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Addressing Megacity Risks: Climate Change and Disasters by Adam Rose School of Policy, Planning, and Development Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events University of Southern California Climate Change Mitigation • Analysis of Advantages of Emissions Trading - U.S. mega-regions (highly urbanized) - Pacific Rim (China, Hong Kong, Singapore) - China conservation regions (municipality cluster) • Illustration of new concepts & new geography Western Climate Initiative: Mega-Region • Initiated in 2006—focus on emissions trading - originally 5 U.S. states & 1 Canadian provinces - now 7 states & 4 provinces (plus observers: 6 U.S., 1 Canada, 6 Mexico) - also discussions with EU & Pacific Rim • Mega-Regions need not be contiguous; because of stock pollutant character of GHGs WCI Membership Grows Original Participants: British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, California, Arizona, and New Mexico. WCI Membership Grows Original Participants: British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, California, Arizona, and New Mexico. In 2007: Manitoba, Montana, and Utah. WCI Membership Grows Original Participants: British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, California, Arizona, and New Mexico. In 2007: Manitoba, Montana, and Utah. In 2008: Ontario and Quebec also join. Cost/Saving Potential of Mitigation Options in Michigan, 2025 Mitigation Option Cost or Savings per ton of GHG Removed TLU-6: Land Use Planning and Incentives -$189.00 TLU-3: Truck Idling Policies TLU-5: Congestion Mitigation -$85.00 -$81.00 RCI-4: Adopt More Stringent Building Codes for Energy Efficiency -$35.00 RCI-2: Existing Buildings Energy Efficiency Incentives, Assistance, Certification, and Financing -$28.00 RCI-1: Utility Demand-Side Management for Electricity and Natural Gas -$19.00 ES-3: Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard -$19.00 AFW-10: Landfill Methane Energy Programs -$1.57 ES-13: Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Standards, Incentives and/or Barrier Removal $4.09 TLU-1: Promote Low-Carbon Fuel Use in Transportation $16.00 GHG Emissions Trading in the Pacific Rim • Region contains many megacities, including city states of Hong Kong & Singapore • Major trading area with history of cooperation • An agreement with an innovative approach to permit allocation may entice China to join: “No Harm” rule: give DCs enough permits such that they incur zero costs after trading W ut ex n a rn s ia St at es as tA Am er ica a ic o pa in Ru ss i M Ja Ch da ica na er Ca Z rs /N ge lia Ti Am he S. es te So n st ra C. Au As ia in million 2006 dollars Net Costs of GHG Trading 12,000 20,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Trading Cost 4,000 Net Cost Cost Saving 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 China Conservation Quota System • China’s conservation goal: 2.2% per year • Examine system of interregional quota trading (analogous to emissions trading) • China starting to decentralize implementation: municipalities & regions • New delineation of region per socioeconomics => a region consisting of 3 municipalities Chinese Conservation Regions Beijing Tianjin Shanghai Economic Resilience: Key Questions • Is resilience a meaningful concept? • Can resilience be rigorously defined? • Can resilience be empirically measured? • How effective has resilience been to date? • Can resilience be enhanced or depleted? • Are megacities more resilient or less resilient? Economic Resilience Defined General Definition: static: ability of a system to maintain function if shocked dynamic: speed of a system to recover from shock Types of Resilience: inherent: normal ability during crises to maintain function (input/import substitution, market reallocation) adaptive: ingenuity during crises (increased substitution possibilities, market strengthening) Motivation for Resilience • Individual and business survival • Need/profit—New “business continuity” industry • Acknowledgement of interdependence: “Companies have started to realize that they participate in a greater ecosystem, and that their IT systems are only as resilient as the firms they rely on to stay in business.”—IBM Executive Examples of Resilience • Individual Business (and Household) - conservation of critical inputs - use of inventories - business relocation • Market - efficient allocation of resources via price signals - non-interruptible service premia • Regional Economy - importing scarce commodities - information clearinghouses Two-Week Power Outage in LA • Losses with no resilience -- $20.5B (93.6%) • Losses with resilience (all types) -- $2.8B (13.0%) • Indirect Losses (net GE) -(as percent of direct PE losses) $3.1B (23.8%) Individual Resilience Options Resilience Factor Conservation Adaptive Substitution Inventories/Storage Alternative Sources Importance Production Rescheduling Total Water Electricity 1.0 1.6 3.0 — 58.7 75.5 6.1 3.9 — 28.1 28.7 79.4 91.0 89.6 Conclusion • Resilience is a worthy second line of defense - it is effective - it is low cost - it is self-motivated • Resilience is yet another way we can all contribute to reducing risks from disasters References • Kverndok, S. and A. Rose. 2008. “Equity and Justice in Climate Change Policy,” International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics 2(3): 1-43 • Rose, A. 2007. "Economic Resilience to Disasters: Multidisciplinary Origins and Contextual Dimensions," Environmental Hazards: Human and Social Dimensions 7(4): 383-98. • Rose, A. 2009. “A Framework for Analyzing and Estimating the Total Economic Impacts of a Terrorist Attack,” Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management 6(1): 1-27. • Rose, A. and D. Wei. 2008. "Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Among Pacific Rim Countries: An Analysis of Policies to Bring Developing Countries to the Bargaining Table," Energy Policy 36(4): 1420-29. • Rose, A. et al. 2009. "Climate Change Policy Formation in Michigan: The Case for a Regional Approach," International Regional Science Review, forthcoming. • Wei, D. and A. Rose. 2009. “Interrregional Sharing of Energy Conservation Targets in China: Efficiency and Equity ,” Energy Journal, under review.