 2006 Source: Statistics Finland 65 Sources of EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions Kotitaloudet, Households palvelut and SMEsja Muut Other 44% % Agriculture Maanviljely 10 % % 10 kauppa 17 % 17 % Transport Liikenne 21%% 21 Energiasektori Power sector 28 % % 28 Lähde: EEA Source: EEA Idustry Teollisuus 20 % % 20 66 Estimated green house gas emissions in Finland 2010 and 2025 14 % 84,6MtCO2MtCO284,6 eq./year ekv./vuosi 34 % 6% 6% 34 % 2% 4% 16 % 16 % 2010 14 % 84,3 84,3 MtCO2MtCO2eq./year ekv./vuosi 26 % 2025 28 % Sähkö Electricity ja kaukolämpö and district heating Industry Teollisuusprosessit ja teollisuuden energia Liikenne Transport Heating Lämmitys Muut Othertoimialat sectors Green house gases excluding CO2 Muut kuin CO2-päästöt Source: Finland’s National Lähde: Suomen päästöoikeuksien Allocation Plan for Emissions jakosuunnitelma vuosille 2008Allowances for the trading period 2012 2008–2012 67 Evolution from 1971 to 2005 of world’s CO2 emissions by fuel Mt of CO2 *** Other includes industrial waste and non-renewable municipal waste. Source: IEA 68 World’s CO2 emissions by fuel shares in 2005 Source: IEA 69 Evolution from 1971 to 2005 of world’s CO2 emissions by region Mt of CO2 *** Asia excludes China. Source: IEA 70 World’s regional shares of CO2 emission in 2005 *** Asia excludes China. Source: IEA 71 CO2 emissions avoided by utilization of Combined Heat and Power production million t CO2 25 20 savings due to CHP 15 10 CO2-emissions in the production of district heat and cogenerated electricity 5 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 72 CO2 emissions avoided by renewable and nuclear power 70 60 50 MtCO2 Wind Power Bioenergy 40 Hydro Power 30 20 Nuclear Power 10 Actual Emissions 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 20002001 2002 2003 2004 73 Source: Finnish Energy Industries Climate treaties and –policy 74 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change • The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC or FCCC) is an international environmental treaty produced at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), informally known as the Earth Summit, held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. • Its’ stated objective is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a low enough level to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. • UNFCCC members that ratify this treaty admit officially that climate change is a serious problem. • 192 nations have signed the UNFCCC. Source: UNFCCC 75 *Tähän diaan on liitettynä muistiinpanoja Kyoto Protocol 1/2 • The Kyoto Protocol is the principal update of UNFCCC • Notable international agreement – 178 countries have ratified Kyoto Protocol • Countries that ratify this protocol commit to reducing their emissions of carbon dioxide and five other greenhouse gases – CO2, N2O, CH4, SF6, HFC, PFC – carbon dioxide is primary target • 2008-2012 developed countries have to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by a collective average of 5% below their 1990 levels • EU will reduce 8 %. – Reduction has been shared between EU countries by burden sharing agreement Lähde: UNFCCC 76 Kyoto Protocol 2/2 • Emission reduce targets for 38 countries, e.g. – EU-15 - 8 % (Burden Sharing Agreement) – USA - 7 % (has not ratified) – Japan and Canada - 6 % – Australia + 8 % (has not ratified) – Russia, Ukraine, New Zealand 0 % – Eastern European transition economy countries (not all) - 8 %; incl. 8 new EU countries • Eastern European countries have to do nothing. Emission are already well below their levels • Many countries haven’t got limits e.g. – Oil countries in the Middle-East, China, India, SouthAmerica, Asian developing industrial countries, SouthAfrica,… – The idea was that those countries will start reducing their emissions in the future Source: UNFCCC 77 Burden sharing in EU-15 • EU shared targets between member states. • Finland have to reduce emissions to same level as 1990. • Percentages don’t tell how challenging the target is. – The target for Finland is estimated as one of the most expensive in many analyses • Finland’s emissions – 1990 ca. 71 MtCO2-eq. – 2008-2012 on average ca. 83 MtCO2-eq. Luxembourg German Denmark Austria UK Belgium Italy Netherlands Finland France Sweden Irland Spain Greece Portugal -28 % -21 % -21 % -13 % -12,50 % -8 % -7 % -6 % 0% 0% 4% 13 % 15 % 25 % 27 % 78 Burden sharing in Finnish NAP2 Finland´s need to reduce emissions from WM 2008-2012 - 12,2 MtCO2/a + Governmental use of Kyoto mechanisms 2,4 MtCO2/a - 2 MtCO2/a* Emissions trading sector - 12,1 MtCO2/a -18 % Industry - 1,5 MtCO2/a -7% Sectors outside emissions trading - 1 MtCO2/a -3% Electricity and DH - 10,6 MtCO2/a - 41 % New entrants reserve 1,4 MtCO2/a * EU Comission required Finland to reduce the amount of emission allowances by 2 MtCO2/a 79 The EU Emission Trading System 1/2 • The EU Emission Trading System started 2005 • Aim is reduce green house gas emissions and reach Kyoto target. • Companies that are in emission trading system are bound to: – apply for a permission to green house gas emissions – track and validate the actual emissions in accordance with the relevant assigned amount – retire the allowances after the end of each year • Member states set a quota for GHG emissions – the total amount of allowances is less than the amount that would have been emitted under a business-as-usual scenario. 80 The EU Emission Trading System 2/2 • The second phase (2008-12) expands the scope significantly: – emission allowances available 200 MtCO2/year less than 2005-2007 – companies will reduce emissions or buy emission allowances – total emissions will reduce – Finland has emission allowances 16 % (8 Mt CO2/year ) less than 2005 – Reduction has been allocated mainly to power and district heating production. 81 Emission trade sectors • Energy Industry – over 20 MW (thermal) power plants, oil refineries and coke furnaces – under 20 MW power plants for district heating if in same network is one or more over 20 MW power plant in Finland – Excluding incineration of municipal and hazardous waste • Steel Industry – roasting and sintering units of metallic minerals – iron and steel production and founding if production capacity is over 2,5 t/h • Construction Industry – Production of cement, lime, glass, fiberglass, bricks, porcelain and burned stone products. • Paper and Forrest Industry – Production of pulp, paper and board if production capacity is over 20 t/h 82 Scope of emission trading • Emission trading covers ca. 60 % greenhouse gas emissions of the EU. – 500 Energy and Industry plants in Finland – 12 000 plant in the EU • Possibly enlarging the scope of the scheme to new sectors, including aviation, petrochemicals, ammonia and the aluminum sector, as well to two new gases (nitrous oxide and perfluorocarbons) • All 27 countries of the EU are in emission trading 83 Emission trading affects fuel prices and competitiveness Fuel Polttoaine Coal kivihiili turve Peat puu Wood maakaasu Gas raskas Heavy fuelpö oil CO2-päästö CO2 emission/MWh t/MWh 0,334 0,378 0 0,201 0,276 Nykyinen Present price veroton hinta excl. taxes €/MWh 6-8 7-8 10-15 17-21 20-25 Extra cost 5 Lisäkust. Extra cost 50 Extra cost 20 Lisäkust. 20 Lisäkust. 50 €/MWh 1,67 1,89 0 1,005 1,38 €/MWh 6,68 7,56 0 4,02 5,52 €/MWh 16,7 18,9 0 10,05 13,8 Tilastokeskus Source:Lähde: Statistics Finnland 84 Purpose of the emission trading system is to affect demand and supply through CO2 price • Emission free and low emission energy sources will gain competitive edge – enhance investments and increase utilization factors – One funding source for new investments is the emission allowances of high CO2 emission energy sources • Changes in product prices effect the demand • Competition on the market aims to minimize price increase The goal is to reduce green house gas emissions in a cost-effective way 85 Emission trading and Kyoton mechanisms Finland’s emission ceiling 2008-2012 (ca. 71 MtCO2-ekv/a without Kyoto mechanisms and EU ETS) Installations in EU ETS ”Additional” emission allowances through Kyoto mechanisms by the state (JI, CDM, Global ETS) CO2 emissions from other sectors and other GHG ca. 45 % of emissions ca. 55 % of emissions Additional emission allowances through EU ETS Additional emission allowances through Kyoto mechanisms 86 Climate Policy - Responsibilities 2008-2012 Each EU Member State has own emission quota UK KYOTO-TARGET FI FR EU-ETS Each MS makes a national allocation plan Emissions outside ETS PL Total Amount of EU Emission allowances Emissions within ETS DE National allocation plan for industrial plants 87 Link directive brings to the carbon market emission reductions though so called Kyotomechanisms • Link directive published 13.11.2004, In Finland implemented by changing the emission trading law 12.1.2007 • Makes it possible to utilize emission reduction executed outside EU in EU’s ETS – Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)-projects executed in developing countries provide CER-units, which have been used since 2005 – Joint Implementation (JI) -projects executed in industrial countries provide ERU-units, which have been used since 2008 • Limits the price increase of emission allowances in the EU • Makes the carbon market global 88 Flexibility mechanisms (Kyoto mechanisms) 1/2 • CDM, Clean Development Mechanism, CDM is an arrangement under the Kyoto Protocol allowing industrialized countries with a greenhouse gas reduction commitment to invest in projects that reduce emissions in developing countries as an alternative to more expensive emission reductions in their own countries. Distribution of CDM emission reductions, by country. The CDM allows net global greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced at a much lower global cost by financing emissions reduction projects in developing countries where costs are lower than in industrialized countries • Additionality A crucial feature of an approved CDM carbon project is that it has established that the planned reductions would not occur without the additional incentive provided by emission reductions credits, a concept known as "additionality". 89 Flexibility mechanisms (Kyoto mechanisms) 2/2 • JI, Joint Implementation Through the Joint Implementation, industrialized countries with a greenhouse gas reduction commitment (so-called Annex 1 countries) may fund emission reducing projects in other industrialized countries as an alternative to emission reductions in their own countries. Typically, these projects occur in countries in the former Eastern Europe. Emission reductions are awarded credits called Emission Reduction Units (ERUs). 90 Climate credits (Carbon credits) • Emission Reduction Unit, ERU Emission reduction unit (ERU) refers to the reduction of greenhouse gases, particularly under Joint Implementation, where it represents one tonne of CO2 equivalent reduced. • Certified Emission Reduction, CER Like ERU, but CERs are climate credits (or carbon credits) issued by CDM. 91 Future Prospects 92 Growth scenario of global energy use 18 000 Muut uusiutuvat Other renewable Mtoe 16 000 Nuclear Ydin 14 000 Biomassa Biomass 12 000 Gas Kaasu 10 000 Coal Hiilil 8 000 6 000 4 000 Oil Öljy 2 000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Lähde: Source:IEA IEAWorld WorldEnergy energyOutlook outlook 2006, perusskenaario Basic Scenario 93 Electricity supply by energy sources scenario in Finland Sähkön tuotanto TWh Electricity Supplyenergialähteittäin, by Energy Sources, TWh 120 100 nettotuonti Net import muut polttoaineet Other fuels Peat turve maakaasu Gas öljy Oil Coal kivihiili ydinvoima Nuclear power tuulivoima Wind power Hydro power vesivoima 80 60 40 20 0 1990 Source: Ministry of Employment and the Lähde: KTM Economy 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 94 Development of power consumption 2006 90 TWh, 2020 107 TWh, 2030 115 TWh TWh 120 Losses 100 Electric heating 80 Households and agriculture Services and transportation 60 Other industry 40 Chemical industry Metal industry 20 Forest industry 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source: Ministry of Employment and the Economy 95 Target of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is stabilize greenhouse gas emissions to safety level 30 CO2 -emissions (GtC) Developed countries Undeveloped countries Basic Scenario 25 20 15 550 ppm stabilization 10 5 450 ppm stabilization 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Source: UK DEFRA 96 Scenarios compared to actual emissions 97 EU in international climate negotiations Communication on Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius • • Independent commitment to reduce GHG emissions by 20% from 1990 level If an international agreement signed, 30% GHG reduction compared to 1990 + developing CDM Targets will be reached by: • Developing EU ETS • Improving energy efficiency (20 % by 2020) • Increasing share of renewable energy (20 % by 2020) • CCS-technology, other R&D, reducing emissions from transportation and other sectors 98 Finland’s energy and climate strategy and current political climate –Kyoto period How will Finland reach its’ Kyoto target and what is the role of other policy instruments in EU’s Emission Trading Scheme Environment? • Main Messages of the Government – All energy sources must be exploitable – Renewable energy must be promoted – Industrial Electricity Tax reduced – Major Part (ca.8Mt/a) of the emission reduction allocated to emission trading sector, other sectors need to reduce emission 1Mt/a – Finland (state) will utilize Kyoto mechanisms 2Mt/a 99 Main techniques to increase renewable energy 1/2 Hydro Power Bioenergy • Utilizing rivers • Reservoirs • Tide power • Wave power • Wood and agricultural products • Biogas • Biofuel made from biomass 100 Main techniques to increase renewable energy 2/2 Wind Power • Wind Mill – nowadays is possible to build onshore, offshore or inland Solar Power • Solar Electricity – solar cell • Solar Heating – thermal collectors – heat pumps • Electricity and Heat – concentrated solar power 101 Carbon Capture and Storage CCS • CCS is an approach to mitigate global warming by capturing CO2 from large point sources such as fossil fuel power plants and storing it. Technology for large scale capture of CO2 is already commercially available and fairly well developed. Although CO2 has been injected into geological formations for various purposes, the long term storage of CO2 is a relatively untried concept and as yet no large scale power plant operates with a full CCS system. • CCS could reduce CO2 emissions approximately 80-90%, increase the fuel needs of a coal-fired plant with CCS by about 25% and increase the cost of energy from a new power plant with CCS by 21-91% [IPCC special report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage 2005] 102 CO2 capture • In post-combustion, the CO2 is removed after combustion of the fossil fuel - this is the scheme that would be applied to conventional power plants. Here, carbon dioxide is captured from flue gases at power stations. The technology is well understood and is currently used in other industrial applications. • Pre-combustion is widely applied in fertilizer, chemical, gaseous fuel (H2, CH4), and power production. In these cases, the fossil fuel is partially oxidized, for instance in a gasifier. The resulting syngas (CO and H2) is shifted into CO2 and more H2. The resulting CO2 can be captured from a relatively pure exhaust stream. The H2 can now be used as fuel; the carbon is removed before combustion takes place. • In Oxy-fuel combustion the fuel is burned in oxygen instead of air. To limit the resulting flame temperatures to levels common during conventional combustion, cooled flue gas is recirculated and injected into the combustion chamber. The flue gas consists of mainly carbon dioxide and water vapour, the latter of which is condensed through cooling. The result is an almost pure carbon dioxide stream that can be transported to the sequestration site and stored. Source: Wikipedia 103 CO2 Storage (sequestration) • Various forms have been conceived for permanent storage of CO2. These forms include: – gaseous storage in various deep geological formations (including saline formations and exhausted gas fields) – liquid storage in the ocean – solid storage by reaction of CO2 with metal oxides to produce stable carbonates Source: Wikipedia 104 CCS – Carbon Capture and Storage Source: IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage 105