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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION COUNCIL
REPUBLIC OF YEMEN
PREFACE & FORWARD
Following signing of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at the Earth
Summit in 1992, Rio de Janeiro, and in response to the Conference of parties, the parties are
required to submit their Initial Communication which should include a national inventory of
sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, identification of vulnerable sectors and actions to be taken
for sustainable future development.
Recent increasing in Government commitment towards achieving the objectives of better
protection of the environment and the rational management of resources has been reflected in
submission of the national communication within three years of availability of financial resources.
As the fund made available for the initial national communication was on early 1998 through the
Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the Netherlands Climate Change Studies assistant
programm (NCCSAP) during 1998.
Climate change is a new subject in Yemen. Capacity to assess topics on climate change,
particularly the main focal areas of inventories, mitigation analysis, vulnerability assessment
remains rudimentary and restricted to a few institutions. Long-term institutional capacity building
is considered critical to overcoming technical difficulties relating to methods, models and data.
Introduction of abatement activities would require first a national policy position to support
industrial energy conservation and the transfer or development of environmentally sensitive
technology. Ensuring the success of such a policy requires specific policy instruments to enable
productive sectors to adopt appropriate abatement practices. The introduction of such instruments
in turn requires some policy and technical capacity to monitor emission for purposes of enforcing
reduction instruments. Therefore developing a practical national response program requires skills
in many technical and social disciplines.
As anticipatory measures are also often more cost-effective than reactive adaptation measures,
Yemen is presenting several cost-effective measures
Mohsen A. Al Hamdani
CHAIRMAN
B
EDITOR AND CONTRIBUTORS
Editor
Ahmed Mohamed Alderwish
Director of Climate Change Project
Environmental Protection Council
Contributors:
National Greenhouse Gases Inventory Team
Leader: A. Haq Sultan
Physics Department
Energy Mitigation Assessment Option Team
Leader: T. Sufian
Electrical Engineering Department
Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Assessment on Agricultural Production Team
Leader: O. Bafadhal
Agricultural Research and Extension Authority
Climate Change Impact on socio-economic Team
Leader: A. Hajar
Ministry of Planning and Development
Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Assessment on Coastal Zone Team
Leader: A. Al Subary
Earth and Environmental Sciences Department
Climate Change Impact on Water Resources of Abyan Delta
Leader: M. Al Eryani
Civil Engineering Department
Construction of Climate Change Scenarios Team
Leader: A. Al Jibly
Geography Department
AKNOWLEDGEMENTS
THE PREPARATION OF THE INITIAL NATIONAL COMMUNICATION WAS FUNDED
BY THE NETHERLANDS CLIMATE CHANGE STUDIES ASSISTANCE PROGRAMME
MANAGED BY THE INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMNETAL STUDIES AND THE GLOBAL
ENVIRONMENT
UNITED
FACILITIES,
NATION
THROUGH
DEVELOPMENT
ITS
PROGRAMME
GRATEFULLY ACKNOWLEDGED.
C
IMPLEMENTING
AND
THEIR
AGENCY
THE
SUPPORT
ARE
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE
EDITOR & CONTRIBUTORS
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABBREVIATIONS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. INTRODUCTION 1
2. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1995 3
2.2. Geography 4
2.1.1. Location and size 4
2.1.2. Population size and density 4
2.1.3. Physical Features 4
2.1.4. Yemeni Islands 6
2.1.5. Climate 6
2.2. National characteristics & resources 11
2.2.1. Water resources 11
2.2.2. Agriculture and Forest 12
2.2.3. Coastal zone & Marine resources 13
2.2.4. Other resources 14
2.3. Socio-economic structure 14
2.3.1. Economy 14
2.3.2. Trade 16
2.3.3. Welfare 16
2.4.Overview of the Energy Sector 17
2.4.1. Resources 17
2.4.2. Primary Energy Production 19
2.4.3. Total Energy Consumption 20
2.4.4. Energy Policies 21
2.5. Decision making structure and Climate Change organization 22
3. NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY 24
3.1 Introduction 24
3.2 Methodology and Data 25
3.3 Energy 26
3.4 Industrial Processes 28
3.5 Agriculture 29
3.6 Land use change and Forestry 30
3.7 Waste management 32
3.8 International bunkers and biomass 32
3.9 Summary 33
D
4. OBSERVATION, RESEARCH AND IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE 36
4.1. Observation and Research on Climate Change 36
4.1.1. Monitoring network 36
4.1.2. Data banks 37
4.1.3. Research on climate change 37
4.2. Vulnerability to climate change 40
4.2.1. Climate change Scenarios 40
4.2.2. Socio-economic scenarios 40
4.2.3. Water Resources 41
4.2.3. Agricultural production 44
4.2.4. Coastal zone 47
4.3 Concluding Remarks 55
5. MEASURES TO REDUCE GHG EMISSION AND ADAPTATION TO
CLIMATE CHANGE 56
5.1. Introduction 56
5.2. Mitigation measures 56
5.2.1. Scenario of GHG Emissions 58
5.2.2. An Overview of Measures (Options) 60
5.3. Adaptation measures 62
5.3.1. Water resources 62
5.3.2. Agriculture 64
5.3.3. Coastal zone 66
5.4. Education, Training, and Public awareness 68
6. CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH NEEDS 70
References
E
LIST OF TABLES
Table SE1
Summary for National Circumstances 1995
Table SE2
Summary of National GHG by sources and sinks
Table 2.1
National Circumstances (1994)
Table 2.2
Climatological averages
Table 2.3
Current recharge and abstraction rate
Table 2.4
The degree of performance for various socio-economic sectors
Table 2.5
1995 installed capacity, effective capacity generated energy and fuel used
Table 3.1:
Sectoral breakdown of GHG emission
Table 3.2:
Energy related GHG emission by sector
Table 3.3.
Energy consumption and emission
Table 3.4:
Fuels consumption of fuel products
Table 3.5:
Amount of GHG emission from industrial secgtors
Table 3.6
GHGs emission from agricultural processes
Table 3.7:
CH4 emission from agriculture, 1995
Table 3.8:
N2O Emission from agriculture, 1995 Agriculture
Table 3.9:
Land use change and forestry GHG Source and sinks in Gg CO2 eq, 1995
Table 3.10
Summary report of national GHG emission
Table 3.11
Summary report of national GHG sink and source, 1995
Table 4.1.
Average surface water resource under certain climate conditions
Table 4.2.
The available water resource in Abyan delta
Table 4.3.
Total water demand in Abyan delta
Table 4.4.
Groundwater demand/supply in Abyan delta
Table 4.5
Potential production of potatoes under various climate conditions
Table 4.6
Potential production of wheat under various climate conditions
Table 4.7
Losses and costs due to Accelerated sea level rise.
Table 5.1.
Projection of total inland energy requirement by fuel type
F
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2.1
Country location and Geographical regions
Figure 2.2
Isohyet map
Figure 2.3
Temperature at various stations (or spatial distribution)
Figure 2.4
Climatic zones (aridity)
Figure 2.5
Relative energy consumption by sectors 1995
Figure 2.6
Relative electricity consumption by sectors for 1995
Figure 3.1.
Total Yemen's GHG emissions by sector, 1995
Figure 3.2.
Yemen's GHG emission by gas type, 1995
Figure 3.3.
Energy related GHG emissions by gas type 1995
Figure 3.4.
GHGs emission from agricultural sector
Figure 3.5.
Carbon dioxide emission and removal
Figure 3.6.
Emission by gas type in waste management sector
Figure 3.7.
GHG emission from waste management
Figure 4.1
Groundwater water supply/demand relation
Figure 4.2
Simplified map showing the variety of water rise through contour lines
over the threatened region.
Figure 4.3
(Plate) Building in Hodeidah retreated for about 30m during the last 35
Years.
Figure 4.4
(Plate) Shows another building and coast line pounded by high energy
wave action.
Figure 4.5
(Plate) Newly built defense structure (1999) in the pilot area.
Figure 4.6
(Plate) Shows a stone built sea-wall structure of Hodeidah front.
Figure 4.7
(Plate) Shows the other side of the coastline shown in Figure (4.6)
Figure 5.1.
Projection of energy by sector for the base year and for year 2020
Figure 5.2.
The global warming potential under baseline scenario
Figure 5.3.
Expected CO2 reduction for two scenarios
G
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
AREA
ASLR
B/D
BAU
CAMA
CCGT
CH4
CHP
CO
CO2
CoP
COZMIS
CSO
ECHAM3TR
EFARP
EPC
Eto
Etp
FAO
GAREW
GCM
GDP
GEF
GHG
GIS
GNP
GWh
IPCC
ITCZ
IVM
Kv
LDC
LNG
LPG
Agricultural Research and Extension Authority
Accelerated Sea Level Rise
Barrels a Day
Business As usual
Civil Aviation and Meteorological Authority
Combined-Cycle Gas Turbine
Methane
Combined Heat and Power
Carbon monoxide
Carbon dioxide
Conference of Parties
Coastal Information System
Central Statistical Office
Max Plan Institute
Economic, Financial and Administrative Reform
Environmental Protection Council
Potential evaporation
Potential evapotranspiration
Food and Agriculture Organization
General Authority for Rural Electrification and Water
General Circulation Model
Gross Domestic Product
Global Environment Facility
Green House Gas
Geographical Information System
Gross National Product
Gega Watt per hour
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone
Institute for Environmental studies
kilo volt
Least Developed Country
Liquefied Natural Gas
Light Petroleum Gas
H
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
m.a.s.l.
MCM/Mm3
MEW
MGJ
MOMR
MPD
MW
N2O
NCCSAP
NGO
NIR
NMVOC
NO
NWRA
o
C
OSU
P
PEC
PMU
PV
RH
RSCZ
SCOMR
SO2
SSD
TOE
UKHI
UNDP
UNFCCC
V&A
WHO
WS
YLNG
YR
Meter above sea level
Million Cubic Meter
Ministry of Electricity and Water
Million Gega Joule
Ministry of Oil and Mineral Resources
Ministry of Planning and Development
Mega Watt
Nitrogen dioxide
the Netherlands Climate Change Studies Assistance Programme
Non-Governmental organization
Net Irrigation Requirement
Non-methane volatile organic compounds
Nitrous Oxides
National Water Resources Authority
Degree Celsius
Oregon State University
Precipitation
Public Electricity Corporation
Project Management Unit
Solar Home System
Relative humidity
The Red Sea Convergence Zone
Supreme Council for Oil and Mineral Resources
Sulphur dioxide
Sunshine duration
Tonne oil equivalent
United Kingdom Meteorological Office
United Nation Development Progrmme
United Nation Framework on Climate Change Convention
Vulnerability and Adaptation
World Health Organization
Wind speed
Yemen Liquefied Natural Gas Company
Yield Reduction
I
Executive Summary
Introduction
As Yemen became a party to the United Nation Framework Convention of Climate
Change (UNFCCC), it should prepare its initial National Communication which is
considered as the first step in the actual implementation of the UNFCCC in Yemen.
National circumstances
The national circumstances of Yemen during 1994 are summarized in Table ES.1. Yemen
has high susceptibility to natural disaster which is exhibited in the tectonic processes that
formed the mountains of Yemen. The high vulnerability of mountain ecosystem creates
large difficulties in the economic use of territory and requires constant realization of
complex protective measures, especially when it is augmented by possible climate
change. A consequence of the country's geographical location with respect to the equator,
Yemen is located in arid and semi arid zone, which is considerably vulnerable to climate
change. Redistribution of precipitation and increasing frequency and intensity of drought
with the possible increase in air temperature in the country entail negative consequences,
particularly in water resources management and agriculture.
Table SE.1 - National Circumstances
Criteria
Unit
1994
Area
000 Km2
555
Population
000,000
14.9
%
23.2
000 Km2
16.6
%
20-30
Years
57.5
%
44
000,000 USD
5291.1
USD $
355
Estimated share of the informal sector in the economy in GDP
%
20-30*
Share of industry in GDP
%
20.66
Share of services in GDP
%
36.1**
Share of agriculture in GDP
%
21.7
000
000
000
000 Km2
1,151
6,940
171
24
Urban population as percent of total population
Land area used for agricultural purposes, (cultivable land)
Population in absolute poverty
Life expectancy at birth
Literacy rate
GDP
GDP per capita
Livestock population
Cattle
Sheep and goats
Camels
Forest area
Source: The Republic of Yemen Statistical Year- Book, 1996.
*
Informal sector in Yemeni economy, Ministry of Planning, Sana'a, March 1996
**)
Services sector includes: trade, restaurant, hotel, transport, storage, communication, supply,
insurance, personal services and society services.
J
Executive Summary
Yemen is a least developed country. The negative consequences of the Gulf war of
1990/1991 in addition to domestic factors (civil war etc.) led to continuous and high
increase in the deficit of the government budget, the balance of trade and the balance of
payments. As a result, the country experienced slow economic growth, high rate of
inflation, high level of unemployment and the reduction of government expenditures on
public education and health services. This resulted in sharp deterioration in the standards
of living. In Yemen as in other developing countries, climate change is crucial to the
extent that it can affect the national objectives like protection of environment and
sustainable development. Yemen`s main national priorities are to improve its physical
infrastructure, develop its human resources, increase economic growth and accelerate
social development, education & public health and conserve and protect the environment
from deterioration and pollution. Actions in the context of climate change hence are
necessary for all kinds of development programs and they certainly require international
assistance. Inclusion of issues related to climate change in future planning and strategies
of energy development and measures to control the emission level of GHG are feasible
and more beneficial in case of Yemen with only 38% of population electrified and total
primary energy consumption in 1995 of 4.171 million TOE. Organization of climate
change studies and UNFCCC activities in Yemen is the responsibility of Environmental
Protection Council (EPC), established as the highest national authority promoting and
coordinating all efforts related to environmental protection.
Greenhouse Gases (GHG) inventory
The year 1995 was used as a reference year for Yemen's GHG inventory due to the high
uncertainty of 1994's information as a result of the April-July 1994 civil war. The
greenhouse gas emissions for the three major GHGs, as required by Second Conference
of Parties (COP2) guideline, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide
(N2O) of the Republic of Yemen amounted to 11,358.1 Gg, 128.3 Gg, and 15.0 Gg,
respectively. Taking CO2 removal into account, the total emission of CO2 is sequestered
from the amount of 10,513.7 Gg, resulting in 844 Gg net emission of CO2. These figures
are exclusive of the emission from the international bunker (114.4 Gg) and from
combustion of biomass (353.3 Gg). Table SE2, summaries national GHG source and
Sink (Gg), 1995.Yemen's emission profile by gas type for 1995, indicates that CO2 is the
main GHG emitted in Yemen followed by CH4 as the second major emitted GHG.
Observation, research & impacts
Data on hydro meteorological, crop productivity, sea level, environmental issues and
hazards are scattered in various ministries and agencies and hence are not always easy to
obtain. More exchange of information between ministries and/or agencies and the
establishment of a database is urgently needed. Data requirements for IPCC methodology
necessitate the existence of reliable databanks for many sectors.
Due to the variety of sectors targeted, the funds made available for studies conducted
during the preparation of National Communication were not sufficient to undertake any
new, medium or large scale scientific research. The study built on prior and ongoing
studies, compiled the available information and undertook some small, well defined
studies to fill the existing gaps for GHG inventory and abatement analysis. Nevertheless
K
Executive Summary
and despite the limitation of the data, financial resources, methodologies etc. an advanced
level research project was carried out, using a number of models for sectoral analysis.
Yemen's natural systems and economy generally suffer from the mounting pressure of
high population growth rate, limited natural resources and economic problems. All these
contribute to make Yemen highly vulnerable to climate change. Impacts on key socioeconomic sectors, water resources, agriculture and Coastal zone resources have been
identified and assessed over representative area.
As in many Arab countries, water has a high social, economic and political value, yet the
most vulnerable sector to climate change is water resources in terms of quantity and
quality. The available runoff for spate irrigation indicates a deficit in the coverage of
spate irrigation water demand as a result of fluctuation in the runoff. The spate irrigation
water demand under maximum hot climate quantified as 595 MCM/year, while the
available flow for spate irrigation under the same condition is only 105 MCM/year, which
is less than a quarter of the demand. This shortage in available spate runoff would lead to
rapid increase in groundwater abstraction for agriculture to supplement spate irrigation.
Unfortunately, the groundwater aquifer in the study area would not be able to support that
demand. Groundwater model predicted that the shortage in groundwater supply to
irrigated agriculture would start from year 1997. Withdrawal of poor quality water out of
the aquifer continues to increase with slight fluctuation due to recharge pulses. The gap
between groundwater demand and supply in year 2050 is of about 162 MCM (66%) under
UKHI scenario. Drying up and the abandonment of agriculture in Abyan Delta can be
anticipated as it is running short of water. This implies that the whole rural economy is
vulnerable to declining water availability.
All climate change scenarios resulted in simulated decreases in wheat and potatoes yields
in the two main agroclimatic zones used. The degree of the expected reduction in the
production, however, varies from one site to another. Although higher wheat and potato
yields can be obtained by practicing supplemental irrigation, water resources scarcity puts
a binding constraint on agriculture production. These imply that climate change may
bring about substantial reduction in the agricultural production of wheat and potato.
Moreover, it would be very difficult to replace Qat (cash, profitable crop) by other crops.
The impact on coastal zone done over a pilot area was assessed after delineation of "the
risk zone" the region expected to be submerged in sea water. Total losses was estimated
as US$ 1.3 billion. Beside the impact on the biological communities and the shoreline
beaches, damage to the city of Hodeidah part alone was estimated at about 74 million US
dollars.
Mitigation, adaptation and awareness
Two mitigation options to reduce GHG emission have been assessed, including both the
demand and supply side of energy sector. The measures and assumption included in the
demand side option are: switch to energy/equipment with lower GHG emissions
(substituting electric for kerosene and LPG lamps, solar water heating for electric heating,
LPG stoves for Fuelwood stoves) for household sector (urban and rural).
L
Executive Summary
For transport sector: reduce taxes on new vehicles, raise taxes on old vehicles, switch to
natural gas technology and solar technology. For industrial sector; fuel switching to
natural gas and renewable energy, rational use of energy while for commercial sector,
switch to energy/equipment with lower GHG emissions, energy-efficient equipment. For
energy required for agriculture, switch to solar irrigation systems.
On the Supply-side mitigation option, is to switch over the use of fuel on a gradual basis
for the electrical power sector (largest contributor to GHG emissions), and further from
the use of fuel oil for power generation to the use of natural gas in high-efficiency
combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plants. This gradual switching will reduce the
quantity of burnt fuel from 80% to 5% by the year 2020, which in turn will drive a
considerable reduction in emissions. Increasing the use of solar electricity for remote rural
areas will also have the same effect. Considerations for both options are the same, except
for the capacity value of the new CCGT-power plant. The average emission reduction
from baseline scenario for option (1),with a 100 MW CCGT power plant capacity, will be
around 2935 million kg/year of CO2. This gives per reduction a leveled cost of 21.27
US$/ton (real 1995 US$) and a leveled cost of 62.42 million US$/year. For option (2),
with a 200 MW CCGT power plant capacity and a conversion efficiency of at least 52%,
the average emission reduction will be around 3252 million kg/year of CO2 which gives
per reduction a leveled cost of 21.72 US$/ton (real 1995 US$) and a leveled annual cost
of 70.64 million US$. The cost benefit analysis shows that there is a cost benefit ratio of
0.45 if option (1) is considered and 0.42 if option (2) is considered.
Besides listing proposed general measures that could be applicable to national level for
water resources, agricultural production and coastal zone area, specific priority measures
were assessed for pilot studied areas covered by the studies without attempting of
extrapolate these adaptive measures to a National level. Moreover, for implementing the
suggested measures, costs and/or feasibility study should be undertaken first.
Priority measures proposed for water resources in Abyan delta include: improvement in
water use efficiency (irrigation) which has minimal costs, increase groundwater recharge
through capturing the surplus runoff that goes to the Sea by structural means and
desalination option as a source for Aden water supply instead of Abyan delta wellfield.
Lifting of wheat price subsidy in semi-humid areas, will make rainfed wheat more
attractive to farmers. Great attention should be paid to soil drainability in potato fields,
when the wet scenario will prevail. Cost-effective drainage systems should be considered.
In arid and semi-arid areas, the need for both supplemental and conventional irrigation is
more likely, due to water shortage for both potato and wheat. Additional investment will
be needed for installing necessary irrigation management facilities. Increased attention
must be paid to conserving scarce water supply as further deterioration of water resources
related to climate change is predicted. Severe pressure on water will be posed by climate
change, where the available water resources are insufficient. Consequent socio-economic
measures should be given due consideration. The chemical plant protect will have to be
increased carefully so that waters resources are not polluted. Thus, climate change would
provide better conditions for the development of pests, and increase the cost of protection.
Insufficient plant protection measures will reduce the profit of agricultural crops.
M
Executive Summary
The losses associated with do nothing or abandoning about a quarter of the Hodeidah city
amount to some US$ 1,3 billion. The protection required will vary along the coastline
according to local requirements, and will comprise a number of elements: for southern
part of the city, raising of the level of the rock revetment; for fishing port, raising of area
level, in the long term probably strengthening of the breakwaters; for north of fishing
port, raising of the level of the rock revetment; for Cornish area, raising of the level of
the wall, check on the stability of the foundations of the sea wall since it is expected that
the beach will be eroded away; and Construction of a sea wall at the northern part of the
city area. Summing up, considerable strengthening of the existing constructions will be
required over a length of approximately 10 km. Assuming an average cost of US$ 2
million per km the total cost will amount to US$ 20 million for full protection provision.
The level of awareness of climate change phenomenon and its effect is very low in
Yemen. The process of gathering appropriate literature on climate change and making it
available to policy makers is actively on. However, more assistance (financial and
technical) is required to support meaningful climate change research building capacity.
Building national capacity in climate change is likely to create more interest in and ensure
meaningful debate on the issue of climate change in Yemen.
RESEACH NEEDS
Proper data organization is vital to address climate change issues. There is a need to
centralize all climate change related data. The location of such an important data bank
should rest with the Environmental Protection Council, the focal point of UNFCCC in
Yemen.
There are significant financial constraints in conducting longitudinal or even mediumscale scientific research (e.g., gathering field data). Such constraints adversely affect the
construction, validity and reliability of national studies. Although the findings of pilot
studies that focus on a “representative” area can be generalized, the results may not be
totally realistic. Only three studies were conducted over selected sites to assess the
negative impact of climate change. There is a great need for further understanding of its
likely impacts and adaptation at a national level for sectors covered during the preparation
of the initial National Communication using a more integrated approach. More
comprehensive research is required to complete work on impact and adaptation for
sectors partially analyzed during the preparation of the initial National Communication as
well as other specified sectors not covered yet, but likely to be effected by climate
change, such as human health, desertification and land degradation. Impact assessment of
climate change in these sectors should be done on a priority basis. Sufficient funding is
needed to create an information pool and to make available the appropriate software
programs for data analysis, documentation and dissemination, especially as climate
change is a new subject in Yemen. Expertise in research related to climate change is
important and Yemen requires developing research capacity in various related disciplines.
The few studies conducted for preparation of this initial National Communication
provided indication of possible areas where further work ought to be done. Moreover
gaps in information for these sectors are reported.
N
Executive Summary
Table SE.2 Summary of national GHG source and Sink(Gg), 1995
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CO2
CATEGORIES
Emissions
11358.09
Total National Emissions and Removals
1 Energy
9968.28
A Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)
9968.28
1 Energy Industries
2402.62
CO2
3
4
5
N2O
Removals
-10513.77128.31 15.02
6.02 0.12
0.00
2.48 0.12
0.10 0.02
2 Manufacturing Industries and Construction 577.19
2
CH4
0.02
NOx
CO
NMVOC SO2
89.06
88.13
87.85
6.37
451.95
433.93
433.50
0.48
92.94
85.36
79.92
0.16
0.08
0.04
0.005 1.55
7.69
7.36
2.92
3 Transport
3808.45
1.12
4 Other Sectors
3180.03
1.25
5 Other
B Fugitive Emissions from Fuels
0.00
0.00
3.54
1 Solid Fuels
2 Oil and Natural Gas
0.00
3.54
Industrial Processes
546.67
0.00
0.00
A Mineral Products
546.67
B Chemical Industry
C Metal Production
D Other Production
0.00
E Production of Halocarbons and Sulfur Hexafluoride
F Consumption of Halocarbons and Sulfur Hexafluoride
Solvent and Other Product Use
Agriculture
0.00
91.22
A Enteric Fermentation
86.27
B Manure Management
4.09
C Rice Cultivation
D Agricultural Soils
E Prescribed Burning of Savannas
F Field Burning of Agricultural Residues
0.85
G Other
Land-Use Change & Forestry
843.14
-10513.770.02
A Changes in Forest and Other Woody
656.72
-10297.49
Biomass Stocks
0.06
0.04
64.10 403.20 76.27
15.83 29.75 3.46
2.92
0.00
0.29
0.43
5.44
4.44
0.00
0.00
0.29
0.00
0.43
0.00
NE
5.44
7.57
5.91
4.44
0.33
0.33
B Forest and Grassland Conversion
C Abandonment of Managed Lands
D CO2 Emissions and Removals from Soil
0.0001 0.003 0.14
E Other (please specify)
6 Waste
A Solid Waste Disposal on Land
B Wastewater Handling
C Waste Incineration
D Other (please specify)
7 Other (please specify)
Memo Items
International Bunkers
Aviation
Marine
CO2 Emissions from Biomass
186.42
0.02
1.66
14.13 0.93
17.88
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.04
14.06
0.03
0.93
17.88
0.0001 0.003 0.14
-216.28
0.00
0.00
31.06 0.78
26.03
5.03 0.78
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
114.35
18.12
96.23
353.29
0.00
0.01 0.001 2.00
0.0001 0.001 0.08
0.01 0.001 1.92
1.30
0.03
1.28
0.27
0.01
0.26
0.00
Empty box: Not applicable
Shaded box: Not Estimated because unavailability of input data
O
1. INTRODUCTION
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed
in June 1992 in the Rio "Earth Summit". The ultimate objective of the convention is to
stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would obstruct
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
Yemen ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change on 21
February 1996, and it entered into force on 21 May 1996. By becoming a Party to the
Convention, Yemen accepted a number of commitments like other developed and
developing countries. These include:
- develop, periodically update, publish and make available to the Conference of Parties
(CoP) of the UNFCCC, national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources
and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol,
using comparable methodologies;
- formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national programs containing
measures to mitigate climate change
- measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change; and
- communicate to the CoP information related to implementation of the convention, in
accordance with article 12.
As a Least Developed Country (LDC), Yemen may make its Initial National
Communication at its discretion. Like other developing countries Yemen lacked financial
resources to start the implementation of its commitments to the Convention and to prepare
its first national communication to the CoP. In accordance with Article 4.3 of the
UNFCCC, the Government of Yemen had requested the GEF and the Netherlands to help
the country financially to prepare its Initial National Communication to the CoP.
Under the project YEM/97/G31/A/1G/99 " Enabling Yemen to prepare its First National
Communication in Response to its commitments to the UNFCCC", Yemen was provided
with financial support by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) through the United
Nations Development Program, its implementing agency, to complete:
- GHG inventory
- The GHG abatement analysis
- Vulnerability assessment and adaptation analysis on the coastal zone (targeted site)
- Formulating programs and policy frameworks for effective response measures to
climate change, especially with respect to the abatement of GHG emissions and
enhancement of sinks.
Under a project entitled "Climate Change Country Study in Yemen" activity number: ww
094501-yem.1, The Netherlands Climate Change Studies Assistance Program (NCCSAP)
provided funding for:
- construction of future climate change scenarios,
- the vulnerability assessment and adaptation analysis on the agricultural production
(selected crops).
- the vulnerability assessment and adaptation analysis on the water resource sector
(targeted site)
- the Project Management Unit (PMU) and the preparation of the Initial National
Communication of the Republic of Yemen.
1
INTRODUCTION
The preparation of the national communication was the first step in the actual
implementation of the UNFCCC in Yemen. A series of problems arose while conducting
the climate change studies; including constraints on funding, human resources and
technical assistance, and a lack of scientific research. Significant constraints to conduct
longitudinal or even medium-scale scientific research (i.e. including gathering field data);
adversely affect the construction, validity, and reliability of these studies. Although the
findings of pilot studies that focus on a "representative" area can be generalized, the
results may not be totally realistic. Sufficient funding is needed to create an information
pool and to make available the appropriate software programs for data review, analysis,
documentation, and dissemination. The technical assistance available for enabling
activities was inadequate for a country that is just beginning climate change studies and
that greatly needs scientific capacity building. Decrease in the uncertainty of study results
was achieved through making the project timetable period more flexible to allow teams to
verify their data collection and techniques more than once.
Despite the odds and limitations, the additional efforts of bilateral donor and national
teams have accelerated the development of expertise in each sector involved in the
preparation of the national communication, enhanced the institutional capacity in these
fields, and increased the awareness of people and institutions concerning the UNFCCC
and the Global Warming issue.
The study results obtained by various local teams of experts are the basis for this National
Communication. An overview of the national circumstances that influence climate change
response capacity is given in Chapter 2. Reports of the results of GHG national inventory
for year 1995 are given in Chapter 3. The remaining sections outline the general
description of steps, including; systematic observations, impact of climate change on
selected economic sectors, abatement analysis, adaptation to anticipate climate change,
and other information.
2
2. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1995
Yemen is a least developed country and has high susceptibility to natural disasters which
is exhibited in the tectonic processes that formed the mountains of Yemen and caused
immense volcanic eruptions from the beginning of the Neozoic Age (some 70 million
years ago) to the present. The Arabian plate, which separated from the African continent
to form the Red Sea, still moves eastward a few centimeters each year. Today, there is no
volcanic eruption, but there is high degree of seismicity. The severest earthquake of this
century hit the Dhammar region in 1982, taking more than 2500 lives and affecting more
than 265,000 people in 1072 villages and hamlets. The latest earthquake (tremor),
measured 4.5 on the Richter Scale, occurred near Ibb in November 1991 and killed 26
people. The intensity of slope process contributes to landslide occurrence and
development of erosion, desertification, rockiness, salinition of lands, water scarcity and
flashy floods. In 1993, Aden suffered major floods, which killed 12 people and caused
extensive damage to property and the city's aging drainage and sewerage systems. The
high vulnerability of mountain ecosystem creates large difficulties in the economic use of
territory and requires constant realization of complex protective measures, especially
when it is augmented by possible global climate change. Table 2.1. presents information
on the national circumstances of the Republic of Yemen in 1994.
Table 2.1 - National Circumstances
Unit
1994
Area
000 Km2
555
Population
000,000
14.9
%
23.2
000 Km2
16.6
%
20-30
Years
57.5
%
44
000,000 USD
5291.1
USD $
355
Estimated share of informal sector in the economy in GDP
%
20-30*
Share of industry in GDP
%
20.66
Share of services in GDP
%
36.1**
Share of agriculture in GDP
%
21.7
000
000
000
000 Km2
1,151
6,940
171
24
Criteria
Urban population as percent of total population
Land area used for agricultural purposes, (cultivable land)
Population in absolute poverty
Life expectancy at birth
Literacy rate
GDP
GDP per capita
Livestock population
Cattle
Sheep and goats
Camels
Forest area
Source: The Republic of Yemen Statistical Year- Book, 1996.
*
Informal sector in Yemeni economy, Ministry of Planning, Sana'a, March 1996
**)
Services sector includes: trade, restaurant, hotel, transport, storage, communication, supply,
insurance, personal services and society services.
3
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1995
2.1. Geography
2.1.1. Location and size
The Republic of Yemen constitutes the southwestern portion of the Arabian Peninsula
lying between latitude 12o - 20oN and longitude 41o-54oE. It covers an area of
approximately 555,000 km2 excluding Ar Rub Al Khali Desert, located towards the
northeastern edge of the country. Apart from the mainland, the country includes many
islands; the largest are Socotra in the Arabian Sea and Kamaran in the Red Sea. Coastal
line of about 2500 kms faces the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden in the south and the
Red Sea in the West. To the North, the Country is bordered by Saudi Arabia and to the
East by Oman.
Figure 2.1a Location of Yemen
2.1.2. Population size and density
According to the 1994 census, the total population of the Republic of Yemen was
14,871,807, distributed over 2,162,847 households with an average of 6.74 persons per
household. The annual average growth rate of population is 3.7%. The majority of people
are rural with an estimated 76.53 % living in the countryside spanning widely scattered
settlements in nearly 65,000 villages and hamlets. The population density over the
country is 28 person per square kilometer. The uneven distribution of population between
governorates has created difficulties maintaining essential services, such as electricity,
water, health and education, in the majority of small settlements all over the country.
Unbalanced and unsustainable socio-economic development has been the main cause of
migration of population internally and abroad from rural areas. The migration from rural
areas has adversely affected agricultural production on the one hand and has caused
concentration of population in a few big cities on the other. This has fomented socioeconomic troubles by exerting additional pressure on civic services, e.g. education,
health, water, and electricity, in urbanized centers. A balanced strategy that focuses on the
4
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1995
development of rural areas and encourages establishment of secondary cities is required
in order to make population distribution effective to serve development processes.
2.1.3. Physical Features
The country comprises many different topographic features: mountains, plateaus, coastal
plains, deserts, islands, etc. These can be grouped into three main geographical regions,
shown in Figure (2.1b).
Figure 2.1b geographical regions
1.
2.
The coastal plain is broad (30-60km), flat to slightly sloping and undulating, with
maximum elevation of only a few hundred meters above sea level. Alluvial and
aeolian deposits typically characterize its surface. The coastal plains have a hot
climate, with generally low to very low rainfall. Nevertheless, the plains contain
important agricultural zones due to the numerous wadis (valleys) that drain the
adjoining mountainous and hilly hinterlands. The wadis facilitate spate irrigation and
provide recharge to the porous and permeable Quaternary sedimentary aquifers of the
plains.
The Yemen mountain massif constitutes an uplifted zone of very irregular and
dissected topography with elevations ranging from a few hundred meters (foothills)
to 3766 m.a.s.l. (Jabal Nabi Shuayb near Sana'a). Accordingly, the climate varies
from cool at the highest altitudes to warm at lower elevations. The Western and
Southern Slopes of Yemen mountain massif are the steepest and enjoy moderate to
rather high rainfall (300-500 mm/year, but locally more than 1000 mm/yr.), because
they are favorably oriented in relation to the movement of moist air masses. As a
result, rain-fed agriculture is practiced widely on numerous terraced mountain slopes,
supporting rather high population densities. The Eastern Slopes show a
comparatively smoother topography and the elevation range between 2000 to 1000
meter above sea level (m.a.s.l). As a result of greater distance between the sources of
moisture and unfavorable topographic orientation, the average annual rainfall is low
5
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1995
3.
and decreases rapidly from west to east. Population is sparse in the area of the
Eastern Slopes. There are a number of important mountain plains within the Yemen
Mountain Massif, the Highland Plains, where physical conditions are favorable for
sustaining a relatively large population.
The eastern plateau region elevations decrease from 1800-1200 m at the main
water divides to sea level at the coast and to approximately 900 m at the margins of
the Ar Rub Al Khali desert. The Wadi Hadramout and its tributaries relatively dissect
the plateau, in particular. The climate in general is hot and dry, with average rainfall
typically below 100mm, except in the higher parts along the southern Hadramout
arch. Nevertheless, floods after rare rainfall events are usually devastating.
Population density is low, except in the Wadi Hadramout canyon where large areas
of agricultural land are irrigated by groundwater pumped from aquifer rocks below
the wadi bed.
2.1.4. Yemeni Islands:
There are more than 115 islands in Yemen with distinct climatic and natural
characteristics. Among those located in the Red Sea, Kamaran is the biggest, and Mayoon
Island in the Bab al Mandab strait, has strategic importance. Socotra is the largest Yemeni
Island (3650 km2) in the Arabian Sea and it has a more exuberant flora and fauna than any
other region in the Arabia. There are more than 112 Yemeni islands scattered in the Red
Sea.
2.1.5. Climate
Yemen has a predominantly semi-arid to arid climate, with rainy seasons during spring
and summer, and with high temperatures prevailing throughout the year in low-altitude
zones. This is primarily a consequence of the country's location with respect to the
equator. It causes solar radiation to be of high intensity and during spring and summer it
brings the area under the influence of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that is
significantly effected by the Indian Ocean and causes the monsoon wind system, bringing
about the main rainy season during summer (July-September). The Red Sea Convergence
Zone (RSCZ) contributes to the spring rainy season (March-May). Light rains observed
during the winter months are attributed to a similar convergence effect around the
Mediterranean Sea.
The spatial pattern of annual rainfall varies from year to year. The controlling
topographic factors, however, are strong enough to produce pronounced patterns that are
fairly stable for long term averages of annual rainfall. The isohyet map shown in Figure
2.2 gives a clear and consistent picture of the spatial pattern of annual rainfall. Figures
higher than 250 mm are only observed in the western and southern parts of the Yemen
Mountain Massif, with a maximum near Ibb (1510 mm). Anywhere else the average
annual rainfall is low. Comparison of rainfall averages during the eighties with longer
term average (for stations with longer records) suggest that this period may have been 10
- 20% drier than average, although this may be variable for different regions in the
country.
6
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1995
Figure 2.2. Distribution of annual rainfall (Isohyet map)
Table 2.2 presents a summary of meteorological parameters for selected meteorological
stations. It merely gives an impression of spatial variability. Figure 2.3 depict average
annual temperature distribution over Yemen together with average monthly values of
temperature for a station at the coast (Hodeidah), two stations on Mountain Massif (one
relatively dry, (Sana'a) and one relatively humid (Taiz), and a station in the hyper-arid
interior zone (Seyun). Average temperatures are dominantly controlled by elevation with
approximately linear relation with an average temperature gradient 0.6oC per 100-meter
difference in elevation. Proximity to the sea and moisture content of the air are the
controlling factors determining the value of annual range of temperature (difference
between average temperature of warmest and coolest months of the year). This is also true
of average daily temperature range, which is modest near the coast, 10 oC but does exceed
20 oC at higher elevations and in the arid interior (Seyun).
Table 2.2. Climatological averages.
STATION
ELEVATION
(m + m.s.l.)
ANNUAL TOTALS OR AVERAGES (1960-1990)
P
R
T
RH
WS
SSD
ETp
Hodeidah
10
98.4
503.3
28.9
70.0
8.9
8.7
2662
Seyun
700
67.2
495.8
25.9
48.0
5.8
8.7
2338
Taiz
1350
520.8
487.4
21.5
56.0
7.6
8.3
2003
Sana'a
2216
216.0
504.8
17.9
46.0
6.8
8.9
2475
P = total precipitation (mm)
R =Radiation Cal/cm2/day
RH = average relative humidity (%) S = average wind speed (m/s)
Etp = total potential evapotranspiration (mm)
Source: Climate change scenario team report - 2000
7
T = average temperature ( oC)
SSD= average sunshine duration (hrs/day)
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1995
Hodiedah Monthly Mean Temperature
Sana'a Monthly Mean Temperature
25
T oC
20
15
10
5
N
ov
ep
S
Ju
l
ay
ar
30
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
25
T oC
20
15
10
5
Figure 2.3. Distribution of annual Temperature
stations.
8
o
N
ov
ep
S
Ju
l
ay
M
ar
M
Ja
n
N
ov
ep
S
Ju
l
ay
M
ar
0
M
T oC
M
Taiz Monthly Mean Temperature
Soyun Monthly Mean Temperature
Ja
n
M
Ja
n
N
ov
ep
S
Ju
l
M
M
ay
ar
0
Ja
n
T oC
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
C - Average monthly for selected
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1995
Clear skies are predominant during most of the year as is reflected in the records of
sunshine duration. Recorded annual average values between 7-9 hours per day, which
corresponds to 50 to 75% of the theoretical maximum. Solar radiation varies only slightly
over the territory of Yemen, the pronounced difference in temperature regime is
associated with other factors (e.g. elevation) as well.
Relative air humidity shows strong spatial variation. Values between 70-80% are typical
for coastal locations and values of 50-70% for those parts of coastal plains and deltas that
are more than 20kms from the sea. In the mountain regions they are usually between 30
and 60% and it reaches lowest values (20-45%) in the hyper arid interiors.
Average wind speed in a large part of Yemen is low to moderate (3-5 m/s) except on the
coasts and at well-exposed locations in the mountain zones where it reaches 8 m/s..
In terms of aridity (rainfall (P)/evaporation (Eo)), the climate in Yemen is shown to vary
from hyper-arid (deserts, most of the plateau, parts of the coastal plain) to subhumid
(scattered wetter zones on the western and southern slopes), with even humid sites on a
very small scale (Ibb).
Figure 2.4. Climatic zones (aridity)
9
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1995
2.2. National characteristics & resources
2.2.1. Water resources
Yemen is one of the oldest irrigation civilizations in the world where dam irrigation and
rainwater harvesting techniques were developed. In recent times, however, Yemen is
largely arid and semi-arid, with limited rainfall and freshwater resources. Climate change
is anticipated to alter the hydrologic cycle and is unlikely to relieve the limitations placed
by water scarcity upon the region (IPCC, 1997). An increase in global temperature may
have severe impact on the region, such as accelerated desertification, diminished supply
of freshwater, increased severity and frequency of droughts, and adverse effects on
agriculture (World Bank, 1997).
Yemen's total annually renewed water resources are estimated at about 2,100 Million
Cubic Meters (MCM), that is, the available resources per person amount to a little more
than 150 m3 each year. This is grossly incomparable with that of the Middle East and
North Africa region's average of 1250 m3, leave alone comparing the worldwide average
of 7,500 m3. Resources also are unevenly distributed, 90% of the population has less than
90 m3 annually. As the country has no natural lakes, and no perennial rivers, the
prevalence of groundwater in water resources 70% of renewed resources (1,500 MCM) is
groundwater recharge. In general, all surface water sources in Yemen are harnessed and
exploited, and in some areas groundwater is already being exploited beyond the level of
recharge. Current annual abstraction and recharge rate (1995) of the three main aquifer
complex in Yemen are shown in Table (2.3).
Table 2.3. Current annual groundwater recharge and abstraction rate
Aquifer complex
Recharge Rate
Abstraction Rate
MCM/year
Coastal plain Quaternary aquifer
Cretaceous Sandstone Complex aquifer
Highland Plains aquifers
Total
925
500
100
1,525
MCM/year
1,035
575
500
2,110
Source: WRAY 35 report, Van der Gun et al 1995
At the national level, in 1995, the net supply almost equaled the annual renewable
resources (Alderwish, 2000). At regional level, however, the situation is different, as
some areas are overdue in their sources. The most stressed area is the western part of the
country (the mountains, escarpments and coastal plains) where more than 90% of the
population lives. In 1995, the groundwater use in Tehama Plain was 800 MCM while the
recharge was only 500 MCM, that's a 60% overdraft. With usable storage of about 15,000
MCM, as the present rate of extraction the area will dry up within 50 years. In the densely
populated highland valleys and plains, the situation is even worse. In the Sana'a basin,
where 10% of the population live (1.2 million people), the use in 1993 was 184 MCM and
the recharge was 42 MCM, i.e., more than 300% overdraft (Alderwish, 1996). The main
incentive for overexploitation of groundwater is the fluctuation of rainfall and
consequently the runoff (frequent short periods of drought) over the last decades.
The exception of this picture of overdraft is the sparsely populated south-eastern area of
the country, 500 kms from the capital, where recent resource assessments have revealed a
10
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1995
water resource that could be as much as 289 MCM of annual recharge, together with vast
storage (Van der Gun et al, 1995), equivalent to several hundred years of supply under
drought conditions.
Water storage development (renewable resources) is mainly dependent on the runoff
generated during the rainy seasons. Estimate of mean annual runoff for total runoff
producing catchments in Yemen is about 2,000 MCM/year. Apart from Marib Dam, all
other existing dams are of less than 15m height. Thus, most dams have little storage
capacity and the total storage capacity of surface water is minimal. Significant water
storage is available only in groundwater aquifers which take place through "indirect"
infiltration of runoff through wadi channels.
The critical position of water resources is affecting Yemen's urban population and rural
economy (agriculture). It is likely to affect soon the manufacturing sector and mining,
which depend heavily on water for their production process. Additional pressure is being
caused due to climate change and will lead to further deterioration of the situation and
that will be equal in effect to a national disaster.
2.2.2. Agriculture and Forest
Because of its fertile soil and relatively high rainfall in some regions, especially in the
western part of the country, Yemen has the greatest potential for agricultural production
among the countries in the Arabian Peninsula. However, this potential is threatened by a
number of factors including soil erosion, problems of water supply, pollution and global
climate change.
Farming in a wide range of agro-ecology zones characterizes Yemen's agriculture,
however, most of the country's farmland lies under semi-arid climate. Consequently,
although irrigation, both full and supplementary, is an essential practice for raising crop,
more than half the cultivated area remains "rain-fed". Arable land totals only 3%
(1660972 ha, in 1995) of the Republic. In about 60% of the cultivated land are grown
cereals, mostly sorghum, millet and wheat; while pulses, horticultural and cash crops are
grown in some 30% of the cropped area and provide for internal consumption. Food
security issues have begun to assume an increasing importance in Yemen as the country’s
dependence on food import is on the rise. These issues are directly or indirectly linked to
poverty alleviation, another major issue facing the country. The agricultural development
priorities, as reflected in Yemen’s five-year plans, placed greater emphasis on increasing
crop and livestock production to meet the domestic food demand and, if possible, to
export (MPD, 1996). At the same time it called for increasing self-sufficiency and
improving food security, with reliance on imports amounting to about 70 percent of the
national food supply.
The production of cereals has been erratic due to its dependence on rainfall. It peaked in
1993, and reached 833,846Million tons during the period 1990-1997. Wheat, compared
with other cereals has shown the highest growth, but is not adequate even for meeting
domestic needs. Although yields of the major cereal crops increased in the early 1990s,
they have continuously decreased since 1995. The decline observed in 1996 was
attributed to the floods, which affected many rural areas. The self-sufficiency ratio of
c
11
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1995
cereal declined from 62 percent in 1980 to less than 30 percent in 1995. This was mainly
due to government subsidies to imported wheat and less rainfall to support rainfed crops.
During this period, the production of oil seeds and pulses was also on the decline. The
production of fruit and vegetables, however, has continued to be on the rise year after
year and is almost close to achieving self-sufficiency.
According to the preliminary results of the household budget survey (CSO publication,
1998), the proportion of households below the food poverty line amounted to 16% of the
population. But on looking at the upper poverty line, it appeared that almost 30% of the
households throughout the country do not have enough income to meet their food and
other basic requirements.
The government of Yemen has adopted a reform program of adjustment measures to
revitalize the economy. These measures will have an impact on the agricultural sector, as
it will squeeze farmer's margins. Prices for agricultural inputs and outputs are going to be
affected by the removal of diesel subsidy and the replacement of the import ban on
vegetables and fruit with a tariff system. The adjustment measures also cover the current
system to subsidize wheat import. These are likely to increase the on-farm cost of
irrigation and machinery, reduce the prices of vegetables and fruits and increase the prices
of wheat. The scope of income effects will depend on how farmers can adjust their
production to the new policy.
Generally speaking, agriculture in Yemen is mostly done on a small scale and is intended
only for family subsistence. A recent agricultural economic policy reform program has
led to significant positive aspects of agricultural sector performance and a tangible
increase in agricultural production.
The present total area of forestland is estimated at about 24,000 square kilometer and
mainly concentrated in zones of sufficient rainfall. Most of the forestland is privately
owned.
2.2.3. Coastal zone & Marine resources
The coastal areas of Yemen are substantially developed and more development is
expected in the decades to come, particularly in the field of free economic zones,
industrial complexes, fisheries and trade. The ongoing accelerated sea level rise (ASLR)
has already aggravated the existing erosion problem and future rise will pose new
challenges to the management of the coastal zone. The coastline of Yemen stretches over
a length of 2500kms. The nature has endowed it with numerous habitats of ecological and
economic importance and natural harbours, such as Hodeidah, Mukha, Aden and
Mukalla.
The fish fauna of the Yemen Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden/Arabian Sea is mainly of
Indo-Pacific origin. Temperature increase would negatively affect reef fish through the
increasing of coral reef bleaching where fish are found "live". A total of 65 families and
416 species of fish were identified in the Yemeni Red Sea. Fishes in the Socotra
Archipelago have 35 families, which contain a total of 169 species. The exploitation of
the sea to have fish for local consumption as well as for export is one of the most
c
12
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1995
important national resources. Despite the fact that the level of utilisation of marine
resources in Yemen is still limited, it is concentration on certain species and groups of
organisms that could endanger these species and groups. The standing stocks of demersal
fishes and shrimps in the Yemeni Red Sea are estimated roughly at about 27,000 million
tones. At present, local fishermen using sambuq (large boat) equipped with surface trawl
nets do shrimping.
Utilisation of other resources includes the collection of the molluscan clam for fish bait,
collection of gastropods for their opercula in Khor Omira and Ras Omran. In Socotra,
fishing of the mother of pearl is done for pearl collection. Turtles are killed for their eggs
and meat when they come ashore to breed by locals. Dolphins in Socotra are fished for
bait material, for shark nets and lobster traps. Many species of fish are also fished and
thrown away as by-product.
Marine and coastal flora are used and consumed by different sources. The dome palm
H. thebaica is used as a source of fire wood for cooking, making ropes and mattresses in
Tehama. Domesticated livestock in Tehama, Abyan and Al-Mahra coast heavily grazes
Grass and Reed. Mangroves are used in the form of wood for fuel or construction. It is
also grazed by camels and used as drug.
2.2.4. Other resources
Among the countries of the Arabian peninsula, Yemen is famous for its fertile soil,
relatively high rainfall (in the northern part of the country), a great variety of fauna and
flora and beautiful landscape. These resources, however, are threatened by climate
change. The forecasted increase in average temperature and decrease in the amount of
precipitation will significantly enhance the climate aridity and consequently intensify the
process of desertification. This implies reduction of semi-arid areas. Also soil degradation
will probably occur as a result of precipitation (downpour character) and thus cause the
soil wash off. Finally, irrational use of water resources in irrigation will result in intensive
soil salination and be intensified by increase in temperature and evaporation.
Both the IPCC and the World Health Organization (WHO) have raised concern about
potential adverse effects of climate change on human health. Although no investigation
has been carried out into possible implications of climate change on human health in
Yemen, the appearance of Malaria incidences in cold highland areas is probably one of
these adverse effects on human health.
Other natural resources include crude oil, natural gas, rock salt, marble, and small
deposits of coal, gold, lead, nickel and copper. After years of exploration and drilling,
both the former North and South Yemen became commercial oil producers in 1987. In
1995, the total crude oil production stood at around 360,000 b/d. Yemen has also
identified remarkable natural gas reserves.
13
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1995
2.3. Socio-economic structure
2.3.1. Economy
By international standards, the Republic of Yemen is among the poorest of the world's
nations. With an estimated GNP of $583 per capita in 1990, the United Nations has
classified Yemen in the group of 40 lesser-developed countries. As a consequence of the
economic difficulties the country was experiencing during 1990-1994, the estimated GDP
in 1994 was 5291.1 Million US dollar and the per capita share was only US$ 355. The
fragile and narrow base economy was affected by domestic political factors: realization of
the Country's Unity in May 1990, struggle for establishing a new democratic system to
ensure individual liberties and a multi-party system, mismanagement of the national
economy and a brief civil war in mid 1994. These features have led to substantial increase
in the current expenditure of the government and created unfavorable conditions for rapid
socio-economic development. Coupled with the negative consequences of the Gulf war of
1990/1991, the domestic factors led to continuous and high increase in the deficit of the
government budget, the balance of trade and the balance of payments. As a result, the
country experienced slow economic growth, high rate of inflation, high level of
unemployment and the reduction of government expenditures on public education and
health services. This resulted in sharp deterioration in the standards of living.
The low growth rate reflects varying economic activity performance of various sectors
contributing to the GDP. The degrees of performance for some economic sectors are
summarized in Table (2.4). It is based on the degree of contribution of each sector to the
GDP during 1990-1994. In general, the contribution shares from various sectors to the
GDP were considerably varied. The two major contributors are agriculture and industry
sectors with about 47% share in the total GDP. The contribution of Electricity and Water
sector is almost constant with about one percent, while the Construction sector
contribution remained constant 2.7% between 1990-1995. The contribution from the latter
sectors reflects the degree of provision of basic services and indicates the limited
availability of infrastructure projects, which are in turn indicators of instability and
inconsistency in the production system of economy. There is little change range (1%) in
the contribution of the commodities sectors to the GDP over the period 1990-2000 while
for the services sectors large decrease of the share ranged from 32.3% in 1990 to about
23.7% in 1995. The share of contribution of the government services sector increased
from 15.5% in 1990 to 24.7 in 1995. During the period 1990-1995, the inflation rate
(averaged to 36.1%) was very high, however, during the period 1995-1997 the annual
inflation rates decreased to 28.5%. These rates led to the reduction of the living standards
of people as well as the stagnant state of economy during both periods.
In an attempt to tackle acute economic problems, the government launched an Economic,
Financial and Administrative Reform Program (EFARP) in November 1994. This
Program introduced applying economic and financial policies and measures targeting the
reduction of the government budget deficit and correction in the existing multi-system
exchange of the Yemeni Rails. Also, it tried to activate monetary policies by manipulating
the interest rates and bank credit ceilings and controlling money supply. Since then, the
measures have succeeded in reducing gradually the subsidies granted to the public sector
enterprises. In particular, subsidies for producing electricity and drinking water, fuel
materials, communications and social services have been reduced.
14
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1995
Table 2.4. The degree of performance for various economic sectors over the period
1990-1995, given as share % to GDP.
Sectors
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing
Mining, Quarrying,
Manufacturing
Water & electricity
Construction
1990
24.2
13.6
9.3
1.2
2.7
1995
22.1
14.9
9.7
1.1
2.7
2000
22.7
16.1
8.2
1.1
3.7
Trade
Transport, storage & communication
8.1
14.8
7.2
8.5
7.7
7.8
Producers of Government services
15.5
24.7
24.0
Others
10.6
9.1
8.7
Source: national accounts for years 1990-1999, Central Planning Organization, Sana’a, 1999
Liberalization policy, the government raised the price of the cement produced by the
public sector enterprises. Steps were also taken to consider the state of foreign debt
obligation. In addition, a privatization program has been prepared as part of government’s
new economic restructuring policies. However, the implementation of the program is still
in progress. In general, the implementation of the economic reform policies caused a
noticeable improvement in the economic situation and is expected to continue as long as
the government is determined to exert its efforts to achieve the objectives of the EFARP.
The prediction for the GDP growth rate in the next twenty-five years is around 5.5
percent.
2.3.2. Trade
The main exports of Yemen are crude oil, coffee, hides, skins, and fresh as well as dried
and salted fish. Main imports are textiles and other manufactured goods, petroleum
products, sugar, grain, flour, cement, machinery and chemicals. Despite oil discoveries in
Yemen since 1988 and its dominating export earning (82% in 1994 with a contribution of
14.15% to GDP), the agriculture sector has continued to be a dominant sector in Yemen's
economy, contributing 20.3% of the GDP and provides nearly two-third of employment.
As the two major contributors to the country’s economy are heavily dependent on natural
resources for generating employment, food, income, and foreign exchange, the
phenomenon of climate change is threatening to demolish Yemen’s economy.
Income from the sale of oil amounts to approximately 40 % of Yemen’s total revenue and
is the country’s main source of foreign currency, especially after reduction in expatriate
remittances caused by the return of Yemeni families working abroad. Fluctuations in the
world oil market therefore have significant impact on the economy of the country.
2.3.3. Welfare
The features that characterize the population of a society play an important role in
determining the type and characteristic of economic, social and political activities. These
features have affect not only the determination of development priority and its direction
but also the speed of development. In Yemeni society today a little more than half the
c
15
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1995
population belong to the age group of newborn-14 years. This means that many people
are falling out of work and consequently social, economic and total dependency is very
high and living standards, saving ability, investment, and development are very low.
Moreover, a large increase in social services, particularly in education and health services
during the forthcoming decades, will exert more pressure on the state budget. In 1996, the
country laid down a long-term population strategy and updated the action plan of 1991.
The percentage of old age (65 and over) is 3.3 % of the total population. This implies that
the average longevity of people is low (Table 2.1.), and that their living standards and
health conditions are poor.
In 1990, the illiteracy was estimated at about 66.3%, which decreased to 55.8% by 1994
reflect an increase of people awareness.
Data of working power distribution between sectors indicated a decrease in the
percentage of population working in agricultural sector from 62.3% in 1990 to 50% in
1997 as agriculture became less important, "less profitable" following water (rainfall)
shortage. Consequently, the services and marginal sectors recorded more employment
during 1990-1997. This relates to the fact that any change in climate has direct impact on
population situation under the current production framework and current composition of
working power.
2.4.Overview of the Energy Sector
2.4.1. Resources
The population growth and increasing population densities in Yemen and the parallel rise
of living standard require the energy resources to expand enormously. The primary
energy sector is dominated by fossil fuels and therefore it represents the main source of
GHG emissions.
Crude Oil
Oil is the main source of energy in Yemen and the country's main source of income. In
1995, proven oil reserve was nearly 4 billion barrels.
Natural Gas
With natural gas reserve of 16.9 Trillion cubic feet, Yemen has considerable potential as a
natural gas producer and exporter. The area in which this gas was found represents only
20-30% of the total area presently undergoing exploration. In early 1996, Yemen
Liquefied Natural Gas Company (YLNG) was set up to operate a U$ 5 billion-LNG
venture. A decision has now been taken to prepare for the project, pending the conclusion
of a sales and purchase agreement for the LNG. YLNG project calls for the development
of natural gas reserves in the Marib area where the bulk of Yemen's gas reserve is
concentrated. Transportation of gas via a 320km 34-inch pipeline has the capacity of 830
million cubic feet/day with the LNG facility at the coastal town of Balhaf on the Gulf of
Aden. The plant's base load capacity is 5.3 Million Tons per year over a 25-year period.
Peak production is expected to reach 6.2 Million tons/year. A second 210km 14-inch
pipeline from Marib to Sana'a with a capacity of 100 million cubic feet per day for
Yemen's internal use is also included in the project (MOMR, 2000).
16
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1995
Fuelwood
Fuelwood constitutes a major source of energy, particularly for the rural household in
Yemen. The shortage of electric supply and oil products has forced rural household to
rely on Fuelwood. With increasing energy demand and limited supply of dead wood, the
reliance on live wood has created a serious problem and posed a real danger of
deforestation and the consequent negative impact on economy and environment. Of late,
Fuelwood is being replaced gradually by LPG, which has become the major fuel for
cooking.
There are no precise figures for the actual amount of Fuelwood consumed in Yemen. The
present estimate is that Fuelwood provides 60% of the household energy, as a national
average. The 1995 survey of consumption was estimated to be 2.03 million metric tons
(771,294 TOE - Tons of Oil Equivalent).
Renewable Energy Resources
Yemen enjoys a very diverse natural environment and physical structure; mountainous,
coastal, plateau, desert regions and islands, and consequently a very diverse climate. It
belongs to the Sunbelt regions of earth. There is large potential for solar and wind energy
use. Furthermore, there is a large quantity of agricultural waste that could be used for
electricity production for domestic purposes. These renewable energy resources will be
discussed in more detail below.
a) Solar energy potential
In Yemen, the average annual sunshine hours exceed 3000 hours/year and average
annual global solar insolation is more than 2200 kWh per square meter per year.
The country has the capacity to make solar electricity generated directly from sunlight
using solar cell modules (Photovoltaic modules) replace small applications of
petroleum-fueled generators, grid power and even dry cell batteries. This can especially
be an alternative for the power supply to rural and remote areas for solar home systems,
small industries and institutions, telecommunications, health centers vaccine
refrigeration and lighting, water pumping and other uses.
The potential for using solar thermal energy in Yemen is tremendous. The high solar
insolation and sunshine hours make it possible for the country to exploit all possible
solar thermal energy applications such as solar water heaters, solar crop dryers, solar
cookers, salt production by evaporating ponds, sea water desalination, solar
refrigerators and air conditioners and solar thermal power plants.
Solar thermal power plants are those plants in which solar radiation is converted into
thermal energy by means of solar concentrators. This is carried out by a working fluid
through a conventional process of electricity generation. Since such plants are based on
the concentration of solar radiation to achieve high temperatures necessary for the
thermo-dynamic power plant process, their application areas are restricted to earth
regions with high solar radiation like Yemen. Unlike photovoltaic power plants, very
large amounts of electricity (in the mega watt range) can be generated by means of
solar thermal power plants. Three concepts of solar thermal power plants are now well
known and established: parabolic trough power plants, solar tower power plants and
dish/stirling systems (Al- Sakaf, 1998).
17
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1995
Sites with high insolation level, especially high direct solar radiation, reduce the
amount of fossil fuel to be consumed for a given operation strategy of the plant. There
are many potential sites for the application of solar thermal energy in Yemen, either for
large-scale electricity generation or decentralized power supply (Al-Sakaf, 1999).
b) Wind energy potential
Yemen has a long coastal strip of more than 2500kms with a width of 30-60kms along
the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea. Average annual wind speeds (measured at
10 m height) exceed 8 m/s at most of the coastal sites. There is a great potential for
wind energy conversion at sites on the coastal strip, in addition to the offshore area.
There is also great wind energy potential on Yemeni islands and inland hills and
mountains.
Wind energy converters can efficiently meet the growing electricity demand in Yemen
while providing a number of benefits: a free and widely available fuel source with no
air, soil or water pollution and continually improving technology. Advancements in
wind energy technology have led in recent years to economic feasibility and
competitiveness of wind energy-based electricity generation in comparison with
conventional power generation.
Stand-alone or hybrid wind energy systems (solar and wind) for rural electrification,
water pumping, sea water desalination and wind power injection into isolated power
supply systems as well as large-scale grid-connected electricity generation through
wind farms could be the choice of the Yemeni power sector in future, given the
appropriate framework conditions.
c) Biomass potential
Yemen is an agricultural country with a large amount of waste from agriculture and
breeding products having a huge biomass potential, which can be utilized by
gasification for electricity generation and/or cooking, especially in rural areas.
2.4.2 Primary Energy Production
Oil Sector
Oil production during the period 1994-97 was on an average 343000 barrels per day
(B/D). The production at the end of 1998 had reached 430000 B/D. Yemen's oil
production is expected to go further up in 2000 due to infrastructure investment in
different fields. Yemen's oil ministry expects overall national production to increase to
500000 B/D by the end of 2000, through offering incentives for oil sector investment.
Currently, Yemen has a crude oil refining capacity of 120000 B/D from two small, old
deteriorating refineries. Several companies have contacted Yemen's oil ministry for
constructing a new refinery plant. The different petroleum products (gasoline, diesel,
kerosene, fuel oil, LPG) marketed by the General Corporation for Oil in 1995 amounted
to 3,170,352 metric tons [P& M, 2000].
18
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1995
Power Sector
The state-owned Public Electricity Corporation (PEC) is the body responsible for the
generation, transmission and distribution of electricity. PEC operates three thermal power
plants with heavy oil (mazot)-fired boilers and a number of diesel power stations, with the
former being the major source of generation (about 70%), interconnected in a power
system with around 1000 km 132 kV-transmission lines. The total installed capacity
amounted in 1995 to 757.2 MW and 2422 GWh of total energy generated, Table (2.5).
Table 2.5: 1995-installed capacity, effective capacity, generated energy and fuel used
Plant
Capacity MW
GWh
Fuel
Input Fuel
Generated
MGJ
Installed Effective
a) Interconnected Systems
Steam turbines 435.0
295.0
1866.8
Mazot
25.523
Diesel units
187.0
68.0
280.3
Diesel
1.292
b) Isolated Systems
Urban units
54.5
22.3
89.8
Mazot
0.913
Rural
80.7
38.7
184.7
Diesel
3.383
TOTAL
757.2
424.0
2421.6
31.111
In addition to the electricity generated by PEC, an appreciable amount of electricity is
generated privately by small diesel units either for rural use or to cover the shortages in
urban supply for commercial or industrial purposes (estimated at about 400 GWh
annually).
The General Authority for Rural Electrification and Water (GAREW) was established in
1992. GAREW is responsible for the supply and erection of new electrical network in
rural areas where PEC has no operating system. After completion of the construction of
such networks they are handed over to Local Councils for operation and maintenance. In
1994 only about 19.2% of the rural population had access to electricity compared to
87.3% of urban population.
In addition to shortage in generation, the primitive interconnected system suffers from
high power losses in transmission and distribution (about 25% in 1995) as well as
generation (about 10% in 1995). The power sector is going to witness a significant
restructuring process. The running project on 'Power Sector Reform" and the recently
finished 'Power Generation Master Plan Project' will lead to new advancement and
improvement in this sector.
2.4.3. Total Energy Consumption
The total primary energy consumption in Yemen in 1995 amounted to 4.171 million TOE.
It comes to 3.40 million TOE from oil products and an estimated 771.294 TOE from
Fuelwood consumed by rural community as mentioned earlier.
The major consumers are the household, commercial, industrial, transport and agriculture
sectors. The relative energy consumption by different sectors in 1995 is depicted in
Figure (2.5) About 47% of the total energy consumed is used for transport.
19
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1995
The electricity generated in 1995 amounted to 2422 GWh and the total sold energy to
1572 GWh. The consumption by sectors shown in Figure (2.6) indicates that the
residential and commercial sectors are the largest consumers of electric energy.
Agriculture
2%
Household
35%
Transport
47 %
Industrial
7%
Commercial
10 %
Figure 2.5: Relative energy consumption by sector for 1995
Industrial
17%
Agriculture
1%
Household
43%
Commercial
39%
Figure 2.6 Relative electricity consumption by sector for 1995
2.4.4. Energy Policies
Responsible for the formulation and implementation of energy policies are the Ministry of
Electricity and Water (MEW), the Ministry of Oil and Mineral Resources (MOMR) and
recently, the Environmental Protection Council (EPC) has assumed the responsibility to
c
20
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1995
promote environmental friendly renewable energy resources. The integration of their
policy proposals is undertaken at three levels, namely, the Cabinet, the Ministry of
Planning and Development (MPD), and the Supreme Council for Oil and Mineral
Resources (SCOMR). The Cabinet by definition has the ultimate responsibility for energy
policy. The MPD has both a coordinating and data collecting responsibility. Five-Year
Plans prepared by the MPD define the sectoral objectives and establish comprehensive
long-term energy plans.
For a sustainable development, a strict energy saving policy should be implemented. The
proposals by Bin Ghadi & Mukbel (1996) can be adapted to improve energy efficiency
and saving in different sectors:
- Establishing national legislation in the form of laws, codes and technical guides in
the field of energy.
- Revising import policy and discouraging low-efficiency equipment.
- Establishing tax benefits for using energy conservation systems.
- Encouraging increased energy efficiency through appropriate measures.
- Promoting the use of renewable energy sources. As shown earlier, Yemen has huge
renewable energy potential, especially, solar and wind. The use of renewable energy
sources has the following advantages: reduced fuel consumption/imports, no emissions/
no environmental polluation, conservation of fossil fuel resources and employment in
manufacturing, erection, installation and operation of emerging renewable energy
facilities.
2.5. Decision making structure and Climate Change organization
Yemen is a unitary democratic republic with an elected parliament. The national
legislature consists of House of Representatives (parliament) with 301 members,
representing 301 regions of equal number of population. They are elected by universal
adult suffrage every four years. The major functions of the Parliament are to enact laws
and supervise the Government's administration. The Yemeni legal system is based on
Islamic Sharia'a with origins in the Holy Quran and Sunnah of the Prophet Mohammed,
and tribal customs, though there are government-administered civil courts as well. The
country is administratively divided into 19 governorates and the Capital Sana'a, each
headed by a governor who is appointed on political considerations by the President. Aden
is the economic and commercial center with its free trade zone.
The Environmental Protection Council (EPC) was established in 1990 as a main body to
formulate, coordinate and monitor the activities related to environment protection. In
1995, the Environmental Protection Law of Yemen was enacted. The law is designed to
safeguard a sustainable use of natural resources and to provide a comprehensive
framework for environmental management and establishment of sectoral legislation.
Among other things, it stipulates the establishment of a specific Yemen Environmental
Protection Fund. Priorities include regulatory framework, enforcement of law, the
establishment of environmental assessment procedures and a system of permit for
polluting activities. Despite the establishment of the EPC and its effort to coordinate
environment related activities, significant problems remain in sharing the responsibilities
and coordinating activities between different ministries and government agencies on
specific topics.
21
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1995
For instance, several ministries claim responsibility over coastal zone management, but
no one agency as yet has been designated to take the lead in addressing itself to this issue.
Competing sectoral interests often undermine the goal to set overall objectives and to
formulate sustainable policies and strategies to manage natural resources. Besides, the
role of local administration in providing environmental services is limited, although the
allocation of key natural resources, such as water, is mostly regulated at the local level.
EPC is the operational Focal Point for UNFCCC in Yemen, responsible for
implementation of UNFCCC provisions and decision-making procedures relating to the
matters of climate change. Since all the relevant ministries are already represented in the
EPC, it acts as the policy level coordinating mechanism for preparation of the National
Communication project which has been executed by the Environmental Protection
council (EPC) on behalf of the Government of Yemen. Furthermore, EPC acted as a
Climate Change Country Study Project Steering Committee consisting of senior officials
from the relevant ministries qualified to provide assistance to the project manager and
national experts. A PMU was installed within EPC's secretariat to manage the project on a
day-to-day basis. The strategy of the General Project was to involve the best expert
institutions in Yemen to implement the different activities of the project taking stock of
and fully utilizing the resources and results of relevant prior or ongoing national or
international activities. Experts in climatology, hydrology, agriculture, economics,
ecology, coastal zone, water resources management, energy and industry from relevant
ministries and institutions had participated in the country’s climate change study-team.
The Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) of the Free University of Netherlands,
which manages the NCCSAP on behalf of the Netherland’s Ministry of Foreign affairs,
had provided the necessary external technical backstopping to the local teams during
execution of studies. In addition, an Advisory Committee to the project was established in
May 1998, consisting of officials from relevant ministries, academic, non-governmental
organizations and the private sector agencies. In May 2000, a National-expert technicalteam was established, upon receiving additional limited fund from GEF for priority
measures in capacity building and technology transfer. This fund has allowed
establishment of a mechanism to update the inventory and other studies so that once new
information becomes available, the results and conclusions can be easily updated to
reflect the latest available information.
The 1998 National Workshop held in Sana'a for Consultative Council on environment,
strongly recommended that Yemen should make a comprehensive review of its
environmental legislation with emphasis on conducting a review of all International
Conventions by the EPC. The legislative aspect (Yemen context), the UNFCCC and the
Biodiversity Convention are to be reviewed under this process. Preparations for a
National Legislative Review Programme started recently.
22
3. NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY
3.1 Introduction
Natural greenhouse gases in the atmosphere absorb or "trap" part of the outgoing
radiation from the earth and re-radiate it, thus keeping the planet earth warmer than it
should be and thus uninhabitable. The massive injection of man-induced GHG into the
atmosphere increases its concentration and is expected to disturb the natural radiative
balance. This can have severe impact on climate system resulting in global warming and
sea level rise.
As part of the global efforts being made to stabilise atmospheric concentration of
greenhouse gases, Articles (4) and (12) of the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change, require each Party to include into the National Communication,
inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removal by sinks of all greenhouse
gases not controlled by the Montreal protocol "to the extent its capacities permit, using
comparable methodologies"
The year 1995 was used as a reference year for Yemen's GHG inventory due to the high
uncertainty of 1994's information as a result of the April-July 1994 civil war. The total
greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O) of the Republic of Yemen, in 1995, amounted
to 18,709 Gg CO2-eq, (CO2=11,359, CH4=128.31 and NO2=15.02). Taking CO2 removal
into account, the total net emission of CO2 is 845 Gg. These figures are exclusive of the
emission from the international bunker (114.35 Gg CO2) and from combustion of biomass
(353.29 Gg CO2).
18709
20,000
15,000
10132
Gg CO2-eq
8196
6294
10,000
844
547
5,000
893
0
-10514
-5,000
-10,000
Net
Sink
Total
Waste
Forestry
Agriculture
Indus.
Processes
Energy
-15,000
Figure 3.1. Total Yemen's GHG emission in Gg CO2-eq by sector, 1995
Yemen's emission profile by gas type for 1995, as illustrated in Figure (3.2) shows the
CO2 accounts for 61% of total national GHG emission (11358 Gg CO2), N2O 25% (4657
Gg CO2-eq) and CH4 14% (2694 Gg CO2-eq). Table (3.1) shows details of emission by
gas over various sectors.
23
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY
Table 3.1. Sectoral Breakdown of GHG emission, 1995
Gas
Source
Emission Gg
CO2
Energy
Industrial processes
Forestry
Subtotal
CH4
Energy
Agriculture
Land use change & forestry
Waste
Subtotal
N2O
Energy
Agriculture
Land use change & forestry
Waste
Subtotal
Total National Emission
Emission Gg
CO2-eq
9968
9968
547
547
843
843
11358
11358
6.02
126
91.22
1916
0.02
0.34
31.06
652
128.31
2694
0.12
37
14.13
4379
.0001
0.03
0.78
240
15.02
4657
11501
18709
N2O
25%
CO2
61%
CH4
14%
Figure 3.2 Yemen's GHG emissions by gas type (%), 1995
3.2 Methodology and Data
To ensure that emission inventory is consistent and comparable across sectors and
between Parties, the emission estimates of 1995 were calculated according to Revised
IPCC Guidelines for national GHG emission inventories (IPCC, 1996). This includes the
use of the IPCC methodology and default values as well as reporting formats. A copy of
24
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY
each the IPCC guideline worksheets and reporting tables is appended to the annexes
together with information on activity data and computations. Although the national study
adopted the IPCC methods for certain processes, the default emission factors seem
unrealistic in the case of Yemen. Other uncertainties and limitations, as per IPCC
guidelines, are given in the relevant sections.
Both the top-down and bottom-up approaches have been used for the preparation of this
national inventory of greenhouse gases. Under the IPCC guidelines, each of greenhouse
gases has different contribution to the greenhouse effect, which can be expressed as the
global warming potential (GWP) and allows GHG to be expressed as CO2 equivalent.
GWPs used values for three gases with direct greenhouse effect are:
Carbon dioxide (CO2) =
Methane (CH4)
=
Nitrous oxide (N2O) =
1
21
310
The data required for IPCC method application was obtained from various local official
statistical institutions, including research centers, Ministry of Planning and Development,
Ministry of Oil and Mineral Resources, Ministry of Agriculture and other specialized
agencies. In a few cases, where the data was unavailable from local sources,
internationally recognized agencies were approached. Local experts from concerned
parties in order to arrive at the most viable and reliable data scrutinized, evaluated and
verified the whole corpus of the available data. Information on solvent use, however, has
not been made available up to now. Data requirements for IPCC methodology necessitate
the existence of reliable databanks for many sectors.
Yemen’s inventory provides emission estimates for six greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide
(CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), carbon monoxide (CO), and oxides of
nitrogen (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) and sulphur dioxide
(SO2). The inventory of these gases has been divided into five broad categories:
Energy
Industrial processes
Agriculture
Land-use Change and Forestry
Waste
Emission for each sector is discussed below.
3.3 Energy
Energy related activities are the most significant contributors to the total GHG emissions
in Yemen accounting for 10132 Gg CO2-eq, out of which 9968 Gg is CO2 (Figure, 3.3).
The energy related GHG emissions originated from fossil fuel combustion in various
sectors (energy industry, manufacturing industry, transport, residential, commercial and
agriculture) and from fugitive sources. The sector-wise amount of emission is
summarised in Table (3.2).
25
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY
1 5 ,0 0 0
10132
9968
( 98.4 %)
1 0 ,0 0 0
126
( 1.2 %)
G g C O 2 -e q
37
( 0.4 %)
5 ,0 0 0
0
CO2
CH4
N 2O
T o ta l
Figure 3.3 Energy related GHG emissions by gas type, 1995
Table 3.2. Energy related GHG emission by sector
Sector
Emission Gg CO2 eq
Transport
3,851
Residential, commercial and agriculture
3,218
Energy industry (electricity)
2,411
Manufacturing
579
Fugitives
74
Total
10,132
Percent
38.0
31.8
23.8
5.7
0.7
100.0
Table (3.2) shows that transport, other sectors (residential, commercial and agriculture)
and energy industries were the major contributors, while manufacturing industry and
fugitive sources were minor contributors to the total energy related GHG emission.
Despite the fact that transport sector was known to be the largest emitter, it was difficult
to identify the vehicle types causing maximum amount of emission.
Table (3.3) presents an account of CO2 emissions obtained from bottom up versus top
down approach recommended by IPCC. The emission estimate for CO2 from the
reference approach was 10244 Gg of CO2 and the emissions estimated by the bottom-up
approach were 9968 Gg CO2, implying that the result obtained from reference approach is
3% higher than that obtained from bottom-up approach. The Table also shows that fuel
consumption quantities were higher by 2% in the IPCC reference approach implying that
apparent consumption term in reference approach is higher by about 2% than actual
consumption term in the bottom-up approach. This difference is partly due to rounding
errors and partly due to oil smuggling across national boarders. However, the results
obtained by the two approaches are highly comparable with only a small degree of
uncertainty.
26
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY
Table 3.3 Energy consumption and emission, 1995: Bottom up versus top down
Fuel consumption (TJ)
CO2 Emissions (Gg)
Total
Difference
Reference
143483
2%
Tier 1
140880
Reference
10244
3%
Tier 1
9968
GHG emission in the energy sector is resulted from the use of various petroleum
products. These products are shown in Table (3.4) with the relative contribution of each
fuel type compared with the total national energy consumption in 1995. The total fuel
consumption of Yemen amounted to 140,879 T Joules from various fuel types in 1995.
Table 3.4. Fuels consumption (in T Joules) and the relative shares of each fuel
products, 1995
Fuel
Energy consumption
Percent
(T joule)
Gasoline
Gas/Diesel oil
Residual fuel
LPG
Kerosene
Jet Kerosene
Lubricants
Totals
46,896
37,291
30,845
14,945
6,054
3,312
1,536
140,879
33.3
26.5
21.9
10.6
4.3
2.4
1.1
100
3.4 Industrial Processes
There are many industrial processes by which greenhouse gases are produced as a
by-product of the process itself and not as a result of energy consumption during the
process. In Yemen, among the industrial processes, cement production generated the
maximum amount of emission (99.3%). Other production processes with minor emissions
are lime production, limestone use and soda use (food & beverages). (Table 3.5).
The total GHG generated by the above mentioned processes was estimated as 546.67 Gg
CO2-eq which accounted for 2.92% of the total GHGs emission of the country. The
production of cement in Yemen in 1995 was 1089,000 tons that resulted in CO2 emission
of 542.867 Gg CO2-eq representing 4.8% of the country's total CO2 emissions, while it
represents around 2.9% of the total GHGs.
The CO2 emission from cement production was calculated by multiplying 1995-cement
production (1,089,000 tons) by the emission factor (0.4985 Ton of CO2 per ton of cement
produced). The SO2 emitted from cement production was obtained by using emission
factor of 0.3 Kg SO2/ton cement, thus leading to 0.330 Gg SO2 in 1995.
27
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY
Table 3.5 Amount of GHG emission from Industrial processes
Production process
Amount Gg CO2-eq
Percent
Cement production
542.867
99.3
Lime production
1.260
0.2
Limestone use
0.010
0.0
Soda use
2.54
0.5
Other gases emitted by this sector amounted to 7.57 Gg NMVOC, of which 5.91 Gg
resulted from road paving with asphalt, and the rest 1.66 Gg NMVOC from food
manufacturing process
3.5 Agriculture
In 1995, agricultural activities emitted 6294 Gg CO2-eq which was 33.64 % of Yemen's
total GHGs emission. Out of this emission, 70% (or 4379 Gg-CO2-eq) was emitted as
N2O and the rest (1916 Gg-CO2-eq) as CH4, Figure (3.4).
CH4
30%
N2O
70%
Figure 3.4. N2O & CH4 emission from Agricultural sector , 1995
In 1995, the nitrogen input to soil from crop residue, nitrogen-fixing crops and grazing
animals along with the application of synthetic and animal fertilisers accounted for 69.2%
(14.06 Gg N2O equivalent to 4359 Gg CO2) of the total GHG in agriculture. Enteric
fermentation was the second significant source in the sector, accounting for 28.8% (86.27
Gg CH4 equivalent to 1812 Gg CO2). Other sources are manure management and burning
of crop residues, collectively responsible for the balance of 2%, Table (3.6).
28
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY
Table 3.6 GHGs emission from agricultural processes
Sub sector
GHG emission
Gg-CO2-eq
4359
1812
98
26
6294
Agricultural Soil
Enteric fermentation
Manure management
Agricultural Burning
Total
Relative share %
69.2
28.8
1.6
0.4
100.0
The majority of 1995 CH4 emissions (94.6%) arose from enteric fermentation in
livestock, while animal waste management was responsible for about 4.4% and crop
residue burning contributed less than 1% (Table 3.7).
Table 3.7. CH4 emission from agriculture, 1995
Processes
Gg CH4
Enteric Fermentation
86.27
Manure Management
4.09
Agricultural Burning
0.85
Total
91.22
Gg CO2-eq
1812
86
18
1916
Relative share %
94.6
4.4
0.9
100
99.5% of Nitrous oxide emission came from agricultural soil and the remaining was
emitted by manure management systems and the burning of agricultural residue, (Table
3.8).
Table3.8. N2O Emission from agriculture, 1995
Processes
Gg N2O
Gg CO2-eq
Relative share %
Agricultural Soil
Manure Management
Agricultural Burning
Total
4359
12
8
4379
99.5
0.3
0.2
100
14.06
0.04
0.03
14.13
The only source of carbon monoxide and nitrous oxide emission from the agricultural
sector is the crop waste burning process with 0.93 Gg NOx and 17.88 Gg CO2 emission.
Due to unavailability of specific data as weight, age, intake and production of each animal
type, only the tier 1 approach could be used. It is believed that a high degree of
uncertainty is associated with the 1995 emission estimates as a result of using the tier1
instead of tier2 approach. The use of tier2 needs to conduct a study with the purpose of
developing Yemen's specific figures required for the application of tier2 as stipulated in
the IPCC guidelines.
29
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY
The total biomass burned on site represents 22.5% of the dry residue resulting from crop
harvest in 1995. According to household energy strategy study (Griffin, 1987), only 5%
of the residue is burned for energy purposes, while the largest portion is used as fodder
for animals. Emission estimate for the energy purpose is reported here and is calculated in
the energy sector. However, there is a degree of uncertainty regarding the above
percentages, as they were based on a study covering only part of the country. Therefore,
in order to reduce uncertainty, extension of the scope of that study to cover the whole
country is recommended.
3.6 Land use change and Forestry
Table (3.9) shows that land-use changes and forestry are sources and/or sinks for all
major GHGs (CO2, CH4, N2O). Emissions from this source category are associated with:
Changes in forest stocks, abandonment of managed lands, and forest and grassland
conversion.
Table 3.9 GHGs Source and sink in Gg, 1995
Processes
CO2
CO2
Uptake
Emissions
Forest stocks
-10297
657
Abandonment
-216
Forest and grassland
186.42
conversion
Total
-10514
843
Net CO2
Removal
-9641
-216
186
-9671
CH4
N2O
Emissions Emissions
0.34
0.03
0.34
0.03
The forests of Yemen are important sinks of carbon dioxide. In 1995, the total annual CO2
uptake by the forests in the country was calculated as 10514 Gg. This uptake build up
from the accumulation of total growth increment of managed forest was 10297 Gg, and
the accumulation of abandonment of managed lands over the past 20 years come to 216
Gg. The total CO2 emission from forest ecosystem of Yemen in 1995, due to reduction of
843 Gg in forest uptake, thus resulted in net CO2 uptake of only 9671Gg. The emissions
from forest ecosystem were the emission resultant from forest harvest (657 Gg) and
grassland conversion (186.42 Gg).
843
2000
0
-2000
-4000
-6000
-8000
-10000
-12000
-9671
-10514
CO2
Uptake
CO2 Emissions
CO2 Net Removal
Figure 3.5 Carbon dioxide emission and removal Gg, 1995
30
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY
Forest management activities also resulted in fluxes of other greenhouse gasses, but their
emissions were relatively minor when compared with CO2 in 1995. CO2 was the most
dominant gas emitted by agriculture sector having the largest contribution across all
subcategories. Other gases had very minor emissions from forest/grassland conversion
processes and zero shares in the other subcategories. The table indicates that the total
GHG emission from grassland conversion was 186.79 Gg, the vast majority of which
(186.42 Gg) was emitted as carbon dioxide and the remaining 0.37 Gg CO2-eq as a
combination of CH4 and N2O.
As for NOx and CO emission, forest/grassland conversion in 1995 was reported as a
single source of the gases, releasing 0.003 Gg NOx and 0. 14 Gg CO.
CO2 sequestration in Yemen is as high as 55% of the total GHG emission (10,514 Gg
CO2-eq), and nearly 4% higher than energy related CO2 emissions. This result could
change substantially if a well-documented inventory on forestation, afforestation, tree
plantation and removal is made available for the next GHG inventory update.
The availability of such an inventory would help in developing GHG inventory of a wider
temporal coverage by including sub-sources and regions uncovered in this inventory into
the upcoming inventory update. Specifically, the proposed inventory will help in
realistically addressing CO2 offsetting by re-growing biomass through securing the
necessary information on dispersed trees and date palms in order to be included in
biomass stock calculation. The same applies to missing information on forestland and
grassland converted all over Yemen to cropland over the last 20 years.
3.7 Waste management
The two emission sources responsible for the release of CH4 and N2O in waste
management sector are landfills and wastewater treatment. The emission of the two gases
in 1995 totalled to 893 Gg CO2-eq, representing a small share (4.9%) of national total
GHG emission. As seen in Figure 3.6, the largest share (73%) (652 Gg CO2-eq) of
emission of the sector was emitted as CH4 (31.06 Gg CH4) and the remaining 27% (240
Gg CO2-eq) released as N2O (0.78 Gg N2O). An overview of GHG emission by
sub-sector in 1995 is shown in Figure 3.7. Out of the 893 Gg CO2-eq emitted by waste
sector, landfills accounted for 61% and wastewater treatment accounted for 39%.
1200
893
652
73%
240
27%
800
400
0
T o ta l
C H4
N2O
Figure 3.6 GHG emission by gas type in waste management sector
31
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY
893
1000
800
600
346
39
547
61%
400
200
0
Wastewater
Lndfils
Total Waste
Figure 3.7 GHG emission from waste management, 1995
3.8 International bunkers and biomass
Emissions from international bunkers are excluded from the total according to the IPCC
methodology. In 1995, bunker fuel supplied locally to international transport
(international aviation and marine bunkers) generated 114 Gg, the largest portion of
which 96 Gg (84%) was emitted from marine bunkers and the remaining (16%) from
international aviation.
In 1995, the biomass related emissions were estimated at 353.29 Gg and mainly attributed
to Fuelwood consumption. (Total biomass consumption in the Republic of Yemen in
1995 was estimated to be around 322.28 KT dried matter).
3.9 Summary
The summary report for national greenhouse gas Source and Sink for the reference year
1995 as required by the IPCC guideline is shown in Table 3.10 and 3.11.
Electricity production and transportation have been found to be the major emitters in
Yemen. Several follow-up studies and research are required to improve and update the
national GHG inventory (chapter 6).
32
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY
Table 3.10 Summary of national GHG source and Sink(Gg), 1995 (absolute values)
CO2
CO2
CH4
N2O
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK
CATEGORIES
Emissions Removals
Total National Emissions and Removals 11358.09 -10513.77 128.31 15.02
NOx
CO
NMVOC SO2
1 Energy
9968.28
A Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)9968.28 0.00
1 Energy Industries
2402.62
2 Manufacturing Industries and 577.19
Construction
3 Transport
3808.45
4 Other Sectors
3180.03
5 Other
B Fugitive Emissions from Fuels
0.00
0.00
1 Solid Fuels
2 Oil and Natural Gas
0.00
2 Industrial Processes
546.67
0.00
A Mineral Products
546.67
B Chemical Industry
C Metal Production
D Other Production
0.00
E Production of Halocarbons and Sulfur Hexafluoride
F Consumption of Halocarbons and Sulfur Hexafluoride
3 Solvent and Other Product Use
4 Agriculture
0.00
A Enteric Fermentation
B Manure Management
C Rice Cultivation
D Agricultural Soils
E Prescribed Burning of Savannas
F Field Burning of Agricultural Residues
G Other
5 Land-Use Change & Forestry
843.14
-10513.77
A Changes in Forest and Other Woody 656.72
-10297.49
Biomass Stocks
B Forest and Grassland Conversion
186.42
C Abandonment of Managed Lands
D CO2 Emissions and Removals from Soil
E Other (please specify)
6 Waste
A Solid Waste Disposal on Land
B Wastewater Handling
C Waste Incineration
D Other (please specify)
7 Other (please specify)
Memo Items
International Bunkers
Aviation
Marine
CO2 Emissions from Biomass
0.00
114.35
18.12
96.23
353.29
89.06
451.95
92.94
7.69
6.02
2.48
0.10
0.02
0.12
0.12
0.02
0.005
88.13
87.85
6.37
1.55
433.93
433.50
0.48
0.08
85.36
79.92
0.16
0.04
7.36
2.92
1.12
1.25
0.06
0.04
64.10
15.83
403.20
29.75
76.27
3.46
2.92
3.54
0.00
0.29
0.43
5.44
4.44
3.54
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.29
0.00
0.43
0.00
NE
5.44
7.57
5.91
4.44
0.33
0.33
1.66
91.22
86.27
4.09
14.13
0.93
17.88
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.04
14.06
0.85
0.03
0.93
17.88
0.02
0.0001
0.003
0.14
0.02
0.0001
0.003
0.14
31.06
26.03
5.03
0.78
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.08
1.92
1.30
0.03
1.28
0.27
0.01
0.26
0.00
-216.28
0.00
0.00
Empty box: Not applicable
Shaded box: Not Estimated because unavailability of input data
33
0.78
0.01
0.001
0.0001 0.001
0.01
0.001
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY
Table 3.11 Summary Report For major GHG Source and Sink, 1995
(Gg) of CO2 Equivalent Relative
Greenhouse gas source and sink categories
Share %
CO2
1 Energy
9968
A Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)
9968
1 Energy Industries
2403
2 Manufacturing Industries and Construction 577
3 Transport
3808
4 Other Sectors
3180
B Fugitive Emissions from Fuels
0
1 Solid Fuels
2 Oil and Natural Gas
2 Industrial Processes
547
A Mineral Products
547
B Chemical Industry
C Metal Production
D Other Production
E Production of Halocarbons and Sulfur Hexaflouride
F Consumption of Halocarbons and Sulfur Hexaflouride
3 Solvent and Other Product Use
4 Agriculture
0
A Enteric Fermentation
B Manure Management
C Rice Cultivation
D Agricultural Soils
E Prescribed Burning of Savannas
F Field Burning of Agricultural Residues
5 Land-Use Change & Forestry
843
A Changes in Forest and Other Woody Biomass Stocks
657
B Forest and Grassland Conversion
186
C Abandonment of Managed Lands
D CO2 Emissions and Removals from soil
0
6 Waste
A Solid Waste Disposal on Land
B Wastewater Handling
C Waste Incineration
7 Other
Total National Emissions and Removals
11358
International Bunkers
114
Aviation
18.12
Marine
96.23
CO2 Emissions from Biomass
353.29
34
CH4
126
52
2
0
24
26
74
N2O
37
37
6
1
19
11
0
Subtotal
10132
10058
2411
579
3851
3218
74
54.16
53.76
12.88
3.09
20.58
17.20
0.40
74
0
0
74
547
547
2.92
2.92
12
6294
1812
98
33.64
9.68
0.52
4359
4359
23.30
18
0.34
8
0.03
0.34
0.03
26
843.52
657
187
0.14
4.51
3.51
1.00
652
547
106
240
240
893
547
346
4.77
2.92
1.85
2694
0
0.003
0.13
4657
0
0.16
0.24
18709
115
18
97
100.00
1916
1812
86
4379
15.91
84.09
4. OBSERVATION, RESEARCH AND VULNERABILITY TO
CLIMATE CHANGE
4.1. Observation and Research on Climate Change
4.1.1. Monitoring network
The general aim of monitoring networks for hydro-meteorological, crop productivity, sea
level rise etc. are to observe relevant variables over a period of time at a number of
selected locations. Such variables may include temperature, rainfall, relative humidity,
surface water level, stream flow, groundwater level, agricultural production, water use,
water quality, sea level, etc. Well designed monitoring networks reveal the dynamics of
the systems (meteorological, hydro, etc) concerned: they characterize the circumstantial
and natural variations within these systems, and show how and to what extent are systems
modified by external change, especially by human activities. Monitoring data are
indispensable for proper planning of natural resources development and management.
Clusters of stations in certain zones reflect the fact that most of the stations were designed
as part of project networks in project areas of limited size, rather than as stations of a
national monitoring network. Also the type of equipment used is related to these project
networks. Networks in Yemen hence are not operated centrally, rather local or regional
networks are run by a large number of organizations. Most of the stations started as
project stations and were after a couple of years taken over by government agencies under
which the project resumed work. As a result, there is no national standardization of
equipment and monitoring practices. Moreover, difficult physical conditions, large
distances, shortage of operational personnel and funds, safety problems, etc. impose
heavy constraints on network operation.
Despite the fact that monitoring networks do not have a long tradition in Yemen, climatic
variables have been systematically observed for more than a century, even though with
the help of only a few stations and with considerable gaps between the periods of
observation. Several meteorological stations were installed during the late 1970s and
early 1980s. Automation, especially the introduction of Eprom recorders, has improved
the operational conditions and consequently the records as well.
Stream gauging over different flow ranges is extremely difficult in the capricious wadis in
Yemen, thus the rating curves and resulting stream flow records are never very accurate.
It should be realized that the older stream flow records and some of the current ones as
well are based on staff gauge readings, and thus are not suitable for reconstructing
instantaneous reconstructed flows.
A well-established system to collect and record data related to agroclimatic is found at the
Agricultural Research and Extension Authority (AREA). Data since early 1980s has been
collected systematically. Though the research in the area is limited due to budget
constraint. Harbor Authorities at Hodeidah and Aden are monitoring variations in the sea
level. Seawater quality and the state of the reefs are monitored intermittently following
the duration of project or research.
35
OBSERVATION, RESEARCH AND VULNERABILITY
Beach monitoring is one of the requisites for the purpose. It will be prudent to gather
more data to monitor the development of the coast in the pilot area. In this manner
accurate rates of erosion will be defined enabling proper management to be done. The
monitoring of beach profiles should be carried out monthly for the first year to study the
trends of erosion within all sandy shores and then monitoring should be carried out at
intervals of three months. It will be necessary to link the monitoring of offshore profiles
with that of the beaches. On account of the expensive nature of determining offshore
topography, it is proposed that the offshore profiles be determined at intervals of 6
months.
4.1.2. Data banks
Given the fact that many organizations and projects are running monitoring networks and
conducting field studies in Yemen, obtaining original data from the various operating
agencies could be tedious and time consuming and sometimes even difficult. A national
database recently established at NWRA within the framework of the UNDP assistance is
intended to act as a centralized publicly accessible national water resources database.
Data exchange and cooperation with other partners (organizations) and their database
have been useful for the newly established central database. The most important partner
in this respect is the Civil Aviation and Meteorological Authority (CAMA), a body
responsible for climatic parameter observation. Time series data and other basic
numerical information on the climate, hydrology and hydrogeology of Yemen are stored
in the database of NWRA, in the form of digital files. In spite of shortcomings, it has
already fulfilled part of this task for a number of years and was extensively consulted for
the preparation of climate change studies.
A soil database which includes field description of about 800 soil profile over different
potential areas has been established at AREA together with crop management data and
the potential yield for some main crops.
Other information and data on environmental issues and hazards like, crop productivity,
sea level, etc. are scattered in various ministries and agencies and hence are not always
easy to obtain. More exchange of information between ministries and/or agencies and the
establishment of a data base is urgently needed. Data requirements for IPCC methodology
necessitate the existence of reliable databanks for many sectors.
4.1.3. Research on climate change
Due to the variety of sectors targeted, the funds made available for studies conducted
during the preparation of National Communication were not sufficient to undertake any
new, medium or large scale scientific research. The study built on prior and ongoing
studies, compiled the available information and undertook some small, well defined
studies to fill the existing gaps for GHG inventory and abatement analysis. Nevertheless,
few local research assistants, involved in the preparation of the national studies,
undertook partial research, despite the limitation of the data, financial resources,
methodologies etc.
An advanced level research project was carried out, using a number of models for sectoral
assessment. In the water resources impact & adaptation study, researchers used
c
36
OBSERVATION, RESEARCH AND VULNERABILITY
four models to calculate the demand and supply sides of water resources and in this a new
methodology was designed for assessing the vulnerability of water resources in Yemen
(Alderwish & Al-Eryani, 1999).
The strategy used four interacting models; a Rainfall-Runoff Model, an Irrigation
Simulation Model, a Groundwater Simulation Model, and an Economic Policy Model.
The outputs were used to create a wadi basin water resources simulation model. Linking
the models was found to yield predictions that were more meaningful in the formulation
of water management policies. The approach was developed because of the difficulties
in assessing the sensitivity of water systems to climate change in arid and semi-arid
regions. For example, runoffs in wadis are characterised by flood peaks and flash floods
and hourly or daily time step models are needed to capture these effects. The results of
the study are considered preliminary, especially in relation to predicting future
availability of water resources. This is because the minimum time interval that can be
calculated using GCM scenarios is one month. In arid and semi-arid regions, shorter
time intervals (e.g. one day) are needed to produce more reliable results, because of the
variability of hydrological events. However, results show that water use conflicts will
emerge or become worse.
A semi-quantitative approach, capable of quantifying various processes and factors
influencing production level of agriculture was used to assess the vulnerability and
adaptation of two main crops, wheat and potatoes, to different climate change scenarios.
The steps involved in the assessment of yield reductions, besides climate change effect
include; yield reduction as a result of water stress, lack of nutrients, weed competition,
diseases, pest incidence and socio-economic constraints (farm management).
The levels are in fact nested crop production systems starting with the highest or potential
level related to optimal conditions working down to production levels at sub-optimal
conditions. The steps followed in the analysis to estimate the impact of climate change on
crop production are:
1. Calculate potential production
2. Define water related yield to reduction levels
3. Define nutrient related to yield reduction
4. Define weed related to yield reduction
5. Define diseases related to yield reduction
6. Define pests related to yield reduction
7. Analyse and rework collected data
8. Define socio-economic scenario for Yemni agriculture
9. Define yield reduction related to socio-economic constraints
10. Identify adaptation measures
For coastal zone, the procedure used involved a description of the environmental
characteristics of Yemen's coastal zone, the selection of a high risk area as pilot area, and
the collection of data on infrastructure, land, buildings and population along the coastline
that would potentially be vulnerable to sea-level rise. The most likely scenario of a rise of
one meter by the year 2100 has been examined in some detail. An analysis of the cost
involved in adopting measures to adapt to the risk is being carried out. Using the
geographical information system (GIS) over the studied area facilitated the
c
37
OBSERVATION, RESEARCH AND VULNERABILITY
preparation of a topographic map of suitable scale for the coastal area and consequently
delineation of the risk zone, (contour line 0f 2 meter from the coastal line) i.e. the region
expected to be submerged in sea water and finally the estimation damage caused to life
around the sea shore. Using civil engineering plans and comparing the built-up regions
with other regions, some information has been collected through a field survey about the
case study regions which will be threatened by water overflow and about an estimated
damage likely to be caused in eco-social fields.
The beach profile is expected to move horizontally by shoreline recession and vertically
upward. Bruun's Rule has been used for determining the movement of shorelines due to
increase in water levels.
Sharp interface approach was employed to locate the fresh/saline water interface. This
approach presents the changes in the position of the interface in both directions, vertically
and horizontally. The vertical changes, according to Ghyben-Herzberg relation, were
supposed to be 40 times of the change in the aquifer water table relating to the original
sea level, while the horizontal changes were estimated using trigonometry relationships.
In Yemen, there are a number of existing research institutes which carry out research on
the interface between climate change and the respective economic sector. Academic
institutions like Sana'a University and Aden University have done some research and
conducted training programs in the environmental field, and both universities also have
research groups dealing with alternative energy sources. More recently, the University of
Science & Technology has started to involve itself in research in solar energy. Other
institutions working in this field include Environmental Protection Council, National
Water Resources Authority; Water and Environment Center and Marine Research
Institute in Aden and Hodeidah.
4.2. Vulnerability to climate change
Vulnerability in the present context refers to the extent to which climate change may
damage or harm a system (IPCC, 1996). Yemen's natural systems and economy generally
suffer from the mounting pressure of high population growth rate, limited natural
resources and economic problems. All these contribute to make Yemen highly vulnerable
to climate change. Some of the key socio-economic sectors, most likely to be affected by
climate change and for which financial support was made available include Water
resources, Agricultural production, and Coastal zone resources. The impact of climate
change on each of these sectors can be identified and assessed.
4.2.1. Climate change Scenarios
Climate change scenarios were used to identify sectoral sensitivity to climate change. Out
of the 14 runs (experiments) of General Circulation Model (GCMs), under doubling of
carbon dioxide content (2 x CO2), three models were selected to cover a wider range of
possible future change in climate and were used for vulnerability analyses. These are
OSU, Oregon State University, representing average climate conditions, UKHI United
Kingdom meteorological office, High Resolution for a dry climate conditions and
ECHAM3TR (MAX Plank institute (Geostrophic Ocean) for very wet conditions.
38
OBSERVATION, RESEARCH AND VULNERABILITY
In addition, assumed incremental changes were combined with observed climate data of
rainfall and temperature to construct additional climate change scenarios. These are:
Incremental 1 = + 20% Rainfall & + 2o C,
Incremental 2 = - 20% Rainfall & + 2o C,
Incremental 3 = + 20% Rainfall & + 3o C, and
Incremental 4 = - 20% Rainfall & + 3o C
4.2.2. Socio-economic scenarios
As part of the climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessment socio-economic
scenarios were constructed. General Quantitative country-level scenarios comprise a
range of issues related to population and economic activities were developed and used
as basis for sector/site specific scenarios. Additional parameters include crop-specific
agricultural production, main water using sectors over specific (study) area, and
economic activities for coastal zone management over study area. After assessing the
impact of climate change in agricultural production, water resources and costal zone
under the use socio-economic scenarios, the results were then incorporated to the
overall socio-economic situation of country. Although the results obtained of limited
accuracy, the exercise was beneficial to the local expertise.
In brief the following has been drawn from the future projection:
 Most of economic sectors and associated activities would achieve high growth rate
during the first quarter (2001-2025) of the century, followed by gradual decline in the
growth rates for the second quarter (2026-2050). The first high annual growth rates may
be attributed to availability of many opportunities to extensively develop natural
resources of the country, while the following declining trend of annual growth rates
would result from:
1. Less opportunities to develop new/additional resources after heavy
exploitation of these resources during the first 25 years.
2. Increase of competition for local commodities as market economy becomes
open.
3. The values upon which the growth rate is based would lead to the limitation
of the growth rate itself.
 Several promising activities such as fishing, mining and tourism would become more
important and would positively affect other related sectors.
 There would be a tangible change in production structure of the system that would
lead to more benefit to appropriate sectors like fishing, industry, manufacturing and many
other production services' sectors, especially financial services. Also the improved
structure would allow avoiding unwanted existing activities in the system like Qat
production or those associated with external (international) factors as crude oil
production. Special consideration should be given to keep agricultural sector as an
important strategic sector to provide sufficient food for a rapidly growing population.
39
OBSERVATION, RESEARCH AND VULNERABILITY
For water resources study, multiple future baseline socio-economic scenarios were
constructed over Abyan Delta, using low middle and high values of population growth,
agricultural land and industrial development. Future water demands under climate change
scenarios were assessed assuming business as a usual scenario based on a projection of
observed trends, corrected in the light of recent reforms and expected future government
policies. Consequently, main characterization of future study area emerges, allowing
analysis of effects of socio-economic development on the impacts. The results were used
in evaluating spontaneous and planned adaptation.
4.2.3. Water Resources
In Yemen, as in many Arab countries, water has a high social, economic and political
value, yet the most vulnerable sector to climate change is water resources in terms of
quantity and quality. Under the circumstances of scarce availability of water resources
and the anticipated anthropogenically induced climate change, assessment of impact on
water resources becomes crucial and the results obtained require to be of, at least,
reasonable accuracy.
As most of the water resource systems in Yemen exploit combination of surface and
subsurface storage, the study has involved aspects of water resource system simulation
and performance assessment. The selected modeling strategy that is used for the first time
in climate change assessment studies comprised 4 interacting models: rainfall-runoff
model, irrigation simulation model, groundwater simulation model and an economic
model capable of adequate indication of the water system's sensitivity to climate change
in arid and semi-arid regions. This has been achieved through a distributed representation
of the physical setting with sufficient resolution to effectively evaluate the impact of
water management measures and the evaluation of economic and other policies used in
adaptation analysis. The vulnerability assessment of water resources was conducted on
the example area of Abyan Delta with its contributing catchments. The area selected has
special social and economic importance not only because it encompasses the main well
field that supplies water to Great Aden, but also because it includes major agricultural
activity. The extent, however, has been delineated to include the three main hydroclimatic zones in Yemen, namely: the Highland, the Middle highland (escarpment) and
the plains (Abyan Delta).
THE SUPPLY
Table 4.1 lists the values of surface water resources in the study area under current
conditions and under climate change scenarios using GCMs and incremental scenarios.
With intermediate CO2 concentration levels, the OSU predict an increase of 12% in the
runoff volume by year 2050, and a shift in the temporal distribution of monthly runoff
toward the second half of years. UKHI predicts 5% decrease in surface runoff while
ECHAM3TR predicts an increase of 111%. UKHI and ECHAM3TR were selected to be
included because they represent the driest and wettest conditions between the 14 GCMs
experiments.
40
OBSERVATION, RESEARCH AND VULNERABILITY
Table 4.1: Average surface water resources in Abyan delta under various climate
conditions (MCM).
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Total
Climate Conditions
5
4
21
27
17
11
40
52
17
5
3
4
Normal climate
205
5
4
20
23
13
10
46
49
14
5
3
4
UKHI
196
230
5
7
21
33
24
10
42
59
18
5
3
4
OSU
5
4
26
27
15
10
97
202
29
7
3
9
ECHAM3TR
434
7
7
26
28
30
13
55
70
18
5
3
5
Inc2 +20 % rainfall
269
6
6
15
15
13
10
31
37
11
4
2
4
Inc4 -20 % rainfall
152
Note: For the GCM models and the four incremental climates, the reported runoff are the average values
for the study horizon (1991-2050).
The total average annual renewable resources at Abyan Delta have been calculated under
various climate scenarios. Like other coastal plains in Yemen, direct precipitation is
insignificant (50 mm/year) and their resources depend on runoff generated at
mountainous areas. WEAP allows allocation of these resources between spate irrigation,
wadi recharge, irrigation return, and the sea.
Table 4.2 The available water resources (MCM/year) in Abyan delta over the next
50 years
Water sources/ climate conditions
Runoff generated
Renewable resources
Runoff available to spate irrigation
Irrigation return
Wadi recharge
To the sea
Normal UKHI
205
192
127
41
38
27
196
183
122
40
35
26
OSU
230
214
133
44
46
35
Increm.
1&3
269
249
146
48
57
46
Increm.
2& 4
152
142
105
35
22
15
THE DEMAND
Under each climate change scenario, the water demand and the groundwater resources
were evaluated under Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. The BAU scenario assumes
continuation of rated historical water demand trends together with current exploitation
practices and water use efficiency in irrigation under the existing institutional set-up. No
government intervention is foreseen in this case, except for the public water supply and
maintaining the spate irrigation infrastructures to its current situation. The water demand
within the study area can be aggregated into three major water-use sectors. These are:
Municipal; comprising domestic supply,
Agricultural; serving irrigation and livestock uses, and
Industrial; including mining.
For each sector future water demand was calculated. The total water demand for all
sectors under various climate conditions is given in Table 4.3.
41
OBSERVATION, RESEARCH AND VULNERABILITY
Table 4.3: Total water demand (MCM/Year) for all sectors under various climate
scenarios in Abyan Delta (BAU, medium growth rate)
Year
Normal UKHI OSU
Incr.1
Incr.2
Incr.3
Incr.4
1991
439
440
440
440
440
440
440
2000
454
457
458
458
460
458
461
2010
475
481
481
482
485
484
488
2020
501
511
512
513
517
515
521
2030
531
544
545
546
553
549
557
2040
561
579
580
582
591
586
597
2050
593
615
615
618
630
624
637
Agriculture was the major water consumer in the study area representing 97% of total
water demand in 1990; the percentage will decrease to 93% by year 2050. The increase of
temperature has the major effect on the agricultural water demand in the study area, as
rainfall over the area is little. Under the maximum hot scenario (incremental 4), the
agricultural water demand is usually more than under normal climate by about 8%.
SUPPLY -DEMAND RELATION
In future supply, priority would be given to domestic water supply followed by industry
and agriculture. The groundwater simulation model predicts that domestic and industrial
water demand would be secured over the time horizon. However, that would be possible
only under higher costs as a result of the decline in the level of groundwater.
The available runoff for spate irrigation indicates a deficit in the coverage of spate
irrigation water demand as a result of fluctuation in the run of the runoff. The spate
irrigation water demand varies between 551 MCM/year under normal climate condition to
595 MCM/year under maximum hot climate, while the available flow for spate irrigation
under the same conditions are 127MCM /year (normal climate) and 105 MCM/year
(incremental 4), which is less than half of the demand. This shortage in available spate
runoff would lead to rapid increase in groundwater abstraction for agriculture to
supplement spate irrigation.
Unfortunately, the groundwater simulation model shows that groundwater aquifer in the
study area would not be able to support even normal demand (without taking effect of
runoff shortage) as several wells start to withdraw salt water (below 0 level) and that
started as early as 1997. Withdrawal of poor quality water out of the aquifer continues to
increase with slight fluctuation due to recharge pulses. The gap between demand and
supply in the year 2050 is of about 162 MCM (66%) and 154 MCM (65%) under UKHI
and normal climates respectively. Drying up and the abandonment of agriculture in
Abyan Delta can be anticipated as it is running short of water. This implies that the whole
rural economy is vulnerable to declining water availability. Figure 4.1 shows demandsupply gap in the groundwater resources For UKHI scenario. Table 4.4 reports the
differences in five year interval.
42
OBSERVATION, RESEARCH AND VULNERABILITY
Table 4.4: Water demand and supply in Abian delta, MCM/year (BAU & UKHI)
Year
Water demand
Water supply
Deficit in supply
1991
84
84
0
1995
91
91
0
2000
100
78
-21
2005
109
70
-39
2010
120
70
-51
2015
134
75
-59
2020
148
60
-88
2025
163
61
-102
2030
178
67
-112
2035
194
71
-123
2040
210
77
-133
2045
227
78
-148
244
85
2050
-159
2048
2045
2042
2039
2036
2033
2030
2027
2024
2021
2018
2015
2012
2009
2006
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
0
-20
-40
Shortage MCM/Y
-60
-80
-100
-120
-140
-160
-180
Figure 4.1. Groundwater supply/demand deficit in Abyan delta (under BAU & UKHI)
These results should be considered preliminary, especially in application to predict the
available water resources at the national level under future climate change. Further
investigations are required.
4.2.3. Agricultural production
Agricultural activity is a key element in Yemen's economy and is expected to continue to
be so for the forthcoming decades. It has a strong socio-economic bearing and needs to be
assessed for its vulnerability. The agricultural development priorities, as reflected in the
five-year plans, placed greater emphasis on increasing crop and livestock production to
meet the domestic food demand and expand exports. At the same time, it called for
increasing food security levels. With only 3 percent of the country’s total area
c
43
OBSERVATION, RESEARCH AND VULNERABILITY
used as cultivable land, Yemen will have to rely on imports amounting to about 35
percent of the national food supply.
Cereals form the bulk of the diet of the world population and cereal products rank highest
among agriculture imports of Yemen. Wheat is mainly grown in the highlands and the
plateau zones. In the highlands wheat is grown twice a year: in summer under rainfed
conditions and in winter under irrigation. In the plateau zone wheat is grown in winter
under irrigated conditions. It occupied, in 1995, about 14% of the total area of cereals
grown and 21 % of the total cereal production, ranking second among cereal crops after
sorghum. Potato is gaining ever-increasing comparative advantage as potential export
commodity; thus, compensating for wheat import and a potential alternative to Qat. Thus
the two crops selected for quantitative analysis were Wheat and Potatoes and Qat was
analyzed only qualitatively.
Four sites were chosen, representing the two main agroclimatic zones where both wheat
and potato are grown. These zones are: the Mountain Highland Zone located in Dhammar
and Ibb and the Desert Plateau Zone located in Marib and Seyun.
The impact of climate change on wheat and potato is quantified using a semi-quantitative
approach using basic agronomic rules combined with rating factors for yield reducing
factors. Temperature is the major factor influencing crop growth. Potential production is
directly related to cumulative heat (degree-days (oCd)). Temperature changes directly
influence the maximum or potential production level. Water is essential for crop
development. Yield reduction as a result of water stress, in most cases related to water
shortage, is a function of climatic, soil and crop characteristics. Pest and disease may
harm the crop physically or compete for resources. Weed competition in low input
agriculture is an important yield reducing factor.
Precipitation in terms of total quantity as well as spatial and temporal distribution will
modify the magnitude of the yield reduction due to soil water availability, especially in
rainfed farming systems. Likewise, changes in temperature will affect crop production
levels. Specifically, temperature change influences the rate of crop development,
consequently affecting the length of the growing season. It should be noted that not only
the length but also the start of the growing season might change. In this study the changes
in grain filling period for wheat and tuber formation period are used to quantify the
potential production level length of phonological stages. According to field observations
during 1997/1998 in Marib and Seyun, high temperatures in the first stages of wheat
production led to low tillering and thus reduced the number of days from sowing to
harvesting by 10-15 days. Consequent wheat yield reductions were in the range of 2.4
ton/ha (in Marib). Other results were found for potato at other sites. (Tables 4.5 & 4.6)
Using the FAO model, CROPWAT (Smith, 1992), wheat and potato yield reductions
(YR) in rainfed areas and net irrigation requirements (NIR) in irrigated areas were
predicted for the year 2050, under the three proposed climate change scenarios: OSU,
UKHI, and ECHAM3TR. These results (with combined effect of changes in temperature
and precipitation) were then compared with YR and NIR results using the mean of the
observed climatic data.
44
OBSERVATION, RESEARCH AND VULNERABILITY
In the semi-humid areas (Ibb) of the mountain highlands agroecological zone, the
changes in temperature and precipitation given by all three scenarios will introduce lesser
potato yield reductions than the observed YR, which may indicate favorable climatic
conditions for potato growth in this high-rainfall region. It should be noted that potato
YR for the wet scenario (ECHAM3TR) is expected to be more than twice as much under
the other two scenarios. This could be due to potentially poor soil drainage induced by
wetter climatic conditions. On the other hand, wheat yield showed no response to
climatic changes; as both the observed and predicted YR were zero. This result could not
indicate the vulnerability of wheat farming systems to expected climate change scenarios.
In general, crops like wheat and potato may not show vulnerability, in terms of heat and
water requirements under prevailing climatic conditions of the semi-humid highlands in
Yemen.
In the semi-arid highlands (Dhammar), wheat and potato, on the contrary, are expected
to experience higher future crop yield reductions than the present (except under the wet
scenario). Spring Potato (15 Feb-1 June) yield reductions will be considerably high (50%)
under rainfed conditions which may necessitate supplemental irrigation. Meanwhile,
autumn potato (20 Jun-13 Oct) is expected to have slightly higher (10%) irrigation
requirements and more water demand than that at the present. Summer wheat grown in
this semi-arid region, however, will maintain its present or slightly higher YR (25%) rate
except under the wet scenario (ECHAM3TR). YR sustains only a third of the present
level of YR. It may be concluded that higher wheat yields can be obtained by practicing
supplemental irrigation in the absence of wetter climatic conditions.
Table 4.5 Potatoes' potential production under normal and climate change (Ton/ha).
ٍsites
Pot. production
Normal climate
Pot. production
OSU (+1.7°C)
Semi-arid
Dhammar
Semi-humid
Ibb
Arid
Marib
Hyper-arid
Seyun
43.8
Pot. production
ECHM3TR (+2oC)
41.9
Pot. production
UKHI
(+1.85°C)
41.6
48.8
42.8
42.5
42.2
52.4
48.5
48.2
47.9
62.8
56.7
56.3
56.0
41.3
Table 4.6 Wheat's potential production under normal and climate change (ton/ha).
Sites
Pot. production
Normal climate
Pot. production
OSU (+1.7°C)
Pot. production
ECHM3TR (+2oC)
5.8
Pot. production
UKHI
(+1.85°C)
5.8
Semi-arid
Dhammar
Semi-humid
Ibb
Arid
Marib
Hyper-arid
Seyun
7.2
9.1
6.2
6.1
6.1
12.3
10.1
10
9.9
10.9
11.2
11.1
11
45
5.7
OBSERVATION, RESEARCH AND VULNERABILITY
In the arid areas (Seyun and Marib) of the desert plateau zone, generally, potato will
have higher demand for water than under normal climate; whereas, wheat would demand
less water. Regional differences are evident of vulnerability of both crops to expected
changes in temperature and precipitation. In Seyun, the net irrigation requirements for
potato will increase slightly (a range of 2-10%) over the present NIR levels, depending on
the scenario used. In contrast, potato growing in Marib is expected to demand around
25% higher NIR in all scenarios used. The difference in potato irrigation water demand
between the two regions might be partially related to the usual lack of rainfall in Marib,
during the potato growing season. According to CROPWAT estimates for present
situation the actual water use for potato growing is approximately 10% more in Marib
than in Seyun. This result is mainly associated with higher radiation load, higher wind
speed and relatively drier air prevailing in Marib. These climatic conditions are well
pronounced because of the difference in annual potential evapotranspiration (PET)
between Marib (1811 mm) and Seyun (1640 mm). Basically, spring wheat growing in the
desert plateau will require about 10% less irrigation than it does under normal climate; the
increased NIR in Marib, as given by the OSU and ECHAM3TR scenarios, is up to 2%.
Wheat would show almost no vulnerability to climate change. This conclusion may
support the idea that wheat production in Marib area will have substantial potential. This
matter remains to be further investigated along with predictions of CO2 concentration.
Other signs of vulnerability in crop production under expected changes in temperature
and precipitation could be related to the incidence of pests and soil conditions. Increased
temperatures coupled with the same or higher precipitation generally provide better
conditions for the development of diseases and pests including weeds. Due consideration
should be given to diseases and insects endangering agricultural crops, especially when
some crops become particularly susceptible to transmission of diseases via insectdamaged tissues.
The physical condition of soil is sensitive to the potential climatic change. If precipitation
increases and temperature either remains constant or increase, drainability of soil in the
semi-humid region (Ibb) would change and thus expand the area of land vulnerable to
flood hazard and poor drainage. In fact, not only the amount of rainfall but also its
intensity will play an important role, which is however difficult to assess.
3.3.4. Coastal zone
A rich diversity of ecosystems and a great number of socio-economic activities
characterise the coastal zone of Yemen. The procedure followed in the assessment of
impacts of Accelerated Sea Level Rise (ASLR) involved a description of the
environmental characteristics of the Yemen coastal zones, a selection of the high risk area
as pilot area, the collection of data on infrastructure, land, buildings and population along
the coastline that is potentially vulnerable to sea-level rise.
Hodeidah city and its surrounding areas were selected for a detailed impact assessment.
The city is the largest on the Red Sea coast with a considerable economic and trade
activity, and it’s the second largest port in Yemen. The selected area also includes the
c
46
OBSERVATION, RESEARCH AND VULNERABILITY
low lying sandy spit extending about 12kms north-west of the city, and the coast south of
the city to a distance of 10 km, where two wadis abound on the shore and where a few
fishery settlements exist close to the beach. The level of the area is low and the city has
suffered a considerable rate of erosion of the coastline.
The Risk Zone area of impact has been delineated as the area within the coastal zone and
below the 2-m contour line, Figures (4.2). High water line over the last 35 years is shown
in Figure (4.3).
Figure 4.2 Simplified map showing the expect shoreline after 50 years
47
OBSERVATION, RESEARCH AND VULNERABILITY
1985
2000
Figure 4.3 (Plate) Building in Hodeidah retreated for about 30m during the last 35 Years.
Arrows show the old location of high water line as indicated by the area inhabitants.
Various kind of impacts are grouped under the following:
Impact on biological communities
The Yemen coastline wetlands are found associated only with sheltered bays. Mangrove
swamps provide the basis for many important marine food chains and they also provide
nesting sites for a wide range of sea and shore birds. The wetlands and mangroves found
in the pilot area are located in the bay to the east of the sand spit. A sea level rise of 1 m
in 100 years would destroy the existing vegetation. On the other hand the shoreline would
move inland creating new opportunities for the wetland and mangrove development. The
balance between accretion and submergence (survival) of the wetlands due to sea level
rise is complex and depends upon coastal types as well as coastal settings (muddy, tidedominated systems, or organic systems, areas of high or low tide range, and in areas of
high or low sediment and freshwater input). Other crucial factors for that balance are the
rate of sea-level rise and coastal topography and sediment supply.
Impact on the shoreline beaches
The loss of land attributable to sea-level rise occurs from the erosion of sandy shores and
erodible cliffs "shoreline recession". Loss of land on low-lying coasts sheltered from
wave attack is usually caused by inundation.
Bruun method (1962) has been used for determining the movement of shorelines due to
increases in water levels. For the pilot area, the recession due to a sea level rise of 1 m is
estimated at about 100 m. This happens because of a potential land loss along the
shoreline of the pilot area (length 20-km) of about 200 ha. It should be mentioned that
silty soils found in the bay (Port of Hodeidah) would erode even faster than the Bruun
c
48
OBSERVATION, RESEARCH AND VULNERABILITY
Rule suggests for sandy shores. Luckily, the sand spit safeguards the shoreline from wave
attack protecting the area from erosion.
Impact on Coastal structures
With rising sea-levels coastal structures are expected to become more vulnerable to
failure. Increases in water levels would sustain the higher amounts of wave energy
coming closer to the shore. While water level increases would permit larger waves to
come closer to the shore, increases in the intensity and duration of storms generating the
waves would further increase the vulnerability of coastal structures. The changes in the
intensity and duration of storms would result into changes in the wave climate. Building
is most likely to be collapsed under the effect of such strong wave action (Figure 4.4). The
possibility of the occurrence of more intense storms along the shores of Yemen is not
much known at the present. However, the structures in the pilot area likely to be affected
in this manner are the breakwaters of the fishing port, the revetments and sea walls of the
city and the shoreline defence along the road leading to the naval base. The maintenance
of these structures or their performing under ASLR would demand the re-assessment of
their structural integrity in the light of new evidence of water level increases. Note in
Figure 4.5. (plate), the wave is starting to break through the existence defence structure.
This line is most likely to be demolished in the very near future.
Figure 4.4 (Plate) Shows another building and coast line pounded by high energy
wave action.
Impacts on the pilot area
The ongoing erosion of the coastline will be aggravated by the onset of the accelerated
sea-level rise. This may affect the power station which exists along the coastal line as
well as the sand spit with a road leading to the naval base which is at the moment under
attack in high water conditions. It is also foreseen that if in the event of a major breach a
part of the spit is washed away, there could be significant changes in the tidal regime in
the bay area. Such changes could increase siltation of the access channel to the port.
Maintaining or not maintaining the spit will have a number of financial consequences,
c
49
OBSERVATION, RESEARCH AND VULNERABILITY
however, If a decision is taken not to maintain the spit, the consequences for the access
channel to the port would have to be investigated by carrying out a computer modelling
study.
Figure 4.5 (plate) Newly built defense structure (1999) in the pilot area.
Impacts on the city of Hodeidah
The shores in Hodeidah are sandy, with slanting character. This plays a great role in the
water overflow in the residential and commercial regions and in the coastal region
especially near the old city of Hodeidah. In Figure 4.6 note the absence of the beach while
in Figure 4.7 the main road is approximately 40cm lower than the shoreline.
Figure 4.6 (plate) Shows a stone built sea-wall structure of Hodeidah front.
50
OBSERVATION, RESEARCH AND VULNERABILITY
Figure 4.7 (plate) Shows the other side of the coastline shown in Figure (4.6)
The losses along the coastal area caused by expected overflow of seawater and their cost
in US dollars are summarised in Table (4.7).
Table (4.7) Losses and costs due to ASLR
Description
Cost in $ US
15,070 Houses
15 km asphalt roads
35 km paved roads
2 agricultural facility.
22 primary schools (12 classes each)
9 secondary schools (9 classes each)
2 High education faculties
1 Marine College
Health
3 (2 hospitals & 1 health centre)
Tourism:
One 4* hotel, 8 medium size hotel
26 governmental buildings and Presidential house
20 Mosques
15 Parks
Electricity
Ras Kateib power station
Sewage system
Water supply
Communication facility.
Industry
4 large and 20 medium size 150 small size
The Port
7 platforms, 2 floating platforms for oil, area of marketing
goods and containers, etc.
Others
51
759,075,900
8,888,900
555,555
444,444
6,528,512
1,777,778
25,925,926
29,629,630
6,518,520
16,296,292
72,592,587
14,814,800
3,333,330
8,148,148
2,962,963
3,703,704
2,222,222
11,825,855
239,185,185
74,074,075
OBSERVATION, RESEARCH AND VULNERABILITY
Saline water intrusion
The fresh-sea water interface is diagonal and has a maximum depth of 300m within the
inland distance of less than 10Kms from the coast. Under the sea level rise, using sharp
interface approach, the interface has been relocated, vertically according to GhybenHerzberg relation (40 times the change in the aquifer water table relating to the original
sea level), and horizontally using trigonometrical relationships. This distance in the study
area is estimated to be 400 times of the changes in the seal level. An area of 20 km2
would be affected by the saline intrusion. This implies that wells or boreholes located in
this zone would start withdrawing saline water causing losses in cultivable areas.
Fortunately, no wells exist in this zone at the moment and, hence, in future any
development in this area should be discouraged.
3.4 Concluding Remarks
Negative/positive impact assessment for the three sectors, namely water, agriculture and
coastal zone, clearly indicates the vulnerability of these sectors. Water resources,
however, are most vulnerable and the situation could be disastrous to the country if no
immediate action is taken.
52
5. MEASURES TO REDUCE GHG EMISSION AND ADAPTATION
TO CLIMATE CHANGE
5.1. Introduction
Yemen as a developing country, not included in the Annex I countries of the UNFCCC,
has no commitment to greenhouse gas emission reduction. However, it could undertake
voluntary obligation to limit it with the assistance of the developed countries within the
frame of the corresponding mechanisms for implementation of the Convention, which
unfortunately has not been agreed clearly by the CoP. Therefore, greenhouse gas
abatement as evaluated and developed in accordance with Yemen's national priorities was
intended to improve its people’s living standards, develop its improvement of
infrastructure and increase its economic growth, based on sustained development and
preservation of environment.
Adaptability can be defined as the degree to which adjustments are possible in practices
process and structure of systems to projected or actual change of climate. Adaptation can
be spontaneous or planned and can be carried out in response to or in anticipation of
changes in conditions (IPCC, 1996). In the context of vulnerability and assessment
studies for initial national communication of non-Annex I, this definition of adaptation is
too broad and does not distinguish between adaptation at the individual, institutional and
government levels. Mitigation & Adaptation measures were considered assuming the
national scope, which would require coordinated actions of ministries and government
agencies, non government organizations and general public.
5.2. Mitigation measures
To project future energy demand for each energy sector, National Statistical Office’s
annual growth rate were adopted for required sectors. There are 3.5% annual growth for
household and for commercial sector. 4% and 6% where adopted for general services and
the use of LPG, respectively. Annual growth rate over the time horizon for industrial,
transport and agriculture sectors are assumed to be 7.75%, 6.75% and 5.6% respectively.
Table (5.1) depicts the projection of the total inland energy requirement up to the year
2020, while Figure (5.1) shows projected energy requirement by sectors for the base year
1995 and the year 2020. In 1995 the transport sector and household sector dominated the
total energy requirement. By the year 2020, they would remain the dominating sectors.
However, the energy requirement for transport sector would be far much than that of the
household sector and would remain a major source of pollution.
Table 5.1: Projections of total inland energy requirement
(Baseline scenario)
Fuel
1995
2000
2005
Petroleum products
113.38
159.71
209.24
Electricity
5.66
7.61
10.44
Fuelwood
32.31
34.68
33.54
Charcoal
0.09
0.14
0.15
Total
151.45
202.13
253.38
53
by fuel type in million GJ
2010
261.72
14.07
31.17
0.17
307.13
2020
377.19
24.82
21.28
0.20
423.48
MEASURES TO REDUCE GHG EMISSION AND ADAPTATION
Total energy requirements
300
million GJ
250
1995
200
2020
150
100
50
0
Households
Commercial
Industrial
Transport
Agriculture
Sector
Figure 5.1: Projections by sector for the base year and the year 2020
The electrical power supply required to cover the electrical energy consumption and
the expected losses caused thereby would rise from 424 MW effective generation
(2422GWh) in 1995 to 3819 MW total capacity generation (10,606 GWh) by the year
2020.
The GHG emissions result mainly from fuels, such as petroleum products, Fuelwood
or charcoals and natural gas. The total amount of GHG emissions for the energy sector
in 1995 was 10.94 million tons CO2 equivalent. This value is projected to increase to
36.15 million tones CO2 equivalent by the year 2020 based on the baseline scenario.
This increase is considered to be around 3.3 times higher over a period of 25 years.
The GHG emissions estimated as a result of the baseline scenario are illustrated in
Figure 5.2.
Million tonnes CO 2 equivalent
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2020
Figure 5.2: The global warming potential estimated as a result of the baseline scenario
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MEASURES TO REDUCE GHG EMISSION AND ADAPTATION
5.2.1. Scenario of GHG Emissions
An assessment study of mitigation options in Yemen over a period of 25 years was
conducted using 1995 as the base year. Based on the assumptions of existing situations
and changes in the future governed by the available indicators and socio-economic
projections, a baseline scenario of GHG emission till the year 2020 was developed.
With this baseline scenario of GHG emission, the CO2 and Methane emissions
appeared to be the major contributors to the National GHG emission. With this in
mind, two out of several scenarios developed were chosen to fulfil the objective of
reducing emissions gradually by 5%, 12.5% and 20% by the year 2005, 2010 and 2020
respectively.
The two mitigation scenarios considering both the demand and supply side of the
energy sectors are described below.
Scenario 1
On the Demand-Side mitigation options certain measures and assumption were taken
into account in different demand sectors. These measures and assumption are as
follows:
a. Household sector (urban and rural)
 Switch to energy/equipment with lower GHG emissions (substituting
electric for kerosene and LPG lamps, solar water heating for electric heating,
LPG stoves for Fuelwood stoves)
b. Transport sector
 Reduce taxes on new vehicles
 Raise taxes on old vehicles
 Switch to natural gas technology and solar technology
c. Industrial sector
 Fuel switching to natural gas and renewable energy
 Rational use of energy
d. Commercial sector
 Switch to energy/equipment with lower GHG emissions
 Energy-efficient equipment
e. Agriculture
 Switch to solar irrigation systems
On the Supply-side mitigation option, the electrical power sector is the largest
contributor to GHG emissions and therefore the best option is to switch over to the use
of fuel on a gradual basis, and further from the use of fuel oil for power generation to
the use of natural gas in high-efficiency combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power
plants. This gradual switching will reduce the quantity of burnt fuel from 80% to 5%
by the year 2020, which in turn will drive a considerable reduction in emissions.
Increasing the use of solar electricity for remote rural areas will also have the same
effect.
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MEASURES TO REDUCE GHG EMISSION AND ADAPTATION
The option considered in scenario 1 comprises a gradual replacement of existing plants by
new CCGT-power plants with a capacity of 100 MW and a conversion efficiency of at
least 44%.
Scenario 2
In this scenario, considerations are similar to those of scenario 1 except a gradual
replacement of existing plants with new CCGT-power plants with a capacity of 200 MW
and a conversion efficiency of at least 52%, instead of that used in scenario1 with lower
capacity value of 100 MW.
The achievement of both scenarios shows that the Global warming potential will increase
from 10.94 million tons CO2 equivalent in 1995 to 28.88 million ton equivalent CO2 and
28.17 million tons equivalent CO2 for scenario 1 and 2 respectively. It will be an increase
of approximately 2.6 fold of GHG emission over a period of 25 years compared to that of
3.3 fold increase of the baseline scenario. Thus a good reduction was achieved by both
scenarios. Figure 5.3.shows the reduction achievement compared to the targeted values.
Obviously scenario 2 meets very closely the set target percentage reduction. On the other
hand, scenario 1 did not deviate much either.
The average emission reduction from baseline scenario for scenario 1 will be around
2935 million kg/year of CO2. This gives per reduction a leveled cost of 21.27 US$/ton
(real 1995 US$/ton) and a leveled cost of 62.42 million US$/year. For scenario 2 the
average emission reduction will be around 3252 million kg/year of CO2 which gives
per reduction a leveled cost of 21.72 US$/ton (real 1995 US$/ton) and a leveled annual
cost of 70.64 million US$/year.
The cost benefit analysis shows that there is a cost benefit ratio of 0.4501 if scenario 1
is considered and 0.4198 if scenario 2 is considered.
Reduction
in %
25
Scenario 2
20
15
Scenario 1
10
5
Target
(Baseline scenario)
0
2005
2010
2020
Figure 5.3 Expected CO2 reduction for the two scenarios
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MEASURES TO REDUCE GHG EMISSION AND ADAPTATION
5.2.2. An Overview of Measures (Options)
A sustained development of Yemen makes it necessary for the country to develop a
comprehensive national action plan to identify and implement different possible
mitigation and adaptation options to reduce GHG emissions and to cope with climate
change. Such a plan would unify and guide the efforts of different institutions involved to
a fruitful coordination and cooperation and to implementation.
In addition to those options included in the a.m. mitigation scenario, a number of other
mitigation measures can be introduced:
5.2.2.1. SUPPLY SIDE MEASURES
Power generation
a) Efficient power generation, transmission and distribution
This implies the improvement of the efficiency of the existing power plants, reduction of
transmission and distribution losses, integration, where feasible of renewable energy
sources for electricity generation to cover the auxiliary power supply of power plants and
substations and hence increasing the overall efficiency, and supplementing conventional
power plants gradually with solar thermal plants to save fuel.
b) Switch to efficient power generation for new generation capacities that are to be
installed. CCGT plants use two stages of energy extraction from the fuel (gas and steam
turbines), allowing overall efficiencies to approach 60%. They are best suited for central
(interconnected) power supply. CHP-systems (Combined Heat and Power) with overall
efficiencies of more than 80% are appropriate for decentralized power supply and can be
used for rural electrification, and in industrial, commercial and residential sectors. CHPsystems generate electricity and thermal energy in a single, integrated system.
The thermal energy recovered in a CHP system can be used for heating or cooling in
industries or buildings. The significant increase in efficiency with CHP results in lower
fuel consumption reduced emissions compared with separate generation of heat and
power.
c) Promote the use of renewable energy sources for electricity generation.
For many rural areas in Yemen, especially where population is dispersed in scattered
dwellings, grid connection is economically not feasible. Power supply using diesel units
is technically non-feasible. Therefore, renewable energy-based decentralized power
supply using PV-systems (Solar Home Systems), wind energy converters, where feasible,
and biomass, in stand-alone and hybrid schemes will be the best alternative.
Yemen can also generate electricity on a large scale from renewable energy sources
because of its location and climate diversity. Solar thermal power plants and wind farms
can directly make grid-connected operations and substitute huge amounts of fossil fuels
fired in conventional power plants.
Fuel switching to natural gas
Natural gas is environmental friendly and is considered as the fuel of the future. Due to
the enhanced fiscal incentives offered by the government, more international investment
in the gas sector is expected. It is planned that natural gas should be widely used for
power generation and industry, in addition to the residential and commercial sectors in
rural and urban parts of the country.
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MEASURES TO REDUCE GHG EMISSION AND ADAPTATION
5.2.2.2. DEMAND SIDE MEASURES
As identified earlier, the household and transport sectors are the most energy-intensive
sectors in Yemen and therefore the main sources of GHG emissions. Strict energy saving
policy should be especially implemented for these sectors. In the following paragraphs,
measures are briefly presented for application in the main sectors.
Residential and Commercial Sectors
a) Launching energy-efficiency programs through establishing energy efficiency
standards and labeling. With efficient appliances, Yemen can enhance the overall
efficiency of its national economy and meet climate change goals and avert
urban/regional pollution. The substantial savings obtained by countries that have
implemented energy efficiency programs demonstrate the enormous potential waiting to
be tapped.
b) Appropriate energy use regulations should be introduced.
c) Public awareness campaigns should be implemented. The integration of energy saving
and environment awareness concepts in education and curricula (schools, vocational and
technical institutes, universities) is of major significance. All communication media can
be exploited for this purpose. The NGO's can play an important role in this respect.
d) Regulations for energy-efficient buildings should be issued. No energy-related codes
and/or regulations and standards exist till now in Yemen. While traditional Yemeni
buildings that were built in harmony with local environment by means of local
construction materials are considered energy efficient and most of them energy-sufficient,
a huge amount of (heating/cooling) energy is lost in modern concrete buildings and
constructions due to inappropriate thermal insulation of construction materials.
e) Passive use of solar energy. It comprises the use of appropriate structural measures to
heat buildings, provide lighting or air-conditioning. Passive solar measures extend beyond
the simple approaches to thermal insulation. They should explicitly take account of the
diurnal and annual variation in the solar radiation to create pleasant living conditions and
also save energy. No negative aspects are observed for the passive use of solar energy.
It is important to choose the right direction now in the formulation of building
regulations, and building contractors and architects should be made aware of these
aspects, so that the application of new technologies and designs can be encouraged at
least in the new building sector.
f) Active use of solar energy. The promotion of the use of solar water heaters to meet the
demand of hot water for residential and commercial sectors will have huge energy
savings. Electric water heaters consume about 60% of the electrical energy in northern
regions in Yemen in winter and nearly the same rate is consumed by cooling loads (airconditioning, ventilation, refrigeration) in southern and eastern regions. Efforts to
promote the use of solar-driven air-conditioning and solar refrigeration should be
encouraged for the same reason.
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MEASURES TO REDUCE GHG EMISSION AND ADAPTATION
Transport sector
The use of energy in this sector should be rationalized through the following measures:
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
Improve fuel efficiency.
Establish an efficient traffic management system
Encourage import of fuel-efficient vehicles.
Increase efficiency of freight transport
Shift from gasoline and diesel to LPG
Launch awareness raising programs
Industrial sector
a. Fuel switching to natural gas as discussed above.
b. Rational use of energy. Energy saving, waste heat recovery, optimization of existing
energy conservation and production processes, use of energy-efficient equipment,
CPH- (co-generation) systems are very promising.
c. Integration of renewable energy sources in the industrial energy supplies concepts.
Solar water heaters and solar collector systems can replace electric ones; process heat
or steam can be supplied by solar concentrator systems (e.g. parabolic troughs).
Where feasible, electricity generation from solar energy (PV) and/or wind can
contribute partially to cover the industrial electrical demand.
5.3. Adaptation measures
The proposed adaptation measures are generally applicable to national level, however, as
the studies were area-specific or crop-specific, specific adaptations were also assessed for
the study areas.
5.3.1. Water resources:
National water strategy
Study results indicate high vulnerability of water resources to potential climate change
impacts and the serious dimensions of the water crisis in Yemen which is primarily
manifested by decrease and shift in rainfall distribution, scarcity of water resources,
depletion of groundwater, low efficiency of water use, and by low coverage of water and
sanitation services. The need for rational use of water resources in Yemen becomes even
more urgent in view of the potential anthropogenic climate change, and such a strategy
should be accepted as the water management policy in the country, as several adverse
effects (e.g. desertification) may take place.
In an attempt to avoid future catastrophes, water crisis has been addressed at the official
and public levels, within a comprehensive national water strategy, which set for the longterm objectives and principles of the water sector. The government has adopted the
following water strategy, and will supplement it with a set of policies and action plans to
help achieve its objectives, such as irrigation policy, water utility policy, and wastewater
policy. Incorporating climate change impact assessment results into Yemen's national
development plans has not yet been worked out. This is mainly because the results
obtained are considered preliminary as it covers only part of the country. Further research
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MEASURES TO REDUCE GHG EMISSION AND ADAPTATION
will be required for application of the results to the whole country.
The proposed National Strategy of water resources sector adaptation of Yemen comprises
several measures that can be grouped under:
1. Measures to support development and management of water
resources
2. Measures for private sector participation
3. Measures for investment and water pricing
4. Legislation and institutional set-up measures
5. Capacity building and performance measures
Full practical implementation of adaptation measures will require significant investment
and a long period of time.
Priority adaptive measures for Abyan delta
Priority of measures allowing conservation and increase of water resources available for
economic activity on the Abyan Delta was assessed through the water resources
management model, which can be dealt with as follows:
(i) It is estimated that agriculture currently uses about 90% of the water resources in
Abyan Delta. Irrigation efficiency varies from 40-60% (averaged 55%). The improvement
in water use efficiency is one form of adaptation that has minimal costs. To increase
irrigation efficiency in Abyan delta from 58% in 1995 to 75% in 2025 and then to 80% in
the year 2050 would cost about 15.7 Million US dollars and would save a cumulative
total of 1300 Million cubic meter of groundwater allowing for the cropping pattern to be
changed toward cash crops.
(ii) The amount of water stored as groundwater in Abyan Delta is estimated as 5670
MCM. The annual recharge rate to groundwater aquifer is 18 MCM/year while annual
abstraction rate in 1995 was 68 MCM/year and is expected to increase to 187 MCM/year
by year 2050 due to fluctuation of rainfall and runoff under climate change. One feasible
adaptation to increase groundwater recharge is through capturing the surplus runoff that
goes to the Sea, averaged as 27 MCM/year by structural means. The cost of construction
of two medium size dams in Abyan delta is about 2.5 Million US dollars.
(iii) Abyan Delta supplied Aden City 11 MCM/year in 1995 from its groundwater aquifer
and it is expected to become 18 MCM/year by the year 2050. As the aquifers in Abyan
delta would start to be depleted partially starting year 2002, other sources for supply to
Aden city should be located as people in Abyan would not accept their water to be taken
away to Aden while their agriculture drying up and abandoned. Aden City is located near
the Gulf of Aden and hence desalination option represents a feasible measure
compensating Abyan Delta source. The construction of a desalination plan capable of
producing 15 MCM/year is about 45million US dollars.
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MEASURES TO REDUCE GHG EMISSION AND ADAPTATION
5.3.2. Agriculture
Simulated adjustments included a change in planting dates, i.e. altered varieties and
changed tillage practices. In addition, technological advances assumed irrigation
efficiency and crop drought resistance as well as improvement in a number of crop
specific characteristics, including water use efficiency, photosynthetic efficiency, harvest
index, earliness, yield stability, and disease and pest resistance.
A number of management options would be thought of, such as water harvesting, weed
control, use of machinery in planting and harvesting, improved seeds, better storage
conditions, etc.. Several management options are given below:
(i) Improved irrigation practices such as optimal scheduling of high frequency and lowvolume water delivery, adequate drainage and salinity control in Agricultural land already
irrigated, and extension of appropriate irrigation techniques to rainfed areas will be the
key element in expanding food production to meet increased demands in the future.
(ii) Traditional technologies, such as multiple cropping and terracing may serve to buffer
the smallholder farming system against climate variability by conserving soil moisture
and fertility and by increasing yield.
(iii) Climate change alters the amount and distribution of rain and thus the growing
season for crop also changes, and crop performance might be improved by shifting the
sowing date. However, farmers wait for the first rain in the season to plant wheat. If the
rain delays, they plant other crop, such as barley, lentils or fenugreek. And in this case
adaptation measures can be taken as producing varieties which can finish the production
cycle before the frost of weather sets in.
(iv) Less rainfall in the semi-arid highlands of Yemen may persuade farmers to cultivate
drought resistant crop such as barley, sorghum, lentils, etc., to alter crop management, to
change varieties, and to adopt better tillage practices. In addition, technological advances
will be expected in irrigation efficiency and crop drought resistance as well as
improvements in a number of crop specific characteristics, such as harvesting index and
photosynthetic efficiency.
Policy Options for Adaptations in Agriculture:
1- Develop new crop types and enhance seed banks: Seed banks having a variety of seed
types provide farmers with an opportunity to both counter the threat of climate change
and develop a profitable categorization.
2- Develop of more and better heat and drought resistant crops: It will help fulfil current
and future demand of food grains by enabling their production in marginal areas to
expand. This kind of improvement will be crucial because Yemen’s population will
continue to increase, regardless of climate change.
3- Avoid mono-culture and encourage farmers to plant a variety of heat and drought
resistant crops: Growing of single crops, such as sorghum, increases farmers’
vulnerability to climate variability. If the probability of drought and heat waves increases
with climate change, such vulnerability can further increase. One adaptation option for
farmers will be to plant a wide range of crops to reduce the risk of crop failure. Through
its agricultural extension service, the Yemen Government should advise farmers to grow
drought resistant food crops.
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MEASURES TO REDUCE GHG EMISSION AND ADAPTATION
4- Avoid tying subsides or taxes to the types of crop and acreage: Commodity support
programs or tax policies may discourage switching from one cropping system to the other
that is better suited to a changed climate. Therefore efforts to stabilize farm supply and
maintain farm income should avoid disincentive for farmers to switch and rotate crops
and use the full acreage normally planted. This policy approach will increase the
efficiency of current farming practices and will also increase the ability of the system to
quickly recover from climate change.
5- Increase efficiency of irrigation: Many farming technologies, such as efficient
irrigation systems, provide opportunities to reduce direct dependence on natural factors
such as rainfall and runoff. In evaluating improvement to irrigation systems, the
additional benefit of reducing vulnerability to climatic variations and natural disasters
should be considered. Utilizing highly efficient irrigation systems provides for sustainable
agriculture by reducing water consumption with minimal yield reductions as well as
releasing pressures on scarce water resources.
6- Disperse information on conservation management practices: Many practices such as
conservation, tillage, furrow, terracing, contouring and planting vegetation to act as
windbreak will protect fields from water and wind erosion and can help retain moisture
by reducing evaporation and increasing water infiltration. Using management practices
that reduce dependence on irrigation will reduce water consumption without reducing
crop yield.
7- Liberalize agriculture trade: Lowering trade barriers will result in higher levels of
global agricultural production both under the current climate and under climate change
scenarios. Farmers will receive information on changes of global market conditions faster
than if trade barriers were not lowered.
8- Promote agriculture drought management: Encourage Management practices that
recognize drought as part of highly variable climate and not treat it as a natural disaster
should be encouraged. Farmers should be given information on climatic conditions,
incentives should be offered to them to adopt sound practices for drought management.
They should also be discouraged from relying on drought relief aid.
9- Establish flexible mechanisms for intervention especially for dealing with Qat: In order
to limit Qat cultivation area expansion, new alternative cropping should be encouraged
and thus the eventual goal of phasing out Qat can be achieved.
10- Promote awareness of climatic variability and the potential risk of climate change:
This phenomenon is not well understood by people or by decision markers. Because
climatic adaptation will affect the individual, organizational and policy levels,
communication about the human significance of climatic variability is important at all
levels in a community. Increasing sensitivity to climate issues will facilitate adaptation of
measures to prepare for climatic variability and change.
11- Maintain options to develop new dam sites: In order to enhance water resources
through increasing run-off utilization and reducing water demand from the already
depleted groundwater aquifers to increase water supply, new dam sites should be
developed. Hence, creating better chances for protection against future drought, and
adopting early-warning planning for drought risk management should be promoted.
Additional adjustments for crops studied
The impact of climate change on crop yields reduction and net irrigation requirement
exhibits significant temporal and spatial variability. The social and economic cost/benefits
c
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MEASURES TO REDUCE GHG EMISSION AND ADAPTATION
of such variability is described below.
In the semi-humid areas, where wheat will show invulnerability to climate change and
less yield reduction in potato, expansion in the production of these crops will be more
likely. Provided that farm gate prices for wheat are going to increase as a result of the
lifting of wheat price subsidy rainfed wheat will be more attractive to farmers. On the
other hand, great attention should be paid to soil drainability in potato fields, when the
wet scenario will prevail. Cost-effective drainage systems should be considered.
In the semi-arid areas, the need for both supplemental and conventional irrigation is more
likely, due to water shortage for both potato and wheat. Additional investment will be
needed for installing necessary irrigation management facilities. Increased attention must
be paid to conserving scarce water supply. Further deterioration of water resources related
to climate change is predicted.
In the arid areas, further deterioration in water resources related to climate change is
predicted, particularly in the Marib area, where the irrigation water demand is higher than
that of other regions of the country. It is anticipated that even mild climate change (OSUscenario) could cause severe pressure on water, where the available water resources are
insufficient. Consequent socio-economic measures should be given due consideration.
For the sake of plant protection, a careful chemical treatment will have to be increased so
that waters resources are not polluted. Thus, climate change would provide better
conditions for the development of pests, and increase the cost of protection. Otherwise,
insufficient plant protection measures will reduce the profit of agricultural crops.
5.4.3. Coastal zone
Policy adaptation options:
Managing shorelines in the environment of global sea level rising has been a great
challenge. Historically, the primary choice of measure for managing coastal erosion has
been the protection of shorelines with hard-engineered structures. The high cost of
protection, in the order of US$2,000 per meter of protected shoreline for sandy shores,
should be borne in mind when making decisions about the construction of hard defences.
Besides, the high cost associated with coastal protection, protecting one segment of
shoreline often translates the problem to the downdrift shores. The case of protection on
sandy beaches with the bedrock not shallow enough to provide a good foundation for
coastal structures has rendered such structures under these environments to serve only as
a temporary measure. Either the beach will have to be replenished periodically at great
cost or armour rock will have to be added to maintain the structure with time. The longterm cost can be prohibitive.
In response to lessons learnt on managing shorelines and the high cost associated with
shoreline hardening, it has become prudent to manage shoreline considering all options
available. Retreating inland from the existing line of flood defence may be necessary for
coastal protection, while monitoring and maintaining an awareness of the consequences
c
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MEASURES TO REDUCE GHG EMISSION AND ADAPTATION
of retreat. The concept requires an understanding of the entire process influencing
shoreline dynamics to enable appropriate intervention when necessary. It includes:
 Set back, which means allowing space between the shoreline and associated coastal
hazard and property to act as buffer, is most suited for coastal areas that are not yet
developed. Knowledge of historical rates of erosion for the particular coastal segment is
required. With the assumption that this rate will remain the same in the future, a line (set
back) is determined where the shoreline position will not reach during the life of proposed
structures within the area. The usual trend is to fix the set back using the projected
shoreline position after 60 years. So if the rate of erosion is 2 m per year, the set back will
be set at 120 m from the shoreline.
The advantages for such a measure is that it enables nature to take its own course and
avoids the need to put up expensive protection with resources, which are often not
available. Even when resources are available they should be used for other developmental
purposes.
 Controlled abandonment: Requires abandoning the existing line of defence and
allowing nature to redefine the shoreline position. Monitoring would be required regularly
and possible intervention in the form of protection applied when necessary would also be
required to achieve objectives in respect of environmental enhancement.
 Full protection: Deliberate actions are needed to maintain the shoreline position at a
particular location often through the design and construction of artificial structures. The
structures include revetments, sea walls, groynes, artificial headlands and beach
nourishment. These are some suggested criteria to determine the areas for full protection.
Various reports have suggested the protection of all areas with a population density of 10
persons per square kilometre.
 Do nothing: Refers to the option that involves the abandoning of the existing line of
defence without any future monitoring or intervention of any kind.
The various options of managed retreat will be considered for each of the shoreline
segments. For the shores that have remained undeveloped, more detailed assessment of
the situation is possible to come up with a rational response.
Adaptation measures for pilot area
CITY AREA
The losses associated with do nothing or abandoning about a quarter of the city amount to
some US$ 1,3 billion. It is clear that this option is not acceptable and that full protection
should be provided. This protection will vary along the coastline according to local
requirements, and will comprise a number of elements:
 southern part of the city: raising of the level of the rock revetment;
 fishing port: raising of area level; in the long term probably strengthening of the
breakwaters;
 north of fishing port: raising of the level of the rock revetment;
 Cornish area: raising of the level of the wall; check on the stability of the
foundations of the sea wall since it is expected that the beach will be eroded away;
 Construction of a sea wall at the northern part of the city area.
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MEASURES TO REDUCE GHG EMISSION AND ADAPTATION
Summing up, considerable strengthening of the existing constructions will be required
over a length of approximately 10 km. Assuming an average cost of US$ 2 million per km
the total cost will amount to US$ 20 million.
SAND SPIT
There is a risk that in the coming years an increasingly longer length of road will be
provided with stone protection to prevent the road from being washed away. Before this
happens the relevant authorities should decide whether to indefinitely maintain this road
to the naval base at large costs in the future or to abandon the sand spit and move the
naval base. As described before, abandoning will probably mean a breaching of the spit
and a changed current regime in the access channel to the port, leading to increased
siltation. The decision to be taken must also weigh these consequences.
5.4. Education, Training, and Public awareness
The Environmental Protection Law of Yemen enacted in 1995 paved the way for most
environmental programs in Yemen, including signing and ratification of the UNFCCC by
Yemen. Article 6 of the UNFCCC requires Parties to the convention to promote and
facilitate the development and implementation of education and public awareness
programs on climate change and its impact.
Education and awareness on climate change, its implications and ramifications on nation's
natural resources, economy etc. are of utmost importance in the formation of
environmentally aware and enlightened citizens.
The preparation of the national communication in early 1998 was the first step in the
actual implementation of the UNFCCC in Yemen. During that process, special emphasis
was put on strengthening the dialogue, information exchange and cooperation among all
the relevant stakeholders including governmental, non-governmental, academic and
private sector representatives at technical as well as political level. By doing so, it is
believed that a process of educating and taking increasingly climate change related issues
into account in the general planning and strategy formulation process in the country has
been facilitated- not only as an obligation but also as an opportunity to introduce new
strategies and technologies on a "win-win" basis. Involvement and cooperation of all
relevant stakeholders have been achieved through organizing a number of national
workshops funded by NCCSAP by the PMU. In addition, national experts, hired to
implement the activities, have liaised and conducted their studies in close consultation
with the relevant ministries and other stakeholders and they incorporated a summary of
official inputs and comments of these institutions into their final report.
A general strategy regarding the target audience for the workshops was to make the
"policy oriented" workshops accessible to a broader audience, including both policy
makers and technical experts from the governmental as well as from the private sector.
Technical training/coordination workshops were meant more for the people actually
conducting studies so that their capacity could be built. The latter has benefited from the
NCSSAP/GEF funding in building capacity for the preparation of the national
communication, where several training workshops were held on how to conduct national
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MEASURES TO REDUCE GHG EMISSION AND ADAPTATION
studies (greenhouse gas inventory, mitigation, vulnerability and adaptation on water,
agriculture and coastal zone).
Several seminars, meetings and local workshops were organized at some universities in
Yemen to further encourage and stimulate interest in climate change and its
environmental impacts among the researchers, professionals and students. Coverage of
these events by the popular and easy means of communication, TV, Radio, and
Newspapers and separate talks given by local and foreign experts further facilitated
reaching to the largest audience.
Climate change per se has not yet been included in the curricula of the formal education
system in Yemen as it is a new, developing science. However, climate change and related
issues have been included in various courses offered by the university of Sana'a and
Aden, especially in earth and environmental sciences, agriculture, geography and
Engineering.
"Environmental clubs" have been created in primary and secondary schools and some
information and training on climate change and its impact with other environmental
issues has been given to the active members.
Awareness-promoting materials such as, posters, pamphlets, on climate change also can
help to promote climate change understanding and raise the level of public awareness in
concrete everyday terms.
A few recently established environmental NGOs, such as the Yemen Society for
Environmental Conservation, contribute to the raising of public awareness and education
on environmental issues. It also serves as an informal forum to exchange information and
views on environmental issues between its members from different ministries,
universities, etc. Climate change has been taken into the main stream of their
environmental discussions.
People also become aware of climate change from their own observation of some rapid
changes taking place, such as increasingly warmer seasons, erratic rainfall, drought
followed by exceptionally heavy rains, coastal erosion and reduced yield in agriculture,
presence of Malaria in the cold highland areas, and public inquest. People do not
necessarily understand the scientific principle of climate change as the underlying cause
of the observed effects of rapid changes in climate. Still it formed a resource base for
non-formal education, which is being encouraged. EPC took the initiative to inform many
journalists about climate change, many of whom put up lengthy reportage, included
opinions of several officials from relevant institutions and published an interesting series
of articles on the effects of climate change which directly affect people in their everyday
life.
The observations and views of many researchers and scientists working in the area of
water, agriculture and coastal climate related aspects in Yemen, expressed in personal
discussions, symposia or professional meetings were broadcast and televised.
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6. CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH NEEDS
The Republic of Yemen, being vulnerable to impacts of climate change, is interested in
conducting systematic observation of all relevant variables to climate change
phenomenon. Also local experts and researchers are keen to participate in international
activities and programs related to the Global Climate Change to fulfil the commitments of
the country towards the implementation of the climate change convention.
The level of awareness of climate change phenomenon and its effect is very low in
Yemen, mainly due to the relatively short time since the start of the actual implementation
of the UNFCCC. The process of gathering appropriate literature on climate change and
making it available to policy makers is actively on. However, more assistance (financial
and technical) is required to support meaningful climate change research building
capacity. Building national capacity in climate change is likely to create more interest in
and ensure meaningful debate on the issue of climate change in Yemen.
Proper data organization is vital to address climate change issues. There is a need to
centralize all climate change related data. The location of such an important data bank
should rest with the Environmental Protection Council, the focal point of UNFCCC in
Yemen.
There are significant financial constraints in conducting longitudinal or even mediumscale scientific research (e.g., gathering field data). Such constraints adversely affect the
construction, validity and reliability of national studies. Although the findings of pilot
studies that focus on a “representative” area can be generalised, the results may not be
totally realistic. Only three studies were conducted over selected sites to assess the
negative impact of climate change. There is a great need for further understanding of its
likely impacts and adaptation at a national level for sectors covered during the preparation
of the initial National Communication using a more integrated approach. More
comprehensive research is required to complete work on impact and adaptation for
sectors partially analyzed during the preparation of the initial National Communication as
well as other specified sectors not covered yet, but likely to be effected by climate
change, such as human health, desertification and land degradation. Impact assessment of
climate change in these sectors should be done on a priority basis. Sufficient funding is
needed to create an information pool and to make available the appropriate software
programs for data analysis, documentation and dissemination, especially as climate
change is a new subject in Yemen. Expertise in research related to climate change is
important and Yemen requires developing research capacity in various related disciplines.
The few studies conducted for preparation of this initial National Communication
provided indication of possible areas where further work ought to be done. Gaps in
information for these sectors are reported below.
Water resources
- Conducting impact assessment on other sites that will enable regionalization of
results for the whole country. Areas that experience high stresses of water
resources at the moment and hence are more vulnerable.
- Identification of potential adjustments and adaptation measures to climate change,
as it will vary greatly from one region to another.
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RESEARCH NEEDS
- A critical area for future study would be assessing the impact of measures of
National Water Strategy under the different climate scenarios for Yemen.
- Technology assessment
Agricultural production
Most of the proposed measures for agricultural production lean heavily on the assumption
that both research and extension are fully operational. So the Government policy and
support for research and development considerably influences the agricultural production
sector.
- Strategic research planning and a well-directed research programme are needed to
study crops and livestock that are more drought tolerant and disease resistant.
- Sustained research on short-season, high-yield crop varieties and livestock breeds
is of paramount importance.
Coastal zone
a) Delineation of other flood and erosion hazard areas
The study of the Hodeidah pilot area carried out during the preparation of this document,
has shown that ASLR has already started showing its effect on that part of the coast by
aggravating the existing erosion problems. It is likely that similar problems would occur
along other parts of the Yemen shoreline. Therefore it is recommended that the coastal
vulnerability study be extended to other parts of the coasts of the Red Sea and the Arabian
Sea. The study should be based on the Seven Steps approach for vulnerability studies and
will comprise the following activities:
- definition of the locations and the extent of land area affected by the hazards and
probabilities of the hazards occurring; identification of vulnerable shorelines
could be carried out by using the available topographic maps, scale 1:50,000 or
1:100,000, or RS images, some of which are reported to be available in the
country;
- description of the natural environment of these locations;
- description of the socio-economic characteristics of the locations;
- impact of ASLR on natural and socio-economic conditions;
- definition of the vulnerability profile;
Processed data can be stored in the COZMIS (Coastal Information System), developed by
Delft Hydraulics and made available to the EPC, November 1999.
b) Increase understanding of coastal processes
Current understanding of coastal processes is practically non-existent. In particular, the
causes of erosion, the ability to predict erosion both in the short and long term, and the
prediction of shoreline dynamics or morphology with time have a profound influence on
shoreline management. The tidal gauge, which has just been established in the Port of
Hodeidah, will provide the necessary information on sea level changes.
A practical approach is likely to strengthen the new unit to be set up in the Governorate of
Hodeidah through assistance and training.
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RESEARCH NEEDS
GHG inventory
For national GHG inventory the following gap in the national study had been found:
- GHG emission from transport sector was caused by a wide variety of vehicles in
Yemen. A study is required to identify which vehicle type is most important and
what are the factors affecting their emissions. Moreover, the study can investigate
replacement of old cars with the new ones and the expected CO2 reduction.
- The only source for carbon monoxide and nitrous oxide emission from agricultural
sector was the crop waste burning process. Due to unavailability of specific data as
weight, age, feed intake and production of each animal type, only the tier 1
approach was used. It is believed that a high degree of uncertainty is associated
with the 1995 emission estimates as a result of the use of tier1 instead of tier2
approach. To use tier2 approach, a study with the objective to develop the
country's specific figures is required for the application of tier2 as stipulated in
IPCC guidelines to be conducted.
- A household energy strategy study was carried out only for parts of the country
during 1987. It extension to cover the whole country is required.
- The result obtained for land use change and forestry could change substantially if a
well-documented inventory of forestation, afforestation, tree plantation and
removal is made available to the developer of the next GHG inventory update. The
availability of such an inventory would help in developing GHG inventory of
wider temporal coverage by including sub-sources and regions uncovered by
present initial inventory into the upcoming inventory update. Specifically, the
proposed inventory will help in realistically addressing CO2 offsetting by
re-growing biomass through securing the necessary information on dispersed trees
and date palms in order to be included in the biomass stock calculation. The same
applies to missing information on forestland and grassland converted to croplands
over the last 20 years.
- The present inventory has not provided emissions /uptake by soil for the southern
part of Yemen, as this part of the country is not included in the current soil survey.
This status is likely to hinder future estimates of CO2 emission/removal from this
source unless a comprehensive soil survey is made. Similarly, Yemen's data bases
are still under development to fully satisfy data needs for comprehensive inventory
concerning CO2 removal from the abandonment of managed lands.
- Updating soil survey is also another prerequisite for preparing second GHG
inventory as the current soil survey only covers northern parts of Yemen while the
southern parts are not covered by the survey because it was prepared before the
unification.
- Future projection of GHG emission from all sectors in Yemen is required.
For mitigation analysis the following gap in the national study had been found:
-
Abatement analysis for GHG reduction was carried out only for energy sector.
Non-energy sectors mitigation options and enhancing GHG sink assessment are
required.
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RESEARCH NEEDS
-
-
New renewable energy resources, There is no reliable data available about the
installed renewable-energy based systems, no national program has been launched
so far. Different authorities and institutions launch and operate their own systems,
especially in the telecommunication, rural electrification, military, agriculture and
education sectors. Few solar water heaters have been installed and modest
demonstration projects on desalination and crop dryers are scarcely available or
carried out by researchers in academic institutions. Recently, EPC took initiative
to coordinate within Climate Change framework to coordinate between different
parties as a body responsible for promotion of renewable energies at the national
level. To make this initiative effective, assistance from international funding is
needed.
Given that transport is expected to become the most important source of
emissions in the country, special considerations should be given to improving and
enhancing the use of public transportation in the construction of future mitigation
scenarios.
The recent fund made available by GEF/UNDP will help capacity building and facilitate
starting the preparation of the urgently needed follow up projects regarding technology
assessment and technology transfer which will be ready, by completion of enabling
activity phase II, in early 2001. That fund will also help starting of formulating
appropriate national policy to include climate change issues into planning.
70
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