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The 7th Annual Session of the Amman
Model United Nations Conference
AMMUN 08
November 19 – 24, 2008
Closing Session
“Future Peace and Security Risks”
By
Talal Abu-Ghazaleh
Chair & CEO, Talal Abu-Ghazaleh Organization (TAGorg)
www.tagorg.com
Vice Chairman Board of Directors, United Nations Global Compact, New York
www.globalcompact.org
Chair, ICC Business Action to Support the Information Society (BASIS)-Paris
www.iccwbo.org
Vice Chair, United Nations Global Alliance for ICT and Development (GAID)
www.un-gaid.org
Executive Board, International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), Paris
www.iccwbo.org
Future Peace and Security Risks
By
Talal Abu-Ghazaleh
The 20th Century witnessed two “World Wars” and countless other major ones,
numerous genocides, natural and man-made environmental disasters and
existential threats to human civilization; from the Cold War and it’s geo-political
balance of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) to Chernobyl and the IraqAmerican wars the 20th century was a frightening and terrible time for the human
race. It is a frightening thought that the 21st Century could, while very different,
be just as bad if not worse in collateral damage to human societies.
Looking toward the future we can see that there are unique assets we have
available to us in the 21st Century, while there are also significant challenges that
did not exist, or were less pronounced in the previous century. One of the most
obvious of the assets is technology. Communications and transportation
technology have spurred the trend toward globalization, which while it has roots
going deep into the past, is in its current incarnation a fundamentally new and
modern experience. While transportation technology (air, sea and automotive
transport) have developed extensively, it is the information and communication
technologies that have truly brought our world together as a global entity. The
ability of individuals to communicate through audio and video links in real-time on
a global basis has made the world a smaller and more intimate place. It has
allowed communities to grow that span continents (Facebook, Myspace,
Youtube, Wikipedia, etc.).
It has also allowed individuals to share what is
happening around the world in real time; this can have very positive impacts.
One can easily wonder how history would have played out if bloggers and
YouTube video posters had documented the machinery of the Nazi Holocaust
back in 1938 or 1939 and the world had been faced with that horror before it was
so massively successful; perhaps the European Jews would exist in larger
numbers and in Europe and not in Palestine. One can also speculate whether
today’s ICT resources might have overcome the reluctance of European and
American governments in 1994 to intervene in the Rwandan Genocide, or the
many others that took place in . If Rwandan Tutsis had had access to Flip video
cameras and You Tube and Facebook, maybe the world wouldn’t have sat on its
hands.
There is no doubt that ICTs which have played such a significant role in social
and economic development also have a significant role to play in mitigating
threats to peace and security in the current era and the future. Just as ICTs have
played a key role advancing the conduct of war, they also have a role in avoiding,
ending and ameliorating conflict and the ramifications of conflicts. Yet, despite all
the advances that technology brings, technology itself remains a double-edged
sword, and it remains to be seen whether humans will, in the final analysis, be
the winners or the losers in man’s race for supremacy over nature.
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The range of threats to the security of the world’s people is a paranoid’s plethora.
There are so many interrelated threats that it is hard to know where to begin a
summation of the problems. One of the greatest challenges is that threats to
peace and security are interrelated and feed on each other. Cause and effect
are so complex that even a Nobel scientist with the most advanced models would
be challenged to diagram them. But let’s look at just a few key issues.
1. Global Climate Change
a. According to former US Vice President Al Gore, “In the last 150
years, in an accelerating frenzy, we have been removing increasing
quantities of carbon from the ground — mainly in the form of coal
and oil — and burning it in ways that dump 70 million tons of CO2
every 24 hours into the Earth’s atmosphere. The concentrations of
CO2 — having never risen above 300 parts per million for at least a
million years — have been driven from 280 parts per million at the
beginning of the coal boom to 383 parts per million this year.As a
direct result, many scientists are now warning that we are moving
closer to several “tipping points” that could — within 10 years —
make it impossible for us to avoid irretrievable damage to the
planet’s habitability for human civilization.”1
b. According to Ross Gelbspan in the Nation magazine in 2004,
“During the early years of the 1990s, the fossil-fuel lobby insisted
that global warming was not happening. In the face of
incontrovertible findings by the scientific community, the industry
then conceded that climate change is happening but is so
inconsequential as to be negligible. When new findings indicated
that the warming is indeed significant, the spokesmen for the coal
and oil industries then put forth the argument that global warming is
good for us. But the central argument that big coal and big oil have
spent millions of dollars to amplify over the past decade is that the
warming is a natural phenomenon on which human beings have
little or no impact. That argument has been repeatedly discredited
by the world's leading climate scientists. Under the auspices of the
United Nations, more than 2,000 scientists from 100 countries have
participated over the past fifteen years in what is most likely the
largest, most rigorously peer-reviewed scientific collaboration in
history. In 1995 the UN-sponsored panel found a "discernible
human influence" on the planet's warming climate. The scientists
subsequently concluded that to stabilize our climate requires
humanity to cut its use of coal and oil by 70 percent in a very short
time. “2
c. Global Climate Action’s 2007 Energy Outlook states that in the near
future “China needs to add more than 1,300 GW to its electricity
generating capacity; more than the total current installed capacity in
the United States. Coal remains the dominant fuel in power
generation. Coal is the dirtiest fuel possible for greenhouse gases;
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http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/01/opinion/01gore.html?pagewanted=print
http://www.countercurrents.org/cc-gelbspan110804.htm
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the challenge of offsetting the tremendous growth by China, India
and other emerging economies seems insurmountable.
d. It seems insensitive if not immoral to tell emerging economies to
stay “in the dark” rather than contribute to greenhouse gases. After
all, the West used carbon-based energy to build industrial capacity.
Yet, it is likely that the developing countries may well pay an
unequal cost in the impacts of climate change.
e. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has
stated that “Over the next decades, it is predicted that billions of
people, particularly those in developing countries, face shortages of
water and food and greater risks to health and life as a result of
climate change.”3
2. Peak Petroleum – Energy insecurity
a. Most experts agree that humanity has (or within the next few years
will) extracted 50% of the world’s available oil; while in the past the
people worried about running out of oil, it was pointed out that the
real damage begins when the inevitable peak in production occurs,
after which the quantity extracted will steadily shrink, while the cost
of extraction increases. Meanwhile global demand steadily grows.
The current low prices should be disregarded. Oil is a geological
phenomenon and in the scale of history five or ten years is not a n
issue. During the 21st Century there will be major dislocations
based on energy insecurity, unless alternatives are found.
b. The obvious threat is war over oil. Oh, yes…. But that’s already
occurred. While you may still be able to find people who believe
the American Iraq wars, whether Iraq War I, or Iraq War II, were
over Kuwaiti Sovereignty, weapons of mass destruction,
establishing democracy in the Middle East or some other fiction,
anyone with any semblance of clarity in global Real politic knows
the common denominator is OIL; Iraq sits on the 2 nd richest
reserves of oil in the world.
c. The threat to the world is that in the future it may not be only
America that wishes to fight for oil.
3. Water Insecurity
a. While energy insecurity is the most discussed challenge, water
insecurity is equally likely to result in war and conflict in the 21st
Century.
b. Water insecurity is related and aggravated by climate change,
population growth and energy shortages.
c. Key water challenges exist in every continent. China and Asia face
enormous water challenges. In the Middle East, the most populous
nation, Egypt depends on water from one source, the Nile for 81
million people, with population growth expected to continue at a
high pace of almost one and a half million per year. Egypt
recurrently has threatened its riparian neighbors in Africa with war if
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they use water, which is restricted to Egypt and Sudan under the
1929 Treaty on Nile Water Use, which was signed when Egypt was
under British rule.
d. The Jordan River is another hotspot where Israel, Jordan, the
Palestinians, Syria and Lebanon vie for water rights in a parched
environment
Population Growth
a. Over-population and continuing population growth are continuing
exacerbating factors making water, energy and economic
challenges more intense.
b. Populous countries like Egypt has achieved significant structural
and policy changes resulting in sustained economic progress as
measured by GDP growth, yet population growth has resulted in
declining GDP per capita.
Unemployment /social and political instability
a. Unemployment is a direct result of unchecked population growth
and is also impacted by energy (i.e. economic) impacts.
b. Unemployment leads to social instability which leads to political
instability which in turn feeds economic instability, which ultimately
impacts environmental instability, creating a negative feedback
loop.
Nuclear proliferation
a. Many of the old leaders and soldiers from the Cold War between
West and East have almost a nostalgia for those days, which at the
time seemed to threaten instant, any-moment, global Armageddon.
Today the threat is less existential but perhaps more frightening as
proliferation of both materials, know-how and intent make the
prospect of some form of nuclear terrorism almost a matter of
when, not if.
b. Nuclear terrorism is not limited in its threat to Europe or America;
terrorism in recent years has had the most impact on developing
countries; Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, etc.
Biological instability – Epidemics, plagues and killer viruses
a. Scientists predict the imminent rise of super epidemics and it is not
and uncommon view in the scientific community that it is also a
matter of when, not if, a global pandemic brings economic and
social turmoil to the world.
Global Economic Instability
a. Global economic instability is something of a euphemism. It is a
synonym for unimaginable human suffering. Pandemics, energy
shortages, water shortages, global climate change and nuclear or
WMD terrorism are all possible causes of economic instability.
b. Economic instability has played a role historically in the rise of
political extremism, religious extremism, war, and genocide. All the
likely challenges for the 21st century are likely to create economic
instability and suffering.
Economic inequality
a. It isn’t what you do in the world that makes the biggest difference.
It is where and when and to who you are born.
b. There is an old saying. “What is the difference between a
recession and a depression?” A recession is when your neighbor is
unemployed; a depression is when you are unemployed.
Something similar holds true for the world. Many of us judge
whether things are getting better or worse by our own personal
situation. But if we judge by the situation of most of the world it is
very bad. Most people in the world are in bad shape, and the
physical and economic environment is growing worse. It is difficult
to achieve peace and security in the face of massive inequality.
c. Trade liberalization and development initiatives have been
achieving success in reducing inequality; there is no doubt of that.
incomes for huge numbers of people in China and India, the Middle
East, South America, and even Africa have been increasing. But
too many people have been left out, partly due to the fact that there
are too many and growing numbers.
d. And as the world’s poor have mightily endeavored to dig
themselves out of poverty, they have dug themselves into a huge
environmental nightmare. It may well be a nightmare that was
begun by the developed countries, but it is a nightmare that will be
completed by the world’s poor.
The current vulnerabilities to peace and security constitute a ‘perfect storm”. It is
likely that humanity will survive, but it is questionable that human civilization will
survive as we know it today.
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